Dynamic Inflation Research Articles

Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs

Given the crucial role of inflation as a key economic barometer, our paper investigates the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and the nine emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) between 1991M1 and 2020M2. Employing the recently developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness approach, we find evidence of a moderate inflation spillover across the sample countries at normal condition. We further point out that inflation spillover effects with the U.S. are more pronounced for the emerging markets with higher openness, the net oil-importing emerging markets, and the emerging markets following free-float exchange rate regimes. More importantly, the inflation spillover index among the system rises dramatically to over 70% under extremely inflationary conditions, implying that the transmission of spiral inflation is very high. Additionally, the time-varying analysis shows that the role of the U.S. in the inflation shock transmission with emerging countries varies between being a net inflation-exporter and inflation-importer over times. Finally, an investigation of the drivers of the inflation spillovers reveals that the U.S. dollar, emerging markets' economic policy uncertainty, and bilateral trade are key determinants of the inflation shock transmission among the system. Our findings justify central banks’ actions in decreasing U.S. dollar reserves to safeguard their domestic currencies.

Dynamic inflation prevents and standardized lung recruitment reverts volume loss associated with percutaneous tracheostomy during volume control ventilation: results from a Neuro-ICU population.

To determine how percutaneous tracheostomy (PT) impacts on respiratory system compliance (Crs) and end-expiratory lung volume (EELV)during volume control ventilation and to test whether a recruitment maneuver (RM) at the end of PT may reverse lung derecruitment. This is a single center, prospective, applied physiology study. 25 patients with acute brain injury who underwent PT were studied. Patients were ventilated in volume control ventilation. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) monitoring and respiratory mechanics measurements were performed in three steps: (a) baseline, (b) after PT, and (c) after a standardized RM (10 sighs of 30 cmH2O lasting 3s each within 1min). End-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) was used as a surrogate of EELV. PT determined a significant EELI loss (mean reduction of 432 arbitrary units p = 0.049) leading to a reduction in Crs (55 ± 13 vs. 62 ± 13 mL/cmH2O; p < 0.001) as compared to baseline. RM was able to revert EELI loss and restore Crs (68 ± 15 vs. 55 ± 13 mL/cmH2O; p < 0.001). In a subgroup of patients (N = 8, 31%), we observed a gradual but progressive increase in EELI. In this subgroup, patients did not experience a decrease of Crs after PT as compared to patients without dynamic inflation. Dynamic inflation did not cause hemodynamic impairment nor raising of intracranial pressure. We propose a novel and explorative hyperinflation risk index (HRI) formula. Volume control ventilation did not prevent the PT-induced lung derecruitment. RM could restore the baseline lung volume and mechanics. Dynamic inflation is common during PT, it can be monitored real-time by EIT and anticipated by HRI. The presence of dynamic inflation during PT may prevent lung derecruitment.

Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China

This study estimates the cross-category inflation spillovers of consumption markets in China in the time-frequency domain, and evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the connectedness. Using the daily internet Consumer Price Index (iCPI), we measure the dynamic inflation connectedness among eight consumption categories in different frequency bands. We find, in the aftermath of the pandemic, inflation rates in eight consumption categories show significant changes. When China was in the active control period from January 2020 to April 2020, the overall connectedness of all frequency bands increases dramatically, but fluctuates widely in the normal control period since April 2020. Further research finds that the fear indexes for COVID in China and globally increase the overall connectedness in the high frequency band, thus indicating that prices tend to move together in bad times of the pandemic in the short-term. The fear for COVID in China and globally increases spillovers received and transmitted at the high frequency in most categories, with the exception of transportation and communication, where the spillovers are reduced. Nevertheless, in the medium-term and long-term, the impacts of the pandemic on directional spillovers show significant heterogeneity across categories. Compared with the fear for the COVID-19 in China, the fear for the global pandemic generates a stronger impact on inflation spillovers. Overall, pandemic-induced shocks have immediate and persistent impacts on cross-category inflation spillovers.

