Earnings Replacement Rates Research Articles

Пенсионное страхование как институт социальной защиты населения: состояние, проблемы и перспективы

The article examines the function of pension insurance in the social security system of Russian Federation. The purpose of the article is to determine whether the insurance system is capable of performing its social and economic objectives. The research is based on the analysis of the Russian Federation legislation and scientific works of Russian authors on the development and performance problems of the pension insurance system in Russia. The article studies the main legal provisions of compulsory and voluntary pension insurance in the Russian Federation, examines the main aspects of the compulsory and voluntary pension insurance performance, identifies problem areas, analyzes the dynamics of the earnings replacement rate, considers the factors that negatively impact the interest of citizens in voluntary pension insurance. The author comes to the conclusion that the best option for the development of pension insurance is the joint use of voluntary and compulsory forms of pension insurance.

ASSESSING THE ADEQUACY OF SOCIAL SECURITY RETIREMENT BENEFITS ACROSS RACE-ETHNICITY, GENDER, AND AGE OF RETIREMENT

This research assessed the adequacy of Social Security retirement benefits across race-ethnicity, gender, and age of retirement, and in turn, whether the differing levels of benefit adequacy have any relation to mortality risk. Prior studies generally find that a replacement rate of between 70 to 80 percent of prior earnings would likely allow a worker to maintain his or her standard of living in retirement since various work-related expenses are reduced or eliminated at the point of transition. As such, the current study used panel data from the 1996 - 2016 waves of the Rand version of the Health and Retirement Study to 1) determine earnings replacement rates for non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic males and females in the first period of retirement, and 2) to examine whether earnings replacement rates are associated with mortality risk in a Cox regression model. The findings revealed that for those retiring at age 65 or later, Hispanic females and White males had the lowest earnings replacement rates at 39.3% and 40.7%, respectively. For those retiring before age 65, Hispanic males and White males had the lowest earnings replacement rates at 30.3% and 26.7%. Although replacement rates should indeed be lower for high earners due to Social Security’s progressive benefit formula, the low replacement rates determined for Hispanic males and females were unexpected. Moreover, mortality risk was found to be significantly associated with earnings replacement rates in the final model, but the combination of race-ethnicity and gender still showed a stronger relation.

Reforming Australia's Superannuation Tax System and the Age Pension to Improve Work and Savings Incentives

AbstractAustralia's retirement income system combines private and public provision for old age. Retirees rely on private (but highly regulated) superannuation saving that attracts large tax concessions; a public, means‐tested age pension; home ownership; and other private savings. Despite recent changes intended to make the system fairer and more fiscally sustainable, Australia's retirement income system still lacks coherence, produces inequitable outcomes and creates high effective tax rates on work and saving. This article proposes a more coherent approach to address fairness, reduce the effective tax rates on work and saving and provide adequate earnings replacement rates with greater fiscal sustainability than is delivered in the recent reforms.

The Life Cycle Model, Replacement Rates, and Retirement Income Adequacy

The key insight of the life cycle model in economics is that a household’s consumption at any given time is determined not so much by its current income as by the total income available to the household over its lifetime. A replacement rate can be a useful tool in approximating the life cycle model’s predictions for how households prepare for retirement. The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary (SSA OACT) publishes two different calculations of retirement income replacement rates, each of which finds that Social Security benefits replace about 40% of a typical retiree’s pre-retirement earnings. Some interpret these figures as indicating that Social Security benefits are insufficiently generous and that U.S. households’ total retirement saving is inadequate. But SSA OACT’s two methods for calculating replacement rates both violate the life cycle model in a meaningful way. SSA OACT’s career-average earnings replacement rates, in which lifetime earnings are first indexed upward by the rate of economywide wage growth, exaggerates by roughly one-fifth the real value of earnings available to a household for consumption over its lifetime. This overstatement lowers a household’s measured ability to replace their pre-retirement earnings. SSA OACT’s final-earnings replacement rates effectively compare Social Security retirement benefits to pre-retirement earnings only in the years in which the individual worked, ignoring the life cycle model’s prediction that household consumption is a function of long-term average earnings, including years in which a household member was not employed. A replacement-rate calculation more consistent with the life cycle model would compare retirement income to an average of real earnings calculated over a significant number of years. Such an approach would find substantially higher replacement rates for the typical retiree. It is important both for Social Security policy and the analysis of overall retirement savings adequacy that replacement-rate calculations build on the insights of the life cycle model that guides most economic analysis of retirement saving.

