Earthquake Emergency Management Research Articles

Statistical analysis of crowd behaviour in catastrophic situation

Machine learning (ML) is one of the emerging domains in classification and prediction. It is important to understand the responses of individuals in crowd during an earthquake emergency for making appropriate earthquake emergency management plan. Our research is focused on predicting the behaviour of individuals in a crowd during Catastrophic Situation. For this purpose, intended and actual behavioural response of crowd is collected by conducting a series of surveys. The attributes that are selected for result prediction are gender, age, affiliation, health status, training level, nearby exit, earthquake intensity, earthquake location, environmental status, and individual’s response. The dataset thus collected is divided into two crowds, Crowd 1 shows the intended behaviour whereas Crowd 2 shows actual. The decision tree, k-nearest neighbour, Naïve Bayes and neural network machine learning algorithms are used for predicting results. The results are analysed by using Rapid Miner as data mining tool. The dataset is split into two partitions. By applying randomization techniques like simple random sampling, shuffle random sampling, etc. we have trained and tested the machine learning algorithms. The results of this research will be a source of help in understanding critical details about crowd behaviour in earthquake emergency.

Paradigm shift and prospects of China's earthquake emergency management policies: Analysis of historical institutionalism

China's earthquake emergency management policies have experienced a total of four types of paradigms: the paradigm focusing on disaster relief from 1949-1966, the paradigm focusing on earthquake prevention from 1966-1989, the paradigm focusing on earthquake mitigation from 1989-2016, and the paradigm integrating disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief from 2016 to the present. Path dependence can be found in China’s earthquake emergency management policies, which have accumulated to implement comprehensive disaster mitigation based on a pure focus on disaster relief. In addition, earthquake emergency management policies also have a change logic in which subjects are increasingly diversified, policy tools are continuously developed and influenced by the economic system, and policy paradigm changes are influenced by the international environment, national strategies, and emergencies. In the future, earthquake emergency management policies should start from organizational change, digital change and rule of law construction to promote the modernization of China's earthquake emergency governance system and capacity.

Rapid Damage Scenario Assessment for Earthquake Emergency Management

AbstractThe rapid availability of reliable damage statistics, after the occurrence of a major earthquake, is an essential mitigation strategy to drive and support emergency intervention operations. Unfortunately, the latency in collecting and organizing actual damage information has a substantial impact on the efficiency of the initial phases of the intervention framework. To speedup preliminary management operations, a quick, although, coarse prediction of the expected damage is highly desirable.For this purpose, we have developed a system for rapid damage estimation. The system, presently implemented for the Friuli Venezia Giulia region, relies on the existing seismological monitoring infrastructure of the National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (OGS), which is responsible for delivering earthquake alerts in northeastern Italy.In case of a major earthquake event, the predicted damage is automatically computed using the OpenQuake software engine by means of ad hoc structural exposure and fragility models developed for the region. Damage calculations rely on a combination of actual observed ground motion from the stations of the OGS seismological network and empirical prediction using the ShakeMaps software developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The resulting damage scenario, aggregated at municipality level, is finally delivered to the control room of the regional civil protection in support of early intervention activities.Although, the system is presently still under active development, a number of experimental trials have confirmed the reliability and the usefulness of the proposed approach. We are confident that the current research will contribute in mitigating the impact of possible future damaging earthquakes by (1) guiding targeted postevent emergency interventions, (2) increasing the preparedness and response capacity of emergency teams and population through preparatory training activities, and (3) supporting the decision-making process during the recovery phase, hence enhancing resilience.

A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation

Earthquakes usually produce a complex disaster chain including fires, landslides, floods, plague, and social panic, which eventually leads to disastrous consequences. In such situations, earthquake emergency management is vital for reducing the risks and the disastrous consequences. Scenario-based methods have often been used by decision makers in different fields as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the effects of earthquakes. This paper adopts a scenario-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of earthquake emergency management. The model extracts the key elements of earthquake emergency management, simulates possible earthquake disaster scenarios, and obtains an evaluation according to the real situation. It is verified by comparing it with the real situation of the Wenchuan earthquake in China through scenario deduction and simulation. It shows that the scenario-based model can be used to reproduce the development process of an earthquake, identify the key factors which can effectively reduce earthquake losses and then help policy makers to have a better understanding of the earthquake disaster from which to put forward practical measures for emergency management.

Proposal for Development Cooperation to Enhance the Capacity on Disaster Emergency Response in Developing Countries : A Case Study of Curriculum Development in the People’s Republic of China

Although the importance of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) has been recognized internationally as exemplified by the UN World Conference on DRR, funding for emergency relief teams and relief supplies accounts for approximately 66% of the total amount paid for emergency management as a part of international cooperation. Stable economic development requires improvement of DRR and also the mitigation of damage. This paper: 1. Identifies the challenges for enhancing the capacity for emergency management in China; and 2. Examines methods of development cooperation that could help to resolve the above-mentioned challenges. The challenges in China have been brought to light through the Project “Japan-China Cooperation Plan of Earthquake First-Aid Capacity Training” to enhance capacity for earthquake emergency management under JICA’s Technical Cooperation. The timeline analysis for emergency management and after action review were used to assess the China’s emergency management framework and systems. The system and framework of China were also examined by comparing international systems and frameworks such as ISO22320, Japanese DRR system and the United States system. Based on this, curriculum and texts were developed for the National Earthquake Response Support Service (NERSS) to train the personnel engages in earthquake risk management in China. Guidance curricula were developed for the beginners and the intermediate user, which effectiveness was verified by instructional design.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical masonry buildings located in Annaba city (Algeria) using non ad-hoc data survey

Seismic vulnerability analysis of historical masonry buildings, addressed to earthquake emergency management and protection strategy planning, requires large-scale vulnerability and damage assessment. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale urban area located in Annaba city (Algeria). The first method is based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second is based on the Italian GNDT approach. To accomplish this task, the authors employed an existing data survey, which, however, was not originally developed for seismic purposes. It was used herein to provide input to the vulnerability methods. The main goal of this research is not only to assess the seismic vulnerability and expected damage within Annaba, but also to adapt the two mentioned approaches to the existing data survey, aiming to use such nonspecific building database and to study the possibility of its application for seismic risk estimation in similar regions. The results obtained from the application of these two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system, proving that the vulnerability of the buildings surveyed in Annaba is significant, and therefore risk mitigation efforts and public awareness are required.

Study on Earthquake Emergency Management Guide Map for People in Metropolitan Area

Study on Earthquake Emergency Management Guide Map for People in Metropolitan Area