Dropout Decisions Research Articles

A multivariate analysis of the early dropout using classical machine learning and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations

Student dropout rates can have a significant negative impact on both the development of educational institutions and the personal growth of students. Consequently, many institutions are focused on identifying key factors that contribute to dropout and implementing strategies to mitigate them. This study aims to predict student dropout rates using classical machine learning algorithms while analyzing the key factors influencing these outcomes in higher education. The dataset includes demographic, socioeconomic, and academic information from various sources. Additionally, the study leverages the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) model to provide insights into the predictions, offering a clearer understanding of the factors driving dropout decisions. This knowledge is crucial for identifying influential factors and, more importantly, enhancing early intervention strategies and policies in educational settings, ultimately reducing dropout rates.

“When my teacher quits, I’ll quit too.” – A mixed methods study on trust and (dis-)continuation in adult basic education

ABSTRACT Democratic values and social cohesion face challenges globally, affecting education access and participation. Global education policies aim to reduce barriers, particularly in literacy and adult basic education (ABE). Low literacy levels correlate with decreased social trust and stigmatisation, hindering further education enrolment due to associated shame. Trust emerges as a pivotal need among learners, facilitating enrolment bridged by trusted individuals, and enhancing the emotional value of participation. This study investigates the role of interpersonal trust in course (dis)continuation in the field of literacy and ABE. It explores clusters of learners based on generalised and particularised trust, examining how trust influences course continuation. Survey data was collected from 79 ABE learners in Germany and an exploratory cluster analysis was conducted. In-depth interviews with 8 active learners were matched with the results of the cluster analysis and were further qualitatively analysed. The analysis revealed two distinct learner clusters determined by trust levels. Findings underline the relevance of trust in drop-out decisions, both intra-individually and interpersonally. This study seeks to contribute to the discourse on the role of trust in drop-out and retention, thus aligning with the goal of enhancing social participation through basic education.

Dropout intention: a valid predictor of actual dropout?

Evidence on the extent to which dropout intention can serve as a valid predictor of dropout decisions remains scarce. This study first presents the results of a systematic literature review of 14 studies examining the relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout in post-secondary education (vocational education and training [VET] or higher education). Second, we examine a longitudinal dataset of prospective chefs surveyed at the beginning (t1), the second half of the first year (t2), and the second year of the dual VET programme (t3). We examine the relationship between self-reported dropout intention and trainees’ actual dropout behaviour. Additionally, we analyse development profiles of trainees’ dropout intention using latent profile analysis. The review results provide strong support for a significant positive relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout (effect sizes vary between studies and contexts/types of dropout). In line, aspiring chefs’ dropout intention is significantly positively correlated with actual dropout (r = 0.201). Three development profiles were identified during VET: (1) stable, low dropout intention, (2) stable, medium dropout intention, and (3) increasing dropout intention. We conclude that dropout intention is positively related to actual dropout. As the extent to which dropout intention actually leads to dropout behaviour in VET also depends on external factors (e.g., labour market situation, alternative options), the predictive power of dropout intention may be limited. This is suggested by the weak correlation between dropout intention and actual dropout and the profile of trainees with increasing dropout intention who nevertheless persisted until year 2 of VET.

The Association between PTSD, Gratitude, Academic Adjustment, and Dropout Decisions in Veteran Students with Disabilities: Brief Report

The Association between PTSD, Gratitude, Academic Adjustment, and Dropout Decisions in Veteran Students with Disabilities: Brief Report

Determinants of community-based health insurance membership renewal decision among rural households in Kellem Wollega zone, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia: a community-based cross-sectional study.

