Early Developmental Stages Of Psychopathology Research Articles

Prospective prediction of suicide attempts in community adolescents and young adults, using regression methods and machine learning

BackgroundThe use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to study suicidality has recently been recommended. Our aim was to explore whether ML approaches have the potential to improve the prediction of suicide attempt (SA) risk. Using the epidemiological multiwave prospective-longitudinal Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) data set, we compared four algorithms—logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest—in predicting a future SA in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. MethodsThe EDSP Study prospectively assessed, over the course of 10 years, adolescents and young adults aged 14–24 years at baseline. Of 3021 subjects, 2797 were eligible for prospective analyses because they participated in at least one of the three follow-up assessments. Sixteen baseline predictors, all selected a priori from the literature, were used to predict follow-up SAs. Model performance was assessed using repeated nested 10-fold cross-validation. As the main measure of predictive performance we used the area under the curve (AUC). ResultsThe mean AUCs of the four predictive models, logistic regression, lasso, ridge, and random forest, were 0.828, 0.826, 0.829, and 0.824, respectively. ConclusionsBased on our comparison, each algorithm performed equally well in distinguishing between a future SA case and a non-SA case in community adolescents and young adults. When choosing an algorithm, different considerations, however, such as ease of implementation, might in some instances lead to one algorithm being prioritized over another. Further research and replication studies are required in this regard.

Specific traumatic events elevate the risk of a suicide attempt in a 10-year longitudinal community study on adolescents and young adults.

Traumatic events (TEs) have been associated with suicide attempts (SAs). However, the empirical status of some TEs is inconclusive. This also concerns community adolescents and young adults, known to be a high-risk group for SAs. We examined associations between (a) a range of prior TEs (physical attack, rape/sexual abuse, serious accident, and witnessing somebody else experiencing a TE) and a subsequent SA, and (b) the number of prior TEs and an SA, and (c) we estimated attributable proportions of SAs, in relation to each TE. Over a 10-year period, the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study prospectively assessed community members, aged 14-24years at baseline. Starting with 3021 subjects, each individual was assessed up to four times. Assessment was based on the Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Temporal associations were estimated using the Cox model with time-dependent covariates. Attributable proportions were based on the results of the Cox models. All four TEs elevated the risk for a subsequent SA, adjusting for confounders. Highest risk was found for the combined TE rape/sexual abuse. Results showed that 56-90% of SAs could be attributed to TEs in the exposed group; on the population level, attributable proportions ranged between 6.9% and 23.5%. Different TEs have been shown to elevate the risk of an SA in a young community sample. Our results suggest that both health professionals and health policy decision-makers consider specific TEs and the number of prior TEs as risk factors for SAs.

The 'Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study': a 20-year review of methods and findings.

The "Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP)" study is a prospective-longitudinal study program in a community sample (Munich, Germany) of adolescents and young adults. The program was launched in 1994 to study the prevalence and incidence of psychopathological syndromes and mental disorders, to describe the natural course and to identify vulnerability and risk factors for onset and progression as well as psychosocial consequences. This paper reviews methods and core outcomes of this study program. The EDSP is based on an age-stratified random community sample of originally N = 3021 subjects aged 14-24 years at baseline, followed up over 10 years with up to 3 follow-up waves. The program includes a family genetic supplement and nested cohorts with lab assessments including blood samples for genetic analyses. Psychopathology was assessed with the DSM-IV/M-CIDI; embedded dimensional scales and instruments assessed vulnerability and risk factors. Beyond the provision of age-specific prevalence and incidence rates for a wide range of mental disorders, analyses of their patterns of onset, course and interrelationships, the program identified common and diagnosis-specific distal and proximal vulnerability and risk factors including critical interactions. The EDSP study advanced our knowledge on the developmental pathways and trajectories, symptom progression and unfolding of disorder comorbidity, highlighting the dynamic nature of many disorders and their determinants. The results have been instrumental for defining more appropriate diagnostic thresholds, led to the derivation of symptom progression models and were helpful to identify promising targets for prevention and intervention.

