Early Time Period Research Articles

Co-Seismic and Post-Seismic Slip Properties Associated with the 2024 M 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan Earthquake Determined by GNSS Observations

Based on GNSS observations, the co-seismic and post-seismic slip of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake and the spatio-temporal pattern of afterslip are investigated in this paper. The co-seismic slip is mainly distributed in the depth range of 2 to 15 km with the maximum value of 5.94 m. Compared with the co-seismic rupture pattern, a shallow afterslip can be observed after the earthquake, and the afterslip patch is formed northeast of the epicenter. The maximum value of afterslip during the post-seismic 180 days is 1.13 m, which is situated at the longitude of 137.53°, latitude of 37.75°, and epth of 5.43 km. The spatio-temporal evolution of afterslip indicates that the fault activity has continued throughout the post-seismic 180 days, and the coverage and magnitude of afterslip have gradually increased. As time goes on, the fault activity tends to weaken, as evidenced by a decrease in slip rate. The daily images of afterslip demonstrate that the fault activity is particularly strong in the early time period following the earthquake. The maximum value of afterslip in the first week accounts for about 18% of that in the post-seismic 180 days, and the maximum slip rate reaches 0.043 m/day. In addition, the Coulomb stress analysis indicates that afterslip and most aftershocks appear in the positive Coulomb stress region, suggesting that co-seismic Coulomb stress changes may be the driving mechanism of afterslip and aftershocks.

Early therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate and its association with acute kidney injury: A retrospective cohort study.

High-dose methotrexate (HDMTX) use can be limited by the development of acute kidney injury (AKI). Early AKI detection is paramount to prevent further renal injury and irreversible toxicities. This study sought to determine whether early elimination patterns of MTX would be useful as a biomarker of AKI in HDMTX treatment. This retrospective cohort study included two sites that collected ≥2 MTX levels within 16 h from completion of MTX infusion. Early levels were tagged and MTX elimination half-life (t½) were calculated from combinations of two of three different early time periods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were synthesized for each elimination t½ (biomarker) with respect to AKI and delayed methotrexate elimination (DME); the biomarker with the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) was tested in a multiple variable logistic regression model. Data from 169 patients who received a total of 556 courses of HDMTX were analyzed. ROC analysis revealed MTX elimination t½ calculated from the second and third time periods had the highest AUC for AKI at 0.62 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.56-0.69) and DME at 0.86 (IQR 0.73-1.00). After adjusting for age, sex, dose (mg/m2), infusion duration, HDMTX course, and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, it remained significant for AKI with an OR of 1.29 and 95% confidence interval of 1.03-1.65. Early MTX elimination t½ measured within 16 h of infusion completion was significantly associated with the development of AKI and serves as an early clearance biomarker that may identify patients who benefit from increased hydration, augmented leucovorin rescue, and glucarpidase administration.

Factors Influencing Neuromuscular Blockade Reversal Choice in the United States Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Retrospective Longitudinal Analysis.

