East Asian Policy Research Articles

중일전쟁의 개전과 1930년대 동아시아 국제정치

When examining the outbreak and protracted course of the Sino-Japanese War, it is important to note the attitudes of neighboring countries such as the United States and the Soviet Union toward the Sino-Japanese issue, which arose as a result of Japan's aggressive continental policy, and how these attitudes influenced the outbreak of the war. Given that the Sino-Japanese War was a protracted eight-year war fought by the Chinese government with the support of the Soviet Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom, and that it was an international event that directly influenced the outbreak of the Asia-Pacific War, it is necessary to understand the diplomatic process surrounding the war, not just the decision to escalate the war within the Japanese leadership and the decision to wage a protracted global war. After the Manchurian Incident, Japan's East Asian policy included an aggressive expansion of its influence on the Chinese mainland, which was embodied in aggressive public policies such as the army-led campaign to separate Hwaseong from North Korea. In response to these Japanese public policies, the Chinese government actively sought internal and diplomatic means to resist, while the Soviet Union and the United States, both of which were paying attention to East Asian affairs, gradually shifted their policies toward supporting China in the Sino-Japanese conflict and deterring Japanese aggression. The fact that 1935 was the year when Japan's public policy became overtly aggressive, as symbolized by the separation of Hwaseong, and that Sino-Japanese relations began to trend in a friendly direction from this year shows that the attitude of neighboring countries toward the Sino-Japanese dispute had already shifted in a direction favorable to China before the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War.

George W. Bush’s post-9/11 East Asia policy: enabling China’s contemporary assertiveness

It is commonly argued that China’s foreign policy and behaviour have become increasingly assertive since Xi Jinping took the reins of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This strategic transformation is seen as paving the way for a direct confrontation between China and the USA since the Trump presidency. Drawing on the logic of international order-building, however, this article argues that the groundwork for this strategic change was laid when Hu Jintao was leading the CCP and that what made it possible was George W. Bush’s China and East Asia policy after 9/11. Bush’s subsequent reduced interest in East Asia enabled China to fill the void left by an absence of US presence and influence in the region. This article asserts that American policy-makers may need to ponder what their order-building project to weaken and exclude an illiberal China should include.

정한경의 당대사 서술 배경과 현실 인식

The goal of this research is to learn about Henry De Young’s persperctive on history through his published book. Henry De Young is an independence activist in America. Henry De Young who was born in 1890, moved to America and earned a master's degree in Nebraska University and a PhD from American University. His master's thesis, titled "The Oriental Policy of the United States," criticized the United States' East Asian policy and Japan's assertive diplomacy. It is notable in that Korea was the first country to reveal to the U.S that it had made treaties with numerous countries before to the Japanese colonial era, and that the invasion of Japan had severed ties with them. In addition, his dissertation based on 5,000 pamphlets and 10,000 magazines was created on the Japanese colonial era “The Case of Korea” which promotes March 1st Movement and Japan's actual colonial control. The despotic Korean colonial rule of Japan was explained with particular examples based on data gathered by Western missionaries in Korea and data published in the journal. Henry De Young not only gave a speech on the subject of the book at her Ph.D. graduation, but also distributed it across the United States. The independence petition made by Henry De Young, the mandate petition, and the brochure issued during the first Korean Congress in Philadelphia all include common terms and expressions. He published “The Russian Came to Korea” in 1947, praising the United States' military presence in Korea while denouncing the Soviet Union's military presence in North Korea. Furthermore, while the military administration of the United States ruled South Korea in a fairly democratic manner, the Soviet Union ruled North Korea in a very oppressive manner, and it held a negative view of communism in South Korea and North Korea's Kim Il-sung. He wrote the original book The American Came to Korea, which he experienced directly, from 1958 to 1963, and it was published after his death in 2000. His critical views on democracy and military rule are presented in this work.

