East Australian Current Separation Research Articles

What Causes the Subsurface Velocity Maximum of the East Australian Current?

Abstract The East Australian Current (EAC) system includes a poleward jet that flows adjacent to the continental shelf, a southward and eastward extension, and a complex eddy field. The EAC jet is often observed to be subsurface intensified. Here, we explain that there are two factors that cause the EAC to develop a subsurface maximum. First, the EAC flows as a narrow current, carrying low-density water from the Coral Sea into the denser waters of the Tasman Sea. This results in horizontal density gradients with a different sign on either side of the jet, negative onshore and positive offshore. According to the thermal wind relation, this produces vertical gradients in southward current that are surface intensified onshore and subsurface intensified offshore. Second, we show that the winds over the shelf are mostly downwelling favorable, drawing the surface EAC waters onshore. This aligns the region of positive horizontal density gradients with the EAC core, producing a subsurface velocity maximum. The presence of a subsurface maximum may produce baroclinic instabilities that play a role in eddy formation and EAC separation from the coast. Significance Statement Observations of the East Australian Current (EAC) show that the strongest currents are often below the surface at about 100-m depth. Two factors cause this subsurface maximum. First, because the EAC is a narrow jet, carrying warm water southward from the Coral Sea, the density gradient across the jet changes sign, causing surface-intensified currents onshore and subsurface-intensified currents offshore. Second, the wind field over the shelf often pulls the shallow waters shoreward, shifting the waters that cause subsurface intensification to align with the center of the jet, resulting in a subsurface maximum of the EAC. This process may be responsible for the generation of eddies in the Tasman Sea.

Mesoscale Circulation Controls Chlorophyll Concentrations in the East Australian Current Separation Zone

AbstractUnderstanding the distribution of chlorophyll on the continental shelves adjacent to western boundary currents is important, both from an ecosystem perspective, as well as for their role as a net sink of atmospheric CO2. However, in‐situ observations of chlorophyll in these dynamic regions are rare. Here, using more than a decade of underwater glider observations from 29 deployments in the East Australian Current (EAC) system, we examine the effect of the mesoscale western boundary current (WBC) circulation on chlorophyll distribution across the shelf. The extensive hydrographic dataset reveals that the mode of boundary current separation has a strong persistent spatial influence on both the stratification and chlorophyll distribution on the shelf between 31.5° and 34°S, a productive area adjacent to the EAC separation zone. We identify that subsurface chlorophyll maxima are common, and their depth and strength is dictated by the offshore mesoscale circulation associated with the WBC separation. The vertical chlorophyll distribution is modulated by the combination of the seasonal cycle and the sporadic influence of mesoscale eddies associated with WBC jet separation. Of the three dominant WBC separation scenarios, eddy dipoles result in shelf waters that are on average more stratified, have higher chlorophyll values, and a deeper chlorophyll maximum compared to other circulation modes. These results suggest that it is necessary to consider the influence of WBC dynamics on chlorophyll concentrations for accurate estimates of atmospheric CO2 uptake.

Vertically Resolved Pelagic Particle Biomass and Size Structure Across a Continental Shelf Under the Influence of a Western Boundary Current

AbstractContinental shelves are key to societal interactions with the oceans, supporting >90% of the world's fisheries through highly productive ecosystems. Previous research has shown that phytoplankton biomass is generally higher on the inner continental shelves, often due to increased nutrient inputs from upwelling or coastal run‐off. However, consistency in observed vertical and horizontal gradients (in abundance, biomass or size) of larger particulates, including zooplankton, on continental shelves has not been established. Using an optical plankton counter and CTD mounted on an undulating towed body, we present high‐resolution vertically resolved profiles of pelagic particle size structure across a continental shelf. Biomass was highest inshore, declining with distance from shore and with depth in the top 100 m of the water column, although the presence of frontal zones can alter this pattern. In the region adjacent to the East Australian Current (EAC), uplift generated by either the EAC interacting with the continental slope or upwelling‐favorable winds, correlated with smaller geometric mean sizes and steeper size spectrum slopes, particularly in the presence of frontal features. South of the EAC separation, the continental shelf water mass was more homogenous but still displayed the same horizontal and vertical patterns in particulate biomass and mean size. By combining our observations in a global comparison, we demonstrate consistent particulate distributions on continental shelves where the inner shelf has higher biomass with a steeper size spectrum slope compared to offshore. The highly productive inner shelf supports zooplankton communities vital to temperate ecosystems and coastal fisheries, through their consistently high biomass.

