Regional Growth Dynamics Research Articles

The spatial dimension of ageing and growth in European regions

AbstractThis study aims to tackle the potential effects of population ageing on regional growth dynamics in the EU. We collected information at a NUTS2 level for EU countries from the years 2000 to 2020 to understand the extent to which the ageing of EU society might impact the EU convergence process. Our results emphasize that the ageing of EU society does not seem to harm the possibility of regional economic growth if we think that immigrants can fill openings in local labour markets (left by retired persons), as well as new jobs stemming from new services needed by retired persons (mostly in health and daily care). Our outcomes also stress the relevance of considering the spatial dimension of the analysis to detect the place-based dimension of this dynamic and, hence, the need for tailored policies.

Public debt, investment and economic growth dynamics: Do geographical proximity and spatial spillover effects matter?

This study employed an innovative spatial econometrics approach to analyze the spillover effects of foreign public debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) on regional economic growth dynamics of Eastern Africa. Specifically, we utilize Spatial Durbin Fixed Effect (SDM-FE) Model, drawing on balanced panel data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 1992–2019. This study contributes by utilizing a spatial weight matrix and investigating its interactions with economic growth and various other macro-regional factors, thereby unveiling the presence of spatial spillover effects and the impact of geographical proximity of countries within the region. Our results indicate that foreign public debt, FDI, gross fixed capital formation, human capital development, inflation, and government expenditure, significantly have spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth. Additionally, the results underscore the presence of regional growth divergence and provide further evidence of substantial regional spatial dependence in economic growth. Based on these outcomes, it is evident that foreign public debt has a negative impact on economic growth, which is consistent with the debt overhang theory and the crowding-out hypothesis. Moreover, the foreign public debt and regional growth policies should be devised considering the geographical interconnectedness between countries in the region, as the research output has revealed the impacts of growth and debt spillovers among the countries studied. Policies that prioritize these objectives would promote long-term regional economic growth and prevent the effects of excessive foreign public debt by creating a favorable macroeconomic climate.

DETERMINASI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT (STUDI KOMMPARASI PEMERINTAH DAERAH KOTA DAN KABUPATEN

Economic disparity among regions is a pivotal concern for equitable development. In West Java, Indonesia's most populous province, this issue is accentuated as several city and regency areas persistently lag in growth rates when compared to the provincial average. This study is dedicated to uncovering the determinants that may expedite the socioeconomic advancement of the most impoverished areas within the province over a significant period, from 2012 to 2021. Utilizing panel data regression analysis, this research meticulously examines a series of potential factors that could influence regional economic performance. The quantitative data for this comprehensive analysis were sourced from two authoritative Indonesian bodies: the Central Agency on Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik - BPS) and the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (Direktorat Jenderal Perimbangan Keuangan - DJPK). These datasets provide a robust foundation for assessing the fiscal, demographic, and economic variables that potentially contribute to the regional growth dynamics.

Regional growth rates and growth synchronicity between two populations of Arctica islandica in the western Mid-Atlantic (US)

Arctica islandica supports an important fishery in the US Mid-Atlantic. This species is extremely slow growing and long-lived, characteristics that may make this species particularly vulnerable to fishing pressure and climate change. Understanding regional growth dynamics over time and growth responses to changing environments will improve current fishery assessments to maintain the sustainability of this stock. Two populations of A. islandica from Georges Bank and off Long Island on the US continental shelf with observed ages between 17 and 310 y were evaluated for age-at-length relationships and growth trends over time. Growth rates have been increasing at Georges Bank and Long Island since the 1700s. Growth rates at Long Island have been accelerating and have exceeded those at Georges Bank since the 1980s. Growth rates from this study support previous research that this species is sexually dimorphic, and females grow faster than males within a population post-maturation. Positive growth index periods at both sites may be synchronous with 32-y harmonics of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. A modification to the traditional Tanaka growth model that included a growth term to further increase growth at old age proved the best-fit growth model to not only each population, but also to birth-year cohorts. Both the classic and modified Tanaka models used in this study are vast improvements over the von Bertalanffy models currently applied to this species in assessment models and population dynamics models. Increasing growth rates over time resulted in fewer years of reproduction prior to recruiting to the fishery as A. islandica are reaching fishery size in an increasingly short period of time. The impact that reduced years of reproduction has on A. islandica population resiliency is yet unknown.