Smoking predicts suicidality: Findings from a prospective community study

Background The temporal relationship between smoking and suicidality is not yet clear. This article examines associations between smoking and suicidality and their temporal ordering of onset. Methods Baseline and four-year follow-up data were used from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, a prospective longitudinal study of adolescents and young adults in Munich, Germany. We assessed smoking (occasional and regular), nicotine dependence, suicidal ideation and suicide attempts using the standardized Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). Results Suicide ideation and suicide attempts were strongly associated with occasional and regular smoking and nicotine dependence at baseline (Odds ratios [OR] range from 1.4 to 16.4). In the prospective analyses, prior occasional, regular smoking and nicotine dependence increased the risk for new onset of suicide ideation (OR range from 1.5 to 2.7) and prior regular smoking and nicotine dependence increased also the risk for onset of suicide attempt(s) (OR range between 3.1 and 4.5). Pre-existing suicidality could not be shown to be associated with subsequent smoking or nicotine dependence. Associations remained stable when participants who fulfilled DSM-IV-criteria for major depression were excluded. Limitations The sample is confined to an age cohort of 14 to 24 years. No completed suicides could be observed. Conclusions The presence of associations between prior smoking and subsequent suicidality, in concert with the lack of associations between prior suicidality and subsequent smoking suggests the existence of an independent pathway from smoking to suicidality.

Does normal developmental expression of psychosis combine with environmental risk to cause persistence of psychosis? A psychosis proneness–persistence model

Research suggests that low-grade psychotic experiences in the general population are a common but transitory developmental phenomenon. Using two independent general population samples, the hypothesis was examined that common, non-clinical developmental expression of psychosis may become abnormally persistent when synergistically combined with developmental exposures that may impact on behavioural and neurotransmitter sensitization such as cannabis, trauma and urbanicity. The amount of synergism was estimated from the additive statistical interaction between baseline cannabis use, childhood trauma and urbanicity on the one hand, and baseline psychotic experiences on the other, in predicting 3-year follow-up psychotic experiences, using data from two large, longitudinal, random population samples from the Netherlands [The Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS)] and Germany [The Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study]. The 3-year persistence rates of psychotic experiences were low at 26% in NEMESIS and 31% in EDSP. However, persistence rates were progressively higher with greater baseline number of environmental exposures in predicting follow-up psychotic experiences (chi2=6.9, df=1, p=0.009 in NEMESIS and chi2=4.2, df=1, p=0.04 in EDSP). Between 21% and 83% (NEMESIS) and 29% and 51% (EDSP) of the subjects exposed to both environmental exposures and psychotic experiences at baseline had persistence of psychotic experiences at follow-up because of the synergistic action of the two factors. The findings suggest that environmental risks for psychosis act additively, and that the level of environmental risk combines synergistically with non-clinical developmental expression of psychosis to cause abnormal persistence and, eventually, need for care.

Visualizing Multivariate Dependencies with Association Chain Graphs

In a recent paper, a new type of graph to visualize the results from graphical models was proposed. Association chain graphs (ACGs) provide a richer visualization than conventional graphs (directed acyclic and recursive regression graphs) if the data can be described with only a small number of parameters. ACGs display not only which associations reach statistical significance, but also the magnitude of associations (confidence intervals for statistical main effects) as the contrast color to the background color of the graph. In this paper, the ACG visualization is extended especially for the case where all variables are binary by illustrating their relative frequencies. This shows the degrees of associations not only on the individual (as expressed by odds ratios or other indexes of association) but also on the community level. We applied the approach to an extensive example of birth and childhood factors for the onset of affective mental disorders using data from the EDSP (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology) Study.

The Accuracy of Prevalence Estimations for Suicide Attempts. How Reliably Do Adolescents and Young Adults Report Their Suicide Attempts?

This study explores the accuracy of prevalence estimations for suicide attempts. Data came from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) Study, a prospective community study (mean follow-up period was 42 months) of 3,021 respondents aged 14 to 24 years at the outset of the study. Suicide attempters are at least 1.6 times more likely to drop out than subjects with no suicide attempts and suicidal ideas. A total of 8% of all suicide attempters answered in the negative the depression-related gate questions of all surveys. One-third of all baseline suicide attempters did not report their suicide attempt again at the four years later assessment. In particular, 80% of all nonreporters were female, and almost 60% were aged 14–17 at baseline.

