Early COVID-19 Outbreak Research Articles

Data Fixing by Data Fitting: Estimating the Unreported Cases During the Early COVID-19 Outbreak in Hubei, China

Data Fixing by Data Fitting: Estimating the Unreported Cases During the Early COVID-19 Outbreak in Hubei, China

Spatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021)

Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant increase in deaths worldwide. This article presents a detailed analysis of the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across 569 regions in 25 European countries. We produce age and sex-specific excess mortality and present our results using Age-Standardised Years of Life Lost in 2020 and 2021, as well as the cumulative impact over the two pandemic years. Employing a forecasting approach based on CP-splines that considers regional diversity and provides confidence intervals, we find notable losses in 362 regions in 2020 (440 regions in 2021). Conversely, only seven regions experienced gains in 2020 (four regions in 2021). We also estimate that eight regions suffered losses exceeding 20 years of life per 1000 population in 2020, whereas this number increased to 75 regions in 2021. The contiguity of the regions investigated in our study also reveals the changing geographical patterns of the pandemic. While the highest excess mortality values were concentrated in the early COVID-19 outbreak areas during the initial pandemic year, a clear East-West gradient appeared in 2021, with regions of Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia experiencing the highest losses. This research underscores the importance of regional analyses for a nuanced comprehension of the pandemic’s impact.

Latent class analysis of post-traumatic disorder and post-traumatic growth among front-line healthcare professionals during the early outbreak of COVID-19

Latent class analysis of post-traumatic disorder and post-traumatic growth among front-line healthcare professionals during the early outbreak of COVID-19

Fair or biased? A corpus-based study of Australia’s early COVID-19 media representation of China

ABSTRACT Given the surge in xenophobia faced by Chinese communities during the pandemic, there is a pressing need to delve into the concealed ideologies within public discourse that fuel discrimination. Against this backdrop, this study employs Critical Discourse Analysis and Corpus Linguistics to scrutinise the discursive construction and communication of China’s image in Australian print media during the early outbreak of COVID-19. The analysis uncovered recurrent negative depictions of the Chinese government, associating it with authoritarianism and responsibility for the pandemic. In the context of blame attribution and racialisation of COVID-19 terms, a counter-narrative was observed in Australian newspapers, reflecting journalistic efforts to present a balanced perception of China and to challenge the prevailing racialisation and discrimination. Furthermore, the study revealed Australian media’s focus on economic consequences over human losses during the early outbreak of this pandemic. That underscores China’s role as Australia’s indispensable economic partner. This research contends that the depiction of China in Australian news discourses during the COVID-19 pandemic is intertwined with historical tensions, bilateral relations, and journalistic efforts to counter prevailing biases.

Leadership in a Crisis: A Social Network Perspective on Leader Brokerage Strategy, Intra-Organizational Communication Patterns, and Business Recovery

Catastrophic events can significantly disrupt businesses and, as a result, understanding how organizations adapt to a crisis is critical. Undeniably, leaders often play a crucial role in times of great uncertainty. Yet, it is unclear exactly how leaders can effectively guide organizations through a crisis. Extending theories of network brokerage and organizational adaptation research, we posit that compared to leaders creating structural holes in intra-organizational communication networks, those leaders bridging structural holes can build more effective communication networks with greater cohesion and higher efficiency. In turn, greater cohesion and higher efficiency subsequently drive organizational adaptation and business recovery in a multi-unit enterprise during the early outbreak of COVID-19. Our hypotheses are supported using multi-wave network surveys in 111 chain restaurants with over 3,000 employees. We demonstrate that, during a crisis, leaders can serve as a key architect to shape communication patterns to facilitate organizational adaptation to crises and drive business recovery with faster customer growth and continually decreasing personnel costs.

Rekindling Tradition in a Pandemic: A Qualitative Study of the Use of Traditional Herbal Mixtures Among High-Risk Groups During the Early Outbreak of COVID-19 in the South-South Region of Nigeria

