Dumitrescu-Hurlin Causality Test Research Articles

Unraveling the Effects of Economic Growth and Unemployment on Tobacco Use: A Panel Data Approach.

The economic situation is recognized as a significant factor influencing tobacco consumption. Accordingly, this research aims to investigate the relationship between economic growth, unemployment, and tobacco use. This investigation employs data from 1985 to 2019 to elucidate the relationship between economic growth, unemployment, and tobacco consumption in a select group of OECD countries. Employing Pedroni and Johansen-Fisher Panel Co-Integration Tests, we assess the co-integrating relationships. Furthermore, FMOLS and DOLS techniques are applied, complemented by the Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Test. FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that a 1% increase in GDP leads to a 6.46% and 7.29% rise in tobacco consumption, respectively, while GDP squared results in a 0.39% and 0.43% decrease. However, both tests failed to establish a significant relationship between tobacco consumption and unemployment. Cointegration was confirmed by Johansen-Fisher and Pedroni tests. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests revealed direction of granger causality from economic growth to tobacco consumption, but not with unemployment. Tobacco consumption declined across all countries studied. Economic growth shows a positive association, while GDP squared has a negative association, indicating an inverted U-shaped relationship. No significant relationship was found with unemployment in the employed tests. In addition to the measures implemented by countries to reduce tobacco consumption, economic factors also exert a significant relation with smoking behavior. The available results suggests that economic growth initially associated with increase in tobacco consumption but reduction in later stages indicating a long-term inverse relationship between economic growth and tobacco use.

How do nuclear energy consumption, environmental taxes, and trade globalization impact ecological footprints? Novel policy insight from nuclear power countries

Energy systems should grab the opportunity to adopt clean energy sources and technologies to mitigate environmental impacts. This work explores the influence of nuclear energy consumption on reducing the ecological footprint, considering environmental taxes and trade globalization in five nuclear-powered economies from 1990 to 2021. This study employed several econometric models, including the preliminary analysis, the CS-ARDL test for long-run forecasting and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test. The long-run findings revealed that nuclear energy usage and environmental taxes support reducing environmental costs by lowering the ecological footprint. However, trade globalization raises environmental costs by increasing the ecological footprint. Additionally, causality test outcomes show that a one-way causal link exists among nuclear energy and the ecological footprint. The results highlight government actions prioritizing investment in nuclear energy consumption projects and encouraging nuclear energy efficiency to mitigate ecological degradation and lead to a low-carbon future. This viewpoint also encourages policymakers to make well-informed decisions to uphold ecological sustainability.

Pharmaceutical consumption, economic growth and life expectancy in the OECD: the application of a new causal direction from dependency algorithm and a DeepNet process

PurposeThe objective of this study is to reevaluate the correlation among pharmaceutical consumption, per capita income, and life expectancy across different age groups (at birth, middle age, and advanced age) within the OECD countries between 1998 and 2018.Design/methodology/approachWe employ a two-step methodology, utilizing two independent approaches. Firstly, we con-duct the Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise panel causality test, followed by Machine Learning (ML) experiments employing the Causal Direction from Dependency (D2C) Prediction algorithm and a DeepNet process, thought to deliver robust inferences with respect to the nature, sign, direction, and significance of the causal relationships revealed in the econometric procedure.FindingsOur findings reveal a two-way positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and total pharmaceutical sales per capita. This contradicts the conventional notion that health expenditures decrease with economic development due to general health improvements. Furthermore, we observe that GDP per capita positively correlates with life expectancy at birth, 40, and 60, consistently generating positive and statistically significant predictive values. Nonetheless, the value generated by the input life expectancy at 60 on the target income per capita is negative (−61.89%), shedding light on the asymmetric and nonlinear nature of this nexus. Finally, pharmaceutical sales per capita improve life expectancy at birth, 40, and 60, with higher magnitudes compared to those generated by the income input.Practical implicationsThese results offer valuable insights into the intricate dynamics between economic development, pharmaceutical consumption, and life expectancy, providing important implications for health policy formulation.Originality/valueVery few studies shed light on the nature and the direction of the causal relationships that operate among these indicators. Exiting from the standard procedures of cross-country regressions and panel estimations, the present manuscript strives to promote the relevance of using causality tests and Machine Learning (ML) methods on this topic. Therefore, this paper seeks to contribute to the literature in three important ways. First, this is the first study analyzing the long-run interactions among pharmaceutical consumption, per capita income, and life expectancy for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) area. Second, this research contrasts with previous ones as it employs a complete causality testing framework able to depict causality flows among multiple variables (Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests). Third, this study displays a last competitive edge as the panel data procedures are complemented with an advanced data testing method derived from AI. Indeed, using an ML experiment (i.e. Causal Direction from Dependency, D2C and algorithm) it is believed to deliver robust inferences regarding the nature and the direction of the causality. All in all, the present paper is believed to represent a fruitful methodological research orientation. Coupled with accurate data, this seeks to complement the literature with novel evidence and inclusive knowledge on this topic. Finally, to bring accurate results, data cover the most recent and available period for 22 OECD countries: from 1998 to 2018.