Mesoscale oceanographic features drive divergent patterns in connectivity for co‐occurring estuarine portunid crabs

AbstractLarval dispersal and connectivity have important implications for fisheries management, especially for species with life cycles influenced by ocean boundary currents. Giant Mud Crab (Scylla serrata) and Blue Swimmer Crab (Portunus armatus) are two estuarine portunid crabs (Family: Portunidae) that support significant commercial and recreational harvest in eastern Australia. Giant Mud Crab migrate to coastal waters to spawn, and while Blue Swimmer Crab spawn primarily within estuaries they occasionally migrate to coastal waters to spawn, followed by larval dispersal in the East Australian Current (EAC). Here, we coupled a high‐resolution oceanographic model with a Lagrangian particle tracking framework to simulate larval dispersal and determine the extent of population connectivity in this region. Our simulations indicate broad‐scale connectivity (~40–400 km), characterised by high inter‐estuary connectivity. Overall, our results suggest a north‐to‐south source‐sink structure for both species, with contributions of particles from the north ranging from 51% to 99%. Recruitment to a given estuary is dependent on the proximity of mesoscale oceanographic features of the EAC. Most notably, the EAC separation acts as a barrier to recruitment between spawning and settlement to the north/south of this region. This significantly limits interjurisdictional connectivity for these species, especially Blue Swimmer Crab, likely due to a shorter pelagic larval duration than Giant Mud Crab. Our results provide evidence to inform the assessment and management of these species.

Shelf Transport Pathways Adjacent to the East Australian Current Reveal Sources of Productivity for Coastal Reefs

The region where the East Australian Current (EAC) separates from the coast is dynamic and the shelf circulation is impacted by the interplay of the western boundary current and its eddy field with the coastal ocean. This interaction can drive upwelling, retention or export. Hence understanding the connection between offshore waters and the inner shelf is needed as it influences the productivity potential of valuable coastal rocky reefs. Near urban centres, artificial reefs enhance fishing opportunities in coastal waters, however these reefs are located without consideration of the productivity potential of adjacent waters. Here we identify three dominant modes of mesoscale circulation in the EAC separation region (~31.5−34.5°S); the ‘EAC mode’ which dominates the flow in the poleward direction, and two eddy modes, the ‘EAC eddy mode’ and the ‘Eddy dipole mode’, which are determined by the configuration of a cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy and the relationship with the separated EAC jet. We use a Lagrangian approach to reveal the transport pathways across the shelf to understand the impact of the mesoscale circulation modes and to explore the productivity potential of the coastal waters. We investigate the origin (position and depth) of the water that arrives at the inner-mid shelf over a 21-day period (the plankton productivity timescale). We show that the proportion of water that is upwelled from below the euphotic zone varies spatially, and with each mesoscale circulation mode. Additionally, shelf transport timescales and pathways are also impacted by the mesoscale circulation. The highest proportion of upwelling (70%) occurs upstream of 32.5°S, associated with the EAC jet separation, with vertical displacements of 70–120 m. From 33 to 33.5°S, water comes from offshore above the euphotic layer, and shelf transport timescales are longest. The region of highest retention over the inner shelf is immediately downstream of the EAC separation region. The position of the EAC jet and the location of the cyclonic eddy determines the variability in shelf-ocean interactions and the productivity of shelf waters. These results are useful for understanding productivity of temperate rocky reefs in general and specifically for fisheries enhancements along an increasingly urbanised coast.

Transport variability over the Hawkesbury Shelf (31.5-34.5°S) driven by the East Australian Current.

The Hawkesbury Bioregion located off southeastern Australia (31.5–34.5oS) is a region of highly variable circulation. The region spans the typical separation point of the East Australian Current (EAC), the western boundary current that dominates the flow along the coast of SE Australia. It lies adjacent to a known ocean warming hotspot in the Tasman Sea, and is a region of high productivity. However, we have limited understanding of the circulation, temperature regimes and shelf transport in this region, and the drivers of variability. We configure a high resolution (750m) numerical model for the Hawkesbury Shelf region nested inside 2 data assimilating models of decreasing resolution, to obtain the best estimate of the shelf circulation and transport over a 2-yr period (2012–2013). Here we show that the transport is driven by the mesoscale EAC circulation that strengthens in summer and is related to the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. Transport estimates show strong offshore export is a maximum between 32-33oS. Median offshore transports range 2.5–8.4Sv seasonally and are a maximum during in summer driven by the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. The transport is more variable downstream of the EAC separation, driven by the EAC eddy field. Onshore transport occurs more frequently off Sydney 33.5–34.5oS; seasonal medians range -1.7 to 2.3Sv, with an onshore maximum in winter. The region is biologically productive, and it is a known white shark nursery area despite the dominance of the oligotrophic western boundary current. Hence an understanding of the drivers of circulation and cross-shelf exchange is important.

