Early Mortality In Patients Research Articles

The development of a C5.0 machine learning model in a limited data set to predict early mortality in patients with ARDS undergoing an initial session of prone positioning.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) has a high morbidity and mortality. One therapy that can decrease mortality is ventilation in the prone position (PP). Patients undergoing PP are amongst the sickest, and there is a need for early identification of patients at particularly high risk of death. These patients may benefit from an in-depth review of treatment or consideration of rescue therapies. We report the development of a machine learning model trained to predict early mortality in patients undergoing prone positioning as part of the management of their ARDS. Prospectively collected clinical data were analysed retrospectively from a single tertiary ICU. The records of patients who underwent an initial session of prone positioning whilst receiving invasive mechanical ventilation were identified (n = 131). The decision to perform prone positioning was based on the criteria in the PROSEVA study. A C5.0 classifier algorithm with adaptive boosting was trained on data gathered before, during, and after initial proning. Data was split between training (85% of data) and testing (15% of data). Hyperparameter tuning was achieved through a grid-search using a maximal entropy configuration. Predictions for 7-day mortality after initial proning session were made on the training and testing data. The model demonstrated good performance in predicting 7-day mortality (AUROC: 0.89 training, 0.78 testing). Seven variables were used for prediction. Sensitivity was 0.80 and specificity was 0.67 on the testing data set. Patients predicted to survive had 13.3% mortality, while those predicted to die had 66.67% mortality. Among patients in whom the model predicted patient would survive to day 7 based on their response, mortality at day 7 was 13.3%. Conversely, if the model predicted the patient would not survive to day 7, mortality was 66.67%. This proof-of-concept study shows that with a limited data set, a C5.0 classifier can predict 7-day mortality from a number of variables, including the response to initial proning, and identify a cohort at significantly higher risk of death. This can help identify patients failing conventional therapies who may benefit from a thorough review of their management, including consideration of rescue treatments, such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. This study shows the potential of a machine learning model to identify ARDS patients at high risk of early mortality following PP. This information can guide clinicians in tailoring treatment strategies and considering rescue therapies. Further validation in larger cohorts is needed.

Outcomes of Concomitant Mitral Intervention in Hypertrophic Obstructive Cardiomyopathy Surgery?: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Contemporary Evidence

The 2020 American Heart Association Guidelines advise not to perform mitral valve replacement (MVR) during septal myectomy (SM) to alleviate outflow obstruction. This study aims to review outcomes after concomitant mitral valve (MV) intervention versus SM alone. We conducted a comprehensive literature search across Embase, PubMed, and Scopus. Studies published up to June 15, 2024 were considered. We included studies that compared SM alone to concomitant MV repair or replacement. Subgroup analyses based on MV intervention were performed. Seven studies met our criteria, including 1 randomized and 6 observational studies. The total sample size was 17,565 patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (11,849 SM, 2303 SM + MVR, and 3390 SM + MV repair). Patients who underwent SM + MV intervention had more pronounced preoperative MV regurgitation. SM + MVR was associated with significantly higher early mortality [risk ratio (RR): 2.85, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.37–3.43, P < 0.00001, I² = 0%]. However, there was no difference in early mortality in patients who underwent SM + MV repair compared with SM alone (RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.88–1.49, P = 0.33, I² = 0%). Thirty days systolic anterior motion was significantly lower in patients who underwent SM + MV repair compared with SM alone (RR: 0.15, 95%CI: 0.05–0.45, P = 0.0007). Peak pressure left ventricular outflow tract gradient was significantly lower in the SM + MV repair group compared with SM alone (mean difference: −3.47, 95% CI: −5.55 to −1.39, P = 0.001). Current observational evidence suggests an increased risk of in-patient mortality in patients who underwent SM + MVR. SM + MV repair did not affect early mortality but was linked to improved outcomes. Future comprehensive and matched studies are warranted.

