Earnings Recovery Research Articles

Loss, Recovery and the Long Road Ahead: Tracking India's Informal Workers Through the Pandemic.

Drawing on results from a panel of 2778 workers interviewed during and after the 68-day hard lockdown imposed in India, the following study examines the livelihood impact of the pandemic and the extent of subsequent recovery or lack thereof. Focussing specifically on workers located in the informal economy, the study is a useful addition to the burgeoning body of work on the economic impacts of Covid-19 by providing an insight into the employment and earnings recovery of those located at the margins. These findings are spliced across socio-economic groups to showcase the differential impact of the pandemic on different demographics within the informal sector. Our results show that six months after the hard lockdown, one out five persons were still out of work. Conditioned on being employed prior to the lockdown and having lost work during the lockdown, we find that urban respondents, women, workers above 60 and graduates were significantly less likely to recover from the shock. A similar exercise carried out for women workers showed that middle aged women, never married women and women who were not-literate or educated up until primary and middle school were significantly more likely to recover from job loss. Older women, those located in urban areas and Muslim women were on the other hand significantly less likely to recover from the job loss. Earnings on the whole were half of what they used to be prior to the pandemic. Some better off workers shifted to more precarious types of employment. Given the fall in earnings, poorer worker households were forced to borrow and the amount of loan taken was multiple times their average monthly income. In the context of loss in employment and reverse migration, the survey results show a substantial unmet demand for work under the MGNREGA programme even after the lockdown was lifted. We conclude that despite a partial recovery in the subsequent period, the pandemic-induced lockdown has undermined the material conditions for subsistence for a large segment within the informal economy. Moreover, any attempts made to re-imagine what a social protection programme for the informal economy should look like must take into account the segments most susceptible to an economic shock on their livelihoods.

The Economic Effect of Chronic Comorbidities in Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Workers' Compensation Claimants, Washington State.

Assess the effect of chronic comorbidities on hours and earnings recovery following a carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) claim. The hours and earnings profiles of Washington State workers' compensation claimants with CTS and controls, upper extremity fractures (UEF) claimants, were collected by linking to unemployment insurance data during 2007 to 2014. Chronic comorbidity status was determined from workers' compensation bills. More (43%) CTS claimants had diagnosed chronic comorbidities than UEF (24%). CTS claimants and claimants with multiple chronic comorbidities had significantly higher odds of not working post injury and poorer hours and earnings recovery compared with UEF claimants and those with no chronic comorbidities. This research suggests that chronic conditions should be considered as barriers to return to work among injured workers.

India Equity Market Valuations: The Need to Exercise Prudence

While the earnings recovery has yet to realize itself, equity markets in India have continued to move up. As indices have moved up while earnings have largely failed to keep pace, valuations, to the extent that one bases them on the current earnings power of the business, have increasingly extended themselves in the overvalued zone. At Multi-Act EquiGlobe and at Sapphire Capital, we are primarily focused on a small sub-set of businesses. Our target investment universe is comprised of high quality businesses that possess durable competitive advantages. In our efforts to effectively answer the question of top-down valuations, we built a bottom-up model of companies in our investment universe; the India Moats Index. Our analysis covers 65 unique companies over the last 12 years. We take a deep dive into the profitability of these businesses as a group, levels of leverage employed, business reinvestments and share buybacks, and business valuations. Our findings suggest that the high-quality business sub-set is overvalued as well. We find that the valuation dispersion within the high quality business space is continuing to be wide allowing us to selectively construct a superior portfolio as compared to the wider investment universe.

The Perfect Storm: Graduating during a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market

Using Spanish Social Security data merged with Labor Force Survey data, this article analyzes the effects of entry labor market conditions on workers’ careers two to three decades after graduating in Spain, a country well known for its highly segmented labor market and rigid labor market institutions. In contrast to more flexible labor markets such as in the United States or Canada, the authors find that following a recession the annual earnings losses of individuals without a university degree are greater and more persistent than those of college graduates. For workers without a college degree, the effect is driven by a lower likelihood of employment. For college graduates, the negative impact on earnings is driven by both a higher probability of non-employment and employment in jobs with fixed-term contracts. Although a negative shock increases mobility of college graduates across firms and industries, no earnings recovery occurs for the individual, just secondary labor market job churning. Results are consistent with the tight regulations of the Spanish labor market, such as binding minimum wages and downward wage rigidity caused by collective bargaining agreements.

Parental Proximity and the Earnings Consequences of Job Loss

We find post-job-loss earnings recovery is faster for young adults who live near their parents than for young adults who live farther away. This positive effect diminishes gradually as the distance to one's parents increases. Most of the effect is driven by higher wages after job displacement, not by differences in the number of hours worked. The effect is not present for older workers, who may be caring for elderly parents.

