Earthquake Source Research Articles

Coda-derived source properties estimated using local earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara, Türkiye

Abstract. Accurate estimates of the moment magnitude of earthquakes that physically measure the earthquake source energy are crucial for improving our understanding of seismic hazard in regions prone to tectonic activity. To address this demand, a method involving coda wave modelling was employed to estimate the moment magnitudes of earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara, northwestern Türkiye. This approach enabled us to model the source displacement spectrum of 303 local earthquakes efficiently recorded at 49 regional seismic stations between 2018 and 2020 in the region. The coda wave traces of individual events were inverted across 12 frequency ranges between 0.3 and 16 Hz. The resultant coda-derived moment magnitudes were found to be in good accordance with the conventional local magnitude estimates. However, the notable move-out between local magnitude and coda-derived moment magnitude estimates for smaller earthquakes less than a magnitude of 3.5 likely occurs due to potential biases arising from incorrect assumptions for anelastic attenuation and/or the finite sampling intervals of seismic recordings. Scaling relations between the total radiated energy and seismic moment imply a non-self-similar behaviour for the earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara. Our findings suggest that larger earthquakes in the study area exhibit distinct rupture dynamics compared to smaller ones, resulting in a more efficient release of seismic energy. Hence, we introduce an empirical relationship obtained from the scatter between local magnitude and coda-derived moment magnitude estimates.

Real-time modeling of transient crustal deformation through the quantification of uncertainty deduced from GNSS data

We propose a new method for real-time uncertainty monitoring of earthquake and volcano source models using data from the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and explore its application concerning observation station placement. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan operates two main types of GNSS earth observation network system (GEONET) coordinates for crustal deformation monitoring on different time scales: post-processing analysis values and real-time GEONET analysis system for rapid deformation monitoring (REGARD). REGARD uses the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method termed real-time automatic uncertainty estimation of a coseismic single rectangular model using GNSS data (RUNE) for single rectangular fault model estimation to handle uncertainty. Thus far, no GNSS monitoring system can automatically detect transient crustal deformation events, such as volcanic activity and earthquake swarms, on timescales of a day or less. We extended RUNE and developed a core program for a new monitoring system for earthquake and volcanic source models and their uncertainties. Our program achieved automatic and stable MCMC utilization for rectangular fault, dike, Mogi, and spheroid models by increasing the computational speed, improving search efficiency, and adjusting hyperparameters. The program automatically determines the standard deviation of the likelihood function assuming a normal distribution with weights for each observation station. The calculation time was within 15 s for 1 × 106 samples on a standard 1U server. We assessed the reliability of the developed method using synthetic and observed GNSS data from the 2015 Sakurajima volcanic event. The results were consistent with the assumed model and previous studies and indicated an advantage in automatically quantifying uncertainty in a short computation time. Based on MCMC samples, we developed a new visualization algorithm to indicate areas on a map in which the number of observation stations should be expanded. We assessed the reliability using data from the 2023 Noto Peninsula earthquake [Mj 6.5]. The results indicate that the algorithm is helpful in studying the placement of stations. The above model extensions and their application are essential to achieve a rapid quantitative understanding of disaster events near urban areas and for utilizing this information in emergency response activities.Graphical

Three-dimensional velocity structure of the MS 6.0 Luxian earthquake source region and adjacent areas based on a dense seismic array

Three-dimensional velocity structure of the MS 6.0 Luxian earthquake source region and adjacent areas based on a dense seismic array

