East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Research Articles

June insolation gradient and ice sheet forcing on Qaidam precipitation during the middle Piacenzian warm period

Whether the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) migrated westward into the Asian interior during past warm periods is still unclear but is important for predicting precipitation variability in the Asian interior under future warming. Recent precipitation records from the Qaidam Basin in the Asian interior suggest that the EASM further migrated westward into the western Qaidam Basin during the middle Piacenzian warm period (mPWP: 3.264–3.025 Ma), indicating that precipitation in this ecologically fragile region was greater than it is currently. However, these precipitation records reveal weak sensitivity to insolation forcing, which is inconsistent with records from monsoon-influenced regions, hindering our understanding of orbital timescale precipitation variations in the Qaidam Basin during this Pliocene warmth. In this study, we report high-resolution (~3 kyr) magnetic parameter-based records and medium grain size records from the GS section of the western Qaidam Basin during 3.25–2.95 Ma. We interpret magnetic parameters and grain size as precipitation proxies based on their sensitivity to precipitation variations. Our precipitation records suggest that the EASM precipitation was likely the precipitation source for the Qaidam Basin during the mPWP. At the orbital timescale, precipitation records reveal dominant 20-kyr precessional cycles, consistent with records from the Chinese Loess Plateau and the South China Sea, suggesting that the June insolation gradient controlled precipitation variations in the Qaidam Basin during the mPWP. At the 40-kyr band, precipitation records show in-phase relationships with ice sheets, and we infer that Antarctic ice sheet forcing seems to also influence Qaidam precipitation via atmospheric or marine processes. These results provide the first evidence demonstrating that Qaidam precipitation was extremely sensitive to the June insolation gradient and ice sheets during the mPWP, improving our understanding of orbital timescale precipitation variations in the Asian interior during past warm periods.

Did recent sea surface temperature warming reinforce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in 2020?

We analyzed the possible effects of recent sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation in 2020 summer. The dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of SST are examined by conducting regional climate model experiments with observed SST and cold SST where the 22-year SST trend is removed. In the presence of warm SST, precipitation increases in low latitudes but decreases in the EASM region. This dipolar precipitation change pattern opposes the precipitation anomalies in 2020 summer, indicating that the extraordinary 2020 EASM precipitation is not likely driven by recent SST warming. The warm SST suppresses the western North Pacific subtropical high expansion and weakens the southwesterly from the South China Sea toward the EASM region. In terms of large-scale atmospheric circulations, SST-induced wind changes strengthen the local Walker circulation in the South China Sea and the Philippines and the local Hadley circulation across the EASM region. These support the reduced EASM rainfall in the control experiment compared to the cold SST experiment and imply that the precipitation reduction by dynamical effects could exceed the precipitation increase by thermodynamic effects in the EASM region under warm SST.

Improving subseasonal forecasting of East Asian monsoon precipitation with deep learning

Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is crucial, as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions. However, the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models for precipitation remains limited. In this study, we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models. The outcomes of the CNN model are promising, as it led to a 14% increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), from 0.30 to 0.35, and a 22% reduction in the root-mean-square error (RMSE), from 3.22 to 2.52, for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week. Among the S2S models, the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model's performance in accurately predicting circulation fields. The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether we correct each grid point or the entire area-averaged index. Furthermore, u200 (200-hPa zonal wind) is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction.

East Asian summer monsoon and early anthropogenic impacts on the lacustrine carbon cycle in the Otindag Sandy Land since the middle Holocene