Abstract 4137138: Incidence and Risk factors of Early Mortality in Symptomatic Acute PE: Recent Insights from the COMMAND VTE Registry-2

Background: Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a major health burden with substantial morbidity and mortality. Over the past decade, the acute phase management of venous thromboembolism (VTE) has undergone considerable change. These includes a decline in the use of thrombolytic therapy and inferior vena cava filter, the widespread adoption of direct oral anticoagulant (DAOCs), and the increase in early discharge and initial outpatient treatment facilitated by DOACs. Given these advancements, it is crucial to reassess early mortality risk factors in patients with PE. Objectives: This study aimed to elucidate the mortality and prognostic factors for 30-day early mortality in patients with acute symptomatic PE in recent years. Methods: We utilized the data from the COMMAND VTE Registry-2, a multicenter registry, enrolling 5197 consecutive VTE patients across 31 centers in Japan between January 2015 and August 2020. We selected 2020 patients who presented with acute symptomatic PE. We investigated prognostic factors for early mortality in acute symptomatic PE using the multivariable hazard model. Results: In the entire study population, the mean age was 67.3±15.2 years, with 59.3% of patients being women. Active cancer was reported in 26.2%. Massive PE was observed in 7.3% (n=147), sub-massive PE in 42.6% (n=860), and non-massive PE in 44.2% (n=892). During follow-up period of 30 days, 114 patients had died, resulting in the cumulative overall mortality rate of 5.6%. Death was considered to be due to PE in 54 patients (47.4% of deaths). Patients who died within 30-days were more often male and older than those in the survivor group (44.2% vs. 59.9%, P=0.0396) (70.1±15.6 vs. 67.1±15.2, P=0.0368). Multivariable analysis identified active cancer (HR 3.01 [95%CI 2.00-4.53]), hypotension (HR 2.91 [95% CI 1.92-4.40]), tachycardia (HR 2.17 [95%CI 1.42-3.30]), hypoxemia (HR 1.97 [95%CI 1.15-3.37]), leucocytes (<4000, 12000<) (HR 1.80 [95%CI 1.22-2.68]) and age (≥ 80 years) (HR 1.69 [95%CI 1.10-2.58]) were independent prognostic factors for early mortality in acute symptomatic PE. Conclusions: In this large VTE registry from recent years, several independent prognostic factors for 30-day early mortality in acute symptomatic PE were identified, consisting of active cancer, hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxemia, leucocytes (<4000, 12000<) and age (≥ 80 years).

Prediction of Early Mortality in Esophageal Cancer Patients with Liver Metastasis Using Machine Learning Approaches

Patients with esophageal cancer liver metastasis face a high risk of early mortality, making accurate prediction crucial for guiding clinical decisions. However, effective predictive tools are currently limited. In this study, we used clinicopathological data from 1897 patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer liver metastasis between 2010 and 2020, which were sourced from the SEER database. Prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and seven machine learning models, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and support vector machine (SVM), were developed to predict early mortality. The models were evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and F1 scores. Results showed that 40% of patients experienced all-cause early mortality and 38% had cancer-specific early mortality. Key predictors of early mortality included age, location, chemotherapy, and lung metastasis. Among the models, XGBoost performed best in predicting all-cause early mortality, while SVM excelled in predicting cancer-specific early mortality. These findings demonstrate that machine learning models, particularly XGBoost and SVM, can serve as valuable tools for predicting early mortality in patients with esophageal cancer liver metastasis, aiding clinical decision making.

Improving early mortality risk detection in light-chain cardiac amyloidosis patients with routine echocardiographic indicators and mayo staging