Neuromuscular blockade (NMB) agents are a critical component of balanced anesthesia. NMB reversal methods can include spontaneous reversal, sugammadex, or neostigmine and the choice of reversal strategy can depend on various factors. Unanticipated changes to clinical practice emerged due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a better understanding of how NMB reversal trends were affected by the pandemic may help provide insight into how providers view the tradeoffs in the choice of NMB reversal agents. We aim to analyze NMB reversal agent use patterns for US adult inpatient surgeries before and after the COVID-19 outbreak to determine whether pandemic-related practice changes affected use trends. A retrospective longitudinal analysis of a large all-payer national electronic US health care database (PINC AI Healthcare Database) was conducted to identify the use patterns of NMB reversal during early, middle, and late COVID-19 (EC, MC, and LC, respectively) time periods. Factors associated with NMB reversal choices in inpatient surgeries were assessed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic reached the United States. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the impact of the pandemic on NMB reversal, accounting for patient, clinical, procedural, and site characteristics. A counterfactual framework was used to understand if patient characteristics affected how COVID-19-era patients would have been treated before the pandemic. More than 3.2 million inpatients experiencing over 3.6 million surgical procedures across 931 sites that met all inclusion criteria were identified between March 1, 2017, and December 31, 2021. NMB reversal trends showed a steady increase in reversal with sugammadex over time, with the trend from January 2018 onwards being linear with time (R2>0.99). Multivariate analysis showed that the post-COVID-19 time periods had a small but statistically significant effect on the trend, as measured by the interaction terms of the COVID-19 time periods and the time trend in NMB reversal. A slight increase in the likelihood of sugammadex reversal was observed during EC relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend (odds ratio [OR] 1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.014; P=.003), followed by negation of that increase during MC (OR 0.992, 95% CI 0.987-0.997; P<.001), and no significant interaction identified during LC (OR 1.001, 95% CI 0.996-1.005; P=.81). Conversely, active reversal (using either sugammadex or neostigmine) did not show a significant association relative to spontaneous reversal, or a change in trend, during EC or MC (P>.05), though a slight decrease in the active reversal trend was observed during LC (OR 0.987, 95% CI 0.983-0.992; P<.001). We observed a steady increase in NMB active reversal overall, and specifically with sugammadex compared to neostigmine, during periods before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Small, transitory alterations in the NMB reversal trends were observed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, though these alterations were independent of the underlying NMB reversal time trends.

Alpha and theta oscillations on a visual strategic processing task in age-related hearing loss.

Emerging evidence suggests changes in several cognitive control processes in individuals with age-related hearing loss (ARHL). However, value-directed strategic processing, which involves selectively processing salient information based on high value, has been relatively unexplored in ARHL. Our previous work has shown behavioral changes in strategic processing in individuals with ARHL. The current study examined event-related alpha and theta oscillations linked to a visual, value-directed strategic processing task in 19 individuals with mild untreated ARHL and 17 normal hearing controls of comparable age and education. Five unique word lists were presented where words were assigned high- or low-value based on the letter case, and electroencephalography (EEG) data was recorded during task performance. The main effect of the group was observed in early time periods. Specifically, greater theta synchronization was seen in the ARHL group relative to the control group. Interaction between group and value was observed at later time points, with greater theta synchronization for high- versus low-value information in those with ARHL. Our findings provide evidence for oscillatory changes tied to a visual task of value-directed strategic processing in individuals with mild untreated ARHL. This points towards modality-independent neurophysiological changes in cognitive control in individuals with mild degrees of ARHL and adds to the rapidly growing literature on the cognitive consequences of ARHL.

Is 90 the new 80? Temporal trends in nonagenarians undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions

BackgroundCoronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death in the elderly population. Data regarding percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) in nonagenarians are scarce, and differences in long term outcomes between generations remain unclear. We aimed to study the pattern and temporal trends of nonagenarians treated with PCI. Materials and Methods: A total of 14,695 patients underwent PCI between 2009-2020. We identified 2,034 (13.8%) octogenarians (age 80-89), and 222 (1.5%) nonagenarians (age 90-99). Endpoints included mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 1 year. Materials and MethodsA total of 14,695 patients underwent PCI between 2009-2020. We identified 2,034 (13.8%) octogenarians (age 80-89), and 222 (1.5%) nonagenarians (age 90-99). Endpoints included mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 1 year. ResultsThe number of nonagenarians undergoing PCI has increased substantially during the study time period, from 89 patients in the earlier time period (2009-2014) to 133 patients in the later time period (2015-2020). At 1-year, nonagenarians had significantly higher rates of both death (24.3% vs. 14.9%, p<0.01), and MACE (30.6% vs. 22.0%, p<0.01), as compared to octogenarians. The cumulative survival rate was higher among octogenarians both in the early and late time period (p<0.01 and p=0.039, respectively). A significant reduction in nonagenarian MACE rates were observed during the study time period, resulting in a non-significant difference in MACE rates in the later time period between both groups. ConclusionThe number of nonagenarians who undergo PCI is on the rise. While their clinical outcomes are inferior as compared to younger age groups, improvement was noted in the late time period.

