Earthquake Generation Research Articles

Uncovering implicit Seismogenic associated regions towards promoting urban resilience

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to urban environments, highlighting the need for enhanced seismic resilience. To improve understanding of earthquake dynamics and the interplay of seismic activity across space, this study introduces a novel approach for identifying associated regions that exhibit interdependence seismic behavior, revealing a network structure of earthquake interplays. This model was applied to earthquakes exceeding 3.0 Mw in Iran (1976–2023), using a 1° × 1° grid. Monthly and seasonal timespans were evaluated to capture potential short-term and long-term interactions. The model revealed a network of interdependent seismic regions in southern and southwestern Iran, predominantly located within the Zagros belt. Notably, the strongest associations were observed between spatial units 45 and 36, located approximately 6° apart in southern Iran. These units exhibited significant association in both monthly and seasonal scenarios, with support values of 0.28 and 0.65, and average confidence values of 0.58 and 0.84, respectively. The second significant bilateral relation was detected between neighboring spatial units 22 and 36, with support values of 0.26 and 0.59, and average confidence values of 0.57 and 0.80, respectively. The recognized structure was compared to the established seismotectonic zoning. This network aligns with established seismotectonic provinces, particularly in the seasonal scenario. The model also identified potential interactions between distinct zones in the monthly scenario, highlighting areas where urban development strategies might need reevaluation. Additionally, the analysis revealed implicit causal relationships between spatial units, pinpointing areas susceptible to or influencing seismic activities elsewhere. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of crustal structure, earthquake propagation, and the potential for seismic activity to trigger earthquakes in nearby or distant areas. This knowledge is crucial for developing effective strategies to build earthquake-resilient cities.

Localization and Delocalization During Seismic Slip

AbstractThe thickness of a seismic slip layer controls style and rate of rupture propagation, frictional heating, weakening, and energy budget of earthquakes. Slip layer thickness changes dynamically with feedbacks between temperature rise, roughness, damage, and fluid pressurization. Natural faults have complex slip histories, ambiguating which layer thicknesses represent a record of seismic slip. The thickness of proven paleoseismic slip layers in nature are 1 mm–1 cm. Thicker slip layers do not get hot enough to retain coseismic frictional temperature anomalies and thereby prevent the detection of big earthquakes using current methods. We suggest that delocalization—the spontaneous increase in slipping layer thickness during slip—plays a role in coseismic healing and cause biases in the rock record of earthquakes. Recognizing the importance of feedbacks affecting slipping layer thickness is critical to understanding strength and stress variations during earthquakes and to correctly interpreting earthquake source parameters from exhumed faults.

Semi-constant source radius and variable stress drop of repeating earthquakes: A fluid-invasion hypothesis for earthquake generation

Summary Earthquakes with very similar waveforms have been recognized as repeating earthquakes, or repeaters, which are interpreted as repeated ruptures of an isolated, frictionally locked asperity patch that are caused by stress loading due to aseismic slip in the surrounding stable regime of the fault. Ideally, the repeated ruptures of the same asperity result in the same source dimension and stress drop. However, significant variations in the stress drop have been observed during fluid-injection experiments even for a single repeater sequence. This study focuses repeater sequences in three different tectonic regimes beneath the Japanese Islands and investigates variations in the source dimension and stress drop in the same repeater sequences. The obtained results show that the variation in the source radius is mostly within 20–30% in individual repeater sequences but the stress drop is largely variable by one order of magnitude or more. We propose a fluid-invasion hypothesis to explain our observations. When pore-fluid pressures gradually invade into an asperity, the edge of the asperity tends to behave as aseismic because of the reduction of the effective normal stress to values below the critical value of effective normal stress, which makes the source radius somewhat smaller. Simultaneously, the amount of the fluid invasion into the asperity fluctuates the shear strength of the asperity, with the stress drop being smaller for higher pore-fluid pressures. The reduced source radius and stress drop expected from the fluid-invasion hypothesis can explain positive correlations between the source radius and seismic moment. We propose a conceptual model for earthquake generation by involving the triggering of aseismic slip by the enhancement of pore-fluid pressures and subsequent rupture of asperity by the stress loading due to the aseismic slip, which can be potentially applied to the genesis of repeaters and non-repeaters.

