Rabies Dynamics Research Articles

Study of fractional order rabies transmission model via Atangana–Baleanu derivative

In this work, we aim at disentangling the theoretical contribution through mathematical modeling approach to advance the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in livestock population. A fractional order model of rabies, using Atangana–Baleanu fractional operator is created. The analysis of suggested system and its application are both conducted. The capacity of proposed model to forecast the disease can help researchers and livestock health care agencies to take preventive actions.

Impact of vaccination and sterilization on the transmission dynamics of rabies

Impact of vaccination and sterilization on the transmission dynamics of rabies

Modeling Rabies Dynamics: The Impact of Vaccination and Infectious Immigrants on Public Health

Public health is still seriously threatened by rabies in many parts of the world, particularly in poorer nations. In order to address this issue, this work suggests an equation describing the mechanisms of rabies transmission between animals, taking into account infectious immigrants and vaccination as possible preventive measures. The next-generation matrix (NGM) Method method was used to calculate the effective reproduction number (R0). Using the Routh-Hurwitz Criterion, a disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) was discovered and It was demonstrated to have local asymptotic stability if (R0 < 1), and unstable in every other case. Additionally, DFE was discovered to be quadratic Lyapunov stable and globally asymptotically stable. Additionally, the model parameters’ sensitivity analysis on the (R0) was carried out using the central manifold theory for the bifurcation analysis, and the analysis’s normalized forward sensitivity index method. MATLAB software was utilized to do numerical analysis for simulation analysis. The findings of the simulated data showed that a higher vaccination rate and fewer infectious immigrants would slow the development of the decline, as shown visually.

RABIES: UNITING FOR ONE HEALTH - PROTECTING HUMANS AND ANIMALS TOGETHER

This review article elucidates the intricate dynamics of rabies and its effects in the context of a persistent global threat using the One Health approach. This article emphasizes the inescapable link between human, animal, and environmental health by clarifying the complex mechanisms of rabies transmission, elaborating on its symptoms and course, and demonstrating its global occurrence and impact. This article highlights the crucial importance of zoonotic diseases, notably the reservoir role of animals in rabies transmission, and embraces the idea of One Health, which recognizes the symbiotic interactions between these domains. This study highlights the significance of unified control and surveillance systems from a strategic perspective. This emphasizes the value of vaccination as a cornerstone for safeguarding both human and animal populations. Additionally, it highlights the potential of interdisciplinary One Health initiatives to eradicate rabies through successful case studies. This article sheds light on the crucial role of international organizations, the significance of policy advocacy, strict regulation, and international cooperation while addressing socioeconomic consequences, implementation challenges, and the goals of a rabies-free world. Interdisciplinary research has emerged as a catalyst to develop innovative prevention and control methods that are strengthened by technology, shared knowledge, and resilient strategies to combat the effects of climate change and emerging diseases. Public engagement, education, and community empowerment should be implemented to establish a proactive approach to rabies prevention. It concludes with a loud appeal for coordinated One Health initiatives to build a safer future in the face of this ongoing issue.

Mathematical model to assess the impact of contact rate and environment factor on transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs

This paper presents a mathematical model to understand how rabies spreads among humans, free-range, and domestic dogs. By analyzing the model, we discovered that there are equilibrium points representing both disease-free and endemic states. We calculated the basic reproduction number, R0 using the next generation matrix method. When R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable, whereas when R0≥1, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. To identify the most influential parameters in disease transmission, we used the normalized forward sensitivity index. The simulations revealed that the contact rates between the infectious agent and humans, free-range dogs, and domestic dogs, have the most significant impact on rabies transmission. The study also examines how periodic changes in transmission rates affect the disease dynamics, emphasizing the importance of transmission frequency and amplitude on the patterns observed in rabies spread. To reduce disease sensitivity, one should prioritize effective disease control measures that focus on keeping both free-range and domestic dogs indoors. This is a crucial factor in preventing the spread of disease and should be implemented as a primary disease control measure.

