Historical Earthquakes Research Articles

Earthquake disaster-induced urban policies: paradoxes and challenges in Turkey

ABSTRACT Over 92% of Turkey’s land is exposed to earthquake risk: from historical earthquakes to the recent Kahramanmaras disaster, earthquakes created dramatic consequences. Consequently, there is a pressing need for urban policies aimed at mitigating earthquake risk and implementing a nation-wide urban transformation. In this regard, the central government enacted Law 6306, the ‘Law on Transformation of Areas under Disaster Risk’, in 2012. This paper analyses earthquake-oriented restructuring policies that are authorised by this law. It is argued that the law introduces a new set of risks due to its centralised, discretionary, non-transparent and non-participatory approach. While the constant threat of earthquake still endangers the lives of millions, it also creates an opportunity to exploit the urban space for speculative interest.

Quantifying Creep on the Laohushan Fault Using Dense Continuous GNSS

The interseismic behavior of faults (whether they are locked or creeping) and their quantitative kinematic constraints are critical for assessing the seismic hazards of faults and their surrounding areas. Currently, the creep of the eastern segment of the Laohushan Fault in the Haiyuan Fault Zone at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, as revealed by InSAR observations, lacks confirmation from other observational methods, particularly high-precision GNSS studies. In this study, we utilized nearly seven years of observation data from a dense GNSS continuous monitoring profile (with a minimum station spacing of 2 km) that crosses the eastern segment of the Laohushan Fault. This dataset was integrated with GNSS data from regional continuous stations, such as those from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China, and multiple campaign measurements to calculate GNSS baseline change time series across the Laohushan Fault and to obtain a high spatial resolution horizontal crustal velocity field for the region. A comprehensive analysis of this primary dataset indicates that the Laohushan Fault is currently experiencing left-lateral creep, characterized by a partially locked shallow segment and a deeper locked segment. The fault creep is predominantly concentrated in the shallow crustal region, within a depth range of 0–5.7 ± 3.4 km, exhibiting a creep rate of 1.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr. Conversely, at depths of 5.7 ± 3.4 km to 16.8 ± 4.2 km, the fault remains locked, with a loading rate of 3.9 ± 1.1 mm/yr. The shallow creep is primarily confined within 3 km on either side of the fault. Over the nearly seven-year observation period, the creep movement within approximately 5 km of the fault’s near field has shown no significant time-dependent variation, instead demonstrating a steady-state behavior. This steady-state creep appears unaffected by postseismic effects from historical large earthquakes in the adjacent region, although the deeper (far-field) tectonic deformation of the Laohushan Fault may have been influenced by the postseismic effects of the 1920 Haiyuan M8.5 earthquake.

Use of tsunami observations for resolving coseismic slip of recent and historic large submarine earthquakes

Tsunamis generated by seafloor displacements accompanying large submarine earthquakes provide sensitivity to absolute slip position and distribution for offshore faulting analogous to that of geodetic observations for landward faulting. Tsunami recordings at deep‐water and near‐shore ocean bottom pressure sensors and tide gauges, along with runup and inundation measurements, can now be reliably modeled using detailed bathymetric structures and robust numerical codes. As a result, tsunami observations now play an important role in quantifying coseismic slip distributions for large submarine earthquakes in subduction zones and other tectonic environments. Applications of joint modeling or inversion of seismic, geodetic and tsunami observations for recent major earthquakes are described, highlighting the specific contributions of the tsunami observations to source model resolution. Tsunami observations provide unique information on the up‐dip extent of earthquake coseismic slip on subduction zone megathrust faults and occurrence of near‐trench slip, which are usually not well constrained by seismic and land‐based geodetic signals. Tsunami signals also help to detect offshore slow slip that is not evident in seismic or land‐based geodetic data and to balance geophysical constraints on ruptures that extend from on‐shore to off‐shore. Tsunami runup measurements and stratigraphic deposits further provide unique constraints on large earthquake ruptures that occurred prior to modern geophysical instrumentation.

