Earth Rotation Variations Research Articles

Improved Prediction of Polar Motions by Piecewise Parameterization

Abstract On seanonal timescale, the variation of Earth rotation is mainly regulated by angular momentum exchanges between the solid Earth and the fluidal atmosphere, ocean and hydrosphere. In the 2nd EOP PCC, we developed Dill2019’s method for polar motion prediction, using piecewise autoagressive parameters. The maximum prediction errors within 90 days are 36 and 16 mas for polar motion x and y components, respectively. Compared with Bulletin A, the mean absolute error of polar motion y prediction is improved by 20% in all timescale, and with a maximum improvement of 49% on the 5th day. Whereas, for polar motion x, the performance is slightly better (2% - 8%) within 30 days but worse (−7%~ −19%) within 30~90 days. We found that the prediction accuracy is very sensitive to the quality of the angular momentum data. For example, on average, the prediction of polar motion y is around 2 times better than polar motion x. In addition, we found the accuracy of 30-90 days prediction is dramatically decreased in the year 2020. We suspect that such deterioration might be due to the pandemic of coronavirus COVID-19, which suppressed global airline activities by more than 60%, then result in a lose of air-borne meteorological data, which are important for weather forecast.

Modeling ocean-induced rapid Earth rotation variations: an update

We revisit the problem of modeling the ocean’s contribution to rapid, non-tidal Earth rotation variations at periods of 2–120 days. Estimates of oceanic angular momentum (OAM, 2007–2011) are drawn from a suite of established circulation models and new numerical simulations, whose finest configuration is on a ^circ grid. We show that the OAM product by the Earth System Modeling Group at GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam has spurious short period variance in its equatorial motion terms, rendering the series a poor choice for describing oceanic signals in polar motion on time scales of less than sim 2 weeks. Accounting for OAM in rotation budgets from other models typically reduces the variance of atmosphere-corrected geodetic excitation by sim 54% for deconvolved polar motion and by sim 60% for length-of-day. Use of OAM from the ^circ model does provide for an additional reduction in residual variance such that the combined oceanic–atmospheric effect explains as much as 84% of the polar motion excitation at periods < 120 days. Employing statistical analysis and bottom pressure changes from daily Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment solutions, we highlight the tendency of ocean models run at a 1^circ grid spacing to misrepresent topographically constrained dynamics in some deep basins of the Southern Ocean, which has adverse effects on OAM estimates taken along the 90^circ meridian. Higher model resolution thus emerges as a sensible target for improving the oceanic component in broader efforts of Earth system modeling for geodetic purposes.

SELEN&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; (SELEN version 4.0): a Fortran program for solving the gravitationally and topographically self-consistent sea-level equation in glacial isostatic adjustment modeling

Abstract. We present SELEN4 (SealEveL EquatioN solver), an open-source program written in Fortran 90 that simulates the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process in response to the melting of the Late Pleistocene ice sheets. Using a pseudo-spectral approach complemented by a spatial discretization on an icosahedron-based spherical geodesic grid, SELEN4 solves a generalized sea-level equation (SLE) for a spherically symmetric Earth with linear viscoelastic rheology, taking the migration of the shorelines and the rotational feedback on sea level into account. The approach is gravitationally and topographically self-consistent, since it considers the gravitational interactions between the solid Earth, the cryosphere, and the oceans, and it accounts for the evolution of the Earth's topography in response to changes in sea level. The SELEN4 program can be employed to study a broad range of geophysical effects of GIA, including past relative sea-level variations induced by the melting of the Late Pleistocene ice sheets, the time evolution of paleogeography and of the ocean function since the Last Glacial Maximum, the history of the Earth's rotational variations, present-day geodetic signals observed by Global Navigation Satellite Systems, and gravity field variations detected by satellite gravity missions like GRACE (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). The “GIA fingerprints” constitute a standard output of SELEN4. Along with the source code, we provide a supplementary document with a full account of the theory, some numerical results obtained from a standard run, and a user guide. Originally, the SELEN program was conceived by Giorgio Spada (GS) in 2005 as a tool for students eager to learn about GIA, and it has been the first SLE solver made available to the community.

