Early Elections Research Articles

Extraordinary parliamentary elections in Ukraine during martial law

The article is devoted to the little-studied issue in Ukraine of the legislative ban on extraordinary, or early, parliamentary elections during the period of the special legal regime of martial law. The subject of the study is such a type of early parliamentary elections as interim elections of people’s deputies. The relevance of the researched issue is determined by the ongoing martial law regime in Ukraine and the legislative ban on holding any elections, the necessity of which arises during this martial law. It is noted that the difference between ordinary and extraordinary parliamentary elections in the conditions of this martial law is that the ban on holding ordinary parliamentary elections leaves the country with a valid parliament, and the ban on holding extraordinary parliamentary elections deprives the country of a valid parliament. In order to investigate the legality of the application of this ban to the interim elections of people’s deputies, the following was analyzed: first, the legislative justification of the state election management body in Ukraine regarding the non-appointment and non-holding of these interim parliamentary elections during this martial law, using the example of the latest case from December 13, 2023; and secondly, the publications of Ukrainian scientists regarding these interim parliamentary elections in the conditions of this martial law. It was found out, firstly, that this ban is not a norm of the Constitution of Ukraine neither for scientists nor for the state election management body, and secondly, that this ban does not have an indisputable link of consistency with the Constitution of Ukraine: some legal researchers claim , that this ban corresponds to Article 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine, but other researchers of this Article 64 come to conclusions that exclude the possibility of consistency of this ban with this article of the Constitution of Ukraine. It is substantiated that the content of Article 64 of the Constitution of Ukraine has three meanings regarding the interim elections of people’s deputies during this martial law: 1) they can be held, 2) they can not be held, 3) they can be held with a limited number of voters. It is proposed to consider as an alternative to this prohibition of by-elections of people’s deputies during this state of war martial law electoral qualification - a special and temporary restriction of the circle of voters for holding these by-elections in the conditions of this war. A variant of this qualification is proposed - the qualification of a legal entity.

The Government Financial Advantage of Early Elections: Evidence from UK MP Candidate Spending

In many parliamentary democracies, incumbents retain the right to call early elections. This is thought to provide incumbent governments with an advantage due to the ability to time elections to favorable economic conditions. This article explores an additional incumbency advantage of early elections. Due to information asymmetry about election timing, government parties can better plan fundraising in early elections years compared to non-government parties, which gives government parties a relative financial advantage. This proposition is tested on campaign spending data from over 50,000 British parliamentary candidates 1945–2019. The results support the argument. Government party candidates gain a relative financial advantage in early elections years compared to scheduled election years. The effect is found only for non-incumbent candidates and was eliminated by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011, which removed government early election calling. The results suggest that government election calling power provides incumbent government parties with a relative financial advantage.

The Party That Benefits from Early Elections

The Party That Benefits from Early Elections

Celebrification through Media Spectacles: Emerging Forms of Performativity in Indian Politics

We live at a time when new forms of mediatisation are conditioning the political landscape of India, especially in the context of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the country. As heat wave conditions prevailed in many parts of the country, the quantity of time spent by politicians for on-ground campaigning was lesser in comparison with earlier elections. The hostile climatic conditions together with the intensity of digital empowerment, access to smartphones and availability of cheap data facilitated the formation of a thriving ecosystem of digital campaigning. The country witnessed political parties using digital spaces to an unprecedented level to inform, influence and even mislead the prospective voters. The focus of the paper will be on the strategic use of social media networks for the current elections in India to transform politicians into celebrities and the acts of performativity choreographed to entice the citizens with media spectacles.

Portugal: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractIn 2023, Portugal experienced the end of a political cycle of Socialist government rule that had started in 2014. Several scandals affected the executive throughout the year, including traffic of influence. There were also regional elections in Madeira on 24 September, which were won by the Social Democratic Party (Partido Social Democrata). At the end of the year, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dismissed Prime Minister Antonio Costa. This still allowed the budget for 2024 to be passed in December, with the call for early legislative elections being postponed to the beginning of 2024.

Bulgaria: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractIn 2023, Bulgaria saw the first regular, politically accountable, Cabinet after two years of caretaker cabinets following early elections in April. The election saw Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (Grazhdani za evropeysko razvitie na Bulgaria, GERB) emerge as the plurality winner but without a clear majority, and a coalition government between GERB and We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP‐DB) materialized. Seen as an artificially cobbled‐together creation, the Cabinet faced increasing opposition and two failed no‐confidence votes. A constitutional amendment in late 2023 limited the president's power to appoint caretaker cabinets. Bulgaria remained divided on its stance toward Russia and nationalism, and political apathy rose, casting doubt on future stability.

