Drop In Stock Prices Research Articles

The Impact of Direct Purchase Policy on Stock Price Trend: Evidence from China in First Quarter of 2024

In recent years, with the global economic recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the turbulence in the international situation, countries have been actively rescuing financial markets. Particularly in China, the national team has invested hundreds of billions of yuan to directly purchase stocks from the stock market to save the market. Research indicates that the direct purchase of stocks indeed leads to an increase in the price of these stocks. Conversely, stocks that are sold within this plan have also clearly experienced a decline. However, it is important to note that this impact is most pronounced in the initial thirty trading days. Over time, the influence gradually diminishes, especially by the fourth thirty-trading-day period, there is a significant drop in stock prices.

Why Did Bank Stocks Crash during COVID-19?

Abstract A two-sided “credit-line channel”—relating to drawdowns and repayments—explains the severe drop and partial subsequent recovery in bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Banks with greater exposure to undrawn credit lines saw larger stock price declines but performed better outside of crises periods. Despite deposit inflows, high drawdowns led to reduced bank lending, suggestive of capital encumbrance upon drawdowns. Repayments of credit lines unencumbered capital which explains the stock price recovery starting Q2 2020. Bank provision of credit lines resembles writing put options on aggregate risk, and we propose how to incorporate this feature into bank stress tests. (JEL G01, G21)

Exploration of the *ST Mall Acquisition Event Based on the Theory of Corporate Life Cycle

*ST Mall, a publicly listed company that has gone through multiple development stages, is currently facing severe financial difficulties and industry challenges. Through financial data analysis, it was found that *ST Mall is dealing with issues such as high debts, tight cash flow, and declining profitability. Especially in the recession stage, the financial condition of *ST Mall continues to deteriorate, leading to a significant drop in stock prices. In addition, they are also facing challenges like high market saturation and severe customer loss. The financial events of 2021 have had a profound impact on the company, bringing new financial risks and challenges. To address the current difficulties, the mall urgently needs to take measures to reduce financial risks, improve operational efficiency, closely monitor industry trends, and ensure that the company can effectively deal with future challenges.

COVID-19-related announcements in a continuous disclosure environment: drivers and stock market implications

PurposeThe purpose of this research note is to investigate the drivers and market reaction to firms’ decision to release general COVID-19-related announcements and to withdraw earnings forecasts and dividends during the COVID-19 pandemic in the continuous disclosure environment of Australia.Design/methodology/approachThe authors first tracked the market reaction of all firms in the Australian Securities Exchange All Ordinaries, Top 300, Top 200 and Top 100 indices during the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic between 1 January and 21 September 2020. The authors then focus the investigation on the incidence of firms deciding to withdraw earnings forecasts and dividends and how the market responded to these incidences during that period.FindingsThe market reacted negatively during the March/April 2020 period but then bounced back to the pre-March 2020 level. The market reaction is mainly driven by three industries, including consumer discretionary, health care and utilities. Firms in industry sectors such as consumer discretionary, materials, health care and information technology contribute to the highest percentage of COVID-19 announcements. It is interesting to document that firms issuing COVID-19 announcements and withdrawing earnings forecasts and dividends tend to be larger firms with stronger financial performance and higher financial leverage. Regarding the stock market reaction, while the market generally reacted positively to COVID-19-related announcements, the decision to withdraw earnings forecasts and dividends is significantly regarded as bad news.Originality/valueThe COVID-19 pandemic has provided a unique natural event to examine firms’ disclosure behaviour in the continuous disclosure environment of Australia during this period of extreme uncertainty. The incidences of earnings forecasts and dividend withdrawals are mainly driven by larger, better performing and higher leverage firms in the consumer discretionary, health care, materials and information technology industry sectors. The market generally reacted favourably to COVID-19-related announcements, despite a significant stock price drop during the March/April 2020 period. The findings provide important regulatory and practical implications.

The Impact of Information Uncertainty on Stock Performance During the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

We investigate the impact of information uncertainty on stock performance during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We document that firms with more information uncertainty suffered a greater stock price drop during the period of market-wide price declines. In contrast, the negative effect of information uncertainty on stock returns was absent during the market-reversal or pseudo-drop period. In addition, during the reversal period, firms with forecast dispersion in the top tercile (or quartile) had more positive returns than those with lower forecast dispersion. We contribute to the literature by testing the relationship between information uncertainty and firm returns in the special setting of the most recent financial crisis and providing initial evidence that firm-specific information uncertainty amplified stock price fluctuations during the financial crisis.