Lake systems play a pivotal role in the global carbon cycle, yet the biogeochemical processes in alkaline and saline lakes have received little attention. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of δ13Ccarb and δ18Ocarb records from Lake Chagan in the Otindag Sandy Land, located in North China, spanning approximately 7000 years. Our aim is to explore how the lacustrine inorganic carbon cycle responded to both climate change and human activity. The findings reveal a notable highstand in Lake Chagan around 6.9–6.0 cal kyr BP, followed by a gradual regression leading to an unstable status over the past 1.6 cal kyr BP. The hydroclimate variations inferred from Lake Chagan align with other regional records, suggesting that long-term East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation trends are influenced by decreasing insolation and variations in solar irradiance on a centennial timescale. The sources of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in lake water generally mirror regional hydroclimate changes since the middle Holocene. Our evidence indicates that during periods of strong EASM activity, more allochthonous organic matter is converted to lake water DIC, coinciding with high vegetation cover and intense soil erosion. While hydroclimatic changes significantly impact the lacustrine carbon cycle, the isotopic evidence also suggests substantial anthropogenic influences post-1.6 cal kyr BP, particularly in terms of the input of allochthonous organic matter into the lakes of the Otindag Sandy Land. These findings underscore the potential for anthropogenic-driven terrestrial carbon cycle feedback to global climate change over millennia.

Evolution of weathering intensity in the Qaidam Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, since the middle Miocene: Insights from clay mineral records

Terrestrial silicate weathering records from the tectonically active Tibetan Plateau are crucial to explore the interactions among climate change, tectonic uplift and chemical weathering during the Cenozoic. However, the complex sedimentary facies changes and frequent occurrence of coarse lithologies related to intense tectonic uplift of the Tibetan Plateau have largely limited the reliability of bulk chemical weathering indexes to reveal the silicate weathering history. Here, we present detailed records of clay minerals and geochemical compositions from clay-sized (< 2 μm) sediments collected from the well-dated Huaitoutala section (ca. 15.3–1.8 Ma) in the NE Qaidam Basin to reconstruct the chemical weathering history of the NE Tibetan Plateau during the late Cenozoic. The relatively high (illite–smectite mixed layers + smectite)/(chlorite + illite) ratio indicates a strong silicate weathering intensity from 15.3 to 12.6. Ma, while a continuous decrease in this ratio since 12.6 Ma reflects a long-term decreasing intensity of silicate weathering. By comparing the clay mineral records with the climatic reconstruction and the tectonic events in the NE Tibetan Plateau, the results reveal that middle Miocene global cooling-related drying exerted a significant influence on the decreasing weathering intensity since ca. 12.6 Ma. Furthermore, the late Cenozoic episodic and persistent uplift of the NE Tibetan Plateau may have exerted an additional influence on the long-term decrease in weathering intensity. Specifically, the dramatic fluctuation in the silicate weathering intensity during ∼11–9.6 Ma is mainly due to uplift-induced provenance changes. Moreover, the fluctuating increase in the silicate weathering intensity during ∼8–5 Ma may have been caused by intensified East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Our study suggests that both climate change and tectonic deformation controlled the chemical weathering intensity in the NE Tibetan Plateau during the late Cenozoic.

Asynchronous Holocene lake evolution in arid mid-latitude Asia is driven by glacial meltwater and variations in Westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon

Understanding the mechanisms driving hydrological change in arid Central Asia over a range of time scales is crucial for making predictions for future changes in fragile desert-lake ecosystems. As of yet, the drivers of hydrological changes in lake systems of arid Central Asia over the Holocene remain largely unexplored. Aibi Lake, fed by rivers originating from the glaciated Tianshan Mountains and terminating in the arid Junggar Basin of northwestern China, presents a perfect natural laboratory to explore lake evolution in context to Holocene climate evolution in arid Central Asia. Here, a single-grain K-feldspar dating method was used to effectively date 20 paleolake shorelines with poorly bleached sediment to constrain lake level evolution over the past 18 k.y. Results indicate that Aibi Lake experienced a rapid increase in water levels, reaching a peak of ∼36 m during the early to mid-Holocene period (10−7 ka). Subsequently, the lake level may have shown a general decline during the middle Holocene (7−4 ka), with the lake reaching a low level of less than 10 m at ca. 4 ka. In the late Holocene, lake levels fluctuated by 10−30 m above modern levels during 4−1 ka, with generally low levels of &amp;lt;9 m after 1 ka. The evolution of Aibi Lake underlines a clear out-of-phase relationship between Central Asian lake evolution and Westerlies precipitation changes, where Holocene lake changes were instead more directly controlled by the flux of glacial meltwater from the Tianshan Mountains, driven by change in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Glacier meltwater, in combination with variable delivery of Westerlies and East Asian summer monsoon precipitation, are responsible for asynchronous lake evolution trends across Central to East Asia.

