Dynamic Spatial Patterns Research Articles

A dataset of NDVI for the vegetation growing season in Central Asia with a resolution of 250 m (2001–2020) and 30 m (2020)

Central Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the Northern Hemisphere, and its ecological environment is extremely fragile and susceptible to the effects of global climate change. Maintaining the stability of the region's ecosystem is crucial to global economic and social development due to its unique geographic location. Vegetation serves as a significant indicator of the ecological environment, and the spatial and temporal distribution pattern, as well as the change trend of vegetation, are important indicators in evaluating the ecological status of the region. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a commonly used remote sensing index to study vegetation, which characterizes the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation. This dataset utilized MODIS13Q1 to generate long-term time series growing season mean NDVI data with a spatial resolution of 250m in Central Asia from 2001 to 2020. To obtain the 2020 growing season mean NDVI data with a higher spatial resolution of 30m, the Cubist algorithm based on rule segmentation regression was utilized to fuse the Landsat data and MODIS data. Meanwhile, this dataset carried out quality control of data products from three aspects: data source quality control, model training optimization, and model independent verification to ensure the accuracy and reliability of data. The generation of this dataset provides powerful data support for the analysis of vegetation dynamic change and spatial pattern in Central Asia.

Transcriptional repression and enhancer decommissioning silence cell cycle genes in postmitotic tissues.

The mechanisms that maintain a non-cycling status in postmitotic tissues are not well understood. Many cell cycle genes have promoters and enhancers that remain accessible even when cells are terminally differentiated and in a non-cycling state, suggesting their repression must be maintained long term. In contrast, enhancer decommissioning has been observed for rate-limiting cell cycle genes in the Drosophila wing, a tissue where the cells die soon after eclosion, but it has been unclear if this also occurs in other contexts of terminal differentiation. In this study, we show that enhancer decommissioning also occurs at specific, rate-limiting cell cycle genes in the long-lived tissues of the Drosophila eye and brain, and we propose this loss of chromatin accessibility may help maintain a robust postmitotic state. We examined the decommissioned enhancers at specific rate-limiting cell cycle genes and showed that they encode for dynamic temporal and spatial expression patterns that include shared, as well as tissue-specific elements, resulting in broad gene expression with developmentally controlled temporal regulation. We extend our analysis to cell cycle gene expression and chromatin accessibility in the mammalian retina using a published dataset and find that the principles of cell cycle gene regulation identified in terminally differentiating Drosophila tissues are conserved in the differentiating mammalian retina. We propose a robust, non-cycling status is maintained in long-lived postmitotic tissues through a combination of stable repression at most cell cycle genes, alongside enhancer decommissioning at specific rate-limiting cell cycle genes.

Alterations of resting-state network dynamics in Alzheimer's disease based on leading eigenvector dynamics analysis.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease, and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is considered a transitional stage between healthy aging and dementia. Early detection of MCI can help slow down the progression of AD. At present, there are few studies exploring the characteristics of abnormal dynamic brain activity in AD. This article uses a method called leading eigenvector dynamics analysis (LEiDA) to study resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data of AD, MCI, and cognitively normal (CN) participants. By identifying repetitive states of phase coherence, intergroup differences in brain dynamic activity indicators are examined, and the neurobehavioral scales were used to assess the relationship between abnormal dynamic activities and cognitive function. The results showed that in the indicators of occurrence probability and lifetime, the globally synchronized state of the patient group decreased. The activity state of the limbic regions significantly detected the difference between AD and the other two groups. Compared to CN, AD and MCI have varying degrees of increase in default and visual region activity states. In addition, in the analysis related to the cognitive scales, it was found that individuals with poorer cognitive abilities were less active in the globally synchronized state and more active in limbic region activity state and visual region activity state. Taken together, these findings reveal abnormal dynamic activity of resting-state networks in patients with AD and MCI, provide new insights into the dynamic analysis of brain networks, and contribute to a deeper understanding of abnormal spatial dynamic patterns in AD patients.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease, but few studies have explored the characteristics of abnormal dynamic brain activity in AD patients. Here, our report reveals the abnormal dynamic activity of the patients' resting-state network, providing new insights into the dynamic analysis of brain networks and helping to gain a deeper understanding of the abnormal spatial dynamic patterns in AD patients.

