Drug-related Homicides Research Articles

Market Dynamics and Systemic Violence: A Longitudinal Examination of Market Penetration, Entry Deterrence, and Excess Capacity in the Illicit Drug Market

The nexus between lethal violence in the drug market and drug-selling behavior remains a topic of interest among social scientists. Although the current body of literature demonstrates strong empirical evidence of systemic violence, questions still endure as to the underlying causal mechanisms responsible for this violence. This study uses 10 years of prosecution data aggregated at the county level to investigate whether drug-related homicide is predictive of first-time drug-selling offending. Results from a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis suggest that new entrants are using lethal violence to penetrate the illegal drug market. As drug-related homicides increase, the percent of first-time offenders being prosecuted for a drug-selling offense increases markedly. This relationship persists even after controlling for non–drug-related homicide. This finding suggests that lethal violence is being used primarily by new drug sellers, possibly to help them gain entry into a competitive drug market.

Breaking sad: drug-related homicides and mental well-being in Mexico

This paper examines the effect of drug-related homicide rates on mental well-being among adults in Mexico, amid a conflict known as the “Mexican Drug War,” during the period 2006–2012. The empirical strategy consists, on the one hand, of a multilevel analysis for mental well-being outcomes at the individual level and, on the other hand, of a difference-in-difference approach for aggregate mental well-being variables at the municipality level. Results suggest no effect of violence on clinical and non-clinical mental well-being for men and on clinical mental well-being for women. Yet, findings indicate a statistically significant effect between 3.5 and 4.9 percentage points of drug-related violence on non-clinical mental well-being of women in Mexico. These results are robust to a variety of specifications, falsification tests and data sources of drug-related homicide rates.

Staying the course in Mexico: the role of the US in the drug war, 2006–present

With drug-related violence reaching record levels in Mexico, there has been growing debate over its causes. US and Mexican officials blame many factors, including problems with their strategy in the drug war, fighting among cartels, corruption in police forces, an ineffective legal justice system and US drug demand. In this paper, I argue that the Mérida Initiative, a multi-billion dollar programme of US assistance, is an important additional factor. Drug-related violence increased in the years after the implementation of the Mérida Initiative, declined when Mexican officials paused new programmes in 2012 and increased again as US and Mexican officials implemented new Mérida programmes in the following years. Over the same time period, drug-related homicides and complementary counternarcotics assistance from the US Department of Defense are positively correlated. Using US records, I show that US officials have been willing to overlook the growing violence because they have been more focused on achieving their economic and strategic objectives. I conclude that their actions have played a significant role in increasing drug-related violence while starting an ominous new phase of US imperialism in Mexico.

Mortes violentas no México no século XXI: uma drástica mudança de cenário

O México tornou-se uma das nações mais violentas do mundo e os indicadores de violência, que até então eram baixos, alcançaram os patamares mais elevados já mensurados até então. Entre os anos de 2006 e 2012 ocorreram cerca de quarenta e sete mil homicídios relacionados ao conflito entre organizações criminosas e o Estado. Em 2010, os homicídios relacionados à guerra às drogas representaram 45% de todos os homicídios cometidos no país. De acordo com Rios, um dos autores utilizados nessa pesquisa, a cidade de Juarez chegou a marca de 216 homicídios por grupos de cem habitantes, valor superior a territórios em zona de guerra como Bagdá, a capital do Iraque. Este trabalho possui como objetivo central analisar a ascensão da criminalidade violenta, com foco nos homicídios, no México, tendo como base a tipologia de Moser, cujos fatores políticos/ institucionais, econômicos e sociais, aparecem como categorias centrais após décadas com baixos índices de criminalidade.

Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war

The goal of this paper is to examine the effect of inequality on crime rates in a unique context, Mexico's drug war. The analysis exploits an original dataset containing inequality and crime statistics on more than 2000 Mexican municipalities over a 20-year period. To uncover the causal effect of inequality on crime, we use an instrumental variable for the Gini coefficient that combines the initial income distribution at the municipality level with national trends. Our estimates indicate that a one-point increment in the Gini coefficient between 2007 and 2010 translates into an increase of more that 36% in the number of drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. The fact that the effect found during the drug war is substantially greater is likely caused by the rise in rents to be extracted through crime and an expansion in the employment opportunities in the illegal sector through the proliferation of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs), accompanied by a decline in legal job opportunities and a reduction in the probability of being caught given the resource constraints faced by the law enforcement system. Combined, the latter factors made the expected benefits of criminal activity shift in a socially undesirable direction after 2007.Sector Board: Poverty (POV)

On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides

We are first paper to study the economic effects of drug-trafficking organization violence. We exploit the manyfold increase in homicides in 2008-2011 in Mexico resulting from its war on organized drug traffickers to estimate the effect of drug-related homicides on house prices. We use an unusually rich dataset that provides national coverage on house prices and homicides and exploit within-municipality variations. We find that the impact of violence on housing prices is borne entirely by the poor sectors of the population. An increase in homicides equivalent to one standard deviation leads to a 3% decrease in the price of low-income housing. In spite of this large burden on the poor, the willingness to pay in order to reverse the increase in drug-related crime is not high. We estimate it to be approximately 0.1% of Mexico's

Time series applications to intelligence analysis: a case study of homicides in Mexico

The scale of lethal violence in Mexico seen in the past decade has been a pressing concern for both Mexican and US officials, including law enforcement organizations, intelligence agencies, and policy makers. With much of the homicides being a result of the trafficking of illegal drugs, it has been suggested that the homicides in Mexico follow seasonal patterns tied to the drug trade, specifically to the cultivation of heroin. In this paper, conventional econometric time series methods are applied to test this hypothesis. Results demonstrate that not only do the drug-related homicides in Mexico display evidence of seasonality, but also that seasonality appears empirically related to the heroin trade. The paper makes the larger argument that time series and other statistical methods are an untapped resource that can complement standard intelligence analysis to support defensible judgments based on the scientific method of inquiry. However, a fuller integration of statistics and traditional analysis would require sufficient support structures be developed to encourage and promote such analysis.

Estimating the impact of Mexican drug cartels and drug-related homicides on crime and perceptions of safety

We estimate the impact of drug cartels and drug-related homicides on crime and perceptions of security in Mexico. Since the location where drug cartels operate might be endogenous, we combine the difference-in-difference estimator with instrumental variables. Using surveys on crime victimization we find that people living in areas that experienced drug-related homicides are more likely to take extra security precautions. Yet, these areas are also more likely to experience certain crimes, particularly thefts and extortions. In contrast, these crimes and perceptions of insecurity do not change in areas where cartels operate without leading to drug-related homicides.

Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso

Drug-related homicides in Ciudad Juarez drastically increased beginning in 2008. Few studies have been carried out which assess the economic impacts of crime and homicides. Furthermore, the existing literature generally lacks regional assessment efforts. Because of geographical proximity and close economic ties, this paper reviews some of the potential impacts the Ciudad Juarez homicides may have on the El Paso regional economy. A time series data approach is employed to quantify links between organized crime homicides in Ciudad Juarez and economic conditions in El Paso as measured by the metropolitan business cycle index and total nonagricultural employment. Findings indicate that fluctuations in the number of Ciudad Juarez homicides impact both variables in statistically significant manners at multiple time lags.

Scarcity Without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets lacking third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We find that exogenous supply shocks originating in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia - Mexico's main cocaine supplier - create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico. In accordance with our model, the effect of cocaine scarcity on violence is larger near U.S. entry points; in locations contested by several cartels; and where, due to high support for the PAN party, crackdowns on the cocaine trade have been more frequent. Our estimates suggest that, for the period 2006-2010, scarcity created by more efficient interdiction policies in Colombia may account for 21.2% and 46% of the increase in homicides and drug-related homicides in the north of the country, respectively. At least over the short run, under the so-called War on Drugs, scarcity created by Colombian supply reduction e forts has resulted in negative spillovers in the form of more violence in Mexico.