The Origins of Japan’s Contemporary Diplomatic Strategy in East Asia: 2001–2012

Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, Japan’s East Asia policy saw the emergence of several new strategies and initiatives. The two key strategies of this period were the East Asian Community and the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity, which reflected differing approaches towards the role of China in the developing regional order. The goal of this article is to analyse the ideological foundations of these two strategies, as well as the reasons behind their failure. It also examines the question of why Japan’s diplomatic initiatives changed so rapidly during these years. Finally, the article looks at the shifts in Sino-Japanese relations which represent a key variable in the evolution of Japan’s East Asia policy. While Japan’s East Asian policy of this period is well researched in Russian academic literature, the majority of studies examine the policies of specific prime ministers, with Asian diplomacy typically viewed within the framework of foreign policy in general. Meanwhile, a more dynamic analysis of the development of Japan’s regional strategy is lacking, and it is this gap that this article attempts to fill. Based on the analysis of Japanese government documents, as well as a wide range of studies of Japan’s foreign policy by Russian and foreign scholars, from monographs and academic journals to online outlets, it presents the evolution of Japan’s strategy in East Asia as a competition between two foreign policy initiatives, the East Asian Community and the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity. The article also highlights the prime ministers’ personal views and beliefs, which had a significant effect on creating a particular strategy. The article concludes that the two aforementioned strategies were underpinned by different political philosophies, with the East Asian Community aiming to accelerate East Asian integration based on common economic interests and embracing China, while the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity prioritised relations with countries sharing Japan’s democratic values and viewed China as a regional outsider. It was precisely Sino-Japanese ties, however, that were perhaps the biggest reason why neither strategy achieved much success at the time; either Japan considered the bilateral relations too economically beneficial to deliberately alienate China, or they suffered from too much tension which precluded further development of economic relations.

Trends in East Asian policies on digital surveillance tools during the COVID-19 pandemic

This article investigates how digital surveillance tools used by East Asian governments against COVID-19 affect privacy and personal data protection. It applies doctrinal legal analysis and case study to compare national regulations of these tools as well as their implementation in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. The approaches range considerably from total (China) to selective surveillance, which, however, seems overly excessive towards privacy of certain social groups, exacerbating social stratification and business disruptions in East Asia. The article argues that selective surveillance models vary across the region from voluntary selective (Japan) to compulsory selective surveillance (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, South Korea) and differ in terms of privacy and related rights. Yet, the increased risks of data misuse and leakages in all the East Asian states and territories need effective legal mechanisms for privacy and data protection that pay sufficient attention to public scrutiny and independent regulators.

Перспективы политики Джозефа Байдена в отношении Восточной Азии

The article provides a forecast of a potential Joseph Biden’s East Asian policy. The forecast is prepared using the recently developed indirect coding language (ICL), which allows to interpret any state as a system and to build models based on official strategic documents. Through this approach, governmental strategies and official documents accepted as the ones can be translated into specific codes, which are connected to particular subsystems characterizing different aspects of a state’s development. The dynamic character of the model is provided by a temporal approach. The author analyses the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance using the ICL to build a model matching the interpretation of the global and regional development by J. Biden and his administration. Dynamically J. Biden’s policy inherits basic goals of Donald Trump’s in general or partly. Substantial changes of priorities can only be observed in food-agricultural, ecological-environmental and military subsystems. It allows forecasting that in general the 46th president will follow major directions of his predecessor’s policy. ICL-modeling of the J. Biden’s interpretation of East Asia allows forecasting the next basic parameters of probable future US policy in the region. First, the Chinese vector will be its core while all other priorities will be regarded as subordinate with an exception to counteracting the regional threats posed by North Korea. Second, policy toward China as a complicated threat will create a dividing line in several dimensions between United States and its allies and partners on the one hand and PRC and its partners on the other hand. It will affect such fields as economy, trade, technology, energy industry, raw materials, environment and ecology, military development, law, civil and humanitarian affairs. The dividing line will acquire global character because the US will be pursuing their policy priorities in the relations with the Indo-Pacific allies and partners as well as NATO ones, as the Pacific region recently becomes more important. Third, there is less and less space for the US and China cooperation. In the nearest future, it is likely to be limited to the climate change problem, health and nuclear non-proliferation.

Security cooperation in and with Asia: towards a pragmatic turn in the EU’s security policy?