Abstract Background Light-chain cardiac amyloidosis (AL-CA) is a fatal cardiomyopathy caused by the deposition of monoclonal immunoglobulin light-chain in the cardiac fibers, conduction system, valves, and other parts of the heart. The Mayo 2004 staging system is widely used to assess the prognosis of AL-CA. Those in the highest-risk categories, Mayo 2004 stage IIIb, exhibit extremely poor responses to conventional treatment regimens, resulting in high early mortality rates. However, within the same stage, prognostic outcomes among patients can still vary significantly. Hence, a more detailed stratification of high-risk patients is crucial for pinpointing those at extreme risk. Objective To investigate whether conventional echocardiographic measurements can enhance the identification of high-risk patients with early mortality in AL-CA on the basis of existing risk stratification. Methods Continuous enrollment of patients diagnosed with AL-CA at our center from May 2020 to December 2022. Clinical data, echocardiography, and follow-up results of the patients were collected. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for early mortality, with risk factor thresholds calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was employed to assess endpoint events. The diagnostic efficacy of the model was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve and the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). Results A total of 76 patients were included with an average age of 59±10 years. Among them, 51 were male (67.1%). The median follow-up duration was 10 months (ranging from 5 to 20 months). Early mortality, defined as death within 6 months, occurred in 20 patients (26.3%). Twenty-three patients were categorized under the Mayo 2004 stage IIIb (30.3%). The 6-month mortality rate for patients in the Mayo 2004 stage IIIb was 56.5%. The sensitivity of early diastolic transmitral flow velocity to early diastolic mitral annular tissue velocity ratio divided left ventricular ejection fraction [(E/e’) /LVEF] in predicting early mortality in patients with AL-CA is 63%, and the specificity is 92%.When compared to the Mayo 2004 stage IIIb alone, (E/e')/LVEF≥0.5 combined with the Mayo 2004 stage IIIb had an area under the curve of 0.731 and 0.824, respectively, in the ROC curve. The IDI was 0.113 (95% CI: 0.013-0.213, P=0.026), representing an 11.3% enhancement in the predictive value of early mortality in AL-CA patients. Conclusion Routine echocardiography derived E/e' to LVEF ratio offered added prognostic value for early mortality beyond Mayo staging.Kaplan-Meier survival curve

Associations of interfacility transfer with clinical presentation and early mortality in patients with type a acute aortic dissection: a registry study

Abstract Background Acute aortic dissection (AAD), particularly Stanford type A, is a life-threatening condition with high morbidity and mortality that requires prompt diagnosis and urgent intensive treatment including surgical repair. Our reginal aortic network has been established to develop the effective and safe transfer system for patients with AAD. Purpose This study aimed to assess how interfacility transfer impacts clinical presentation and early mortality in type A AAD patients using multicenter registry data. Methods We studied 1024 consecutive patients (age: 70 [58-79] years, 55% male) who were hospitalized for type A AAD within 24 hours after symptom onset during 2017–2018. Patients with cardiopulmonary arrest before hospital arrival were excluded. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between interfacility transfer and operative mortality. Results In this study cohort, 539 patients were transferred from another facility, whereas the remaining 485 were directly admitted to the presenting hospital. Patients with transfer had a longer time from symptom onset to emergency surgery than those without transfer (326 [267–472] min vs. 282 [216–390] min, p<0.001). AAD-related complications (cardiac tamponade, cardiac arrest, shock, aortic rupture, end-organ malperfusion) were more frequent in patients without transfer (32.0% vs 24.5%, p=0.008). Patients with transfer underwent surgical and/or endovascular treatment more frequently (92.9% vs. 74.8%, p<0.001) and had a lower 30-day mortality rate than those without transfer (7.1% vs. 21.9%, p<0.001). The operative mortality was also lower in patients with transfer than in those without transfer (30/501 [6.0%] vs. 43/363 [11.8%], p=0.002). The multivariable analysis conducted in this study revealed that the presence of AAD-related complications at admission was associated with a higher operative mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 5.10; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.00–8.67, p<0.001), whereas interfacility transfer was associated with a lower operative mortality (OR: 0.54; 95% CI:0.31–0.95, p=0.031). Conclusion These findings underscore the critical role of efficient transfer systems and early intervention in managing type A AAD. Despite the delay from symptom onset to surgical intervention, interfacility transfer did not lead to adverse outcomes for patients with type A AAD.

Survival in patients with chronic congestive heart failure and correlation of presence of risk factors and all-cause mortality