Spatial–temporal evaluation of total-factor energy efficiency in Chinese construction industry based on three-stage super-efficiency SBM-DEA model

PurposeThe study aims to enhance energy efficiency within the high-energy consuming construction industry. It explores the spatial-temporal dynamics and distribution patterns of total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) across China’s construction industry, aiming to inform targeted emission reduction policies at provincial and city levels.Design/methodology/approachUtilizing a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-DEA model that integrates carbon emissions, the TFEE in 30 Chinese provinces and cities from 2004 to 2019 is assessed. Through kernel density estimation and exploratory spatial data analysis, the dynamic evolution and spatial patterns of TFEE are examined.FindingsAnalysis reveals that environmental investments positively impact TFEE, whereas Gross Regional Product (GRP) exerts a negative influence. R&D expenditure intensity and marketization show mixed effects. Excluding environmental and random factors, TFEE averages declined, aligning more closely with actual development trends, showing a gradual decrease from east to west. TFEE exhibited fluctuating growth with a trend moving from inefficient clusters to a more even distribution. Spatially, TFEE demonstrated aggregation effects and characteristics of space-time transition.Originality/valueThis research employs the three-stage super-efficiency SBM-DEA model to measure the total factor energy efficiency of the construction industry, taking into account external environment, random disturbances, and multiple effective decision-making units. It also evaluates energy efficiency changes before and after removing disturbances and comprehensively examines regional and temporal differences from static and dynamic, overall and phased perspectives. Additionally, Moran scatter plots and LISA cluster maps are used to objectively analyze the spatial agglomeration and factors influencing energy efficiency.

Enhancing multivariate, multi-step residential load forecasting with spatiotemporal graph attention-enabled transformer

Short-term residential load forecasting (STRLF) holds great significance for the stable and economic operation of distributed power systems. Different households in the same region may exhibit similar consumption patterns owing to the analogous environmental parameters. Incorporating the spatiotemporal correlations can enhance the load forecasting performance of individual households. To this end, a spatiotemporal graph attention (STGA)-enabled Transformer is proposed for multivariate, multi-step residential load forecasting in this paper. Specifically, the multiple residential loads are cast to a graph and a Transformer with a graph sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) structure is employed to model the multi-step load forecasting problem. Gated fusion-based STGA blocks are embedded in the encoder and decoder of the Transformer to extract dynamic spatial correlations and non-linear temporal patterns among multiple residential loads. A transform attention block is further designed to transfer historical graph observations into future graph predictions and alleviate the error propagation between the encoder and decoder. The embedding of multiple attention modules in the Seq2Seq framework allows us to capture the spatiotemporal correlations between residents and achieve confident inference of load values several steps ahead. Numerical simulations on residential data from three different regions demonstrate that the developed Transformer method improves multi-step load forecasting by 14.7% at least, compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks.

The spatiotemporal evolution of monogenetic scoria cones in the Paricutin-Tancítaro region, Mexico: Results from a Morpho-chronological analysis and its consequences on the distributed volcanic hazard

The Paricutin-Tancítaro region (PTR) within the Michoacán-Guanajuato monogenetic Volcanic Field (MGVF) is characterized by a large stratovolcano, Tancítaro enclosed in a dense distribution of monogenetic volcanoes, mainly scoria cones, that includes the well-known Paricutin. The succession of seismic swarms beginning 54 years after the birth of Paricutin in 1943 represents a challenge for apprising the region's volcanic and seismic hazards. In this work, we introduce a novel methodology to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the monogenetic scoria cones and the distributed volcanic hazards. We first performed a morpho-chronometric analysis of 171 scoria cones to estimate their relative ages, which revealed an increasing trend in the rate of monogenetic eruptions over the last 120 kyr, especially in the last 20 kyr, with a current mean waiting interval between monogenetic eruptions of only 120 yr. In a second step, we estimate the spatiotemporal evolution of monogenetic volcanic activity in PTR using a Voronoi tessellation to represent the spatial density distribution of scoria cone emplacement through time to detect dynamic shifts in volcanic activity locations in the region. This approach thus reveals spatial dynamic patterns in the rates of monogenetic eruptions over time. Subsequently, a Poisson process is assumed to estimate the spatially distributed cone-forming eruption probabilities based on the morpho-chronometrically analyzed cones. Remarkably, a high spatial correlation was found between the areas with the highest probabilities and the location of the recent seismic swarms recorded in the PTR.