Ringing mountain ranges: Teleseismic signature of the interaction of high-frequency wavefields with near-source topography at the Degelen nuclear test site

Summary Over the last decade there has been an international effort to find methods to recover and digitize recordings from historical earthquakes and explosions that occurred during the 1950’s through to the 1980’s. Making these recordings accessible in digital format offers opportunities to study what signatures are encoded in the data, and to apply state-of-the-art techniques and methods to historical data. In this study we employ unsupervised machine learning to cluster historical teleseismic waveforms from nuclear explosions conducted at the former USSR Degelen test site, in Kazakhstan, recorded at seismic arrays in the UK (EKA), Canada (YKA), Australia (WRA) and India (GBA). In particular, we use two unsupervised algorithms to cluster waveforms using shape-based clustering: kernel k-means and k-Shape. The algorithms clearly split waveforms into distinct clusters that are spatially related, even when waveform differences are subtle, and we show with local and teleseismic numerical simulations that the clusters are related to the topography. The topography at the Degelen test site has characteristic wavelengths of 2-4 km and local simulations highlight that the seismic wavefield is trapped in reverberating mountain peaks. The location of the explosion is crucial in determining which section of the mountain range reverberates, influencing the outgoing wavefield. Teleseismic waveform simulations confirm that it is this superposition of energy leaving the reverberating peaks that results in the observed teleseismic waveform differences we observe.

Active Fault Interaction in the Eastern Betic Cordillera: A Model of Coseismic and Postseismic Stress Transfer Following Historical Earthquakes in SE Spain

AbstractThe Spanish historical earthquake catalog reveals a significant number of destructive earthquakes (Mw 6.0) that have occurred along the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (EBSZ), a major active fault system at the Eastern Betic Cordillera. However, during the last century, seismic activity in this region has been characterized by the absence of large‐magnitude events, complicating yet underlining the importance of understanding active fault interaction in the EBSZ. In this work, we focus on the northeastern half of the EBSZ and apply a similar method to Yazdi et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023tc007917). We model a series of consecutive earthquakes ( VII; Mw 5.0) between the and centuries occurring along the Alhama de Murcia, Carrascoy and Bajo Segura faults, and assess their coseismic impact as well as explore the evolution of Coulomb stress changes due to the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation on the surrounding faults. Our results support a stress‐triggering connection between subsequent events and shed light on identifying the responsible faults for some. Our findings indicate that 1673 Mw 6.0 Orihuela and 1674 Mw 6.2 Lorca earthquakes, seemingly unrelated, could have both contributed to the forthcoming Mw 5.0 earthquake clustering along the Carrascoy fault. We show that attributing the 1829 Mw 6.6 Torrevieja earthquake to the Bajo Segura fault better describes the occurrence of earthquake sequences between the mid‐ and early centuries. Finally, we propose the Alhama de Murcia and the Carrascoy faults as responsible initiators for the early ‐century earthquake sequence in the Segura Medio valley. These findings provide valuable insights for seismic hazard modeling in the region.

Numerical simulation of seismic stress evolution in the Lajishan Fault zone on the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

To analyze the triggering relationship of historical earthquakes to the 2023 Jishishan earthquake and estimate the seismic risk in the adjacent region after the earthquake, we calculate the evolution process of seismic stress generated by 11 earthquakes with MS ≥ 6.0 and 1 earthquake with MS5.7 near the source in the past 100 years. The results show that before the 2023 Jishishan earthquake, the entire Lajishan Northern Edge Fault zone was under the stress shadow generated by the 12 earthquakes. The stress reduction at the 2023 Jishishan earthquake epicenter was approximately 15.1 kPa, and the contribution of this stress shadow mainly comes from the 1920 MS8.5 Haiyuan earthquake. The coseismic stress drop at the epicenter was around −292.1 kPa, and the maximum stress drop for the 2023 Jishishan earthquake was around −346.2 kPa. The Jishishan earthquake increased the stress of the two seismic gaps in the Lajishan Northern Edge Fault by 14.7 kPa and 59.7 kPa respectively, the stress on the Lajishan Southern Edge Fault zone increased by 10.9 kPa, and the stress on the east section of Xunhua Nanshan Fault increased by 11.1 kPa. These stress increments potentially elevate the seismic hazard along these fault zones. In the future earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, attention should be paid to the seismic risk of these fault zones.