The Perfect Storm: Graduating in a Recession in a Segmented Labor Market

This paper analyzes the effects of entry labor-market conditions on workers' career in Spain, a country well known for its highly segmented labor market and rigid labor-market institutions. In contrast with more flexible labor markets, we find that the annual earnings losses of individuals without a university degree are greater and more persistent than those of college graduates. For workers without a college degree, the effect is driven by a lower likelihood of employment. For college graduates, the negative impact on earnings is driven by both a higher probability of non-employment, and employment in jobs with fixed-term contracts. While a negative shock increases mobility of college graduates across firms and industries, there is no earnings recovery, just secondary labor-market job churning. Our results are consistent with tight regulations of the Spanish labor market such as binding minimum wages and downward wage rigidity caused by collective bargaining agreements.

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

Navigating work disability paradigms and reform in Canada

Objective: We investigate labour-market earnings of workers’ compensation claimants from three distinctly different workers’ compensation insurance support programs for claimants with permanent impairments. These three programs, which existed in Ontario, Canada in different periods over the last 25 years, are the Permanent Disability (PD) program, the Future Economic Loss (FEL) program, and the Loss of Earnings (LOE) program. The nature of benefit determination and the return to work supports provided by three programs are very different. The focus of the study is on evidence of programmatic impact on labour-market earnings recovery trajectories over nine years post injury.Methods: The study included claimants sampled from each of the three programs who sustained a permanent impairment from a work injury. Claimants were identified in a Revenue Canada tax file database known as the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD), which is a longitudinal 20% simple random sample of all Canadian tax filers. Each claimant was matched with similar uninjured controls that were also in the LAD, based on sex, age, labour-market earnings amounts and trajectories in the four years prior to injury, and a propensity score. Statistical modeling analysis was undertaken to compare the labour-market earnings trajectories of claimants relative to their matched controls using data on earnings over the nine years post injury. Analyses focused on sub-strata defined by program, sex, age, permanent impairment level, and pre-injury earnings. A key issue of interest was to determine which program of supports resulted in the best labour-market earnings recovery.Results: Five distinct earnings recovery trajectories were identified. Claimants in various demographic and pre-injury earnings sub-strata from the LOE program cohort had a statistically significant lower probability of the lowest earnings recovery trajectory, and higher probability of the second highest trajectory compared to the PD cohort. Results for the LOE program were similar to the FEL program.Conclusions: Injured workers from the LOE program appear to fare better than claimants from the PD program and similarly to those from the FEL program in terms of labour-market earnings recovery over the nine years post injury. Across all programs, older claimants fare more poorly, and women fare worse than men in terms of labour-market earnings recovery.

Work disability trajectories under three workers’ compensation programs

Objective: We investigate labour-market earnings of workers’ compensation claimants from three distinctly different workers’ compensation insurance support programs for claimants with permanent impairments. These three programs, which existed in Ontario, Canada in different periods over the last 25 years, are the Permanent Disability (PD) program, the Future Economic Loss (FEL) program, and the Loss of Earnings (LOE) program. The nature of benefit determination and the return to work supports provided by three programs are very different. The focus of the study is on evidence of programmatic impact on labour-market earnings recovery trajectories over nine years post injury.Methods: The study included claimants sampled from each of the three programs who sustained a permanent impairment from a work injury. Claimants were identified in a Revenue Canada tax file database known as the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD), which is a longitudinal 20% simple random sample of all Canadian tax filers. Each claimant was matched with similar uninjured controls that were also in the LAD, based on sex, age, labour-market earnings amounts and trajectories in the four years prior to injury, and a propensity score. Statistical modeling analysis was undertaken to compare the labour-market earnings trajectories of claimants relative to their matched controls using data on earnings over the nine years post injury. Analyses focused on sub-strata defined by program, sex, age, permanent impairment level, and pre-injury earnings. A key issue of interest was to determine which program of supports resulted in the best labour-market earnings recovery.Results: Five distinct earnings recovery trajectories were identified. Claimants in various demographic and pre-injury earnings sub-strata from the LOE program cohort had a statistically significant lower probability of the lowest earnings recovery trajectory, and higher probability of the second highest trajectory compared to the PD cohort. Results for the LOE program were similar to the FEL program.Conclusions: Injured workers from the LOE program appear to fare better than claimants from the PD program and similarly to those from the FEL program in terms of labour-market earnings recovery over the nine years post injury. Across all programs, older claimants fare more poorly, and women fare worse than men in terms of labour-market earnings recovery.

Can Motherhood Earnings Losses Be Ever Regained? Evidence From Canada

This study examines earnings losses associated with motherhood using longitudinal administrative Canadian data. Contrary to the endogenous motherhood hypothesis, the author found no dips in earnings for women during their prechildbirth years. Although the results show that earnings losses incurred by mothers in the year of childbirth and the year thereafter were substantial, it was found that these earnings losses declined over the postchildbirth years, and for mothers who returned to their prechildbirth employers, the earnings recovery process was rapid, indicating that firm-specific human capital might play an important role.