Quantitative Mapping of the East Australian Current Encroachment Using Time Series Himawari‐8 Sea Surface Temperature Data

AbstractThe East Australian Current (EAC) is a highly dynamic western boundary current that exerts significant influences on the marine ecosystem off southeast margin of Australia. For the first time, a quantitative mapping of the EAC system was conducted using Himawari‐8 sea surface temperature data and a Topographic Position Index (TPI)‐based image processing technique. The validation using Bluelink ReANalysis data suggested good reliability of our mapping results. Subsequent quantitative examination provides new insights into the EAC's cross‐shelf movement which is a driving force of adjacent slope‐shelf circulations. Along the coast of New South Wales (NSW), large‐scale and high‐frequency EAC encroachment was observed, being every 60–80 days upstream (30–32°S) and every 90–100 days downstream (33–35°S), which is associated with the EAC's intrinsic oscillation and eddy shedding. Downstream, the EAC encroachment exhibits a 20‐day longer period and a double amplitude. Such dephasing is most likely due to the abrupt change of regime at the EAC separation point (32–33°S). Upstream, the EAC encroachment also exhibits seasonality, being 10–15 km closer to the coast in austral summer, which is due to the seasonal EAC broadening. Higher‐frequency (16–32 days) and smaller‐magnitude EAC intrusion was observed along the entire NSW coast (28–37°S), which is possibly associated with EAC's meanders and frontal eddies. In the extension zone (37.30–44°S), we observed maximum EAC encroachment in summer, which is an expression of the seasonal boundary flow off eastern Tasmania. A data set of EAC encroachment (2015–2017) is available (see Data Availability Statement).

Observations of Submesoscale Variability and Frontal Subduction within the Mesoscale Eddy Field of the Tasman Sea

AbstractSubmesoscale lenses of water with anomalous hydrographic properties have previously been observed in the East Australian Current (EAC) system, embedded within the thermocline of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies. The waters within these lenses have high oxygen content and temperature–salinity properties that signify a surface origin. However, it is not known how these lenses form. This study presents field observations that provide insight into a possible generation mechanism via subduction at upper-ocean fronts. High-resolution hydrographic and velocity measurements of submesoscale activity were taken across a front between a mesoscale eddy dipole downstream of the EAC separation point. The front had O(1) Rossby number, strong vertical shear, and flow conducive to symmetric instability. Frontogenesis was measured in conjunction with subduction of an anticyclonic water parcel, indicative of intrathermocline eddy formation. Twenty-five years of satellite imagery reveals the existence of strong mesoscale strain coupled with strong temperature fronts in this region and indicates the conditions that led to frontal subduction observed here are a persistent feature. These processes impact the vertical export of tracers from the surface and dissipation of mesoscale kinetic energy, implicating their importance for understanding regional ocean circulation and biological productivity.

Eddy‐Driven Cross‐Shelf Transport in the East Australian Current Separation Zone

AbstractIn western boundary current systems, sharp velocity gradients between the poleward flowing jet and coastal waters generally act to inhibit cross‐shelf exchange. Downstream of jet separation, dynamic mesoscale eddies dominate the flow. In the East Australian Current System, counter‐rotating eddy dipoles are often present which, in the appropriate configuration, have potential to drive cross‐shelf transport. However, this eddy dipole mode is poorly understood in the framework of cross‐shelf exchange and the effect of these structures on shelf waters is uncertain. Using 25 years of satellite altimetry, as well as in situ sampling of a typical dipole event, we investigate the characteristics of eddy‐driven cross‐shelf exchange. We show that the maximum onshore velocity is driven by an eddy dipole structure and occurs in a defined latitudinal band between 33°S and 34°S more than 50% of the time. We sample a typical eddy dipole and find a strong onshore jet, 37 km wide, with velocities up to 1.78 m s and a transport of at least 16 Sv. Hydrographic data from an autonomous underwater glider show that this jet manifests on the shelf as a subsurface intrusion of warm salty water extending from offshore up onto the midshelf. In the light of climatic changes in western boundary current transport and the increase in their eddy kinetic energy, understanding eddy‐driven cross‐shelf exchange is important to predict future changes to the shelf water mass.

