Duterte Administration Research Articles

Geopolitical Kingmakers: South Korea and the Philippines as Linchpins amid the China–US Competition

Abstract South Korea and the Philippines hold pivotal geopolitical positions amidst escalating tensions between the USA and China. Both Seoul and Manila find themselves ensnared in the expanding rivalry between these great powers, subjecting them to numerous strategic challenges amid the prevailing regional status quo of instability. Despite their efforts to maintain a delicate balance, often characterized as hedging behavior, the space available for such maneuvering is diminishing, compelling them toward perilous geopolitical alignments. Therefore, this paper seeks to address the following questions: How does the shrinking space to hedge influence the alignment strategies of South Korea and the Philippines? How do their alignment choices impact the geopolitical dynamics of the China–US strategic competition? It argues that as this space contracts, they possess the capability to significantly influence the regional balance of power through their alignment, which we frame as the kingmaker’s role and the power of the weak paradox. Seoul, navigating the complex dynamics of the Korean Peninsula, must carefully weigh its commitments to both Washington and Beijing, particularly in light of ongoing developments with North Korea. Meanwhile, Manila, in the aftermath of the Duterte administration’s alignment oscillations, has sought to establish a clearer strategic direction largely influenced by tensions in the South China Sea. Both are now increasingly tacking hard toward Washington for security assurances and have acknowledged economic security anxieties concerning their links with Beijing. Furthermore, they are placing greater emphasis on upholding the rules-based international order amid growing global uncertainties.

Determining the Public Opinion on Rappler as A News Media Critic of the Administration

With the rise of social media and online platforms wherein information is only just a click away, there is still a grey area as to whether online users trust news sites and pages on the digital space. This study aims to assess and analyze the public perception of Rappler as a news media outlet wherein it highlights its role as a news media critic of the Duterte administration. The researchers collected the needed data to identify the public opinion of Filipino adults who are aged 18 and above regarding Rappler's critical way of reporting. This study is supported by data, articles, and related literature that are mainly focused on media trust, media credibility, and related factors towards the reported trust in media. Moreover, this study expounds the surrounding issues related to Rappler's investigative journalism. The study has been operationalized through online surveys and by setting certain eligibility requirements, which served as the qualifier for the respondents before answering the questionnaire. Additionally, this study shows a glimpse of the Media Effects Theory and its correlation to the study's nature. Upon analyzing the gathered data, results show that most respondents trust Rappler as a news media outlet critical of the Philippine government.

The Blasphemous Divide: News Media Coverage of Politics and Religion in the Philippines

ABSTRACT The news media use the logic of us-versus-them divide in covering politics and religion, but this case alone is insufficient a precondition to label the media as populist. Rather, it is the extensive and unchallenged accounts of official sources including populist politicians that reinforce the pro-populist tendency of media. The article examines the way the news media outlets cover the rhetorical exchanges between the Rodrigo Duterte administration and the church especially the Catholic Church in the Philippines. Based on textual analysis of news articles, the narratives of politics and religion are presented: “hypocritical church” mainstreams the conflict-centered pronouncements of the political leader against the church, “political church” covers the anti-populist but also the nostalgic oratory of the Catholic Church, and “alternative voice” underscores the views of faith-based formations on the fringe of dominant media sources. The narratives of politics and religion matter to the contentious relationship between journalism and democracy as they characterize the capability of news media to amplify, interrogate, and defy populist politics.

Decoding the Duterte Doctrine: Understanding Strategic Changes in Philippine Foreign Policy during Duterte Administration