Electromagnetic and Radon Earthquake Precursors

Earthquake forecasting is arguably one of the most challenging tasks in Earth sciences owing to the high complexity of the earthquake process. Over the past 40 years, there has been a plethora of work on finding credible, consistent and accurate earthquake precursors. This paper is a cumulative survey on earthquake precursor research, arranged into two broad categories: electromagnetic precursors and radon precursors. In the first category, methods related to measuring electromagnetic radiation in a wide frequency range, i.e., from a few Hz to several MHz, are presented. Precursors based on optical and radar imaging acquired by spaceborne sensors are also considered, in the broad sense, as electromagnetic. In the second category, concentration measurements of radon gas found in soil and air, or even in ground water after being dissolved, form the basis of radon activity precursors. Well-established mathematical techniques for analysing data derived from electromagnetic radiation and radon concentration measurements are also described with an emphasis on fractal methods. Finally, physical models of earthquake generation and propagation aiming at interpreting the foundation of the aforementioned seismic precursors, are investigated.

Low‐Viscosity Zones Beneath the Coso Volcanic Field Revealed by Postseismic Deformations Following the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake

AbstractThe rheology of materials near fault zones controls the deformation of the fault, thus playing an important role in the rupture propagation of large earthquakes. Here, we model the postseismic deformation in the first 4 years following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake, and probe the laterally variable lower‐crustal viscosity and fault afterslip, using a combined model incorporating afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation. Modeling results reveal that laterally variable low‐viscosity zones (1017∼1018 Pa·s) beneath the Coso Volcanic Field are required to explain the observations well. These low‐viscosity materials may reduce the width of the brittle part of the fault, thus affecting the northwestward propagation of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake rupture and the spatial pattern of nearby seismicity. Numerical simulations reveal that the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation of the event will cause contractional strain in the upper‐crustal magma reservoirs, which may counteract the extensional strain caused by the coseismic rupture.

Seismotectonic segmentation controlled by magmatic underplating in the central-southern segment of Tanlu fault zone, eastern China

Intracontinental earthquakes usually cause severe casualties and property damage, yet their mechanism is still unclear. The TanLu Fault Zone (TLFZ) has been a typical large intracontinental strike-slip fault in eastern China since the Quaternary, which has hosted many large earthquakes (M ≥ 6). Generation of large earthquakes is generally closely related to the heterogeneities on and adjacent to the fault plane, which may result from different composition and inclusions of fluids. In this study, we use the receiver function method to obtain detailed distributions of Poisson's ratio and crustal thickness in the central-southern segment of the TLFZ, where the M 8.5 TanCheng earthquake occurred in 1668. We found that the distribution of earthquakes is strongly correlated with the crustal structures, both of which exhibit clear segmentation. The strongly damaged zone (with earthquake intensity ≥ 10) of the 1668 TanCheng earthquake and present small-to-moderate earthquakes are generally located above a segment that has shallower Moho and particularly higher Poisson's ratio. We propose that the high Poisson's ratio may be caused by intrusive mafic rocks in the ductile lower crust, which plays a role as local stress concentrators and subsequently leads to large intracontinental earthquakes.