ABSTRACTSince the adoption of the first EU-Asia Strategy in 1994, there has been persistent scepticism about the EU’s ability to play a significant role in Asian security. Yet, since the release of the 2012 Updated East Asia Policy Guidelines, the EU has declared its intent to make greater practical contributions to Asian security. Against these premises, this article attempts to reflect on the evolution of the EU’s security approach to Asia, with the ultimate goal of analysing to what degree, it represents a continuation or a departure from former EU policies in the region. In scrutinising these developments, this article argues that in light of the strategic changes, that have occurred in Europe and in Asia, the EU has started to revise its security approach to the region in more pragmatic terms. The pragmatic character of the EU is seen as looking into the changes of the content of the security discourse, which appears increasingly depoliticised and, into the new practices of cooperation, which unlike in the past, seek to empower local actors, are sensitive to local needs and, call for greater security collaboration between the EU and Asian countries, to cope with regional and global challenges.

Saudi Foreign Policy Towards China in the Post-Arab Uprisings Era: A Neo-classical Realist Approach

In light of the unprecedented developments in the Middle East since the Arab uprisings that started at the end of 2010, Saudi Arabia’s international and regional role began to grow. Placing a clear emphasis on its East Asia policy, this Gulf country has improved its relations with Asian powers, particularly China, across a wide range of the interests on its agenda. What are the motivating factors that led the Saudi leadership to closer relations with Beijing? As this year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between two countries, it is worth examining the growing pace of Sino-Saudi relationship. This paper draws on the ‘neoclassical realist approach’ to explore the evolving nature of Saudi foreign policy towards China since the Arab uprisings to the present with a particular focus on the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman era. Upon examining the main determinants that could have had an impact on Saudi foreign policy strategy towards China, this review found that Riyadh’s growing attention to Beijing is mainly influenced by a variety of both internal and external factors related to Saudi leadership, regional patterns as well as the international context. While the combination of these factors pushes Saudi Arabia and China towards cooperation, this paper argues that there are other factors that can act as limiting forces on the Sino-Saudi relationship.

United States and European Union Evolving Approaches in Southeast Asia: Moving Closer to Convergence or Divergence?

With the launch of Barack Obama’s strategic rebalance to Asia-Pacific, there has been a widening of the United States’ military, economic, and diplomatic presence in the Southeast Asian region. Likewise, it is clear that Southeast Asia is currently a region of relevant interest for both the United States and the European Union (EU). Surprisingly, however, up to the present, a systematic comparison of their approaches in the region has been largely lacking. To fill this void, this article compares US and EU interests, strategies, and main instruments of cooperation in Southeast Asia. Special attention is paid to the main developments that occurred in the United States, from Obama’s announcement of a strategic rebalance to Asia-Pacific to Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy, and in the EU, with the release there of the 2012 “Updated East Asia Policy Guidelines.” Examining whether the EU and the United States are moving towards a greater convergence of intent is of crucial importance for identifying opportunities for the further development of the transatlantic relationship in Southeast Asia. This article argues, though, that despite some apparent common traits in the US’s and the EU’s intentions, their strategies and instruments ultimately differ substantially – reflecting divergent paths. This creates crucial impediments to any further development of transatlantic cooperation in Southeast Asia.

Західна історіографія політики США у Східній Азії у ХІХ ст.

The article analyses the main achievements of Western historical scientists in the process of studying U.S. policy in East Asia in the 19th century. The author of the article concludes that, That Western scholars made significant contributions to the study of American politics in East Asia in the 19th century. This is due to, That historians of the United States and European countries understood the importance of exploring the subject, As the Pacific region was in the area of special attention of the leading Western states, Since the first half of the 19th century. That is why a comprehensive and detailed study of various aspects of this issue was considered important for the development of an optimal foreign policy course for the countries of East Asia. The first fundamental studies, which examined the history of American politics in the Pacific Ocean, began to appear in the late 19th — in the first quarter of the 20th century. The article notes that the characteristic feature of the development of Western historiography is that scientists tried not only to cover historical events in detail, but also to make their own recommendations for its optimization and further development. There has also been frequent criticism of White House foreign policy initiatives in East Asia. According to the author, the works of representatives of Western historiography made it possible not only to get acquainted with the actual material, but also to trace the evolution of views on US politics in the 19th century to different stages of the development of American historical thought. In addition, as the analysis of Western historiography showed, the study of East Asian policy of Washington by English-speaking, Chinese and Japanese scientists took place quite dynamically. At the same time, it is necessary to bear in mind the importance of a critical approach in the scientific analysis of these works, as their main task is often to justify the policies of Western States towards the countries of East Asia. At the same time, they provide an opportunity to understand the West's approach to international problems in the region.