Sudden Hearing Loss before, during, and after the Pandemic: Investigating COVID-19 Illness and Vaccine-Related Symptoms.

Accumulating reports suggest an increase in sudden sensorineural hearing loss during the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination periods. However, clear evidence is lacking. The goal of this study was to determine if sudden sensorineural hearing loss is associated with COVID-19 illness or its vaccine. Retrospective chart review of 50 randomly selected patients from three, 6-month time periods: "pre-pandemic," "early pandemic," and "late pandemic." Group comparisons were performed for demographics, comorbid conditions, audiologic history, audiometric data, speech reception thresholds, and word recognition. One hundred 50 patients were included in this study. A mean difference was observed in that the relative percentage of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) cases increased over time, corresponding to a relative decrease in conductive hearing loss cases. However, this change was not explained by proportional changes in sudden SNHL. Patients in the early pandemic time period were more likely to report tinnitus. Otherwise, the patient groups did not differ on demographic variables, hearing health history, hearing loss presentation, pure tone averages, speech reception thresholds, or word recognition performance. Proportion of patients with sudden sensorineural hearing loss did not change over time from the pre-pandemic period to the early or late pandemic phases. Despite a randomized sample, these findings do not support the hypothesis that COVID-19 illness or vaccine is associated with sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

Single institution analysis of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) outcomes based on year of diagnosis: A 17 year review.

e14023 Background: GBM is the most common brain tumour in adults. The latest WHO classification excludes IDH mutated tumours, acknowledging their favourable prognosis. MGMT methylation is a prognostic biomarker and predicts level of benefit from Temozolomide. The standard of care management includes maximal surgical resection followed by radiotherapy with concurrent and adjuvant Temozolomide. This has remained largely unchanged for nearly 20 years. We analysed 17 years of newly diagnosed GBM cases attending Medical Oncology at our institution to assess outcome advancements. Methods: Demographic information, clinicopathological characteristics, surgery, radiotherapy and systemic anti-cancer treatment data were collected from the charts of patients diagnosed with GBM and seen by the Medical Oncology department at Cork University Hospital between 2005-2021. The study population was divided into 2 time periods: 2005-2016 and 2017-2021. Overall survival was recorded. Baseline characteristics was compared across time periods using the Chi-Square test. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to assess impact of different variables on overall survival. Results: The analysis comprised 306 patients, with 142 and 164 diagnosed between 2005-2016 and 2017-2021 respectively. Median age was 62 years (range 17-86) and patients were predominantly male (65%). Patients in the earlier time period were more likely to have ECOG performance status 0-1 (80% vs 65% p = 0.011) and were more likely to commence treatment on Stupp protocol (99% vs 80% p = &lt;0.001). IDH and MGMT testing were less prevalent in the earlier time period. Median overall survival (mOS) for the entire cohort was 11.6 months. Univariate analysis revealed correlations between overall survival and time period of diagnosis, age &gt;65, MGMT status, ECOG performance status, steroid use, surgery, re-resection, and completion of adjuvant chemoradiation protocols. The mOS was 12.3 months in the earlier time period and 10.4 months in the later time period (HR = 1.35 p = 0.012). Time period of diagnosis remained an independent prognostic factor for poor outcome on multivariate analysis. Notably, mOS during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) was 10.6 months, showing no difference from other time periods. Conclusions: Despite advances in our knowledge regarding the molecular biology of GBM, prognosis remains poor. Our institution’s 17 year survival data indicates no improvement over time emphasising the urgent need for new treatment strategies. Notably, the more recent time period had an increased number of frailer patients who were too unwell to commence any adjuvant treatment, possibly indicating a lower referral threshold which may have negatively impacted mOS in that cohort. Additionally, the absence of IDH status assessment in the earlier era means some IDH mutant patients were likely included, thereby inflating the mOS for that cohort.

