East-west Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Research Articles

Pleistocene Sunda Shelf submersion-exposure cycles initiate vegetation Walker Circulation feedback

Abstract Recent research has found that the subsiding Sunda Shelf (Southeast Asia) was permanently exposed prior to ca. 400 ka with initial submersion-exposure cyclicity, associated with interglacial-glacial sea-level cycles, beginning between 400 and 240 ka. We analyzed the impact submersion-exposure cycles on regional environment and climate through a 640 k.y. leaf-wax carbon isotope (δ13Cwax) reconstruction at Andaman Sea Site U1448, representing relative changes in C3/C4 plant abundances. Prior to ca. 250 ka, the Sunda region was inhabited by a stable C3 (forest) biome, after which submersion-exposure cycles initiated with the deglacial sea-level rise at ca. 250 ka. During subsequent glacial-age sea-level drops, the newly exposed shelf was rapidly colonized by C4 grasses, followed by slow transitions back to C3 forests, representing a tenfold increase in the variability of C3/C4 vegetation in the Sunda region. The C3/C4 regime shift since 250 ka is coherent across the Southeast (SE) Asia peninsula and Sunda Shelf and is coincident with a shift in the east-west sea-surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that the expansion of C4 grasslands promoted and sustained drier glacial-age climates over SE Asia via a feedback mechanism that contributed to weakening the ascending branch of the east-west atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific region known as the Walker Circulation. Our results indicate that the Sunda Shelf region has a larger influence on Walker Circulation than is seen in current paleoclimate simulations.

The effect of the Pliocene temperature pattern on silicate weathering and Pliocene–Pleistocene cooling

Abstract. The warmer early Pliocene climate featured changes to global sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, namely a reduction in the Equator–pole gradient and the east–west SST gradient in the tropical Pacific, the so-called “permanent El Niño”. Here we investigate the consequences of the SST changes to silicate weathering and thus to atmospheric CO2 on geological timescales. Different SST patterns than today imply regional modifications of the hydrological cycle that directly affect continental silicate weathering in particular over tropical “hotspots” of weathering, such as the Maritime Continent, thus leading to a “weatherability pattern effect”. We explore the impact of Pliocene-like SST changes on weathering using climate model and silicate weathering model simulations, and we deduce CO2 and temperature at carbon cycle equilibrium between solid Earth degassing and silicate weathering. In general, we find large regional increases and decreases in weathering fluxes, and the net effect depends on the extent to which they cancel. Permanent El Niño conditions lead to a small amplification of warming relative to the present day by 0.4 ∘C, suggesting that the demise of the permanent El Niño could have had a small amplifying effect on cooling from the early Pliocene into the Pleistocene. For the reduced Equator–pole gradient, the weathering increases and decreases largely cancel, leading to no detectable difference in global temperature at carbon cycle equilibrium. A robust SST reconstruction of the Pliocene is needed for a quantitative evaluation of the weatherability pattern effect.

Persistent Discrepancies between Observed and Modeled Trends in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract The trends over recent decades in tropical Pacific sea surface and upper ocean temperature are examined in observations-based products, an ocean reanalysis and the latest models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six and the Multimodel Large Ensembles Archive. Comparison is made using three metrics of sea surface temperature (SST) trend—the east–west and north–south SST gradients and a pattern correlation for the equatorial region—as well as change in thermocline depth. It is shown that the latest generation of models persist in not reproducing the observations-based SST trends as a response to radiative forcing and that the latter are at the far edge or beyond the range of modeled internal variability. The observed combination of thermocline shoaling and lack of warming in the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region is similarly at the extreme limit of modeled behavior. The persistence over the last century and a half of the observed trend toward an enhanced east–west SST gradient and, in four of five observed gridded datasets, to an enhanced equatorial north–south SST gradient, is also at the limit of model behavior. It is concluded that it is extremely unlikely that the observed trends are consistent with modeled internal variability. Instead, the results support the argument that the observed trends are a response to radiative forcing in which an enhanced east–west SST gradient and thermocline shoaling are key and that the latest generation of climate models continue to be unable to simulate this aspect of climate change.