Earth rotation variations observed by VLBI and the Wettzell “G” ring laser during the CONT17 campaign

Abstract. The VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) technique can provide the full set of parameters needed for the transformation between celestial and terrestrial reference frames with high accuracy. Yet it has some limitations regarding temporal resolution and continuity, and the accuracy of the resulting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) varies depending on the network geometry. In this work we explore the benefit of combining VLBI observations with the measurements of the large ring laser gyroscope “G” in Wettzell for deriving highly resolved ERP (Earth Rotation Parameters, i.e. polar motion and universal time variations, δUT1). We examine the observations collected by two simultaneously operating VLBI networks during the 15 d of the CONT17 campaign. These two networks, of 14 globally distributed telescopes each, were designed for the estimation of Earth rotation variations, for which reason the resulting hourly ERP are appointed as benchmark in this investigation. To evaluate the advantage of a VLBI and ring laser combined solution, we create degraded versions of the original networks, containing only six stations. The ERP derived from those sparse networks and from the VLBI sparse plus ring laser solutions are then compared in terms of differences to the reference values. It should certainly be considered that these are relative numbers, since they are also determined by the number and selection of the stations remaining in the sparse networks. The root mean square of the difference to the benchmark is reduced by 24 % in case of δUT1 from one network. The polar motion yp component from the same network moves 14 % closer to the reference value due to the inclusion of the ring laser data. The impact on xp and on all ERP from the other network ranges between 2 % and 9 %. The research again confirms the feasibility and also the potential gain of a combined evaluation of VLBI and ring laser observations, but the full capacity of such a sensor fusion will emerge once the ring laser gyroscopes reach a level of accuracy similar to VLBI.

Atmospheric data set from the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell during the CONT-17 VLBI campaign

Abstract. Continuous very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations are designed to obtain highly accurate data for detailed studies of high-frequency Earth rotation variations, reference frame stability, and daily to sub-daily site motions. During the CONT-17 campaign that covered a time span of 15 days between 28 November and 12 December 2017, a comprehensive data set of atmospheric observations was acquired at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, where three radio telescopes contributed to three different networks which have been established for this campaign. These data were supplemented by weather model data. The data set is made available to all interested users in order to provide an optimal database for the analysis and interpretation of the CONT-17 VLBI data. In addition, it is an outstanding data set for the validation and comparison of tropospheric parameters resulting from different space techniques with regard to the establishment of a common atmosphere at co-location sites. The regularly recorded atmospheric parameters comprise many meteorological quantities (pressure, temperature, humidity, wind, radiation, and precipitation) taken from the local weather station close to the surface, solar radiation intensity, temperatures up to 1000 m above the surface from a temperature profiler, total vapor and liquid water content from a water vapor radiometer, and cloud coverage and cloud temperatures from a nubiscope. Additionally, vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, and humidity from radiosonde balloons and from numerical weather models were used for comparison and validation. The graphical representation and comparison show a good correlation in general but also some disagreements in certain weather situations. While the accuracy and the temporal and spatial resolution of the individual data sets are very different, the data as a whole characterize the atmospheric conditions around Wettzell during the CONT-17 campaign comprehensively and represent a sound basis for further investigations (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.895518; Klügel et al., 2018).

Do weak global stresses synchronize earthquakes?

AbstractInsofar as slip in an earthquake is related to the strain accumulated near a fault since a previous earthquake, and this process repeats many times, the earthquake cycle approximates an autonomous oscillator. Its asymmetric slow accumulation of strain and rapid release is quite unlike the harmonic motion of a pendulum and need not be time predictable, but still resembles a class of repeating systems known as integrate‐and‐fire oscillators, whose behavior has been shown to demonstrate a remarkable ability to synchronize to either external or self‐organized forcing. Given sufficient time and even very weak physical coupling, the phases of sets of such oscillators, with similar though not necessarily identical period, approach each other. Topological and time series analyses presented here demonstrate that earthquakes worldwide show evidence of such synchronization. Though numerous studies demonstrate that the composite temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the instrumental record is indistinguishable from random, the additional consideration of event renewal interval serves to identify earthquake groupings suggestive of synchronization that are absent in synthetic catalogs. We envisage the weak forces responsible for clustering originate from lithospheric strain induced by seismicity itself, by finite strains over teleseismic distances, or by other sources of lithospheric loading such as Earth's variable rotation. For example, quasi‐periodic maxima in rotational deceleration are accompanied by increased global seismicity at multidecadal intervals.