STFEformer: Spatial–Temporal Fusion Embedding Transformer for Traffic Flow Prediction

In the realm of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSs), traffic flow prediction is crucial for multiple applications. The primary challenge in traffic flow prediction lies in the handling and modeling of the intricate spatial–temporal correlations inherent in transport data. In recent years, many studies have focused on developing various Spatial–Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs), and researchers have also begun to explore the application of transformers to capture spatial–temporal correlations in traffic data. However, GNN-based methods mainly focus on modeling spatial correlations statically, which significantly limits their capacity to discover dynamic and long-range spatial patterns. Transformer-based methods have not sufficiently extracted the comprehensive representation of traffic data features. To explore dynamic spatial dependencies and comprehensively characterize traffic data, the Spatial–Temporal Fusion Embedding Transformer (STFEformer) is proposed for traffic flow prediction. Specifically, we propose a fusion embedding layer to capture and fuse both native information and spatial–temporal features, aiming to achieve a comprehensive representation of traffic data characteristics. Then, we introduce a spatial self-attention module designed to enhance detection of dynamic and long-range spatial correlations by focusing on interactions between similar nodes. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world datasets demonstrate that STFEformer significantly outperforms various baseline models, notably achieving up to a 5.6% reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on the PeMS08 dataset compared to the next-best model. Furthermore, the results of ablation experiments and visualizations are employed to clarify and highlight our model’s performance. STFEformer represents a meaningful advancement in traffic flow prediction, potentially influencing future research and applications in ITSs by providing a more robust framework for managing and analyzing traffic data.

A novel full-resolution convolutional neural network for urban-fringe-rural identification: A case study of urban agglomeration region

Monitoring urbanization processes is important because they are often accompanied by intensive landscape pattern transitions and pluralistic socioeconomic changes. To effectively monitor urban expansion and support regional planning, it is essential to develop a fast, accurate and universal urban–rural classification model, especially identifying the dynamic spatial patterns of urban, urban–rural fringe and rural areas. Although deep learning can effectively detect land cover changes, its applications in urban–rural identification have received little attention due to a lack of high-quality training datasets. In this study, we develop a novel transferable full-resolution convolutional neural network (FR-Net) to identify urban-fringe-rural areas. A large-scale training dataset was constructed using field surveys and aerial photography, and a data cube was stacked by multiple typical socio-natural indicators. We took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration region in China as a case study and identified spatiotemporal evolutions of urban-fringe-rural areas from 2000 to 2020. The results indicated that over the past two decades, the urban–rural fringe expanded outward with urban areas, and both areas gradually increased, with an inverted U-shaped growth rate. Accurate identification of these fringes can benefit regional urban–rural planning and social governance. Based on the identification results, complex socio-ecological impacts of urbanization could be further explored. Testing demonstrated that the developed FR-Net model has high accuracy and robustness. Our developed open-source FR-Net model exhibits transferability and can be applied to multi-scale urbanized areas.

