Dynamic Multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium Research Articles

Economic effects of sustainable energy technology progress under carbon reduction targets: An analysis based on a dynamic multi-regional CGE model

Advancing sustainable energy technologies (SET) is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and effectively addressing climate change. Unlike most studies that focus on individual sustainable energy policies, this research constructs a recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with comprehensive sustainable energy modules to analyze the macroeconomic effects of multiple policies related to SET advancement. Covering 8 regions, 13 energy sectors, and 37 intermediate input sectors, the study evaluates the economic and ecological impacts of various SET advancement scenarios from a global economic perspective, aiming for consistent carbon reduction. The findings reveal that : (1) SET implementation reduces electricity costs for residents, optimizes industrial structure, decreases fossil fuel usage, enhances energy use structure, and lowers carbon taxes; (2) the collective impact of renewable energies surpasses that of individual sources, with newer renewables like wind and solar power outperforming traditional ones such as hydropower and nuclear power; and (3) advancements in alternative energy technology have had diverse effects on the global energy environment and economic development. Based on these conclusions, we recommend that: (1) prioritizing the development of solar and wind power in the short term; (2) optimizing SET advancement mechanisms to support progress, including enhancing the market-based price formation for sustainable energy generation and promoting technological innovation and cost reduction; (3) encouraging a synergistic transformation of renewable energy with coal, gas power, and other sources to maximize policy synergies.

Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

AbstractIn response to rapidly growing energy demands, Chinese authorities plan to invest more in hydropower development. However, there are concerns about the possible effects on macroeconomy. This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Chinese economy, to analyze the economic impact of large hydropower development projects. The model features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types of electricity generation. The results suggest that hydropower development will boost economic growth in the project region. Most sectors in the project region will benefit from the hydropower development such as other services, health, and education, while some sectors will suffer a loss in output because of the substantial increase in real wages. For the national, every 10,000 yuan investment can drive the national GDP growth of 1,000 yuan, and the cost is expected to be recovered in ten years. By the end of 2040, the real national wage will be around 0.16% higher than the baseline scenario. The project could only be justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss.

Withdrawn: Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

Withdrawn: Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

Abstract In response to rapidly growing energy demands, Chinese authorities plan to invest more in hydropower development. However, there are concerns about the possible effects on macroeconomy. This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Chinese economy, to analyze the economic impact of large hydropower development projects. The model features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types of electricity generation. The results suggest that hydropower development will boost economic growth in the project region. Most sectors in the project region will benefit from the hydropower development such as other services, health, and education, while some sectors will suffer a loss in output because of the substantial increase in real wages. For the national, every 10,000 yuan investment can drive the national GDP growth of 1,000 yuan, and the cost is expected to be recovered in ten years. By the end of 2040, the real national wage will be around 0.16% higher than the baseline scenario. The project could only be justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss.

An effects analysis of China's metal mineral resource tax reform: A heterogeneous dynamic multi-regional CGE appraisal

The heterogeneity in resource endowment and the “resource curse” require different tax rates for different regions in resource tax ad valorem reform. Considering that copper is critical, widely distributed and closely related to the economy, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is constructed to investigate the impacts of different copper resources tax rates on regional economies, thus obtaining the optimised resource tax rate due to the “resource curse” in different regions. Under different policy scenarios of the copper resource tax, namely, 2%, 5% and 8%, this paper estimates the impacts of resource tax ad valorem reform on copper consumption, macroeconomic variables and sector outputs among 4 representative regions, which is significantly different from the results from national perspective in previous studies. The simulated results are as follows: resource tax ad valorem reform has an enormous influence on copper consumption and has slightly positive impacts on resident income, government revenue, total consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP), while it affects copper-related sectors outputs in a negative way. Additionally, the impacts under the same scenario are significantly different among 4 regions. Moreover, under different tax rate scenarios, copper consumption increases first and then decreases, resulting in an inverted U-shaped pattern. This paper built a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model of copper resource tax ad valorem reform from a regional perspective, thus improving the CGE model on a national scale compared to previous studies and providing an analytical paradigm for the reform of other strategic metal mineral resource taxes in China.