On 27 February 2020, Nigeria reported its COVID-19 index case from Italy. The first 30 days saw the recording of 81 cases. In the first 60 days, this number rose to 1 337 for people over 50 and with serious underlying medical illnesses that were made worse by the COVID-19 infection. In this study, we investigated the use of traditional herbal mixtures by older people and people with chronic medical conditions in the prevention, management and control of COVID-19 in the South-South region of Nigeria, with Bayelsa State as a case study. Using purposive and snowball sampling techniques, we sampled and interviewed 21 participants, with interviews taking place at the health centres and the homes of older persons. The data were analysed thematically using content analysis with the aid of an Atlas.ti. The findings indicate that the majority of the participants used at least one traditional herbal mixture to prevent COVID-19 infection, and that the fear of contracting COVID-19 was the major factor for its use during the pandemic. The most commonly used herbal mixtures during the COVID-19 pandemic were a combination of “dogoyaro”, lime fruit and leaves, lemon, ginger, garlic, mango leaves and bark, pawpaw leaf and seed, soursop leaf, bitter leaf, scent leaf, lemongrass and moringa leaf. We concluded that older persons and people with underlying health conditions in particular relied on traditional herbal mixtures in the management and prevention of COVID-19 during the early outbreak of the pandemic in Nigeria.

Effects of information quantity and diversity on consumers under complex uncertainty

This paper presents a synthesized theoretical framework based on rational updating to predict the impact of information acquisition on consumers facing complex uncertainty. A larger number of information pieces obtained, and greater consistency across sources are found to increase a consumer's propensity of taking the optimal action. Hypotheses from the theoretical model are empirically validated using data from an online survey completed by 303 participants during one week in the early COVID-19 outbreak. Findings from this research have significant implications for government and business organizations in anticipating consumers' actions and developing communication strategies when operating under catastrophic events with complex uncertainties.

Identify successful restrictions in suppressing the early outbreak of COVID-19 in Arizona, United States: Interrupted time series analysis.

COVID-19 was responsible for many deaths and economic losses around the globe since its first case report. Governments implemented a variety of policies to combat the pandemic in order to protect their citizens and save lives. Early in 2020, the first cases were reported in Arizona State and continued to rise until the discovery of the vaccine in 2021. A variety of strategies and interventions to stop or decelerate the spread of the pandemic has been considered. It is recommended to define which strategy was successful for disease propagation prevention and could be used in further similar situations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of people's contact interventions strategies which were implemented in Arizona State and their effect on reducing the daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths. Their effect on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were evaluated using an interrupted time series analysis during the pandemic's first peaks to better understand the onward situation. Canceling the order of staying at home (95% CI, 1718.52 to 6218.79; p<0.001) and expiring large gatherings (95% CI, 1984.99 to 7060.26; p<0.001) on June 30 and August 17, 2020, respectively, had a significant effect on the pandemic, leading to the daily cases to grow rapidly. Moreover, canceling the stay at home orders led to an increase in the number of COVID-19 daily deaths by 67.68 cases (95% CI, 27.96 to 107.40; p<0.001) after about 21 days while prohibiting large gatherings significantly decreased 66.76 (95% CI: 20.56 to 112.96; p = 0.004) the number of daily deaths with about 21 days' lag. The results showed that strategies aimed at reducing people's contact with one another could successfully help fight the pandemic. Findings from this study provide important evidence to support state-level policies that require observance of social distancing by the general public for future pandemics.

Influenza-A mediated pre-existing immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2 could predict early COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

Influenza-A mediated pre-existing immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2 could predict early COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

The role of uncertainty, worry, and control in well-being: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak and pandemic in U.S. and China.

Uncertainty about the future often leads to worries about what the future will bring, which can have negative consequences for health and well-being. However, if worry can act as a motivator to promote efforts to prevent undesirable future outcomes, those negative consequences of worry may be mitigated. In this article, we apply a novel model of uncertainty, worry, and perceived control to predict psychological and physical well-being among four samples collected in China (Study 1; during the early COVID-19 outbreak in China) and the United States (Studies 2-4, during 4 weeks in May 2020, 4 weeks in November 2020, and cross-sectionally between April and November 2020). Grounded in the feeling-is-for-doing approach to emotions, we hypothesized (and found) that uncertainty about one's COVID-19 risk would predict greater worry about the virus and one's risk of contracting it, and that greater worry would in turn predict poorer well-being. We also hypothesized, and found somewhat mixed evidence, that perceptions of control over 1's COVID-19 risk moderated the relationship between worry and well-being such that worry was related to diminished well-being when people felt they lacked control over their risk for contracting the virus. This study is one of the first to demonstrate an indirect path from uncertainty to well-being via worry and to demonstrate the role of control in moderating whether uncertainty and worry manifest in poor well-being. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

The early effect of COVID-19 on dental infections by neuroimaging in the emergency department setting