Anti-plane Yoffe-type crack in flexoelectric material

This work investigates the deformation and polarization fields around a finite anti-plane shear (mode III) crack growing dynamically under steady-state conditions. The leading tip of this finite crack breaks the material while the trailing tip heals it. This fast moving finite crack (referred to as a rupture “pulse” in the geophysics literature) propagates with a constant velocity and with the mechanical and the electrical fields that remain invariant with respect to an observer moving with the crack-tips. This problem belongs to the first type of steady state crack growth problems according to the classification of Freund. The “prototype” problem which refers to an isotropic, body subjected to fracture under tensile loading was first proposed and solved by Yoffe, while finite cracks (or shear pulses) were also analyzed by Freund and by Rice. In the above cases the material was assumed to be linear elastic. Our analysis extends these studies to flexoelectric materials, and it is both theoretical and numerical. It discusses the asymptotic structure of the crack-tip displacement and the polarization fields; it calculates the dynamic energy release rate and presents their dependence on crack-tip velocity. Comparisons are made to the available, classical, elasto-dynamic solutions and to the static case. The influence of the electrical properties of the material on strengthening is also analyzed. Dynamic fracture of flexoelectric materials is of relevance to both the study of earthquake source mechanics and to the analysis of the reliability of micro-electronic devices. This is because both rocks and ceramics are flexoelectric. Indeed, during earthquake rupture processes, dynamic, in-plane shear (Mode-II) and out of plane shear (Mode-III), cracks propagate along faults and exhibit both mechanical and electrical polarization signatures. At an entirely different length scale, flexoelectric ceramics are currently used as sensors and transducers and can experience dynamic shear failure along interfaces when subjected to dynamic loading (e.g. impact.). Failure by dynamic fracture can be detrimental to both their mechanical reliability and electrical functionality.

MODIFICATION OF THE ATTENUATION EQUATION FOR PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) IN THE NORTH SUMATERA REGION

Prediction of the empirical formula for ground acceleration is an important thing to analyze for seismic estimation in an area. This needs to be done to reduce the negative impact of earthquakes as a more appropriate mitigation effort in planning and designing earthquake-resistant buildings. Therefore, the empirical formulation from Zhaou, et al is used, which is well adapted to the seismotectonic conditions of the North Sumatra region, which has high seismic vulnerability, considering that this region is located in an active subduction zone. This advantage allows the model to more accurately predict the maximum ground acceleration (PGA) produced by earthquakes in the region. The purpose of this research is to obtain an empirical formulation of the maximum ground acceleration value based on seismic parameters such as distance, depth, and magnitude. It will also show the relationship between these parameters and the value of maximum ground acceleration or peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the North Sumatra region. This study modifies the empirical formulation of Zhao, et al data sourced from the Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) of North Sumatra in 2017-2023 with a magnitude of 3 - 6 Mw. This research uses non-linear regression with the least squares method. The results of the analysis of the empirical formula produce the constant value sought a = 1.4703 b = -0.0025, c = 20.7441, d = 0.0196, e = 0.0015, S_SS = -2.0843, and S_SL = -0.0529. An empirical formula was obtained for the North Sumatra region based on the research results. This equation can be used on a scale of 3.0 - 6.0 Mw and a distance to the earthquake source between 0 - 300 km. The relationship between each parameter of this empirical formula is that the PGA value will increase with the magnitude, and the PGA value will decrease as the epicentre distance increases.

Evaluation of ground motion models for Northern Vietnam based on ground motion records of the 2020 Mw5.0 Moc-Chau earthquake sequence

It is challenging to select ground motion models (GMMs) for seismic hazard assessments for a region with sparse recorded data. In this study, data on the 2020 Mw5 Moc-Chau earthquake and its aftershocks were used to select an appropriate GMM for northern Vietnam (NVN). The 204 strong motion records were collected from 32 seismic stations and then used to compare eleven non-Vietnamese and two simplified Vietnamese local GMMs to assess their model prediction efficiencies. Among all the candidates, the global NGA-West2 GMMs performed the best fit with the data. Our analyses revealed the possibility of damage resulting from shaking in the Hanoi metropolitan area caused by recognized earthquake sources in NVN. In our examination of total residuals of differences between the GMM predictions and observed data, the average standard deviation from ASK14 was slightly higher than the limit accepted for modern seismic hazard assessments. ASK14 was further adjusted by the spatially varying coefficients that were derived from observations ground motion of this event. The adjusted ASK14 was used to evaluate seismic risk scenarios of large earthquakes in NVN and compared with the structures’ design spectra of the Hanoi area. To increase the prediction efficiency, additional local data are required to develop a region-specific GMM for NVN. We suggest that GMM be developed in the near future by regionalizing the ASK14 GMM according to additional local data further collected from existing broadband seismic observations and new accumulating continuous recording data from Vietnam’s broadband seismic networks.