Spatial Analysis of Internally Displaced Persons’ Camps in Borno State, Nigeria

The situation in Borno State, Nigeria has been exacerbated by the ongoing insurgency led by Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria, leading to widespread displacement and the establishment of Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps. This study aims to identify the locations of IDP camps in Borno State and analyze their spatial distribution, density, and clustering patterns. Furthermore, it seeks to investigate the geospatial implications of these patterns. To achieve this, the study employs geospatial analysis techniques such as Kernel Density Estimation, Cluster and Outlier Analysis, Nearest Neighbour Analysis, and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis. The data collected for this study includes location coordinates, satellite imagery, demographic information, and administrative maps. The findings reveal that the distribution of IDP camps in Borno State is non-random and demonstrates varying camp densities across senatorial districts, with predominant high-high clusters and a deliberate, non-random arrangement. These results align with spatial analysis theories, emphasizing the importance of recognizing hidden inequalities in IDP camps and informing targeted interventions and resource planning for a more effective and equitable humanitarian response in Borno State. The implications extend to policy planning and enhanced vulnerability assessment for effective humanitarian responses, stressing the need for tailored interventions based on identified hotspots that address root causes and implement both immediate and long-term solutions. Future research directions could involve more in-depth investigations into the influencing factors, socio-economic impacts, and temporal dynamics of spatial patterns in displacement.

Thalamic contributions to psychosis susceptibility: Evidence from co-activation patterns accounting for intra-seed spatial variability (μCAPs).

The temporal variability of the thalamus in functional networks may provide valuable insights into the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. To address the complexity of the role of the thalamic nuclei in psychosis, we introduced micro-co-activation patterns (μCAPs) and employed this method on the human genetic model of schizophrenia 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS). Participants underwent resting-state functional MRI and a data-driven iterative process resulting in the identification of six whole-brain μCAPs with specific activity patterns within the thalamus. Unlike conventional methods, μCAPs extract dynamic spatial patterns that reveal partially overlapping and non-mutually exclusive functional subparts. Thus, the μCAPs method detects finer foci of activity within the initial seed region, retaining valuable and clinically relevant temporal and spatial information. We found that a μCAP showing co-activation of the mediodorsal thalamus with brain-wide cortical regions was expressed significantly less frequently in patients with 22q11.2DS, and its occurrence negatively correlated with the severity of positive psychotic symptoms. Additionally, activity within the auditory-visual cortex and their respective geniculate nuclei was expressed in two different μCAPs. One of these auditory-visual μCAPs co-activated with salience areas, while the other co-activated with the default mode network (DMN). A significant shift of occurrence from the salience+visuo-auditory-thalamus to the DMN + visuo-auditory-thalamus μCAP was observed in patients with 22q11.2DS. Thus, our findings support existing research on the gatekeeping role of the thalamus for sensory information in the pathophysiology of psychosis and revisit the evidence of geniculate nuclei hyperconnectivity with the audio-visual cortex in 22q11.2DS in the context of dynamic functional connectivity, seen here as the specific hyper-occurrence of these circuits with the task-negative brain networks.

Mapping dynamic spatial patterns of brain function with spatial-wise attention

Objective: Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and deep learning to discover the spatial pattern of brain function, or functional brain networks (FBNs) has been attracted many reseachers. Most existing works focus on static FBNs or dynamic functional connectivity among fixed spatial network nodes, but ignore the potential dynamic/time-varying characteristics of the spatial networks themselves. And most of works based on the assumption of linearity and independence, that oversimplify the relationship between blood-oxygen level dependence signal changes and the heterogeneity of neuronal activity within voxels. Approach: To overcome these problems, we proposed a novel spatial-wise attention (SA) based method called Spatial and Channel-wise Attention Autoencoder (SCAAE) to discover the dynamic FBNs without the assumptions of linearity or independence. The core idea of SCAAE is to apply the SA to generate FBNs directly, relying solely on the spatial information present in fMRI volumes. Specifically, we trained the SCAAE in a self-supervised manner, using the autoencoder to guide the SA to focus on the activation regions. Experimental results show that the SA can generate multiple meaningful FBNs at each fMRI time point, which spatial similarity are close to the FBNs derived by known classical methods, such as independent component analysis. Main results: To validate the generalization of the method, we evaluate the approach on HCP-rest, HCP-task and ADHD-200 dataset. The results demonstrate that SA mechanism can be used to discover time-varying FBNs, and the identified dynamic FBNs over time clearly show the process of time-varying spatial patterns fading in and out. Significance: Thus we provide a novel method to understand human brain better. Code is available at https://github.com/WhatAboutMyStar/SCAAE.