The Role of the New Zealand Plateau in the Tasman Sea Circulation and Separation of the East Australian Current

AbstractThe East Australian Current (EAC) plays a major role in regional climate, circulation, and ecosystems, but predicting future changes is hampered by limited understanding of the factors controlling EAC separation. While there has been speculation that the presence of New Zealand may be important for the EAC separation, the prevailing view is that the time‐mean partial separation is set by the ocean's response to gradients in the wind stress curl. This study focuses on the role of New Zealand, and the associated adjacent bathymetry, in the partial separation of the EAC and ocean circulation in the Tasman Sea. Here utilizing an eddy‐permitting ocean model (NEMO), we find that the complete removal of the New Zealand plateau leads to a smaller fraction of EAC transport heading east and more heading south, with the mean separation latitude shifting >100 km southward. To examine the underlying dynamics, we remove New Zealand with two linear models: the Sverdrup/Godfrey Island Rule and NEMO in linear mode. We find that linear processes and deep bathymetry play a major role in the mean Tasman Front position, whereas nonlinear processes are crucial for the extent of the EAC retroflection. Contrary to past work, we find that meridional gradients in the basin‐wide wind stress curl are not the sole factor determining the latitude of EAC separation. We suggest that the Tasman Front location is set by either the maximum meridional gradient in the wind stress curl or the northern tip of New Zealand, whichever is furthest north.

Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current

AbstractThe East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy‐permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time‐mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy‐permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies.

On the Variability of the East Australian Current: Jet Structure, Meandering, and Influence on Shelf Circulation

AbstractGiven the importance of western boundary currents over a wide range of scales in the ocean, it is crucial that we understand their dynamics to accurately predict future changes. For this, we need detailed knowledge of their structure and variability. Here we investigate the jet structure of the East Australian Current (EAC), using observations from HF radars and moorings deployed at 30°S–31°S. Meandering, core velocity, width, and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) are quantified from 4 years of hourly 1.5 km resolution surface current maps (2012–2016), to obtain the most detailed representation of the surface EAC jet to date. The EAC flows predominantly over the ∼1,500 m isobath 50 km offshore but makes large amplitude displacements eastward every 65–100 days—the time scale associated with mesoscale eddy shedding at the EAC separation. Smaller‐amplitude, higher‐frequency meanders occur every 20–45 days. Using a coordinate frame that follows the jet, we show core velocity and EKE exhibit seasonality in both magnitude and variance, being maximum in summer (1.55 m s−1 mean core velocity), minimum in winter (0.8 m s−1). However, it is the eddy‐shedding time scale that dominates jet variability. As the EAC moves shoreward, shelf temperature and along‐stream velocity vary linearly with jet movement, within ∼35 km of the core. The EAC is within this range 75% of the time, demonstrating its importance to the shelf circulation. Temperature and velocity fluctuations at the 70 m (100 m) isobath are more influenced by wind (EAC encroachment), with the strongest response occurring when wind and EAC act constructively.

Physical and biogeochemical spatial scales of variability in the East Australian Current separation from shelf glider measurements

Abstract. In contrast to physical processes, biogeochemical processes are inherently patchy in the ocean, which affects both the observational sampling strategy and the representativeness of sparse measurements in data assimilating models. In situ observations from multiple glider deployments are analysed to characterize spatial scales of variability in both physical and biogeochemical properties, using an empirical statistical model. We find that decorrelation ranges are strongly dependent on the balance between local dynamics and mesoscale forcing. The shortest horizontal (5–10 km) and vertical (45 m) decorrelation ranges are for chlorophyll a fluorescence, whereas those variables that are a function of regional ocean and atmosphere dynamics (temperature and dissolved oxygen) result in anisotropic patterns with longer ranges along (28–37 km) than across the shelf (8–19 km). Variables affected by coastal processes (salinity and coloured dissolved organic matter) have an isotropic range similar to the baroclinic Rossby radius (10–15 km).

