Earthquake Catalog Research Articles

Earthquake risk assessment for Kuwait City, Kuwait

Estimating the expected losses from a seismic disaster, whether economic or human is considered one of the most important priorities for urban development in countries, especially those with continually expanding urban areas, high-rise buildings, and skyscraper construction as is the case in Kuwait City. It is necessary to conduct an earthquake risk assessment study due to Kuwait’s geographical location which makes it close to the most important global seismic belt, the Zagros Seismic Belt, and its proximity to local seismic sources. To conduct such a study, three inputs including seismic hazard, exposure, and vulnerability modules were incorporated, considering the inputs’ uncertainty. To assess the seismic hazard module, a unified earthquake catalog was compiled, a seismotectonic model of 27 seismic sources was designed, the recurrence parameters of seismicity and the strongest predictable earthquake were calculated for each source, and the unified hazard spectrums were obtained. Earthquake scenarios were generated to create a seismic hazard module. The exposure module is performed using data from the Kuwaiti Public Authority for Civil Information including coordinates of 33,066 facilities and buildings, area, height, shape, and type of buildings, the materials used in their construction, their occupancy, and replacement cost. The vulnerability module was implemented using mean damage ratio curves by choosing the most appropriate equations that describe the condition of buildings in Kuwait, the vast majority of which are modern multi-story concrete buildings. The final results including the economic losses of the exposures were calculated using probabilistic metrics (predicted annual losses, loss exceedance curve, and probable maximum loss). The results showed that the annual average loss is $12,793,319.52 and that seismic source No.27 to the north of Kuwait has a significant value to the losses, but the frequent occurrence of losses from seismic source No.15 to the east of Kuwait, in the Zagros region, gave the most danger to Kuwait. Seismic risk results can be used to create emergency response scenarios and risk mitigation strategies.

Study of Earthquake Hazard Probability Based on PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) Using the PSHA Method in Semarang Regency, Indonesia

Semarang Regency was one of the areas affected by the earthquake. This happens because it is located north of the subduction zone and has active faults, so research is needed to identify the impact of earthquakes in Semarang Regency as an initial action in disaster mitigation efforts. This research aims to determine the distribution of PGA values in the Semarang Regency area and to assess the seismic hazard due to earthquakes based on a map of the distribution of PGA values in the Semarang Regency area. The method used is the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method, which uses earthquake catalogues from BMKG, USGS, IRIS, and ISC. The earthquake source data was the n processed using ZMAP and R-CRISIS software. The results of seismic hazard analysis in the Semarang Regency area for a probability of exceeding 10% in 50 years or an earthquake return period of 475 years in bedrock with a period of 0 seconds obtained a PGA value ranging from 0.368–0.844 g, for a short period of 0.2 seconds the PGA value obtained ranged from 0.647. –1.773 g, for 1 second, the PGA value obtained ranges from 0.320–0.852 g. The highest PGA value is in West Ungaran District, with a value of 0.844 g. The lowest PGA value is in Kaliwungu District, which has a value of 0.458 g. The active fault zones influence the danger of earthquakes in the Semarang Regency area in Semarang Regency.

Enhancing Detection of Small Earthquake Events from the 2017 Mw 6.5 Botswana Earthquake Using Cross-Correlation Back-Projection Analysis