Archetypal analysis of COVID-19 in Montana, USA, March 13, 2020 to April 26, 2022.

Infectious disease data can often involve complex spatial patterns intermixed with temporal trends. Archetypal Analysis is a method to mine complex spatio-temporal data, and can be used to discover the dynamics of spatial patterns. The application of Archetypal Analysis to epidemiological data is relatively new, and here we present one of the first applications on COVID-19 data from March 13, 2020 to April 26, 2022, for the counties of Montana, USA. We present three views of the data set decomposed with Archetypal Analysis. First, we evaluate the entire 56 county data set. Second, we use a mutual information calculation to remove counties whose dynamics are mainly independent from the other counties, reducing the set to 17 counties. Finally, we analyze the top ten counties in terms of population size to focus on the dynamics in the large cities in the state. For each data set, we analyze four significant disease outbreaks across Montana. Archetypal Analysis uncovers distinct spatial patterns for each outbreak and demonstrates that each has a unique trajectory across the state.

Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

Abstract. The Rietkerk vegetation model is a system of partial differential equations, which has been used to understand the formation and dynamics of spatial patterns in vegetation ecosystems, including desertification and biodiversity loss. Here, we provide an in-depth bifurcation analysis of the vegetation patterns produced by Rietkerk's model, based on a linear stability analysis of the homogeneous equilibrium of the system. Specifically, using a continuation method based on the Newton–Raphson algorithm, we obtain all the main heterogeneous equilibria for a given size of the domain. We confirm that inhomogeneous vegetated states can exist and be stable, even for a value of rainfall for which no vegetation exists in the non-spatialized system. In addition, we evidence the existence of a new type of equilibrium, which we call “mixed state”, in which the equilibria are always unstable and take the form of a mix of two equilibria from the main branches. Although these equilibria are unstable, they influence the dynamics of the transitions between distinct stable states by slowing down the evolution of the system when it passes close to it. Our approach proves to be a helpful way to assess the existence of tipping points in spatially extended systems and disentangle the fate of the system in the Busse balloon. Overall, our findings represent a significant step forward in understanding the behaviour of the Rietkerk model and the broader dynamics of vegetation patterns.

Spatial dynamic analysis and thematic mapping of vulnerable communities to urban floods

Natural disasters, particularly floods, have increasingly impacted urban areas globally. Previous research has not adequately analyzed the vulnerability to floods of populations based on race and ethnicity. This study aims to examine demographic changes over the past two decades in five southern US cities and determine whether minority and non-minority populations have moved closer to or farther from flood-prone areas. Using a spatial clustering approach, the study identifies geographical clusters of the white and minority populations within the 100-year floodplain. In general, the white people are moving away from floodplain areas in Birmingham and Jackson. Except for Charleston, the highest populations clustered in floodplains were minority communities (the African American and Hispanic). In Birmingham, both the White and the African American populations in floodplains have decreased due to the federal and local governments' relocating populations through acquisition projects. The African American in Jackson, Birmingham, and New Orleans were particularly vulnerable to flooding. Houston and New Orleans had also significant increases in the Hispanic and Asian populations within floodplains. The findings can help federal and local governments and communities understand spatial and temporal pattern dynamics between minorities and the White, which assists for effective decision making and equitable solutions to vulnerable communities.

Adaptive Joint Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning Network for Traffic Data Forecasting

Traffic data forecasting has become an integral part of the intelligent traffic system. Great efforts are spent developing tools and techniques to estimate traffic flow patterns. Many existing approaches lack the ability to model the complex and dynamic spatio-temporal relations in the traffic data, which are crucial in capturing the traffic dynamic. In this work, we propose a novel adaptive joint spatio-temporal graph learning network (AJSTGL) for traffic data forecasting. The proposed model utilizes static and adaptive graph learning modules to capture the static and dynamic spatial traffic patterns and optimize the graph learning process. A sequence-to-sequence fusion model is proposed to learn the temporal correlation and combine the output of multiple parallelized encoders. We also develop a spatio-temporal graph transformer module to complement the sequence-to-sequence fusion module by dynamically capturing the time-evolving node relations in long-term intervals. Experiments on three large-scale traffic flow datasets demonstrate that our model could outperform other state-of-the-art baseline methods.