Despite the fact that community-based health insurance (CBHI) is a promising program to achieve the goal of universal health coverage (UHC), it faces challenges that are not only due to low enrollment but also due to membership renewal decision that impact its sustainability. Hence, the study aimed to identify the determinants of CBHI membership renewal decision among rural households in Kellem Wollega zone, Ethiopia. The study was conducted in Kellem Wollega, Ethiopia, among rural households from March 30-April 30, 2022, using a community-based cross-sectional study design. An interviewer-administered structured questionnaire through face-to-face interviews was used. Using a systematic random sampling method, 551 households were selected making 540 (98%) response rates. The data was entered into EPI Data 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 25 software. Descriptive statistics, binary, and multiple logistic regressions were performed. Using multiple logistic regressions, a significant association between the CBHI membership renewal decision and independent variables was identified, declaring the statistical significance level using a 95% confidence interval (CI) at p < 0.05. The overall rate of CBHI membership renewal decision among households was estimated to be 365 (67.6%, 95% CI = 63.7-71.5%). The factors that significantly influenced the households' membership renewal decision were family size (AOR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.25-0.86), low literacy status (AOR = 0.28 95% CI = 0.12-0.64), lower than middle-level of wealth index (AOR = 9.80, 95% CI = 2.75-34.92), premium affordability (AOR = 4.34, 95% CI = 2.08-9.04), unavailability of services (AOR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.12-0.55), trusting in health facilities (AOR = 5.81, 95% CI = 2.82-11.94), favorable providers' attitude toward members (AOR = 8.23, 95% CI = 3.96-19.64), good quality of service (AOR = 4.47, 95% CI = 2.28-8.85) and health care seeking behavior (AOR =3.25, 95% CI = 1.32-7.98). The overall CBHI membership dropout decision rate among rural households was high, which could affect health service provision and utilization. Therefore, the insurance scheme and contracted health facilities should consider and work on family size and wealth status when membership premiums are calculated, the education level of households when creating awareness about the scheme, building trust in the contracted health facilities by providing all promised benefit packages of health services with good quality, and improving the attitude of health care providers towards the scheme members.

Sinimulan pero ‘di Tinapos: Experiences of School Dropouts and Their Parents

Several investigations have been undertaken to identify the issue that causes student dropout. Interestingly, a dearth of studies focusing on an in-depth case analysis of specific stories and explanations inside individual interviews is evident. This led the researchers to conduct this study. This study aimed to explore what contributes to the dropping of students from school. This study employed the case study design and criterion sampling was used in choosing the participants. Aide-mémoire was used as the main data-gathering tool. Seven (7) willing students who dropped out during the first and second semesters of the school year 2022-2023 at the ISPSC Santiago campus and seven (7) parents served as key informats of the study. A family member and friend for each of the main respondents also participated as part of the triangulation process of the study. Then, the gathered data from the interview transcripts were analysed by applying the cool and warm analyses. The study revelead that the financial restrictions were the prominent element leading to school dropout experiences as many students struggled to finance their educational expenditures, or they needed to support financially their families. Inadequate assistance from educational institutions, such as a lack of resources and an unsupportive school environment, also played a role in dropout decisions. Individual reasons such as academic difficulties, disinterest in studies, and low self-esteem influenced students' decisions to abandon their education. With these reasons, the phrase sinimulan pero ‘di tinapos (started but did not finish) was conceptualized which charaterized the dropping of students from their classes. Nonetheless, the study concludes that parental involvement and support are critical in attaining educational success while lack of family support and financial challenges hampered it.

Whether or not to enroll, and stay enrolled? A Tanzanian cross-sectional study on voluntary health insurance

Lower-middle income countries (LMICs) have invested significant effort into expanding insurance coverage as a means of improving access to health care. However, it has proven challenging to fulfill these ambitions. This study investigates to what extent variables associated with the enrollment decision (stay never-insured or enroll) differ from variables associated with the dropout decision (stay insured or drop out). A cross-sectional survey that included 722 households from rural districts in Tanzania was conducted and multinomial logistic regressions were performed to determine the associations between independent variables and membership status (never-insured, dropouts, or currently insured). Both the decision to enrollment and the decision to drop out were significantly associated with the presence of chronic disease and perceptions about the quality of services provided, insurance scheme management, and traditional healers. The effect of other variables, such as age, gender and educational level of the household head, household income, and perceptions about premium affordability and benefit-premium ratios, varied across the two groups. To improve voluntary health insurance coverage, policymakers must simultaneously increase the enrollment rate among the never-insured and reduce the dropout rate among the insured. Our conclusions suggest that policies to increase insurance scheme enrollment rates should differ for the two uninsured groups.

Ethnic Minorities’ Dropout Decisions in Higher Education

The objective of this paper is to examine theoretical views on minority dropout decisions in higher education. This integrative review demonstrates that the dropout issue is highly complex and is comprised of different definitions and characteristics. It is required that educators clearly define the term. The review’s findings also show that minority students’ decisions to drop out from higher education involve factors of three different dimensions: psychological, physical, and environmental factors. Institutional support is necessary to assist minority students in their educational attainment. The review concludes that future research will be key in further exploring the issue of minority dropout.