“신북방정책” 비전의 국제관계이론적 맥락과 러시아 신동방정책과의 접점

“신북방정책” 비전의 국제관계이론적 맥락과 러시아 신동방정책과의 접점

The Study on the Lives and Health Conditions of Internees in Santo Thomas Camp of Philippines - Based on McAnlis's The War in Manila (1941-1945).

When Japan invaded the Philippines, two missionary dentists (Dr. McAnlis and Dr. Boots) who were forced to leave Korea were captured and interned in the Santo Thomas camp in Manila. Japan continued to bombard and plunder the Philippines in the wake of the Pacific War following the Great East Asia policy, leading to serious inflation and material deficiency. More than 4,000 Allied citizens held in Santo Thomas camp without basic food and shelter. Santo Thomas Camp was equipped with the systems of the Japanese military medical officers and Western doctors of captivity based on the Geneva Conventions(1929). However, it was an unsanitary environment in a dense space, so it could not prevent endemic diseases such as dysentery and dengue fever. With the expansion of the war in Japan, prisoners in the Shanghai and Philippine prisons were not provided with medicines, cures and food for healing diseases. In May 1944, the Japanese military ordered the prisoners to reduce their ration. The war starting in September 1944, internees received 1000 kcal of food per day, and since January 1945, they received less than 800 kcal of food. This was the lowest level of food rationing in Japan's civilian prison camps. They suffered beriberi from malnutrition, and other endemic diseases. An averaged 24 kg was lost by adult men due to food shortages, and 10 percent of the 390 deaths were directly attributable to starvation. The doctors demanded food increases. The Japanese Military forced the prisoner to worship the emperor and doctors not to record malnourishment as the cause of death. During the period, the prisoners suffered from psychosomatic symptoms such as headache, diarrhea, acute inflammation, excessive smoking, and alcoholism also occurred. Thus, the San Thomas camp had many difficulties in terms of nutrition, hygiene and medical care. The Japanese military had unethical and careless medical practices in the absence of medicines. Dr. McAnlis and missionary doctors handled a lot of patients focusing mainly on examination, emergency treatment and provided the medical services needed by Philippines and foreigners as well as prisoners. Through out the war in the Great East Asia, the prisoners of Santo Thomas camp died of disease and starvation due to inhumane Japanese Policy. Appropriate dietary prescriptions and nutritional supplements are areas of medical care that treat patients' malnutrition and disease. It is also necessary to continue research because it is a responsibility related to the professionalism and ethics of medical professionals to urge them to observe the Geneva Convention.

China: an East Asian alternative to neoliberalism?

ABSTRACTThe political-economic evolution of post-Mao China has been portrayed as a historically inevitable embrace of neoliberalism; as an exemplification of the East Asian developmental state and as an extension of Soviet New Economic Policy-style state capitalism. This paper evaluates these portrayals through a broad historical and geographical framework. It examines the position of China as a new state after 1949. It then places the shifting logics of socioeconomic regulation in China in relation to (1) the global neoliberal hegemony since the 1980s and (2) the concomitant shifts in the economic policies of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. In so doing, the paper demonstrates how the Communist Party of China creatively adapted and re-purposed regulatory logics from the Washington Consensus and East Asian policies to consolidate its own version of Leninist state-led development.