A study on the spatial and temporal dynamics of landscape spatial patterns of different types of rural communities in Taiwan

Climate change and urbanization are the main factors causing landscape changes not only in urban areas but also in rural communities. Rural communities have economic, cultural, social, and significant ecological value. Based on the background of environmental change, this study selects three main classes of rural communities in Taiwan as the research areas. Based on the remote sensing images from 2001 to 2020 and the survey of land use status, the land transfer matrix and landscape index method were used to analyze the landscape spatial pattern changes and driving forces of rural communities. The results revealed that (1) the land use changes of the four different types of rural communities have both common features. The growth of construction land and transportation land area is a common phenomenon, and the growth rate matches the type of rural community. Forest land or farmland is the main land cover. From the perspective of land transfer analysis, it is the mutual conversion and loss of agricultural land, forest land and other land. (2) There are differences in the landscape pattern changes of the three main classes of rural communities. The production community (Dalian) pattern is progressing steadily. The ecological community (Gangbian) pattern is progressing slowly. The process of living community pattern varies greatly, while the progress of village experience type (Shuangtan) pattern is slow. The comprehensive wealth type (Seshui) pattern is developing unevenly and at a fast pace. (3) The driving force of land use change mainly comes from the policy drive of the public sector, the spatial planning system, and community development activities. This study fills in the gaps in the development of landscape spatial patterns of different types of rural communities, and provides a reference for the formulation of regulations on the spatial planning system of rural communities in Taiwan.

Scale dependency of community assembly differs between coastal marine bacteria and fungi

It is often assumed that community assembly processes, i.e. deterministic or stochastic factors determining the structure of communities, vary with spatial scale. However, evidence showing such scale‐dependency is challenging to gather, especially in microbial communities.Here we studied the relative importance of potential community assembly processes of bacterial and fungal communities across the coastline of China. We used null models based on phylogenetic and compositional turnover to quantify the relative importance of the processes at three spatial scales (local, regional and subcontinental). We used a generalized multinomial logistic regression to estimate the probability of observing the different assembly processes along environmental and spatial gradients. We found that, overall, deterministic processes are stronger in driving the assembly of bacterial communities compared to fungal communities, especially at the local scale. Moreover, the assembly processes in bacterial communities exhibit clear scale‐dependency, with homogeneous selection being the dominant process at the local scale, and dispersal limitation dominating at regional and subcontinental scales. Conversely, drift is consistently the dominant driver of fungal community assembly across all spatial scales. Our findings demonstrate scale‐dependency in community assembly processes between two marine microbial groups, and highlight the importance of adopting a multi‐scale approach to gain insights into the complex and dynamic spatial patterns of microbial communities.

Identifying the patterns and sizes of the first lumpy skin disease outbreak clusters in Northern Thailand with a high degree of dairy farm aggregation using spatio-temporal models

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is one of the most important notifiable transboundary diseases affecting cattle in many parts of the world. In Thailand, LSD outbreaks in cattle farming areas have been reported in 69 out of 77 provinces, indicating a serious nationwide situation. Understanding the dynamics of spatial and temporal LSD epidemic patterns can provide important information on disease transmission and control. This study aims to identify spatial and temporal clusters in the first LSD outbreaks in dairy farming areas with a high degree of aggregation in Northern Thailand using spatio-temporal models. The data were obtained from an official LSD outbreak investigation conducted between June and August 2021 on dairy farms (n = 202). The outbreak of LSD was confirmed by employing clinical observations and laboratory analysis. The spatio-temporal models including space-time permutation (STP), Poisson, and Bernoulli were applied to the outbreak data with the settings of 10%, 25%, and 50%, respectively, for the maximum reported cluster size (MRCS). Overall, the number of most likely and secondary clusters varied depending on the model and MRCS settings. All MRCS settings in the STP model detected the most likely clusters in the same area and the Poisson models in different areas, with the largest being defined by a 50% MRCS. Although the sizes of the most likely clusters identified by the Bernoulli models were different, they all had the same cluster period. Based on the sizes of the detected clusters, strict LSD insect-vector control should be undertaken within one kilometer of the outbreak farm in areas where no LSD vaccination has been administered. This study determines the sizes and patterns of LSD outbreak clusters in the dairy farming area with a high degree of farm aggregation. The spatio-temporal study models used in this study, along with multiple adjusted MRCS, provide critical epidemiological information. These models also expand the options for assisting livestock authorities in facilitating effective LSD prevention and control programs. By prioritizing areas for resource allocation, these models can help improve the efficiency of such programs.