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the axial atmospheric angular momentum

Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM (atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component χ3, which undergoes especially strong variations, induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD (length of day) were described. We applied MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis) jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-month, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs (Principal components) strongly related to ENSO (El Nino southern oscillation) were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.

On the Influence of Known Diurnal and Subdiurnal Signals in Polar Motion and UT1 on Ring Laser Gyroscope Observations

The ring laser gyroscope (RLG) technique has been investigated for about 20 years as a potential complement to space geodetic techniques in measuring variations of Earth rotation. The technique is of great interest, especially in the context of monitoring rapid changes of rotation with sub-daily resolution. In this paper, we review how the known high frequency signals in Earth rotation parameters, including the so-called diurnal polar motion, diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tide effects in polar motion and UT1 and librations, prograde diurnal in polar motion and semidiurnal in UT1, contribute to the RLG observable, the Sagnac frequency. Our results suggest that at the current accuracy level of the technique, the signals coming from diurnal polar motion and ocean tides should be taken into account in analysis while the influence of libration can be neglected. We also point out that the contributing signals are superimposed upon each other and can hardly be separated from the data from a single instrument. Our computations are done taking parameters of the RLG at the Wettzell Observatory in Germany. However, we also consider how the strength of a particular signal depends on the geographic location of a horizontally mounted instrument. Finally, we discuss the relationship between the geographical location and terrestrial orientation of RLG and its consequence for the observed Sagnac signal.

Global geodynamic changes induced by all major earthquakes, 1976–2015

AbstractUsing normal‐mode summations we calculate the coseismic changes in a suite of global geodynamic quantities produced by all the 43,304 major earthquakes that occurred during 1976–2015 from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue. We calculate changes for the Earth's inertia tensor elements and the ensuing Earth's rotation variations, as well as the monopolar changes of the volume ΔV(r), the total moment of inertia ΔT(r), and the gravitational energy ΔEg(r) as functions of the radius inside the Earth. The cumulative geodynamic changes are found to have strong statistical trends that are continuing from the past and further strengthened in recent years. Statistical analyses indicate that the thrust‐faulting earthquakes are predominantly responsible for these trends, as they are the dominant type overshadowing the normal‐faulting earthquakes that tend to produce the opposite effects. In particular, we report that the polar motion excitations due to the few greatest earthquakes since 2004 have facilitated the abrupt turn of the pole path observed during these years. For the monopolar parameters, we find an overall shrinkage in Earth's volume V(r) internally but an expansion near Earth's surface. The ensuing gravitational instability cannot be sustained over time and will be reversed by aseismic and interseismic deformations. The ΔT(r) and ΔEg(r) also exhibit trends where the coseismic action of earthquakes collectively makes the Earth more compact and dissipate a great amount of gravitational energy. Although aseismic effects are not addressed here, these coseismic trends are in keeping with the long‐term physical evolution of the Earth.

High-frequency Earth rotation variations deduced from altimetry-based ocean tides

A model of diurnal and semi-diurnal variations in Earth rotation parameters (ERP) is constructed based on altimetry-measured tidal heights from a multi-mission empirical ocean tide solution. Barotropic currents contributing to relative angular momentum changes are estimated for nine major tides in a global inversion algorithm that solves the two-dimensional momentum equations on a regular 0.5 $$^\circ $$ grid with a heavily weighted continuity constraint. The influence of 19 minor tides is accounted for by linear admittance interpolation of ocean tidal angular momentum, although the assumption of smooth admittance variations with frequency appears to be a doubtful concept for semi-diurnal mass terms in particular. A validation of the newly derived model based on post-fit corrections to polar motion and universal time ( $$\Delta $$ UT1) from the analysis of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations shows a variance reduction for semi-diurnal $$\Delta $$ UT1 residuals that is significant at the 0.05 level with respect to the conventional ERP model. Improvements are also evident for the explicitly modeled K $$_1$$ , Q $$_1$$ , and K $$_2$$ tides in individual ERP components, but large residuals of more than 15 $$\upmu $$ as remain at the principal lunar frequencies of O $$_1$$ and M $$_2$$ . We attribute these shortcomings to uncertainties in the inverted relative angular momentum changes and, to a minor extent, to violation of mass conservation in the empirical ocean tide solution. Further dedicated hydrodynamic modeling efforts of these anomalous constituents are required to meet the accuracy standards of modern space geodesy.