On 3 April 2017, an Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred in central Botswana, situated inside the southern African plate. However, in a region with sparse station coverage like Botswana, the earthquake catalog is usually largely incomplete at smaller magnitudes. Here we propose a modified back-projection method using a correlation characteristic function, which represents energy similarity and mitigates interference due to waveform complexity in regional seismic networks, aiming to enhance the detection of small seismic events. The energy-related characteristic function exhibits robust detections for low signal-to-noise ratio data, a capability not achievable by traditional arrival time picking methods. Detection reliability is ensured through a dual search constraint, optimizing effective signal count, considering nearby epicentral station signals, and accounting for seismic events clustering, which involves discarding seismic events from regions with infrequent earthquake occurrences. A total of 365 events (magnitude completeness of ∼ M 2), about four times more than the catalog obtained by other methods, have been detected within seven days after the Botswana mainshock. Most are low signal-to-noise ratio events for that are not localized by traditional methods. The resulting earthquake sequence occurred in at least three NW-SE fault strands between the Kaapvaal Craton and the Limpopo Belt. Our results, when combined with other geophysical data, suggest that the Botswana earthquake mainly results from the difference of intraplate basal dragging forces at various tectonic regions driven by the clockwise plate motions, which would generate extensional strains along the weak edges of rigid blocks.

Seismicity in Central America (1520–2020) and Earthquake catalog compilation for seismic hazard assessments

Seismicity in Central America (1520–2020) and Earthquake catalog compilation for seismic hazard assessments

Source mechanism of the 2023 Ms 5.5 earthquake in Subei, Gansu Province revealed by relocated aftershocks and InSAR: complement to the ‘shallow slip deficit’ of the eastern boundary of the Altyn Tagh fault

The Ms 5.5 earthquake struck on 24 October 2023, in Subei County, Gansu Province, China, occurring along the eastern segment of the Altyn Tagh fault. It raises the question of whether this earthquake is linked to the ongoing shortening slip rate along this segment or triggered by other seismic events. Analyzing the fault geometry of the Subei earthquake and understanding the significance of the weakening activity rate for seismic hazards in neighboring regions is crucial. The surface deformation from small- and medium-sized earthquakes (magnitudes less than Mw5.5) is often subtle, and the coseismic deformation detected by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is vulnerable to atmospheric disturbances, leading to significant measurement errors. Moreover, inaccuracies in the regional crustal velocity structure can cause errors in earthquake localization based on seismic data. These challenges complicate the establishment of a rupture model for seismogenic faults and hinder the inversion of fault slip models. To overcome these limitations, we employed the time-series InSAR stacking method and aftershock relocation to determine the fault geometry of the Subei earthquake. A two-step inversion method was utilized to ascertain both the fault geometry and slip distribution. Our modeling indicates that the 2023 Subei earthquake had a thrust mechanism with a component of strike-slip. The rupture did not reach the surface, with the maximum fault slip measuring 0.45 m at a depth of 2.5–3.5 km. The fault dips westward, and the moment magnitude is calculated at 5.4. This earthquake is associated with the ongoing weakening of the left-lateral strike-slip rupture along the Altyn Tagh fault in the Subei region. Furthermore, retrograde thrust tectonics significantly contribute to the absorption of accumulated stress during this process.Our findings highlight the potential of utilizing time-series InSAR images to enhance earthquake catalogs with geodetic observations, offering valuable data for further studies of the earthquake cycle and active tectonics. This approach is also applicable in other tectonically active regions, enhancing understanding of seismic hazards and risk assessment.

Geophysical Coupling Before Three Earthquake Doublets Around the Arabian Plate

In this study, we analysed lithospheric, atmospheric, and top-side ionospheric magnetic field data six months before the three earthquake doublets occurred in the last ten years around the Arabian tectonic plate. They occurred in 2014, close to Dehloran (Iran), in 2018, offshore Kilmia (Yemen) and in 2022, close to Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran). For all the cases, we considered the equivalent event in terms of total released energy and mean epicentral coordinates. The lithosphere was investigated by calculating the cumulative Benioff strain with the USGS earthquake catalogue. Several atmospheric parameters (aerosol, SO2, CO, surface air temperature, surface latent heat flux humidity, and dimethyl sulphide) have been monitored using the homogeneous data from the MERRA-2 climatological archive. We used the three-satellite Swarm constellation for magnetic data, analysing the residuals after removing a geomagnetic model. The analysis of the three geo-layers depicted an interesting chain of lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere anomalies, suggesting a geophysical coupling before the Dehloran (Iran) 2014 earthquake. In addition, we identified interesting seismic accelerations that preceded the last 20 days, the Kilmia (Yemen) 2018 and Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran) 2022 earthquake doublets. Other possible interactions between the geolayers have been observed, and this underlines the importance of a multiparametric approach to properly understand a geophysical complex topic as the preparation phase of an earthquake.