ObjectivesIn early 2020, at COVID-19's onset in the United States, the American Dental Association recommended postponing elective dental procedures to minimize viral spread. Subsequently, concerns arose that this could result in increased dental infections and resultant emergency department visits. This study quantifies the number and severity of dental infections at the onset of the early COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 in the Northeast United States resulting in emergency room visits and radiographic imaging compared to 2017–2019 with an analysis of geographic population characteristics. MethodsCross-sectional head and neck imaging performed at an East Coast hospital system was retrospectively reviewed for dental infections from March 2020 through December 2020, and compared to prior years 2017–2019. Inclusion criteria included radiology reporting of a dental infection, ranging in severity. Electronic medical records (EMR) and imaging reports were queried for patient characteristics and dental findings. ResultsThere were 735 confirmed imaging reports of odontogenic infections. There was a significant increase in imaging reporting of odontogenic infections in the post-shutdown period. These were more frequently early-type infections, involved a higher proportion of male and non-white patients, and the patients were more often from disadvantaged zip codes when compared with prior years. ConclusionsThese findings highlight the varying impact of outpatient dental office closures on different socioeconomic groups in the setting of a pandemic. Potential implications include increased morbidity and mortality for patients, as well as increased cost and resource allocations for the healthcare system.

Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios (lay summary)

Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios (lay summary)

Supply chain disruption recovery in the evolving crisis—Evidence from the early COVID-19 outbreak in China

The speed of recovery from supply chain disruption has been identified as the predominant factor in building a resilient supply chain. However, COVID-19 as an example of an evolving crisis may challenge this assumption. Infection risk concerns may influence production resumption decision-making because any incidents of infection may lead to further shutdowns of production lines and undermine firms’ long-term cash flows. Sampling 244 production resumption announcements by Chinese manufacturers in the early COVID-19 crisis (February–March 2020), our analysis shows that, generally, investors react positively to production resumptions. However, investors perceived the earlier production resumptions were higher risk (indicated by declined stock price). Such concerns were exacerbated by more locally confirmed cases of COVID-19 but were less salient for manufacturers with high debts (liquidity pressure). This study calls for a reassessment of the current disruption management mindset in response to new evolving crises (e.g., COVID-19) and provides theoretical, practical, and policy implications for building resilient supply chains.

Taiwanese Media reporting COVID-19 disinformation crisis: A mixed-method study of technological epidemic prevention regarding health personal data, privacy and security issues

&lt;p&gt;本混合法研究檢視2020年初臺灣媒體報導新冠肺炎疫情假訊息內容，分析數位防疫之個資、隱私與資安議題呈現趨勢及新聞框架運用。大數據分析顯示：有別於西方報導，臺灣疫情假訊息新聞甚少關注防疫個資與隱私，對資安議題較為重視。公衛危機新聞框架內容分析結果發現：科技防疫報導最常用行動框架，後果與保證框架次之，負面框架（衝突與不確定）較少。個資、隱私和資安報導，及大部分新聞框架選擇，隨著疫情時期變化，呈現顯著性差異。&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As COVID-19 was the first global pandemic of the digital age, many countries utilized information technologies and big data as technological epidemic prevention measures which led to controversies regarding personal data misuse, privacy invasion, and security risks. The mixed-method study used big data and content analysis to examine Taiwanese news reports related to personal data, privacy, and security issues in early COVID-19 outbreak. In contrast to Western studies, the results revealed that Taiwanese media reports, under infodemic influences, emphasized the importance of data security over that of protecting personal data and data privacy. Based on news framing of public health crisis, content analysis results showed the dominant use of action framing was followed by consequence and assurance framing, whereas negative framing (conflict and uncertainty) was rarely employed. The news reports about personal data, privacy, and security found statistical differences among three epidemic periods, as did their selection of news framing.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: Parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India

A deterministic model with testing of infected individuals has been proposed to investigate the potential consequences of the impact of testing strategy. The model exhibits global dynamics concerning the disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium depending on the basic reproduction number when the recruitment of infected individuals is zero; otherwise, the model does not have a disease-free equilibrium, and disease never dies out in the community. Model parameters have been estimated using the maximum likelihood method with respect to the data of early COVID-19 outbreak in India. The practical identifiability analysis shows that the model parameters are estimated uniquely. The consequences of the testing rate for the weekly new cases of early COVID-19 data in India tell that if the testing rate is increased by 20% and 30% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 37.63% and 52.90%; and it also delayed the peak time by four and fourteen weeks, respectively. Similar findings are obtained for the testing efficacy that if it is increased by 12.67% from its baseline value, the weekly new cases at the peak are decreased by 59.05% and delayed the peak by 15 weeks. Therefore, a higher testing rate and efficacy reduce the disease burden by tumbling the new cases, representing a real scenario. It is also obtained that the testing rate and efficacy reduce the epidemic’s severity by increasing the final size of the susceptible population. The testing rate is found more significant if testing efficacy is high. Global sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) determine the key parameters that must be targeted to worsen/contain the epidemic.

