Integrating Reproductive and Clinical Variables to Predict Postpartum Disability Outcomes in Multiple Sclerosis Using Machine Learning.

Freshwater lakes play a critical role in the global carbon cycle by storing and transforming organic matter (OM) from both terrestrial and aquatic sources. Small lakes in northern temperate regions, despite their limited surface area, disproportionately influence regional carbon budgets. Buried sediments integrate OM inputs over time and archive ecosystem responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the direction and magnitude of recent environmental changes on sediment carbon (C) dynamics remain poorly understood. A 23-centimeter core was collected from a small temperate lake in northeastern USA to evaluate sediment OM content and composition over timescales relevant to historical land-use change, damming, and recovery from acid deposition. Patterns in OM burial and source contributions were revealed via elemental and isotopic analyses of bulk OM and UV–Vis spectrophotometry of water-extractable organic matter (WEOM). The optical metrics expanded observations of likely OM sources beyond the information gained from bulk carbon metrics (total carbon, δ 13 C). The aromaticity of WEOM increased downcore, which is consistent with a shift from increased terrestrial inputs during early logging and damming activity (pre ∼1920) to more microbial-derived OM in recent surficial sediments. Future applications of WEOM optical properties as complements to traditional geochemical metrics can enhance interpretations of lake ecosystem responses recorded in lake sediments to environmental perturbations in temperate lakes. • Highlights (85 character max per point including spaces) • Water-extractable organic matter from lake sediments reveals environmental history • WEOM optical metrics vary more across sediment depth than bulk geochemical metrics • WEOM metrics show promise for broader geochemical applications in lake sediments

Downscaling GRACE(−FO) with mass-conserving XGBoost approach reveals high-resolution patterns and drivers of hydrometeorological-induced mass changes in High Mountain Asia

Did the evolution of multiple microchromosomes help save bird and other dinosaurs from extinction?

Identifying the heterogeneous characteristics of habitat quality (HQ) trajectories is a key prerequisite for refined ecological spatial management. We used kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) to correct the highly sensitive parameters, validated the correction results based on their consistency with the prior study findings, developed a framework for the evolution of HQ using Sen+MK and Pettitt’s tests, and utilized XGBoost and partial correlation analysis to identify the primary drivers of dynamic changes in HQ from both spatiotemporal perspectives. Our findings include the following: (1) between 2000 and 2023, the average annual rate of change in the HQ index was 0.0037 per year, indicating a continuous improvement in HQ. Compared with the period from 2011 to 2023 (0.0026 per year), the rate of improvement in HQ was faster during 2000–2011 (0.0047 per year). (2) Mutational improvement and progressive improvement were the main evolutionary trajectories, accounting for over 50.33% of the total. (3) Precipitation, land-use intensity (LUI), temperature, and elevation show a strong correlation with HQ distribution. The magnitude of HQ variation is related to HQ status, LUI, precipitation, and elevation. This study establishes a scientific foundation for developing differentiated regulatory strategies for YRB.

ABSTRACT Detecting how threatened species populations respond to accelerating environmental change requires monitoring frameworks that are sensitive and precise. Yet it remains poorly understood how the most common population status metrics (occupancy and abundance) respond to the same environmental processes when inferring population status. We compared occupancy and abundance monitoring for their ability to detect koala population responses to environmental drivers, using double‐observer drone surveys across 169 sites spanning 176,000 ha in mid‐northern New South Wales, Australia. We modelled occupancy‐abundance relationships, quantified both metrics' sensitivity to environmental covariates, and simulated koala population responses to three threat scenarios representing key drivers of global change. Occupancy and abundance exhibited a nonlinear relationship, with abundance declining substantially before occupancy changes became detectable. Abundance models identified 40% more significant environmental predictors than occupancy models, with effect sizes generally larger and with less uncertainty. However, under simulated threat scenarios, the relative sensitivity of each metric varied with threat type and intensity. Abundance monitoring provided superior early‐warning capability for gradual environmental degradation, while occupancy proved more sensitive to habitat loss‐related local extinction risk scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that no single population metric captures the full spectrum of koala responses to environmental change. For threatened species facing multiple, interacting threats under global change, we recommend multi‐metric monitoring frameworks that integrate both occupancy and abundance. This approach maximises detection of population responses across threat types while providing the comprehensive population assessment needed for evidence‐based conservation.