Trends in predicted age at maturity of Sablefish from 22 years of surveys

AbstractObjectiveOur aim was to predict the maturity (will spawn or immature) of Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria in Alaska for past years during a period when macroscopic data are not of utility and histological observations are not available.MethodsIn a previous study, female maturity was determined using histology and a model was developed that predicted maturity using maternal length, age, and relative condition. We used this published model to predict the maturity of individual Sablefish collected annually in the same area on the same dates. The maturity predictions were used to create predicted time series of maturity at age for surveys conducted over 22 years.ResultA k‐means cluster analysis of annual maturity parameters revealed that data should be split into two clusters. These groups were chronologically sequential (1998–2010 and 2011–2019), with two exceptions: 2015 and 2017 were assigned to the early time period. We created two chronological time blocks by incorporating the two outlier years into the late period post hoc, as we are not aware of mechanisms that may have caused these two outliers, and it is important for stock assessment to capture the signal and not the noise. Sablefish in the later period were predicted to mature later than fish in the earlier period; age at 50% maturity was 5.5 years in the early period and 6.8 years in the later period, and the slope was shallower in the later period.ConclusionThere are often gaps in reliable maturity data. This case study illustrates that limited histological data sets can be used to predict maturity in years without ovary samples and illustrates how these data can be grouped based on similarities and chronology for use in stock assessment. We recommend more histological studies in the future to test assumptions of the predictive model, and we recommend evaluations of other factors, such as environmental time series, that may be drivers of annual maturity.

An Analysis on the Effect of Income Changes in the Resection of Early-Stage Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

The impact of socioeconomic inequalities on cancer care and outcomes has been well recognized and the underlying causes are likely multifactorial. Income is regarded as a cornerstone of socioeconomic status and has been assumed to correlate with access to care. We therefore sought to investigate whether income and changes in income would affect the rate of patients undergoing surgical resection for early-stage pancreatic cancer. Inflation-adjusted income data were obtained from the United States Census Bureau from 2010 to 2019. The cancer data were obtained from the SEER database. Counties present in both data sets were included in the analysis. Patients with stage I or II pancreatic cancer who underwent formal resection were deemed to have undergone appropriate surgical management. Patients were grouped into an early (2010-2014) and late (2015-2019) time period. The final analysis included 23968 patients from 173 counties across 11 states. The resection rate was 45.1% for the entire study and rose from 42.8% to 47.4% from the early to late time periods (P < .001). The median change in income between the two time periods was an increase by $2387. The rate of resection was not dependent on income class or income change in our study population. Our surgical care of pancreatic cancer is improving with more patients undergoing resection. In addition, there are now fewer disparities between patients of lower-income and higher-income groups with respect to receiving surgical intervention. This implies that our access to care has improved over the past decade. This is an encouraging finding with regards to reducing health care disparities.

The use of bones as tools in Late Lower Paleolithic of Central Italy

The Latium area in Italy has yielded rich evidence of Lower Paleolithic sites with both faunal remains, artefacts, and human fossil remains, such as the Ceprano human skull. Many are the sites where lithic industry has been found in association with bone industry. Medium and large animals were a key resource because they provided an enormous amount of meat and fat. However, they were extensively exploited for their bones, rich in marrow, and as raw material for tool production. Bone tools are so far few documented for early period of time and especially for the Middle Pleistocene in Western Europe. We report here evidence of bone tools and their efficiency of use for hominin groups living in the Frosinone-Ceprano basin during the MIS 11/10, a key period which records behavioral innovations and onset of the Neanderthal behaviors. In three sites, Isoletta, Colle Avarone and Selvotta, several bone tools and bone flakes have been discovered (MIS 11/10). They were associated to stone artefacts part of the hominins tool-kit. Technological and use-wear analyses conducted on these bone industries, dated between 410 and 430 ka, yield relevant results to understand the effectiveness of the bones tools found associated with lithic series, including handaxes.

