Dynamics Of Insurgency Research Articles

Statehood and the political dynamics of insurgency: KLA and PKK in comparative perspective

Why do some insurgencies attain their ultimate goal of statehood while others never do? Although explanations for insurgency success based on political will, natural resources, geography or diaspora involvement have advanced our understanding of the conditions under which insurgencies are likely to succeed in pursuing their statehood agenda, they have not adequately addressed the critical role of the major external actors (e.g. USA, UK, European Union, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)) and how significant these actors are in shaping the fate of many insurgencies around the world. In an effort to develop a model that explains insurgency outcome, this paper argues that external support or lack thereof is likely to shape insurgency outcome. When major external actors support insurgency, the movement is likely to succeed in pursuing its statehood agenda. Otherwise, the movement is likely to reconsider its political agenda if it lacks the necessary external support from major actors. This argument is demonstrated by a comprehensive study and comparison of two cases of insurgency, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Space-Time Granger Analysis of the War in Iraq: A Study of Coalition and Insurgent Action-Reaction

We investigate insurgent-coalition interaction using the WikiLeaks dataset of Iraq war logs 2004–2009. After a review of existing theoretical interventions on the dynamics of insurgency and presenting a baseline model of violent events, we test a conceptual model of reciprocity using an innovative space-time Granger causality technique. Our estimation procedure retains predicted probabilities of reaction in response to a previous opponent's action across different temporal and spatial configurations in Iraq and in Baghdad. Our conclusions about conflict in Iraq are based on these profiles of risk—what we call space-time signatures. We find strong evidence of “tit-for-tat” associations between coalition/Iraq forces on one side and insurgents/militants on the other. Specifically, we find that the action-reaction association varies strongly by majority ethnic region across Iraq and in Baghdad, by urban and nonurban location, and within Sunni-dominated areas, by district income. While violence is strongly temporally dependent in the same location, the effect of distance varies significantly across the different subsets of the Iraq data.

‘An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth’: Political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt

The authors analyse newly collected time-series data measuring the dimensions of violent political conflict in Egypt. Attention is focused on the interaction between politically motivated attacks by Islamists and the counter-insurgency measures used by the Egyptian government. Both insurgency and counter-insurgency are multidimensional. Insurgency includes attacks on tourists, on Egyptian civilians and on security forces. Counter-insurgency includes arrests and attacks on militants. To some extent, the dynamics of insurgency and counter-insurgency can be described by two distinct cycles of violence: one related to highly politicized activities on both sides, and another related to less explicitly political activities. However, the two cycles are inter-related, leading to complex and asymmetric dynamics in the relationships between the different dimensions of the conflict. The authors find that the combination of political repression and military counter-insurgency measures employed by the Egyptian government has the potential to exacerbate rather than reduce political violence. On the other hand, the overall level of conflict intensity in Egypt can be mitigated by food subsidies. Finally, the existence of significant spillovers from upsurges in the Israeli—Palestinian conflict shows the regional importance of reaching a Middle East peace agreement.

The Jihadi Insurgency and the Russian Counterinsurgency in the North Caucasus

A political scientist reviews the vicissitudes of the Caucasus jihadi insurgency and Russia's counterinsurgency efforts since 2005, drawing on the press, jihadist websites, and scholarship on insurgencies and counterinsurgencies. The development of jihadi-oriented fighting units, the rise and decline of Maskhadov's supremacy, the rise of Islamist elements, the Chechen separatist movement and the expansion of the jihad, Moscow's counter-jihadi successes, the jihadi network after the death of Basayev, and the rise and career of Ramzan Kadyrov are examined. These events are analyzed in terms of the dynamics of insurgency and counterinsurgency conflict.