HOW ACCURATELY DOES 70% FINAL EMPLOYMENT EARNINGS REPLACEMENT MEASURE RETIREMENT INCOME (IN)ADEQUACY? INTRODUCING THE LIVING STANDARDS REPLACEMENT RATE (LSRR)

AbstractWill 70% of a worker's final annual employment earnings sustain living standards after retirement? Despite increasing skepticism, the most dominant measure of retirement income adequacy by financial planners, pensions plan advisors, academics and public policy makers is the “final employment earnings replacement rate”, where 70% is considered the right target to ensure living standards remain at approximately the same level after retirement. Using Statistics Canada's LifePaths dynamic population micro-simulation model, this paper asks whether those individuals from the 1951–1958 Canadian birth cohort who attain roughly a 70% final employment earnings replacement rate (as conventionally measured) at retirement do, in fact, achieve approximate continuity in their living standards. We find that the conventional final earnings replacement rate measure has little predictive value for living standards continuity between working-life and retirement. The primary reason is that employment earnings in a single year is not a reliable representation of a worker's standard of living — it relies on an inadequate pre-retirement measurement period, does not incorporate important components of consumption sources (such as home equity), and ignores household size (particularly children). As a result, we find that the correlation between the conventional earnings replacement rate and actual living standards continuity is relatively low (0.11). The paper therefore suggests an alternative metric for assessing how well a worker's living standard is maintained after retirement — i.e., the Living Standards Replacement Rate, or the LSRR. The LSRR provides a more accurate, understandable and consistent measure of retirement income adequacy.

Международные правовые стандарты пенсионного обеспечения и российская страховая пенсионная система

The author considers the basic content of international instruments and the ILO Convention on minimum standards of social security and the need to take them into account in the Russian insurance pension legislation. In Russia, a higher minimum standard insurance for old age pensions is set without sufficient grounds and additional conditions for awarding such pension have been introduced, which will lead to the deprivation of the right to pension for many citizens. The author also assesses a special technique for determining the earnings replacement rate by pension suggested for Russia which does not coincide with the rules defined by the Convention, which leads to its ungrounded overrating.

Measuring and Communicating Social Security Earnings Replacement Rates

Financial advisors commonly use earnings replacement rates to assist workers in their retirement planning. Policymakers and analysts use them to gauge the adequacy of Social Security benefits and other retirement income in allowing retirees to maintain preretirement living standards. In recent years, the Social Security trustees have regularly published replacement rates that have been widely interpreted as the extent to which Social Security benefits replace earnings of workers at various points in the lifetime earnings distribution. However, the trustees’ replacement rates are calculated differently than those generally used for retirement planning purposes, possibly leading to confusion among policymakers and others regarding how much of workers’ earnings are replaced by Social Security and how much those workers need to save on their own for retirement. Financial planners calculate replacement rates by comparing an individual’s retirement income to that same individual’s preretirement earnings, generally earnings in the years immediately preceding retirement. The Social Security Administration, by contrast, effectively calculates replacement rates by comparing retiree incomes to the incomes of contemporaneous workers. This latter measure is often used in other countries but differs both qualitatively and quantitatively from the more common replacement-rate calculations used for financial planning purposes. We find that replacement rates calculated on a financial planning basis are generally higher than those published by the Social Security trustees and that Social Security benefits generally replace somewhat more of individual workers’ earnings than the trustees’ rates suggest.

Measuring and Communicating Social Security Earnings Replacement Rates

Financial advisors commonly use earnings replacement rates to assist workers in their retirement planning. Policymakers and analysts use them to gauge the adequacy of Social Security benefits and other retirement income in allowing retirees to maintain preretirement living standards. In recent years, the Social Security trustees regularly published replacement rates that have been widely interpreted as the extent to which Social Security benefits replace earnings of workers at various points in the lifetime earnings distribution. However, the trustees’ replacement rates are calculated differently than those generally used for retirement planning purposes possibly leading to confusion among policymakers and others regarding how much of workers’ earnings are replaced by Social Security and how much those workers need to save on their own for retirement. Financial planners calculate replacement rates by comparing an individual’s retirement income to that same individual’s pre-retirement earnings, generally earnings in the years immediately preceding retirement. The Social Security Administration, by contrast, effectively calculates replacement rates by comparing retiree incomes to the incomes of contemporaneous workers. This latter measure is often used in other countries, but differs both qualitatively and quantitatively from the more common replacement rate calculations used for financial planning purposes. We find that replacement rates calculated on a financial planning basis are generally higher than those published by the Social Security trustees and that Social Security benefits generally replace somewhat more of individual workers’ earnings than the trustees’ rates suggest.