Rural communities in South Africa and the Global South are presently undergoing a radical transformation, but traditional notions of rural–urban divides and typologies are still ill-prepared to account for the complexity of these changes. This paper critically synthesizes the literature on rurality and rural–urban transition in order to (1) re-evaluate the conceptualization and measurement of rurality as a dynamic and multidimensional phenomenon; (2) identify the major drivers of rural–urban interaction and their implications for land use, governance, and socio-economic organization in urbanizing rural regions; and (3) propose a novel conceptual framework for the governance and planning of rural–urban interfaces. Using a narrative literature review approach, based on 93 key publications identified through structured searches of Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct, and Google Scholar, we critically review the literature in the fields of geography, planning, development studies, and environmental governance. The literature review contends that rurality is less a categorical concept than a relational one, and that urbanizing rural environments, especially in South Africa, increasingly embody what we term the “village peri-urban” condition: settlements that are geographically distant from metropolitan centers but functionally urban in terms of livelihood, infrastructure, and identity. In reaction to the persistent failure of governance and definitional gaps, we propose the rural–urban transition assemblage (RUTA) framework, which privileges the inter-relations between the major drivers of change, land use dynamics, governance fragmentation, and socio-spatial transformation. Rooted in the post-apartheid spatial legacy and dual tenure systems of South Africa, but generalizable to other comparable regions of the Global South, RUTA provides researchers, planners, and policymakers with a more nuanced conceptual cartography for navigating the uneven, contested, and irreversible nature of rural transformation.

This study examines the situational analysis of the Conner watershed of Apayao as a basis for a theory of change framework for planning, implementing, and evaluating the said watershed. The objectives aimed to characterize the Conner Watershed as to its physical, biological, and socio-economic profiles; determine the drivers of change of ecosystem services within the watershed; and propose a Theory of Change Framework for sustainable ecosystem services within the watershed. Data gathering was performed through analysis of secondary data and techniques of Participatory Rural Appraisal, such as Key Informant Interviews and field work. Data analysis was conducted through mapping for visualization and spatial interpretation of the watershed and its key characteristics. Findings from these participatory and spatial analyses provided the basis for identifying ecosystem drivers and informing the development of the Theory of Change framework. The diversity indices were determined using Shannon-Wiener diversity and Simpson’s dominance indices. The Conner watershed occupies an area of 73,665 hectares and covers 20 barangays of Conner. The floral diversity index was 2.61 (Shannon) and 0.8980 (Simpson), indicating moderate diversity. Issues and problems within the Conner Watershed impacted the forest areas of the watershed. The six Strategic Approaches (SAs) were developed through the Theory of Change: Improve Watershed Vegetation; Provide Alternative Livelihood; Improve Information, Education, and Communication; Enhance Capacity for Law Enforcement; Improve Social and Human Capital Development; and Enhance Research and Technology Development. Overall, the theory of change framework provides a structured basis for sustainable watershed management and informed policy development in Conner, Apayao.