Clinical characteristics of Major Depressive Disorder run in families – A community study of 933 mothers and their children

The familial aggregation of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has been repeatedly demonstrated. Several studies have investigated associations between various clinical characteristics of MDD in probands and overall rates of MDD in relatives. Few studies, however, have considered the familial aggregation of clinical characteristics of MDD. The aim of the present report is to examine mother–offspring associations of a variety of clinical characteristics of MDD in a general population sample. Data were derived from baseline and 4-year-follow-up data of 933 adolescents and their biological mothers of the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, a prospective-longitudinal community study. MDD and its characteristics were assessed with the Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We found that children of mothers who had a lifetime history of severe MDD and high number of symptoms, high impairment and/or melancholia, revealed elevated odds of MDD regarding the same characteristics as their mothers (ORs between 5.2 and 13.9). The observed associations did not differ by the children’s sex. DSM-IV melancholia and severity as well as impairment were found to aggregate within families. This finding can be interpreted as a validation of the DSM-IV MDD severity subtypes as well as of the melancholic specifier. Severe and melancholic MDD reveal a considerable high degree of familiar aggregation making the search for mechanisms involved in the familiar transmission of these forms of MDD particularly promising.

Mania, Hypomania, and Suicidality: Findings from a Prospective Community Study

ABSTRACT We examined prospectively whether mania and hypomania are associated with an elevated risk for suicidality in a community sample of adolescents and young adults. Baseline and four-year follow-up data were used from the Early-Developmental-Stages-of-Psychopathology (EDSP) Study, a prospective longitudinal study of adolescents and young adults in Munich. Suicidal tendencies (ideation/attempts), mania, and hypomania were assessed using the standardized Munich-Composite-International-Diagnostic-Interview. At baseline, mania/hypomania was associated to a different degree with suicidality (Odds ratios [OR] range from 1.9 to 13.7). In the prospective analyses, the risk for subsequent incident suicidal ideation was increased in the presence of prior mania (38.0% vs. 14.1%; OR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.4–13.5). No associations could be found between prior mania/hypo-mania and incident suicide attempts. The prospective analyses revealed a remarkable relationship between preexisting mania and increased risk for subsequent suicidal ideation.

The use of weights to account for non-response and drop-out

Empirical studies in psychiatric research and other fields often show substantially high refusal and drop-out rates. Non-participation and drop-out may introduce a bias whose magnitude depends on how strongly its determinants are related to the respective parameter of interest. When most information is missing, the standard approach is to estimate each respondent's probability of participating and assign each respondent a weight that is inversely proportional to this probability. This paper contains a review of the major ideas and principles regarding the computation of statistical weights and the analysis of weighted data. A short software review for weighted data is provided and the use of statistical weights is illustrated through data from the EDSP (Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology) Study. The results show that disregarding different sampling and response probabilities can have a major impact on estimated odds ratios. The benefit of using statistical weights in reducing sampling bias should be balanced against increased variances in the weighted parameter estimates.

Family and high-risk studies of social anxiety disorder.

To present data on the role of familial factors in the etiology of social anxiety disorder. Findings presented from a family/high-risk study (the Yale Family Study) and a prospective community study of youth (the Munich Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) Study). The Yale Family Study demonstrated a substantial degree of familial aggregation of social anxiety disorder and specificity with respect to other anxiety subtypes among adult relatives. The Yale high-risk component and the EDSP Study confirm the association between parental and offspring social anxiety, but did not yield consistent evidence for an association between familial environmental factors and social anxiety. Future studies are needed to examine mechanisms for the specificity of social anxiety disorder aggregation, to identify vulnerability factors for its development and to pinpoint environmental conditions that may enhance or suppress expression of underlying vulnerability.

