In the Bay of Fundy, American lobster (Homarus americanus) abundance has soared since the early 1990s, and predators have declined, either of which could have caused juvenile lobster populations in preferred hard-bottom habitat to expand onto less-protective mud bottom. To investigate whether juvenile lobsters have increased use of mud bottom, we used SCUBA surveys (1989-2021) in Maces Bay and Seal Cove, in the Bay of Fundy. Whereas the 1990s surveys found no juveniles on mud at either site (though they were present on hard bottom), in subsequent decades, juveniles inhabited mud burrows at densities of 0.00039 m-2 to 0.0081 m-2. In Maces Bay, mud occupancy occurred after juvenile density increases on hard bottom, but evidence was mixed as to whether increased competition within hard-bottom habitat drove this change. Concurrent cod, haddock, hake, and wolffish declines suggest reduced predation also increased occupancy and survival on mud. Although it supports low juvenile densities, mud habitat may contribute to recruitment given its prevalence, particularly as warming seas allow lobster recruitment into cooler, deeper water over mud bottom.
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