Advancing environmental sustainability in the G-7: The impact of the digital economy, technological innovation, and financial accessibility using panel ARDL approach

This study examines the impact of the digital economy, technological innovation, financial accessibility, and urbanization on CO2 emissions in the G-7 region from 1990 to 2019. The analysis employed Cross-Sectional Dependence (CSD) and Slope Homogeneity tests, revealing the presence of CSD issues and heterogeneous slope coefficients. First- and second-generation panel unit root tests indicated no unit root problem within the dataset, with variables showing mixed integration orders. Panel cointegration tests confirmed that the variables are cointegrated over the long run. To assess the short-run and long-run impacts of the explanatory variables on CO2 emissions, the study utilized the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that the digital economy significantly reduces CO2 emissions, while economic growth, technological innovation, financial accessibility, and urbanization increase CO2 emissions in the G-7 region. The robustness of the Panel ARDL results was validated using Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, Augmented Mean Group (AMG), and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimations. Additionally, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test revealed a unidirectional causal relationship between the digital economy and CO2 emissions, GDP and CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions and technological innovation. Furthermore, bidirectional causality was found between financial accessibility and CO2 emissions, as well as between urbanization and CO2 emissions. These findings provide comprehensive insights into the dynamic interactions between economic, technological, and environmental variables in the G-7 region, highlighting the complexity of achieving sustainable development.

Can board funds, bank credit, and economic development improve food production? Evidence from South Asia

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of board funds, banking credit, and economic development on food production in the context of South Asian economies (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal).Design/methodology/approachThis study used data from the World Development Indicators covering the years 1991–2019. To investigate the relationship between the variables of the study, we employed the panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, cross-sectional dependence test, fully modified least squares (FMOLS), and panel dynamic least squares (DOLS) estimators.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that board funding significantly increase food production; however, banking credit had a negative impact. Furthermore, the findings indicate that economic development, Arable land, fertilizer consumption, and agricultural employment play a leading role in enhancing food production. The results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test also show substantiated the significance of the causal relationship among all variables.Practical implicationsSouth Asian countries should prioritize board funding, bank credit, and economic development in their long-term strategies. Ensuring financial access for farmers through micro-credit and public bank initiatives can spur agricultural productivity and economic growth.Originality/valueThis study is the first to combine board funding, banking credit, and economic development to better comprehend their potential impact on food production. Instead of using traditional approaches, this study focuses on these financial and developmental aspects as critical determinants for increasing food production, using evidence from South Asia.

