Dynamic Risk Assessment System Research Articles

Application of Internet of Things Energy System in Dynamic Risk Assessment of Composite Fault of Transmission Line

In order to study the application of Internet of things energy system in complex fault risk dynamic assessment of transmission line. Firstly, the concept of power grid dynamic risk assessment is introduced, and the process of power grid dynamic risk assessment system based on Internet of things is designed. Then, it puts forward how to use the ubiquitous Internet of things multisource data to solve the key problems such as dynamic perception of fault probability, dynamic selection of fault set, dynamic generation of post fault state, and dynamic risk assessment of operation process. Finally, taking the maximum operation mode of a provincial power grid in summer 2013 as an example, this paper selects key 500 kV transmission lines for risk assessment, and the actual power grid example shows that. The power grid comprehensive risk assessment system considering the fault characteristics of transmission lines can effectively predict the fault probability of transmission lines; distinguish the two risks of high loss, low probability, and low loss and high probability; and provide guidance for operators. It is practical and effective.

Dynamic Evaluation Method of the EW-AHP Attribute Identification Model for the Tunnel Gushing Water Disaster under Interval Conditions and Applications

The gushing water disaster in tunnels is a kind of harmful and risky engineering disaster. It has become a key problem to evaluate the risk of tunnel gushing water accurately and objectively. A case study of a typical highway tunnel is performed for theory and practice analysis. For this reason, the risk identification is carried out on the assessed objects, and 10 evaluation indexes are determined. In turn, the risk evaluation index system and classification standard are established. Furthermore, the entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process are combined to assign the weight to each evaluation index. Therefore, a dynamic risk assessment system, including the pre-evaluation model and the postevaluation model, is constructed with the attribute identification model. As a result, the tunnel section with a high risk of water inrush is accurately assessed, which is consistent with the construction situation on site. Moreover, it is verified that the assessment results are reliable, which can provide a reference for the similar projects.

Research on Real-time Application of Ubiquitous Power Internet of Things Information Based on Smart Sensor Technology

In view of the current situation that it is difficult for the power control centre to take into account the multi-source information to conduct effective risk assessment on the dynamic process of the power grid, the challenges and opportunities faced by the power grid risk assessment under the background of the ubiquitous power Internet of Things are pointed out. The framework of the dynamic risk assessment system for the grid of the Internet of Things. At the same time, in view of the monitoring and fault diagnosis functions of sensor technology, especially gas sensor in transformer oil chromatographic monitoring, the application of ubiquitous power Internet of Things sensor technology in online monitoring of power equipment is discussed. First, the application of online monitoring of power equipment is analysed. The inevitable trend will then discuss in detail the monitoring and fault diagnosis functions of gas sensor technology in transformer oil chromatographic monitoring from sensor technology, gas sensor, transformer oil chromatographic device, and gas analysis method.

Significance of Dynamic Risk Assessment in the Follow-up of Non-distant Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Patients with Intermediate and High Risk

Objective To tailor the subsequent treatment and follow-up strategy,this study dynamically assessed the response to initial therapy in non-distant metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients with intermediate and high risk. Methods A total of 184 non-distant metastatic DTC patients (intermediate-risk 111 cases and high-risk 73 cases) were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Based on the results of initial response assessment (6-12 months after initial therapy),patients were divided into two groups:excellent response (ER) group (n=113) and non-excellent response (non-ER) group (n=71). We compared the differences in clinicopathological features between these 2 groups and evaluated the changes of dynamic response to therapy at the initial and final assessments after initial therapy in all patients. Results Compared with the ER group,the non-ER group showed a larger tumor size (U=2771.500,P=0.000),higher proportion of extrathyroidal invasion (χ 2=4.070,P=0.044),and higher preablative-stimulated thyroglobulin levels (U=1367.500,P=0.000). ER was achieved in 31% of patients in the initial non-ER group [including indeterminate response (IDR) and biochemical incomplete response (BIR)] at the final follow-up only by thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) suppression therapy,among which 63.6% were with intermediate risk (especially the patients with IDR) and 36.4% at high risk. In addition,5.2%(6/113) of patients in the initial ER group were reassessed as IDR,BIR,or even structural incomplete response at the end of the follow-up (among which one patient developed into cervical lymph node recurrence,as confirmed by pathology);the TSH level in these patients fluctuated at 0.56-10.35 μIU/ml and was not corrected in time during the follow-up after initial therapy. Conclusions Some of non-distant metastatic DTC patients with intermediate and high risks who presented initial non-ER may achieve ER only by TSH suppression therapy over time;in contrast,the patients presented initial ER may develop into non-ER without normalized TSH suppression therapy. The dynamic risk assessment system may provide a real-time assessment of recurrence risk and tailor the subsequent treatment and follow-up strategies.