TECTONOPHYSICAL ZONING OF ACTIVE FAULTS OF THE BAIKAL RIFT SYSTEM

Tectonophysical zoning of active faults of the Baikal rift system (BRS) was performed based on the degree of hazard caused by the generation of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and higher. The first basis for this procedure was the results of the natural stress state reconstruction, earlier performed from seismological indicators of rupture deformations (earthquake focal mechanisms). The second important element of fault zoning was electronic maps of active faults of Eurasia hosted on the GIN RAS sever. Within the algorithmic framework for Rebetsky’s method of cataclastic analysis, both of these datasets allowed calculating the Coulomb stresses for the segments of the BRS faults. During the study, a development of the cataclastic method has been carried out in using a diagram of brittle fracture as the Mohr–Coulomb model, considering a decrease in the range of positive Coulomb stress values with an increase in effective normal stress levels. Such an approach provides a more reliable identification of the fault segments with the maximum Coulomb stress levels. The performed calculations showed that in the BRS crust there are several up to 50 km long fault segments having critically high (80–100 % of the maximum) and high (40–80 % of the maximum) Coulomb stress levels. It is these corebased hazardous zones that are considered as places where seismogenic ruptures of future М>7.0 earthquakes may start. There have been distinguished three zones that present such hazard: 1) in the western segment of the BRS in the western part of the Tunka Valley in the Tunka, Khamardaban-Mondy and Baikal-Mondy fault systems; 2) in the Selenga River delta in the Proval, Delta, Ust-Selenga and Sakhalin-Enkhauk fault systems; 3) within the northeastern flank of the BRS on the fault system of the Muyakan basin (along the North Muya ridge). It is proposed to perform tectonophysical monitoring of changes in the stress state of these three zones and make observations of their surface motions using remote sensing methods.

Assessing the geometry of the Main Himalayan thrust in central Nepal: A thermokinematic approach

Abstract Since the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, the relationship between the geometry of megathrusts and the control it exerts over the nucleation and propagation of major earthquakes has become an important topic of debate. In this study, we integrate new geologic mapping, a newly interpreted cross section from the Daraundi valley of central Nepal, two published cross sections from the neighboring Marsyangdi and Budhi Gandaki valleys, and a suite of 270 thermochronometric ages to create an integrated and validated three-dimensional kinematic model for the central Nepal Himalaya. We use this model to investigate the assertion that the westward propagation of the Gorkha rupture was restricted by deep-seated structures in the Main Himalayan thrust. The integrated kinematic model based on these cross sections indicates that the ~30 km southward step in the Main Central thrust system mapped in the Daraundi valley, along with the corresponding step in the distribution of reset muscovite (Ar-Ar) ages, is not the result of a lateral structure in the modern Main Himalayan thrust. Instead, the step in the surface geology is the result of a considerably shorter Trishuli thrust sheet in the Daraundi transect (~30 km compared to between 105 and 120 km in the other transects). The corresponding southward step in the distribution of reset muscovite Ar-Ar ages is the result of the Lesser Himalayan duplex being completely translated over the Main Himalayan thrust ramp, elevating and exposing rocks heated to >400 °C farther south in the Daraundi transect. Our integrated model also highlights the 10–15 km of out-of-sequence thrusting that occurs on the Main Central thrust system across central Nepal. Importantly, these out-of-sequence thrusts sole directly into the modern Main Himalayan thrust ramp, and, together with the distribution of reset zircon (U-Th)/He and apatite fission track ages, show that the modern ramp is distinctly linear from east to west, with no support for a lateral structure at the ramp or to the south.

Three‐Dimensional Electrical Resistivity Structure Beneath a Strain Concentration Area in the Back‐Arc Side of the Northeastern Japan Arc

AbstractIntraplate earthquakes occur more frequently in the Japanese islands than in other regions. Large intraplate earthquakes in the island arc preferentially occur in strain concentration zones detected by geological and geodetic studies. Crustal heterogeneity plays a crucial role in generating large intraplate earthquakes and strain concentrations. Thus, we elucidated the crustal heterogeneities beneath a strain concentration area on the back‐arc side of the northeastern Japan Arc based on electrical resistivity, which is sensitive to weak zones in the crust. By deploying wideband magnetotelluric surveys, we revealed the three‐dimensional electrical resistivity structure in the crust, suggesting the coexistence of two different types of strain‐concentration mechanisms in the strain‐concentration area. The shallow conductive layers and lower‐crustal conductors appear to act as low‐elastic‐modulus and low‐viscosity areas, respectively, and are responsible for the strain concentration. We found shallow and lower‐crustal conductors in the strain concentration zone revealed by geological studies. Those conductive areas are considered to act as mechanically weak zones and cause stress loading on the brittle pars of pre‐existing faults, resulting in large intraplate earthquakes. The resultant earthquakes presumably contribute to strain accumulation on a geological timescale. In addition, a spatial correlation between the epicenters of large intraplate earthquakes and edges of lower‐crustal conductors implies the contribution of the fluids in the lower crust to the generation of large earthquakes. We also identified vertical conductors ranging from the lower crust to Quaternary volcanoes, which may indicate trans‐crustal magmatic systems under these volcanoes.