Hydrothermal and eco-environmental evolution on the southeastern Chinese Loess Plateau since the last deglaciation: evidence from terrestrial mollusk records

The ongoing global warming is altering hydrothermal patterns and eco-environments. However, it is unclear how they would respond under a natural warming scenario. Terrestrial mollusks in loess-paleosol sequences could serve as natural biological archives to explore this issue. In this study, terrestrial mollusk records from two loess-paleosol profiles on the southeastern Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) were analyzed. Our results show that the cold-aridiphilous species decreased and the overall biodiversity increased gradually during the last deglaciation (∼19.0–11.5 ka BP), which was accompanied with the shift from cold-dry to warm-humid climate. Moreover, the mollusk communities reacted to Heinrich event 1 (H1) cooling. In the early-middle Holocene (∼11.5–5.5 ka BP), mollusk communities were dominated by the thermo-humidiphilous species, characterized by stable community composition, increased species richness and evenness with warm-humid climate. Thereafter, there was a noticeable decrease in species diversity and increase in the cold-aridiphilous species in the mid-late Holocene (∼5.5–0 ka BP), associated with a gradual shift towards a cold-dry climate. On the whole, it is noteworthy that the count of thermo-humidiphilous species increased remarkably at ∼16 ka BP, which is synchronous with a significant increase in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Interestingly, this change of terrestrial mollusks preceded the formation of the Holocene paleosol at ∼8 ka as indicated by the pronounced increase in magnetic susceptibility and decrease of mean grain size. This suggests that the substantial East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation lagged the onset of deglacial warming on the southeastern CLP. Furthermore, this delay may be attributed to the negative feedback of North Atlantic meltwater, which caused a decline in the intensity of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and inhibited the rapid enhancement of EASM precipitation during the last deglaciation. Altogether, this provides crucial geological background evidence for exploring the potential regional hydrothermal and biodiversity responses to global warming in the near future.

East Asian monsoon and westerly jet driven changes in climate and surface conditions in the NE drylands of China since the Late Pleistocene

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is a major component of the global climate yet, the causes for the past spatiotemporal variability of EASM rainfall, its interactions and impacts remain unresolved. Here we use the Sr–Nd isotopes and rare earth elements composition of dust in a peat record from northeast (NE) China to investigate the relationship between aeolian dust, the East Asian monsoon and Westerly Jet (WJ) over East Asia since the Late Pleistocene (14 cal ka BP). The NE drylands of China dominate the dust fraction (Hunshandake, Horqin; 44–88%) with a contribution from the deserts of NW China (Badain Jaran, Tengger, Taklamakan; 10–44%), suggesting an influence of the WJ. Dust deposition varied during the Holocene, displaying a minimum between 8.0 and 6.0 cal ka BP and two peaks at 5.8–3.8 and 1.7–0.3 cal ka BP. Changes in dust flux are opposite to the East Asian winter monsoon intensity profile, suggesting a limited influence of the winter monsoon. The EASM appears to have played a more significant role in the dust cycle, with increasing dust fluxes corresponding with lower EASM precipitation. Variations in dust flux from NE drylands display shifts reflecting changes in EASM precipitations and dune activity along the EASM margin, where the dust originates from. To account for the influence of the WJ, we propose that the meridional position and intensity of the WJ also affected dust emission in the drylands’ region. A more northward position of the WJ allows the EASM front further north, generating more precipitations over the NE drylands, reducing the extent of arid areas, and resulting in less dust emission from dune activity, while the opposite occurs with a strong, more southerly WJ. Anthropogenic activities are likely to have had an increasing impact on the dust cycle over the late Holocene. Nevertheless, the presence of inconsistencies in records, coupled with a simultaneous decline in climatic conditions (mainly precipitations) during the same timeframe, hinders the precise assessment of the influence of human activities on dust emissions in the region.

