Earthquake Fault Research Articles

Stochastic Green’s Function Method Considering Non-Uniform Rise Time Distribution to Simulate 3D Broadband Ground Motion

The stochastic Green’s function method has been widely used in the field of ground motion simulation in recent years. It is generally assumed that the rise time of each subfault is the same in this method. Since the rise time significantly influences the amplitude of simulation results in the intermediate frequency band, to improve the accuracy of stochastic Green’s function method for near-fault broadband ground motion simulation, referring to the numerical simulation results of Day, the rise time is assumed to be non-uniformly distributed on the fault, and an improved approximate expression of rise time on a rectangular fault considering that the rupture starting point may be at any position and the aspect ratio may be arbitrary is proposed. Additionally, the contributions of P, SV and SH wave are considered, respectively, and an improved stochastic Green’s function method is proposed for 3D broadband ground motion simulation. Taking the 1994 Northridge earthquake in America and 2013 Lushan earthquake in China as examples, under different subfault division numbers, the synthesized source spectra are compared with the omega-squared theoretical source spectra of the large earthquake, and the simulated ground motions at observation points are compared with observed records to verify the effectiveness of the improved method. The results show that when the Northridge earthquake fault and Lushan earthquake fault are divided into 9 × 10 subfaults and 11 × 7 subfaults, respectively, the simulation results obtained using the improved method are close to the observed records in the broadband frequency range. Therefore, the improved method can effectively simulate the 3D ground motion in near-fault regions.

The 2021 and 2022 North Coast California Earthquake Sequences and Fault Complexity in the Vicinity of the Mendocino Triple Junction

ABSTRACT The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), one of the most tectonically active and complex regions of California, has damaging earthquakes on the San Andreas and Mendocino faults, within the oceanic and subducting regions of the Gorda section of the Juan de Fuca plate, and within the overriding North American plate (NAP). Two recent earthquake sequences in the MTJ region, starting on 20 December 2021 and 20 December 2022, highlight the complex interactions of regional faults. We explore these sequences to better define the deep faults in the MTJ region, and their rupture modes. Our finite-source analysis shows the 2021 sequence began with two M ∼6.0 earthquakes separated by ∼11 s in time and 30 km in distance. The first earthquake occurred offshore on the Mendocino fault at a depth of 16.5 km. Its S waves triggered an “onshore” intraplate Gorda event at a depth of 27 km, which ruptured a vertical fault toward the northeast. Finite-source analysis of the mainshock of the 2022 sequence, M 6.4, indicates the rupture started offshore north of Cape Mendocino within the Gorda plate and propagated east-northeast, toward populated areas. Damage to towns and infrastructure was exacerbated by directivity and the sediment-filled valleys, as well as by a large aftershock (M 5.4) centered 20 km south-southeast of the mainshock rupture plane. The depths and mechanisms of the onshore 2021 and the 2022 earthquakes and their aftershock sequences indicate that they occurred on different strike-slip faults within the subducted portion of the Gorda plate. The faults active in these earthquakes are unrelated to mapped surface faults in the overriding NAP and are oblique to the tectonic trends seen at the surface. The 2021 and 2022 earthquakes are close to the boundary between two distinct regions of the Gorda plate, where offshore north–south horizontal compression transitions to east–west downslab tension.

Experimental and numerical investigation of the seismic behavior of reinforced concrete frames with restricted ductility