Seismotectonic Map of The Sinai Triple Junction

The geodynamic evolution of the Sinai Triple Junction, a highly deformed and seismically active area, is controlled by the Red Sea rift, Gulf of Suez and Aqaba-Dead Sea conjunctions. However, the driving forces for the focusing deformation at crustal depths beneath this area are still ambiguous. Here, we provide an updated seismotectonic map of the area relying on updated seismological and geodetic datasets. A homogenized earthquake catalog has been compiled from well-located earthquakes (> Mw 2.0) by the Egyptian Seismic Network and International Seismological Center in the period between 1990 and 2020.We calculated the average b-value along three seismogenic zones including Gulf of Aqaba, northern Red Sea and Gulf of Suez that amount to 1.1, 0.99 and 0.97, respectively. Additionally, we complied and updated a comprehensive P-wave-based database for the fault plane solutions in the area for events with Mw> 3.5 till 2023. Furthermore, a unified velocity field for the region as well as slip-rate and locking-depth at the active fault segments were estimated from a consistent geodetic dataset from peer-reviewed GPS velocities between 1999 and 2018. Results indicate a dominant NNE left-lateral strike-slip fault with normal component along the Gulf of Aqaba. Pure NW-SE to WNW-ESE dip-slip normal faulting, associated with a strike-slip component in some cases, is dominating the northern and central parts of the Gulf of Suez, whereas pure normal dip-slip movement with an NNE–SSW extension in a horizontal direction is observed in the southern part of the gulf. The estimated slip-rate and locking-depths at the Aqaba fault segments falls between 4.8-4.9 mm/yr and 8-12 km, respectively.

The seismicity of the Carpathians in 2023

According to the results of observations at the seismic stations of the Carpathian region of Ukraine in 2023, the main parameters of 81 earthquakes in the range of energy classes KR=5.8÷13.7 were obtained. The parameters of seismometric equipment at active seismic stations are given. A catalog of earthquakes, their distribution by regions and energy classes, a map of epicenters, graphs of seismic energy release and the number of earthquakes in the region by month are presented. A brief description of the seismicity of certain seismically active areas of the Carpathian region is given. The total energy observed in the region was ΣЕ=9.06·1013 J, which is slightly higher than the last year’s level of ΣЕ=5.06·1013 J. This year, increased seismic activity was observed in three seismically active areas. Thus, 19 earthquakes of energy class KR=5.7÷13.7 were recorded in the North-Western region. Their total seismic energy was ΣЕ=5.02∙1013 J. The two strongest in this area were the earthquake that occurred on October 9 at 18:23 on the territory of Slovakia, near the town of Humenne, with KR=13.7 at a depth of h=8.8 km and intensity at the epicenter of I0=8 points and the earthquake in Transcarpathia, near the village of Dovge, on January 3 at 01:28 with magnitude MSH=3.1, KR=10.7 at a depth of h=9.6 km and intensity at the epicenter of about 5 points. In the Southern Carpathians, 29 earthquakes with KR=8.8÷13.0 were registered at a depth of 2―35 km with a total seismic energy of ΣЕ=3.72∙1013 J. This year, in terms of seismic activity after a long seismic lull, the Krishan region was the third. There were 8 earthquakes with KR=7.6÷12.3 with total seismic energy ΣЕ=2.56∙1012 J. The foci of earthquakes are located in the earth’s crust at depths h=2.0÷15.1 km. This year, compared to last year, the Vrancea district was less active. For the whole year, 19 events with KR=8.4÷11.5 were recorded, the total seismic energy of which is ΣЕ=6.41∙1011 J. In the territory of Bukovyna this year, there is also a decrease in seismic activity compared to 2022. A total of 4 earthquakes with an energy class of KR= 5.8÷7.8 had total seismic energy ΣЕ=1.05∙108 J. The foci of earthquakes were located in the earth’s crust at depths h=1.1÷5 km. Only 2 weak earthquakes were recorded in the Bacau region in 2023, and none in the Banat and Transylvania regions. The regional Carpathian hodograph was used to determine the main parameters of earthquakes in Transcarpathia, and the Jeffreys-Bullen hodograph was used for earthquakes in the Vrancea zone and other six districts.