What Happens When Two Ruptures Collide?

AbstractWe investigate the interaction between two rupture fronts as they propagate toward each other and ultimately collide. This phenomenon was observed during laboratory experiments conducted on poly methyl methacrylate. Subsequently, we used numerical simulations to elucidate key aspects of these observations and draw broader conclusions. Our findings indicate that the collision of the rupture fronts generates interface waves that propagate along the sliding interface at the Rayleigh wave speed. Additionally, the rupture fronts interact with the starting and stopping S‐wave phases radiated by the opposite rupture fronts, which can locally change their velocity and generate additional interface waves. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding earthquake source phenomena.

Crustal stress near the Yakutat microplate collision from probabilistic earthquake focal mechanisms

Earthquake source characteristics provide a valuable constraint on crustal stress and regional plate tectonics. Earthquake source studies in Yukon and northern British Columbia have been limited by sparse seismic network coverage. In this work, we leverage recent seismic network improvements to estimate focal mechanisms for small and moderate-magnitude (M>2.0) earthquakes from P-wave first-motion polarity data. We invert these data within a probabilistic framework to rigorously quantify mechanism uncertainties. Subsequently, probabilistic earthquake focal mechanisms are used as input for inversions for the orientation of principal stress axes, and stress shape ratio, for spatial windows throughout the region. We implement a novel, data-driven approach to propagate focal mechanism uncertainty in stress inversion. Our results improve the spatial coverage of existing earthquake focal mechanisms and enable an orogenic-scale study of crustal stress near the Yakutat-North America collision. Overall, the region is characterized by a transpressive stress regime. Maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations exhibit a pattern orthogonal to the Yakutat collision syntaxis. Stress inversion results also reveal an abrupt change in orientation east-to-west, which we interpret as a change in stress regime across the Fairweather-Connector-Totschunda fault system that is likely related to coupling between the subducting Yakutat slab and North America. This work improves our understanding of potential earthquake hazards in southwestern Yukon and the surrounding region.

Quantitative Assessments of the Liquefaction Hazard of Soils considering Possible Strong Earthquakes in Seismically Active Regions of Russia

Introduction The seismogenic liquefaction of the soil poses a great hazard to society and the environment. Therefore, it is actively studied in many countries. In Russian engineering and seismological practice, this area is not sufficiently developed. The deterministic approach still prevails in Russian research on this topic. More modern probabilistic estimates are very rare. Methods This paper describes examples of both deterministic and probabilistic assessments of the seismogenic liquefaction hazard performed in certain areas of the Russian territory with different seismogeological conditions. Deterministic estimates were made using the Iwasaki-Seed-Finn methods and their modifications. Probability distribution functions of a random variable, the “seismic potential of liquefaction” (SPL), were developed for probabilistic estimates. These functions are regional in nature and take into account two types of uncertainties. The first is the uncertainty in achieving “critical” values by the SPL value in the event of potentially dangerous earthquake sources for a given location. The second is the uncertainty in the very occurrence of these sources in a given place for a given period of time. The “critical” SPL values are determined by the strength properties of the site soils. All estimates are based on multivariate calculations using various models of strong ground motions and seismicity. In all cases, the probability of liquefaction of water-saturated sandy and sandy-loam deposits was estimated which were found near the seabed and at depths of up to 80 m in the waters of Pogibi cape (the coast of Sakhalin island), in the districts of Sochi and Novorossiysk, as well as in land conditions (Stavropol, Krasnodar). Results The results of the research made it possible to correctly (at the quantitative level) take into account this component of the seismic hazard of the studied territories. Conclusion The variants of practical use of the obtained data are offered. An assessment of the possibilities and limitations of the developed methodology is made, and ways to improve it are outlined.