Lake Erhai is an important plateau freshwater lake in China. It serves not only as a crucial drinking water source for the local region but also as the core area of the Cangshan Erhai National Nature Reserve. Consequently, Lake Erhai plays an extremely significant role in the local economy, society, and ecology. Since 2000, the water quality of Lake Erhai has continuously deteriorated, showing a eutrophic trend. To identify the primary driving forces behind these water quality changes, this study employed stepwise regression analysis. Climate conditions, socio-economic development within the basin, and implementation of environmental protection measures (IEPMs) were considered influencing factors for a comprehensive and systematic analysis of Lake Erhai’s water quality. The results indicate that rising air temperature may increase total phosphorus (TP) concentration, while rainfall may elevate both TP and total nitrogen (TN) levels. In contrast, higher wind speed may reduce chemical oxygen demand (CODMn), TP, and TN concentrations. Socio-economic development, meanwhile, may contribute to increased CODMn concentration. Based on these findings, this paper proposes recommendations focusing on formulating more effective non-point source pollution control measures and strengthening water quality monitoring in Lake Erhai during summer. By identifying the key natural and anthropogenic drivers of water quality changes in Lake Erhai, this study provides a scientific basis for the development of targeted pollution control strategies and directly contributes to the protection of clean water sources. Moreover, its revelation of the coupled impacts of climate change and socio-economic activities enhances understanding of plateau lake ecosystem resilience. This insight is critical for ensuring regional ecological security and serves as a model for advancing sustainable development goals in similar lake systems worldwide.

Abstract The emergence of an observed distinctive, meridionally confined surface cooling trend in the tropical Pacific cold tongue over recent decades contrasts sharply with the rapid warming simulated by most climate models, representing a key unresolved feature of climate change. Ocean-only simulations, even when forced with observed atmospheric conditions, likewise fail to reproduce the observed long-term absence of surface layer warming over the eastern Pacific cold tongue. Here we examine the long-term heat budget of the surface layer in the equatorial Pacific using atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, quantifying contributions from surface heat fluxes, ocean advection, and vertical diffusion inferred through Richardson number-based diffusivity estimates. In the Ocean ReAnalysis System 5 (ORAS5), the observed cold tongue cooling cannot be reproduced by the model’s intrinsic dynamics alone; instead, it depends on a surface heat flux adjustment imposed during data assimilation. A reduction in the warming effect associated with this adjustment in the eastern Pacific cold tongue over time emerges as the dominant contributor to the long-term cooling in the reanalysis data, a deus ex machina obscuring the actual physical drivers of change in the real ocean. We discuss potential origins of this deus ex machina cooling effect, including the influence of analysis increments, uncertainties in surface forcing and possible problems in the representation of oceanic processes, particularly subsurface turbulent heat flux induced by oceanic mixing processes. This work emphasizes that reanalysis-based assessments remain subject to inherent biases from the ocean models they are built upon. Resolving the discrepancy between observed and simulated Pacific trends will require confronting the structural limitations of models.

This paper will discuss the impacts of climate-driven salinity changes on the ecosystems and ecology of estuaries. The purpose of the paper is to analyze how the drivers of climate change, such as sea-level rise, changes in precipitation intensity, and extreme weather regimes, alter salinity regimes and eventually impact biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and socio-economic services in estuaries. The methodology will involve the qualitative analytical review, conceptual model ecosystem analysis, and interpretation of secondary data. It was assessed using synthesized information from past empirical studies, ecological data, and simulation data to evaluate biological and ecosystem processes across varying salinity levels. Simulations of the changing salinity of the ecosystem, driven by species interactions, revealed tolerance and trophic responses. The results indicate that the patterns of ecological stability and biodiversity are dramatically altered by rising salinity levels. There are some statistical predictions regarding the extent of the ecosystem's adaptation to changes in salinity. Gradual change of +5 PSU gives rise to nutrient availability of 80, reduced primary productivity of 9 g C/m2/day, and fish biomass of 300 kg/ha, which gives rise to the Human Livelihood Index of 70. With an extreme salinity (>10 PSU), the nutrient levels drop to 60 %, productivity goes down to 5 g C/m2/day and the fish biomass declines to 180 kg/ha, meaning that there is extreme degradation. The decrease of nutrients to 85% and fish biomass to 280 kg/ha is caused by a freshwater surge (-5 PSU). These dynamics favor the halotolerant species and not the biodiversity that is freshwater-dependent, and also upset the trophic processes. The conclusion emerges with the reality that the salinity variable, as a result of climate change, is a decisive factor that influences the estuarine resilience, ecosystem services, and fisheries productivity. Thus, to minimize the loss of biodiversity, predictive ecological modeling and adaptive management strategies have to be implemented in the built-in monitoring of the estuarine ecosystem to alleviate a decrease in ecosystem services as well as augmentation of the long-term stability of the estuarine ecosystems under the rising climatic pressures.