A Proposal for a High-Frequency Earthquake Magnitude (m3Hz) for Seismic Hazard and Rapid Damage Assessment

Abstract Obtaining a size estimate of an earthquake that well represents its potential impact is of primary importance in seismology and earthquake engineering. The magnitude scales currently used in earthquake catalogs, mainly Ms and Mw, are not designed to represent the variability of shaking due to variations in high-frequency radiation. Conversely, ML, which best describes the seismic-wave energy released by an earthquake, is unable to provide an accurate representation of events with magnitudes exceeding approximately 6.5. Therefore, building on and extending the concept of high-frequency magnitude (Atkinson and Hanks, 1995), we propose in this article a new high-frequency magnitude scale m3Hz. This magnitude is estimated by also considering correction factors for the crustal model and site effects. We apply the new magnitude scale m3Hz to two data sets (Central Italy and Japan) and validate its ability to capture high-frequency radiation effects through comparison with available source parameters. Finally, a procedure for estimating m3Hz is also proposed for preinstrumental earthquakes. This procedure addresses a limitation of previous magnitude estimation techniques, such as Me, and is validated for four events for which both macroseismic and instrumental intensity data are available.

Relocation of the 8 September 2023 High Atlas, Morocco, Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

ABSTRACT The earthquake that occurred on 8 September 2023, with a magnitude of 6.8, was the most destructive earthquake event in Morocco in the past decade. This earthquake took place in the Al Haouz region, located in the western part of the High Atlas Mountain range. To better understand what caused and triggered this earthquake, the earthquake catalogs including P and S arrival times were collected from the Moroccan seismic network and combined with regional data from the International Seismological Centre. The mainshock and aftershocks were relocated by using iLoc, a state-of-the-art single-event location algorithm, and then by the multiple event location double-difference algorithm, hypoDD. The improved earthquake relocations using iLoc and the double-difference methods provide sharper lineation of seismicity and agree well with tomographic images of the earthquake zone. The seismicity distribution and the focal mechanism of the mainshock indicate that the earthquake sequence has occurred along the South Atlas fault system.

Classifying Seismic Events Linked to Solar Activity: A Retrospective LSTM Approach Using Proton Density

The influence of solar activity on seismic activity is a subject of debate. Previous studies have shown that there is sometimes a correlation and sometimes a contradiction between solar activity maxima and large earthquakes. Long-term memory neural network is used to study the relationship between solar activity and seismic activity. This study emphasizes retrospective classification rather than direct prediction, refining the LSTM architecture to maximize classification accuracy and processing data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the U.S. Geological Survey earthquake catalogs. A declustering technique is used to select large seismic events and weighted learning corrects for class imbalances. The LSTM model accurately classified earthquakes (84.47%) and proton density variations. The results support the theory that solar activity, in particular proton density, can anticipate earthquake events.