Photonic control of ligand nanospacing in self-assembly regulates stem cell fate

Extracellular matrix (ECM) undergoes dynamic inflation that dynamically changes ligand nanospacing but has not been explored. Here we utilize ECM-mimicking photocontrolled supramolecular ligand-tunable Azo+ self-assembly composed of azobenzene derivatives (Azo+) stacked via cation-π interactions and stabilized with RGD ligand-bearing poly(acrylic acid). Near-infrared-upconverted-ultraviolet light induces cis-Azo+-mediated inflation that suppresses cation-π interactions, thereby inflating liganded self-assembly. This inflation increases nanospacing of “closely nanospaced” ligands from 1.8 nm to 2.6 nm and the surface area of liganded self-assembly that facilitate stem cell adhesion, mechanosensing, and differentiation both in vitro and in vivo, including the release of loaded molecules by destabilizing water bridges and hydrogen bonds between the Azo+ molecules and loaded molecules. Conversely, visible light induces trans-Azo+ formation that facilitates cation-π interactions, thereby deflating self-assembly with “closely nanospaced” ligands that inhibits stem cell adhesion, mechanosensing, and differentiation. In stark contrast, when ligand nanospacing increases from 8.7 nm to 12.2 nm via the inflation of self-assembly, the surface area of “distantly nanospaced” ligands increases, thereby suppressing stem cell adhesion, mechanosensing, and differentiation. Long-term in vivo stability of self-assembly via real-time tracking and upconversion are verified. This tuning of ligand nanospacing can unravel dynamic ligand-cell interactions for stem cell-regulated tissue regeneration.

Dynamic inflation hedging performance and downside risk: A comparison between Islamic and conventional stock indices

Inflation has attained the highest level in decades, with the Russian/Ukrainian war adding upward pressure on prices of energy and food. The recent war has exacerbated the already growth of consumer prices resulting from the COVID-19 and disrupted supply-chains. In a high-inflation environment where investors face inflationary pressures during their investment decision-making, it becomes increasingly important to diversify portfolios towards assets with potential inflation hedging abilities. This paper applies the dependence-switching copula and different dynamic downside risk measures to assess the role of Islamic stocks as a hedge for inflation, in comparison to their conventional counterparts. We use data for the period January 2000–October 2022, covering the periods prior to and post-COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. We consider an investor simply wishing to hedge inflation (or a “safety first” investor) and an investor having a more ambitious target real return. For each of the investor targets, we identify the optimal portfolio composition depending on various scenarios. Prior to the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, Islamic stock indices exhibit the best hedging properties under their bull states, extreme inflation episodes and for an investor willing just to protect against inflation. In considering the post-2020 concerns, Islamic stocks’ diversification potentials are going to be more relevant, reinforcing their strategic benefits as risk mitigation assets. But by increasing the target of real return, it is shown that the weight assigned to the Islamic equities in the portfolio is smaller relative to the conventional stocks. The fund managers and financial analysts can rely on these findings in order to help investors reach a well-diversified portfolio and achieve an optimal risk reduction in an inflationary environment.

Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Assessing the Effects of Inflation Targeting Track Records on Macroeconomic Performance

Inflation Targeting (IT) has become a prevalent monetary policy framework in the past three decades, as more central banks adopted and maintained price stability as their primary monetary policy mandate. Using a dataset of 68 major advanced countries and emerging markets economies, this paper evaluates the effects of inflation targeting countries’ track records on their macroeconomic performance, measured by real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper constructs three novel inflation targeting track record measures and establishes new stylized facts on the heterogeneity of inflation targeting countries’ tendency in managing inflation with respect to their stated objectives. This paper finds evidence that most targeters conduct dynamic inflation targeting by frequently updating inflation target bands, and their band sizes are wide-ranging across IT countries. We empirically study the contemporaneous and future effects of inflation targeting track records on countries’ macroeconomic performance. Results from the dynamic panel and local projection regressions suggest that better IT track records do not lead to superior growth and inflation rates in the short term.

Static and Dynamic Measurements of Compliance and Driving Pressure: A Pilot Study.