Maternal Smoking and Smoking in Adolescents: A Prospective Community Study of Adolescents and Their Mothers

The associations between maternal smoking and nicotine dependence and patterns of smoking and nicotine dependence in offspring were examined in a large community-based sample of adolescents. Data were derived from baseline and 4-year follow-up assessments of 938 respondents aged 14–17 years at the outset of the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, a prospective-longitudinal community study of adolescents and young adults and their parents respectively. Smoking and nicotine dependence in respondents were assessed using the Munich Composite International Diagnostic Interview (DSM-IV algorithms). Diagnostic information about smoking behavior in mothers was collected by independent direct diagnostic interviews with the mothers. In comparison to children of non- or occasionally smoking mothers, children of regularly smoking and nicotine-dependent mothers had higher probabilities of using tobacco as well as of developing nicotine dependence. For all ages under consideration, survival analyses revealed a higher cumulative lifetime risk of regular smoking and nicotine dependence among these children. Maternal smoking during pregnancy seems to represent an additional risk for these outcomes in children, specifically with regard to the risk of developing nicotine dependence. Associations were comparable for sons and daughters. Our findings show that maternal smoking predicts escalation of smoking, development of nicotine dependence, and stability of smoking behavior in children. Implications for specific intervention and prevention efforts are discussed.

Mental disorders in ecstasy users: a prospective-longitudinal investigation

Objectives: To investigate the relationship between ecstasy use and mental disorders in a representative sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Data for this investigation were drawn from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, an epidemiological–longitudinal study in which 14–24 year-olds were examined prospectively over a period of about 4 years. Results are based on N=2462 participants who completed the whole study period and for whom drug use behavior could be determined. Results: (1) Ecstasy users, compared with non-users, were at significantly increased risk of DSM-IV substance related disorders, including alcohol use disorders (52.6 vs. 15.6%; OR=5.6, 95% CI=3.8–8.1). Further, ecstasy users also had a higher risk of alcohol use disorders, when compared with users of other illicit substances (52.6 vs. 40.3%; OR=1.7, 95% CI=1.1–2.4). (2) Ecstasy users had significantly higher rates for almost all DSM-IV mental disorders examined when compared with non-users (any non-substance use disorder: 68.7 vs. 44.5%; OR=3.1, 95% CI=2.1–4.4) and compared with users of other illicit drugs (any non substance use disorder: 68.7 vs. 55.5%; OR=1.8, 95% CI=1.2–2.6). (3) Ecstasy users also reported significantly higher rates of prescription medicine use, though they did not use more medical services than non-drug users. (4) Analyses of temporal patterns of ecstasy use and disorder onset revealed that the first use of ecstasy was secondary to the onset of DSM-IV mental disorders in the majority of cases. Still, subjects with mental disorders at baseline also showed a significantly increased risk for initiation of ecstasy use during the 4-year follow-up period. Conclusions: Care should be taken in cross sectional studies in interpreting mental disorder signs and symptoms merely as a consequence of ecstasy use, as ecstasy use might be associated with the use of multiple substances, and onset of mental disorder is more likely to precede rather than to follow use of ecstasy and related substances.

The Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study (EDSP): A Methodological Update

The objectives of the community-based Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) Study are described along with a detailed account of the overall design, special design features, sample characteristics and instruments used. The EDSP employed a prospective-longitudinal design to study substance use and other mental disorders in a representative population sample of 3,021 subjects aged 14–24 years (birth cohorts 1970–1981) at ‘baseline’ – the outset of the study. Two follow-up investigations were conducted after the baseline investigation covering an overall period of 3–4 years. Special design features are the linkage with a family supplement (EDSP-FS) as well as neurobiological laboratory studies of high-risk subjects.