The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of induced seismicity in the Changning shale gas field based on dense array

In this paper, we performed microseismicity detection and location using the deep learning method and obtained a high-precision earthquake catalog in the Changning gas field, which is one of the largest shale gas production demonstration areas in China. We found that the spatial and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the region are indicative of its correlation with industrial operations. The distribution of earthquakes at depth reflected variations in reservoir depth and provided valuable constraints on it. The horizontal layered distribution of earthquakes at depth is due to the formation of fracture surfaces from interconnected fractures near the reservoir during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations, which clearly demonstrates how HF operations impact seismicity. We suggested that the horizontally layered distribution was driven by two fundamental mechanisms: reactivation of pre-existing faults during HF and injection of high-pressure fluids into the reservoir, leading to fracture creation. Several ML ≥4 earthquakes, which did not occur on well-defined seismogenic faults, may have been triggered by pore elastic coupling resulting from regional stress accumulation and fluid injection. Significantly, the ML 4.9 seismic sequence occurring at the basement indicates that fracking has reactivated and promoted pre-existing faults, highlighting the need for further investigation into potential seismic hazards in the region.

Forecasting future earthquakes with deep neural networks: application to California

SUMMARY We use the spatial map of the logarithm of past estimated released earthquake energies as input of fully convolutional networks (FCN) to forecast future earthquakes. This model is applied to California and compared with an elaborated version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Our long-term earthquake forecast simulations show that the FCN model is close to the ETAS model in forecasting earthquakes with $M \ge 3.0,\,\,4.0,\,\,{\rm{and\,\,}}5.0$ according to the Molchan diagram. Moreover, training and implementing the FCN model is 2000–4000 times faster than calibrating the ETAS model and generating its probabilistic forecasts. The FCN model is straightforward in terms of its neural network structure and feature engineering. It does not require extensive knowledge of statistical seismology or the analysis of earthquake catalogue completeness. Using the earthquake catalogue with $M \ge 0$ as FCN input can enhance the model's performance in some time–magnitude forecasting windows.

Assessing the Adequacy of Earthquake Catalog Sampling for Long-Term Seismicity in Low-to-Moderate Seismic Regions: A Geodetic Perspective

Abstract Seismic hazard assessment in low-to-moderate seismicity regions can benefit from the knowledge of surface deformation rates to better constrain earthquake recurrence models. This, however, amounts to assuming that the known seismicity rate, generally observed over historical times (i.e., up to a few centuries in Europe), provides a representative sample of the underlying long-term activity. We here investigate how this limited sampling can affect the estimated seismic hazard and whether it can explain the disagreement between the seismic moment loading rate as seen by nowadays Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements and the seismic moment release rate by past earthquakes, as is sometimes observed in regions with limited activity. We approach this issue by running simulations of earthquake time series over very long timescales that account for temporal clustering and the known magnitude–frequency distribution in such regions, and that those are constrained to a seismic moment rate balance between geodetic and seismicity estimates at very long timescales. We show that, in the example of southeastern Switzerland, taken here as a case study, this sampling issue can indeed explain this disagreement, although it is likely that other phenomena, including aseismic deformation and changes in strain rate due to erosional and/or glacial rebound, may also play a significant role in this mismatch.

Improvements and Heterogeneities of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog

Abstract Earthquake catalogs are heterogeneous, especially those developed over long time spans. Changes in seismological monitoring, which provides the records on which these catalogs are based, are common. Typically, instruments and networks become more sensitive over time, allowing for the detection and characterization of smaller earthquakes. In pursuit of improvement, new methods for routine data analysis are occasionally introduced, modifying the procedures for catalog compilation. The resulting heterogeneities may not be evident to users, but they should be unveiled and considered in any application of the catalog, especially in statistical seismology, which analyzes large earthquake data sets. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog is considered the most homogeneous database of global seismicity. However, a detailed analysis of its heterogeneities has been lacking. This work reviews changes in the catalog’s development from 1976 to 2023 and reveals how these have caused improvements and heterogeneities in the resulting data. Several periods are distinguished, separated by milestones in the methods employed for moment tensor inversion and catalog compilation, as well as by the advent of global broadband monitoring in 2004. These changes are shown to have caused variations in the catalog’s completeness and in the determinations of centroid depths, scalar seismic moments, and moment tensors. The magnitude of completeness is measured here in detail, both temporally and spatially. It has decreased over the years and shows spatial variations within each period, correlated to regional differences in network monitoring and compilation biases. Moment tensor determinations have been significantly different since 2004, resulting in a different frequency distribution of rake angles and a different dependence of the double-couple component as a function of rake. This work is expected to benefit all future uses of the catalog, enabling better characterization of seismicity properties and improved building and testing of models for earthquake occurrence.