This article employs a sophisticated neoclassical realist framework to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the intricate landscape of Philippine foreign policy under the administration of former Philippine President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, elucidating the contours of the so-called “The Duterte Doctrine”. This encompasses a nuanced exploration of the nation's role as a middle power, focusing on the pillars of national security, economic diplomacy, and the safeguarding of overseas Filipinos. Employing an analytical lens that intricately weaves systemic pressures and domestic imperatives, the study meticulously unravels the historical trajectory of Philippines-USA relations and the evolving dynamics in the Philippines-China relationship. Methodologically, a discerning review of historical events, policy decisions, and diplomatic maneuvers is undertaken to unveil discernible patterns and strategic recalibrations within the nation's foreign policy landscape. The main findings underscore a diplomatic chess game in the Philippines-China relationship, marked by a strategic departure in defense posture with the cessation of joint military exercises with the U.S. Economic diplomacy, encapsulated in the Duterte Doctrine, manifests as a fervent pursuit of diversified economic partnerships, concurrently raising cogent concerns about potential economic dependence. The analysis accentuates the adaptive resilience of Philippine foreign policy in response to the evolving global landscape, thereby substantively contributing to regional stability. As a middle power, the Philippines astutely leverages its agency amid great power competition while assiduously upholding principles of international law and justice, necessitating nuanced and context-specific approaches to maintain a delicate balance between traditional alliances and emerging economic partnerships.

Unpacking Duterte’s mixed legacy on economic reforms

The Duterte administration (2016–2022) rode into office on the back of the previous governments’ economic reform momentum that, in 2013, eventually culminated in the country’s first ever investment grade rating since the 1986 EDSA revolution. This paper reviews the data and evidence on the economic performance, efforts to institutionalize development, and the backdrop of economic governance that make up the Duterte administration’s economic reform legacy. The Duterte administration’s economic strategy was largely underpinned by the expansion of a public infrastructure program and funded by additional public revenues from a tax reform program intended to further accelerate the country’s growth path. Notwithstanding several key laws, several reforms were widely criticized for falling short in addressing key inequity, governance, and policy implementation issues in the country. The weakening of the rule of law under the Duterte administration also presents an ironic backdrop from which to appreciate his administration’s legislative and institutional reforms. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed deep weaknesses in the Philippines’ economic model. While some structural challenges preceded the Duterte administration, its pandemic handling was nevertheless criticized as exacerbating the pandemic’s social and economic costs. Taken as a whole, the Duterte administration leaves behind a very mixed economic reform legacy.

Mediating Coalitions and the Politics of Civil Rights in the Philippines under Duterte

ABSTRACT The Duterte administration in the Philippines displayed broad hostility towards civil rights. Yet its approach to specific civil rights issues varied significantly. This paper analyses this variation by focusing on two cases: the lowering of the minimum age of criminal responsibility and extra-judicial killings in the war on drugs. In both cases, Duterte and his allies sought to enact and implement policies that infringed civil rights, yet they only succeeded in the latter. The nature and role of mediating coalitions — configurations of actors that opposed, supported, or disengaged from efforts by Duterte and his allies to undermine civil rights — were the key determinants of this variation. The government backed down on lowering the minimum age of criminal responsibility because unified rights groups were supported by sections of the oligarchic elite. But it conducted, incited, and persisted with extra-judicial killings in the war on drugs due to fragmentation among rights groups and an absence of significant support for these groups from oligarchic elites. This variation has significant implications for how scholars understand the politics of civil rights in the Philippines, particularly during the Duterte presidency, as well as strategies to better protect civil rights in the country.

Citizen Perceptions of Crime and Their Effect on Support for Illiberal Democratic Rule

In developing countries, perceptions of crime and actual crime victimization have been linked to less public support for democratic regimes. In countries with weak democratic institutions and limited horizontal accountability, populist presidents can exploit this situation by promoting vertical accountability. This vulnerability of democratic institutions arises because some citizens perceive strong-arm rule as a solution to the perceived increase in social violence. This study focuses on the Philippines, where president Rodrigo Duterte was elected in 2016 on a “law and order” platform centered on an extralegal war on drugs. Analyzing data from two waves of the World Values Survey, I find that perceptions of crime significantly influenced Filipino respondents’ support for authoritarian rule and reduced support for democracy based on civil liberties; the effect became more pronounced under the Duterte administration. Notably, actual crime victimization was not statistically correlated with preference for authoritarianism.