Decoding Stress Patterns of the 2023 Türkiye‐Syria Earthquake Doublet

AbstractEarthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the role of static stress change in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 19 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) and the 2023 earthquake doublet from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub‐events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, we reveal how one sub‐event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture of subsequent sub‐events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was delayed due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, propagation, and termination in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to increased seismic hazards in the Elazig‐Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF), necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.

Earthquake Sequence Simulation and Hazard Analysis in the Tianshan Orogenic Belt and Adjacent Areas

ABSTRACT The Tianshan orogenic belt is located in central Eurasia. Its tectonic deformation and seismicity are primarily influenced by the far-field effect of the India–Eurasia collision. It is one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in China. Understanding the mechanisms of earthquake nucleation in this region is a hot topic in the seismicity community. The numerical simulation of earthquake sequences is an efficient measure for comprehensively exploring earthquake occurrence characteristics, tectonic loading, and subsequence patterns. It is also an important method for predicting and mitigating earthquake disasters. This study utilized a finite-element model to investigate the evolution of regional historical earthquakes via the split-node method. Coulomb failure stress analyses from interactions of simulated historical earthquakes since 1900 indicate that the Taxkorgan fault may be prone to the next significant earthquake event.

Stress heterogeneity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and implications for the present-day plateau expansion

The eastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau has resulted in different earthquake types in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, but the mechanism remains unclear. Here, we construct a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite element model considering the topography to investigate the influence of fault geometry and rheological heterogeneity on stress fields. In our best-fitting model, the minimum principal stress is nearly vertical around the southern Huya fault zone, which is adjacent to the Longmen Shan fault zone, due to the significant mid-lower crust lateral rheological heterogeneity, and the thrust stress regime accounts for the reverse fault and thrust-dominated earthquakes. In this scenario, the eastward horizontal motion of the mid-lower crust is obstructed and facilitates thrust faulting, suggesting the limited eastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, the northern Huya fault zone, one of the terminal branches of the East Kunlun fault, accommodates the continuous eastward extrusion of the East Kunlun fault, where the stress regime under a more homogenized crust favors the strike-slip faulting process, along with the dominant strike-slip earthquakes. Moreover, the best-fitting of stress regime explains the thrust-dominated 2008 Ms. 8.0 Wenchuan and 2013 Ms. 7.0 Lushan earthquakes on the Longmen Shan fault zone. Combining geophysical and geodetic observations and model analyses, we propose that the hybrid deformation mode in the eastern Tibetan Plateau is accommodated by upper crustal shear and thrusting deformation and mid-lower crustal thickening driven by the gravitational potential energy gradient. Our results elucidate the mechanism for differences in strong historical earthquakes and, more importantly, isolate the effect of fault geometry from those of heterogeneous viscosity on crustal deformation and stress heterogeneity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

A 3D Seismotectonic Model and the Spatiotemporal Relationship of Two Historical Large Earthquakes in the Linfen Basin, North China