Mechanisms responsible for interdecadal variation of the thermodynamic component of East Asian summer monsoon moisture transport

AbstractIn this study, the East Asian summer (June–July–August) monsoon (EASM) atmospheric moisture transport variability under global warming are examined using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The total EASM atmospheric moisture transport is decomposed into the thermodynamic (δTH) and dynamic (δMCD) components, which are related to specific humidity and wind velocity, respectively. Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, both the second and the fourth modes of δTH are linked to δMCD, indicating that δMCD can impact the moisture distribution and consequently influence δTH indirectly. Both the first (δTH_EOF1) and the third (δTH_EOF3) modes of δTH show considerable interdecadal changes. It is noted that their principal components exhibit significant increasing trends in recent decades. The response of EASM moisture transport to global warming is probably reflected in these two modes. δTH_EOF1 is associated with negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This causes the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) to extend westward and the strengthening of Pacific trade winds. As a result, positive precipitable water anomalies dominate East Asia and δTH_EOF1 is characterized by anomalous southwesterly moisture transport along the East China Sea to southern Japan. δTH_EOF3 corresponds to anomalous moisture transport over the Indochina Peninsula and Japan. The precipitable water associated with δTH_EOF3 in general represents a meridional dipole. Anomalous southward wind induced by the eastward extension of the WNPSH is the main reason for positive (negative) precipitable water anomalies in southern (northern) East Asian. The anomalous circulation associated with the anomalous east–west sea surface temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean affects atmospheric moisture in southern East Asian and can dramatically impact δTH_EOF3.

Pliocene decoupling of equatorial Pacific temperature and pH gradients.

Ocean dynamics in the equatorial Pacific drive tropical climate patterns that affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. How this region will respond to global warming has profound implications for global climate, economic stability and ecosystem health. As a result, numerous studies have investigated equatorial Pacific dynamics during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago) and late Miocene (around6 million years ago) as an analogue for thefuture behaviour of the region under global warming1-12. Palaeoceanographic records from this time present an apparent paradox with proxy evidence of a reduced east-west sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Pacific1,3,7,8-indicative of reduced wind-driven upwelling-conflicting with evidence of enhanced biological productivity in the east Pacific13-15 that typically results from stronger upwelling. Here we reconcile these observations by providing new evidence for a radically different-from-modern circulation regime in the early Pliocene/late Miocene16 that results in older, more acidic and more nutrient-rich water reaching the equatorial Pacific. These results provide a mechanism for enhanced productivity in the early Pliocene/late Miocene east Pacific even in the presence of weaker wind-driven upwelling. Our findings shed new light on equatorial Pacific dynamics and help toconstrainthe potential changes they will undergo in the near future, given that the Earth is expected to reach Pliocene-like levels of warming in the next century.

The role of internal variability in multi-decadal trends of summer rainfall over East Asia–Northwest Pacific

The impacts of internal variability on East Asia–Northwest Pacific (EA–NWP) summer rainfall trends on the multidecadal time scale are invested based on three large ensemble simulations, which have ensemble member of 30, 40 and 100. In all the three simulations, the summer rainfall trends during 1970–2005 are remarkably diverse across the individual ensemble members over the EA–NWP, and the signal-to-noise ratio is lower than 1 over the EA–NWP, suggesting a strong impact of internal variability on EA–NWP summer rainfall trends at this interval. Moreover, we found that the diversity of EA–NWP summer rainfall trends across individual members has a similar leading spatial pattern in all the three ensembles, featuring reverse trends between in Mei-yu region and in the tropical NWP. The leading pattern is likely caused by a gradient between the sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and in the tropical western Pacific (WP). When there is a warming trend in the NIO and a cooling trend in the tropical WP, a low-level anomalous anticyclone strengthens over the subtropical NWP, causing a dipole rainfall trend over the EA–NWP. The impact of the east–west SST gradient pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments. Our findings highlight that the internally-generated gradient of NIO–WP SST trends is an important source of the uncertainty in EA–NWP summer rainfall decadal changes in simulations.

Distinct atmosphere-ocean coupling processes on the onset phase of Indian summer monsoon during 2017 and 2018 as revealed through SCATSAT-1 and its comparison with CFSv2