Abstract Background Right heart function is known to be an independent risk factor for early mortality in patients with acute and chronic heart failure (HF). The prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is established for risk stratification in patients with Heart Failure. Further, markers of inflammation may predict clinical outcomes. Purpose We performed a single-center retrospective analysis of a large single center cohort and assessed all-cause mortality. A simple score including presence of RVD, systemic inflammation and reduced O2 uptake was applied to all patients and a subgroup survival analysis was performed. Methods A total of 612 patients with HF across the whole spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were analyzed. We stratified patients according to RV function, peak relative oxygen consumption in ml/min/kg (VO2max) and CRP levels. Patients were classified as RV Dysfunction when a right ventricular dilation (RVEDD > 40 mm or RVOT > 30 MM) or decreased tricuspid annular systolic excursion (TAPSE < 17 mm) was seen in the echocardiography. All patients were followed up by phone or by hospital records if available. The primary end-point of all-cause mortality was assessed. Results For the primary analysis, 612 patients (mean age 59.8 ± 13.8 years, 71.41% male) were included. According to LVEF 248 (40.5%) patients had preserved LVEF (HFpEF), 82 (13.0%) had mid-range LVEF (HFmrEF) and 282 (46.0%) had reduced LVEF (HFrEF). HF etiology was in 27% ischemic. Mean BNP values were 514.1 ± 827.1 pg/l. Mean VO2max 15,9 ± 5,9 ml/min per kg. Patients were followed up for a median of 4.0 years (IQR: 3.4 - 4.9 years). Over this period, the primary end-point occurred in 17.6% of patients. 135 (22%) of patients had evidence of RV dysfunction, 26% had increased CRP-levels and 256 (41.8%) had a VO2max < 14 ml/min per kg. Patients with elevated CRP, VO2max < 14 ml/min/kg and RV-dysfunction showed worse survival according to the Kaplan-Meier-Estimate with a significant difference (Log Rank: Chi²: 1480, p = 0.013) compared to patients with only RV dysfunction low VO2 max or only increased CRP values. Conclusion A combined evaluation of systemic inflammation, cardiopulmonal exercise testing and right ventricular dysfunction is useful in predicting long-term outcomes of patients with HF. Patients with both risk factors show worse survival than patients with signs of inflammation or RV dysfunction only.Kaplan-Meier-Estimates

A predictive score for early in-patient tuberculosis mortality: A case-control study

IntroductionIn-hospital mortality rates for tuberculosis (TB) patients are high within the first seven days of admission. This study sought to identify predictors of early inpatient mortality and assess the performance of a predictive score for early mortality in a Ugandan tertiary hospital. Materials and methodsA case-control study was conducted at Kiruddu National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. Cases included patients admitted with TB who died within seven days of admission, while controls survived beyond this period. Logistic regression was utilized to identify early mortality predictors. The performance of an adapted predictive score (PROS score) was evaluated, assigning scores based on the following criteria: Pulse rate >100 beats/min (1 point), Respiratory rate >20 breaths/min (2 points), Oxygen saturation <92 % (4 points), and Systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (2 points). ResultsOf 602 hospitalized TB patients, 187 (31.0 %) died during admission. Among these, 78 (41.7 %) died within seven days. Wasting (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 5.76, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 2.12–15.63, p = 0.001) and respiratory rate >20 breaths/min (aOR = 2.89, 95 % CI 1.19–7.00, p = 0.019) predicted early mortality. PROS score of ≥1 demonstrated a sensitivity of 87.8 % and negative predictive value of 90.0 %. The ultimate TB treatment success rate of all hospitalized patients (n = 599) was 47.4 % with 275 (45.9 %) dying during TB treatment. ConclusionEarly and long term mortality rates among hospitalized TB patients are high. Wasting and tachypnea predict early inpatient mortality. The PROS score could be useful in ruling out low-risk patients in low-resource settings.

Analysis of early and treatment related deaths among children and adolescents with acute myeloid leukemia in Poland: 2005-2023.