The Effect of Built Environment on Urban Park Visits during the Early Outbreak of COVID-19

During the COVID-19 early outbreak, the effects of built environment on individuals’ urban park visitation are understudied. We employed structural equation modeling to disentangle such complex relationships and investigate the impacts over time at the census tract level across the 100 largest American cities. The results show that density and design both explain park visitation, while only the dimension of density has major influences on the distance to urban parks.

‘You have to trust their word’: transmasculine experiences with sex partners and safety during the early COVID-19 outbreak

The early months of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic exacerbated health disparities for vulnerable populations, including transgender (trans) communities, creating unique challenges for navigating sex and dating. This paper aims to expand upon the current literature regarding transmasculine populations by capturing their lived experiences during this critical time. We interviewed 20 assigned female sex at birth (AFAB) adults of the transmasculine spectrum - men, nonbinary, and transmasculine individuals - about their social and sexual experiences in the USA in May and June 2020. Transcripts were analysed using an inductive thematic approach. We found that sex drive decreased and uncertainty about health risks increased. Some participants found alternate ways to date and hook-up that reduced their COVID-19 risk, such as engaging in online sex (e.g. sexting, dating apps). Others expressed discomfort using virtual platforms for both personal/work and sexual lives, along with nuanced feelings around being objectified, compared to pornography, and fetishised as trans bodies. COVID-related shutdowns of queer spaces also amplified pre-existing concerns about interpersonal safety and rejection. When seeking new partners, participants sought behavioural characteristics that instilled trust. Future public health communications can take advantage of safety and sexual health strategies already present in trans communities to bolster wellbeing in trans lives.

The association of the COVID-19 outbreak with in-hospital mortality: A single-centre study from Indonesia

ObjectiveThe early outbreak period of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has affected the emergency department (ED) and hospital services in many countries. This study aimed to investigate the association between COVID-19 outbreak and in-hospital mortality in Jakarta, Indonesia. MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted in a single-centre referral hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia. Data were collected between May and October 2020. All patients who visited the ED and required inpatient care during the early COVID-19 outbreak period at the study location (March to April 2020) were included in the exposure group. All patients who visited the ED and required inpatient care during the non-outbreak period (March to April 2019) were included in the non-exposure group. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome, whereas other variables, such as sex, age, triage categories, trauma cases, referral cases, and ED length of stay (LOS), were measured to identify confounding and effect modifications. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess this association. ResultsA total of 2,808 patients during the outbreak period and 2,423 patients during the non-outbreak period participated in the study. The odds of in-hospital mortality increased during the outbreak period compared to that during the non-outbreak period (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95%CI 1.04–1.91; p = 0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, triage categories, trauma case, ED LOS, and interaction between the outbreak period and ED LOS. ConclusionCOVID-19 outbreaks have been associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in referral hospitals in Jakarta, Indonesia.

A model for the early COVID-19 outbreak in China with case detection and behavioural change

We investigate a model of the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic comprising undetected infected individuals as well as behavioural change towards the use of self-protection measures. The model is fitted to China data reported between 22 January and 29 June 2020. Using fitting results, we then consider model responses to varying screening intensities.

Protective and Overprotective Behaviors against COVID-19 Outbreak: Media Impact and Mediating Roles of Institutional Trust and Anxiety.

This study aims to explore how pandemic-related media use relates to both protective and overprotective behaviors and to probe the underlying mechanisms. The data were collected online during the early outbreak of COVID-19 in China, and a total of 1118 valid cases, which covered the 30 provincial administrative divisions in mainland China, were collected. Results showed that official government media use was positively associated with protective behaviors and institutional trust was an important mediator. Commercial media use was also found to be positively associated with overprotective behavior, and anxiety mediated this relationship. Findings of this study suggested that different media sources could play completely different roles. Institutional trust in government institutions and medical care systems were equally critical in translating the media effect into public compliance with the preventive measures advocated by the relevant departments. Media outlets and practitioners should also be responsible in order to avoid causing unnecessary anxiety among the public so as to reduce irrational overprotective behaviors.