FILM COMMISSION MODEL AS A STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE TAMPICO-MEXICO METROPOLITAN AREA

This article presents a Film Commission (FC) model as an alternative with the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Metropolitan Area of Tampico, Mexico (MAT). The proposal is theoretically based on approaches to economic development with a regional approach and the potential impact of film commissions based on different international studies. The model is the product of a questionnaire made up of the opinion of eight experts who have worked closely with these projects in Mexico, applied through in-depth interviews with 69 individuals considered as living or social forces of the region, analyzing five dimensions: audiovisual infrastructure, service infrastructure, human and material resources, monumental heritage and the existing possibilities, according to the opinion of the public and private sectors. Based on the results, stakeholders are interested and consider that creating a FC would be very positive for the MAT because it would boost audiovisual infrastructure, economic growth, visibility and image improvement, induced tourism, and positioning within international markets. Furthermore, it would promote productive linkages“forwar” and“backward” contributing to consolidating regional growth and development dynamics. Beyond the academic aspect, our work can contribute to the public policy agenda, given that the proposed model is not part of current official development policies.

Diverging States but Converging Districts? Resolving the Puzzle of Regional Growth Dynamics in India

Diverging States but Converging Districts? Resolving the Puzzle of Regional Growth Dynamics in India

Investigating the local socio-spatial integration of the Belval knowledge district into Esch/Alzette: A dissimilarity-based approach

The social and spatial integration of knowledge-related urban development projects into their urban environment is seen by policymakers as a necessity to unlock local and regional growth dynamics and regeneration. However, the understanding of socio-spatial integration, and how it can be scientifically analysed and interpreted at a local scale remains somewhat vague when the concept is not approached in its totality and measured by unidimensional indicators. The current article first proposes a holistic and multidimensional analytical framework to measure and analyse the socio-spatial integration of knowledge districts. Then, it focuses on one specific dimension – the structural dissimilarities between territories – and suggests an indicator-based multivariate analysis that is applied to the case of Belval, in Esch/Alzette (Luxembourg). Our findings for the Belval case study show that the structural dissimilarities between knowledge districts and adjacent neighbourhoods are mainly due to the young, international and professional profile of the population this place attracts, while differentials in terms of socio-economic status are much less significant than expected. In other words, the specificity of this knowledge district lies in the educational and migratory backgrounds of its inhabitants, rather than in their economic wealth. Accordingly, we call for a more nuanced debate concerning the urban integration of knowledge districts.

Risk Management in the Development of a Regional Drinking Water Supply System

Clean water services are a vital need that must be provided to support the dynamics of regional growth. Infrastructure development, such as the provision of drinking water, is considered as one of the policy instruments for economic development, marked by the development of industries, settlements, regional expansion and the increasing need for drinking water. The checklist technique was used by researchers to obtain information from respondents about the application or implementation of risk management. The objective of this research is to identify risk management in the development of the Pasigala Regional Drinking Water Supply System (SPAM), Central Sulawesi Province. This type of research is a case study. This checklist consists of three parts, each of which is used to obtain data on risk identification, risk analysis, and risk treatment. From the analysis, 6 risks fall into the high category, these risks are that the quality of drinking water is not as expected, the Water Treatment Plant (WTP) has never functioned according to the planned capacity, the raw water transmission pipe is not in accordance with the minimum standard / technical specifications, the design raw water production units that have not been able to overcome turbidity due to sedimentation, natural disasters in the location area, and damage to the ecosystem around water sources.

The Dynamics of Regional Economic Growth and the Priorities of US Regional Economic Policy

Stimulation of the pace and formation of the structure of regional economic growth is invariably one of the fundamental goals of the regional economic policy pursued by the subjects of the federal state. In the context of the cyclical development of regional economic systems and the beginning of the regionalization of the economy of the world leader – the United States of America - the problem of spatial and temporal differentiation of the choice of priorities to stimulate regional economic growth is becoming more urgent. Using the methods of regression modeling and economic statistics, an analysis was made of the influence of the main instruments of regional economic policy on the dynamics of regional economic growth over a long period of time 1961–2020 and forecast up to 2030. The obtained results revealed spatial asymmetries in the combination of the use of fiscal instruments and structural investment measures to regulate economic growth, associated with the level of development of subregions and individual states of the country. The transfer of the investment burden to stimulate regional economic growth in times of crisis to the end consumer is noted. The article substantiates the increasing role of such an instrument of regional policy as the selective regulation of aggregate regional export in the long term, indicating the transition from globalization to regionalization of the development of the economic systems of the states and largest municipalities of the United States to maintain the pace of regional economic growth while changing its structure.

Absolute and benchmarked economic voting. A subnational perspective on a decade of elections in Southern Europe

ABSTRACT The article analyses the 15 elections that took place between 2010 and 2019 in four South European countries – Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – through the lenses of the retrospective vote theory. The large within-country variation of economic conditions justifies the adoption of an original subnational perspective, while the explicit test of alternative economic quantities and horizons provides a more credible assessment of voters’ behaviours. Besides offering a taxonomy of local retrospective voting, the research found that citizens assessed the incumbents against regional unemployment levels and national growth dynamics, further benchmarking the local economic conditions against their past performances. These results give credit to the idea that the South European electorate shares similar references in assessing the economic competences of incumbent governments.