Dynamics of Rabies Transmission Model in Human and Dog Populations with Time Delay

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease caused by a virus through bites or saliva of an infected animal. Dogs are the main reservoir of Rabies and are responsible for most Human cases worldwide. In this research, a delay differential equations model for assessing the effects of controls and time delay as an incubation period on the transmission dynamics of Rabies in human and dog populations is formulated and analyzed. Basic properties of the model as par theories of delay differential equations are established, and the model is well-posed mathematically and biologically. Analysis of the model shows that there is a locally and globally asymptotically stable rabies-free equilibrium whenever the epidemiological threshold (the control reproduction number,) is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium point when the control reproduction number, exceeds unity. Time delay is found to have an influence on the endemicity of rabies. Treatment and Vaccination of humans and dogs, coupled with an annual crop of puppies, are imposed to curtail the spread of Rabies in the populations. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the theoretical results and control strategies. Delay differential equations, Effective reproduction number, Equilibria, Rabies, Stability

Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic

In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities.

Evolution and distribution of rabies viruses from a panorama view.

Rabies kills more than 59,000 people annually, mainly in developing countries. Previous studies on the evolution and distribution of rabies viruses (RABVs) were scattered. Here, we explore the evolution and distribution of this deadly virus from a novel panorama view. Multiple bioinformatic software tools were employed to analyze the phylogenetic diversity, evolution, spatiotemporal, and distribution of RABVs. The analyses were based on 1,202 qualified full-length genomes of RABVs and numerous literatures. Of the 10 distinct phylogenetic clades of RABV that we identified, more frequent intra- and inter-clade recombination occurs in the sequences of Asian-SEA, Arctic, and Cosmopolitan clades isolated from China, while according to existing sequence information, RABV might originate from bats (posterior probability, PP = 0.75, PP = 0.60 inferred from N and L genes, separately) in North America (PP = 0.57, PP = 0.62 inferred from N and L genes, separately). Due to the difference in evolutionary rate of N (2.22 × 10-4 subs/site/year, 95% HPD 1.99-2.47 × 10-4 subs/site/year) and L genes (1.67 × 10-4 subs/site/year, 95% HPD 1.59-1.74 × 10-4 subs/site/year), the root age was 1,406.6 (95% HPD 1,291.2-1,518.2) and 1,122.7 (95% HPD 1,052.4-1,193.9) inferred from N and L genes, separately. Among other findings, Mephitidae plays an important role in the interspecific transmission and communication of RABV, which we found tends to spread to populations genetically proximate to the host. We also identified amino acids under positive selection in different genes of different clades as well as single nucleotide variation sites important for different lineages. IMPORTANCE Rabies virus is widely distributed all over the world, and wild animals are its largest potential reservoir. Our study offers a panorama view about evolution and distribution of rabies viruses and emphasizes the need to monitor the transmission dynamics of animal rabies.

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of animal and human rabies in northern South Africa between 1998 and 2017

BackgroundRabies is a fatal zoonotic disease that is maintained in domestic dogs and wildlife populations in the Republic of South Africa. A retrospective study was conducted to improve understanding of the dynamics of rabies in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species, in relation to the ecology for three northern provinces of South Africa (Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and North-West) between 1998 and 2017.MethodsA descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for human and animal rabies. Dog rabies cases were analyzed using spatio-temporal scan statistics. The reproductive number (Rt) was estimated for the identified disease clusters. A phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the genome sequences of rabies viruses isolated from dogs, jackals, and an African civet, and Bayesian evolutionary analysis using a strict time clock model. Several ecological and socio-economic variables associated with dog rabies were modeled using univariate analyses with zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multivariable spatial analyses using the integrated nested Laplace approximation for two time periods: 1998–2002 and 2008–2012.ResultsHuman rabies cases increased in 2006 following an increase in dog rabies cases; however, the human cases declined in the next year while dog rabies cases fluctuated. Ten disease clusters of dog rabies were identified, and utilizing the phylogenetic tree, the dynamics of animal rabies over 20 years was elucidated. In 2006, a virus strain that re-emerged in eastern Limpopo Province caused the large and persistent dog rabies outbreaks in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces. Several clusters included a rabies virus variant maintained in jackals in Limpopo Province, and the other variant in dogs widely distributed. The widely distributed variant maintained in jackal populations in North-West Province caused an outbreak in dogs in 2014. The Rt was high when the disease clusters were associated with either multiple virus strains or multiple animal species. High-risk areas included Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces characterized by woodlands and high temperatures and precipitation.ConclusionCanine rabies was maintained mainly in dog populations but was also associated with jackal species. Rural communities in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces were at high risk of canine rabies originating from dogs.