Impact of economic growth and financial development on renewable energy use in selected oil-exporting countries

The aim of this study is to explore the influence of economic growth and financial development on renewable energy consumption. For the purpose of analysis, this investigation uses annual data on renewable energy consumption, economic growth, financial development, consumer price index, domestic investment, and foreign direct investment for 13 major oil-exporting countries, including Algeria, Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Republic of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Malaysia, Sudan, and Russia, during the period 1990-2020. The study employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test to conduct the empirical analysis. The Hausman test determines the PMG estimator as the most suitable among the Mean Group (MG), Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE), and PMG estimators. This research shows that economic growth and financial development have a positive and significant long-term impact on renewable energy consumption. This suggests that as the economy grows and financial systems develop, there is a potential for an increase in the use of renewable energy. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test and the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method support these findings. From a policy standpoint, promoting economic growth and financial development could lead to greater use of renewable energy and contribute to sustainable development in oil-exporting countries.

CO2 Emissions, Remittances, Energy Intensity and Economic Development: The Evidence from Central Asia

Remittances are a crucial part of economic expansion, especially in Central Asia. Nevertheless, it is not possible to ignore its environmental damage. This paper is a pioneer in investigating the association among CO2 emissions, remittances, energy consumption and economic development in Central Asian countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) spanning the period of 1995–2022. As a methodology, the FMOLS estimator is applied to check linear impact and long-run association as well. Panel threshold regression model and 2SLS method are applied to examine potential non-linear relations among the studied variables. Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators are employed to control the endogeneity issue among the variables of interest. The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship among the studied variables. Precisely, applying the FMOLS method, remittances negatively impact CO2 emissions in the long run. The relationship between CO2 emissions and remittances is distorted when the endogeneity issue is considered with the Panel threshold regression model, 2SLS method, and Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators. This distortion validates the linear impact of remittances on CO2 emissions in CA. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test shows that all independent variables have a causal effect on the dependent variable, validating the effect of the studied variables. Consequently, decision-makers should facilitate remittances towards more environmentally friendly and sustainable solutions to prevent the detrimental effects of remittance inflows on carbon emissions in Central Asia.

Financial development and environmental quality nexus: Testing the double materiality hypothesis

ABSTRACT A novel paradigmatic concept has recently been introduced in the financial development-environmental quality nexus, referred to as the double materiality concept. This concept proposes that not only is financial development significant for the environment, but the environment also has a significant impact on financial development. We examine this financial development-environmental quality nexus by proposing and empirically testing the double materiality hypothesis. The cross-sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimations and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test are applied in the top-ten CO2 emitting countries over the period 1990–2018. We empirically confirm the validity of the double materiality hypothesis in these countries. Specifically, the cross-sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation results show that financial development exhibits a positive impact on the level of CO2 whilst the level of CO2 emissions hinders financial development in the top-ten CO2 emitters. Similarly, the causality test results show that there is a bidirectional association between the financial development and the level of CO2 emissions. Thus, regulatory authorities should take proactive approaches by assessing the externalities of climate-related risks and the potential channels that may trigger systemic risks.

Investigating the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, renewables and pollution across diverse regions in the globalization era

This paper delves into an econometric analysis to uncover the differences between Nordic European Countries - NEC (Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden) and South-East European Countries - SEEC (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary). The focus is on exploring the interplay among electricity generation from Renewable Energy Sources (RES), CO2 emissions, urban population and GDP per capita in these two European regions. The study employs cross-sectional dependence, first and second-generation panel unit root tests, Pedroni panel and Westerlund panel cointegration tests, ARDL, Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test to establish the relation among variables. The findings reveal that in both regions, CO2 emissions are significantly influenced by GDP per capita, urbanization and RES generation. Furthermore, urbanization plays an important role. When examining causality in SEEC, three bidirectional relationships are observed: urbanization and CO2, urbanization and GDP, urbanization and generation from RES, and two unidirectional causalities: CO2 and GDP, generation from RES and CO2. In contrast, for the NEC, there are two bidirectional causalities: urbanization and CO2, urbanization and generation from RES, and two unidirectional causalities: GDP and CO2, generation from RES and CO2. These results highlight the nuanced and varied nature of environmental and economic dynamics across various European regions.

