Male Earnings Research Articles

Forgotten Family: The Influence of Women and Children on the Nexus of Wage Earning and Demographic Change in England, 1260–1860

E. A. Wrigley identified the responsiveness of nuptiality and marital fertility to changes in male wages. Others have theorized the importance of women's decision-making in the timing of marriage, but without much empirical evidence. Combining new long-run series of annual wages for men, for married and single women, and for children with existing demographic data, the influence of women and children's remuneration on household formation is investigated. Women played a key role in the functioning of early modern preventive checks. High wages encouraged single women to delay marriage, reducing marital fertility. This counterbalanced the encouragement of nuptiality stimulated by high male earnings, which helped balance population and economic growth. Juvenile earnings had little influence on family formation, challenging links suggested in accounts of protoindustrialization or proletarianization. Demographic evidence suggests that economic circumstances contributed to the timing of medieval marriage, but poverty more often than prosperity prompted celibacy.

Is There Still a Catholic Earnings Premium for Men? Evidence From Australia

ABSTRACTStudies using large‐scale survey data from Australia, Germany, and the United States have found evidence that religious affiliation influences earnings, with Catholic men benefitting from a wage premium. This paper examines religious affiliation and human capital formation for males aged 25 and 54 using six waves of data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics Australia (HILDA) survey. This study examines the impact of religious affiliation on male earnings through three main approaches: (i) estimating male earnings functions using various religious groupings, (ii) stratifying the analysis by wave to detect potential changes over time, and (iii) evaluating differences in the return to human capital investment among Anglicans, Catholics, and men with other religious affiliations. Contrary to existing studies, we find no evidence of a Catholic wage premium.

Growing diversity in couples' work patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria

Objective: This paper studies changes in couples’ work patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on socio-economic status and children’s age. Background: We contribute to previous research by examining flows between different work patterns using panel data and by providing evidence for a conservative welfare state. Method: Analyses are based on the Austrian Labour Force Surveys 2019-20 and include different-sex couples with children below age 15 (n=930 to 3,053). We applied (multinomial) logistic regression models. Results: The findings reveal a polarization into both more egalitarian (e.g., partners work equal hours) and more traditional (e.g., sole male earner) models during the first lockdown, while the moderate male full-time/female part-time model strongly declined. Among the two more egalitarian models, the "about equal hours" model was mostly fuelled by families with lower socio-economic status, conversely the "role reversal" model (woman more hours) grew predominantly among couples where the female partner was highly educated or had a high earnings share. Retraditionalisation was mainly restricted to women with weaker positions on the labour market: The male sole worker model progressed among families with younger children and when the female earnings share was low. Conclusion: Overall, more couples transited to egalitarian than traditional work patterns. This shift was largely confined to the first lockdown and chiefly driven by men’s rise in short-time work.

Inequality in an Equal Society

AbstractA society in which everybody of a given age has the same income will exhibit substantial income and wealth inequality. We use this idea to empirically quantify inter‐cohort inequality – the share of observed inequality attributable to life‐cycle profiles of income and wealth – using data on male earnings and household wealth. We document that recent increases in income and wealth inequality in the USA and other developed countries are larger than observed rates would suggest due to favourable demographics. That is, while demographic change played a substantial role in the dynamics of income and wealth inequality until 1990, the stark increase in inequality in the USA and elsewhere ever since is despite not because of demographic change. Moreover, we show that there is important variation across countries in the level and trends in the extent of inequality that is due to lifecycle effects, and that taking this into account gives a more nuanced view of cross‐country comparisons.

Accelerating Financial Inclusion of the Urban Poor: Role of Innovative e-Payment Systems and JAM Trinity in Alleviating Poverty in India

Financial exclusion of low-income groups in urban areas remains a key policy challenge in India. This study examines the potential of e-payment systems and the Jan Dhan Aadhaar Mobile (JAM) trinity in enhancing access of the urban poor to social welfare schemes, thereby alleviating poverty. A survey of 585 economically weaker section households across 12 cities in Punjab state was conducted. The results indicate greater awareness of mobile and UPI payments compared to cards, but adoption gaps exist across demographic segments. Younger educated male earners perceive individual benefits like convenience and government benefits like transparency in e-payments. Integrating innovative e-payments in welfare programs increases the reliability of transactions, leading to positive multiplier effects on income, assets and skills and reducing vulnerabilities for the urban poor. The findings highlight the need for targeted initiatives by policymakers and Fintech firms to digitize payments and customized implementation measures to promote adoption among low-income citizen groups. This includes digital literacy programs, trust-building, co-creating tailored products and integrating e-payment mechanisms into social schemes. Thus, leveraging Fintech innovations through strategic policies and cross-sector partnerships can significantly advance financial inclusion to create a more equitable digital economy where the urban poor are not left behind.