The Shanxi Graben is a transitional zone between the Ordos Block and North China Plain with complex structures and frequent earthquakes. Six earthquakes with M ≥ 7.0 have been recorded in the area, including the 1303 Hongtong M 8 and 1695 Linfen M 7.8 earthquakes in the Linfen Basin. Research on these two large earthquakes, closely related in time and space, is lacking. Our objective was to use deep seismic reflection profiles and 3D velocity structure data from previous research, along with seismological observation results, to interpret the geological structure near the source of the two earthquakes. A 3D geometric model of the seismogenic fault was constructed, and the relationships among the deep and shallow structures, deep seismogenic environment, and two large earthquakes were explored. Differences in seismogenic environment between the southern and northern Linfen Basin were identified. The distribution of small earthquakes in the southern Linfen Basin was scattered, and the overall distribution was at depths <25 km. The small earthquakes in the northern part of the basin were dense and concentrated at depths of 25–35 km. Low-velocity layers at an approximate depth of 15–20 km in the southern basin led to differences in seismogenesis between the two regions. Based on the area of the 3D geometric model of the Huoshan Fault, the maximum magnitude of an earthquake caused by fault rupture is Mw 7.7, so the magnitude of the 1303 Hongtong earthquake might be overestimated. Numerical simulation results of Coulomb stress showed that the 1303 Hongtong earthquake had a stress-loading effect on the 1695 Linfen earthquake. The change in Coulomb rupture stress was 1.008–2.543 bar, which is higher than the generally considered earthquake trigger threshold (0.1 bar). We created a new 3D source model of large earthquakes in the Linfen Basin, Shanxi Province, providing a reference and typical cases for risk assessment of large earthquakes in different regions of the Shanxi Graben.

Internal deformation of the North Andean Sliver in Ecuador-southern Colombia observed by InSAR

Summary In the Northern Andes, partitioning of oblique subduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American continent induces a northeastward motion of the North Andean Sliver. The strain resulting from this motion is absorbed by crustal faults, which have produced magnitude 7 + earthquakes historically in the Andean Cordillera of Ecuador and southern Colombia. In order to quantify the strain in that area, we derive a high-resolution surface velocity map using InSAR time-series processing. We analyzed 6 to 8 years of Sentinel-1 data and combined different satellite line-of-sight directions to produce a reliable velocity map in the East direction. We use interpolated GNSS data to express the velocity map with respect to Stable South America and remove the long-wavelength pattern due to the post-seismic deformation following the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales earthquake. The InSAR velocity map finds high E-W shortening strain rates along N-S trending structures within the Western Cordillera and the Interandean valley, with little deformation taking place east of them. This result strengthens the previous proposition of a ∼350 km long Quito-Latacunga tectonic block, forming a restraining bend in the overall right-lateral strike-slip fault system accommodating the northeastward escape motion of the North Andean Sliver. However, the high spatial resolution provided by InSAR indicates that previously proposed boundaries for this block need to be revised. In particular, InSAR results highlight high strain rate (>300 nstrain/yr) along undescribed active structures, south and west of the proposed limits for the Quito-Latacunga block, respectively in Peltetec and Ibarra regions. Interestingly, the two areas with the largest strain rates spatially correlate with the proposed areas of large historical earthquakes. Modeling of the InSAR and GNSS velocities in these areas suggests shallow coupling and high slip rates on structures which, previously, were not identified as active. We also demonstrate a slow-down of the shallow aseismic slip on the Quito fault after the Pedernales earthquake, suggesting that stress changes following large megathrust events might trigger transient slip behaviors on crustal faults. The high-resolution strain map provided by this work provides a new basis for future tectonic models in the Ecuadorian and southern Colombian Andes, and will contribute to the seismic hazard assessment in this highly populated area of the Andes.

About the “predecessors” of the 2023 February earthquakes, Turkey

In the frame of a comprehensive investigation of historical earthquakes of Anatolia, we propose a re-appraisal of four major earthquakes/sequences occurred after 1000 AD (1114/1115, 1269, 1513/1514 and 1544), which could be considered as predecessors of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023. The main purpose is to provide reliable parameter values for the investigated earthquakes. Our investigation consisted of: retrieving and analysing the main primary historical sources; identifying the localities mentioned and assessing macroseismic intensity; determining earthquake parameters (location, magnitude and – where possible – the source azimuth) with the repeatable and transparent “Boxer” method, after properly calibrating the relevant coefficient by considering recent earthquakes of the Anatolian region. Our investigations show that the 1114 earthquake can be considered as a predecessor of the main 2023 earthquake, although the latter ruptured a larger area; the earthquake of 1544 may be a predecessor of the second event of 2023, February; and that the background of the 1513/1514 earthquake is so poor that a lot of care is required while handling the currently available parameters. In conclusion, we also compare our results with the findings of paleoseismological investigation and discuss how they contribute to understanding the rupture history of the East Anatolian Fault.