In recent decades, the concept of special ductility has been commonly used to design reinforced concrete frames to resist strong earthquakes. There are numerous situations where strong earthquakes impose restricted ductility demands, e.g., structures governed by gravity loads or wind loads rather than seismic loads, and frames with geometric properties such that the dimensions prevent formation of plastic hinges at the ends of beams. To evaluate performance of such structures, this study has been conducted and emphasis is placed on intermediate reinforced concrete frames with code-conforming details. Shake table tests are conducted on a 3-story intermediate frame under a sequence of 9 incremental excitation records varying from 0.10 g to 0.60 g, representing minor to severe ground motions. A relatively satisfactory performance is observed: the maximum interstory drift ratio does not exceed 1.57 %, cracks are not localized at the ends of members but distributed along the spans of both beams and columns, and joints remain almost uncracked. To examine the effects of different parameters, a numerical model is developed and verified against the test results. Three essential parameters are considered: seismic event profile, span-to-depth ratio of the beam, and joint aspect ratio. The results show that the effects of different factors may be ranked from highest to lowest as follows: seismic event profile, aspect ratio of the beam-column joint, and span-to-depth ratio of the beam. The numerical analyses show that the frame will not exceed life safety limit under far field excitations and for joint aspect ratios larger than 0.9, but it may reach the threshold of collapse prevention limit under near fault earthquakes. Overall, the study sheds some light on seismic response of RC frames with restricted ductility and provides some indications of their feasibility as well as their limits in high seismic zones.

Inhomogeneity effects on earthquake fault events.

We present a detailed analysis of the dynamical behavior of an inhomogeneous Burridge-Knopoff model, a simplified mechanical model of an earthquake. Regardless of the size of seismic faults, a soil element rarely has a continuous appearance. Instead, their surfaces have complex structures. Thus, the model we suggest keeps the full Newtonian dynamics with inertial effects of the original model, while incorporating the inhomogeneities of seismic fault surfaces in stick-slip friction force that depends on the local structure of the contact surfaces as shown in recent experiments. The numerical results of the proposed model show that the cluster size and the moment distributions of earthquake events are in agreement with the Gutenberg-Richter law without introducing any relaxation mechanism. The exponent of the power-law size distribution we obtain falls within a realistic range of value without fine tuning any parameter. On the other hand, we show that the size distribution of both localized and delocalized events obeys a power law in contrast to the homogeneous case. Thus, no crossover behavior between small and large events occurs.

Intensity Prediction Equations Based on the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) Scale: Application to Normal Fault Earthquakes

Earthquake environmental effects may significantly contribute to the damage caused by seismic events; similar to ground motion, the environmental effects are globally stronger in the vicinity and decrease moving away from the epicenter or seismogenic source. To date, a single intensity prediction equation (IPE) has been proposed in the Italian Apennines for intensity scale dealings with environmental effects: the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07). Here, we evaluate the sensitivity of the IPE with respect to input data and methodological choices and we propose IPEs with global validity for crustal normal faults. We show the strong influence of input data on the obtained attenuation investigating the 1980 Irpinia–Basilicata (Southern Italy) earthquake. We exploit a dataset of 26 earthquakes to build an IPE considering the epicentral distance. We also propose an IPE considering the distance from the fault rupture, which is derived from a dataset of 10 earthquakes. The proposed equations are valid for normal faults up to 40 km from the epicenter/fault and may flank other models predicting ground motion or damage to the built environment. Our work thus contributes to the use of the ESI-07 scale for hazard purposes.

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

Research on Paleoearthquake and Recurrence Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes in Active Faults of Mainland China

Research on Paleoearthquake and Recurrence Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes in Active Faults of Mainland China

Vulnerability of suspension bridges to spatially variable vertical ground motions

This study investigates the vulnerability of long-span suspension bridges to spatially variable vertical ground motions (SV-VGMs). While of recognized importance, a comprehensive understanding of this topic has been traditionally limited by the unavailability of an adequate number of arrays of motions. In this work, 10 simulations of a large-magnitude Hayward Fault earthquake are utilized to perform site-specific structural response assessments of a suspension bridge under different load scenarios. A detailed nonlinear model representative of the West San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge is employed as the case study structure. Four sets of nonlinear time-history analyses are performed with and without VGMs and with and without the incorporation of spatial variability to offer the basis for a complete comparison of the demand distributions across different load cases. Results indicate that VGMs largely influence the response of the bridge decks in the vertical direction, with an increase in drifts up to 2× for the case of synchronous input and up to 2.5× for the case of asynchronous inputs. The analysis of the bridge response in the time and frequency domain across all load cases reveals a high sensitivity of the decks’ response to minor time lags in input motions of comparable amplitude, which are seen to activate the contribution of higher modes to the structural response. Evidence from this study points to the potential of severely underestimating structural demands if the (even limited) spatial variability of the input motions is not incorporated correctly. For the case study structure, the probability of exceeding the onset of nonlinearity in the short decks at the design earthquake level is seen to increase by a factor of about two when considering SV-VGMs as opposed to synchronous horizontal motions only.