The Nexus Between Remittances, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Healthcare and Environmental Sustainability In CIS Countries

Globally, the issues about sustainable development are on the increase, especially in emerging economies as CIS countries. Due to rising migration and remittances, natural resources are degraded, and economic expansion might pose serious challenges to the environment and healthcare. Thus, this research looks at how life expectancy is affected by economic growth, natural resources and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 11 CIS countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) by con-trolling energy consumption from 1990 to 2019. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test discloses a cointegration between life expectancy, remittances, natural resources, economic growth, and CO2 Emissions. The empirical analysis indicates that life expectancy is positively correlated with re-mittances and GDP while water withdrawal and CO2 emissions have negative impact on life ex-pectancy in the case of CIS countries. Our empirical findings may provide insightful policy implications towards strengthening the public healthcare system. Therefore, appropriate policy responses can be developed towards advanced public healthcare and environmentally sustainable sources of energy in order to achieve the sustainable development goals.

The Unseen Ripples: Examining the Links Between COVID-19-induced Disruptions and Trade Dynamics in Asia-Pacific Countries

The global COVID-19 epidemic and the strategies that were adopted to restrict its spread, such as lockdowns, had a significant impact on international trade. While the health crisis and the lockdown restrictions were linked, their repercussions on world trade patterns were distinct. This study examines trade data from 30 Asian-Pacific countries to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their trading patterns. In addition, it looks at the effects of COVID-19-related policies on trade flows and explores the causality between changes in trade flows and policies induced by COVID-19. The cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model, Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (JKS) causality test and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test were employed to examine trade patterns of the Asia-Pacific amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of CS-ARDL model showed that COVID-19 cases, deaths and policy-related indices induced a noteworthy and negative influence on export and import flows of Asia and Pacific both in the short- and long run. However, with few exceptions, on average, the impact of COVID-19-related measures is far bigger than that of COVID-19 deaths as well as cases in the long run. Further, the study found that the COVID-19 cases, deaths and COVID-19 policy-related measures have a Granger-causal relationship with exports and imports. Therefore, fostering regional cooperation, strengthening trade agreements and prudent management of COVID-19-induced policies will be essential in a crisis like COVID-19 to streamline trade processes and to achieve the optimum level of exports and imports.

Foreign direct investment and environmental degradation: Can intellectual property rights help G20 countries achieve carbon neutrality?

The G20 comprises rich, industrialized, and powerful nations that advance the world economy through foreign direct investment (FDI). Nevertheless, these countries account for the largest share of global carbon dioxide emissions (CO2). Enforcing intellectual property rights (IPRs) has become a useful tool for stimulating clean technologies to mitigate climate change. This study examines how IPR enforcement moderated the inflow of FDI and carbon emissions in the G20 from 2001 to 2017. We applied the Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error technique, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests. The results show that FDI increases emissions, thus confirming the pollution haven effect. Long-term estimates suggest that the moderating role of IPRs in FDI significantly reduces environmental degradation. Causality analysis shows that FDI causes CO2 emissions in the long run, and carbon emissions enforce IPR regulations. Furthermore, we observed bidirectional causality between IPRs, FDI relationships, and carbon emissions. Based on these results, policymakers should enhance IPR policies and encourage clean technology through FDI among G20 members. In addition, governments should promote the clean-up of industrial processes, green finance, and the consumption of eco-friendly technologies, such as renewable energy, to achieve carbon neutrality.

BRICS and the climate challenge: navigating the role of factor productivity and institutional quality in CO2 emissions.