Relative importance of students' expectancy-value beliefs as predictors of academic success in gateway math courses.

Math-intensive fields in postsecondary education, such as physics and math, often struggle with high student dropout rates. Motivational declines after the transition to postsecondary education are a key factor underlying students' achievement difficulties and decisions to leave these fields. A better understanding of which motivational factors play a particularly central role in predicting achievement difficulties and dropout decisions is needed to inform potential interventions. Thus, drawing on Eccles' expectancy-value theory, we examined changes in the relative importance of students' expected success and different task values as unique or joint predictors of students' academic success and course dropout across three time points within a semester. Data were collected in gatekeeper math courses for physics and math majors (N = 811). Commonality analyses showed an increasing overlap in the predictive effects of students' expectancies and values on later academic outcomes, which indicates convergence in these motivational beliefs, as they likely influence each other over time. A significant shift in the relative importance of students' expectancies and values occurred after the transition to postsecondary education, highlighting a sensitive time point for interventions. Pre-existing achievement, socioeconomic, and gender differences lost some of their unique predictive power toward the midpoint of the semester.

The Dropout of First-Year STEM Students: Is It Worth Looking beyond Academic Achievement?

The expansion of Higher Education increased the diversity of students, with heterogenous characteristics, needs, and values. Institutions, intending to preserve the mission and the transformative potential of the tertiary level of education, are facing and implementing policies and practices that enhance success conditions, persistence, and avoid student dropout, in order to meet the goals for sustainable development of people and societies. The present study aims to analyze the impact of personal and academic variables on students’ academic difficulties in adaption to HE, academic achievement, and dropout among first-year STEM students. From a cohort of STEM first-year students at a Portuguese public university, the participants numbered 1376. Applying the structural equation modelling, the results highlight the effect of the variables age, gender, scholarship, and grade point average on access to higher education, difficulties in adapting to higher education, and dropout decision. Understanding STEM students who have already dropped out can contribute to better identification of institutional actions to prevent and reduce its occurrence, especially in first-year students.

The role of learning in school persistence and dropout: A longitudinal mixed methods study in four countries

Using longitudinal quantitative and qualitative data we examine the role that learning plays in school persistence and dropout in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. Regression analysis shows a strong, significant association, with one standard deviation higher test scores associated with 50% lower odds of dropping out between the ages of 8 and 12, and a similar association between ages 12 and 15. Qualitative analysis indicates a direct relationship between low learning and dropout, with children and parents choosing to discontinue school when they realize little is being learned. Qualitative findings also show that low learning interacts with and exacerbates proximate causes of dropout, including early marriage and leaving school to work, as families decide which options will best provide for children in the long run. These findings suggest that low learning may play a larger role in dropout decisions than has been previously recognized, and that improving learning may also improve schooling attainment and completion.

Progressive Taxation versus College Subsidies with College Dropout

AbstractThis paper examines what the optimal policy is against the rising skill premium in a heterogeneous agent macroeconomic model in which agents make endogenous enrollment and dropout decisions. Some college enrollees in the model endogenously drop out after learning ability during college. Using this model, I derive the optimal progressive labor income tax and optimal college subsidies separately and compare the social welfare. While the effect of college subsidies is smaller than the case without learning ability, the optimal college subsidies improve social welfare more than the optimal progressive labor income tax.

A Case Study on University Dropout: Perspectives from Education Faculty Students and Academicians

This case study investigated the reasons for students dropping out of a university and the experiences associated with the dropout process of individuals who dropped out of the faculty of education in Turkey. We collected data from 10 individuals who dropped out and 8 academic staff members who worked in the same faculty of a state university in the Aegean region in Turkey between 2008 and 2018 using the criterion sampling technique. We collected data using semi-structured interview forms and conducted content analysis. The results revealed that pre-admission factors (I), which are the factors of guidance, personality, system, family, career, and city play decisive roles in the admission process of individuals. These factors can shape their intrinsic and extrinsic motivation before the faculty admission process. After admission, the university processes factors (II) such as psychological condition, academic condition, social condition, organizational situation, appointment factors, military service, family situation, and financial situation are determinant factors on individuals’ intrinsic and extrinsic motivations in their university experience. After the dropout decision, individuals either drop out of the system or change department/university. Findings point out that the reasons for and process of the dropout are interdependent and divergent. Recommendations for future investigations and practices are presented based on our findings.