Solving the puzzle of the 1996 Biak, Indonesia tsunami

On February 17, 1996, an earthquake (Mw=\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${M}_{\ ext{w}}=$$\\end{document} 8.2) occurred northeast of Biak Island, Indonesia, and generated a tsunami. Interestingly, the tsunami runup on the southwest side of Biak Island, which did not face the epicenter, was higher than that on the side of the island facing the epicenter. It was earlier suggested that the earthquake triggered submarine landslides. However, this hypothesis remains unexplored and unconfirmed. In this study, tsunami arrival times obtained from eyewitness accounts were used to perform backward tsunami travel time modeling. Based on the backward tsunami travel time results and multibeam bathymetry, five submarine landslide candidates were identified: three located to the southwest of Biak Island and two to the south of the island. Our analysis indicates that tsunamis from a large submarine landslide off the southwest coast of Biak Island (SL 2) and a small submarine landslide off the south side of Biak Island (SL 4) contributed to the 1996 Biak tsunami event and came earlier than the main tsunami from the earthquake fault. Tsunami sources were earlier modeled only by fault parameters without considering submarine landslide sources. As a result, the models could not explain the observed runup and eyewitness tsunami arrival times for the southwest and south of Biak Island. To address this problem, we propose an approach that combines a submarine landslide model with a modified version of a previously proposed fault model. Our combined model explains the observed runup and eyewitness tsunami arrival times well (Aida’s index values of the model are K = 1.00 and κ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\kappa$$\\end{document} = 1.44).Graphical abstract

Three-dimensional fault model and features of chained hazards of the Luding MS 6.8 earthquake, Sichuan Province, China

The MS 6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior. This area is where the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Daliangshan and Longmenshan faults intersect. China Earthquake Administration has identified that intersection area, among the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, the Anninghe fault, the Daliangshan fault and the southern part of the Longmenshan fault, as a high-magnitude earthquake hazard area. According to existing data on the Luding earthquake, including the focal parameters, the spatial distribution of re-located aftershocks, dominated azimuth of the earthquake intensities and earthquake-induced ground fissures, we built a 3D earthquake fault model. We found that two discontinuous NNW-trending vertical strike-slip faults with left stepping were the seismogenic faults of the Luding earthquake. Its coseismic left-lateral dislocation triggered transtensional slips and aftershocks on the NW-trending secondary faults at its northernmost tensile area. Meanwhile, local crustal coseismic shortening on the side of Mt. Gongga triggered the aftershocks on the NE- and NW-trending secondary conjugated strike-slip faults, which were confirmed by GNSS observations and InSAR deformation field around the epicenter. This earthquake rupturing pattern also controlled the spatial distribution of the earthquake intensity IX area and earthquake chain hazards. The Coulomb stress calculation shows that the Luding earthquake increases the risk of high-magnitude earthquake occurrence on the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and the Anninghe fault. Finally, we suggested doing good monitoring of the Anninghe fault and the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and avoiding active faults with seismogenic capacity and areas prone to earthquake-chained hazards during the site selection and planning of reconstruction.