The Shift of US Strategy towards East Asia

This piece centres on the vital role intellectuals and think tanks play in US foreign policymaking. Before examining empirical data and original developments, a middle-level theoretical framework is needed to link our data and grand theories in International Relations and Foreign Policy Analysis. We focus on a ‘strategic core force’ troika in the US foreign policymaking system and the significant role it has played in policy transformation. It consists of three key elements—‘policy architect’, ‘expert counsellor’ and ‘policy implementer’. This paper uses a case study from the Asia-Pacific, focusing on the shift of US strategy towards Japan. The post-Cold War period saw increasing uncertainty concerning Japan’s role in US foreign policy and led to a critical examination and restructuring of East Asian policy. Although we focus on the 1990s, there are profound implications for current US policy towards East Asia. The policy shift in the 1990s laid the foundation for Obama’s 2011 ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy, especially as it relates to US security and military operations. It has become increasingly clear that Japan can provide concrete material support in the form of military and financial assistance and as such its importance for US East Asian policy cannot be overstated.

The Next Great War, Cold Peace, or Mutual Gain?

Asian Perspective 40 (2016), 161-171 BOOK REVIEW ESSAY The Next Great War, Cold Peace, or Mutual Gain? Walter C. Clemens Jr. Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller, eds. The Next Great War? The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014. Aaron L. Friedberg. A Contestfor Supremacy: China, America, and the Strugglefor Mastery in Asia. New York: W. W. Nor­ ton, 2011. Wang Jisi and Kenneth G. Lieberthal. “Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust,” Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, No. 4 (March 2012), www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012 /3/30-us-china-lieberthal/0330_china_lieberthal .pdf. Thomas J. Christensen. The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices ofa Rising Power. New York: W. W. Norton, 2015. Henry M. Paulson. Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower. New York: Hachette, 2015. Jeffrey Lewis. Paper Tigers: China’ s Nuclear Posture. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies and Routledge, 2014. Lyle J. Goldstein. Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2015. Morton Abramowitz and Stephen Bosworth. Chasing the Sun: Rethinking East Asian Policy. New York: The Century Foun­ dation, 2006. A CENTURY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF WORLD WAR I IN 1914, SOME observers are asking whether China and the United States are des­ tined to fight for hegemony, as did Germany and Great Britain in 161 162 The Next Great War 1914 and, more than two millennia earlier, Sparta and Athens. Other analysts question whether anything—including these wars—is inevitable in human affairs. These issues give rise to competing hypotheses and answers as well as to still more ques­ tions. Whether readers agree or disagree with the works reviewed here, each deserves attention for its contribution to fathoming and shaping the alternative futures open to China, the United States, and indeed all humanity. The future relationship between China and the United States is one of the mega-changes and mega-challenges of our age. China’s rise is the geopolitical equivalent of the melting polar ice caps: gradual change on a massive scale that can suddenly lead to dramatic turns of events. Were there factors contributing to the Great War that suggest lessons for Sino-US relations today? Four­ teen authors address these questions in The Next Great War? None of these chapters purports to provide the entire picture or even a definitive facet. Still, each embodies a deep analysis rich in heuristics that can spark further research on Sino-US relations, though most of the chapters debate the origins of World War I. Taken together, the essays provide a broad catalog of the many factors that produced the guns ofAugust 1914 and that could con­ duce to other wars. The factors are wide ranging, from familiar doctrines about the shifting balance of power to the mental and emotional qualities of leaders and the cult of the offensive espoused by many strategists. Graham Allison’s chapter argues that China and the United States must work to escape the “Thucydides Trap”—the “dangers that can arise when a rising power challenges a ruling power—as Athens did Sparta . . . and as Germany did Britain a century ago.” Describing the interactions of Athens and Sparta and other Greek city-states, Thucydides asserted, “It was the rise ofAthens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the [Peloponnesian] war inevitable.” Some of the events described by Thucydides in The Peloponnesian War do not square with the inevitability thesis. Still, the sentence quoted has spawned a theory ofhegemonic war, a theory dear to structural realists. They typically predict that ris­ ing powers will seek to deliver a quietus to a weakening hegemon, or that the hegemon will wage a preventive or preemptive war against challengers before it becomes too late. Walter C. Clemens Jr. 163 A similar “trap” has often recurred, according to Allison: “In twelve of sixteen cases in the past 500 years when a rising power challenged a ruling power, the outcome was war.” Since war was avoided in four cases, Allison concedes that hegemonic war is not inevitable. But since China has...

Changing Security Dynamics in East Asia: A Post-US Regional Order in the Making?