RationaleMonitoring tidal cycle mechanics is key to lung protection. For this purpose, compliance and driving pressure of the respiratory system are often measured clinically using the plateau pressure, obtained after imposing an extended end-inspiratory pause, which allows for relaxation of the respiratory system and redistribution of inflation volume (method A). Alternative methods for estimating compliance and driving pressure utilize the measured pressure at the earliest instance of zero flow (method B), the inspiratory slope of the pressure-time tracing during inflation with constant flow (method C), and the expiratory time constant (method D).MethodsTen passive mechanically ventilated subjects, at a large tertiary referral center, underwent measurements of compliance and driving pressure using the four different methods. The inspiratory tidal volume, inspiratory to expiratory ratio, and positive end expiratory pressures were then adjusted from baseline and the measurements re-obtained.ResultsMethod A yielded consistently higher compliance and lower driving pressure calculations compared to methods B and C. Methods B and C most closely approximated one another. Method D did not yield a consistent reliable pattern.ConclusionStatic measurements of compliance and driving pressure using the plateau pressure may underestimate the maximum pressure experienced by the most vulnerable lung units during dynamic inflation. Utilizing the pressure at zero flow as a static measurement, or the inspiratory slope as a dynamic measurement, may calculate a truer estimate of the maximum alveolar pressure that generates stress upon compromised lung units.

A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets

A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets

Numerical and experimental studies on capturing behaviors of the inflatable manipulator inspired by fluidic origami structures

Flexible robotic manipulators have significant advantages especially when the capturing task involves strong collisions in engineering. This work introduces a new design of the inflatable manipulator inspired by fluidic origami structures to perform capturing process. To analyze the dynamic inflation and exhaustion processes of fluidic origami structures, a universal framework combining the particle-bar-spring model with the finite particle method is proposed. Fluid effects are considered by fluid–solid interaction, and the analysis of the inflation process of the original fluidic origami structure helps to verify the validity of the proposed method. Contact model is built to consider the collision in the capturing process. The newly designed inflatable manipulator can achieve overall bending and capture the target successfully. The motion trajectory and capturing process of the inflatable manipulator are simulated and analyzed. A prototype of the inflatable manipulator is processed to perform experimental investigations. The experimental results obtained by the digital image correlation technique are consistent with the numerical results. This work not only provides a new kind of inflatable manipulators inspired by fluidic origami structures, but also proposes a framework to analyze the fluidic origami structures.

Viscoelastic Properties of Inert Solid Rocket Propellants Exposed to a Shock Wave

AbstractInert solid rocket propellant samples were subjected to dynamic inflation experiments, to characterize the viscoelastic response at high strain rates. An oxyacetylene‐driven shock tube created the shock wave, which was used to dynamically pressurize the surface of the samples during the inflation experiments. Two high‐speed cameras captured the deforming samples, which were speckled to measure the full‐field surface displacements using the digital image correlation (DIC) algorithm. An inverse finite element analysis (iFEA) was used to calibrate parameters of a generalized Maxwell model (i. e. Prony series), which was used to characterize the propellants’ viscoelastic response to shock wave exposure. The viscoelastic parameters calibrated using a Prony series with one Maxwell branch provided a better fit with the out‐of‐plane displacement data from DIC. At least 50 % of the energy dissipated, within the inert solid rocket propellant, occurred within 5 ms following shock wave exposure. The softening phenomenon, due to debonding of the particles embedded in the inert solid rocket propellant, occurred since there was a decrease in instantaneous elastic modulus with increased strain rate. The results of this study will add to the limited knowledge of the linear viscoelastic behavior of inert HTPB propellant at high strain rates and may improve the predictive capabilities of health‐monitoring sensors that assess the solid rocket propellant's structural integrity.

Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN

The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model. The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each country in the ASEAN region.

Likely oscillatory motions of stochastic hyperelastic spherical shells and tubes

We examine theoretically the dynamic inflation and finite amplitude oscillatory motion of inhomogeneous spherical shells and cylindrical tubes of stochastic hyperelastic material. These bodies are deformed by radially symmetric uniform inflation, and are subjected to either a surface dead load or an impulse traction, uniformly applied in the radial direction. We consider composite shells and tubes with two concentric stochastic homogeneous neo-Hookean phases, and inhomogeneous bodies of stochastic neo-Hookean material with constitutive parameters varying continuously in the radial direction. For the homogeneous materials, we define the elastic parameters as spatially-independent random variables, while for the radially inhomogeneous bodies, we take the parameters as spatially-dependent random fields, described by non-Gaussian probability density functions. Under radially symmetric dynamic deformation treated as quasi-equilibrated motion, we show that the bodies oscillate, i.e., the radius increases up to a point, then decreases, then increases again, and so on, and the amplitude and period of the oscillations are characterised by probability distributions, depending on the initial conditions, the geometry, and the probabilistic material properties.