Massively parallel Bayesian estimation with Sequential Monte Carlo sampling for simultaneous estimation of earthquake fault geometry and slip distribution

In inverse analysis, Bayesian estimation is useful for understanding the reliability of the estimation result or prediction based on it because it can estimate not only optimal parameters but also their uncertainties. The estimation of an earthquake source fault based on observed crustal deformation is a typical inverse problem in the field of earthquake research. In this study, a method for simultaneous Bayesian estimation of earthquake fault plane geometry and spatially variable slip distribution on the plane has been developed. The developed method can be applied to stochastic models with arbitrary probability distribution settings, and it enables to incorporate appropriate constraints for slip distribution in the estimation process, which can lead to enhanced robustness and stability of estimation. Since this method is computationally more expensive than conventional methods, large-scale parallel computing was introduced to cope with the increased computational cost and a supercomputer was used for the analysis. To validate the proposed method, simultaneous Bayesian estimation of fault geometry and slip distribution with slip constraints was performed using the crustal deformation observed in the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake. Hierarchical parameterization and massively parallelized Bayesian inference used in this study have broad applicability not only in earthquake research but also in other scientific and engineering fields.

Improved methods for synthesizing near-fault ground motions based on specific response spectrum

An increasing number of civil structures are being built near or across earthquake faults, making them more susceptible to severe seismic damage due to the presence of large velocity pulses in near-fault ground motions (NFGMs). Because of limited availability of NFGMs records, synthesized NFGMs are necessary for seismic designing of structures located around near-fault areas. Based on the far-field synthesis of ground motions (GMs), various methods for synthesizing NFGMs by superimposing high-frequency and low-frequency components in the time domain have been developed. However, such techniques suffer from wider variation in the response spectrum between the synthesized NFGMs and the target spectrum. To address this issue, a new approach for synthesizing NFGMs has been proposed. This approach investigates key parameters of the response spectrum for NFGMs based on a comprehensive database. Similarly, the shortcomings in existing NFGM methods have been analyzed by evaluating a couple of criteria for the suitability of the synthesizing method. Two adjustment strategies have been developed to attain consistency in the response spectrum. The spectral characteristics can be maintained during the spectrum adjustment process to overcome limitations of existing methods. Synthesized specimen of NFGMs has been utilized to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

AbstractApplying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

Seismogenic Fault Model for the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi, China, Earthquake, Constraints from Multisource Data

Abstract Deciphering a comprehensive 3D fault model for the regions with moderate-to-strong earthquakes is crucial for understanding earthquake triggering mechanisms and assessing future seismic hazards. On 21 May 2021, a massive Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred in Yangbi, Dali City, China, near the northern Red River fault zone. Despite numerous studies conducted over the past two years, the seismogenic fault of this earthquake remains a topic of controversy. In this article, we refine the workflow for 3D construction of fault surfaces from Riesner et al. (2017) and used it for the Yangbi earthquake. We constructed a seismogenic fault model for the Yangbi earthquake and Caoping fault from the collected multisource data. One utilizes a combination of focal mechanisms and relocated hypocenters, whereas the other combines geological and geophysical data from the study area. Upon analyzing these two fault models and the relocated hypocenter data, we propose that the seismogenic fault in the Yangbi earthquake is an undiscovered blind fault or a secondary blind fault of the Weixi–Qiaohou fault, rather than the surface-emerging Caoping fault.

The Behavior of Concrete Cantilever Retaining Walls During Far-Field and Near-Fault Earthquakes

Abstract The dynamic behavior of retaining walls is a complicated subject and a considerable design challenge, particularly under seismic conditions. Seismologists and investigators have an interest in near-fault earthquakes with significant velocity pulses because it can cause considerable displacements in constructions with respect to far-field earthquakes and consequently rise the hazard of earthquake-caused failure of structures. Despite there are several studies have investigated the seismic behavior of retaining structures, but the researches about retaining walls subjected to the influence of near fault like pulse earthquakes is still not adequate. The current study targets to numerically assess the dynamic performance of concrete cantilever retaining walls during far field ground motions (FFGMs) and near-fault ground motions (NFGMs). The nonlinear analysis of time history is conducted using the finite element method for three cantilever retaining wall models. The results of the analysis gained in terms of top horizontal displacement of the wall, active seismic earth pressure, and acceleration response of the system, which have been considered to recognize the impact of near fault earthquake on retaining structures. Additionally, the influence of different PGA of NF and FF earthquakes has been studied.