Countering Moral Hazard in Higher Education: The Role of Performance Incentives in Need-Based Grants*

Abstract Using a unique reform in the Spanish financial aid program, I estimate the impact of need-based grants on student achievement and dropout decisions under different intensities of academic requirements. Utilising comprehensive administrative data from a large university, I exploit sharp discontinuities in the grant eligibility formula to identify the effect of aid on student outcomes. I find that aid eligibility has no effect on student outcomes when the academic requirements are comparable with most existing national grant schemes worldwide. In contrast, I find that need-based grants have strong positive impacts on student performance and degree completion when they are combined with more demanding academic requirements.

STRATEGIES FOR RETENTION AND COMPLETION IN VOCATIONAL EDUCATION: FACULTY PERSPECTIVES

The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss the strategies for retention and completion in vocational education. We are reporting on one New Zealand polytechnic institution’s experience in improving the retention and completion rate for a one-year diploma in business programme. A review of relevant literature pertaining to retention and completion strategies in tertiary education in general and for vocational education in particular was performed to understand the factors dominant in dropout decisions of tertiary students and to explore retention and completion strategies from a wider body of knowledge. The review focused on strategies influencing institutional and interactive factors to identify this issue. Further, a qualitative study was conducted; data was collected by conducting one-on-one interviews using open-ended questions to survey the faculty teaching on the diploma programme at a New Zealand polytechnic. The findings revealed faculty employed a range of practices for improving interaction with students, identifying at-risk students, and providing them with support, creating a collaborative learning environment, and employing a constructive feedback system to improve retention and completion in the programme. This study is expected to assist educators and tertiary institutions in prioritising retention and completion issues and adopting suitable strategies to address these issues.

Persistence and Dropout in Higher Online Education: Review and Categorization of Factors.

Online learning is becoming more popular with the maturity of social and educational technologies. In the COVID-19 era, it has become one of the most utilized ways to continue academic pursuits. Despite the ease and benefits offered by online classes, their completion rates are surprisingly low. Although several past studies focused on online dropout rates, institutions and course providers are still searching for a solution to this alarming problem. It is mainly because the previous studies have used divergent frameworks and approaches. Based on empirical research since 2001, this study presents a comprehensive review of factors by synthesizing them into a logically cohesive and integrative framework. Using different combinations of terms related to persistence and dropout, the authors explored various databases to form a pool of past research on the subject. This collection was also enhanced using the snowball approach. The authors only selected empirical, peer-reviewed, and contextually relevant studies, shortlisting them by reading through the abstracts. The Constant Comparative Method (CCM) seems ideal for this research. The authors employed axial coding to explore the relationships among factors, and selective coding helped identify the core categories. The categorical arrangement of factors will give researchers valuable insights into the combined effects of factors that impact persistence and dropout decisions. It will also direct future research to critically examine the relationships among factors and suggest improvements by validating them empirically. We anticipate that this research will enable future researchers to apply the results in different scenarios and contexts related to online learning.

Dropout from Higher Education in Turkey: A Qualitative Study

The purpose of this study is to determine the factors which affect the decision to drop out at undergraduate level from the point of view of the individuals who dropped out from higher education. In this study, phenomenological research design, which is one of the qualitative research approaches, was used. The study group consisted of nineteen participants with dropout experience in higher education. The study data were collected using semi-structured interviews, and analyzed using the content analysis method. The findings of the study show that pre-college experiences affecting dropout, based on the type of graduated high school, the reasons for leaving university education, the level of vocational maturity, the lack of autonomy in department choice, parental education level and university entrance examination scores may have affected the department choice of the participants. The problems experienced during the college study leading to dropout are related to social adjustment, academic factors, organizational factors and financial difficulties. According to the participants’ statements, the final dropout decision was made as a result of academic failure, evaluation of appropriateness of vocational choice, marriage, or employment opportunities after graduation.