Impact of climatic anomalies and reservoir induced seismicity on earthquake generation using Federated Learning

In this article, impact of climatic anomalies and artificial hydraulic loading on earthquake generation has been studied using federated learning (FL) technique and a model for the prediction of earthquake has been proposed. Federated Learning being one of the most recent techniques of machine learning (ML) guarantees that the proposed model possesses the intrinsic ability to handle all concerns related to data involving data privacy, data availability, data security, and network latency glitches involved in earthquake prediction by restricting data transmission to the network during different stages of model training. The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of artificial stresses and climatic anomalies on increase and decrease in regional seismicity. Experimental verification of proposed model has been carried out within 100 km radial area from 34.708o N, 72.5478o E in Western Himalayan region. Regional data of atmospheric temperature, air pressure, rainfall, water level of reservoir and seismicity has been collected on hourly bases from 1985 till 2022. In this research, four client stations at different points within the selected area have been established to train local models by calculating time lag correlation between multiple data parameters. These local models are transmitted to central server where global model is trained for generating earthquake alert with ten days lead time alarming a specific client that reported high correlation among all selected parameters about expected earthquake.

Temporal Characteristics of the February 6, 2023 MW7.8, Turkey Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

The devastating earthquake with moment magnitude MW7.8, (local magnitude ML=7.5) which occurred in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, westwards of Gaziantep, Turkey on February 6, 2023 was followed by an intensive aftershock activity. Studying time distribution of aftershocks is important for understanding physics of the earthquake generation process.
 In the present study temporal pattern of aftershock sequence of the 2023 MW7.8 Turkey earthquake is analyzed. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. The temporal clustering of aftershocks is a dominant non-random element of the seismicity, so when the clusters are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process.
 On the assumption that aftershocks are distributed in time as a non-stationary Poisson process, we use the maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters (K, c and p) of the modified Omori formula. For testing the goodness of fit between the aftershock occurrence and different statistical models, a transformation from the time scale t to a frequency-linearized time scale τ is applied. Akaike's information criteria is used to select the best model for the temporal distribution of aftershocks.
 It has been found that temporal distribution of the 2023 Turkey earthquake aftershocks is dominated by the classic power law decay in time and suggests the existence of secondary aftershock activity.

Seismic Reliability Analysis of an Excavation Slope Based on Direct Probability Integral Method

China, situated in the circum-Pacific seismic belt, experiences frequent seismic activity and faces diverse geological conditions, making structural stability of paramount importance, especially under seismic conditions. The majority of current earthquake generation methods do not consider the nonstationary nature of earthquakes. This paper introduces a spectral representation-random function model for generating nonstationary earthquakes, effectively simulating stochastic seismic ground motion. Furthermore, traditional slope stability analysis methods are deterministic and incapable of providing probabilistic assessments of slope instability. Therefore, this paper proposes a unified framework for static and dynamic structural reliability analysis based on the direct probability integration method, quantifying the impact of stochastic seismic ground motion on the dynamic reliability of slope stability. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to an excavation slope in Nanjing, using sliding displacement and safety factors as evaluation criteria to study the reliability of the slope under the influence of stochastic seismic events.