Pension Coverage, Retirement Status, and Earnings Replacement Rates Among a Cohort of Canadian Seniors

Data from the Longitudinal Administrative Data (LAD) base are used to compare the retirement status and earnings replacement rates achieved by individuals who were, and individuals who were not, Registered Pension Plan members in 1991 and/or 1992, when they were in their mid-fifties. Among men in this cohort, the likelihood of being retired at age 70 to 72 was about 4 to 14 percentage points higher among pension plan members than non-members. Data used for the study do not provide information on why RPP non-members tend to retire later than do members. Among retired individuals, earnings replacement rates did not differ significantly between RPP members and non-members.

Fathers in Childcare in Austria

This article focuses on structural components that influence fathers in Austria in their decision to take paternal leave and stay at home when the child is below the age of three. First, it can be shown that the value structure in Austrian society does not motivate fathers to take leave. Second, we look at the employment and income structure as well as at the availability of childcare facilities. In particular, differences in earnings do not encourage fathers to stay at home. Family policies in Austria offer different models of parental leave where the earnings replacement rate is low and parental leave periods can be long. The outcome that, in view of the measures introduced, a rather low rate of fathers take the childcare benefit and stay at home is discussed. As a consequence, all the factors examined in this article likely perpetuate the inequality of men and women in the field of caring for children and maintain the existing structure.

Labour Market Institutions, Skills, and the Resilience of Innovation During the Financial Crisis in Europe

This paper compares investments in innovation from the early days of the financial crisis up to mid 2009 using a survey covering more than 5,000 firms across twenty one European countries. Our interest is in how differences in labour market institutions and human capital affect a firm’s innovation investment during the recent financial crisis. We find that investment in innovation in Europe during the onset of the financial crisis in 2008-9, was strongest in countries which have both high earnings replacement rates and high participation in vocational education and training; countries with just one were more likely to see reduced innovation, while we find no effect - either positive or negative - from employment protection.

A Note on Pension Coverage and Earnings Replacement Rates of Retired Men: A Closer Look at Distributions

In spite of the importance of registered pension plans (RPPs) in discussions of Canada’s retirement income system, very few Canadian studies have examined the financial outcomes experienced by RPP members and RPP non-members. Using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD), this paper compares the distributions of earnings replacement rates achieved by retired men who were or were not members of a registered pension plan (RPP) in 1991 and/or 1992. The distributions of earnings replacement rates of men who were not RPP members are far more dispersed than those of men who were RPP members. And while the average earnings replacement rates of the two groups are generally comparable, the median earnings replacement rates of RPP non-members are lower than those of RPP members as a result of asymmetry in the distributions.

Pension Coverage and Earnings Replacement Rates Among Canadian Couples

Using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD), this paper compares the earnings replacement rates achieved in retirement by a sample of married and common-law couples in which the husband was aged 55 to 57 in 1991. Emphasis is placed on the outcomes experienced by couples in which one spouse or both spouses had registered pension plan (RPP) coverage and by couples without RPP coverage. The earnings replacement rates achieved by couples without RPP coverage are more widely dispersed than those of couples with RPP coverage. When compared at the mid-points of the pre-retirement earnings distributions, the median earnings replacement rates of couples without RPP coverage are about three to six percentage points lower than those of couples with RPP coverage. In contrast, the average earnings replacement rates of couples without RPP coverage are generally six to twelve percentage points higher than those of couples with RPP coverage.

Social Security as a Retirement Resource for Near-Retirees, by Race and Ethnicity, Nativity, Benefit Type, and Disability Status

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource for selected subgroups of current and recent cohorts of near-retirees. The paper examines the distribution of benefits among (1) several race-ethnic subgroups, (2) the native-born and the foreign-born, (3) worker, spouse, and survivor beneficiaries, and (4) the disabled and the nondisabled. We use improved data (actual earnings history data) to produce more accurate measures of benefits. We look at how the average values of several benefit measures such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates differ among the selected subgroups and discuss reasons for these differences. We find that substantial differences in earnings levels and/or mortality levels among these subgroups interact with Social Security program provisions to produce sizable differences in the values of our benefit measures.

Notional defined contributions (NDC): Solvency and risk in Spain

The aim of this article is twofold: to demonstrate the actuarial imbalance in the Spanish pension system in its current form; and to measure the degree of aggregate economic risk to which pensioners are exposed when applying formulas for the calculation of retirement pensions based on notional accounts. The model used generates scenarios for various periods encompassing some 10,000 different permutations of the macroeconomic indices needed to calculate such parameters as initial pension, earnings replacement rate, or internal rate of return and value at risk. The findings are analysed both objectively and subjectively. The main conclusions are that if the projections for the macroeconomic indices used bear only a minimal resemblance to reality, the pension system will accumulate further financial imbalance in the future that will force it either to reduce initial pensions considerably or to make some radical adjustments to the parameters. In terms of risk, for beneficiaries with high risk aversion the preferred formulas would be those based on future variations in wages with a constant pension amount in real terms; on the other hand, those less averse to risk would prefer formulas that generate a smaller initial pension but one which grows in real terms with subsequent changes in wage levels.

SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS AS A RETIREMENT RESOURCE FOR U.S. NEAR‐RETIREES

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource (wealth and income) for U.S. near‐retirees. We look at how the average values of several measures of benefits such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates have changed from earlier cohorts to today's near‐retirement cohort, examine differences among demographic and socioeconomic groups within cohorts, and discuss reasons for these changes and differences. We use improved data (actual earnings history data) to produce more accurate measures of benefits. The paper also uses some new benefit measures. Three key findings are: (1) average real Social Security wealth increases markedly as we move to later cohorts primarily because of increases in average real lifetime earnings; (2) replacement rates fall as we move from the cohorts of persons reaching 61 in 1993–97 to later cohorts primarily because of the phase‐in of increases in the age of eligibility for full benefits and the increasing labor market activity of women; and (3) median Social Security wealth is much higher for women than for men because women live longer.

The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment

Between 1984 and 2001, the share of nonelderly adults receiving Social Security Disability Insurance income (DI) rose by 60 percent to 5.3 million beneficiaries. Rapid program growth despite improving aggregate health appears to be explained by reduced screening stringency, declining demand for less skilled workers, and an unforeseen increase in the earnings replacement rate. We estimate that the sum of these forces doubled the labor force exit propensity of displaced high school dropouts after 1984, lowering measured U. S. unemployment by one-half a percentage point. Steady state calculations augur a further 40 percent increase in the rate of DI receipt.

Caught in the Net: The Impact of Changes to Canadian Employment Insurance Legislation on Part-time Workers

Throughout Western highly industrialised countries, there has been a marked shift toward more conservative social policies signalling a dismantling of the welfare state as part of the process of globalisation. This paper examines the aetiology of the (un)employment insurance programme in the Canadian context. Recently, legislators have tightened eligibility rules, lowered earnings replacement rates and altered coverage requirements. While these changes signal a shredding of the social safety net, they differentially impact on certain segments of the population. Despite official pronouncements of fairness, employment insurance changes intensify the subordination women experience in the paid labour force.

The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment

Between 1984 and 2000, the share of non-elderly adults receiving benefits from the Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs rose from 3.1 to 5.3 percent. We trace this growth to reduced screening stringency and, due to the interaction between growing wage inequality and a progressive benefits formula, a rising earnings replacement rate. We explore the implications of these changes for the level of labor force participation among the less skilled and their employment responses to adverse employment shocks. Following program liberalization in 1984, DI application and recipiency rates became two to three times as responsive to plausibly exogenous labor demand shocks. Contemporaneously, male and female high school dropouts became increasingly likely to exit the labor force rather than enter unemployment in the event of an adverse shock. The liberalization of the disability program appears to explain both facts. Accounting for the role of disability in inducing labor force exit among the low-skilled unemployed, we calculate that the U.S. unemployment rate would be two-thirds of a percentage point higher at present were it not for the liberalized disability system.

Policy Roundtable: Comment

generosity of the Unemployment Insurance program in Canada does explain a good part of the US-Canada unemployment gap observed in the 1980s, but fails to explain the gap prevailing in the 1990s. If anything, changes to the UI system should have contributed to close the gap in the 1990s. The rapid fall in the beneficiaries to unemployment ratio (the B/U ratio) in Canada since the beginning of the 1990s, as noted by several speakers, provides a first indication that any perverse effects the UI system may have had historically on the unemployment rate are fading away fast. An increasing proportion of total unemployment consists of unemployed persons who are not, or are no longer, collecting UI benefits. As Chart I shows, not only has the B/U ratio in Canada been falling drastically, but the difference between the B/U ratios in Canada and the US has been considerably reduced. This development suggests a narrowing of any differential impact the respective UI regimes may have had on the behaviour of the Canadian and US populations. A closer examination of the recent evolution of the relative generosity of the UI system also points to a declining role of UI in explaining the unemployment gap. This observation was made by several participants, including Manfred Keil, Andrew Sharpe and Charles Beach. Three subsequent reforms of the UI system, in 1990, 1993 and 1994, have contributed to reduce the benefits duration, disqualify voluntary quitters and lower the replacement rates. Table 1 summarizes the evolution of the relative generosity of the UI system since 1970. Two indices of work disincentives are represented: the Sargent index and the Fortin index. Both indices assume that the key UI parameters affecting workers' deci ion are the earnings replacement rate, the minimum number of weeks required to qualify for UI, and the number of weeks of benefit one receives if one works the mini-