A finite volume scheme employing the multipoint flux approximation with diamond stencil for the diffusive‐viscous wave equation on general polyhedral meshes

AbstractBased on three‐dimensional seismic wave, simulations have become a pivotal aspect of seismic exploration. The diffusive‐viscous wave equation, initially proposed by Goloshubin et al., is frequently utilized to describe seismic wave propagation in fluid‐saturated media. However, obtaining numerical solutions for this equation has become an urgent issue in recent years. In this study, we present a cell‐centered finite volume scheme utilizing a multipoint flux approximation that employs a “diamond stencil” on general polyhedral meshes to address the diffusive‐viscous wave equation. Numerical tests exhibit that this new scheme attains optimal convergence, and its effectiveness is demonstrated through simulating vibrations induced by an earthquake source.

An All‐In‐One Rapid Prediction of Ground Motion Intensity Measures Hybrid Network for Multi‐Task in the North‐South Seismic Belt of China

AbstractThe north‐south seismic belt of China poses a high risk of earthquakes, necessitating the need for accurate and rapid prediction of intensity measures (IMs) to prevent and mitigate potential damage. We have developed a new multi‐task model, CRAQuake, to predict IMs for the north‐south seismic belt of China. Using initial arrival seismic waves recorded at a single station as input, CRAQuake simultaneously predicts six IMs without relying on pre‐configured parameters such as earthquake source, path, and location. The model was trained on 4,281 sets of strong motion records data sets at 822 stations and tested to show highly correlated results with the target IMs. The prediction performance continues to improve as the input initial arrival seismic wave time window increases. CRAQuake promises to enhance the accuracy and timeliness of IMs prediction in the north‐south seismic belt of China.

Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) Application For Short-Term Earthquake Precursor Analysis Using Geomagnetic Data (Case Study of Kupang Geomagnetic Station, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia)

Abstract Earthquake (EQ) precursors have been identified from ULF geomagnetic enhancements related to a moderate EQ in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Three components of geomagnetic data (X, Y, and Z) collected during January-June 2010 were analyzed. The EQ occurred on May 7, 2010, and its epicenter was 27.78 km from the KPG Geomagnetic Station. The magnitude and depth of the EQ were 5 and 11.3 km, respectively. This study investigated the energy of ULF geomagnetic signals in the frequency range of 0.03 to 0.04 Hz using SDR based on FFT. The results showed that the geomagnetic energy increased approximately three days before the EQ. Due to the significant magnitude and relative proximity of the EQ to the observation station, it can be concluded that the closer the geomagnetic station from the EQ source, the more likely it is to detect anomalies caused by the EQ. Despite the increase in geomagnetic energy, the Dst index which measures the global activity of the geomagnetic variation in low-latitude regions does not indicate any extraordinary global geomagnetic activity. This indicates that geomagnetic anomalies are most likely related to EQ events.

Identification of Potential Earthquake Source Zones in Areas of Recent Tectogenesis Based on Geological and Geomorphological Factors and Tools of Fuzzy Logic: The Greater Caucasus

Identification of Potential Earthquake Source Zones in Areas of Recent Tectogenesis Based on Geological and Geomorphological Factors and Tools of Fuzzy Logic: The Greater Caucasus

Back‐Propagating Rupture: Nature, Excitation, and Implications

AbstractRecent observations show that certain rupture phase can propagate backward relative to the earlier one during a single earthquake event. Such back‐propagating rupture (BPR) was not well considered by the conventional earthquake source studies and remains a mystery to the seismological community. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of BPR, by combining theoretical considerations, numerical simulations, and observational evidences. First, we argue that BPR in terms of back‐propagating stress wave is an intrinsic feature during dynamic ruptures; however, its signature can be easily masked by the destructive interference behind the primary rupture front. Then, we propose an idea that perturbation to an otherwise smooth rupture process may make some phases of BPR observable. We test and verify this idea by numerically simulating rupture propagation under a variety of perturbations, including a sudden change of stress, bulk or interfacial property and fault geometry along rupture propagation path. We further cross‐validate the numerical results by available observations from laboratory and natural earthquakes, and confirm that rupture “reflection” at free surface, rupture coalescence and breakage of prominent asperity are very efficient for exciting observable BPR. Based on the simulated and observed results, we classify BPR into two general types: interface wave and high‐order re‐rupture, depending on the stress recovery and drop before and after the arrival of BPR, respectively. Our work clarifies the nature and excitation of BPR, and can help improve the understanding of earthquake physics, the inference of fault property distribution and evolution, and the assessment of earthquake hazard.