Identification of atmospheric ozone generated from seismic activity during the occurrence of multiple earthquakes across Japan in 2022

Ground-level atmospheric ozone (tropospheric ozone) is a well-known indicator of photochemical air pollution. Atmospheric ozone may also be an indicator of earthquake generation. Ground-level observations of atmospheric ozone at multiple sites were conducted in this study at the time of multiple earthquake occurrences in Japan in 2022. As the result of this study, ozone peaks of unknown origin were detected during the occurrence of multiple earthquakes across Japan in 2022. The level of these ozone peaks began to increase from a few days to a few hours before each earthquake, reaching a maximum concentration coincident with the time of earthquake generation. ‘Unknown ozone’ were detected at near earthquake epicentres, except in the case of deep earthquakes. The ‘unknown ozone’ were also associated with earthquake seismic intensities, which were monitored at seismograph stations in various Japanese cities, towns, and villages. A laboratory experiment by Baragiola et al. (2011) indicated that ppm levels of ozone can be generated in air by the crushing and grinding of terrestrial crustal rocks, generated by exo-electrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during rock fracture. Baragiola et al. (2011) proposed a hypothesis whereby atmospheric ozone could be generated via rock fracturing during the occurrence of earthquakes. This hypothesis could explain the ozone peaks correlating with multiple Japanese earthquakes observed in this study. The significance of atmospheric ozone generated by seismic activity is discussed in terms of it being a possible indicator of earthquake generation and prediction.

Geochemistry of Geothermal Fluids in the Three Rivers Lateral Collision Zone in Northwest Yunnan, China: Relevance for Tectonic Structure and Seismic Activity

The Three Rivers Lateral Collision Zone (TRLCZ), situated at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, is a crucial frontier where materials from the plateau flow southeastward. This study extensively investigated the hydrochemical characteristics and origin of helium and carbon isotopes in 73 thermal springs within the TRLCZ. The analysis revealed dominant processes, including carbonate and silicate interactions, resulting in elevated concentrations of HCO3− and Na+. The impact of Ca/Mg-rich minerals, particularly dolomite, influenced the cation composition. Additionally, gypsum dissolution, notably in the Lancangjiang Fault and Weixi–Qiaohou Fault, was highlighted through Ca/SO4 ratios. The positive correlation between SO42− and Cl− indicated dilution by shallow cold water, explaining the lower SO42− content in the Jingshajiang–Zhongdian Fault and Nujiang Fault compared to the Weixi–Qiaohou Fault and Lancangjiang Fault. The circulation depth of thermal spring water varied, with the northern Weixi–Qiaohou Fault exhibiting the shallowest circulation depth (~3 km), while the Jingshajiang–Zhongdian Fault and southern segments of the Nujiang Fault displayed deeper depths—ranging from 4 to 7 km. A positive correlation between the circulation depth and fault activity was also observed. The Rc/Ra ratios of free gas samples, predominantly indicating crustal origin, varied from 0.01 Ra to 0.53 Ra. Elevated Rc/Ra ratios in the research area suggested potential minor additions of mantle helium through faults and fractures. Crustal limestone was identified as the primary source of CO2-rich samples, with δ13CCO2 values ranging from −1.6‰ to −7.2‰, while trace amounts of mantle CO2 were found. The spatial distribution of the H2 concentration, CO2 concentration, He concentration, and mantle He proportions in gases indicated that higher values of He concentration and mantle He% always occur near sampling points with deeper circulation depths. However, no similar correlation was observed for H2 and CO2. Most earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater occurred near the regions with high values of mantle source He release, highlighting the critical role of mantle fluids in the occurrence of earthquakes in the region. In this study, a fluid circulation model was developed to describe the process of fluid (water and gas) circulation migration and earthquake generation in the TRLCZ.