Combination of co-amorphization with SNEDDS outperforms Ofev® in the oral absorption of nintedanib

Nintedanib (NTD), approved for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and advanced non-small cell lung cancer, is one of brick dusts with high melting point. Although NTD has been marketed as Ofev®, a soft capsule of NTD ethanesulfonate (NTD-ESA) suspended in oil components, the oral bioavailability is quite low and highly variable. To improve the oral absorption behavior of NTD, we prepared SNEDDS formulation containing NTD-(+)-10-camphorsulfonic acid (CSA) complex with 2% HPMCP-50. CSA disrupted the high crystallinity of NTD-ESA and the formed complex, NTD-CSA, was found to be amorphous by DSC and XRPD. NTD-CSA provided solubilities in various vehicles much higher than NTD-ESA. Under the gastric luminal condition, NTD-CSA SNEDDS with or without 2% HPMCP-50 and NTD-CSA powder indicated very good dissolution of NTD from early time periods, while NTD was gradually dissolved until around 60 min from NTD-ESA and Ofev®. Under the small intestinal luminal condition, in contrast, both NTD-CSA SNEDDS formulations almost completely dissolved NTD throughout the experiments, while Ofev®, NTD-CSA, and NTD-ESA exhibited a very poor dissolution of NTD. In the in vivo absorption study, NTD-CSA SNEDDS with 2% HPMCP-50 significantly improved NTD absorption and reduced the inter-individual variation in oral absorption behavior compared with Ofev®.

A mathematical mould model for transient infiltration and lubrication behaviour of slag in a steel continuous casting process

The transient infiltration and lubrication behaviour of slag during continuous casting of steel is important for billet quality. A two-dimensional coupled mathematical mould model was developed to investigate these phenomena. The accuracy of the model was verified by comparing the calculated slag consumption with measurements by the plant. The results show that the liquid slag is consumed from the middle and late period of positive strip time to the next early period of positive strip time, including the entire negative strip time. The maximum downward infiltration velocity and positive pressure in the slag channel is at the middle of the negative strip time. Increasing the positive pressure of the slag channel is conducive to lubrication. The shear stresses acting on the shell surface and at the mould side were determined by the lubrication slag consumption and total slag consumption, respectively, and gradually decreased with increasing slag consumption. The negative strip time was lengthened to increase the slag consumption and prolong the time near the maximum downward shear stress, so as to be conducive to the demould.

Women Approach Cute Objects but Avoid Cute Adult Female Faces: Verification of Correlation between Body Sway and Cuteness Rating

Perceived cuteness motivates people to approach cute objects, but no evidence exists of unconscious approach behavior toward objects. Given the unconscious responses associated with cuteness perception, an unconscious drive to physically approach cute objects is likely to occur. However, approach behavior may or may not occur depending on whether or not the perceived cute object is an adult, a baby, or a non-human. In this study, we recruited 24 participants and conducted a correlation study between cuteness ratings and body sway to examine whether or not the approach response is dependent on perceived cuteness. Results showed that the approach or avoidance response to cute objects was observed only in women. For babies, the approach response occurred regardless of the degree of cuteness, but for adult female faces, the cuter the face, the more the avoidance response occurred. For non-human images, the cuter the image, the more the approach response occurred only in early period of observation time. These results suggest that cuteness perception controls physical distance differently depending on the target of evaluation.

Geochemistry of Liquid Hydrocarbons and Natural Gases Combined with 1D Basin Modeling of the Oligocene Shale Source Rock System in the Offshore Nile Delta, Egypt.