Bowed, Bent, & Broken: Duterte's Assaults on Civil Society in the Philippines

The Philippines has historically been known to have one of the most robust and politically active civil societies in the world. With a deep affinity with democracy, civil society became a reliable bulwark against abuses of power and endemic corruption. However, it came under attack under the populist, illiberal Duterte administration (2016–2022) through intimidation, persecution, massive disinformation, and even outright violence. This article examines why Philippine civil society – despite its attempted pushback against democratic erosion – was generally neutralized by Duterte. Apart from its weakened state given polarizing elite conflicts in the 2000s, Duterte engaged in executive assaults against civil society through the four strategies of exploiting divisions within civil society; securitizing public; regulating civic space to weed out opposition voices; and controlling the media environment. This article concludes by examining the implications of a weakened civil society and prospects for its reinvigoration under a restored Marcos dynasty, which won the 2022 Philippine presidential elections.

Giyera sa Droga (War on Drugs): An Application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour to the Influence of Negative Word-of-Mouth Communication to the Tourists’ Intention to Visit the Philippines

War on drugs campaign commenced in the Duterte Administration in 2016. The campaign resulted to worldwide criticisms which spread negative word-of-mouth about the Philippines. The study applied the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) by Ajzen and Fishbein (1991) to test the negative word-of-mouth (WOM) communication regarding war on drugs to tourists’ intention to visit the Philippines. Structural Equation Modelling was utilized to determine the relationship among the three factors of TPB namely; Attitude, Subjective Norm, and Perceived Behavioral Control to tourist intention. The data was collected from 242 foreign passport holders and through an interview conducted with the Department of Tourism (DOT). The result of the study shows Attitude does not affect tourist intention to travel. On the other hand, Subjective Norm has the strongest influence on tourist intention followed by Perceived Behavioral Control but does not necessarily affect their decision-making behavior towards visiting the Philippines regardless of the campaign.

That Ship Has Sailed: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Marcos Administration

What are the prospects for the Belt and Road (BRI) in the Philippines? How will Marcos’ foreign policy impact BRI projects in the country? The authors argue that the BRI’s prospects are less optimistic now because (i) the Philippines’ experience with Chinese infrastructure projects during Duterte’s time was not overwhelmingly positive and (ii) China continues to occupy the West Philippine Sea. China’s BRI missed its chance of capitalising on the political climate during the Duterte administration.

The Philippines and the liberal rules-based international order

Abstract How do small powers choose the version of an international order to subscribe to? What factors are at play when a state subscribes to the rules-based order or decides to abandon those commitments and shift to an alternative version of order? The argument put forth in this article is that this choice is a function of domestic dynamics and the expected foreign policy gains of the sitting leader. In questioning the automaticity of a small power's choice, the article makes two important contributions. At the conceptual level, it supports the idea that orders persist because of the mutually constitutive actions of great and small powers. It lends credence to the claim of intersubjectivity in international relations and emphasizes that agency is anchored in relations between states. At the policy level, the article finds that while the Philippines seems to automatically subscribe to the United States-led order, pockets of resistance are a function of a colonial past that lingers to this day, which became fertile ground for the country's pivot to China during the Duterte administration. The article closes by highlighting that alliances risk their cohesion and effectiveness without coordinated maintenance, so policy lessons on alliance management are necessary to improve collective security arrangements.

Understanding the Policy Responses of the Philippines towards China’s Economic Statecraft under the Duterte Administration

Abstract This essay is a preliminary study of the Philippines’ foreign policy towards China under President Rodrigo Roa Duterte. It will examine China’s economic statecraft as the sender country towards the Philippines as the target country. The ultimate goal of China’s economic policies is to foster a submissive response from the Philippines over their territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This paper applies the theoretical model proposed by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and Norrin M. Ripsman (2008 and 2013) to study the political theory of economic statecraft, as applied by the sender and target countries. Blanchard and Ripsman argue that domestic factors serve as significant intervening variables in the strategy of the target country’s leaders towards the sender country. Thus, the target country’s leaders will view the sender country’s economic sanctions or economic inducements differently, depending on the domestic socioeconomic situation. By looking at the Duterte administration in the Philippines, this paper intends to expand upon the research agenda of the theory on economic statecraft and international relations. It will shine a light on the puzzling flip-flop of the Philippines’ foreign policy strategy. It shows that Blanchard and Ripsman’s “stateness” conditionalist approach provides a plausible explanation of the Filipino response to China’s economic statecraft. Instead of relying on conventional neo-realist, economic liberalist, or regime-type conditionalist arguments, this paper will focus on the control of leaders over the decision-making environment. However, it does acknowledge that stateness does not fully explain the Philippines’ strategic adjustment towards China, as international variables could have affected the Philippines’ policy response to China’s economic statecraft. This paper, therefore, argues that domestic and international factors play vital roles in affecting the dynamics in the target state and the effectiveness of the sender state’s economic statecraft.