A personalised approach to the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in children and adolescents, as well as the development of supportive therapies, has significantly improved survival. Despite this, some patients still die before starting treatment or in an early phase of therapy before achieving remission. The study analysed the frequency, clinical features and risk factors for early deaths (ED) and treatment related deaths (TRD) of children and adolescents with AML. From January 2005 to November 2023, 646 children with AML treated in the centers of the Polish Pediatric Leukemia and Lymphoma Study Group according to three subsequent therapeutic protocols were evaluated: AML-BFM 2004 Interim (385 children), AML-BFM 2012 Registry (131 children) and AML-BFM 2019 (130 children). Out of 646 children, early death occurred in 30 children, including 15 girls. The median age was 10.7 years (1 day to 18 years). More than half of the patients (53%) were diagnosed with acute myelomonocytic leukemia (M5) and 13% with acute promyelocytic leukemia (M3). The ED rate for the three consecutive AML-BFM protocols was 4.9% vs. 5.3% vs. 3.1%, respectively. In 19 patients, death occurred before the 15th day of treatment, in 11 between the 15th and 42nd day. The most common cause of death before the 15th day (ED15) was leukostasis and bleeding, whereas between the 15th and 42nd day (ED15-42), infections, mainly bacterial sepsis. A significant association was found between ED15 and high leukocyte count (>10 × 109/L), M3 leukemia (p < 0.001), and ED15-42 and age <1 year (p = 0.029). In the univariate analysis only initial high leukocyte count >100 × 109/L, was a significant predictor of early death. The overall TRD for the entire study period was 3.4%. The main cause of death were infections, mainly bacterial sepsis (10 children out of 22, 45.4%). Hyperleukocytosis remains significant factor of early mortality in patients with AML, despite the introduction of various cytoreductive methods. Infections are still the main cause of treatment related deaths. A more individualized approach by using new targeted drugs may be the therapeutic option of choice in the future.

Stroke-heart syndrome and early mortality in patients with acute ischaemic stroke using hierarchical cluster analysis: An individual patient data pooled analysis from the VISTA database.

The patient clinical phenotypes at particularly high risk for early cardiac complications after a recent acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), that is, stroke-heart syndrome (SHS), remain poorly defined. We utilised hierarchical cluster analysis to identify specific phenotypic profiles associated with this risk. We gathered data on patients with AIS from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive, a global repository of clinical trial data. We examined cardiac complications within 30 days post-stroke, including acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, arrhythmias and cardiorespiratory arrest. We employed hierarchical cluster analysis to define distinct phenotypic risk profiles. The incidence/risk of SHS and 90-day mortality were compared across these profiles. We included 12,482 patients (mean age 69 ± 12 years; 55% male), yielding five phenotypes: Profile 1 ('elderly and AF'), Profile 2 ('young and smoker'), Profile 3 ('young'), Profile 4 ('cardiac comorbidities') and Profile 5 ('hypertension with atherosclerotic comorbidities'). Profiles 4 and 1 exhibited the highest risk for SHS (adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.01 (1.70-2.38) and 1.26 (1.05-1.51), respectively, compared to Profile 3), while Profiles 5 and 2 showed moderate risk and Profile 3 had the lowest risk. Although Profiles 1 and 4 were at the highest risk for most SHS presentations, Profile 5 had the highest risk for cardiorespiratory arrest (adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.99 (1.22-7.34)). The 90-day mortality risk was stratified by phenotype, with the highest risk observed in Profiles 5, and 4. Hierarchical cluster analysis effectively identified phenotypes with the highest risk of SHS and early mortality in patients with AIS.

Development and validation of a new tool to estimate early mortality in patients with advanced cancer treated with immunotherapy

BackgroundImmune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are standard treatments for advanced solid cancers. Resistance to ICIs, both primary and secondary, poses challenges, with early mortality (EM) within 30–90 days indicating a lack of benefit. Prognostic factors for EM, including the lung immune prognostic index (LIPI), remain underexplored.MethodsWe performed a retrospective, observational study including patients affected by advanced solid tumors, treated with ICI as single agent or combined with other agents. Logistic regression models identified factors associated with EM and 90-day progression risks. A nomogram for predicting 90-day mortality was built and validated within an external cohort.ResultsIn total, 637 patients received ICIs (single agent or in combination with other drugs) for advanced solid tumors. Most patients were male (61.9%), with NSCLC as the prevalent tumor (61.8%). Within the cohort, 21.3% died within 90 days, 8.4% died within 30 days, and 34.5% experienced early progression. Factors independently associated with 90-day mortality included ECOG PS 2 and a high/intermediate LIPI score. For 30-day mortality, lung metastasis and a high/intermediate LIPI score were independent risk factors. Regarding early progression, high/intermediate LIPI score was independently associated. A predictive nomogram for 90-day mortality combining LIPI and ECOG PS achieved an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71–0.81). The discrimination ability of the nomogram was confirmed in the external validation cohort (n = 255) (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.64–0.80).ConclusionLIPI and ECOG PS independently were able to estimate 90-day mortality, with LIPI also demonstrating prognostic validity for 30-day mortality and early progression.