ON AUTOMATIC SEGMENTATION METHOD USING IN SOLVING NONLINEAR INITIAL BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS OF MECHANICS OF SOFT-SHELL STRUCTURES

An approach to improving nonlinear initial boundary value problems of thin-walled structures solution algorithm is represented in the work. The algorithm is based on using line method and parameter differentiation method and is oriented to analysis of composite structures behavior at arbitrary physical and geometrical nonlinearity. Obviously, the less restrictions the calculation algorithm imposes on problem statement, the more features of its realization must be taken into account when developing corresponding software module. The drawback of universality of the algorithm represented is that its direct implementation in some cases can lead either to wrong results, or to loss of calculation stability. To avoid these problems we suggest automatic segmentation method using as a step of the algorithm developed. The essence of the method lies in testing fulfillment of the condition of normalized integral matrices of initial and conjugate differential equation systems orthogonality at the step of problem preprocessing. In the points of integration interval where orthogonality condition is not fulfilled segmentation of the interval is carried out. For testing this approach we select nonlinear problems of dynamic inflation of an infinite cylinder of Mooney-Rivlin material and a sphere of Neo-Hookean material by suddenly applied pressure. It is shown that automatic segmentation method allows improving period and amplitude calculation accuracy, as well as increasing iteration process convergence rate. A problem of dynamic inflation of a hinged hemisphere of Neo-Hookean material by suddenly applied pressure is considered. On the basis of its solution results we suggest the approach to determining parameters of calculation algorithm which allow obtaining correct solution.

Inflation Diffusion Through Production Networks

This paper investigates the relationship between input-output networks and the transmission of inflation shocks across manufacturing industries in South Korea, an economy that is open to external shocks. Using the dynamic inflation connectedness measures for 1971-2020, we show that production networks are responsible for the amplification of inflation shocks during times of supply shocks, such as the oil price shocks of 1973-74 and 1979-80. On the contrary, production networks are weakly associated with inflation transmission across sectors if the shocks originate from the demand-side such as the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997.

Dynamic Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus in Bangladesh

This scholarly article seeks to spotlight the inextricable link between economic expansion and inflation in Bangladesh for the past three decades from 1987 to 2017. The nature of the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is a boiling topic of research. The data on both the GDP growth and inflation rates supplied by the World Bank have been used to study the nexus. Different relevant tests (DF, ADF, PP and KPSS test) found unit root in the variables, but this problem is disappeared at the first difference. Cointegration tests display the long-run connection between the variables at the period. Max-Eigen value Statistic Trace Statistic expose there may be a second integrating vector. The vector error correction model (VECM) finds short dynamics among inflation and economic development, and the adjustment speed at 39% and 82% respectively for the variables—GDP growth rate and inflation. This empirical study has found a significant correlation between inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh during the study period

Inflation dynamics analysis in selected MENA countries

The current paper analyses the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in the context of selected MENA countries over the 1990-2016 period. This study has used Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) estimation methods for the empirical analysis. For the dynamic heterogeneous panels, PMG developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) is the most suitable technique. The outcomes by FMOLS asserted that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run, corroborating the long run Philips Curve theory. While, the empirical outcomes obtained by PMG indicate negative linkage between unemployment and inflation in the long run. Nevertheless, the notion of the tradeoff between the inflation and unemployment that expressed by a short-run Phillips curve is not observed in the selected MENA countries. The findings of this study corroborate the hybrid version of NKPC. Moreover, it establishes of the study suggest that the dynamic inflation can be used as a HNKPC model for understanding the inflation behavior in selected MENA countries.