Why do nursing students leave bachelor program? Findings from a qualitative descriptive study

BackgroundOver the past few years, the phenomenon of “nursing student attrition” has been unevenly studied. Investigators often focused on independent predictors as age, family obligations, final grade of high school, demanding physical and mental workload and others. Specifically, just a few studies applied qualitative methods to better comprehend the very needs of first year students enrolled in a bachelor’s degree in nursing sciences (BSN), to sustain their learning process and define effective strategies to reduce student drop-out.MethodsWe conducted a qualitative descriptive study. Thirty-one nursing students at Verona University were interviewed using a semi-structured guide. Data analysis was performed according to a descriptive approach by Sandelowski & Barroso (2000).ResultsA total number of 31 students were interviewed. The most recurrent themes regarding the reasons behind BSN drop-out were: understanding that they were not suited to be nurses, perception of missing/lack of psychological, physical and practical resources needed to successfully cope with both nursing school and the nursing profession, inconsistencies between the image of the profession and the reality of the job, feelings of disappointment for the experiences of internship, perceived lack of support from the clinical teacher while going through difficult experiences.ConclusionsWe can consider a part of these drop-out decisions normal, even physiological when students come to realise that they are not suited for the nursing profession. However, it’s important to guide nursing students with adequate counselling in order to give them the essential tools to cope with the training and the future as health professionals.

Continued adherence to community-based health insurance scheme in two districts of northeast Ethiopia: application of accelerated failure time shared frailty models

BackgroundThe sustainability of a voluntary community-based health insurance scheme depends to a greater extent on its ability to retain members. In low- and middle-income countries, high rate of member dropout has been a great concern for such schemes. Although several studies have investigated the factors influencing dropout decisions, none of these looked into how long and why members adhere to the scheme. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors affecting time to drop out while accounting for the influence of cluster-level variables.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 1232 rural households who have ever been enrolled in two community-based health insurance schemes. Data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire via a mobile data collection platform. The Kaplan–Meier estimates were used to compare the time to drop out among subgroups. To identify predictors of time to drop out, a multivariable analysis was done using the accelerated failure time shared frailty models. The degree of association was assessed using the acceleration factor (δ) and statistical significance was determined at 95% confidence interval.ResultsResults of the multivariable analysis revealed that marital status of the respondents (δ = 1.610; 95% CI: 1.216, 2.130), household size (δ = 1.168; 95% CI: 1.013, 1.346), presence of chronic illness (δ = 1.424; 95% CI: 1.165, 1.740), hospitalization history (δ = 1.306; 95% CI: 1.118, 1.527), higher perceived quality of care (δ = 1.322; 95% CI: 1.100, 1.587), perceived risk protection (δ = 1.218; 95% CI: 1.027, 1.444), and higher trust in the scheme (δ = 1.731; 95% CI: 1.428, 2.098) were significant predictors of time to drop out. Contrary to the literature, wealth status did not show a significant correlation with the time to drop out.ConclusionsThe fact that larger households and those with chronic illness remained longer in the scheme is suggestive of adverse selection. It is needed to reconsider the premium level in line with household size to attract small size households. Resolving problems related to the quality of health care can be a cross-cutting area of ​​intervention to retain members by building trust in the scheme and enhancing the risk protection ability of the schemes.

Transition from School to Work \u2013 Explaining Persistence Intention in Vocational Education and Training in Switzerland

Vocational education and training (VET) programs are typically regarded as the means to enable successful school-to-work transitions. However, high rates of premature contract terminations in VET programs suggest that adolescents face difficulties during this transition. This paper aims to examine the determinants of persistence intention, claiming that persistence intention is a crucial indicator of imminent dropout decisions. The analysis is based on a longitudinal data set of trainees in dual VET programs in Switzerland (n = 1,163) containing two measurement points (before and after the transition from school to VET). Drawing on Social Cognitive Career Theory (Lent & Brown, 2008, 2013), we are interested in the effects of work adjustment indicators, selected characteristics of the vocational choice process, and environmental support before and after the transition on trainees’ persistence intention. We use structural equation modeling to analyze both direct and indirect effects of different predictor variables on persistence intention. The results show significantly positive effects of both occupational self-efficacy and perceived person-vocation fit during the training program on trainees’ persistence intention. Moreover, there are only indirect effects of anticipated person-vocation fit and occupational self-efficacy at the end of compulsory education. Trainees’ relationship with the trainer also has an indirect effect on persistence intention. Social integration in the workplace is both directly and indirectly linked to persistence intention. Overall, the model explains 48% of the variance in persistence intention. Implications for VET programs and future research are discussed.