ABSTRACT Distinct atmosphere-ocean coupled processes determine the inter-annual variability in the onset processes of Indian Summer Monsoon. In this work, we have analysed the distinct characteristics of onset process during 2017 (MOK17) and 2018 (MOK18) using SCATSAT-1 observations. Two years of dedicated SCATSAT-1 analysed winds and other flux datasets are used to understand distinct-coupled processes and further compared with coupled model forecasts from National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Air-sea coupled mechanism during 2017 and 2018 suggests that there is a delayed response (about one pentad) of atmosphere-ocean coupling over North Indian Ocean on the monsoon onset and its propagation during 2018. It is found that the influence of cyclone Mekunu formed over Western Arabian Sea disturbed the onset vortex formed over Eastern Arabian Sea during MOK18. The presence of cyclone Mekunu results in a sudden spike of East-west Sea Surface Temperature gradient, Latent Heat Flux and wind stress over Arabian Sea during one pentad before monsoon onset over Kerala. This created an onset like situation in the next pentad, and later the conditions are not favoured for the further progress of the monsoon. It leads to a weak onset followed by a sluggish and halted northward progression of monsoon during 2018. In the absence of a cyclonic system during the onset phase of MOK17, conventional onset and its further progress took place during 2017. Further comparison of SCATSAT-1 and other analysed data sets with the CFSv2 model show that the CFSv2 model is able to capture the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes during the onset phase up to four pentads in advance during MOK17. However, due to the presence of Mekunu cyclone before the monsoon onset limited the forecast skill of CFSv2 only up to two pentads in advance during MOK18. We found that the presence of strong convective instability due to strong synoptic-scale system can influence the skill of coupled model forecast in the extended range. The new SCATSAT-1 observations provide high-quality observations that can be used to quantify the errors and identify common biases in the coupled models.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called “richest-get-richer” mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east–west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Andean elevation control on tropical Pacific climate and ENSO

Late Cenozoic marine proxy data record a long-term transition in the tropical Pacific from El Nino-like conditions with reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, deepened thermocline, and reduced upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to conditions similar to modern. This transition coincides with kilometer-scale uplift of the central Andes. To understand whether the rise of the Andes contributed to tropical Pacific climate evolution, we performed experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 to quantify changes in tropical Pacific climate and El Nino–Southern Oscillation as a function of Andean elevations. Our results demonstrate that uplift increases the equatorial east-west SST gradient and Walker circulation. The rise of the Andes from 1 to 3 km increases the SST gradient by 0.8°C and Walker circulation by 60% due to strengthened radiative cooling by enhanced low-cloud formation in the EEP. This cooling effect is largest in the southeastern tropical Pacific and accounts for about one half of the reconstructed SST cooling along the Peru coast. The uplift also strengthens upwelling north of the EEP, consistent with documented increases in biological productivity in this region, and decreases the frequency of El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the number of strong El Nino events. Simulated responses to Andean uplift are generally consistent with the late Cenozoic proxy records, but too small in magnitude. Taken together, our results indicate that Andean uplift was likely one of the multiple factors that contributed to the long-term evolution of both the mean climate state and the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific.

What Controls the Mean East–West Sea Surface Temperature Gradient in the Equatorial Pacific: The Role of Cloud Albedo

Abstract The mean east–west sea surface temperature gradient along the equator is a key feature of tropical climate. Tightly coupled to the atmospheric Walker circulation and the oceanic east–west thermocline tilt, it effectively defines tropical climate conditions. In the Pacific, its presence permits the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon. What determines this temperature gradient within the fully coupled ocean–atmosphere system is therefore a central question in climate dynamics, critical for understanding past and future climates. Using a comprehensive coupled model [Community Earth System Model (CESM)], the authors demonstrate how the meridional gradient in cloud albedo between the tropics and midlatitudes (Δα) sets the mean east–west sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific. To change Δα in the numerical experiments, the authors change the optical properties of clouds by modifying the atmospheric water path, but only in the shortwave radiation scheme of the model. When Δα is varied from approximately −0.15 to 0.1, the east–west SST contrast in the equatorial Pacific reduces from 7.5°C to less than 1°C and the Walker circulation nearly collapses. These experiments reveal a near-linear dependence between Δα and the zonal temperature gradient, which generally agrees with results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control simulations. The authors explain the close relation between the two variables using an energy balance model incorporating the essential dynamics of the warm pool, cold tongue, and Walker circulation complex.

Observational evidences of Walker circulation change over the last 30 years contrasting with GCM results

In order to examine the changes in Walker circulation over the recent decades, we analyzed the sea surface temperature (SST), deep convective activities, upper tropospheric moistening, sea level pressure (SLP), and effective wind in the boundary layer over the 30-year period of 1979–2008. The analysis showed that the eastern tropical Pacific has undergone cooling while the western Pacific has undergone warming over the past three decades, causing an increase in the east–west SST gradient. It is indicated that the tropical atmosphere should have responded to these SST changes; increased deep convective activities and associated upper tropospheric moistening over the western Pacific ascending region, increased SLP over the eastern Pacific descending region in contrast to decreased SLP over the western Pacific ascending region, and enhanced easterly wind in the boundary layer in response to the SLP change. These variations, recognized from different data sets, occur in tandem with each other, strongly supporting the intensified Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Since the SST trend was attributed to more frequent occurrences of central Pacific-type El Nino in recent decades, it is suggested that the decadal variation of El Nino caused the intensified Walker circulation over the past 30 years. An analysis of current climate models shows that model results deviate greatly from the observed intensified Walker circulation. The uncertainties in the current climate models may be due to the natural variability dominating the forced signal over the tropical Pacific during the last three decades in the twentieth century climate scenario runs by CMIP3 CGCMs.