The formation of a cold-core eddy in the East Australian Current

Cold-core eddies (CCEs) frequently form in western boundary currents and can affect continental shelf processes. It is not always clear, however, if baroclinic or barotropic instabilities contribute more to their formation. The Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) is used to investigate the ocean state during the formation of a CCE in the East Australian Current (EAC) during October 2009. The observed eddy initially appeared as a small billow (approx. 50km in length) that perturbed the landward edge of the EAC. The billow grew into a mesoscale CCE (approx. 100km in diameter), diverting the EAC around it. A ROMS simulation with a realistic wind field reproduced a similar eddy. This eddy formed from negative vorticity waters found on the continental shelf south of the EAC separation point. A sensitivity analysis is performed whereby the impact of 3 different wind forcing scenarios, upwelling, downwelling, and no winds, are investigated. A CCE formed in all wind scenarios despite the wind induced changes in hydrographic conditions in the continental shelf and slope waters. As such, the source of energy for eddy formation did not come from the interactions of wind with the continental shelf waters. Analysis of strain and energy transformation confirms this by showing that the prevailing source of CCE energy was kinetic energy of the offshore EAC. These results clearly link the formation of the CCE to the swift flowing EAC and barotropic instabilities.

Seasonal variability in the continental shelf waters off southeastern Australia: Fact or fiction?

Seasonality is an important timescale driving variability in the waters of many continental shelf regions globally. Along the east coast of Australia, it has been recognised that the East Australian Current (EAC), the Western boundary current (WBC) of the South Pacific gyre, warms and strengthens in the Austral summer. Thus it has been hypothesised that shelf currents also warm and strengthen (poleward) annually. However, the EACs highly dynamic nature results in large variations in the latitude of separation from the coast and eddy shedding. Until recently the lack of long term in-situ observations on the shelf has precluded a study into low frequency (seasonal) variability in shelf circulation. Using at least 3 years of moored in situ temperature and velocity observations we investigate low frequency variability in shelf waters at 2 cross-shelf locations (i) upstream and (ii) downstream of the typical EAC separation latitude. The local winds vary bi-modally upstream and tri-modally downstream varying with the passage of fronts, thus do not drive a seasonal response in the circulation. Harmonic analysis of the velocity and temperature fields shows that upstream of the separation zone, only 6% of the velocity variability occurs on the seasonal timescale, compared to 49% of the temperature variability. Cross shelf temperature gradients and vertical velocity shear increase in summer with an increase in poleward heat advection in the EAC. Downstream of the separation point the influence of episodic eddy encroachments precludes seasonality in the vertical structure of the flow despite an annual cycle in the stratification. The seasonal cycle in temperature moves out of phase with increasing depths, with maxima (minima) in March (September) at 30m compared to maxima (minima) in May (November) at the bottom. This is expected to have a large influence on the timing of nutrient injection onto the shelf, and thus phytoplankton species composition and abundance.

Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate

AbstractThe Tasman Sea is a hot spot of ocean warming, that is linked to the increased poleward influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) over recent decades. Specifically, the EAC produces mesoscale eddies which have significant impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Tasman Sea. To effectively consider and explain potential eddy changes in the next 50 years, we use high‐resolution dynamically downscaled climate change simulations to characterize the projected future marine climate and mesoscale eddies in the Tasman Sea through the 2060s. We assess changes in the marine climate and the eddy field using bulk statistics and by detecting and tracking individual eddies. We find that the eddy kinetic energy is projected to increase along southeast Australia. In addition, we find that eddies in the projected future climate are composed of a higher proportion of anticyclonic eddies in this region and that these eddies are longer lived and more stable. This amounts to nearly a doubling of eddy‐related southward temperature transport in the upper 200 m of the Tasman Sea. These changes are concurrent with increases in baroclinic and barotropic instabilities focused around the EAC separation point. This poleward transport and increase in eddy activity would be expected to also increase the frequency of sudden warming events, including ocean temperature extremes, with potential impacts on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and biodiversity off Tasmania's east coast, through direct warming or competition/predation from invasive migrating species.