Historical earthquakes in the Holy Cross Mountains, Poland, true or false? Unveiling insights through archaeoseismology

The Holy Cross Mountains are an intraplate range with a limited historical seismicity record. The only documented earthquakes include the February 6, 1837 M 4.3 event, which caused ground cracks, and swarm events from February 1932 (M ∼ 3.5), likely triggered by the Holy Cross Fault (HCF) or sub-perpendicular faults. The apparent lack of older destructive earthquakes in historical catalogs motivated us to conduct archaeoseismological research to improve seismic hazard assessment, risk mitigation, and urban planning strategies, ultimately benefiting local communities. We focused on the 12th-century Collegiate church of Saint Martin in Opatów, located near the Holly Cross Fault (HCF). We report numerous damage features, such as leaning, bulging, and twisted walls, dropped keystones in Romanesque and Gothic portals, strike-slip displacements of these portals, surplus, oversized buttresses, and walled-up portals. While some deformations may result from humid loess instability and war destructions, our data, combined with historical records, suggest two to three seismic events in the past 800 years as a cause. We argue these deformations were co-seismically triggered by either large far-field events, like the 1259 AD earthquake, or local, shallow small-magnitude events significantly amplified by site effects. This indicates potential seismic activity in the Holy Cross Mountains during Medieval times. The absence of historical records does not imply the absence of earthquakes.

How water, temperature, and seismicity control the preconditioning of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel)

Abstract. The anticipation of massive rock slope failures is a key mitigation strategy in a changing climate and environment requiring a precise understanding of pre-failure process dynamics. Here we exploit >4 years of multi-method high-resolution monitoring data from a large rock slope instability close to failure. To quantify and understand the effect of possible drivers (water from rain and snowmelt, internal rock fracturing, and earthquakes), we correlate slope displacements with environmental data, local seismic recordings, and earthquake catalogues. During the snowmelt phase, displacements are controlled by meltwater infiltration with high correlation and a time lag of 4–9 d. During the snow-free summer, rainfall induces accelerations with a time lag of 1–16 h for up to several days without a minimum activation rain sum threshold. Rock fracturing, linked to temperature and freeze–thaw cycles, is predominantly near the surface and unrelated to displacement rates. A classic Newmark analysis of recent and historic earthquakes indicates a low potential for immediate triggering of a major failure at the case site, unless it is already very close to failure. Seismic topographic amplification of the peak ground velocity (PGV) at the summit ranges from a factor of 2–11 and is spatially heterogeneous, indicating a high criticality of the slope. The presented in-depth monitoring data analysis enables a comprehensive rockfall driver evaluation and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in precipitation intensity and frequency, may alter the preconditioning of major rock slope failures.

Studying Past Earthquakes with Modern Techniques: Ground-Motion Simulations for the 11 January 1693 Noto Earthquake in Italy

Abstract The 1693 Noto earthquake, which struck on 11 January, is one of the Italy’s largest and most devastating earthquakes. According to the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue, it reached a maximum intensity of 11 on the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg scale and had an estimated magnitude of M 7.3. Nevertheless, its precise location and source definition remain subjects to debate due to the complexity of the seismic sequence and lack of geological evidence. A series of potential seismic sources differing in location, dimension, and kinematics have been proposed in the literature based on seismotectonic data and interpretations. The goal of this work is to perform a retrospective experiment to verify which of the proposed seismic sources have a better fit with the observed intensity data. To do so, novel simulation techniques are used to study this historical earthquake. We generated ground-motion scenarios for each proposed source model through a stochastic finite-fault simulation approach. Then, the simulated ground-motion parameters were converted to intensities using two different ground-motion intensity conversion equations for Italy. Finally, we compared these converted intensities with the observed intensity data in terms of normalized root mean square errors and converted intensities from ground-motion models. Our results generally show good consistency between converted intensities from the simulated and predicted ground motions, whereas the observed intensities fit better to converted ones from the peak ground velocity rather than peak ground acceleration. Our analysis reveals that the source model reproducing the best of the macroseismic data of the Noto earthquake is the Canicattì–Villasmundo fault system with a magnitude of 7.1.