Spring asymmetric mode in the tropical Indian Ocean: role of El Niño and IOD

The spring asymmetric mode over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is characterized by contrasting patterns of rainfall and surface wind anomalies north and south of Equator. The asymmetric pattern in rainfall has evolved as a leading mode of variability in the TIO and is strongly correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The evolution of the asymmetric pattern in rainfall and surface wind during pure El Nino/IOD and co-occurrence years are examined in the twentieth century reanalysis for the period of 1871–2008 and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The study revealed that spring asymmetric mode is well developed when El Nino co-occurred with IOD (positive) and is driven by the associated meridional gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP). The pure El Nino composites are characterized by homogeneous (spatially) SST anomalies (positive) and weaker SLP gradients and convection, leading to weak asymmetric mode. The asymmetric mode is absent in the pure IOD (positive) composites due to the persistence of east west SST gradient for a longer duration than the co-occurrence years. The meridional gradient in SST anomalies over the TIO associated with the ENSO-IOD forcing is therefore crucial in developing/strengthening the spring asymmetric mode. The northwest Pacific anticyclonic circulation further strengthen the asymmetric mode in surface winds by inducing northeasterlies in the north Indian Ocean during pure El Nino and co-occurrence years. The simulations based on AGCM, forced by observed SSTs during the period of 1871–2000 supported the findings. The analysis of available station and ship track data further strengthens our results.

The Indian Ocean’s asymmetric effect on the coupling of the Northwest Pacific SST and anticyclone anomalies during its spring–summer transition after El Niño

By comparing different climatologies in El Nino decaying summer with regard to the presence of Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) warming, we studied the effect of IOB warming on the Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the coupling process with the surface wind. Zonal asymmetric coupling feedback in the west and east of the Northwest Pacific were caused by the asymmetric spring–summer transition of the background tropical atmospheric circulation. Although the westward wind anomaly caused by the remote effect of IOB warming is found in the whole Northwest Pacific, reversal of the mean background surface winds in the western part leads to negative wind-evaporation SST (WES), whereas sustained trade winds lead to positive WES in the eastern part. The east–west SST gradient resulting from this zonal asymmetric evolution of SST sets off more positive feedback that strengthens the local anticyclone easterly anomalies.

Response of the tropical Pacific to changes in extratropical clouds

A decrease in cloud cover over higher latitudes—a decrease in the extratropical albedo—especially over the Southern Ocean, can result in an extratropical and tropical warming with the intensity of the equatorial cold tongues in the Pacific and Atlantic basins decreasing. These results, obtained by means of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity that allow the prescription of atmospheric cloud cover, are relevant to future global warming, and also to conditions during the Pliocene some 3 million years ago. The mechanisms responsible for the response of the tropics to changes in the extra-tropics include atmospheric and oceanic connections. This tropical adjustment can be interpreted from the constraint of a balanced heat budget for the ocean: A change in the albedo of the Southern Hemisphere causes the ocean to lose less heat there, so that it has to gain less heat in the tropics. As a consequence the cold tongues are reduced, particularly in the eastern Pacific where a decrease in the zonal tilt of the equatorial thermocline significantly weakens the east-west sea surface temperature gradient. The total adjustment time scale of the equatorial Pacific to the extratropical perturbation is of the order of interdecadal to centennial time scales, and thus represents a new mechanism of rapid climate change.

Cool La Niña During the Warmth of the Pliocene?

The role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in greenhouse warming and climate change remains controversial. During the warmth of the early-mid Pliocene, we find evidence for enhanced thermocline tilt and cold upwelling in the equatorial Pacific, consistent with the prevalence of a La Niña-like state, rather than the proposed persistent warm El Niño-like conditions. Our Pliocene paleothermometer supports the idea of a dynamic "ocean thermostat" in which heating of the tropical Pacific leads to a cooling of the east equatorial Pacific and a La Niña-like state, analogous to observations of a transient increasing east-west sea surface temperature gradient in the 20th-century tropical Pacific.