Comparison of risk assessment scores in patients with pulmonary embolism

Background Pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the most fatal emergencies with a high risk of mortality. Multiple risk stratification scores have been developed to assess a patient’s overall mortality risk. Objective This study aimed to validate modified FAST and modified Bova scores for risk stratification and predicting the risk of early mortality in patients presenting with acute PE. Patients and methods Patients admitted to Assiut University Hospital with PE were sequentially included. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), modified Bova, and modified FAST scores were calculated for all included patients. Results A total of 100 patients with PE were sequentially included. It was found that predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with PE were; chronic heart failure [odds ratio (OR)= 1.87], chronic respiratory disease (OR= 1.99), chronic kidney disease (OR= 2.01), hypotension (OR= 2.99), intermediate-high risk- PESI (simplified version; OR=2.76), intermediate-high risk modified Bova score (OR= 3.01) and intermediate-high risk modified FAST score (OR= 3.90).It was found that the modified FAST score had the best diagnostic accuracy (89.2%) with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.962, followed by the modified Bova score with accuracy 76.8% and AUC 0.761. The two scores had higher accuracy than that for PESI score (53.4%, AUC= 0.627). Conclusion Modified FAST and modified Bova scores are simple and reliable tools for risk stratification of patients with acute PE.

The short-term outcomes and risk factors of post-myocardial infarction ventricular septal rupture: a multi-center retrospective Study

ObjectivesPost-myocardial infarction ventricular septal rupture (PIVSR) is one of the most severe types of mechanical complications after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with high mortality and poor prognosis. The risk factors for short-term mortality of patients with PIVSR may be not widely recognized. We aimed to assess the prevalence and short-term mortality risk predictors of PIVSR.MethodsA total of 62 patients with a diagnosis of PIVSR were admitted to three top general public hospitals in Chongqing, China. Clinical characteristics and short-term outcomes of patients with PIVSR were compared. Predictors of PIVSR were assessed using logistic regression analysis.ResultsMean age was 70.7 ± 10.7 years (38.7% female). The overall in-hospital mortality of PIVSR remained high (71%). Most (47/62) of the patients were in Killip class III or IV at the time of rupture diagnosis. Logistic regression analysis revealed that white blood cell count (WBC, OR 1.619, 95% CI 1.172–2.237, P = 0.005), cardiogenic shock (OR 47.706, 95%CI 2.859-795.945, P = 0.007) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, OR 0.803, 95%CI 0.689–0.936, P = 0.009) were independent risk factors of in-hospital early mortality. The nomogram developed for predicting the risk of short-term mortality showed a robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.956 (95%CI 0.912-1.000).ConclusionThe short-term mortality of PIVSR remained high. WBC, cardiogenic shock, and LVEF were the independent predictive factors of short-term mortality. Our nomogram might be used to predict early mortality of patients with PIVSR.

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for synchronous brain metastases of solid tumors: a population-based study.

In previous literatures, we found that similar studies on the short-term prognosis of synchronous brain metastases (S-BM) from other systems are rare. Our aim was to evaluate the early mortality rate of patients with S-BM from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database and explore the risk factors for early mortality (≤ 1 year). We used Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves to evaluate early mortality in patients with S-BM from the SEER database. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify significant independent prognostic factors in patients with a follow-up time > 12 months. And the meaningful factors were used to construct a nomogram of overall early death. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to test the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve was used to validate the clinical application ability of the model. A total of 47,284 patients were used for univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen variables to constructing a nomogram. In the all-cause early mortality specific model, the area under the ROC (AUC) curve of the training set was 0.764 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.758-0.769), and the AUC of the validation set was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.752-0.770). The DCA calibration curves of the training set and validation set indicate that the 1-year early mortality rate predicted by this model is consistent with the actual situation. We found that the 1-year early mortality rate was 76.4%. We constructed a validated nomogram using these covariates to effectively predict 1-year early mortality in patients with S-BM. This nomogram can help clinical workers screen high-risk patients to develop more reasonable treatment plans.