The effects of geographical distributions of buildings and roads on the spatiotemporal spread of canine rabies: An individual-based modeling study.

Rabies is a fatal disease that has been a serious health concern, especially in developing countries. Although rabies is preventable by vaccination, the spread still occurs sporadically in many countries, including Thailand. Geographical structures, habitats, and behaviors of host populations are essential factors that may result in an enormous impact on the mechanism of propagation and persistence of the disease. To investigate the role of geographical structures on the transmission dynamics of canine rabies, we developed a stochastic individual-based model that integrates the exact configuration of buildings and roads. In our model, the spatial distribution of dogs was estimated based on the distribution of buildings, with roads considered to facilitate dog movement. Two contrasting areas with high- and low-risk of rabies transmission in Thailand, namely, Hatyai and Tepha districts, were chosen as study sites. Our modeling results indicated that the distinct geographical structures of buildings and roads in Hatyai and Tepha could contribute to the difference in the rabies transmission dynamics in these two areas. The high density of buildings and roads in Hatyai could facilitate more rabies transmission. We also investigated the impacts of rabies intervention, including reducing the dog population, restricting owned dog movement, and dog vaccination on the spread of canine rabies in these two areas. We found that reducing the dog population alone might not be sufficient for preventing rabies transmission in the high-risk area. Owned dog confinement could reduce more the likelihood of rabies transmission. Finally, a higher vaccination coverage may be required for controlling rabies transmission in the high-risk area compared to the low-risk area.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies and habitat suitability of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus in Brazil.

Rabies transmitted by wildlife is now the main source of human rabies in the Americas. The common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, is considered a reservoir of rabies causing sporadic and unpredictable human deaths in Brazil, but the extent of the spillover risk to humans remains unknown. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies affecting C. jacchus reported to Brazil’s Ministry of Health passive surveillance system between 2008 and 2020, and combined ecological niche modelling with C. jacchus occurrence data to predict its suitable habitat. Our results show that 67 outbreaks (91 cases) of rabies affecting C. jacchus were reported by 41 municipalities between January 2008 and October 2020, with a mean of 5 outbreaks/year [range: 1–14]. The maximum number of outbreaks and municipalities reporting cases occurred in 2018, coinciding with higher surveillance of primate deaths due to Yellow Fever. A mean of 3 [1–9] new municipalities reported outbreaks yearly, suggesting potential spatial expansions of the C. jacchus variant in northeastern Brazil and emerging rabies spillover from vampire bat Desmodus rotundus to C. jacchus in the north and south. Outbreaks were concentrated in the states of Ceará (72%) and Pernambuco (16%) up to 2012, but are now reported in Piauí since 2013, in Bahia since 2017 (D. rotundus’ antigenic variant, AgV3) and in Rio de Janeiro since 2019 (AgV3). Besides confirming suitable habitat for this primate in the northeast and the east coast of Brazil, our Maximum Entropy model also predicted suitable habitat on the north and the west states of the country but predicted low habitat suitability among inland municipalities of the Caatinga biome reporting rabies. Our findings revealed new areas reporting rabies infecting C. jacchus, highlighting the need to implement strategies limiting spillover to humans and to better understand the drivers of C. jacchus rabies dynamics.

Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination.

Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs Canis familiaris are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across south-east Tanzania.Between January 2011 and July 2019, data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals were used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within- and between-species transmission.During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period, 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%), with the remainder in domestic cats and other wildlife species.Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%), and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations.A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first 6 years of the study. Following the lapse of this program, dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. Synthesis and applications. In south-east Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife-to-wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Canine Rabies and the Rabies Control Program in Davao City, Southern Philippines, 2005–2017

Rabies is a neglected tropical disease that continues to be a public health threat despite the government’s intention to eliminate it by 2022. Specifically, Davao City has implemented the Intensified Rabies Control Program (IRCP), but animal rabies remains endemic, primarily due to canine transmission. Understanding the dynamics of rabies and its control is critical in formulating strategies to hasten disease eradication. This study utilized hotspot analysis on reported canine rabies cases in Davao City from 2005–2017 to determine the spatiotemporal behavior of the disease pre- and post-IRCP. Around 42% of the barangays have had at least one reported case of canine rabies, most of which were owned dogs (82.0%) and unvaccinated or non-updated vaccination (80.1%). Using the Getis-Ord statistic, five hotspot clusters were detected during pre-IRCP, which was reduced to three new clusters in post-IRCP – all of which were highly populated barangays (&gt; 9,000 residents). The hotspot clusters shifted to neighboring areas with recurrent hotspot barangays located at the junction of this shift, suggesting spillover mediated by the hotspots. The number of rabies cases (mean per barangay of 0.797 pre-IRCP and 0.610 post-IRCP), proportion of affected barangays (33.5% pre-IRCP and 30.2% postIRCP), and rate of improper vaccination (mean per barangay of 31.8% pre-IRCP and 28.8% post-IRCP) did not significantly decrease post-IRCP, suggesting the need to boost the vaccination program and responsible pet ownership. There was no systematic geographical distribution of rabies control programs, hence prioritizing high-risk areas through hotspot analysis provides an efficient alternative to addressing the problem

Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs.

A number of mathematical models have been developed for canine rabies to explore dynamics and inform control strategies. A common assumption of these models is that naturally acquired immunity plays no role in rabies dynamics. However, empirical studies have detected rabies-specific antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated domestic dogs, potentially due to immunizing, non-lethal exposure. We developed a stochastic model for canine rabies, parameterised for Laikipia County, Kenya, to explore the implications of different scenarios for naturally acquired immunity to rabies in domestic dogs. Simulating these scenarios using a non-spatial model indicated that low levels of immunity can act to limit rabies incidence and prevent depletion of the domestic dog population, increasing the probability of disease persistence. However, incorporating spatial structure and human response to high rabies incidence allowed the virus to persist in the absence of immunity. While low levels of immunity therefore had limited influence under a more realistic approximation of rabies dynamics, high rates of exposure leading to immunizing non-lethal exposure were required to produce population-level seroprevalences comparable with those reported in empirical studies. False positives and/or spatial variation may contribute to high empirical seroprevalences. However, if high seroprevalences are related to high exposure rates, these findings support the need for high vaccination coverage to effectively control this disease.

Mathematical modelling and phylodynamics for the study of dog rabies dynamics and control: A scoping review.

BackgroundRabies is a fatal yet vaccine-preventable disease. In the last two decades, domestic dog populations have been shown to constitute the predominant reservoir of rabies in developing countries, causing 99% of human rabies cases. Despite substantial control efforts, dog rabies is still widely endemic and is spreading across previously rabies-free areas. Developing a detailed understanding of dog rabies dynamics and the impact of vaccination is essential to optimize existing control strategies and developing new ones. In this scoping review, we aimed at disentangling the respective contributions of mathematical models and phylodynamic approaches to advancing the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in domestic dog populations. We also addressed the methodological limitations of both approaches and the remaining issues related to studying rabies spread and how this could be applied to rabies control.Methodology/principal findingsWe reviewed how mathematical modelling of disease dynamics and phylodynamics have been developed and used to characterize dog rabies dynamics and control. Through a detailed search of the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, we identified a total of n = 59 relevant studies using mathematical models (n = 30), phylodynamic inference (n = 22) and interdisciplinary approaches (n = 7). We found that despite often relying on scarce rabies epidemiological data, mathematical models investigated multiple aspects of rabies dynamics and control. These models confirmed the overwhelming efficacy of massive dog vaccination campaigns in all settings and unraveled the role of dog population structure and frequent introductions in dog rabies maintenance. Phylodynamic approaches successfully disentangled the evolutionary and environmental determinants of rabies dispersal and consistently reported support for the role of reintroduction events and human-mediated transportation over long distances in the maintenance of rabies in endemic areas. Potential biases in data collection still need to be properly accounted for in most of these analyses. Finally, interdisciplinary studies were determined to provide the most comprehensive assessments through hypothesis generation and testing. They also represent new avenues, especially concerning the reconstruction of local transmission chains or clusters through data integration.Conclusions/significanceDespite advances in rabies knowledge, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the mechanisms of local spread, the role of wildlife in dog rabies maintenance, and the impact of community behavior on the efficacy of control strategies including vaccination of dogs. Future integrative approaches that use phylodynamic analyses and mechanistic models within a single framework could take full advantage of not only viral sequences but also additional epidemiological information as well as dog ecology data to refine our understanding of rabies spread and control. This would represent a significant improvement on past studies and a promising opportunity for canine rabies research in the frame of the One Health concept that aims to achieve better public health outcomes through cross-sector collaboration.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rabies reemergence in Latin America: The case of Arequipa, Peru.