On the Distributed Costs of Drug-Related Homicides

On the Distributed Costs of Drug-Related Homicides

On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides

We are first paper to study the economic effects of drug-trafficking organization violence. We exploit the manyfold increase in homicides in 2008-2011 in Mexico resulting from its war on organized drug traffickers to estimate the effect of drug-related homicides on house prices. We use an unusually rich dataset that provides national coverage on house prices and homicides and exploit within-municipality variations. We find that the impact of violence on housing prices is borne entirely by the poor sectors of the population. An increase in homicides equivalent to one standard deviation leads to a 3% decrease in the price of low-income housing. In spite of this large burden on the poor, the willingness to pay in order to reverse the increase in drug-related crime is not high. We estimate it to be approximately 0.1% of Mexico’s GDP

On the Distributive Costs of Drug-Related Homicides

Reliable estimates of the effects of violence on economic outcomes are scarce. We exploit the manyfold increase in homicides in 2008-2011 in Mexico resulting from its war on organized drug traffickers to estimate the effect of drug-related homicides on house prices. We use an unusually rich dataset that provides national coverage on house prices and homicides and exploit within-municipality variations. We find that the impact of violence on housing prices is borne entirely by the poor sectors of the population. An increase in homicides equivalent to one standard deviation leads to a 3% decrease in the price of low-income housing. In spite of this large burden on the poor, the willingness to pay in order to reverse the increase in drug-related crime is not high. We estimate it to be approximately 0.1% of Mexico’s GDP.

Why did Mexico become so violent? A self-reinforcing violent equilibrium caused by competition and enforcement

This article explains why homicides related to drug-trafficking operations in Mexico have recently increased by exploring the mechanisms through which this type of violence tends to escalate. It is shown that drug-related violence can be understood as the result of two factors: (a) homicides caused by traffickers battling to take control of a competitive market, and (b) casualties and arrests generated by law enforcement operations against traffickers. Both sources of violence interact causing Mexico to be locked into a “self-reinforcing violent equilibrium” in which incremental increases in traffickers’ confrontations raise the incentives of the government to prosecute traffickers which promote further confrontations with traffickers when, as a result of the detention of drug lords, the remnants of the criminal organization fight each other in successive battles. This article presents quantitative evidence and case studies to assess the importance of the two mechanisms. It uses a unique dataset of recorded communications between drug traffickers and statistics on drug-related homicides.

Explaining the Changing Nature of Homicide Clearance in Canada

Canadian homicide clearance rates are higher than for any other type of crime, but clearance rates have been decreasing since the late 1960s and they are not uniform across the country. This article examines homicide clearance in Canada using data derived from the Canadian Homicide Survey to determine whether the evident temporal and geographical variations in clearance are explained by either victim characteristics or offense details. There are two competing theories regarding homicide clearance characteristics. On one hand, it is argued that the police use discretion when determining which cases deserving more attention. The alternate theory is that police apportion the same effort to all homicide cases, regardless of the victim’s status owing to the heinous nature of the crime; therefore, only case details impede the process of determining culpability. Using logistic regression analysis, this examination first focuses on the influence of time and geography on clearance probabilities and then compares the effect of victim characteristics and offense characteristics on clearance outcomes. Empirically nested models indicate that victim characteristics are not a robust predictor of clearance; offense characteristics are found to be more influential. However, both temporal and geographical factors remain important predictors of homicide clearance. The impacts of increasing gang- and drug-related homicides are discussed, as are implications for future research.