A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale

Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we decomposed climatic time series into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic oscillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly (HadCRUT4) and global mean sea level (GMSL). Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.

Optimized scheduling of VLBI UT1 intensive sessions for twin telescopes employing impact factor analysis

Daily Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) intensive measurements make an important contribution to the regular monitoring of Earth rotation variations. Since these variations are quite rapid, their knowledge is important for navigation with global navigation satellite system and for investigations in Earth sciences. Unfortunately, the precision of VLBI intensive observations is 2–3 times worse than the precision of regular 24h-VLBI measurements with networks of 5–10 radio telescopes. The major advancement of research in this paper is the improvement of VLBI intensive results by (a) using twin telescopes instead of single telescopes and (b) applying an entirely new scheduling concept for the individual observations. Preparatory investigations of standardintensive sessions suggest that the impact factors of the observations are well suited for the identification of the most influential observations which are needed for the determination of certain parameters within the entire design of a VLBI session. Based on this experience, the scheduling method is designed for optimizing the observations’ geometry for a given network of radio telescopes and a predefined set of parameters to be estimated. The configuration of at least two twin telescopes, or one twin and two single telescopes, offers the possibility of building pairwise sub-nets that observe two different sources simultaneously. In addition to an optimized observing plan, a special parametrization for twin telescopes leads to an improved determination of Earth rotation variations, as it is shown by simulated observations. In general, an improvement of about 50 % in the formal errors can be realized using twin radio telescopes. This result is only due to geometric improvements as higher slew rates of the twin telescopes are not taken into account.

Influence of ocean tides on the diurnal and semidiurnal earth rotation variations from VLBI observations

The International astrogeodetic standard IERS Conventions (2010) contains a model of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations in Earth rotation parameters (ERPs), the pole coordinates and the Universal Time, arising from lunisolar tides in the world ocean. This model was constructed in the mid-1990s through a global analysis of Topex/Poseidon altimetry. The goal of this study is to try to estimate the parameters of this model by processing all the available VLBI observations on a global network of stations over the last 35 years performed within the framework of IVS (International VLBI Service) geodetic programs. The complexity of the problemlies in the fact that the sought-for corrections to the parameters of this model lie within 1 mm and, thus, are at the limit of their detectability by all currently available methods of ground-based positional measurements. This requires applying universal software packages with a high accuracy of reduction calculations and a well-developed system of controlling the simultaneous adjustment of observational data to analyze long series of VLBI observations. This study has been performed with the QUASAR software package developed at the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Although the results obtained, on the whole, confirm a high accuracy of the basic model in the IERS Conventions (2010), statistically significant corrections that allow this model to be refined have been detected for some harmonics of the ERP variations.

Possible relationship between the Earth's rotation variations and geomagnetic field reversals over the past 510 Myr

The Earth’s rotation can change as a result of several internal and external processes, each of which is at a different timescale. Here, we present some possible connections between the Earth’s rotation variations and the geomagnetic reversal frequency rates over the past 120 Myr. In addition, we show the possible relationship between the geomagnetic field reversal frequency and the δ18O oscillations. Because the latter reflects the glacial and interglacial periods, we hypothesize that it can be used as a possible indicator to explain the length of day (LOD) variations and consequently the reversal field frequency over the past 510 Myr. Therefore, our analysis suggests that the relationships between the geomagnetic reversal frequency rates and the Earth’s rotation changes during the Phanerozoic. However, more reversal data are required for periods before the KRS to strengthen the perspective of using the geomagnetic reversal data as a marker for the LOD variations through geological times.