Patterns of Causative Faults of Normal Earthquakes in the Fluid‐Rich Outer Rise of Northeastern Japan, Constrained With 3D Teleseismic Waveform Modeling

AbstractAccurate earthquake source parameters are crucial for understanding plate tectonics, yet, it is difficult to determine these parameters precisely for offshore events, especially for outer‐rise earthquakes, as the limited availability of direct P or S wave data sets from land‐based seismic networks and the unsuitability of simplified 1D methods for the complex 3D structures of subducting systems. To overcome these challenges, we employ an efficient hybrid numerical simulation method to model these 3D structural effects on teleseismic P/SH and P‐coda waves and determine the reliable centroid locations and focal mechanisms of outer‐rise normal‐faulting earthquakes in northeastern Japan. Two M6+ events with reliable locations from ocean bottom seismic observations are utilized to calibrate the 3D velocity structure. Our findings indicate that 3D synthetic waveforms are sensitive to both event location, thanks to bathymetry and water reverberation effects, and the shallow portion of the lithospheric structure. With our preferred velocity model, which has Vs ∼16% lower than the global average, event locations are determined with uncertainties of <5 km for horizontal position and <1 km for depth. The refined event locations in a good match between one of the nodal strikes and the high‐resolution bathymetry, enabling the determination of the causative fault plane. Our results reveal that trench‐ward dipping normal faults are more active, with three parallel to the trench as expected, while five are associated with the abyssal hills. The significant velocity reduction in the uppermost lithosphere suggests abundant water migrating through active normal faults, enhancing both mineral alteration and pore density.

Complex Multi‐Fault Dynamics in Sikkim Himalaya: New Insights From Local Earthquake Analysis

AbstractAnomalously overturned thrust faults, lineaments and segmentation causing cross‐cutting basement structures characterize the tectonic setting of Sikkim Himalaya. However, its seismotectonics is poorly constrained along with the speculated northward extension of the Dhubri‐Chungthang Fault Zone (DCFZ) causing segmentation. Here, we utilize the precise location of newly acquired local earthquake data and fault plane solutions using full‐waveform moment tensor inversion to better constrain seismically active zones. Transtensional shearing along the Main Himalayan Thrust in central Sikkim is possibly incited by fluid‐rich upper‐crust. Cessation of the mapped 20 km wide mid‐crustal seismogenic zone of DCFZ at Chungthang and its northward discontinuation into the Higher Himalayas is confirmed by the striking variation in focal mechanisms. Earthquakes along imbricated segments in the lower‐crust originate possibly in response to crustal shortening. Extensional shearing along the Moho triggers seismicity to the northwest of Sikkim. Such complex tectonic dynamics instigating persistent seismicity indicates high potential for future great earthquakes in Sikkim Himalaya.

Towards Sustainable Urban Transformation: The Role of LEED Certification in Istanbul's Future and Economy

Istanbul, a city with a rich history and vibrant culture, faces the imminent threat of a catastrophic earthquake due to its proximity to the North Anatolian Earthquake Fault. In response, the Turkish government has initiated a sweeping urban transformation led by the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. This initiative aims to not only rebuild the city but also to enhance its resilience to earthquakes and environmental challenges. Central to this transformation is the adoption of green building principles, particularly LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certification. LEED provides a comprehensive framework for sustainable building design, construction, and operation, encompassing categories such as Sustainable Sites, Water Efficiency, Energy and Atmosphere, Materials and Resources, Indoor Environmental Quality, Innovation, and Regional Priority. This paper examines the economic and future considerations of enforcing green certification during Istanbul's urban transformation. Through a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of LEED certification across different categories, as well as alternative approaches to sustainability, this paper aims to provide a holistic view of the implications for Istanbul's economic landscape and long-term prospects. By integrating environmental sustainability into its urban renewal efforts, Istanbul has the opportunity to not only mitigate the risks of earthquakes but also to emerge as a model for sustainable, environmentally conscious urban development. This paper seeks to highlight the importance of green certification in shaping Istanbul's urban landscape for generations to come, with a focus on economic considerations, environmental impacts, and broader implications for the city's future.