МОДЕРНИЗИРОВАННАЯ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННАЯ ФУНКЦИЯ КОББА–ДУГЛАСА КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ВЛИЯНИЯ ЦИФРОВОЙ ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ НА ЭКОНОМИКУ РЕГИОНА

The purpose of the article is to develop tools for diagnosing the economic dynamics of regional socio-economic systems in the conditions of digitalization of economic relations on the basis of the modernized Cobb–Douglas production function. Much attention is given to methodological approaches to the formalized assessment of the impact of the digital transformation of the region on the parameters and prospects of its economic growth. The author draws attention to models determining the degree of influence of the main production factors (labor, capital, digital transformation) on the dynamics of gross regional product growth of the studied group of regions. Key patterns of the influence of digitalization of regional socio-economic systems of Volga Federal District on regional economic dynamics are revealed. It is stressed that the obtained results form the basis for the development of the most effective and adaptive directions of intensification of economic growth in the regions in accordance with the concept of diffusion of digital technologies into the economic environment. As a result, the author draws conclusions that the developed approach is advisable to use when conducting research in the field of assessing current and prospective parameters of the development of regional socio-economic systems in the new conditions of globalization and digitalization.

Environmental Dynamics of the Ribbon-Like Pine Forests in the Parklands of North Kazakhstan

The ribbon-like pine forests of North Kazakhstan represent the principal territorial intrazonal and azonal biotopes. Integrated bio-geographic studies of the pine forests’ status were performed in the Beskaragai and Chaldai Nature Reserves in the Pri-Irtysh River basin within, at present, the climate–change most susceptible transitional parkland-steppe zone of Central Asia, adjoining the West Siberian Lowland. The investigations followed the regional topographic gradient with a series of mapped sites characterizing the spatial relief patterns of the pristine forest distribution and the associated phytocenoses. The results revealed marked natural arboreal cover restoration differences between the geographically close upland and lowland forest ecosystems. The regional tree growth dynamics show the varying intensity of the pine seedlings’ succession, the tree stands’ biomass productivity and the environmental stability, weakened by the extreme continentality and progressing aridification along with adverse anthropogenic ecological impacts. The specific geomorphic, soil and hydrological conditions are the principal determining factors. The more vital plain and lowland pine forests host the floristically richer fescue-dominated communities compared to the more fragile and precipitation-poorer upland pine settings. The latter forest ecosystems display a higher vulnerability to the current climate change, generating tree drying, forest fires, and to modern human activities such as logging, herding and recreation. The research conclusions provide new insights on the natural ribbon-like pine forests’ sustainability and adaptation to the ongoing continental warming triggering fundamental environmental transformations in Central Asia’s parklands.

Firing on all cylinders: Decomposing regional growth dynamics in South Africa

AbstractThe poor performance of the South African economy has been widely analysed, yet this disguises considerable internal variation, both between sectors and regions. Most disaggregated analysis focuses on national industry trends and neglects the role of geography. We undertake a shift‐share analysis with multifactor partitioning to decompose the growth performance of provinces into nationwide industry and region‐specific (or ‘place‐based’) shares between 1995 and 2018. The main finding is that place‐based effects explain as much of the variation in growth as nationwide industry effects in most provinces. This implies that the economic capabilities of each region need careful consideration as part of national growth strategies and reforms.

The economic geography of infrastructure in Asia: The role of institutions and regional integration

We examine the spillover effects of infrastructure on economic growth after controlling institutions and regional integration. We develop an augmented endogenous growth model to test the complementarity between proximate factors and infrastructure to explain regional growth dynamics. We build a multidimensional infrastructure index, capturing quantitative and qualitative dimensions using the Alkire-Foster method. The empirical analysis is based on 35 Asian economies during the 2006–2016 period using the spatial Durbin panel model. The results show that infrastructures have a positive and significant effect, both direct and spillover, on regional development. The quality of the infrastructure has a relatively higher direct impact, and the quantity has a relatively high spillover effect. These results show that the amount of infrastructure is more beneficial for the regions. On the contrary, quality is more fruitful for the country. Furthermore, the analysis confirms the complementarity of infrastructure with institutions and regional integration, which implies that these factors act as a stimulus to improve the spillover effects of the infrastructure. This analysis supports infrastructure development policies to achieve sustained economic growth in Asia. Infrastructure is a “big push” for these economies to improve their economic status and eliminate poverty. The complementarity of institutions and regional integration requires these factors to be considered in planning infrastructure development policies, particularly for economic corridors.