The current study aims to integrate the geochemical characteristics of the Oligocene shale source rock system, oil, condensate, and natural gas samples in the Oligocene sandstone reservoirs from three exploration wells located in the offshore Nile Delta, East Mediterranean Sea, using organic geochemistry and a 1D basin modeling scheme. The Tineh shales exhibit total organic carbon values ranging between 0.90 and 1.89 wt %, along with hydrogen index values in the range of 54-240 mg hydrocarbon/g rock. The geochemical characterization suggests that the shale intervals of the Oligocene Tineh Formation contain type II-III and type III kerogens and, thereby, could be regarded as promising oil- and gas-prone source rocks with high contributions of gas generation potential. The study also reconstructs the 1D thermal and burial history models, showing that the Oligocene Tineh source rock system is in the main oil and wet gas generation phases from the late Miocene to the present time. The simulated basin models reveal the transformation (TR) of 10-50% kerogen to oil during the late Miocene-early Pliocene period and that the Oligocene Tineh source rock system has larger oil generation and expulsion competency, with a TR value of up to 65% during the early Pliocene-Pleistocene time period. The thermogenic gas was also formed during this time and continued to the present day. This study also investigated the presence of oil and condensate in the Oligocene sandstone reservoir samples and revealed that they were generated from mature source rock, ranging from moderately to highly mature stages. This source rock unit was deposited in fluvial to fluvial-deltaic environments under oxic mixed organic conditions and accumulated during the Tertiary time, as evidenced by the presence of the oleanane biomarker dating indicator. The molecular and isotope compositions of natural gases revealed that most of the natural gases in the Oligocene sandstone reservoir are mainly thermogenic methane gases that were generated from mainly mixed organic matter. The thermogenic methane gases were formed mainly from secondary cracking of oil and gas, with small contributions of primary kerogen cracking. The properties of natural gases together with oil and condensate in the Oligocene reservoir rocks suggest that most of the thermogenic methane gases and associated liquid hydrocarbons are derived primarily from the Oligocene shale source rock system and formed by primary kerogen cracking and secondary oil and oil/gas cracking in different thermal maturity stages. Therefore, the Oligocene Tineh Formation can be regarded as self-source generation and self-reservoir rock; hence, an intensive oil exploration and production program can be recommended whenever the Tineh source rock system is is well developed and deeply buried.

Evaluating the Effects of Kidney Preservation at 10 °C with Hemopure and Sodium Thiosulfate in a Rat Model of Syngeneic Orthotopic Kidney Transplantation.

Kidney transplantation is preferred for end-stage renal disease. The current gold standard for kidney preservation is static cold storage (SCS) at 4 °C. However, SCS contributes to renal graft damage through ischemia-reperfusion injury (IRI). We previously reported renal graft protection after SCS with a hydrogen sulfide donor, sodium thiosulfate (STS), at 4 °C. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether SCS at 10 °C with STS and Hemopure (blood substitute), will provide similar protection. Using in vitro model of IRI, we subjected rat renal proximal tubular epithelial cells to hypoxia-reoxygenation for 24 h at 10 °C with or without STS and measured cell viability. In vivo, we preserved 36 donor kidneys of Lewis rats for 24 h in a preservation solution at 10 °C supplemented with STS, Hemopure, or both followed by transplantation. Tissue damage and recipient graft function parameters, including serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, urine osmolality, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR), were evaluated. STS-treated proximal tubular epithelial cells exhibited enhanced viability at 10 °C compared with untreated control cells (p < 0.05). Also, STS and Hemopure improved renal graft function compared with control grafts (p < 0.05) in the early time period after the transplant, but long-term function did not reach significance. Overall, renal graft preservation at 10 °C with STS and Hemopure supplementation has the potential to enhance graft function and reduce kidney damage, suggesting a novel approach to reducing IRI and post-transplant complications.