Algorithmic Identification of the Precursory Scale Increase Phenomenon in Earthquake Catalogs

Abstract The precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon describes the sudden increase in rate and magnitude in a precursory area AP, at precursor time TP, and with precursor magnitude MP prior to the upcoming large earthquake with magnitude Mm. Scaling relations between the Ψ variables form the basis of the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” (EEPAS) earthquake forecasting model. EEPAS is a well-established space–time point process model that forecasts large earthquakes in the medium term, that is, the coming months to decades, depending on Mm. In Aotearoa New Zealand, EEPAS contributes to hybrid models for public earthquake forecasting and to the source model of time-varying seismic hazard models, including the latest revision of the National Seismic Hazard Model. The Ψ phenomenon was recently shown not to be unique for a given earthquake, with smaller precursory areas AP associated with larger precursor times TP and vice versa. This trade-off between AP and TP has also been found for the spatial and temporal distributions of the EEPAS models. Detailed analysis of the Ψ phenomenon has so far been limited by the manual and labor-intensive procedure of identifying Ψ in earthquake catalogs. Here, we introduce two algorithms to automatically detect Ψ and apply them to real and simulated earthquake catalog data. By randomizing the catalog and removing aftershocks, we confirm that the Ψ phenomenon is a feature of space–time earthquake clustering prior to major earthquakes. Multiple Ψ identifications confirm the trade-off between AP and TP, and the scaling relations for both real and simulated catalogs are consistent with the original scaling relations on which EEPAS is based. We identify opportunities for future work to refine the algorithms and apply them to physics-based simulated catalogs to enhance the understanding of Ψ. A better understanding of Ψ has the potential to improve forecasting of large upcoming earthquakes.

Microseismicity at the Time of a Large Creep Event on the Calaveras Fault is Unresponsive to Stress Changes

The potential relationship between surface creep and deeper geological processes is unclear, even on one of the world’s best-studied faults. From June to August 2021, a large creep event with surface slip of more than 16 mm was recorded on the Calaveras fault in California, part of the San Andreas fault system. This event initially appeared to be accompanied by along-fault migration of seismicity, suggesting it penetrated to depth. Other studies have suggested that surface creep events are likely a shallow feature, unrelated to deep seismicity. To provide more detail on the relationship between earthquakes, surface creep, and potential aseismic slip at seismogenic depth, we tripled the number of earthquakes in the Northern California Earthquake Catalog in the region of the creep event for all of 2021. This was accomplished by implementing earthquake detection techniques based on both template matching (EQCorrscan) and AI-based automatic earthquake phase picking (PhaseNet). After manual inspection, the detected earthquakes were first located using Hypoinverse and subsequently relocated via GrowClust. Our enhanced catalog indicates that the spatiotemporal pattern of earthquakes here is not strongly influenced by the creep event and is better explained by structural heterogeneity than transient stress changes, indicating a decoupling of seismicity rate and surficial creep on this major fault.