The economic burden of carpal tunnel syndrome: Long‐term earnings of CTS claimants in Washington State

The long-term earnings losses borne by injured workers, beyond those covered by workers' compensation insurance, are rarely estimated. The post-claim earnings of a cohort of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) claimants are tracked over a period of 6 years and compared to the earnings of claimants with either upper extremity fractures or dermatitis. Quarterly earnings records of 4,443 workers in Washington State who filed claims with the State Fund in 1993 or 1994 for CTS are compared to those of 2,544 with upper-extremity fracture claims and 1,773 with medical-only dermatitis claims. Multivariate regression was used to identify the effect of injury type on earnings from that of other potential predictors. CTS claimants recover to about half of their pre-injury earnings level relative to that of comparison groups after 6 years; they also endured periods on time-loss three times longer than claimants with upper extremity fractures. CTS surgery claimants had better outcomes than those who did not have surgery. Earnings recovery fractions among CTS claimants were better for workers who: (1) were younger; (2) had stable pre-claim employment; (3) lived in the Puget sound area; (4) worked for large businesses; (5) worked in non-construction/transportation industries; or (6) were in the higher pre-injury earnings categories. Cumulative excess loss of earnings of the 4,443 CTS claimants was 197 million dollars to 382 million dollars over 6 years, a loss of 45,000-89,000 dollars per claimant. This underscores the importance of prevention, early diagnosis, and accommodation for return to work.

September snapshot as ‘Silicon semis fall out of bed’

Disappointing earnings guidance from Texas Instruments and a downgrade on Micron Technology sent the SOX index reeling (The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index — XPH: SOXX) off more than 3.5%, albeit still up an incredible 55% year-to-date. The semis’ strong run this year has been predicated upon a second-half earnings recovery, which would then turn into a full-bore cyclical upturn in 2004. But there are two problems at this juncture: 1) the sustainability of the current economic recovery is by no means a foregone conclusion (especially given recent signs of worsening unemployment); and 2) semis’ valuations at this point are in nose-bleed territory, even when viewed through the lens of next year’s earnings estimates. This is a short news story only. Visit www.three-fives.com for the latest advanced semiconductor industry news.

ECONOMIC REVIEW

Disappointing earnings guidance from Texas Instruments and a downgrade on Micron Technology sent the SOX index reeling (The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index — XPH: SOXX) off more than 3.5%, albeit still up an incredible 55% year-to-date. The semis’ strong run this year has been predicated upon a second-half earnings recovery, which would then turn into a full-bore cyclical upturn in 2004. But there are two problems at this juncture: 1) the sustainability of the current economic recovery is by no means a foregone conclusion (especially given recent signs of worsening unemployment); and 2) semis’ valuations at this point are in nose-bleed territory, even when viewed through the lens of next year’s earnings estimates.This is a short news story only. Visit www.three-fives.com for the latest advanced semiconductor industry news.

Chemical Industry Earnings Retain Vigor in First Quarter

The chemical industry earnings recovery more than retained its vigor in the first quarter of 1984. Swelling sales volumes combined with the operating efficiencies that were solidified last year to ...

Hercules expects earnings recovery

Hercules expects earnings recovery

Canadian chemical recovery continues

The earnings recovery that began about a year ago for the Canadian chemical industry continues apace. All of Canada's four largest publicly reporting chemical companies— Canadian Industries Ltd., Celanese Canada, Du Pont Canada, and Union Carbide Canada—could boast of substantially improved sales and greatly improved earnings in both the third quarter and the first nine months of 1979. A year ago, the four companies, even though they were significantly better off than in 1977, still weren't making much money. Profit margins for the third quarter of 1978 averaged a paltry 2.2%. In contrast, the average return on sales in this year's third quarter was 7.5%. Celanese and Du Pont, both big in fibers, are now turning profits on those items as well as on chemicals. Carbide, traditionally the most profitable of the four, was in the doldrums last year. But in the third quarter its earnings more than quintupled (compared to last year's period) and ...

Extent of Japanese chemical decline revealed

The statisticians in Tokyo have made it official: Japan's economy last year shrank almost 2% in real terms compared with the year before. Chemical production fully reflected the contraction. Among the top 50 chemicals produced in Japan, two thirds of them showed either zero growth in tonnage output or actual declines of 1 to 18% compared with 1973. Synthetic rubber, man-made fibers, thermosetting resins —all saw a sharp decline in output. A few lines, mainly chemical fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, and food packaging materials, enjoyed continued high production levels without the problem of mounting inventories. For much of Japan's chemical industry, first-half 1974 showed few signs of recession. Production remained higher than year-earlier levels through April. Despite administrative price controls, applied to key commodity chemicals and polymers in March and not completely removed until August, the fiscal year that ended in September shaped up as one of earnings recovery for almost all major chemical firm...