Seasonal Modulation of Crustal Seismicity in Northeastern Japan Driven by Snow Load

AbstractNumerous studies have reported that surface hydrological loading can seasonally modulate seismicity rates at crustal depths. For example, substantial winter snow accumulation occurs across the Japanese Islands, and these snowy regions appear to have seasonally modulated the occurrence of previous large inland earthquakes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of seasonal stress changes on crustal seismicity to deepen our understanding of earthquake generation. Here we constrain seasonal changes in the surface load across northeastern Japan using Global Navigation Satellite System surface displacements and evaluate the potential relationship between temporal trends in inland seismicity and estimated seasonal stress changes. The spatial distribution of the seasonal surface load is consistent with snow depth along the Sea of Japan. The inland seismicity beneath northeastern Japan is modestly modulated by the seasonal stress changes that are induced by the annual snow load. However, this seasonal response is weaker than that in other regions. This weak modulation may be due to the small surface‐load‐induced stress perturbation relative to the long‐term‐averaged stressing rate and/or the limited presence of crustal fluids to trigger seismicity in Japan.

Moment-dependent rupture properties of deep-focus earthquakes in the Izu-Bonin subduction zone

SUMMARY The physical mechanisms controlling deep-focus earthquakes, or those observed at depths greater than 300 km, remain enigmatic. The leading processes by which deep-focus earthquakes are thought to occur include transformational faulting, thermal runaway and dehydration embrittlement, but distinguishing observations in support of one or more prevailing mechanisms are needed. In this study, we use a modified back-projection method, data recorded by the Hi-net array in Japan and a 3-D velocity model to produce source images of 19 deep-focus earthquakes within the Izu-Bonin subduction zone. We find that the rupture properties and fault plane orientations of imaged events separate according to reported moment magnitude, indicating the distinct operation of two moment-dependent causal mechanisms of deep-focus earthquakes in this region. We discuss these results in the context of previous observational, laboratory and numerical studies and emphasize the importance of continued research to validate the dual-mechanism hypothesis both in and outside Izu-Bonin. Such work may not only improve our understanding of the nucleation and propagation of deep-focus earthquakes, but also help clarify slab structure and subduction zone dynamics.

Transient and Steady‐State Friction in Non‐Isobaric Conditions

AbstractThe frictional properties of faults control the initiation and propagation of earthquakes and the associated hazards. Although the ambient temperature and instantaneous slip velocity controls on friction in isobaric conditions are increasingly well understood, the role of normal stress on steady‐state and transient frictional behaviors remains elusive. The friction coefficient of rocks exhibits a strong dependence on normal stress at typical crustal depths. Furthermore, rapid changes in normal stress cause a direct effect on friction followed by an evolutionary response. Here, we derive a constitutive friction law that consistently explains the yield strength of rocks from atmospheric pressure to gigapascals while capturing the transient behavior following perturbations in normal stress. The model explains the frictional strength of a variety of sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous rocks and the slip‐dependent response upon normal stress steps of Westerly granite bare contact and synthetic gouges made of quartz and a mixture of quartz and smectite. The nonlinear normal stress dependence of the frictional resistance may originate from the distribution of asperities that control the real area of contact. The direct and transient effects may be important for induced seismicity by hydraulic fracturing or for naturally occurring normal stress perturbations within fault zones in the brittle crust.

Automated Detection and Machine Learning‐Based Classification of Seismic Tremors Associated With a Non‐Volcanic Gas Emission (Mefite d’Ansanto, Southern Italy)

AbstractA major aim in the study of crustal fluids is the development of automatic methodologies for monitoring deep‐source, non‐volcanic gas emissions’ spatio‐temporal evolution. Crustal fluids play a significant role in the generation of large earthquakes and the characterization of their emissions on the surface can be essential for better understanding crustal processes generating earthquakes. We investigate seismic tremors recorded over 4 days in 2019 at the Mefite d’Ansanto (southern Apennines, Italy) that is located at the northern end of the fault system that generated the Mw 6.9 1980 Irpinia Earthquake. The Mefite d’Ansanto is hypothesized to be the largest natural, non‐volcanic, CO2‐rich gas emission on Earth. The seismic tremor is studied by employing a dense temporary seismic network and an automated detection algorithm based on non‐parametric statistics of the recorded signal amplitudes. We extracted signal characteristics (RMS amplitude and statistical moments of amplitudes both in time and frequency domains) for use in the subsequent supervised machine‐learning classification of the target tremor and accidently detected anthropogenic and background noise. The data set is used for the training and optimization of station‐based KNN (k‐Nearest‐Neighbors) binary classifiers obtaining good classification performances with a median overall accuracy across all stations of 92.8%. The classified tremor displayed common features at all stations: variable duration (16 s to 30–40 min), broad peak frequency (4–20 Hz) with varying amplitudes, and two types of signals: (a) long‐duration, high‐amplitude tremor and (b) pulsating tremor. Higher tremor amplitudes recorded at stations closer to local bubbling and pressurized vents suggest multiple local tremor sources.