Serviceability fragility assessment of non-seismically designed railway viaducts in Turkey under near-field and far-field earthquakes

While many railway viaducts still in use in Turkish railway networks are located on active fault zones that produced historical destructive earthquakes, they are not seismically designed in accordance to current standards. This study aims to provide a better understanding about the serviceability fragility of such systems by conducting detailed probability-based seismic assessments under near-field and far-field earthquakes. To achieve this, firstly, 3D finite element models of a range of selected viaducts in Turkey were generated based on their original design drawings. The developed FE models were validated by comparing the analytical modal frequencies with the results of in-situ dynamic tests involving a series of acceleration measurements. Nonlinear time history analyses were then carried out under 25 near-field and 25 far-field real three-component ground motion recordings to obtain the seismic response of each selected viaduct. Subsequently, probabilistic seismic demand models were defined using linear regression analysis to determine relationships between engineering demand parameters (EDPs) and ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s (Sa (1.0)) were used as the IM parameter, while the maximum lateral displacement of the bridge spans for different service velocities defined in the Eurocode was considered as the EDP at serviceability damage state. Finally, analytical fragility curves for all the selected railway viaducts were developed considering maximum damage probability for the IM levels. The results, in general, demonstrate the seismic vulnerability of the existing viaducts in Turkey. It is shown that while at low speed limits the viaducts exposed to far-field ground motions were more vulnerable than those under near-field ground motions, at high speed limits the viaducts subjected to near-field ground motions were more vulnerable. Also, it is seen that reinforced concrete and masonry viaducts are generally more vulnerable to earthquakes than the steel viaducts. The outcomes of this study should prove useful for the seismic risk assessment, loss estimation and rehabilitation of the railway transportation networks in future studies.

Timing and characteristics of co-seismic surface ruptures in the Yadong rift, southern Tibet

The Yadong-Gulu rift (YGR) is the most prominent and seismically active of the seven main ∼ NS-trending rifts in southern Tibet. Although the morphology of the southern YGR clearly indicates it has witnessed large earthquakes in the past, and despite its significant late Quaternary throw rates of ∼1 mm/yr, no large historical or instrumental earthquakes have been reported, including in the southernmost Pagri half-graben, in contrast to the northern part of the rift which is highly seismically active. Here, geomorphic characteristics helped us constrain the timing of a paleoearthquake that produced surface ruptures along the Pagri half-graben, used to document its past activity and evaluate its seismic hazard. We demonstrate that the co-seismic surface ruptures extend for ∼65 km along the Yadong normal fault, with a maximum vertical displacement ranging from 2 to 4.0 ± 0.1 m. Based on empirical relationships between magnitude, surface rupture length, and fault displacement, we suggest that this event may correspond to a Mw6.9–7.2 earthquake. Combined with previous studies, our radiocarbon (14C) and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages from three pits within the earthquake wedge across the surface ruptures constrain the paleoearthquake timing at 3470-2056 years BP. We suggest that the southern YGR currently has a high regional seismic hazard for a Mw6.8–7.1 earthquake, considering the significant throw rates and long timespan since the last strong event. Furthermore, we suggest that such different seismic activity and throw/extension rates between the southern and northern YGR may be explained by different upper crustal rheology behavior and mid-crustal structure.

Surface Rupture of the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura Earthquake: Triggered Flexural‐Slip Faulting in the Pamir‐Tien Shan Collision Zone