Slovakia: Political Developments and Data in 2023

AbstractTwo interim cabinets extended the legitimacy crisis that began in December 2022, after the Heger II Cabinet lost a no‐confidence vote. The early parliamentary election in September 2023 underscored public dissatisfaction with the coalition's management of domestic and global challenges, propelling Robert Fico's Direction‐Social Democracy (SMER–Sociálna demokracia) back into power for the fourth time.

Cross-sectional examination of current and future trends and attributes of the presidents of the American Association of Neurological Surgeons and the Congress of Neurological Surgeons societies

ObjectiveThe present study aimed to analyze the academic attributes of the presidents of the American Association of Neurological Surgeons (AANS) and the Congress of Neurological Surgeons (CNS) over the past four decades to elucidate the trajectories of these societies' leaderships. MethodsForty-three AANS and 43 CNS presidents of the past four decades were identified. Demographic and research productivity data were collected from publicly available sources. ResultsCompared to AANS presidents, CNS presidents were younger (median = 48 years vs. 59.5 years; p < 0.001), had fewer years of practice prior to their election (15 years vs. 28 years; p < 0.001), had higher NIH funding rate (37.2% vs. 11.6%; p = 0.01), and higher rate of practicing at academic institutions (93% vs. 74.4%; p = 0.04). The CNS presidents had a comparable median number of publications at election (AANS: 72 vs. CNS: 94 publications, p = 0.78) but a higher median h-index scores (AANS: 28 vs. CNS: 59; p = 0.04). In the multiple linear regression analysis, vascular subspecialty (β = 0.21 [95% CI: 0.09–0.34]; p = 0.002) and practicing in a non-academic institution (β = 0.23 [95% CI: 0.08–0.39]; p = 0.007) were predictors for later election for AANS presidency. ConclusionsWe characterized the attributes of AANS and CNS presidents to serve as useful references for career trajectories for junior neurosurgeons and trainees. Research and academic presence seem to be associated with early election to both societies.

Campus Voting During the COVID-19 Pandemic

How did the pandemic impact turnout of young voters living in university communities? Leveraging the mandatory vacating of Florida college students living on campuses and drawing on administrative data from Florida’s voter file, we argue that on-campus registered young voters who had to leave their university housing in the days prior to Florida’s 2020 Presidential Preference Primary (PPP) were less likely to turn out compared to adjacent off-campus young voters because they lost the opportunity to cast early in-person and Election Day ballots. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we find that on-campus students, in part because they had early and Election Day voting available to them on campus in the 2020 general election, were more likely than comparable off-campus student-aged registered voters to cast ballots in the November election. Our study has important implications for academic debates concerning the turnout effects of convenience voting reforms and the ability of voters to cast ballots prior to Election Day.

French elections 2024: double defeat for Macron

The crushing defeat of presidential coalition led by the Revival party in the European elections on June 9 provoked E. Macron's unexpected and risky decision to dissolve the National Assembly and hold early parliamentary elections. However, the goals of the head of state to counter-defeat Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and form a stable majority in the lower house of parliament were not achieved. Although, as a result of the elections, not a single political bloc received the absolute majority of votes, the winner was the left “New Popular Front” that gained the majority of parliamentary mandates, giving the right to form a new government. Thus, in France a new, fourth period in the history of the Fifth Republic begins, a period of “political cohabitation” between the president and the government, representing different political forces. Early elections increased the polarization of the French party-political system, consolidating its three-bloc structure. For the first time, the far-right National Rally became the largest parliamentary party. The results of early elections marked the end of the seven-year “era of Macronism”.

Do incumbents gain from calling a snap election?

ABSTRACT In many countries the incumbent party is free to call an early election. This gives them an advantage over opposition parties. But this decision can also backfire. In the present paper, we examine voters’ reactions to a snap election held despite a fixed election date, resistance by opposition parties, and a global pandemic. We conduct a survey experiment during the 2021 Canadian federal election campaign to assess whether voters are influenced by information about the fixed election law and the argument that the election call was opportunistic and unnecessary. While some respondents, particularly partisans of the Liberal Party, the incumbent party, moderately respond in a negative way to new information, our treatments overall do little to influence views about the snap election. However, negative attitudes toward the election call are a decisive consideration for many voters, inflicting an electoral cost to the Liberal Party which likely deprived it from a legislative majority.

EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN SERBIA

The article is devoted to the early elections held in Serbia on December 17, 2023 – parliamentary, metropolitan and partly local. The main motive for their early holding: the desire to confirm the legitimacy of power after mass protests of the opposition, also to demonstrate its political impotence, and simultaneously buy time on the foreign policy stage to reduce pressure from Washington and Brussels. The outcome of the election was another victory for President A. Vučič and ruling Serbian Progressive Party. She was not a mystery to observers or participants beforehand. You could only argue about the account. But in the capital, the opposition had good chances, and this was confirmed. The voting results were considered and an assessment was given of the opposition demonstrations after the elections, as well as the degree and nature of involvement in these events of Brussels and Washington. The reasons for the persistent invincibility of the ruling «progressives», the partial strengthening of the pro-Western «democratic» opposition and the unexpected success of the new populist movement «We are a voice from the people» have been revealed. The logic of political behavior and the relationship between foreign and political balancing of the President of Serbia were analyzed. It was concluded that A. Vučič mainly achieved his goals and retained such a structure of power that provides him with a central role in Serbian politics, as well as free hands in further orientation in the international arena. It will not be unambiguous and straightforward in any case. But his room for maneuver has narrowed, and the direction of drift will be determined by the balance of power in the confrontation between West and East.

Formation of the government in Montenegro

This article examines the protracted and controversial process of government formation in Montenegro in the aftermath of the presidential (19.03–02.04.2023) and early parliamentary elections (11.06.2023), although their results had already indicated who won, who lost. The problems revealed during the negotiations between the candidates for participation in power, which clearly characterize the mores of the subjects of the political scene of the country and the prospects of the new cabinet, are analyzed. Its structure and program are considered. The balance of power in the parliament is correlated with the sentiments of citizens revealed by polls. The forecast of Montenegro’s foreign policy orientation under the new government and the likelihood of its early admission to the EU are given. It was stated that normalization of relations with Serbia is possible, but in any case, no change in the general anti-Russian vector of foreign policy should be expected.

«Красочная революция» 2015–2016 гг. в Северной Македонии

The article analyzes the revolutionary events that took place in North Macedonia in 2015–2016. The political crisis did not arise by chance: Macedonian society was fragmented over issues of identity, and the rules of political competition were unequal, creating additional incentives for the opposition to organize protests. Mass anti-government protests led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who had held his post since 2006, and the calling of the early parliamentary elections in the country, in which the ruling party failed to form a coalition and became the opposition. In addition to the change of government, the revolution also led to a change in the country's identity policy and name, as well as its membership in NATO in 2020.

Reconstructing the Political Future of Armenia: Overcoming Contemporary Turbulence Through Role Models

This article deals with the problem of reconstructing the political future of post-war Armenia and overcoming modern turbulence in the context of regional instability. Characteristic features of overcoming widespread anxiety in the Armenian society, which manifested itself on the political stage in different ways, from popular protests and early elections to heated debates about the political future in recent years, are highlighted and described. The most important condition for the development of post-war Armenia is the extent to which Armenian society is able to form a concept for its future. Ideas about the future were of particular importance in critical epochs, when the traditional picture of the world was destroyed and new opportunities for social development opened up. But for many centuries, these ideas did not go beyond prophecies, predictions and various kinds of hoaxes, which essentially became the first attempts to predict the future. This article attempts to uncover the main causes of modern instability in Armenia, thereby contributing to the Armenian society to deconstruct and reconstruct the political future. In this context, it also means that even the scientific methodology for knowing the future has not yet been developed, since most scientific methods remain imperfect and do not give the researcher confidence in the accuracy of the forecast.

Portugal: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractIn this article, the main events of political life in Portugal are discussed. It includes a report on general elections in 2022, the formation of a new Socialist absolute majority government led by Prime Minister Antonio Costa, and major parliamentary decisions and debates. The year 2022 started with early general elections, strengthening the ruling Socialist Party, which won a majority of seats in the national Parliament. However, it took some time for the new government to learn to govern in the new context.