Economic Convergence in EU NUTS 3 Regions: A Spatial Econometric Perspective

The topic of economic convergence is still crucial in the European Union (EU) as promoting regional growth and the reduction of disparities remains a key objective. In this paper we investigate development and economic growth across EU regions. Particular attention is given to σ-convergence and β-convergence. These analyses are carried out for regional units corresponding to the third level of the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) classification. Focusing on a refined geographical scale could offer a detailed picture of the regional growth dynamics within the EU. Additionally, we use a spatial augmented version of the conditional β-convergence model to take into account the spatial interdependencies among regions. Findings shed light on the impact of spatial interaction effects and on the need of territorial policies to achieve convergence in the EU. This aspect highlights how coordinating the regional development policies between regions is pivotal to achieve economic, as well as social and political stability within the EU.

Synchronization of regional growth dynamics in China

In this paper, we document significant evidence of time-varying synchronization of the regional growth dynamics within China. Using a dynamic factor model extended with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility, we observe a substantial amount of time variations in the loading parameters of the common factor– implying that the exposure of regional growth to the common national factor varies substantially. We find that the correlation in cross-region economic growth performance increased during the recent global recession and declined post-recession, albeit still at a higher level than before 2008. While the large degree of synchronization of regional growth dynamics permits the central government or central bank to implement a uniform fiscal or monetary policy, this concurrently reduces China's ability to stymie the propagation of external shocks and instead increases systemic risks across regions.

Contractionary Fiscal Policy, Public Investment and Regional Growth Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis

Contractionary Fiscal Policy, Public Investment and Regional Growth Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis

Global Markets and the Role of Geographical Proximity in Mexico's Employment Growth

AbstractIn the context of greater economic integration with global markets and structural economic reforms, this paper analyses regional and sectoral employment growth dynamics in Mexican states between 2004 and 2014. The methodology is based on spatial shift‐share analysis that explicitly considers interregional interactions in employment while assessing potential spillover effects arising from spatial interactions among states and industrial sectors. The results suggest a competitive effect from some industries—such as those related to science and specialized suppliers, intensive scale industries and dominated providers—which led to the formation of industrial corridors of neighboring states that connect the central region with the northeast region of the country. It was also found that proximity to states such as Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla has positively influenced neighboring states in terms of employment growth rates. The results also support the argument of some sort of de‐concentration of economic activity in the capital, Mexico City, toward neighboring states.

Influence of Foreign Economic Activity on the Economic Growth of Russian Regions

A study of the influence of foreign trade on economic growth is one of controversial research issues. The economy of Russia is based on close interactions with foreign markets, which are sources of its growth. Russia has a large number of regional economies, which are disproportionately connected with foreign markets. The regional specificity may correct significantly a contribution of foreign trade interactions to the economic growth of Russia. The existing research of the influence of foreign trade on the economic growth of Russian regions are episodic and outdated. The main purpose of the article is to assess the long-term impact of foreign trade on the economic growth of Russian regions in a decade (2007–2016). The methodology of the research is based on the neoclassical model of economic growth expanded by adding the parameters of the foreign trade interactions estimated by regions in stable and current prices. The hypothesis of a long-term positive impact of exports and imports on the Russian regions’ economic growth for all model specifications was confirmed. The consideration of regional specificity has given a more exact assessment of the cumulative contribution of regions to economic growth if the foreign trade relations are compared with the aggregated models. We have revealed that indicators of foreign trade, in general, made a positive contribution to economic growth, compensating negative impact of other factors. The paper shows the dependence of the dynamics of regional economic growth on the current volatility of export and import. We suppose that the generally positive impact of foreign trade on economic growth is corrected by regions, in which production and consumption are subsidized within the existing budgetary process. The tendency of the positive influence of export on economic growth is underestimated due to the regions delivering their production mostly to the domestic market. The tendency of the positive influence of import on economic growth is underestimated due to the regions where there are no largest logistic centres and no interaction with foreign countries. These estimates can be a confirmation of the need to intensify the policy of trade openness with the purpose of accelerating the Russian regional economy.

Regional Growth Dynamics in the Service Sector: The Determinants of Employment Change in UK Regions, 1971–2005

AbstractThere is a need to better understand the dynamics relating to the evolving economic structure of regions, in particular factors concerning deindustrialisation and the growth of services. In order to unpick the dynamics relating to contemporary regional evolution, this paper examines regional employment in the UK's services sectors from 1971 to 2005. The analysis utilises the statistical technique of multi‐factor partitioning to examine the evolutionary dynamics of employment change in the UK service sector. Overall, differing growth trajectories in services employment across regions appear to be the result of the different underlying industrial structures observed within the regions themselves. The findings indicate that the industrial structure of a region has a significant influence on employment change in services, with related variety being of greater consequence than specialisation. This suggests that diversity, or urbanisation, effects have a greater influence than specialisation effects on “lighter” industries than “heavier” industries. Spatio‐temporal variations within the development of services are evident in the analysis, and there is evidence of convergence across the regions for all sub‐sectors examined. It concludes that in an increasingly services‐dominated economy, diversity and related variety have some weight in explaining regional development paths.