ABSTRACT Urbanization is a key driver of biodiversity change globally, reshaping species composition, ecosystem functions, and spatial diversity patterns. In this study, we investigated how urbanization influences the taxonomic and functional beta diversity of dung beetles in the eastern Amazon. Sampling was conducted along a preserved–rural–urban gradient using baited pitfall traps during the rainy season. We focused on three functional traits closely linked to dung beetle ecosystem functions and characterized landscape structure around each site using four land‐use and land‐cover types. Taxonomic and functional beta diversity, along with their replacement and gain/loss components, were calculated and related to urbanization effects. In total, we collected 4298 individuals from 66 species, with both richness and abundance declining from preserved to urban sites. A nested pattern in taxonomic diversity and evidence of nested functional diversity emerged along the gradient, suggesting that urbanization acts as a filtering process that progressively excludes species with unique trait combinations. Functional differences among environments were largely driven by nestedness, indicating that urban assemblages represent subsets of species from less disturbed habitats rather than functionally distinct assemblages. Additionally, the positive relationship between environmental dissimilarity and taxonomic beta diversity underscores the influence of landscape changes across the gradient on dung beetle assemblages. Our results demonstrate that urbanization reduces both taxonomic and functional beta diversity in Amazonian dung beetles, reinforcing the importance of conserving forest cover. Implementing sustainable policies, such as protecting urban forest remnants, can help preserve biodiversity and the ecosystem processes it supports within tropical cities.

In the face of planetary crisis and shifting ecological realities, new narrative forms are needed to reframe how we imagine, relate to, and co-inhabit more-than-human worlds. This paper introduces Ecological Speculation —a discursive and practice-based methodology that integrates ecological thinking with speculative design to explore futures from a planetary, more-than-human perspective. Taking inspiration from Alexander von Humboldt’s idea of Weltbeschreibung —the idea to represent the universe as a coherent whole—the paper asks what new narrative formats we need to describe the ecological futures we are entangled in. Building on deep ecology and relational ontology, it proposes a narrative turn: from recounting the world “around us” to imagining ourselves “within” it. This shift is articulated through the concept of the Anthropogenic Paradox —the contradictory position of humanity as both a driver of ecological change and a subject to its consequences. Grounded in the author’s own design practice, the article reflects on two projects, First Encounters (2021) and Turning the Ecological Gears (2022), as case studies for an emerging methodology that connects speculative design with anticipatory ecology. Central to this is the Cascade of Ecological Momentum , a narrative framework that transposes the logic of ecological interdependencies into a storytelling structure. The paper contributes to the discourse of Environmental Futures by advancing a methodology that positions Ecological Speculations as a tool of imagining futures beyond linear prediction. Positioned within posthuman and postnatural thought, it responds to the “crisis of imagination” and proposes speculation as a tool for navigating uncertainty and fostering coexistence in a world of shifting ecologies. In practice, it contributes by advancing immersive exhibitions as ways of engaging with climate complexity through embodied forms of knowledge production.

Ultrasound measurement of left ventricular function and structural indicators and gender-age differences in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Despite a number of issues in its collation, the dataset published by Oswalt et al. (1976) remains a key resource for operationalising cross-cultural technological variability and understanding the socioecological drivers of cultural change in small-scale societies. At the same time, however, it has not been comprehensively explored using up-to-date contextual metrics of subsistence, climate, and demographic structure in each population. In this paper, we present a novel evolutionary framework for understanding technological change in both modern and past populations, according to the complex fitness landscapes of cultural evolution present in different environments. We then use this framework as a lens to explore the drivers of toolkit composition and complexity among hunter-gatherer populations to assess how they relate to the adoption of particular behavioural strategies. We suggest a hierarchy of interlinked influences on the nature of technology: resource distributions exert the most proximate influence on their character, but demography (especially the size of seasonally-aggregated groups) and climate (especially seasonality and inter-annual predictability) are themselves critical in constraining technological possibilities. Finally, we argue that landscape knowledge is crucial in driving access over time to the highest-return technological strategies that are possible in any given environmental context.