Дніпровський національний університет імені Олеся Гончара пр. Гагаріна, 72, м. Дніпро, Україна, 49000 ПРЕЗИДЕНТСЬКІ ВИБОРИ В УКРАЇНІ В 1991–2019 РР. (ДО ПРОБЛЕМИ ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЇ КОМУНІКАЦІЙНИХ ТА ВИБОРЧИХ ТЕХНОЛОГІЙ)

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;The purpose&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt; of the study is to identify the peculiarities of communication strategies and election technologies in all presidential elections in Ukraine in 1991–2019 as a systemic, holistic, dynamic political process and to analyze in detail their features and the transformations they underwent under the influence of the socio-political, economic, and socio-cultural situation in the country.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Research methodology&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt; is based on comparative-historical, retrospective, situational and analytical methods that made it possible to highlight the problem under analysis as well as the originality of the material under the study.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Results &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;the paper focuses on each of the stages of the President elections and the evolution of the communicative strategies and election technologies used in them – from the first stage where the promoter of the nomenlklature L. Kuchma and the leader of national-patriotic forces V. Chornovol were in opposition. At that time the use of the means of agitprop and administration resource was customary. The same use of agitation and propaganda means characterized the early election of 90-s at which a new political force was put forward. It was the Ukrainian union of entrepreneurs and industrialists led by L. Kuchma.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;TV communication and PR-technologies together with «printed word» editions were used further. And already the election of 2004 knew the brutal use of manipulative technologies and the work of the press dependent on oligarchs. The last election company in which a politician and an actor were in opposition became the final approval of the «pageant policy». With the help of the traditional communication (TV and cinema) and the use of digital communication the applicants transferred to virtual area. The victory won the one who felt himself more comfortably in it.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Novelty&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt; is in the fact that for the first time the attempt to the systematic research of the President election process in the social-political context is done.&lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Practical significance &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;is in the identification of those election aspects that lead to the use of manipulative technologies and in the attempt to highlight the most acceptable ways to adapt the world experience to the Ukrainian reality. &lt;strong&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;Key words: &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;em&gt;election, politics, media, «logocracy», «videocracy», stereotypes, PR-technology, manipulation, adminresource, mythologeme.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Bulgaria: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractThe data entry reviews the major political developments in Bulgaria in 2022, including the governmental crisis of May–June 2022, the early elections in October 2022, the failure to form a new Cabinet in the last months of 2022, and the continuing de facto rule of President Radev. It also discusses the main issues in Bulgarian politics, including the position of GERB (i.e., Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) in the political process, the Bulgarian ambivalent position on the Russian‐Ukrainian war, and the impact of the war on energy prices and general economic development in the country.

Войната в Украйна в ракурса на предизборната кампания за 49-ото обикновено народно събрание

The crisis in political speech in our country (2022 – 2023) was strongly influenced by the military conflict in Ukraine that officially began on February 26, 2022. The war, which has shaken politics at the international level, has exposed the thick red lines between political entities in Bulgaria, deepening the parliamentary crisis that has reached a state of collapse in the past year and a half. And the media – intentionally or not, became a witness and accomplice to what was happening. The relevance of the chosen topic is dictated by the need to analyze the political speech regarding the military conflict in Ukraine during the election campaign for the fifth consecutive early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria (April 2, 2023). In the analysis, the author refers to the messages from the political formations and the position they take on the war, as well as their media coverage. The positions of media experts are presented. Sociological surveys were also examined, which show the attitude of the voters on the question. The goals of the development are to make an attempt to analyze the behavior of the main political subjects in our country regarding the war in Ukraine, the position they take, as well as the messages they send to the voters; to examine the results of each party’s strategy and how far it was able to influence the election result; to offer a prediction about the future development of the parties (possible and impossible partners) in the perspective of their political speech related to the military conflict. The pre-election campaign for the 49th Ordinary National Assembly was marked by the theme of the war in Ukraine and made it necessary for political subjects to clearly define their position on the conflict both to the voters and to their competitors, but also to future potential partners in the attempt to form a cabinet. In the current uncertain domestic political and international situation, the Bulgarian voter demonstrates the need for clearly stated and categorical positions in which to recognize his convictions.

Slovakia: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractThe war in Ukraine and its fallout dominated politics in Slovakia throughout 2022. The coalition split up after the summer, leaving the Cabinet in a fragile position in Parliament. This led to chaotic parliamentary sessions in October and November that ended on 15 December, when the Heger II Cabinet lost a no‐confidence vote initiated by a former coalition party Freedom and Solidarity, SaS. As no new parliamentary majority formed, the Heger II Cabinet continued in office under the supervision of President Z. Čaputová, with parliamentary political parties unable to compromise on early elections.