Coin Concentration of Proof-of-Stake Blockchains

The security of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchains rests on the assumption that a large number of contributors have incentives to maintain copies of the underlying distributed ledger. However, excessive block rewards may inflate the value of each unique PoS coin. In this paper, we evaluate the tradeoff between the degree of decentralization and coin inflation in a simulation exercise in which we model the competition between actively staking nodes and their decision to contribute to the network. First, we provide empirical evidence on coin concentration in common PoS networks to guide our simulations and model assumptions. Second, we simulate the evolution of coin concentration among contributors to PoS blockchains with respect to several crypteconomic designs such as coin supply with constant or dynamic inflation, different node selection criteria, and initial coin distributions. Our results based on simulated paths of the dynamics of nodes' coins at stake suggest that decentralization of PoS blockchains can be largely maintained with moderate constant or dynamically adjusted coin inflation while decreasing inflation yields a large loss in active staking nodes over time when coin prices are static. Target node participation rates are not only fairer in terms of coin distribution but also yield higher value-weighted returns for participants.

A Universal Dynamic Inflation Test for Soft Tissue, Tissue Analogues and Grafts

This paper presents a new dynamic inflation experiment method for identifying the viscoelastic parameters of blood vessels and grafts. The material parameters are estimated only from the recorded damped natural pressure oscillation and from the initial geometry of the tested specimens. The identified parameters are dynamic compliance, the damping ratio, fictitious fluid viscosity, frequency, and, for tubular samples, the elastic incremental modulus and the wall viscosity. Several experiments with latex tubular samples were performed to check the suitability of this unique experimental method, and to estimate the limits of its applicability (effects of operational parameters, e.g. the geometry of the samples and the viscosity of the working fluids).

Effects of Some Properties of Drive Tires Used in Horticultural Tractors on Tractive Performance

Many studies on tractive performance of tractor tires have been carried out to solve soil-wheel interaction problems in the last decades. The purpose of this study is to experimentally determine effects on tractive performance of radial and bias-ply drive tires at three different tire lug heights, axle loads and inflation pressures. The experiments were carried out in stubble field conditions. To obtain sufficient performance data, a new single wheel tester was designed and manufactured. Travel reduction, net traction ratio and tractive efficiency varied from 3.3% to 34.1%, 0.24 to 0.93 and from 0.27 to 0.78 respectively depending on drawbar pull. The effects of tire type, lug height, dynamic axle load and inflation pressure on tractive efficiency were found significant (P<0.01) by the performed variance analysis and LSD tests. Radial tires provide better tractive performance compared with bias-ply tires. The tractive efficiency increased especially with increasing dynamic axle load and decreased with increasing tire inflation pressure. Tire dynamic axle load was the major contributory factor on tractive performance as compared with other independent variables. For a given drawbar pull, it was observed that tractive efficiency of radial tire can be maximized by selecting appropriate levels of lug height, dynamic axle load and inflation pressure.

Oscillatory behaviour of compressible hyperelastic shells subjected to dynamic inflation: a numerical study

In this paper, we have investigated the role played by the material compressibility in the oscillatory behaviour of hyperelastic spherical shells subjected to dynamic inflation. For that purpose, we carried out a comprehensive nondimensional numerical analysis using: (i) a finite differences MacCormack’s scheme implemented in MATLAB, and (ii) a finite element model developed in ABAQUS/Explicit (Abaqus Explicit v6.10 user’s manual, version 6.10 edn. ABAQUS Inc., Richmond, 2010). We have detected that numerical dispersion and diffusion impose limits to the capacity of the computations to describe the shock wave that emanates from the inner surface of the shell due to the application of the inflation pressure. Nevertheless, both numerical approaches capture the essential features that describe the oscillatory behaviour of the shell, including the maximum stretch of the oscillation. Using the key nondimensional groups that control the problem at hand, we have conducted a parametric study to assess the role played by nondimensional applied pressure, material compressibility, and nondimensional shell thickness in the oscillatory behaviour of the specimen. We have shown the interplay between the maximum amplitude of the oscillation and the applied pressure and obtained the critical pressure for which the oscillatory behaviour is lost, leading to an unbounded expansion of the spherical shell. Moreover, our calculations have revealed that the wave propagation within the specimen plays a key role in the dynamic response of the shell. The phase portraits used to represent the oscillatory behaviour of the spherical shell show a characteristic sawtooth form that is accentuated with the increase in material compressibility and shell thickness.