Detecting the Preparatory Phase of Induced Earthquakes at The Geysers (California) Using K‐Means Clustering

AbstractThe generation of strong earthquakes is a long‐debated problem in seismology, and its importance is increased by the possible implications for earthquake forecasting. It is hypothesized that the earthquake generation processes are anticipated by several phenomena occurring within a nucleation region. These phenomena, also defined as preparatory processes, load stress on the fault leading it to reach a critical state. In this paper, we investigate the seismicity preceding 19 moderate (Mw ≥ 3.5) earthquakes at The Geysers, Northern California, aiming to verify the existence of a preparatory phase before their occurrence. We apply an unsupervised K‐means clustering technique to analyze time series of physics‐related features extracted from catalog information and estimated for events occurred before the mainshocks. Specifically, we study the temporal evolution of the b‐value from the Gutenberg‐Richter (b), the magnitude of completeness (Mc), the fractal dimension (Dc), the inter‐event time (dt), and the moment rate (). Our analysis shows that out of 19 moderate magnitude events considered, a common preparatory phase for 11 events is clearly identified, plus other five events for which we can guess a preparatory phase but with different characteristics from the previous ones. The latter result confirms that even within the same tectonic context different possible activation behaviors may exist. The duration of the preparatory process ranges between about 16 hr and 4 days. We observe that also for the retrieved preparatory process a decrease in b, Mc, and Dc, and an increase of . Finally, we show a clear correlation between events with a preparation phase and the location of injection's wells, suggesting an important role of fluids in the preparatory process.

Fault Coupling on a Creeping Thrust Fault: Joint Inversion Using Geodetic Data and Repeating Earthquakes

AbstractDue to the lack of recognized creep on dip‐slip faults, the nature of fault creep and its role in the generation of large earthquakes is largely unexplored. The Chihshang fault in Taiwan serves as one of the best examples of a thrust creeping fault in the world, exhibiting a fast creep rate of 2–3 cm/year and the capability of producing magnitude six earthquakes. Land‐based geodetic measurements are less sensitive to fault slip with depth, especially for the deeper portion of the seaward dipping fault. Taking advantage of slip rates inferred from repeating earthquake sequences (RESs) at greater depths (up to 30 km), we present a method that embeds RES‐derived slip rates into the neighboring fault patch for geodetic data inversion. Using the geodetic and seismological data from 2007 to 2011, we achieve a higher resolution of inter‐seismic slip rate distribution below a depth of 10 km. The inferred low coupling ratio establishes an extensive creeping area that coincides with a location of abundant RES and earthquake swarms. The inferred high coupling ratio, on the other hand, delineates a locked area corresponding to the two co‐seismic slip zones of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung and 2022 Mw 6.7 Yuli earthquakes. The transition zone marking the gradual change from fully locked to shallow creeping areas appears to coincide with the post‐seismic slip area of the 2003 Chengkung event. Using the fault coupling model, the moment rate deficit measured in the two locked areas is capable of generating a Mw 6.8 event every 78 years to the south and a Mw 6.7 event every 28 years to the north. This moment rate deficit is decreased by 10% when the closely located Central Range fault is considered in a two‐fault model, leading to the slightly longer recurrence interval on the Chihshang fault. The two‐fault model potentially contributes to a better understanding of the regional inter‐seismic deformation, which is recommended to be adopted in the future studies of seismic hazard assessment.