In Latin America, there has been tremendous progress towards eliminating canine rabies. Major components of rabies elimination programs leading to these successes have been constant and regular surveillance for rabid dogs and uninterrupted yearly mass dog vaccination campaigns. Unfortunately, vital measures to control COVID-19 have had the negative trade-off of jeopardizing these rabies elimination and prevention activities. We aimed to assess the effect of interrupting canine rabies surveillance and mass dog vaccination campaigns on rabies trends. We built a deterministic compartment model of dog rabies dynamics to create a conceptual framework for how different disruptions may affect rabies virus transmission. We parameterized the model for conditions found in Arequipa, Peru, a city with active rabies virus transmission. We examined our results over a range of plausible values for R0 (1.36–2.0). Also, we prospectively evaluated surveillance data during the pandemic to detect temporal changes. Our model suggests that a decrease in canine vaccination coverage as well as decreased surveillance could lead to a sharp rise in canine rabies within months. These results were consistent over all plausible values of R0. Surveillance data from late 2020 and early 2021 confirms that in Arequipa, Peru, rabies cases are on an increasing trajectory. The rising rabies trends in Arequipa, if indicative to the region as whole, suggest that the achievements made in Latin America towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies may be in jeopardy.

Ecology of Arctic rabies: 60 years of disease surveillance in the warming climate of northern Canada.

Rabies occurs throughout the Arctic, representing an ongoing public health concern for residents of northern communities. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) is the main reservoir of the Arctic rabies virus variant, yet little is known about the epidemiology of Arctic rabies, such as the ecological mechanisms driving where and when epizootics in fox populations occur. In this study, we provide the first portrait of the spatio-temporal spread of rabies across northern Canada. We also explore the impact of seasonal and multiannual dynamics in Arctic fox populations and climatic factors on rabies transmission dynamics. We analysed data on rabies cases collected through passive surveillance systems in the Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Nunavik and Labrador from 1953 to 2014. In addition, we analysed a large and unique database of trapped foxes tested for rabies in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut from 1974 to 1984 as part of active surveillance studies. Rabies cases occurred in all Arctic regions of Canada and were relatively synchronous among foxes and dogs (Canis familiaris). This study highlights the spread of Arctic rabies virus variant across northern Canada, with contrasting rabies dynamics between different yet connected areas. Population fluctuations of Arctic fox populations could drive rabies transmission dynamics in a complex way across northern Canada. Furthermore, this study suggests different impacts of climate and sea ice cover on the onset of rabies epizootics in northern Canada. These results lay the groundwork for the development of epidemiological models to better predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies occurrence in both wild and domestic carnivores, leading to better estimates of human exposure and transmission risk.

Genome-based local dynamics of canine rabies virus epidemiology, transmission, and evolution in Davao City, Philippines, 2018-2019.