How Selected Pro-Duterte Facebook Pages Framed the ABS-CBN Shutdown Issue: A Discussion on Epistemic Discrediting in Echo Chambers

Abstract This article looks into the discursive frames employed by selected pro-Duterte pages on Facebook that tackled the ABS-CBN shutdown and franchise denial issues in 2020. The legal frames were mostly derived from the findings of the lawmakers’ technical working group (TWG). The political frames, meanwhile, include ABS-CBN’s alleged biased reporting, the victory-over-oligarchs narrative pushed by the Duterte administration and other related pronouncements. The article identifies these frames as reinforcing layers to fortify the echo chamber behavior of pro-Duterte pages through an attack-amplify-attract stratagem. C. Thi Nguyen’s study resembling echo chambers anchored on “epistemic discrediting” was operationalized for this purpose. Data from the selected pro-Duterte pages were mined using the timeline feature of Crowd Tangle as the official social listening tool of Facebook. The article also explored the impact of pro-Duterte pages on ABS-CBN’s stature as a legacy media giant and on the Duterte presidency as a social media-driven administration.

Justices and Political Loyalties: An Empirical Investigation of the Supreme Court of the Philippines, 1987–2020

The Philippine Supreme Court is considered one of Asia’s most activist courts. During the regime of President Rodrigo Duterte (2016–22), however, concerns grew about its independence. This article investigates determinants of the Court’s behavior since the country’s return to democracy in 1987, with particular attention to “loyalty effects”—the likelihood that justices will vote for the government more often when the president who appointed them is in office. Drawing on a data set of seventy major political cases and sociobiographic profiles of the eighty-six justices who voted in them, we test for variables, including freshman effects and strategic defection toward the end of a presidential term. We find that early years on the bench are closely associated with a vote for the appointer’s administration, and the end of a presidential term is weakly associated with a vote against. Under the Duterte administration, voting preferences have been more aligned with the appointer, and factional alliances of justices appointed by different presidential administrations mirror political alignments. These results have practical implications for the fragile constitutional democracy in the Philippines and contribute to understanding of loyalty dynamics in less institutionalized judicial settings.

Drug testing in Philippine schools: Historical overview and implications for drug policy.

With the stated aims of promoting "drug-free" campuses and "instilling in the minds of students" that drugs are harmful, drug testing in schools has been a feature of the Philippines' punitive drug regime for two decades, gaining prominence during the Duterte administration's war on drugs (2016-2022). Drawing on key informant interviews and a desk review of news articles and official documents, this paper presents a historical overview of this policy as well as its impacts on students, educational institutions, and Philippine society. The paper finds that the group most affected by drug testing in schools are the students themselves, who are placed at risk of discrimination and alienation. Schools are also affected by the policy, as it requires expending their human and financial resources. More broadly, the policy perpetuates longstanding popular notions on drugs, children, and the overall idea that individuals carry the "burden of proof" to demonstrate their worthiness for societal inclusion. Drug testing in Philippine schools is ineffective and misguided in its objectives, but it has received widespread support because of its social and political efficacies.