The Microbiological Characteristics of Acinetobacter Baumannii Associated With Early Mortality in Patients With Bloodstream Infection.

Despite rapid deaths resulting from Acinetobacter baumannii bacteremia, the clinical impact of the microbiological characteristics of A baumannii strains on early mortality (EM) is unclear. We aimed to identify the microbiological characteristics of A baumannii strains associated with EM. Clinical information and isolates from patients with A baumannii bacteremia from January 2015 to December 2021 were collected. EM was defined as death within 3 days of the initial positive blood culture, whereas late mortality meant death within 5-30 days. The microbiological characteristics of A baumannii were analyzed using multilocus sequence typing, polymerase chain reactions, and a Galleria mellonella in vivo infection model. Among 130 patients, 69 (53.1%) died within 30 days and EM occurred in 38 (55.1% of 30-day deaths). Sequence type 191 (ST191) strain was more prevalent in patients with EM than in 30-day survivors (31.6% vs 6.6%). Regarding virulence genes, bfmS was more frequent (92.1% vs 47.5%), whereas bauA was less frequent (13.2% vs 52.5%) in patients with EM than in 30-day survivors. Higher clinical severity, pneumonia, and ST191 infection were identified as independent risk factors for EM. In the G mellonella infection model, ST191, bfmS+, and bauA- isolates showed higher virulence than non-ST191, bfmS-, and bauA+ isolates, respectively. ST191 and bfmS were more frequently found in the EM group. ST191 infection was also an independent risk factor for EM and highly virulent in the in vivo model. Tailored infection control measures based on these characteristics are necessary for A baumannii bacteremia management.

Prevalence of co-existent COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) and its impact on early mortality in patients with COVID-19-associated pulmonary mucormycosis (CAPM).

Data on mixed mould infection with COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) and COVID-19-associated pulmonary mucormycosis (CAPM) are sparse. To ascertain the prevalence of co-existent CAPA in CAPM (mixed mould infection) and whether mixed mould infection is associated with early mortality (≤7 days of diagnosis). We retrospectively analysed the data collected from 25 centres across India on COVID-19-associated mucormycosis. We included only CAPM and excluded subjects with disseminated or rhino-orbital mucormycosis. We defined co-existent CAPA if a respiratory specimen showed septate hyphae on smear, histopathology or culture grew Aspergillus spp. We also compare the demography, predisposing factors, severity of COVID-19, and management of CAPM patients with and without CAPA. Using a case-control design, we assess whether mixed mould infection (primary exposure) were associated with early mortality in CAPM. We included 105 patients with CAPM. The prevalence of mixed mould infection was 20% (21/105). Patients with mixed mould infection experienced early mortality (9/21 [42.9%] vs. 15/84 [17.9%]; p = 0.02) and poorer survival at 6 weeks (7/21 [33.3] vs. 46/77 [59.7%]; p = 0.03) than CAPM alone. On imaging, consolidation was more commonly encountered with mixed mould infections than CAPM. Co-existent CAPA (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 19.1 [2.62-139.1]) was independently associated with early mortality in CAPM after adjusting for hypoxemia during COVID-19 and other factors. Coinfection of CAPA and CAPM was not uncommon in our CAPM patients and portends a worse prognosis. Prospective studies from different countries are required to know the impact of mixed mould infection.

The Relationship Between Post-Operative Systemic Inflammation and Early Mortality in Patients With Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

The Relationship Between Post-Operative Systemic Inflammation and Early Mortality in Patients With Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Should we operate on patients with acute type A aortic dissection who present with cardiopulmonary resuscitation?