Hydroclimatic changes in eastern China during the Holocene based on pollen data and climate modeling

The Asian monsoon system represents one of the world's most dynamic interactions of the cryosphere-continent-ocean-atmosphere system. Understanding and responding to changes in monsoonal precipitation is a major component of environmental management in this region, given its profound influence on socioeconomic activity in monsoonal Asia. In particular, characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is critical for comprehensively understanding its dynamics and future impacts. Although substantial progress has been made in reconstructing past changes in the EASM, the spatial pattern of EASM intensity in China on the orbital-scale remains controversial. This is mainly because of uncertainties in the climatic interpretation of EASM-related proxies. Here, we present a quantitative seasonal precipitation reconstruction for monsoonal China during the Holocene, using the Modern Analog Technique (MAT) based on pollen data. The results show that during the Holocene both the annual and summer precipitation in monsoonal China increased gradually and reached a peak during the early mid-Holocene, with respective values that were ∼ 170 mm and 60 mm higher than today, followed by a decrease in the late Holocene. On the regional scale, the temporal pattern of monsoon rainfall was discrepant: a decrease from the early through late Holocene in northern China, and an increase from the early through late Holocene in southern China.To investigate the possible forcing mechanisms of these phenomena, we used the full TraCE-21 k simulation and single-forcing transient simulations to analyze spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. The results suggest that the north-south pattern is the product of orbital forcing. Intensified summer insolation during the early Holocene enhanced the land-sea thermal contrast, which strengthened the EASM along with the northward extension of the west Pacific subtropical high. Both factors caused the increased withdrawal of oceanic water vapor and the northward advance of the EASM rain belt, delivering more rainfall to northern China and less rainfall to southern China, and vice versa. Overall, our results indicate that insolation variations were the dominant factor determining the spatial pattern of EASM precipitation during the Holocene. Our findings are relevant to the calibration of palaeoclimate models and they contribute to an improved understanding of the Asian monsoon sub-systems.

Loess deposits in the low latitudes of East Asia reveal the ~20-kyr precipitation cycle

The cycle of precipitation change is key to understanding the driving mechanism of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). However, the dominant cycles of EASM precipitation revealed by different proxy indicators are inconsistent, leading to the “Chinese 100 kyr problem”. In this study, we examine a high-resolution, approximately 350,000-year record from a low-latitude loess profile in China. Our analyses show that variations in the ratio of dithionite−citrate−bicarbonate extractable iron to total iron are dominated by the ~20-kyr cycle, reflecting changes in precipitation. In contrast, magnetic susceptibility varies with the ~100-kyr cycle and may be mainly controlled by temperature-induced redox processes or precipitation-induced signal smoothing. Our results suggest that changes in the EASM, as indicated by precipitation in this region, are mainly forced by precession-dominated insolation variations, and that precipitation and temperature may have varied with different cycles over the past ~350,000 years.

Late Cenozoic Cooling History of the Xigaze Fore-Arc Basin along the Yarlung–Zangbo Suture Zone (Southern Tibet): New Insights from Low-Temperature Thermochronology