High Times on the Silk Road

In medieval times, traders carried jewels, spices, perfumes, and fabulous fabrics along the legendary Route through Central Asia. Today, the goods are just as valuable, but infinitely more dangerous. Weapons and equipment for American troops in Afghan istan travel from west to east, along the vital lifeline of the Northern Supply Route. In the other direction, an unadvertised, but no less deadly product travels along the same roads, generating billions of dollars in illicit profits. As much as 25 percent of Afghanistan's heroin production is exported through the former Soviet states of Central Asia, and the UN's drug experts express grave concerns. Antonio Maria Costa, head of the UN's Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), claims that the Silk Route, turned into a heroin route, is carving out a path of death and violence through one of the world's most strategic, yet volatile re gions. A report from his office asserts that there is a perfect storm spiraling into Cen tral Asia with drug trafficking funding ter rorist groups and insurgency, fostering in stability and conflict, and leaving a host of health problems behind. This should be a wake-up call to Central Asian governments. Yet, oddly, nobody seems to care very much. In theory, the United Nations is right to be worried. At first glance, drug trafficking seems like a major threat to the region, since it is so inextricably linked to violent crime and political instability in many other parts of the world. More people died in Mexican drug violence in 2009 than in Iraq. In Brazil, the government admits about 23,000 drug-related homicides each year? some ten times the number of civilians killed in the war in Afghanistan. And it's not just Latin America that suffers. On Afghanistan's border with Iran, there are regular clashes between Iranian counter narcotics units and drug smugglers. Hun dreds of border guards have been killed over the past decade in fights with heroin and opium traffickers. But Central Asia's drug trade looks rather different. A closer look reveals a

The role of alcohol and drugs in homicides in England and Wales

The annual number of homicide convictions in England and Wales is increasing. Previous studies have highlighted the aetiological role of alcohol and drugs in homicide. To examine rates of alcohol and drug misuse and dependence in people convicted of homicide; the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence; the social and clinical characteristics of alcohol- and drug-related homicides; and the social and clinical characteristics of patients with dual diagnosis who commit homicide. A national clinical survey based on a 3-year (1996-9) consecutive sample of people convicted of homicide in England and Wales. Information on rates of alcohol and drug misuse/dependence, the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence and social and clinical characteristics of perpetrators were collected from psychiatric reports prepared for the court in homicide convictions. Detailed clinical information was gathered from questionnaires completed by mental health teams for those in contact with mental health services. Of the 1594 homicide perpetrators, more than one-third (42%) occurred in people with a history of alcohol misuse or dependence and 40% in people with a history of drug misuse or dependence. Alcohol or drug misuse played a contributory role in two-fifths of homicides. Alcohol played a major role in 52 (6%) and a minor role in 364 (39%) homicides. Drugs played a major role in six (1%) and a minor role in 138 (14%) homicides. Forty-two homicides (17%) were committed by patients with severe mental illness and substance misuse. Alcohol- and drug-related homicides were generally associated with male perpetrators who had a history of violence, personality disorders, mental health service contact and with stranger victims. Substance misuse contributes to the majority of homicides in England and Wales. A public health approach to homicide would highlight alcohol and drugs before severe mental illness.

A study of drug abuse and other causes of homicide in New York

This study adapted a classification system for homicide and used it to examine the role of illicit drugs and alcohol in homicides. Records in the Office of the Brooklyn District Attorney were reviewed for 722 homicides that occurred in 1991–1993. Records included police reports, eyewitness reports, court documents, and medical examiner reports. The reliability of four independent raters using the classification was very high. There were 221 homicides (29 percent) that were drug-related. Victims in drug-related homicides were more likely than other types of homicides to be male and twenty-five to thirty-four years of age, but there was no difference by race. Of the drug-related homicides, 38 percent was due to the pharmacological effect of a drug, usually cocaine, or alcohol and the rest was due to the business of drug dealing. The role of drug pharmacology was less in this study than in past studies that interviewed prisoners and more than in past studies that used police classification of homicides. This classification system using multiple sources of data in a District Attorney's office provided a clear, unbiased picture of the role of illicit drugs and alcohol in homicide.