Comparison of EnOI and EnKF regional ocean reanalysis systems

This study compares two regional eddy resolving ocean reanalysis systems, based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI), focusing on data assimilation aspects. Both systems are configured for the Tasman Sea using the same ocean model with 0.1° resolution and commonly available observations of satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature and subsurface temperature and salinity. The primary goals are to quantify the difference in performance of the EnKF and EnOI and investigate how important this difference might be from an oceanographic perspective. We find that both systems generally constrain mesoscale circulation in the region, with some exceptions for the East Australian Current separation region, the most energetic and chaotic part of the domain. Overall, the EnKF is found to consistently outperform the EnOI, producing on average 9–21% smaller innovations. The EnKF also has better forecast skill relative to the persisted analysis than the EnOI. For SST the EnKF forecast outperforms persisted analysis by about 17%, which indicates that the surface circulation is mainly constrained. The EnKF and EnOI are shown to produce qualitatively different increments of unobserved or sparsely observed variables; however, we find only moderate improvements of the EnKF over EnOI in subsurface temperature fields when compared against withheld XBT observations. We attribute this lack of a major improvement in subsurface reconstruction to the inability of the EnKF to linearly constrain the system due to initialisation shock, model error caused by open boundaries, and possibly insufficient observations.

Influence of a western boundary current on shelf dynamics and upwelling from repeat glider deployments

The separation zone of a dynamically important western boundary current (WBC) is resolved through a series of sustained glider deployments along the coastal edge of the jet. The comprehensive data set from 23 missions (2008–2014) provides a new high-resolution hydrographic climatology which is exploited to understand the spatial extent of dense water uplift and the depth-averaged momentum balances across the East Australian Current (EAC) separation zone. The predominantly geostrophic shelf circulation and temperature fields are least (most) variable upstream (downstream), where encroachment (separation) dominates. For the first time we resolve the nonlinear advection terms which are considerable in the along-shelf momentum balance. Near bottom water masses indicate dense water uplift, as a result of the EAC encroachment and separation. The data provide both new insight into and a climatology of separation-induced uplift and demonstrate a successful model for repeat glider missions in a dynamic WBC environment.

Interactions between seasonality and oceanic forcing drive the phytoplankton variability in the tropical-temperate transition zone (~ 30°S) of Eastern Australia

The East Australian Current (EAC) has been shown to be warming rapidly, which is expected to cause latitudinal shifts in phytoplankton abundance, distribution and composition along the east Australian coast. Yet a lack of phytoplankton information exists northward of 34°S. Here, we provide the first detailed taxonomic time-series survey (monthly sampling for about one annual cycle, 2011–2012) in the east Australian tropical-temperate transition zone (~30°S, upstream of the EAC separation point at ~31–32°S). All phytoplankton (categorised depending on their association with specific water-types) show a seasonal signal with abundance maxima (minima) during summer (winter). This seasonal signal is most pronounced in the seasonal/bloom category and least expressed by deep-water taxa, which prefer cold, saline and dense bottom water independent of the season. Different extents of EAC encroachment onto the continental shelf drive the cross-shelf phytoplankton composition and distribution, such that a weak EAC is associated with phytoplankton community being organised along ‘depth’ and ‘distance from the coast’ gradients with high phytoplankton abundances inshore. A strong EAC favours the occurrence of warm-water taxa offshore and an increase in diatom abundance on the mid-shelf (53% shelf width). We conclude that the phytoplankton community in the tropical-temperate transition zone of Eastern Australia is driven by an interaction of intrinsic seasonal cycles and primarily EAC-driven oceanic forcing. Our findings benefit studies located in Western Boundary Current systems worldwide, in which warming and strengthening of these currents are predicted to severely impact phytoplankton dynamics.

The impact of open boundary forcing on forecasting the East Australian Current using ensemble data assimilation

We investigate the performance of an eddy resolving regional ocean forecasting system of the East Australian Current (EAC) for both ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a focus on open boundary model nesting solutions. The performance of nesting into a global re-analysis; nesting into the system’s own analysis; and nesting into a free model is quantified in terms of forecast innovation error. Nesting in the global reanalysis is found to yield the best results. This is closely followed by the system that nests inside its own analysis, which seems to represent a viable practical option in the absence of a suitable analysis to nest within. Nesting into a global reanalysis without data assimilation and nesting into an unconstrained model were both found to be unable to constrain the mesoscale circulation at all times. We also find that for a specific interior area of the domain where the EAC separation takes place, there is a mixture of results for all the systems investigated here and that, whilst the application of EnKF generates the best results overall, there are still times when not even this method is able to constrain the circulation in this region with the available observations.