Earthquake Source database for Chinese strong motion flatfile in 2007-2020

The National Strong-Motion Observation Network System of China has collected over 12000 strong-motion recordings from 2007 to December 2020. This study compiled the source-related metadata of totally 1920 earthquakes associated with assembled well-processed recordings of China. The earthquake basic information, focal mechanisms, and the fault geometry were collected from various institutes and literature. We recommended the MW values for 900 earthquakes, the fault types for 1064 earthquakes, and the fault geometries for 18 large earthquakes. We also performed the statistics analysis for establishing the empirical conversions of MW-MS, and ML, and providing the empirical relationships between MW and ruptured area, aspect ratio, respectively. Moreover, the ruptured fault geometries of large earthquakes were used to preliminarily divide all earthquakes considered into 1141 mainshocks, and 779 aftershocks. The finite-fault distances (RJB and Rrup) of strong-motion recordings from the 18 large earthquakes were calculated, and then used to yield the statistic relationships between the point-source distances (Repi and Rhyp) and finite-fault distances. We finally provided the earthquake source database freely accessible at website. The source-related metadata can be directly applied to develop the ground motion prediction equations of China.

Assessment of earthquake location uncertainties for the design of local seismic networks

The ability to estimate earthquake source locations, along with the appraisal of relevant uncertainties, is paramount in monitoring both natural and human-induced micro-seismicity. For this purpose, a monitoring network must be designed to minimize the location errors introduced by geometrically unbalanced networks. In this study, we first review different sources of errors relevant to the localization of seismic events, how they propagate through localization algorithms, and their impact on outcomes. We then propose a quantitative method, based on a Monte Carlo approach, to estimate the uncertainty in earthquake locations that is suited to the design, optimization, and assessment of the performance of a local seismic monitoring network. To illustrate the performance of the proposed approach, we analyzed the distribution of the localization uncertainties and their related dispersion for a highly dense grid of theoretical hypocenters in both the horizontal and vertical directions using an actual monitoring network layout. The results expand, quantitatively, the qualitative indications derived from purely geometrical parameters (azimuthal gap (AG)) and classical detectability maps. The proposed method enables the systematic design, optimization, and evaluation of local seismic monitoring networks, enhancing monitoring accuracy in areas proximal to hydrocarbon production, geothermal fields, underground natural gas storage, and other subsurface activities. This approach aids in the accurate estimation of earthquake source locations and their associated uncertainties, which are crucial for assessing and mitigating seismic risks, thereby enabling the implementation of proactive measures to minimize potential hazards. From an operational perspective, reliably estimating location accuracy is crucial for evaluating the position of seismogenic sources and assessing possible links between well activities and the onset of seismicity.

Separation of earthquake and hydrology signals from GRACE satellites data via independent component analysis: a case study in the Sumatra region

SUMMARY The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have observed mass migrations caused by megathrust earthquakes. Extracting earthquake-related signals from GRACE data is still a challenge due to the interference from non-earthquake sources such as terrestrial hydrology. Instead of reducing hydrological signals by potentially biased hydrological models, in this study we apply a model-free technique of independent component analysis (ICA), to separate earthquake and non-earthquake signals from non-Gaussian GRACE data. We elucidate the principles and mechanisms of ICA for the separation of earthquake and hydrology signals, employing simulated data to demonstrate the process. Our findings demonstrate that both spatial ICA and temporal ICA are highly effective in discerning earthquake related to 2004 Mw 9.2 event and hydrological signals from GRACE data in the Sumatra region. This stands in stark contrast to principal component analysis, which often encounters challenges with signal intermingling. The utility of ICA is evident in its ability to distinctly delineate coseismic and post-seismic behaviours associated with megathrust events, including the 2004 Sumatra, the 2010 Maule, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes. ICA effectively mitigates the potential for misestimation of earthquake signals, an issue that can carry substantial implications. Therefore, employing ICA facilitates the accurate extraction of earthquake-related data from satellite gravity observations—a critical process for refining earthquake source parameters and understanding Earth's rheological properties, especially when non-earthquake signals are significant and cannot be disregarded.