Possible influence of the 11-year solar cycle on length-of-day change

Earth variable rotation with its complex state of motion and excitation mechanism that indicates complex overall geodynamical process of the Earth’s system, reflects interactions among the solid Earth, atmosphere and oceans, etc. Solar activity has been found to be strongly correlated with some geophysical processes in the Earth system. In order to investigate the affects of solar activity on Earth rotation using the wavelet transform technique, the yearly Earth’s length-of-day (LOD) time series spanning hundreds of years is used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component. The results show obvious fluctuation in the LOD variations. We suggest that the solar activity plays an important role in the oscillation of the Earth rotation, and that there is a possible relationship between solar activity and Earth rotation on decadal time scale.

Earth rotation parameter and variation during 2005–2010 solved with LAGEOS SLR data

Time series of Earth rotation parameters were estimated from range data measured by the satellite laser ranging technique to the Laser Geodynamics Satellites (LAGEOS)-1/2 through 2005 to 2010 using the dynamic method. Compared with Earth orientation parameter (EOP) C04, released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, the root mean square errors for the measured X and Y of polar motion (PM) and length of day (LOD) were 0.24 and 0.25 milliarcseconds (mas), and 0.068 milliseconds (ms), respectively. Compared with ILRSA EOP, the X and Y of PM and LOD were 0.27 and 0.30 mas, and 0.054 ms, respectively. The time series were analyzed using the wavelet transformation and least squares methods. Wavelet analysis showed obvious seasonal and interannual variations of LOD, and both annual and Chandler variations of PM; however, the annual variation could not be distinguished from the Chandler variation because the two frequencies were very close. The trends and periodic variations of LOD and PM were obtained in the least squares sense, and PM showed semi-annual, annual, and Chandler periods. Semi-annual, annual, and quasi-biennial cycles for LOD were also detected. The trend rates of PM in the X and Y directions were 3.17 and −1.60 mas per year, respectively, and the North Pole moved to 26.8°E relative to the crust during 2005–2010. The trend rate of the LOD change was 0.028 ms per year.

Observations of stratospheric sudden warmings in Earth rotation variations

AbstractStratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are extreme events in the polar stratosphere that are both caused by and have effects on the tropospheric flow. This means that SSWs are associated with changes in the angular momentum of the atmosphere, both before and after their onset. Because these angular momentum changes are transferred to the solid Earth, they can be observed in the rate of the Earth's rotation and the wobble of its rotational pole. By comparing observed Earth rotation variations to reanalysis data, we find that an anomaly in the orientation of the Earth's rotational pole, up to 4 times as large as the annual polar wobble, typically precedes SSWs by 20–40 days. The polar motion signal is due to pressure anomalies that are typically seen before SSW events and represents a new type of observable that may aid in the prediction of SSWs. A decline in the length of day is also seen, on average, near the time of the SSW wind reversal and is found to be due to anomalous easterly winds generated in the tropical troposphere around this time, though the structure and timing of this signal seems to vary widely from event to event.

Earth's rotation variations: a wavelet analysis

AbstractHistorical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.

On tidal tilt corrections to large ring laser gyroscope observations

Abstract With the fast development of the large ring laser gyroscope (RLG) technology in the last decades, promising applications in geophysics and geodesy (e.g. observations of high-frequency variations of Earth's rotation, Earth's tide tilt and seismic waves) have been realized by various groups with currently running large RLGs. In this letter, we point out that in a large number of previous tilt correction models a significant term is missing. This term is related with the Shida number l2 (called l2-term in the following) and has a contribution, which is comparable with that from high-frequency Earth rotation variations due to ocean tides, to the Sagnac frequency record of RLGs. This term has to be removed (as part of the tilt correction) from the raw data so that RLGs can efficiently be employed as Earth's rotation detectors.

The Ability of the GPS to Monitor Earth Rotation Variation

Based on optical observations earth rotation variations have been monitored since the beginning of the century. Their part has been taken over within the past 25 years by space geodetic techniques like SLR, LLR and VLBI, which took a center stage in the determination of oscillations in the earth orientation parameters on different time scales. Moreover, in the early nineties the microwave techniques, in particular the GPS, turned out to be an excellent sensor for earth rotation variations, comparable to VLBI both in accuracy and resolution. The given article deals with principles related to the processing of GPS data, touches on the problems of satellite orbit determination and focuses on the estimation of subdaily polar motion and UT1. Finally, contributions of the GPS to the determination of an improved nutation model are presented.