A guide to estimating the canonical income process in quasidifferences

AbstractThe canonical income process, including autoregressive, transitory, and fixed effect components, is routinely used in macro and labor economics. We provide a guide for its estimation using quasidifferences, cataloging biases in the estimated parameters for various $N$ , $T$ , initial conditions, and weighting schemes. Using Danish administrative data on male earnings, estimation in quasidifferences yields divergent estimates of the autoregressive parameter for different weighting schemes, which conforms to our simulation results when the variance of transitory shocks is higher than that of persistent shocks, true persistence is high, and the persistent component’s variance in the first sample year is nonzero. We further apply quasidifferences to the data from a calibrated lifecycle model and find significant biases in the persistence of shocks and their insurance. Estimation of the income process using quasidifferences is reliable only when the variance of persistent shocks is higher than that of transitory shocks and the moments are equally weighted.

Mechanisms and pathways linking kindergarten behavior problems with mid-life employment earnings for males from low-income neighborhoods.

Childhood behavior problems are associated with reduced labor market participation and lower earnings in adulthood, but little is known about the pathways and mechanisms that explain these associations. Drawing on a 33-year prospective birth cohort of White males from low-income backgrounds (n = 1040), we conducted a path analysis linking participants' teacher-rated behavior problems at age 6 years-that is, inattention, hyperactivity, aggression-opposition, and low prosociality-to employment earnings at age 35-39 years obtained from tax records. We examined three psychosocial mediators at age 11-12 years (academic, behavioral, social) and two mediators at age 25 years (non-high school graduation, criminal convictions). Our findings support the notion that multiple psychosocial pathways-especially low education attainment-link kindergarten behavior problems to lower employment earnings decades later.

Effects of prescription opioids on employment, earnings, marriage, disability and mortality: Evidence from state opioid control policies

This article presents estimates of the effects of state prescription opioid control policies on prescription opioid sales, mortality and socioeconomic outcomes of adults. Results indicate that state implementation of a “modern” Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP) is associated with decreases in opioid sales of between 5% and 20% and that pill mill laws are associated with a decrease in opioid sales of between 15% and 40%. While these policies were associated with reductions in prescription opioid sales they were not significantly associated with drug- and opioid-related mortality, although estimates consistently indicated that these policies reduced mortality. In the case of socioeconomic outcomes, we found consistent evidence that the adoption of a “modern” PDMP was associated with small, but statistically significant reductions in employment of 1% to 2%; small reductions in earnings that were not statistically significant for full sample, but were significant and larger for a low-educated sample; and similarly small, marginally significant increases in receipt of public assistance, particularly for women; and a significant, but small (1%) decline in the probability of being married among females. In contrast, pill mill laws were associated with marginally significant increases in employment of 1% to 2%, but only among those ages 18 to 25; small, but insignificant increases in earnings of males of between 2% to 4%; and a significant, but small (1%) decline in the probability of being married.

Understanding income volatility in urban China

Higher income volatility is associated with a higher risk and a reduction in well-being. Income volatility is widely studied in many advanced economies, yet little is known about income volatility in China. In this paper we document trends in earnings volatility and household income volatility in urban China and examine what are the driving forces. Using the China Urban Household Survey, we find that male earnings volatility increased by 89% between 1992 and 2009. Earnings volatility is higher for older, less educated, and those who work in private service sector and non-SOEs. Decomposition analysis suggests that couple’s earnings shocks are positively correlated, while transfer income and other income help smooth out head earnings shocks. In addition, transfer income and other non-transfer income plays a larger role in smoothing out head earnings shocks for poorer households.

Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s

Abstract We assess the impact of a rapid rise in Japanese import competition on the growth in racial earnings and employment gaps during the 1970s and 80s. Using commuting zone level variation in exposure, we find Japanese competition led to a decrease in manufacturing employment and labour force participation for blacks. This was driven by a shift in demand for skill in manufacturing. The difference in effects between the 10th percentile most and least exposed commuting zone was equivalent to 36–46% of the relative rise in black non-labour force participation, and 78–96% of the relative decline in black median male earnings.

New insights into trends and reasons for the gender pay gap in Urban China, 1988-2013

ABSTRACT This study documents long-run trends of the gender pay gap (GPG) in urban China 1988–2013 using the Chinese Household Income Project microdata. We find a fluctuating and enlarging GPG over time. The average ratio of female to male earnings fell from 85.2% to 79.9%. Analysis by earnings percentiles shows that the GPG is larger at the bottom of the earnings distribution than it is at the top. We utilize OLS regressions, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, and Juhn-Murphy-Pierce decomposition to make a comprehensive analysis of the contributing factors to the GPG. By 2013, conventional human capital variables explained little of the GPG. Gender differences in location (ownership, occupation, and industry) were important, although the magnitude of the effect of three factors has changed over time. Gender differences in job characteristics (contract type and firm size) are also important in explaining the GPG. The increases in the unexplained gap contributed to the divergence of the gender gap. Analysis by sub-periods shows that there were distinctive patterns behind the changes of the GPG. The main contributors to the diverging trend of the GPG were changes in the wage structure to women and women’s disadvantages in unobserved skills.