The BRICS countries are important contributors to global efforts aimed at preventing a climate catastrophe. These countries account for half of the total emissions generated by the G20 nations. In this context, this paper examines the relationship between total factor productivity (TFP) and CO2 emissions (CE) in BRICS countries from 1996 to 2022, with institutional quality serving as a moderating factor. Moreover, a diverse range of methodologies was employed to address the problem of cross-sectional dependence; i.e., the CS-ARDL technique is used to analyze the relationship between variables in both the long and short-run. The AMG and CCEMG methods are employed for robustness analysis, while the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test is used to assess causality. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that TFP is positively associated with CE. Conversely, we find that institutional quality has a negative impact on CE. Furthermore, the study confirms that the interaction between TFP and institutional quality has a negative effect on CE. This implies that an improvement in institutional quality leads to a decrease in CE, as it strengthens the regulatory system governing CE and reduces pollution. Environmental policy must include economic flexibility and policy unpredictability in order to meet CO2 reduction targets. In addition, the study has identified bidirectional causal links between CE and variables such as TFP, institutional quality, and other control variables. According to our study, the BRICS countries should encourage digitalization and renewable energy production while preserving a reasonable standard of institutional quality since they have significant resource advantages in the renewable energy sector.

The determinants of sustainable transportation in East Asian countries: Does the moderating role of institutional quality matter

Transportation has a profound effect on the environment, aggravating air pollution, climate change, and natural resource depletion. Additionally, the construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructure contribute to deforestation and habitat loss. Therefore, the aim of this research is to investigate the correlation between c02 emissions, natural resource depletion, trade, FDI inflow and transportation in a chosen number of eastern Asian countries, with a unique perspective of examining the influence of institutional qualities as a moderator among these factors. The analysis involves the utilization of CS-ARDL and dumitrescu-hurlin causality test to examine the data. The findings suggest that institutional qualities have a positive impact on the relationship between c02 emissions and transportation, reversing the negative association. Additionally, trade has a negative correlation with transportation, this can be explained by the fact that weak institutional quality can lead to corruption and a lack of transparency, which can discourage foreign investment and trade in the transportation sector. On the other hand, resource depletion and FDI inflows affect negatively the transportation services in East Asian countries. Therefore, the study highlights the significance of effective governance, regulation, and management of institutions in promoting better transportation planning and coordination, ultimately leading to sustainable transportation service.

Could Globalisation and Renewable Energy Contribute to a Decarbonised Economy in the European Union?

This study investigates the impact of globalisation, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in 26 European Union (EU) countries, in the period 1990–2020. Second-generation panel unit root tests are applied, the Westerlund cointegration test is used, and a panel of fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) techniques are employed to estimate the long-term relationship between variables. The causality relationship among the considered variables is identified using the heterogeneous Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test. It was found that globalisation and renewable energy consumption contributed to the carbon emissions’ mitigation, while economic growth induced their increase. The results are robust when control variables (i.e., financial development, foreign direct investment, and urbanisation) are added to the model. Foreign direct investment and urbanisation are contributors to carbon emissions’ increase, whereas financial development induces their decrease. The effect of the considered variables on carbon emissions is differentiated by economic development and level of institutional quality. Unidirectional causality relationships were identified from globalisation to carbon emissions and from carbon emissions to foreign direct investment and bidirectional relationships were found between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, financial development, and carbon emissions. The policy implications of the results are also discussed.

Impact of remittance on economic growth and environmental quality in the purview of energy use, regulatory quality, and financial development

AbstractThis study investigates the asymmetric effects of remittance on economic growth (EG) and environmental quality in the purview of energy use, regulatory quality (REQ), and financial development (FD) in the top 20 remittance‐earning countries. It employs panel data from 1996 to 2020 and utilizes the generalized least square (GLS) estimation and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test. The GLS result shows that remittance inflow has an asymmetric effect on EG as well as environmental quality, validated by a long run asymmetric test. Remittance shocks are beneficial for both EG and maintaining environmental quality in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Energy use; FD, and REQ all positively affect EG, whereas FD, REQ, and gross domestic product (GDP) are favorable for the environment except for energy use. According to a supplemented analysis, remittance and regulatory quality's combined influence on EG and CO2 are favorable, but regulatory quality's impact on the former is detrimental for both models. The results of the GLS estimation are endorsed by the causality analysis, which affirms their reliability. Positive remittance shock and financial development have bidirectional causality with EG, and both shocks of remittance and financial expansion have a two‐way association with CO2 emissions. Only REQ is affected by CO2 emissions. The outcomes have important policy implications for enhancing remittance inflow, ensuring smooth energy availability, a prudential financial system, and improving REQ to influence EG and control CO2 emissions effectively.