Undisclosed material inflation risk

We identify many major U.S. corporations that are highly exposed to inflation risk. Yet, although the SEC legally requires disclosing possible risk factors, more than 61% of the inflation-exposed corporations do not disclose inflation risk. However, after being sued in a securities class action lawsuit, while all firms increase the length of their reported risk factor texts, only inflation-exposed firms are more likely to begin disclosing inflation risk. Simulations using calibrated parameters from our models reveal that 2%–6% inflation shocks over the subsequent three years result in market cap damages of $0.9 to $2.8 trillion for shareholders of inflation-exposed firms that never disclosed this risk. The inadequate inflation risk disclosure holds after allowing risk to be time varying, controlling for firm/industry characteristics, and/or exploiting a quasi-natural experiment that identifies causal effects and controls for possible unobservable factors. The evidence is consistent with corporate managers paying inadequate attention to inflation risk. Our framework enables identification and evaluation of stock price drop damages, especially for firms with inadequate risk disclosures, possibly improving disclosure practices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy transmission.

Can innovation help existing firms resist shock from new stock issuance? Evidence from the launch of China’s STAR market

ABSTRACT The launch of China’s STAR market (officially known as the Science and Technology Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange) caused a significant drop in stock prices in existing stock markets in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. This study examines whether innovative firms showed more resilience to the shock caused by the launch of the STAR market. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms, we find that firms with higher innovation had significantly higher stock returns during the shock period. This suggests that the STAR market launch induced investors to pay more attention to firm innovation and prompted them to reward innovations to a greater extent. This finding remains intact after an array of robustness tests. Moreover, this effect was more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with higher product market competition. Additional analyses suggest that investors prefer firms with higher quality of innovation. Overall, this study finds that innovation plays an important role in capital markets; that is, innovation helps firms resist shock from the issuance of new shares.

Tax-Favored Stock Donations by Corporate Insiders and Consequences for Equity Markets

Although corporate insiders face substantial restrictions on stock sales, securing tax deductions through charitable donations of stock is viewed as an attractive alternative. Recent press coverage and growing empirical evidence confirm that insider donations occur frequently and often precede stock price drops. Securities regulators have also taken note, with a recent push for new rules to require rapid disclosure as with insider trades. This paper develops a model of informed stock trading when disposal of stock by insiders takes the form of tax-favored charitable donations rather than direct trading. We demonstrate that charitable gifts by insiders can reflect nonpublic information about firm value and that they do so in a manner that promotes greater market efficiency. Relative to informed trading, insider donations yield greater market liquidity, more efficient equity prices, and superior investor protection. The results suggest that although insider donations deserve scrutiny, they are not equivalent to insider trades. The results also provide a general framework to examine implications of insider donations for tax policy governing philanthropic behavior. This paper was accepted by Ranjani Krishnan, accounting. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4514 .

증권관련집단소송 사건 중 집단소송허가절차에 관한 한국과 미국 법리 비교연구

The U. S. Supreme Court has decided four judgments in the past 10 years on the issues of the securities class action certification. Securities class action cases under Section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 are actively filed in the United States. Under Basic Inc. v. Levinson, the plaintiffs are no longer required to prove individual reliance. This rule allowed the U.S. investor class to be more easily certified in a Rule 10b-5 securities class action.
 In Korea, the Securities-related Class Action Act was enacted.
 Although securities-related class actions were not actively filed, there were some cases where the Supreme Court of Korea interpreted the rule on class action certification. Under the rule interpreted by the Supreme Court of Korea, the requirements to be certified as a class are different from that of the United States.
 In the United States, plaintiffs in a securities fraud class action frequently submit event studies at the class certification stage. However, Korean plaintiffs are not required to submit an event study at the class certification stage in a typical stock price drop class action.
 This is because, as the article discusses, the substantive securities law and the class certification rule differs from that of the United States.

Blood in the water: The value of antitakeover provisions during market shocks

During market-wide shocks that cause large drops in stock prices, firms with more state-endorsed antitakeover provisions (ATPs) experience smaller declines in value. Two channels appear to drive this finding. First, by giving boards more bargaining power to fight opportunistic bids, firms with more ATPs extract higher takeover premiums during market shocks. Second, having more ATPs attenuates the effect of market shocks on firm value by protecting relationship-specific investments with stakeholders from disruptive takeovers. Our results suggest that ATPs benefit shareholders during market shocks when firm values are abnormally low and represent one advantage of incorporating in states with more ATPs.

Climate Finance: Mapping Air Pollution and Finance Market in Time Series

Climate finance is growing popular in addressing challenges of climate change because it controls the funding and resources to emission entities and promotes green manufacturing. In this study, we determined that PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 are the target pollutant in the atmosphere and we use a deep neural network to enhance the regression analysis in order to investigate the relationship between air pollution and stock prices of the targeted manufacturer. We also conduct time series analysis based on air pollution and heavy industry manufacturing in China, as the country is facing serious air pollution problems. Our study uses Convolutional-Long Short Term Memory in 2 Dimension (ConvLSTM2D) to extract the features from air pollution and enhance the time series regression in the financial market. The main contribution in our paper is discovering a feature term that impacts the stock price in the financial market, particularly for the companies that are highly impacted by the local environment. We offer a higher accurate model than the traditional time series in the stock price prediction by considering the environmental factor. The experimental results suggest that there is a negative linear relationship between air pollution and the stock market, which demonstrates that air pollution has a negative effect on the financial market. It promotes the manufacturer’s improving their emission recycling and encourages them to invest in green manufacture—otherwise, the drop in stock price will impact the company funding process.

Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in exposure to TPU arising from Congressional votes to revoke China’s preferential tariff treatment between 1990 and 2001. A long-short portfolio designed to isolate exposure to TPU earns a risk-adjusted return of 3.6–6.2% per year. This effect is larger in sectors less protected from globalization, and more reliant on inputs from China. Industries more exposed to trade policy uncertainty also had a larger drop in stock prices when the uncertainty began, and more volatile returns around key policy dates. Our results are not explained by the effects of policy uncertainty on expected cash-flows, investors’ forecast errors, and import competition from China.

IMPACT OF COVID 19 ON THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET

The COVID19 pandemic which came unprecedentedly has brought forward a lot of confusion and unrest in the world. There are a lot of changes with regard to the global landscape in multiple ways. SARS-CoV-2 is the primary virus, which is the root contributor to the COVID19 outbreak, which started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It did not take much time to spread across the world. This pandemic has resulted in a universal health crisis, along with a major decline in the global economy. One of the major reasons for the fluctuation in the stock price is supply and demand. When the number of people who want to sell their stocks outnumbers those who want to purchase it, the stock price drops. Due to the result in the gap, the financial markets will suffer in the short duration, but in the long run, markets will correct themselves and would increase again. There is a sharp decline in the stock price because of the pandemic. The current scenario has resulted in a world health crisis which has contributed to global and economic crises. Almost all financial markets across the world have been affected by the recent health crisis, with stock and bond values falling gradually and severely. In the United States, the Dow Jones and S& P 500 indices have fallen by more than 20%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the New York Dow Jones Stock Exchange both indicate that they had a significant impact on China’s and the United States’ financial markets. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of COVID19 on stock markets. The rapid spread of the virus has left a major impact on the global financial markets. There is a link between the pandemic and the stock market, and this has been studied in this paper. Along with it, an attempt is taken to compare stock price returns in pre-COVID19 and post-COVID19 scenarios. The stock market in India faced uncertainty during the pandemic, according to the findings.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic and Stock Price Crashes: A Cross-National Correlational Approach

ABSTRACT The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a serious threat to public health and the economy. Importantly, there was a stock price crash on Monday, March 9, 2020, followed by a similar crash one week later. Leading global indices substantially dropped. Based on previous research indicating that the news media may elicit effects on stock prices, we hypothesized that the amount of news coverage about COVID-19 within a given country would predict the size of the stock price drop in that country. Using data for N = 58 nations from five continents, we observed average stock price drops of 6.57% (week 1) and 6.43% (week 2). Using a cross-national correlational approach, we found a positive relationship between the amount of news coverage about COVID-19 and the extent of the stock price drop. Actual severity within a given country (indicated by the number of confirmed cases and deaths, based on data provided by the World Health Organization) and public attention (indicated by COVID-19-related Internet search engine volume) did not predict the extent of the stock price drop in multivariate analyses. Correlational evidence is consistent with the idea that intensive media reporting on a threatening pandemic with uncertain negative consequences on health, social life, and the economy may provoke substantial reactions in the market, with as yet unknown indirect effects on public health. However, the causal order of media attention and stock price drops should be assessed with caution.

Political connections of Russian corporations: Blessing or curse?

This paper provides comprehensive empirical evidence on political connections of Russian corporations based on a sample of companies for the period 2011–2015 (divided into subsamples before and after the events in Ukraine). Based on a unique database, the study (1) evaluates how common political connections are for Russian corporate environment, and (2) investigates the impact of political connections on firm value through an event study. The research shows that 27% of Russian corporations from the sample had the top officials of Russia as directors, and 43% of corporations were found to be politically connected on the basis of either state ownership or directorship. Political connections are unevenly distributed among industries, and regulated industries are more heavily politicized. Aviation, oil & gas, and banking were the most politically connected sectors of the Russian economy. The event study showed that political connections have a value-destructive total effect which is statistically significant and robust. Generally, the stock market responds to announcements of political connections with a drop in share prices by 1.34% on average within 5 trading days. Different groups of stakeholders exert different impacts on firm value. The most negative influence on firm value is that of politically connected owners. The stock market reacts to acquisitions of shares by politically connected owners with a drop in stock prices by 1.82% within 5 trading days, and with a drop in stock prices by 4.3% when the politically connected owners were individuals. The negative value effect of political connections strengthened after the events in Ukraine.