AbstractThis study investigates the intricate relationship between earthquake sources and seismogenic surface ruptures in a complex tectonic setting with active faults in the continental collision zone between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir Mountains in Central Asia. The study focuses on the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura earthquake along the Pamir Frontal Thrust, where the seismogenic surface rupture occurred unexpectedly within the footwall and 10 km away from the source thrust fault. This discrepancy raises questions about the interactions and potential trigger mechanisms between tectonic structures during earthquake rupture. Using unmanned aerial vehicle photography and field inspection, our investigation integrates detailed fault‐zone mapping with tectono‐geomorphic observations to unravel potential interactions between subsurface structures and surface‐deformation phenomena. Our findings suggest that a combination of slip along deep‐seated basement faults and remotely triggered flexural slip within folded Paleogene strata led to surface rupture of overlying Quaternary glacial deposits. Geomorphological and geochronological analyses coupled with systematic displacement measurements furthermore reveal evidence of similar past ruptures within the regional fault system, suggesting a recurrence interval of 1.7 kyr and a Holocene vertical offset rate of 0.4 mm/yr. The analysis of the Nura rupture zone contributes significantly to evaluate linkages between surface and subsurface structures regarding fault‐zone behavior and seismic hazard assessments. Importantly, our results highlight the critical role of on‐site investigations in regions with poorly defined surface ruptures, where misinterpretation may lead to the underestimation of the impact of seismic events and limitations in assessing earthquake history and strain accumulation.

DEVELOPMENT OF PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION USING A NON-LINEAR APPROACH TO EVALUATE LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL IN SEI WAMPU BRIDGE, LANGKAT, NORTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA

The design of building structures requires compliance with seismic codes and all their consequences. Based on geotechnical investigation reports, the construction of Sei Wampu Bridge in Langkat, North Sumatra, Indonesia, is located in an area where the soil layers are predominantly sand with shallow water levels because of its proximity to a river and is a high earthquake zone due to the Semangko fault. That condition will affect the potential of liquefaction occurring. This study aims to identify the liquefaction potential in the Sei Wampu Bridge. Based on Indonesian National Standard (SNI) 1726-2019, sites prone to liquefaction are categorized as site class-specific soil (F) and requires site-specific response analysis (SSRA) methods. Non-linear analysis 1-D is chosen to propagate earthquake waves with the software DEEPSOIL V7. The input parameter for soil movement utilizes an average spectral matching method with a minimum of 7 pairs of soil movement selected from the earthquake recording website, PEER Ground Motion Database. The selection of earthquake considers a 1000-year earthquake load return period, or a 7% probability exceeded within 75 years. Site-specific response analysis (SSRA) resulted in a peak ground acceleration (PGA) value for each borehole depth used in liquefaction potential analysis. Using a historical earthquake scenario with a 6.3 Mw shows that the research location has liquefaction potential at 0 m-15 m deep with high vulnerability levels, where the LPI value reaches 36.21.

The Hydrological Impact of Historical and Modern Earthquakes in Central-Southern Italy: Data Analysis and Seismotectonic Insights

Abstract We present the results of research conducted on the hydrological effects induced by historical and modern earthquakes in the central-southern Apennines of Italy. We investigated thirty-nine seismic events of magnitude between M 4.1 and 7.1 that occurred between 1688 and 2020. We collected 526 observations of coseismic and postseismic hydrological effects such as increase or decrease in streamflow, variations in the water levels in wells, formation and/or disappearance of springs and changes in their discharge, and changes in the chemical and physical characteristics of waters. More than half of the observations were new data unpublished to date in the scientific literature. We find that the ease of finding data of interest is strongly influenced by the historical period in which the seismic event occurred. We summarize the methodology of data retrieval and its classification and present examples and maps of coseismic hydrological changes associated with individual seismic events. Most of our novel data derive from seismic postcards, macroseismic questionnaires, and hydrographic annals. However, a nonnegligible set of data comes from a careful rereading of sources—both historical and modern—that were at first considered fruitless. The majority of data concerns an excess flow in streams and springs, and physical–chemical variations such as turbidity, an increase in temperature, and gas emission. We also find that the maximum distance to which seismically induced streamflow responses have been reported can be related to the earthquake magnitude and use this distance to derive an alternative magnitude for some of the strongest earthquakes of our dataset. Finally, we show a potential application of this type of research because the distribution of coseismic hydrological changes can provide constraints in discriminating between the causative faults of strong historical seismic events for which the instrumental data are scarce or not available.