The Sensitivity of a Coupled Atmospheric–Oceanic GCM to Prescribed Low-Level Clouds over the Ocean and Tropical Landmasses

The sensitivity of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to tropical marine stratocumulus (MSc) clouds and low-level clouds over the tropical land is examined. The hypothesis that low-level clouds play an important role in determining the strength and position of the Walker circulation and also on the strength and phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) experimental prediction CGCM. In the Tropics, a GFDL experimental prediction CGCM exhibits a strong bias in the western Pacific where an eastward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation diminishes the strength and expanse of the sea surface temperature (SST) warm pool, thereby reducing the east-west SST gradient, and effectively weakening the trade winds. These model features are evidence of a poorly simulated Walker circulation, one that mirrors a ''perpetual El Nino'' state. One possible factor contributing to this bias is a poor simulation of MSc clouds in the eastern equatorial Pacific (which are essential to a proper SST annual cycle). Another possible contributing factor might be radiative heating biases over the land in the Tropics, which could, in turn, have a significant impact on the preferred locations of maximum convection in the Tropics. As a means of studying the sensitivity of a CGCM to both MSc clouds and to varied radiative forcing over the land in the Tropics, low-level clouds obtained from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are prescribed. The experiment sets consist of one where clouds are fully predicted, another where ISCCP low- level clouds are prescribed over the oceans alone, and a third where ISCCP low-level clouds are prescribed both over the global oceans and over the tropical landmasses. A set of ten 12-month hindcasts is performed for each experiment. The results show that the combined prescription of interannually varying global ocean and climatological tropical land low-level clouds into the CGCM results in a much improved simulation of the Walker circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The improvement to the tropical circulation was also notable over the Indian and Atlantic basins as well. These improvements in circulation led to a considerable increase in ENSO hindcast skill in the first year by the CGCM. These enhancements were a function of both the presence of MSc clouds over the tropical oceans and were also due to the more realistic positioning of the regions of maximum convection in the Tropics. This latter model feature was essentially a response to the change in radiative forcing over tropical landmasses associated with a reduction in low cloud fraction and optical depth when ISCCP low-level clouds were prescribed there. These results not only underscore the importance of a reasonable representation of MSc clouds but also point out the considerable impact that radiative forcing over the tropical landmasses has on the simulated position of the Walker circulation and also on ENSO forecasting.

Rapid changes in ocean circulation and heat flux in the Nordic seas during the last interglacial period

THE apparent similarity of climate variability in the North Atlantic region in the last interglacial period1–5 and the present interglacial (Holocene) has recently been challenged by the rapid oscillations in climate conditions indicated by some marine6,7 and terrestrial climate records8–10 for the last interglacial. Ocean circulation in the northern North Atlantic seems to be intimately coupled to the processes of climate change on various time-scales11,12, so that climate variability—and the associated mechanisms of change—should be well recorded by sediments from these high latitudes. Previous studies in this region5,13 have indeed indicated an apparently less stable last-interglacial climate than at middle latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean4. Here we present detailed records from marine sediments in the Nordic seas of oceanographic conditions during the last interglacial. The records show three large sea surface temperature fluctuations, a weakening of the east–west sea surface temperature gradient with time, and changes in deep-water properties. In contrast, similar analyses of a core from the same region indicate that sea surface temperature during the Holocene has been relatively stable. Our data—along with those from the Labrador Sea7—indicate rapid changes in ocean circulation and oceanic heat fluxes at high northern latitudes during the last interglacial, which may have been associated with marked temperature changes on adjacent continents.

Seasonality in the Associations between Surface Temperatures over the United States and the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract Thirty-one years of monthly data are used to evaluate the seasonal dependence of the associations between large-scale temperature anomalies over the United States and the North Pacific Ocean. Both station (grid-point) values and empirical orthogonal functions of temperature are used in the correlative analysis. The North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies correlate most highly with temperature fluctuations over the southeastern and the far western states. Correlations with the SST anomalies have opposite signs in the two portions of the United States. The associations with the SST anomalies are independent of season only in the western states. The association involving the southeastern states is strongest during the winter and insignificant during the summer. The pattern of North Pacific SST that correlates most highly with the United States temperature is an east-west SST gradient between the West Coast and 35°N, 160°W. Statistically significant fractions of temperature variance ove...