How Valuable Is Financial Flexibility when Revenue Stops? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis

Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19 shock and benefit less from policy responses. We find that firms with high financial flexibility within an industry experience a stock price drop that is 26%, or 9.7 percentage points, lower than those with low financial flexibility. This differential return persists as stock prices rebound. Firms more exposed to the COVID-19 shock benefit more from cash holdings. No evidence suggests that recent payouts worsened the average firm’s drop in stock price. Our results cannot be explained by a leverage effect.

How Valuable is Financial Flexibility When Revenue Stops? Evidence from the Covid-19 Crisis

Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19 shock and benefit less from policy responses. We find that firms with high financial flexibility within an industry experience a stock price drop lower by 26% or 9.7 percentage points than those with low financial flexibility. This differential return persists as stock prices rebound. The firms more exposed to the COVID-19 shock benefit more from cash holdings. There is no evidence that recent payouts made the average firm’s stock price drop worse. Our results cannot be explained by a leverage effect.

CAN THE LEADING US ENERGY STOCK PRICES BE PREDICTED USING THE ICHIMOKU CLOUD?

The aim of this study is to investigate if Ichimoku Cloud can serve as a technical analysis indicator to improve stock price prediction for leading US energy companies. The methodology centers on the application of the Ichimoku Cloud as a trading system. The daily stock prices of the top ten constituents of the S&P Composite 1500 Energy Index - spanning the period from 12th April, 2012 to 31st July, 2019 - were sourced for experimentation. The performance of the Ichimoku Cloud is measured using both the Sharpe and Sortino ratios to adjust for total and downside risks. The analysis is split into pre and post oil crisis to account for the drop in energy stock prices during the July 2014 - December 2015. The model is also benchmarked against the naive buy-and-hold strategy. The capacity of the Ichimoku indicator to provide signals during strengthening trends is analyzed. Despite the drop in energy stock prices, number of trades continued to increase along with profit opportunities. The PSX stock ranked first, with the highest Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and Sharpe per number of trade. As expected, a number of buying signals occurred during strengthening bullish periods. Surprisingly, various sell signals also occurred during similar strengthening bullish trends. Most of the buy and sell signals under the Ichimoku indicator occurred outside of strengthening of bullish or bearish trends. The overall findings suggest that speculators can benefit from the use of the Ichimoku Cloud in analyzing energy stock price movements. In addition, it has the potential to reduce susceptibility to changes in energy prices. Last, the strength of the trend in place needs to be captured as it served as an additional layer of information which can improve the decision making process of the trader.

Is Everything Securities Fraud?

Securities litigation is a virtually inevitable fact of life for any public company. Often, investors sue because the firm’s managers engaged in fraud that directly harmed the shareholders – say, by doctoring the firm’s financials, or lying about known business prospects. However, shareholders also sue their companies when those companies engage in conduct that primarily harms a different set of constituents. When a drug on the market proves to have dangerous side effects, a faulty car battery bursts into flames, or an oil rig explodes, it’s difficult to say that the most direct victims are the companies’ shareholders. Yet shareholders commonly sue under the federal securities laws based on precisely this kind of conduct, on the ground that the managers should have better disclosed the underlying facts, and investors were harmed by the resulting drop in stock price because they did not. In recent years, these cases, dubbed “event-driven securities litigation,” have become more common, and have drawn increasing criticism on the grounds that they are opportunistic and generally lack merit. However, there has so far been no comprehensive examination of these lawsuits. This paper seeks to fill the gap by investigating the prevalence and attributes of these lawsuits. In a sample from 2010-2015, I find that roughly 16.5% of securities class actions arise from conduct where the most direct victims are not shareholders. However, I find that these cases have roughly a 20% lower likelihood of being dismissed, and settle for significantly higher amounts. These lawsuits are also more likely to be brought against large defendant firms, more likely to involve an institutional investor as a lead plaintiff, and much more likely to involve a non-SEC investigation or inquiry than cases where the primary victims are shareholders. Many of these attributes are used in the literature as proxies for merit. However, I argue that the merit of these cases is not clear-cut. Further, from a policy perspective, while these cases may have deterrence value, they may not be an optimal means to monitor corporate misconduct that harms outsiders.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in exposure to TPU arising from Congressional votes to revoke China's preferential tariff treatment between 1990 and 2001. A long-short portfolio designed to isolate exposure to TPU earns a risk-adjusted return of 3.6-6.2% per year. This effect is larger in sectors less protected from globalization, and more reliant on inputs from China. Industries more exposed to trade policy uncertainty also had a larger drop in stock prices when the uncertainty began, and more volatile returns around key policy dates. Our results are not explained by the effects of policy uncertainty on expected cash-flows, investors' forecast errors, and import competition from China.