Introduction: Why strategic uncertainty? Elena Atanassova-Cornelis and Frans-Paul Van der Putten PART I: EVOLVING REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER IN EAST ASIA - KEY PERSPECTIVES 1. Theoretical Approaches to Asia's Changing Security Order Nick Bisley 2. East Asian Security, Policy Debates and American Leadership Robert Sutter 3. China's Approach to the US Role in East Asia: The Dynamics of Volatile Competition Shi Yinhong PART II: EAST ASIAN RESPONSES TO STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY 4. 'Keeping the United States In': Japan and Regional Order in East Asia Kuniko Ashizawa 5. The US Security Role in South Korea: Issues that Test South Korean Confidence in the US Commitment Larry Niksch 6. Political Resolve and Strategic Uncertainty in Taiwan-US Relations Alexis Littlefield 7. New Strategic Uncertainty and Security Order in Southeast Asia Carlyle A. Thayer PART III: ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF REGIONAL SECURITY ORDER 8. A US-China Dual Leadership in East Asia? Quansheng Zhao 9. Non-Traditional Security Cooperation and Northeast Asian Regional Order Jaewoo Choo 10. Power Bumps on the Way to Regional Community: Asia's Mixed Security Logics Alice Ba Conclusion: A post-US regional order in the making? East Asia's security futures Frans-Paul van der Putten and Elena Atanassova-Corne

The World Financial and Economic Crisis and Its Impact on China-US-Russia Triangle

The article analyzes the current state of relations in the triangle of Russia-US-China after the late-2000s global financial crisis from the point of view of their national interests, East Asian policy of the USA, China's growth and the strengthening of Russia in Asia. The author critically examines the existing approaches, foreign policy concepts and the latest initiatives which could shift the balance of power in the post-crisis period. According to the author, Russia still has all the chances to reshape its relations with China and the United States.

The Status and Evaluation of Economic Reforms of the Four-Year-Old Kim Jong Un Regime: Geopolitical Strategies and the Performance of Opening Policies

With Kim Jong Un in power for the past four years, North Korea has extensively carried out reform in the business and agriculture sectors through such measures as the 12.1, 3.16, and 5.30 discourses following the 6.28 policies in 2012, and expanded the opening of the country to the outside world by designating a total of 26 special economic zones and economic development zones. More reform has been going on which is intensified compared to 7.1 measures in 2002. The corporate decentralization policies such as the socialism corporate responsibility management system have promoted decentralization along with the measures for establishing provincial-level economic development zones. Considering the background of North Korea’s confidence over security are successful nuclear tests and satellite launches, and reflection of the political changes in Northeast Asian region, including China’s rise and Russia’s Far East Asian policy, this paper predicts there will be further expanded reforms in North Korea in the future.

China’s East Asia Policy in the Xi Jinping Era -Enduring Interests and New Developments-

China’s East Asia Policy in the Xi Jinping Era -Enduring Interests and New Developments-

A discussion of the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War in the Japanese Government and its character – In conjunction with a historic significance of the Sino-Japanese War -

This article examines the validity of a recent new theory which defines the character of the Japanese Government`s East Asia policy from the Meiji Restoration to Sino-Japanese War as non-expansionism. In particular, this article analyzes the discussion held in Japanese Government regarding the issue of the outbreak of the war in the middle of July in 1894. the results are as follows. The controversy within the Japanese Government was not about whether Japan should start the war or not, but rather, it was a problem of the active or the passive outbreak of the war. Ito Hirobumi, Mutsu Munemitsu and the military authorities insisted on the active outbreak of the war. They considered that the possibility of Russia`s interference in the Sino-Japanese War would be low and prompted the early outbreak of the war. On the other hand, the emperor Meiji and Cabinet members who insisted on the passive outbreak of the war considered the possibility of Russia`s interference would be high. Therefore, they carefully looked for an external and ostensible reason necessary for the outbreak of the war. However, they did not deny the policy on the outbreak of the war set in the middle of June. On the other hand, Ito, Mutsu, and the military authorities took the initiative in the outbreak of the war policy, but had never violated the dogmatism which was to ignore the decision of the Japanese Government`s policy. Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that this new theory is not persuasive enough to replace the conventional theory.