Onset of Aftershocks: Constraints on the Rate-and-State Model

Abstract Aftershock rates typically decay with time t after the mainshock according to the Omori–Utsu law, R(t)=K(c+t)−p, with parameters K, c, and p. The rate-and-state (RS) model, which is currently the most popular physics-based seismicity model, also predicts an Omori–Utsu decay with p = 1 and a c-value that depends on the size of the coseismic stress change. Because the mainshock-induced stresses strongly vary in space, the c-value should vary accordingly. Short-time aftershock incompleteness (STAI) in earthquake catalogs has prevented a detailed test of this prediction so far, but the newly developed a-positive method for reconstructing the true earthquake rate now allows its testing. Using previously published slip models, we calculate the coseismic stress changes for the six largest mainshocks in Southern California in recent decades and estimate the maximum shear as a scalar proxy of the coseismic stress tensor. Aftershock rates reconstructed for events in different stress ranges show that the rates follow a power law with p = 1 independent of stress with no clear sign of a c-value. The onset of the power-law decay is abrupt and more delayed in areas with smaller stress changes. The observations do not necessarily contradict the RS model, as STAI limits the resolution for early aftershocks, and the RS model can reproduce the observations for specific Aσ values. However, the observations lead to strong constraints, namely Aσ<10 kPa and a power-law decay of the background rate with distance to the fault, with exponent 2.7.

New Features in the pyCSEP Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Development and Evaluation

Abstract The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global community dedicated to advancing earthquake predictability research by rigorously testing probabilistic earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. At the heart of this mission is the recent introduction of pyCSEP, an open-source software tool designed to evaluate earthquake forecasts. pyCSEP integrates modules to access earthquake catalogs, visualize forecast models, and perform statistical tests. Contributions from the CSEP community have reinforced the role of pyCSEP in offering a comprehensive suite of tools to test earthquake forecast models. This article builds on Savran, Bayona, et al. (2022), in which pyCSEP was originally introduced, by describing new tests and recent updates that have significantly enhanced the functionality and user experience of pyCSEP. It showcases the integration of new features, including access to authoritative earthquake catalogs from Italy (Bolletino Seismico Italiano), New Zealand (GeoNet), and the world (Global Centroid Moment Tensor), the creation of multiresolution spatial forecast grids, the adoption of non-Poissonian testing methods, applying a global seismicity model to specific regions for benchmarking regional models and evaluating alarm-based models. We highlight the application of these recent advances in regional studies, specifically through the New Zealand case study, which showcases the ability of pyCSEP to evaluate detailed, region-specific seismic forecasts using statistical functions. The enhancements in pyCSEP also facilitate the standardization of how the CSEP forecast experiments are conducted, improving the reliability, and comparability of the earthquake forecasting models. As such, pyCSEP exemplifies collaborative research and innovation in earthquake predictability, supporting transparent scientific practices, and community-driven development approaches.

Active Fault Interaction in the Eastern Betic Cordillera: A Model of Coseismic and Postseismic Stress Transfer Following Historical Earthquakes in SE Spain

AbstractThe Spanish historical earthquake catalog reveals a significant number of destructive earthquakes (Mw 6.0) that have occurred along the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (EBSZ), a major active fault system at the Eastern Betic Cordillera. However, during the last century, seismic activity in this region has been characterized by the absence of large‐magnitude events, complicating yet underlining the importance of understanding active fault interaction in the EBSZ. In this work, we focus on the northeastern half of the EBSZ and apply a similar method to Yazdi et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023tc007917). We model a series of consecutive earthquakes ( VII; Mw 5.0) between the and centuries occurring along the Alhama de Murcia, Carrascoy and Bajo Segura faults, and assess their coseismic impact as well as explore the evolution of Coulomb stress changes due to the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation on the surrounding faults. Our results support a stress‐triggering connection between subsequent events and shed light on identifying the responsible faults for some. Our findings indicate that 1673 Mw 6.0 Orihuela and 1674 Mw 6.2 Lorca earthquakes, seemingly unrelated, could have both contributed to the forthcoming Mw 5.0 earthquake clustering along the Carrascoy fault. We show that attributing the 1829 Mw 6.6 Torrevieja earthquake to the Bajo Segura fault better describes the occurrence of earthquake sequences between the mid‐ and early centuries. Finally, we propose the Alhama de Murcia and the Carrascoy faults as responsible initiators for the early ‐century earthquake sequence in the Segura Medio valley. These findings provide valuable insights for seismic hazard modeling in the region.