Greedy selection of optimal location of sensors for uncertainty reduction in seismic moment tensor inversion

We address an optimal sensor placement problem through Bayesian experimental design for seismic full waveform inversion for the recovery of the associated moment tensor. The objective is that of optimally choosing the location of the sensors (stations) from which to collect the observed data. The Shannon expected information gain is used as the objective function to search for the optimal network of sensors. A closed form for such objective is available due to the linear structure of the forward problem, as well as the Gaussian modeling of the observational errors and prior distribution. The resulting problem being inherently combinatorial, a greedy algorithm is deployed to sequentially select the sensor locations that form the best network for learning the moment tensor. Numerical results are presented to display the optimal network of sensors and how the uncertainty in the inferred seismic moment tensor contracts. The scenario of full three-dimensional velocity models or unknown earthquake source locations is treated as nuisance uncertainty, contributing to the overall uncertainty without being the focus of the inversion. This is addressed using a consensus approach over a set of realizations of the nuisance parameter. We analyzed the resulting network of stations for the moment tensor inversion under model misspecification, which reflects realistic data-generating processes.

Seismic moment of local earthquakes in the central part of the Baikal rift by the coda envelope inversion

The article presents an estimation of scalar seismic moment by the coda envelope inversion of local earthquakes recordings in the central part of the Baikal rift zone. In addition to the earthquake source parameters, the method allows us to simultaneously estimate seismic energy loss and site amplification factors for frequency bands from 0.53 to 34 Hz. Because of the compromise between spectral source energy and site responses, we estimated amplification factors for used stations relative to the "UlanUde" (UUDB) reference site located in crystalline rock. In order to estimate intrinsic and scattering attenuation we used events recorded at three broadband seismic stations and epicentral distances between 40 and 120 km. The result suggests that intrinsic absorption is dominant over scattering attenuation in the central part of the Baikal rift zone for most frequency bands, but the seismic albedo B0, expressing the contribution of scattering to the total attenuation, showed variations from 0.23 to 0.6 for frequencies below 1 Hz, with mean B0 value 0.33. Attenuation and siteamplification factors were used to estimate the seismic moment and moment magnitudes Mw of local earthquakes. The resultant moment magnitudes exhibit a good agreement with routinely reported local magnitude (ML) estimates for the study area. The coda inversion estimates of seismic moment provide stable, unbiased moment magnitudes for events that are too small to be seen at teleseismic distances.

Adjoint-based inversion for stress and frictional parameters in earthquake modeling

We present an adjoint-based optimization method to invert for stress and frictional parameters used in earthquake modeling. The forward problem is linear elastodynamics with nonlinear rate-and-state frictional faults. The misfit functional quantifies the difference between simulated and measured particle displacements or velocities at receiver locations. The misfit may include windowing or filtering operators. We derive the corresponding adjoint problem, which is linear elasticity with linearized rate-and-state friction and, for forward problems involving fault normal stress changes, nonzero fault opening, with time-dependent coefficients derived from the forward solution. The gradient of the misfit is efficiently computed by convolving forward and adjoint variables on the fault. The method thus extends the framework of full-waveform inversion to include frictional faults with rate-and-state friction. In addition, we present a space-time dual-consistent discretization of a dynamic rupture problem with a rough fault in antiplane shear, using high-order accurate summation-by-parts finite differences in combination with explicit Runge–Kutta time integration. The dual consistency of the discretization ensures that the discrete adjoint-based gradient is the exact gradient of the discrete misfit functional as well as a consistent approximation of the continuous gradient. Our theoretical results are corroborated by inversions with synthetic data. We anticipate that adjoint-based inversion of seismic and/or geodetic data will be a powerful tool for studying earthquake source processes; it can also be used to interpret laboratory friction experiments.