Acute aortic dissection type A (AADA) is a life-threatening medical emergency. Emergent surgical repair is the gold standard but mortality remains high. Mortality is even higher in patients who arrive at the hospital in poor condition, especially after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). This study was designed to analyse the outcome of patients who underwent surgery for AADA and who require preoperative CPR. Between 2000 and 2023, 810 patients underwent emergent surgery for AADA at our centre. Of these, 63 had preoperative CPR. We performed a retrospective analysis with follow-up. Mean age was 64 ± 13 years and 37 (59%) patients were male. Further, 50 (79%) patients had preoperative intubation, and 54 (86%) had pericardial effusion. Twenty-four (38%) patients had out-of-hospital CPR, 19 (30%) required CPR in hospital and 20 (32%) needed CPR in the operating room. Successful CPR with return of spontaneous circulation was achieved in 41 (65%) patients, and 22 (35%) underwent emergent surgery under ongoing CPR. The median time of CPR was 10 (interquartile range 12) min, and the median time from onset of symptoms to start of the operation was 5.5 (interquartile range 4.8) h. The majority of patients underwent ascending aortic replacement with hemiarch repair (n = 37, 59%). Further, 26 (41%) patients underwent full root replacement. Another 15 (24%) patients underwent total arch repair with or without (frozen) elephant trunk repair. Postoperative stroke was present in 8 (13%) patients. The 30-day mortality was 29 (46%). The 30-day mortality of patients with preoperative intubation was not significantly higher (n = 15/28, 54%, P = 0.446). The 1-, 5- and 10-year survival rates of the entire group were 42, 39 and 36%. Early mortality for patients undergoing surgery for AADA with preoperative CPR is extremely high (almost 50%). However, this means that also ∼50% of patients benefit from surgery despite poor preoperative prognosis. Patients with preoperative intubation after CPR and unknown neurological condition should also undergo surgery. Patients who survive the initial operation for AADA have acceptable long-term survival. Emergent surgery should be offered for all patients with AADA regardless of the preoperative condition, even after CPR.

Development and validation of comprehensive nomograms from the SEER database for predicting early mortality in metastatic rectal cancer patients

BackgroundMetastatic rectal cancer is an incurable malignancy, which is prone to early mortality. We aimed to establish nomograms for predicting the risk of early mortality in patients with metastatic rectal cancer.MethodsIn this study, clinical data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.We utilized X-tile software to determine the optimal cut-off points of age and tumor size in diagnosis. Significant independent risk factors for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were determined by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, then we construct two practical nomograms. In order to assess the predictive performance of nomograms, we performed calibration plots, time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).ResultsA total of 2570 metastatic rectal cancer patients were included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that age at diagnosis, CEA level, tumor size, surgical intervention, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and metastases to bone, brain, liver, and lung were independently associated with early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients in the training cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) values of nomograms for all-cause and cancer-specific early mortality were all higher than 0.700. Calibration curves indicated that the nomograms accurately predicted early mortality and exhibited excellent discrimination. DCA and CIC showed moderately positive net benefits.ConclusionsThis study successfully generated applicable nomograms that predicted the high-risk early mortality of metastatic rectal cancer patients, which can assist clinicians in tailoring more effective treatment regimens.

The ISTH DIC-score predicts early mortality in patients with non-promyelocitic acute myeloid leukemia

Coagulation disorders frequently complicate the clinical course of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. This study examined the frequency and prognostic significance, with regards of early mortality, of the presence of overt disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) at AML diagnosis and its correlation with clinical and biological characteristics.A retrospective analysis of 351 newly diagnosed non-promyelocytic AML patients was conducted, utilizing the 2018 ISTH DIC-Score criteria to evaluate the presence of overt DIC at AML onset. The study cohort had a median age of 65 years with a predominance of male gender (59 %). Overt DIC was present in 21 % of cases and was associated with advanced age, comorbidities, poor performance status, hyperleukocytosis, LDH levels, NPM1 mutations, expression of CD33 and CD4, and lack of expression of CD34. With a median follow-up of 72 months (3–147 months), the 6-year overall survival (OS) was 17.4 %, with patients having overt DIC showing significantly poorer outcomes (7.2 % compared to 20.3 % of those without DIC, p < 0.001). Patients with overt DIC showed markedly high early mortality rates at 30 (42.5 % vs 8 %), 60 (49.3 % vs 16.9 %), and 120 days (64.4 % vs 25.6 %) from disease onset. In multivariate analysis overt DIC retained its independent prognostic value for early mortality.In conclusion, the prevalence and clinical relevance of DIC in non-promyelocytic AML is not negligible, underlining its potential as an unfavorable prognostic marker. In newly diagnosed patients with AML, early recognition and measure to counteract coagulation disturbances might help mitigate the elevated mortality risk associated with DIC.