Clinical outcomes of patients with hypercalcitoninemia after initial treatment for medullary thyroid cancer and postoperative serum calcitonin cutoffs for predicting structural recurrence

Persistent hypercalcitoninemia is reported in 40% to 60% of patients with medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) after initial therapy, but their clinical outcomes have not been clearly studied. We evaluated the outcomes of MTC with hypercalcitoninemia and assessed the cutoffs of postoperative serum calcitonin for predicting structural recurrence. A dynamic risk assessment system was used to categorize clinical outcomes in this retrospective study. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to calculate the calcitonin cutoffs for predicting structural recurrence. Among 120 patients operated on, 30 (25%) had persistent hypercalcitoninemia. Of that group, 18 (60%) had biochemical persistent disease and 11 (37%) developed structural identified disease, including 1 death (3%). Postoperative calcitonin <29 pg/mL predicted structural disease with 100% sensitivity, 90.5% specificity, and 100% negative predictive value. One third of the patients with MTC with hypercalcitoninemia experienced structural recurrence, and postoperative basal serum calcitonin might be a simple tumor marker to predict structural recurrence. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: First-1508, 2016.

Comparison of histopathological features and prognosis of classical and follicular variant papillary thyroid carcinoma.

To compare the histopathological features and the outcomes of the follicular variant and classical variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma. Demographic data, histopathological features (tumor size, thyroid capsule invasion, extrathyroidal extension, vascular invasion and multicentricity), lymph node metastasis, local recurrence, distant metastasis and mortality during the follow-up of 258 C-PTC and 153 FVPTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy were compared. The dynamic risk assessment system was used to refine postoperative risk estimates based on the assessment of response to initial treatment. The demographic data showed no significant difference between the two groups. The mean tumor size showed no significant difference between the two groups. The rate of thyroid capsule invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and lymph node metastasis was significantly higher in C-PTC than in FVPTC group, whereas multicentricity and bilobar involvement were significantly higher in FVPTC group than in C-PTC group. Central lymph node metastasis was significantly more frequent in patients with C-PTC than in those with FVPTC (p < 0.0001). Local recurrence was found in 22 (5.3 %) patients overall and was significantly more common in C-PTC group than in FVPTC group. In patients ≥45 years, the local recurrence rate was significantly higher in patients with CPTC than in those with FVPTC. The local recurrence rate in patients <45 years was not significantly different between the two groups of patients. The multicentricity rate was significantly higher in the FVPTC group for both age groups. Dynamic risk assessment showed that the rate of intermediate- and high-risk groups showed no significant difference between C-PTC and FVPTC patients but the rate of low risk patients was higher in FVPTC group than in C-PTC group (p = 0.04). The recurrence rate in low-risk group was found higher in C-PTC compared to FVPTC patients (4.7 vs. 0.7 %, p = 0.04, respectively). The recurrence rate showed no significant difference in both intermediate- and high-risk groups in C-PTC and FVPTC patients. During the follow-up, the rate of distant metastasis and disease-specific mortality was not significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.25). FVPTC is a common subtype of PTC and has a higher rate of multicentricity with bilobar involvement. Although aggressive histopathologic features, such as thyroid capsule invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and lymph node metastasis, are significantly more frequent in CPTC than in FVPTC, the long-term outcome is similar in both subtypes after appropriate initial surgery and postoperative RAI ablation treatment.

Spontaneous remission in thyroid cancer patients after biochemical incomplete response to initial therapy

To validate the American Thyroid Association (ATA) initial risk of recurrence scheme and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) response to therapy re-stratification approach in a large cohort of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) treated outside of the United States. Retrospective chart review. Five hundred and six patients with DTC followed for a median of 10 years after total thyroidectomy and RAI remnant ablation at a major cancer centre in Brazil. Final clinical outcomes were assessed based on American Joint Cancer Committee (AJCC)/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer (UICC) staging, ATA risk stratification and response to therapy assessment (excellent, acceptable, biochemical incomplete and structural incomplete). The AJCC/UICC staging system did not adequately stratify patients with regard to the risk of recurrence/persistent disease. However, the ATA system demonstrated a 13% risk of recurrent/persistent disease in low-risk patients, 36% in intermediate risk patients, and 68% in high-risk patients. Furthermore, an excellent response to therapy decreased the risk of recurrent/persistent disease to 1·4%. At the time of final follow-up, 34% of the biochemical incomplete response patients had been re-classified as having no evidence of disease (NED) without having received any additional therapy beyond continue levothyroxine suppression. Conversely, even after additional therapies, only 9% of the patients with an incomplete structural response were eventually re-classified as NED. These data validate the ATA risk classification as an excellent initial predictor of recurrent/persistent disease and confirm the clinical utility of the MSKCC dynamic risk assessment system in a cohort of patients evaluated and treated outside the United States.