Pneumococcal population genomics changes during the early time period of conjugate vaccine uptake in southern India.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of invasive disease of young children in low- and middle-income countries. In southern India, pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that can prevent invasive pneumococcal disease began to be used more frequently after 2015. To characterize pneumococcal evolution during the early time period of PCV uptake in southern India, genomes were sequenced and selected characteristics were determined for 402 invasive isolates collected from children <5 years of age during routine surveillance from 1991 to 2020. Overall, the prevalence and diversity of vaccine type (VT) and non-vaccine type (NVT) isolates did not significantly change post-uptake of PCV. Individually, serotype 1 and global pneumococcal sequence cluster (GPSC or strain lineage) 2 significantly decreased, whereas serotypes 6B, 9V and 19A and GPSCs 1, 6, 10 and 23 significantly increased in proportion post-uptake of PCV. Resistance determinants to penicillin, erythromycin, co-trimoxazole, fluoroquinolones and tetracycline, and multidrug resistance significantly increased in proportion post-uptake of PCV and especially among VT isolates. Co-trimoxazole resistance determinants were common pre- and post-uptake of PCV (85 and 93 %, respectively) and experienced the highest rates of recombination in the genome. Accessory gene frequencies were seen to be changing by small amounts across the frequency spectrum specifically among VT isolates, with the largest changes linked to antimicrobial resistance determinants. In summary, these results indicate that as of 2020 this pneumococcal population was not yet approaching a PCV-induced equilibrium and they highlight changes related to antimicrobial resistance. Augmenting PCV coverage and prudent use of antimicrobials are needed to counter invasive pneumococcal disease in this region.

Modeling missing pedigree with metafounders and validating single-step genomic predictions in a small dairy cattle population with a great influence of foreign genetics

Genetic improvement in small countries rely heavily on foreign genetics. In an importing country such as Uruguay, consideration of unknown parent groups (UPG) for foreign sires is essential. However, the use of UPG in genomic model evaluations may lead to bias in genomic estimated breeding values. The objective of this study was to study different models including UPG or Metafounders (MF) in the Uruguayan Holstein evaluation and to analyze bias, dispersion, and accuracy of (G)EBV predictions in BLUP and ssGBLUP. Gamma matrix (Γ) was estimated either by using base allele population frequencies obtained by bounded linear regression (MFbounded), or by using 2 values to design Γ, i.e., a single value for the diagonal and a different value for the off-diagonal (MFrobust). Both Γ estimators performed well in terms of GEBV predictions, but MFbounded was the best option. There is, however, some bias whose origin was not completely understood. UPG or MF seem to model correctly genetic progress for unknown parents except for the very first groups (earlier time period). As for validation bulls, bias was observed across all models, whereas for validation cows it was only observed with UPG in BLUP. Overdispersion was found in all models, but it was mostly detected in validation bulls. Ratio of accuracies indicated that ssGBLUP gave better predictions than BLUP.

Application of elastic net regression for modeling COVID-19 sociodemographic risk factors.

COVID-19 has been at the forefront of global concern since its emergence in December of 2019. Determining the social factors that drive case incidence is paramount to mitigating disease spread. We gathered data from the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) along with Democratic voting percentage to attempt to understand which county-level sociodemographic metrics had a significant correlation with case rate for COVID-19. We used elastic net regression due to issues with variable collinearity and model overfitting. Our modelling framework included using the ten Health and Human Services regions as submodels for the two time periods 22 March 2020 to 15 June 2021 (prior to the Delta time period) and 15 June 2021 to 1 November 2021 (the Delta time period). Statistically, elastic net improved prediction when compared to multiple regression, as almost every HHS model consistently had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and satisfactory R2 coefficients. These analyses show that the percentage of minorities, disabled individuals, individuals living in group quarters, and individuals who voted Democratic correlated significantly with COVID-19 attack rate as determined by Variable Importance Plots (VIPs). The percentage of minorities per county correlated positively with cases in the earlier time period and negatively in the later time period, which complements previous research. In contrast, higher percentages of disabled individuals per county correlated negatively in the earlier time period. Counties with an above average percentage of group quarters experienced a high attack rate early which then diminished in significance after the primary vaccine rollout. Higher Democratic voting consistently correlated negatively with cases, coinciding with previous findings regarding a partisan divide in COVID-19 cases at the county level. Our findings can assist regional policymakers in distributing resources to more vulnerable counties in future pandemics based on SVI.