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau is currently the widest and highest elevation orogenic plateau on Earth. It formed as a response to the Cenozoic and is still ongoing collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. The Xigaze fore-arc basin distributed along the Indus–Yarlung suture zone in southern Tibet preserves important information related to the late Cenozoic tectonic and topographic evolution of the plateau. In this study, apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronology was carried out on twelve sandstone samples from the middle segment of the Xigaze basin and additionally on four sedimentary rocks from the neighboring Dazhuka (Kailas) and Liuqu Formations. Inverse thermal history modeling results reveal that the fore-arc basin rocks experienced episodic late Oligocene to Miocene enhanced cooling. Taking into account regional geological data, it is suggested that the late Oligocene-early Miocene (~27–18 Ma) cooling recognized in the northern part of the basin was promoted by fault activity along the Great Counter thrust, while mid-to-late Miocene-accelerated exhumation was facilitated by strong incision of the Yarlung and Buqu rivers, which probably resulted from enhanced East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. Sandstone and conglomerate samples from the Dazhuka and Liuqu Formations yielded comparable Miocene AFT apparent ages to those of the Xigaze basin sediments, indicative of (mid-to-late Miocene) exhumation soon after their early Miocene burial (&amp;gt; ~3–4 km). Additionally, our new and published low-temperature thermochronological data indicate that enhanced basement cooling during the Miocene prevailed in vast areas of central southern Tibet when regional exhumation was triggered by both tectonic and climatic contributing factors. This recent and widespread regional exhumation also led to the formation of the high-relief topography of the external drainage area in southern Tibet, including the Xigaze fore-arc basin.

Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation during the Early Pleistocene based on pollen analysis from the western Loess Plateau, China

Understanding Early Pleistocene variability in precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) may help improve understanding of the effects of future global warming on this system. In this study, a quantitative EASM precipitation record with ∼2.7 kyr resolution was reconstructed for the Early Pleistocene (∼2.2–1.7 Ma) based on a pollen record from a loess-paleosol sequence in Lanzhou Basin, on the western Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). The results show that the average annual precipitation (Pann) value was ∼505 mm, almost ∼1.6 times as much as today (∼310 mm), implying much stronger EASM intensity from ∼2.2–1.7 Ma. The EASM experienced a period of stronger intensity from ∼2.2 to 2.07 Ma, with Pann up to ∼525 mm and vegetation dominated by forest-steppe, as well as a period of weaker intensity between ∼2.07 and 1.99 Ma with lower average Pann (∼481 mm) and steppe dominated vegetation. A gradual intensification followed from ∼1.99 to 1.7 Ma, with increasing Pann (∼503 mm) accompanied by a significant increase in arboreal abundance. Our analysis suggests that the west to east temperature gradients across the Equatorial Pacific region influenced the Early Pleistocene EASM evolution over geological timescales. This finding differs from the traditional view that high-latitude ice sheet fluctuations were the primary driving force of Quaternary EASM. On orbital timescales, the Pann exhibits a dominant ∼41 kyr obliquity periodicity between ∼2.2–1.99 Ma and a ∼18 kyr precession periodicity between ∼1.99–1.7 Ma, indicating that Northern Hemisphere ice sheet and low-latitude solar insolation were the dominant drivers of EASM precipitation cycles in these two periods.

Differences of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Responses between Transient and Stabilization Simulations

The differences between the two global warming targets of the Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, have drawn much attention from the scientific community. However, there is a remaining gap to distinguish regional climate responses in these two most typical pathways, i.e., transient and stabilization simulations, toward specific warming levels. In this study, we discern the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) responses between these two types of simulations at low-warming targets, based on the fully coupled community Earth system model (CESM). The two types of responses display a similar increase pattern in the EASM precipitation. However, the quantitative differences between these two types of responses are as large as those between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios. The moist budget analysis reveals that the EASM precipitation differences are mainly caused by the thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy effects. Specifically, the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation increment in the coastal area of East Asia in both types of responses, with the enhanced low-level specific humidity. The dynamic contribution shows tripolar and bipolar patterns in East Asia in the transient and stabilization responses, respectively. Remarkably, the transient eddy effect contribution emerges only in the stabilization responses. Further, we reveal the dominant role of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in determining the contributions from dynamic and transient eddy effects. The changes in the EASJ’s position and intensity are greatly regulated by the temperature change patterns at the mid-high levels in response to different greenhouse gas emission pathways. Our study highlights the differences between transient and stabilization climate states on a regional scale.

IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of multi-grains, single grains, and cobble surfaces to constrain fluvial responses to climate changes during the last glacial period in the Tokachi Plain, northern Japan

Accurate chronologies of fluvial terraces are necessary to understand fluvial responses to climate and sea-level changes and uplift. Although feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (post-IR IRSL, or pIRIR) dating has been used to establish chronologies for Pleistocene fluvial terraces, the signals can be partially bleached in short, high-gradient river systems typical of Japanese rivers, resulting in overestimated ages. This study investigated aggradational fluvial terraces formed on the Tokachi Plain, northern Japan, during the last glacial period, and true depositional ages of the deposits were estimated by comparing multi-grain IRSL50/150, pIRIR50/150, and pIRIR50/225 ages, with single-grain pIRIR50/225 ages. IRSL50/225 and pIRIR50/225 ages of granite cobbles were also obtained and compared with the ages of multi-grains to evaluate the reliability of cobble ages. Fading-corrected IRSL 50/150 ages of multi-grains were consistent with pIRIR50/150 ages, indicating that the fading correction of IRSL50/150 signal was successful. Although equivalent dose distributions of single grains suggest that the pIRIR50/225 signal was completely bleached at deposition, pIRIR50/225 ages were slightly older than fading-corrected IRSL 50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages possibly because of small residual doses. Fading-corrected IRSL50/225 and fading-corrected pIRIR50/225 ages of granite cobbles were consistent with the fading-corrected IRSL50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages of multi-grains. However, comparison of cobble ages with climate records seems difficult due to their large errors. The fading-corrected IRSL50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages of multi-grains indicate that fluvial aggradation occurred at 70–60 ka, followed by incision. Changes in the strength of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation are sufficient to explain fluvial evolution in the Tokachi Plain. Although some previous studies have argued that the ages of fluvial terraces might not be simply correlated to climate changes because of complex fluvial responses, significant changes in precipitation in the study area might have dominated the evolution of the entire fluvial system. Comparison with other fluvial systems in Japan suggests that slight differences in the responses of different fluvial systems to climate changes might be due to the spatial variability of those changes.

Mid-Miocene terrestrial carbon isotope shift driven by atmospheric CO2 in the Xining Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau

The Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ~17–15 Ma) was a relatively recent warming event unrelated to human activity that provides an ideal analogue for our global warming future. However, the terrestrial ecosystem response to the MMCO remains unclear because of limited records. Continuous sedimentation from the Tashan Borehole (TSB) in the Xining Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) spans the entire MMCO, with dates of 18.5–13.5 Ma from high-resolution paleomagnetic studies. Here, we explore the organic carbon isotope (δ13CTOC) record of TSB to investigate the NETP terrestrial ecosystem response to the MMCO. The sediments are typical floodplain deposits with δ13CTOC values ranging from −28.03‰ to −25.16‰, indicating terrestrial C3 plants were the dominant NETP terrestrial vegetation during MMCO. Further, an obviously negative shift of 0.6‰ occurred in TSB δ13CTOC during ~17.6–14.2 Ma. TSB δ13CTOC values show the opposite trend to global benthic δ13C values, both in the long-term Monterey Excursion event and short-term carbon maxima events. Increased atmospheric CO2 during the MMCO enhanced the carbon isotope fractionation through photosynthesis by terrestrial plants and resulted in more 12C-enriched organic matter. Similar processes on a global scale subsequently accounted for part of the Monterey carbon isotope excursion. Therefore, in warm and humid conditions, the carbon isotope cycle of terrestrial C3 plants in the Xining Basin was mainly controlled by atmospheric CO2 concentration, with superimposition of effects of enhanced East Asian summer monsoon precipitation.