Assessment and measurement of ground motion risk levels for structures isolated by double concave friction pendulum system

Determining the risk level of ground motions (GM) for structures is crucial for their damage control and resilience enhancement, while the assessment and measurement criteria of GM risk levels for structures isolated by double concave friction pendulum system (DCFPS) remain unclear. Through statistical analysis of the response distribution of DCFPS with various design parameters under 1013 GM records, this study determines an energy dissipation efficacy of 99 %, a floor velocity of 0.35 m/s, a floor velocity of 0.60 m/s, and the displacement capacity of DCFPS as the response criteria for assessing four performance states of efficacy, habitability, functionality, and safety, respectively. In addition, the value of GM intensity in PGA, PGV, PGD, and the equivalent velocity of seismic input energy (VE) for measuring the four GM risk levels corresponding to the four performance states are obtained. Furthermore, a classification of GMs based on earthquake magnitude and fault distance is proposed according to their risk to DCFPS. It is found that the intensity value of each GM risk level varies for different design parameters of DCFPS but fluctuate within a small range, however, great differences exist when using different intensity measures (IM) in classifying GM risk levels. Therefore, based on the correlation between IMs and DCFPS responses, the conservatism of PGA, PGV, PGD and VE in assessing the risk of GMs for DCFPS are evaluated.

Stress change in southwest Japan due to the 1944–1946 Nankai megathrust rupture sequence based on a 3-D heterogeneous rheological model

The Nankai trough has repeatedly experienced large megathrust earthquakes at intervals of 100–200 years. The inland region of southwest (SW) Japan has a seismically active period from 50 years before to 10 years after megathrust earthquakes. To assess the activities of inland earthquakes after megathrust earthquakes, we need to quantitatively evaluate the postseismic stress accumulation on the inland source faults considering plausible viscoelastic relaxation. Recent studies have shown the importance of low-viscosity layers along the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB layer) in postseismic deformation. In the present study, we focus on the most recent ruptures, the 1944 M7.9 Tonankai and the 1946 M8.0 Nankai earthquakes, estimating the 4-year stress change on the source faults in SW Japan in a forward modeling approach. The 1944–1946 megathrust rupture sequence was followed by severe ~ M7 inland earthquakes, such as the 1945 M6.8 Mikawa and 1948 M7.1 Fukui earthquakes. For stress calculation, we used a highly detailed finite element model incorporating the actual topography and the plausible viscoelastic underground structure from past studies. The calculated inland stress field shows the dominance of the coseismic change during the 1944 and 1946 earthquakes and little contribution from viscoelastic relaxation. In contrast, viscoelastic relaxation has a significant effect on stress in the slab, indicating the importance of quantifying the viscosity of the LAB layer. Based on the calculated stress, we evaluated the change in the Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) on each source fault. The ΔCFS is generally positive on the strike-slip faults east of 135°E due to the 1944 rupture. In contrast, the ΔCFS on the faults west of 135°E, including the Median Tectonic Line segments, became positive due to the 1946 rupture. The occurrence of the damaging earthquakes in 1945 and 1948 can be explained by the calculated ΔCFS. The ΔCFS on the recent earthquake faults of the recent damaging earthquakes such as the 2016 M7.2 Kumamoto earthquake is generally negative, suggesting the delay in stress accumulation. The ΔCFS on the source faults of the intra-slab earthquakes differ significantly as large as tens of kilopascals depending on the viscosity of the LAB layer.Graphical