Upscaling Wetland Methane Emissions From the FLUXNET‐CH4 Eddy Covariance Network (UpCH4 v1.0): Model Development, Network Assessment, and Budget Comparison

AbstractWetlands are responsible for 20%–31% of global methane (CH4) emissions and account for a large source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget. Data‐driven upscaling of CH4 fluxes from eddy covariance measurements can provide new and independent bottom‐up estimates of wetland CH4 emissions. Here, we develop a six‐predictor random forest upscaling model (UpCH4), trained on 119 site‐years of eddy covariance CH4 flux data from 43 freshwater wetland sites in the FLUXNET‐CH4 Community Product. Network patterns in site‐level annual means and mean seasonal cycles of CH4 fluxes were reproduced accurately in tundra, boreal, and temperate regions (Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency ∼0.52–0.63 and 0.53). UpCH4 estimated annual global wetland CH4 emissions of 146 ± 43 TgCH4 y−1 for 2001–2018 which agrees closely with current bottom‐up land surface models (102–181 TgCH4 y−1) and overlaps with top‐down atmospheric inversion models (155–200 TgCH4 y−1). However, UpCH4 diverged from both types of models in the spatial pattern and seasonal dynamics of tropical wetland emissions. We conclude that upscaling of eddy covariance CH4 fluxes has the potential to produce realistic extra‐tropical wetland CH4 emissions estimates which will improve with more flux data. To reduce uncertainty in upscaled estimates, researchers could prioritize new wetland flux sites along humid‐to‐arid tropical climate gradients, from major rainforest basins (Congo, Amazon, and SE Asia), into monsoon (Bangladesh and India) and savannah regions (African Sahel) and be paired with improved knowledge of wetland extent seasonal dynamics in these regions. The monthly wetland methane products gridded at 0.25° from UpCH4 are available via ORNL DAAC (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/2253).

Acute and Long-Term Consequences of Co-opted doublesex on the Development of Mimetic Butterfly Color Patterns.

Novel phenotypes are increasingly recognized to have evolved by co-option of conserved genes into new developmental contexts, yet the process by which co-opted genes modify existing developmental programs remains obscure. Here, we provide insight into this process by characterizing the role of co-opted doublesex in butterfly wing color pattern development. dsx is the master regulator of insect sex differentiation but has been co-opted to control the switch between discrete nonmimetic and mimetic patterns in Papilio alphenor and its relatives through the evolution of novel mimetic alleles. We found dynamic spatial and temporal expression pattern differences between mimetic and nonmimetic butterflies throughout wing development. A mimetic color pattern program is switched on by a pulse of dsx expression in early pupal development that causes acute and long-term differential gene expression, particularly in Wnt and Hedgehog signaling pathways. RNAi suggested opposing, novel roles for these pathways in mimetic pattern development. Importantly, Dsx co-option caused Engrailed, a primary target of Hedgehog signaling, to gain a novel expression domain early in pupal wing development that is propagated through mid-pupal development to specify novel mimetic patterns despite becoming decoupled from Dsx expression itself. Altogether, our findings provide multiple views into how co-opted genes can both cause and elicit changes to conserved networks and pathways to result in development of novel, adaptive phenotypes.