Work-limiting disabilities and earnings volatility

This paper examines how the onset of a work-limiting disability influences male earnings volatility as measured by the variance of transitory earnings. Using data from the 1970 to 2013 survey waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and a semi-parametric error components model, we decompose annual earnings into its permanent and transitory components. Results show that the variance of transitory earnings of disabled and non-disabled men is similar before onset of a work-limiting health condition. Upon onset, earnings volatility increases significantly, and does not return to pre-onset levels until at least five years after the last reported disability. Additional results show that earnings volatility has increased since 1970 for both disabled and non-disabled men. However, the trend in volatility is steeper for those who suffer from a disability. Despite this steeper trend, disability's contribution to the total variance of earnings has remained constant over time at roughly 15%.

The short run effects of childbirth on parents’ earnings in the Baltics

ABSTRACT Having a child can have a heavy toll on parents' earnings, especially in the first years after childbirth, with mothers often being more affected than fathers. This is particularly true in the three Baltic states, with relatively generous parental leave benefits compared to the EU and norms encouraging mothers to care for children. I carry out an event study to estimate the effect of having a child on the earnings of both genders and find that the earnings of females reduce by half in the first calendar year after childbirth and by 20% to 33% in the second, while male earnings do not change in either period. This results in a widening earnings gap in the Baltics, more so than in several comparison countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway), in the first two years after the birth of the first child.

Long Term Earnings Inequality, Earnings Instability and Temporary Employment in Spain: 1993–2000

This paper provides a longitudinal perspective on changes in Spanish male earnings inequality for the period 1993-2000, by decomposing the earnings covariance structure into its permanent and transitory parts. According to the Spanish sample of the European Community Household Panel, cross-sectional earnings inequality of male full-time employees falls over the second half of the Nineties. The longitudinal analysis shows that such decline was determined by a decrease in earnings instability and an increase of the permanent earnings component. Given the marked decline in temporary employment over the sample period, we also examine the effect of the type of contract on earnings variance components, and we find that workers with fixed-term contract have on average more instability than workers with permanent contract. This evidence suggests that the decline in temporary employment is responsible for the decreasing earnings instability.

Male Earnings Volatility in LEHD Before, During, and After the Great Recession

This article is part of a coordinated collection of papers on prime-age male earnings volatility. Each paper produces a similar set of statistics for the same reference population using a different primary data source. Our primary data source is the Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure files. Using LEHD data from 1998 to 2016, we create a well-defined population frame to facilitate accurate estimation of temporal changes comparable to designed longitudinal samples of people. We show that earnings volatility, excluding increases during recessions, has declined over the analysis period, a finding robust to various sensitivity analyses.

Reconciling Trends in Male Earnings Volatility: Evidence from the SIPP Survey and Administrative Data

As part of a set of papers using the same methods and sample selection criteria to estimate trends in male earnings volatility across survey and administrative datasets, we conduct a new investigation of male earnings volatility using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) survey and SIPP-linked administrative earnings data (SIPP GSF). We find that the level of volatility is higher in the administrative earnings histories in the SIPP GSF than in the SIPP survey but that the trends are similar. Between 1984 and 2012, volatility in the SIPP survey declines slightly while volatility in the SIPP GSF increases slightly. Including imputations due to unit nonresponse in the SIPP survey data increases both the level and upward trend in volatility and poses a challenge for estimating a consistent series in the SIPP survey data. Because the density of low earnings differs considerably across datasets, and volatility may vary across the earnings distribution, we also estimate trends in volatility where we hold the earnings distribution fixed across the two data sources. Differences in the underlying earnings distribution explain much of the difference in the level of and trends in volatility between the SIPP survey and SIPP GSF.

Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) has been the workhorse dataset used to estimate trends in U.S. earnings volatility at the individual level. We provide updated estimates for male earnings volatility using additional years of data. The analysis confirms prior work showing upward trends in the 1970s and 1980s, with a near doubling of the level of volatility over that period. The results also confirm prior work showing a resumption of an upward trend starting in the 2000s, but the new years of data available show volatility to be falling in recent years. By 2018, volatility had grown by a modest amount relative to the 1990s, with a growth rate only one-fifth the magnitude of that in the 1970s and 1980s. We show that neither attrition or item nonresponse bias, nor other issues with the PSID, affect these conclusions.

Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data

There is a large literature on earnings and income volatility in labor economics, household finance, and macroeconomics. One strand of that literature has studied whether individual earnings volatility has risen or fallen in the U.S. over the last several decades. There are strong disagreements in the empirical literature on this important question, with some studies showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some showing no trends. Some studies have suggested that the differences are the result of using flawed survey data instead of more accurate administrative data. This paper summarizes the results of a project attempting to reconcile these findings with four different data sets and six different data series–three survey and three administrative data series, including two which match survey respondent data to their administrative data. Using common specifications, measures of volatility, and other treatments of the data, four of the six data series show a lack of any significant long-term trend in male earnings volatility over the last 20-to-30+ years when differences across the data sets are properly accounted for. A fifth data series (the PSID) shows a positive net trend but small in magnitude. A sixth, administrative, data set, available only since 1998, shows no net trend 1998-2011 and only a small decline thereafter. Many of the remaining differences across data series can be explained by differences in their cross-sectional distribution of earnings, particularly differences in the size of the lower tail. We conclude that the data sets we have analyzed, which include many of the most important available, show little evidence of any significant trend in male earnings volatility since the mid-1980s.

Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data

Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data

Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data

Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data