An Analysis of the Variation and Impact of Sino-Philippines Economic and Trade Relations during the Duterte Administration

This paper aims to investigate the variation and impact of Sino-Philippines economic and trade relations during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte. The Duterte administration had implemented a foreign policy that differed significantly from its predecessor, adopting a strategy of "balancing relations equally between China and the United States" and suspending the contested South China Sea arbitration ruling. By analyzing relevant data and policies, this study explores changes in trade volume, investment patterns, and collaborative projects, while assessing the consequences of these transformations for economic development and bilateral relations. The findings reveal a significant shift in Sino-Philippines economic and trade relations during the Duterte administration, leading to a remarkable turnaround in the overall bilateral relationship. This transformation has had profound implications for the Philippines domestic economy, regional cooperation, and interactions between the two nations. The results of this research contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of Sino-Philippines economic and trade relations during the Duterte era and offer insights for further studies.

Climates of control: Violent adaptation and climate change in the Philippines

This paper considers the limits of adaptation as a concept in global environmental governance and advocacy by examining the climate change policy of the populist Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte. By focusing on heterogenous state responses to the 2018–2019 El Niño drought, I demonstrate how the Duterte administration has worked to achieve a violent vision of climate adaptation through a jarring combination of practices: exhorting the devastating reality of climate change; denigrating multilateral mitigation efforts as colonial injustices; subverting indigenous peoples' land rights; and fostering the extrajudicial assassination of activists. Though Duterte's wider climate change policies are often viewed as a strategic distraction or the isolated product of an erratic populist, I argue that these recent responses to climate change in the Philippines, which fuse decolonial and nationalist sensibilities to confrontational forms of illiberalism, should be examined as part of the larger unfurling of illiberal adaptation politics across Philippine history and the Global South. These politics, and their considerable (though far from total) local resonance, challenge both universalist Western political rationalities and new directions in climate justice movement calling for ontological inclusivity. I highlight the need for a closer examination of the origins, practices and implications of violent adaptions.

The Philippines’ responses to Chinese gray zone operations triggered by the 2021 passage of China’s New Coast Guard Law and the Whitsun Reef standoff

This article scrutinizes the Philippines’ strong reactions to the Chinese gray zone operations in the South China Sea, particularly during the Whitsun Reef stand-off in March 2021. Despite the Duterte Administration’s appeasement policy toward China, these gray zone operations have remained unabated since 2016. They were exacerbated by the passage of the China Coast Guard (CCG) law in January 2021. Initially, Philippine officials downplayed these developments but eventually realized that China was gradually gaining control of the disputed waters in the South China Sea without firing a single shot. To counter these Chinese maritime gambits legitimized by the CCG law, the Philippines has lodged diplomatic protests, demonstrated its modest naval capabilities, and capitalized on the assurance of U.S. defense and security commitments to a long-time Southeast Asian ally. Through these measures, the Philippines stands up to China to subvert its intimidating gray zone operations that aim to render contending states helpless, submissive, and inactive.

The Philippine defence-development-disaster security paradigm

ABSTRACT The Philippines suffers from three threats to its national security. Firstly, unlike advanced states, it faces both external and internal assaults on its political and territorial sovereignty. Secondly, self-sustaining economic security remains elusive, with the country failing to emulate the economic successes of its ASEAN neighbours, Singapore and Malaysia. Thirdly, the archipelago must constantly contend with the destabilising effects of natural disasters, including volcanic eruptions, typhoons, and earthquakes. Manila's policy responses to these three disparate, but interlinked threats, have been conditioned by four centuries of Spanish, American, and Japanese occupation. The Philippine government remains a work in progress as diverse efforts to build institutional capacity have produced uneven results. Nevertheless, recent innovative policy approaches are instructive. These are framed around what might be termed a D3 (Defence-Development-Disaster) security paradigm, covering external military security, internal security and non-traditional security, including the Duterte administration's “drug war”

Philippine-US Alliance in Transition: Towards Polycentric Relations?

The fragile Indo-Pacific security environment calls for recalibrating the Philippine-US alliance. Instead of attempting to revive the anachronistic hub-and-spokes system that tottered during the Duterte administration, Washington and Manila should move towards a polycentric type of relations that considers substate actors in conducting foreign affairs. This would be necessary to address traditional and non-traditional security concerns endangering the region’s stability.