Dynamics Of Choice Behavior Research Articles

Surprise Acts as a Reducer of Outcome Value in Human Reinforcement Learning.

Surprise occurs because of differences between a decision outcome and its predicted outcome (prediction error), regardless of whether the error is positive or negative. It has recently been postulated that surprise affects the reward value of the action outcome; studies have indicated that increasing surprise as an absolute value of prediction error decreases the value of the outcome. However, how surprise affects the value of the outcome and subsequent decision making is unclear. We suggest that, on the assumption that surprise decreases the outcome value, agents will increase their risk-averse choices when an outcome is often surprising. Here, we propose the surprise-sensitive utility model, a reinforcement learning model that states that surprise decreases the outcome value, to explain how surprise affects subsequent decision making. To investigate the properties of the proposed model, we compare the model with previous reinforcement learning models on two probabilistic learning tasks by simulations. As a result, the proposed model explains the risk-averse choices like the previous models, and the risk-averse choices increase as the surprise-based modulation parameter of outcome value increases. We also performed statistical model selection by using two experimental datasets with different tasks. The proposed model fits these datasets better than the other models with the same number of free parameters, indicating that the model can better capture the trial-by-trial dynamics of choice behavior.

A Probit Model of Choice Dynamics

There are many products which are repeatedly purchased by consumers. In such cases it is likely that choice history, that is the sequence of choices made in the past, as well as marketing variables affect subsequent choice decisions. Attempts to model the effects of choice history have been generally based on the inclusion of variables that represent brand loyalty and/or variety seeking behavior. In this paper we present a model of dynamic choice behavior which is more general and incorporates four characteristics. The first characteristic labeled preference reinforcement and preference reduction represents loyalty and variety seeking. The second is the short-term reluctance of a consumer to move from the current brand (inertia) or the willingness to move to another brand (mobility). The third characteristic captures the effect of repetitive consumption (the long term effect) on inertia and mobility. The fourth characteristic incorporates the similarity or dissimilarity of choice alternatives. This is important in a dynamic model because choice on the current purchase occasion can be affected by whether a similar or dissimilar alternative was chosen on the previous occasion. Similarities of alternatives are represented in terms of distances. The effect of price on choice behavior is also modeled. Individual-level purchase data from a consumer panel are used to estimate a covariance probit and an independent probit specification of the model. From a substantive perspective the model gives interesting insights into the dynamics of choice behavior. The model predicts switches better than a benchmark model which incorporates only loyalty. In addition, it is superior to three benchmark models in overall predictive ability.

The dynamics of choice behavior towards books: The role of cultural products in cultural behavior

This issue collects a number of papers on aspects of choice behavior towards books. Most of the contributors are members of the Marketing and Sociology of Books Group at Tilburg University. The fields of expertise are sociology of literature, economic psychology and marketing. The other authors in this issue are all familiar with the research done by this group. From the start the research done by the members of the group was aimed at answering questions about the functioning of literary and cultural institutions, that is, the organizations involved in the material production and distribution of books, the councils that advise national and local authorities on public subsidies for the arts, and the somewhat loosely organized group of people who seek to specify and propagate (normative) conceptions of literature in terms of which value is assigned to literary and nonliterary fiction and nonfiction. By scrutinizing the social and economic conditions under which cultural institutions operate institutional analysts have gained a better insight into the manner in which social and economic factors affect the nature of these institutions’ products: publishers’ lists, literary magazines, the assortment offered by book clubs and the collections of public libraries. Although there is still considerable interest in these issues, in the last five years the focus has shifted towards research into the various aspects of consumer behavior towards books and literary magazines. Researchers in the humanities usually regard consumer (or connoisseur) behavior towards cultural products (e.g. works of art) as being determined by the objects themselves. ‘Charismatic ideology’ is the term Bourdieu coined to designate and denounce the belief in the power of a cultural object to

Dynamics of Choice Behavior: The Logical Relation between Linear Objective Probability and Nonlinear Subjective Probability

In choice behavior, researchers have noticed that humans have a preference for some probabilities, Most researchers in the past 40 yr. have been unable to account for the nonlinearity of this behavior. The convex shape of nonlinear subjective probabilities has been experimentally confirmed by every investigator from Preston and Baratta through Edwards, Handa, and Kahneman and Tversky. What has been lacking is a clear analysis of why the probabilities have a convex shape. Here, it is argued that Keynes provided a logical explanation and a mathematical formula for this phenomenon in 1921. Had researchers not overlooked this important work, the body of knowledge on choice behavior might be more advanced.