“Lock-in” effect of emission standard and its impact on the choice of market based instruments

A country's existing emission standard policy will lead to a “lock in” effect. When the country plans to adopt new market-based instruments to control greenhouse gas emissions, it must consider this effect as it chooses among instruments to avoid larger efficiency loss. In this paper, we find that the “lock in” effect will cause a kink point to occur on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve. This change of shape for the MAC curve reminds us to be cautious in choosing market-based instruments when applying Weitzman's rule. We also introduce this concept into a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for China and simulate MAC curves for all regions. After applying Weitzman's rule, we propose a timeline for introducing price instruments under different marginal benefit (MB) curve scenarios.

Deforestation Control and Agricultural Supply in Brazil

AbstractBrazil has dramatically increased its agricultural area under cultivation, in the process becoming a major food exporter at the cost of natural forests. A new challenge is to meet the food demands of an expanding world population in the face of pessimistic climate change scenarios and the increasing scarcity of land. Can Brazil help meet rising world food demand while conserving its tropical rainforests? To address this question we simulate outcomes using a large dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model of Brazil to model land use over 20 years in 90 zones and 14 agricultural sectors. The model features a land‐use change module based on a transition matrix obtained from satellite imagery. We analyze two scenarios of deforestation reduction, both linked to actual policy proposals. Model results indicate several mechanisms that allow food output to increase without expanding land supply. In particular, we stress the role of Brazil's vast, low‐yield pasture area as a source of future cropland. Thus, we find that controlling deforestation leads to rather small decreases in food output—which could be neutralized by tiny exogenous productivity improvements. We conclude that the decrease in deforestation will not significantly compromise Brazilian agricultural supply capacity in the foreseeable future.

Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin*

The prolonged drought from 2006–07 to 2008–09 in south-eastern Australia presented severe difficulties for dry-land and irrigation farmers in the southern Murray-Darling basin. A dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (TERM-H2O) is used to estimate the economy-wide small region impacts during and after drought. Drought reduces real GDP in some small regions by up to 20 per cent. Irrigation water trading and farm factor movements alleviate losses. The drought results in an estimated 6000 jobs being lost across the southern basin. Depressed farm investment during drought results in farm capital not returning to baseline levels after drought. Consequently, job numbers in 2017–18 remain 1500 below forecast in the southern basin.

Saving the Southern Murray-Darling Basin: The Economic Effects of a Buyback of Irrigation Water*

We use TERM-H2O in analysing the effects of the Government buying back water from irrigators in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin (SMDB) and thereby increasing river flows. TERM-H2O is a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model containing water accounts. Controversially, our results suggest that buyback would increase economic activity in SMDB. Although a scheme of environmentally useful size would sharply increase the price of irrigation water, there would be little effect on aggregate SMDB farm output. Instead, farm resources would be reallocated between activities. Because farmers are owners of water rights, they would benefit from the price increase induced by buyback.

CGE EVALUATION OF A UNIVERSITY'S EFFECTS ON A REGIONAL ECONOMY: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF EXPENDITURE AND KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS

In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effects of their institutions on their local economies. Typically, these impact studies have concentrated on the demand‐side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative‐static input‐output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply‐side as well as demand‐side effects. There are a range of supply‐side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply‐side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on a region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account.

Regional economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach*

The present study uses a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the micro- and macroeconomic effects of a hypothetical disease or pest outbreak. Our example is a Karnal bunt incursion in wheat in Western Australia. The extent of the incursion, the impact of the disease or pest on plant yields, the response of buyers, the costs of eradication and the time path of the scenario contribute to outcomes at the industry, regional, state and national levels. We decompose the contribution of these individual direct effects to the overall impact of the incursion. This might provide some guidance regarding areas for priority in attempting to eradicate or minimise the impacts of a disease or pest. The study also introduces a theory of dynamic regional labour adjustment in which economic events may lead to both real wage differentials and worker migration between regions.

Modelling The Regional Economic Consequences of Efficiency Gains in The Utilities Sector

There have been a number of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies quantifying the economic impact of national competition policy (NCP). They typically involve long-run comparative static simulations with the most important shock being productivity improvements. These improvements are set equal to the productivity gap between relevant Australian industries and overseas counterparts (as measured by such methods as data envelopment analysis). The size of the estimated gaps and the assumption that NCP will eliminate them has been called into question. This paper develops an alternative approach that uses historical modelling with a dynamic multiregional CGE model (federal-f) to uncover changes, consistent with observed data, in the rate of productivity improvements following NCP. We then investigate the impacts that computed productivity improvements in the utilities sector have had on the economies of Tasmania and mainland Australia, concentrating in particular on the Tasmanian results.