Somatoform syndromes and disordersin a representative population sample of adolescents and young adults: prevalence, comorbidity and impairments

Objective: To present prevalence findings of DSM-IV somatoform symptoms, syndromes and disorders in a representative sample of adolescents and young adults. Method: Data come from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, in which a total of 3021 respondents aged 14–24 years were assessed by the Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Results: Although specific DSM-IV somatoform disorders were relatively rare with a lifetime rate of 2.7%, a considerably higher proportion of respondents met criteria for clinically significant somatoform syndromes as defined by the Somatic Symptom Index SSI4, 6 (lifetime: 1.7%), as well as the undifferentiated somatoform/dissociative syndrome USDS (lifetime: 9.1%), resulting in an overall prevalence rate of 12.6%. Somatoform conditions are often comorbid with other mental disorders and were found to be associated with remarkable impairments and disabilities. Conclusions: Somatoform disorders and syndromes in young adults are frequent, impairing and often associated with the development of other mental disorders.

Somatoform syndromes and disordersin a representative population sample of adolescents and young adults: prevalence, comorbidity and impairments

To present prevalence findings of DSM-IV somatoform symptoms, syndromes and disorders in a representative sample of adolescents and young adults. Data come from the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, in which a total of 3021 respondents aged 14-24 years were assessed by the Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Although specific DSM-IV somatoform disorders were relatively rare with a lifetime rate of 2.7%, a considerably higher proportion of respondents met criteria for clinically significant somatoform syndromes as defined by the Somatic Symptom Index SSI4, 6 (lifetime: 1.7%), as well as the undifferentiated somatoform/dissociative syndrome USDS (lifetime: 9.1%), resulting in an overall prevalence rate of 12.6%. Somatoform conditions are often comorbid with other mental disorders and were found to be associated with remarkable impairments and disabilities. Somatoform disorders and syndromes in young adults are frequent, impairing and often associated with the development of other mental disorders.

Social fears and social phobia in a community sample of adolescents and young adults: prevalence, risk factors and co-morbidity.

The paper describes prevalence, impairments, patterns of co-morbidity and other correlates of DSM-IV social phobia in adolescents and young adults, separating generalized and non-generalized social phobics. Data are derived from the baseline investigation of the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study (EDSP), a prospective longitudinal community study of 3021 subjects, aged 14-24. Diagnoses were based on the DSM-IV algorithms of an expanded version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV/CIDI social phobia was 9.5% in females and 4.9% in males, with about one-third being classified as generalized social phobics. Twelve-month prevalence was only slightly lower, indicating considerable persistence. Respondents with generalized social phobia reported an earlier age of onset, higher symptom persistence, more co-morbidity, more severe impairments, higher treatment rates and indicated more frequently a parental history of mental disorders than respondents with non-generalized social phobia. History of DSM-IV social phobia was found to be quite prevalent in 14-24 year-olds. The generalized subtype of social phobia was found to have different correlates and to be considerably more persistent, impairing and co-morbid than non-generalized social phobia. Although generalized social phobics are more likely than non-generalized social phobics to receive mental health treatments, the treatment rate in this sample was low despite the fact that mental health services are free in Germany.

DSM-IV alcohol disorders in a general population sample of adolescents and young adults.

AIMS/DESIGNS: As part of the Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology (EDSP) study, results from the baseline cross-sectional assessment of DSM-IV alcohol disorders are presented for a sample of 14-24-year-olds residents in Munich, Germany (N = 3021; 71% response rate). Life-time prevalence of DSM-IV alcohol abuse (men: 15.1%; women; 4.5%) was found to be considerably more prevalent than dependence (men: 10.0%; women 2.5%) with few cases among respondents younger than 16 years of age; 12-month prevalence of abuse was 8.4% among men and 2.7% among women and of dependence was 7.3% among men and 2.2% among women. Results show that peak incidence of alcohol disorders occurs at 16-17 years of age and that early initiation into alcohol use is associated with an increasing odds of disorder onset, especially for dependence among women. Exploratory analysis of retrospectively assessed diagnostic stability show: a temporal progression to abuse and then dependence, that nearly half of past abuse diagnoses are in remission, abuse remission is more common than progression to dependence, and dependence is highly persistent, especially among women. Alcohol disorders are frequent in adolescent and young adults being characterized by transient abuse and less prevalent but persistent dependence syndromes. The relatively high prevalence of dependence diagnoses in this young population wit few years of alcohol use is discussed with regard to the clinical validity of DSM-IV criteria in adolescents and young adults.