Robotic versus open radical cystectomy for bladder cancer: evaluation of complications, survival, and opioid prescribing patterns.

We aim to compare complications, readmission, survival, and prescribing patterns of opioids for post-operative pain management for Robotic-assisted laparoscopic radical cystectomy (RARC) as compared to open radical cystectomy (ORC). Patients that underwent RARC or ORC for bladder cancer at a tertiary care center from 2005 to 2021 were included. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated with Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Comparisons of narcotic usage were completed with oral morphine equivalents (OMEQ). Multivariable linear regression was used to assess predictors of OMEQ utilization. A total of 128 RARC and 461 ORC patients were included. There was no difference in rates of Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 3 complications between RARC and ORC (36.7 vs 30.1%, p = 0.16). After a mean follow up of 3.4years, RFS (HR 0.96, 95%CI 0.58-1.56) and OS (HR 0.69, 95%CI 0.46-1.05) were comparable between RARC and ORC. There was no difference in the narcotic usage between patients in the RARC and ORC groups during the last 24h of hospitalization (median OMEQ: 0 vs 0, p = 0.33) and upon discharge (median OMEQ: 178 vs 210, p = 0.36). Predictors of higher OMEQ discharge prescriptions included younger age [(- )3.46, 95%CI (-)5.5-(-)0.34], no epidural during hospitalization [- 95.85, 95%CI (- )144.95-(- )107.36], and early time-period of surgery [(- )151.04, 95%CI (- )194.72-(- )107.36]. RARC has comparable 90-day complication rates and early survival outcomes to ORC and remains a viable option for bladder cancer. RARC results in comparable levels of opioid utilization for pain management as ORC.

Identifying important drivers of East African October to December rainfall season

Monsoon rainfall plays a crucial part in Africa's socio-economic structure and its year-to-year variability has profound implications for agricultural, energy, and other societal sectors. The current study focuses on two of the major climate drivers of the east African rainy season during October-November-December (OND), which is when the season starts for a large portion of east Africa (e.g. Tanzania and Malawi). Such drivers could be different in early austral summer from the rest of the year, due to the relative positioning of the Intertropical convergence zone, which passes through this region - hence regions of east Africa and OND season are the focus here.The two drivers of Monsoon viz. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are considered: both independently indicate strong connections with monsoon OND rain. Not only is there a strong significant positive correlation in the OND season as a simultaneous relation, but the signal is also there even with the lag of a few months. This has been tested using various data sources, detrending data beforehand, analysing either recent time periods or earlier time periods - covering two decades each, and using regression analyses. To further strengthen the results, a compositing approach is applied that can additionally identify strong rainfall signals to that from years when opposite combinations of ENSO and IOD phases act as confounding factors.Results of precipitation anomaly for OND for compositing, when IOD and ENSO are both negative (positive) in July–August-September(JAS) indicate a deficit (excess) in rainfall in that region. The Walker circulation seems to play a major part via altering ascending to descending branch in two situations, when both drivers are in same phase. In the last near thirty years period, a total of 9 years matched the criteria when both drivers were negative and suggested a deficit in OND rainfall; more recently, that criteria occurred also in 2022 (JAS) and was again associated with a rainfall deficit in OND 2022. Based on this analysis, it is possible to deliver an estimation of cumulative rain in terms of median value, range and distribution, one season in advance, at a point location or average over a region.Some results of compositing are confirmed for longer record (1940–2021) too and further classifications based on threshold of drivers are tested. Rainfall (OND) variability at intra-decadal, decadal and multi-decadal scales are studied by applying the method of centered moving averages of 5-year, 11-year and 21-year respectively. Our results have implications for future planning in optimizing agricultural and energy outputs, mitigating severe consequences and losses associated with droughts and excess rain and will impact the livelihoods of millions of east Africans.