The Relationship Between Substance Use, Drug Selling, and Lethal Violence in 25 Juvenile Murderers

The goal of the present study was to determine the relationship between substance use, drug selling, and lethal violence in adolescent male homicide offenders and their victims. The study employed a retrospective review of criminal justice databases and medical examiner records for murders committed by 25 adolescent males incarcerated in the Commonwealth of Virginia juvenile correctional centers from February 1992 to July 1996. The perpetrator sample was 84% African American and 16% white. The average age at the time of the offense was 15.0 years (range = 13.0 to 17.7 years). The victims were 84% male, 60% African American and 32% white. The median victim age was 28.0 years (mean = 34.8, range = 17 months to 75 years). The results indicated that 52% of the murders were committed by juveniles with identified involvement in drug selling, and 28% of the murders were drug-related. Toxicology results indicated recent drug or alcohol use in 27% of the victims; while 74% of the perpetrators reported substance use, 35% indicating daily use. Using discriminant analysis, it was possible to accurately classify 86% of the drug-related murders with the variables of recent victim drug use and perpetrator substance use history. The results indicated that adolescent males involved in the sale and distribution of illegal drugs comprised a significant percentage of those incarcerated for murder. Recent victim drug use and perpetrator substance use may be important variables in identifying drug-related juvenile homicides. These results underscore the link between substance use, drug selling, and lethal violence.

Creating Safe and Caring School Communities: Comer School Development Program Schools

Norris M. Haynes, Yale Child Study Center, Yale University* This article asserts that schoolwide interventions have the greatest potential for buffering students from violence outside of schools and for preventing violence within schools. It examines critical aspects of one such intervention, the Comer School Development Program (SDP), and explores the ways in which this program directly and indirectly impacts both the level of violence in the school and children's, parents', teachers', and school administrators' responses to it. By embracing children within a web of prosocial relationships and activities, the SDP is shown as creating a safe haven that supports their healthy development, fosters optimal learning, and discourages interpersonal violence. INTRODUCTION The devastating effects of violence on children's development and psychosocial adjustment are widely evident in the increasing number of children being treated for violence-related trauma or themselves being accused of perpetrating acts of violence on others (BoneyMcCoy & Finkelhor, 1995; Garbarino, Dubrow, Kostelny, & Pardo, 1992). Virtually constant exposure to real violence in their homes and communities and simulated violence in the media have rendered many of our nation's youth violence-impacted and violence-prone. Gun-toting individuals, drive-by shootings, and drug-related homicides previously confined to lurid dramatizations in the media are now everyday occurrences and pervasive influences on many children's development (Children's Defense Fund, 1994). Indeed, Kotlowitz's (1991) ruminations on the pervasive violence he found in the lives of two small boys growing up in an impoverished urban neighborhood prompted him to assert that such children are being robbed of their childhood. He and others have maintained that the increase in violence may be related to the failure of our nation's social institutions, including its families and schools, to adequately address the psycho-emotional and educational needs of children in holistic and collaborative ways (Bey & Turner, 1996). Forced to grow up at an unnaturally accelerated rate in order to physically and psychologically fend off assaults on their inner and outer selves, these young people cannot succeed on their own. Nor can we as a nation succeed in protecting them and restoring balance and integrity to their childhood unless we form communities of support around them to buffer them against the scourge of community and domestic violence. Insufficient attention has been paid by educational researchers to the quality of the human interactions that occur between children and adults at school. These interactions contribute substantially to the overall social climate of the school, which encompasses the attitudes, values, and behavior of students, school personnel, parents, and community members toward each other and toward the activities and programs occurring at the school. A healthy school climate supports children's healthy development and facilitates their acquisition of the effective social and intellectual skills they need to survive and thrive. An unhealthy one leads to conflict between children, parents, and school personnel and makes children's social and intellectual development difficult, if at all possible. In 1993, researchers at the Comer School Development Program (SDP) of the Yale Child Study Center in New Haven, Connecticut, conducted a national survey of parent, staff, and student perceptions of school climate (Haynes, Emmons, & Comer, 1994). The sample was randomly selected from a national cross-section of 150 elementary, middle, and high schools. Of the 11,963 middle school students who completed this survey, 22% indicated that some of their schoolmates carry guns or knives to school. Forty-three percent responded that the children at their school fight a lot, and 42% noted that many children at their schools are suspended due to violent behavior. …