Middle Miocene evolution of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the northeast part of the Tibetan Plateau based on a quantitative analysis of palynological records

Characterized by elevated pCO2 levels and global warmth, the mid-Miocene climate is a valuable analogue for investigating how the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) may evolve at different time scales. In this paper, we present a quantitative EASM precipitation record with a temporal resolution of ∼14 kyr during the mid-Miocene (∼15.97 to 13.64 Ma) by applying the probabilistic CREST (Climate Reconstruction Software) method to palynological records from the northeast part of the Tibetan Plateau. Reconstructed mid-Miocene EASM precipitation (∼860 mm) was almost twice that of today (∼450 mm), indicating much stronger EASM intensity. The reconstruction shows a gradual long-term decline on which was superimposed a stronger EASM period (∼15.97–14.54 Ma) followed by a relatively stable period (∼14.54–13.84 Ma) and a short period of reduced precipitation (∼13.84–13.64 Ma). The correspondence of EASM precipitation changes with the mid-Miocene climate optimum and west-east thermal gradients in equatorial Pacific suggests these two factors were the main driving forces for EASM evolution from ∼15.97 to 14.54 Ma, whereas the combined impact of global cooling and the northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is probably responsible for the slight decline of the EASM from ∼14.54 to 13.84 Ma. The weaker EASM between ∼13.84 and 13.64 Ma was most likely a response to the global significant cooling event Mi-3. On orbital time scales, the precipitation records exhibit a dominant ∼400 kyr periodicity, indicating EASM changes were mainly paced by eccentricity via the modulation of precessional amplitude, and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet variations were probably another important driving force.

Impact of centennial-scale solar activity reduction on the weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka BP

The weakened Asian monsoon event at 9.2 ka has been documented in many proxy-based reconstructions, but its underlying causes are uncertain. In this study, we investigated this event from a regional monsoon perspective by analysing simulations of Holocene transient solar activity forcing using the Community Earth System Model and high-resolution proxies. Our results revealed two separate periods of decreasing precipitation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South Asian (SA) monsoons from 9.5 to 9.2 ka, each lagging behind two remarkable weakening events (0.38 and 0.21 W m−2) in solar forcing. However, there was no significant change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation at 9.2 ka based on our experiment. Moisture budget analysis indicated that the dynamic effects term (i.e., anomalous descending motion) figured prominently in decreasing WNP and SA monsoon precipitation. Such a change was affected by an anomalous WNP anticyclone, which was maintained by the ‘wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature’ feedback during the decay phase of the centennial-scale El Niño-like event. The development of centennial El Niño-like conditions was caused by a reduction in solar irradiance. Reduced solar irradiance induced cooling over northern Australia, generating anomalous zonal sea level pressure gradients and westerlies over the tropical Pacific, ultimately resulting in the development of an El Niño-like pattern.

High-resolution luminescence chronology of loess-paleosols reveals East Asian summer monsoon and winter monsoon variation in Hexi Corridor during the past 25 kyr

The variability and interaction of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and Westerlies dominate mid-latitude Asian hydroclimate and influence over a billion lives in Asia. However, how variation in the EASM, EAWM and Westerlies influences climate change in their transition zones in NW China remain unclear. Specifically, how these atmospheric systems interact during strong-weak phases variation over different timescales is still hotly debated. This study investigates four loess-paleosol sequences in the transition zone between EASM and Westerlies-influenced areas along the central Hexi Corridor of NW China, and presents 63 quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages to generate the most detailed chronology for any loess record within the Hexi Corridor. In combination with sedimentology, proxy indexes of magnetic parameters (χlf, χfd, χARM/SIRM) and grain size of these loess-paleosol sequences, and TraCE-21 ka climatic modelling, the loess deposition and climatic changes at central Hexi Corridor regions over the past 25 ka are reconstructed. Our results indicate that: (1) loess deposition initiated by at least 25 ka at Hexi Corridor. Loess depositional rates decrease from late last glacial into the Holocene, with maximum accumulation rates (140–180 g/cm3/ka) occurring during the Last Glacial Maximum. Depositional hiatuses up to 8 ka are recognized in late Quaternary Hexi Corridor loess, which suggests that high-resolution chronologies are necessary for robust paleoclimatic reconstructions from loess records in the region. (2) Over glacial-interglacial cycles, climate in the Hexi Corridor demonstrates a cold-dry glacial and a warm-moist interglacial, consistent with moisture changes observed in the monsoonal Chinese Central Loess Plateau and Westerlies-dominated Central Asia. However, moisture in central Hexi Corridor increased from the early Holocene to mid-Holocene, with a wettest period at 8–7 ka, and followed by a relatively wet late Holocene. These changes are most consistent with the EASM-dominated Chinese Central Loess Plateau and suggests that Westerlies influence in the central Hexi Corridor is minor over at least the past 25 kyr. (3) EAWM intensities demonstrate an anti-phase relationship to EASM intensities over the past 25 kyr in the Hexi Corridor, with decreasing EAWM intensity into the early-mid Holocene and an increase into the late Holocene. (4). EASM precipitation variability in the Hexi Corridor appears to not to be a direct nor singular response to changes in 30°N summer insolation. EASM lags insolation by 3 kyr during the Holocene, supporting the idea that high-latitude forcing through changes in ice volume, greenhouse gases, and/or meltwater input to North Atlantic and Southern oceans can effectively modulate EASM intensity and critically influence Hexi Corridor paleoclimatic conditions.