Tourism, Economic Growth, and Environmental Pollution in APEC Economies, 1995–2020: An Econometric Analysis of the Kuznets Hypothesis

Tourism plays an important role in fostering economic growth within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum member countries. Nevertheless, the development of this sector has resulted in significant depletion of natural resources and pollution. This research aims to determine the relationship between tourism, economic growth, and environmental pollution in both developing and developed APEC economies from 1995 to 2020. By adopting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, two dynamic panel data models are estimated employing Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and causal relationships are established using the Dumitrescu–Hurlin test. The results indicate that tourism and economic growth have had a positive influence on the rise of environmental pollution in both groups of economies during the specified period. This research offers new insights by analyzing twelve developing and nine developed APEC economies over a span of 25 years, estimating two DOLS models, conducting Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests, and presenting evidence of EKC for both types of economies. Consequently, the implementation of policies that foster the preservation of natural areas, the utilization of renewable energies, and the promotion of sustainable tourism practices is recommended.

Exploring the dynamic effect of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in Africa: evidence from panel PMG estimator

The relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution continues to attract significant research interest for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers all over the globe. Theoretically, the environmental benefit of economic growth should be greater than its negative externality with higher level of development. However, from the African perspective, countries with higher economic performances often face several environmental challenges, which raises the doubt whether economic growth helps or constrains environmental quality improvement. Under the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, this study re-examined the effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions conditional on the dynamics of urbanization, renewable energy, and good governance across 47 African countries using panel data from 1996 to 2019. We employ panel cointegration tests to establish whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among our variables. We also apply pooled mean group ARDL (PMG-ARDL) techniques and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test to determine the long- and short-run effects of economic growth, urbanization, renewable energy consumption, and good governance on CO2 emissions. The results from the PMG estimator validate the EKC hypothesis since a 1% surge in GDP per capita increases emissions by 0.61% in the long run, while a 1% increase in its square decreases emissions by 0.03%. In the short-run, economic growth does not exercise any significant effect on emissions. Furthermore, results indicate a significantly negative and positive long-run effect of renewable energy and governance, respectively. Finally, our causality test shows bidirectional relationship between CO2 emissions and all the explanatory variables. Henceforth, we provided policy implications based on the study’s results.

The role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: Emerging markets and middle-income economies

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and financial development was analyzed for emerging markets and middle-income economies. The effect of financial development on growth, whether there is institutional quality or not, has also been investigated. In addition, which financial development indicator is more effective for growth has been examined. Six institutional quality indicators and seven financial development indicators were used. According to the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test results, there is a causality relationship between all financial development indicators and growth. According to the estimation results, financial development indicators have a positive effect on growth in the presence of institutional quality. However, if institutionalization is not included in the model, the effect of financial development indicators on economic growth is statistically insignificant.

Catalysts of Economic Welfare in Africa: A Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

Abstract This study provides empirical perspectives on the catalysts of economic welfare in Africa, drawing inference from macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic factors. Leveraging a sample of a balanced panel dataset of 35 countries across Africa, this study provides novel applications of the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag methodology to economic welfare analysis in Africa. Issues of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity were accounted for whilst establishing causal relationships between economic welfare proxied by the Human Development Index and macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic drivers of welfare. Based on cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag estimation results, a 1% increase in economic growth was shown to account for a 0.233 percent and 0.253 percent increase in economic welfare in the long run and short run respectively. In addition, technology accounted for a 1.81 percent increase in economic welfare in the long run. The outcome of the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test demonstrated causality between trade openness, government effectiveness, economic growth, and economic welfare.