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic and neglected tropical disease caused by the rabies virus (RABV) and is associated with neuronal dysfunction and death, with dogs as the predominant carrier. The Philippines plans to eradicate rabies by 2022, but this is challenged with sub-optimal coverage of vaccination programs coupled with sustained transmission chains, making it unable to eradicate the disease. We investigated the dynamics of canine rabies in the highly urbanized Davao City of the Philippines and its neighboring localities by assessing genetic relationships, transmission patterns, selection pressure, and recombination events using the whole genome sequence of 49 RABV cases from June 2018 to May 2019, majority of which (46%) were from the district of Talomo, Davao City. Although phylogeographic clustering was observed, local variants also exhibited genetic sub-lineages. Phylogenetic and spatial transmission analysis provided evidence for intra- and inter-city transmission predominantly through the Talomo district of Davao City. Around 84% of the cases were owned dogs, but the genetic similiarity of RABVs from stray and owned dogs further alluded to the role of the former as transmission vectors. The high rate of improper vaccination among the affected dogs (80%) was also a likely contributor to transmission. The RABV population under Investigation is generally under strong purifying selection with no evidence of vaccine evasion due to the genetic homogeneity of viruses from vaccinated and improperly vaccinated dogs. However, some homologous recombination (HR) events were identified along the G and L genes, also predominantly associated with viruses from Talomo. The complementary findings on epidemiology, transmission, and recombination for Talomo suggest that high incidence areas can be seeds for virus dispersal and evolution. We recommend further Investigations on the possibility of HR in future large-scale genome studies. Finally, districts associated with these phenomena can be targeted for evidence-based local strategies that can help break RABV transmission chains and prevent emergence of novel strains in Davao City.

Modeling Mongoose Rabies in the Caribbean: A Model-Guided Fieldwork Approach to Identify Research Priorities.

We applied the model-guided fieldwork framework to the Caribbean mongoose rabies system by parametrizing a spatially-explicit, individual-based model, and by performing an uncertainty analysis designed to identify parameters for which additional empirical data are most needed. Our analysis revealed important variation in output variables characterizing rabies dynamics, namely rabies persistence, exposure level, spatiotemporal distribution, and prevalence. Among epidemiological parameters, rabies transmission rate was the most influential, followed by rabies mortality and location, and size of the initial infection. The most influential landscape parameters included habitat-specific carrying capacities, landscape heterogeneity, and the level of resistance to dispersal associated with topography. Movement variables, including juvenile dispersal, adult fine-scale movement distances, and home range size, as well as life history traits such as age of independence, birth seasonality, and age- and sex-specific mortality were other important drivers of rabies dynamics. We discuss results in the context of mongoose ecology and its influence on disease transmission dynamics. Finally, we suggest empirical approaches and study design specificities that would provide optimal contributing data addressing the knowledge gaps identified by our approach, and would increase our potential to use epidemiological models to guide mongoose rabies control and management in the Caribbean.

Temporal and spatial distributions of animal and human rabies cases during 2012 and 2018, in Tunisia.

Rabies is one of the most important zoonosis in Tunisia. In the last 6 years, a dramatic increase in the number of cases in animals had raised concern about the transmission dynamics of rabies and the effectiveness of established control measures. For a better understanding of the epidemiological features of rabies in Tunisia, data on animal and human rabies cases and post‐exposure prophylaxis (PEP) protocol, for the period from 2012 to 2018, were analysed to describe the spatial and the temporal distributions of the disease and to guide targeted rabies control measures. Thus, the analysed data have shown that 2,642 animal and 25 human rabies cases were recorded between 2012 and 2018; only few case numbers were reported in wildlife. Time‐related distribution showed that the incidence of dog rabies increases over the period of study, from 24,8/100,000 dog population in 2012 to 35,2/100,000 dog population in 2018. Dog seems to be the main reservoir of rabies as it accounted for more than 59% of the animal confirmed cases and the source for more than 80% of the human confirmed cases. Geographical distribution of animal rabies cases revealed the presence of clusters in the North and the Center of Tunisia; only a little number of animal cases were reported in the South. In contrast, the overall human rabies incidence was 0.03 per 100,000 population, during the period of the study. We have found that the incidence of human rabies increases by 13.6% from 2012 to 2015 and drops steadily by 23.41% over the second period (2015 to 2018). A high number of PEP was recorded during the 7‐year period, with an average of 360 PEP per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Spatial analysis revealed the presence of clusters of PEP in the Northern and Central governorates. The present study pointed out the need to review the control strategy of rabies in Tunisia and conduct further studies on dog population to provide the basis for a new and efficacious policy of interventions and control program for rabies.