Decoupled local climate and chemical weathering intensity of fine-grained siliciclastic sediments from a paleo-megalake: An example from the Qaidam basin, northern Tibetan Plateau

Clay mineralogy and elemental geochemistry of lacustrine sedimentary records have been widely used in paleo-weathering and paleo-climate studies. However, different paleo-climatic interpretations may be produced via analyses on siliciclastic sediments and other sedimentary components (e.g., authigenic minerals and organic materials), especially for megalake systems. To test this hypothesis, we focus on late Cenozoic lacustrine fine-grained deposits from the northwestern Qaidam basin and combine clay mineralogical and geochemical data (including neodymium isotope) to interpret sediment provenance, reconstruct paleo-weathering history and characterize sediment-climate feedback processes. Provenance analysis results show that the lacustrine siliciclastic sediments were derived from lithologically similar sources that provided dominant felsic parent-rocks. The kaolinite/illite ratio, illite chemistry index, Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) values are low and demonstrate overwhelmingly mild-moderate chemical weathering intensity, seemingly matching well with the middle–late Miocene regional arid climate. However, these weathering intensity index values are also highly fluctuant and display increasing trends during ~13.4–12 Ma and ~8.8–8.4 Ma. The reconstructed paleo-weathering history is discrepant with local intensified aridity conditions documented by previously published sedimentary carbonate oxygen isotope, evaporite mineral, biomarker and sporopollen data. Given the occurrence of a middle–late Miocene megalake in the Qaidam basin, the intense exhumation at ~13–12 Ma and the ~9 to ~7 Ma intensified East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in northeastern Tibet regions, we suggest that the lacustrine fine-grained siliciclastic compositions and corresponding weathering records were likely influenced by tectonic and climatic changes in far regions to the east. The observed clay mineralogical and geochemical variations reflect weathering conditions involving sediment sources and transport pathways, not merely the depositional areas. Our findings verify the possible differences in paleo-climate reconstruction results from different lacustrine sediment indicators. This study emphasizes the importance of a sediment source-to-sink perspective for paleo-climate study based on siliciclastic materials in megalake systems.

Robust projection of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall based on dynamical modes of variability

The Asian monsoon provides the freshwater that a large population in Asia depends on, but how anthropogenic climate warming may alter this key water source remains unclear. This is partly due to the prevailing point-wise assessment of climate projections, even though climate change patterns are inherently organized by dynamics intrinsic to the climate system. Here, we assess the future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation by projecting the precipitation from several large ensemble simulations and CMIP6 simulations onto the two leading dynamical modes of internal variability. The result shows a remarkable agreement among the ensembles on the increasing trends and the increasing daily variability in both dynamical modes, with the projection pattern emerging as early as the late 2030 s. The increase of the daily variability of the modes heralds more monsoon-related hydrological extremes over some identifiable East Asian regions in the coming decades.