Arid region ecosystems are among the most fragile ecological types worldwide. They depend heavily on limited water resources and are strongly influenced by intensive human activities, leading their ecosystem services to exhibit nonlinear and threshold responses to driving factors. Identifying the thresholds of ecosystem services under the combined influence of natural and socio-economic interactive drivers is of great significance for regional ecological risk warning and differentiated management. Taking the Tarim River Basin as a case study, this research establishes an integrated analytical framework that combines causal inference, interaction term construction, interpretable machine learning (XGBoost-SHAP), and piecewise linear regression. The framework is used to evaluate the variations in four types of ecosystem services in 2000, 2010, and 2023, to analyze the interactive effects of driving factors, and to identify their thresholds influencing ecosystem service functions. The results indicate that (1) different types of ecosystem service functions exhibited distinct trends from 2000 to 2023, with habitat quality and water yield showing declining tendencies, while soil conservation and Windbreak and sand fixation demonstrated gradual increases; (2) Causal Screening and interaction modeling revealed that the interaction between precipitation and population density (Pre × Pop) served as the key synergistic driver of changes in the four ecosystem service functions. Both the ecosystem services and the coupled natural–social driving processes exhibited pronounced nonlinear characteristics, with evident trend shifts occurring within specific threshold intervals. (3) The precise coupling thresholds of different ecosystem services under natural–social drivers were identified, intuitively revealing the coupling threshold characteristics of various ecosystem services; (4) The integration of causal inference with interpretable machine learning enhances the reliability of threshold identification, revealing the heterogeneous response mechanisms of different services and providing a quantitative basis for the zoning regulation and differentiated management of regional ecosystems. The findings offer a transferable methodological framework to support ecological governance in arid regions.

This study aimed to examine the distribution characteristics of phytoplankton communities in typical lakes in Inner Mongolia and their relationships with environmental factors, focusing on the effects of key factors such as nutrient levels, salinity, and water temperature on phytoplankton community structure. Using multivariate statistical analysis, the community composition, dominant taxa, and their interactions with environmental factors were analyzed across 79 sampling sites distributed among 20 lakes in these six regions. The results indicated significant differences in community structure along a nutrient gradient: Cyanobacteria predominated in eutrophic lakes, whereas Chlorophyta and Bacillariophyta were more common in saline lakes. Nutrient concentrations, particularly total nitrogen and phosphorus, were the main drivers of phytoplankton community changes, leading to frequent cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lakes. Salinity significantly regulated phytoplankton diversity, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Lake eutrophication and phytoplankton proliferation not only altered the community structure but also affected ecosystem stability and function. Certain integrated management strategies, including pollution control, water allocation, and ecological restoration, can effectively mitigate eutrophication-related ecological issues. This study provides essential scientific insights into lake ecological management.

Background Esophageal cancer is a major health burden, with smoking and alcohol as preventable risk factors. Comprehensive assessments of long-term trends, disparities, and future projections remain insufficient. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, this observational study evaluated the burden of esophageal cancer attributable to smoking and alcohol-attributable esophageal cancer burden across 204 countries (1990–2021). Metrics included disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change, decomposition analysis quantified drivers of burden changes, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected burden to 2040. Results From 1990 to 2021, global deaths and DALYs increased, while ASMR and ASDR declined. Burden was uneven ; males had higher burden than females and peak burden occurring in the 65–79 age group. Geographically, ASRs declined notably in Central Asia and Latin America but rose sharply in West Africa. Middle SDI regions had the highest absolute burden; low-middle SDI regions showed increasing alcohol-attributable ASRs. Population growth and aging were primary drivers of absolute burden increases. Projections indicate continued declines in age-standardized rates, but male burden will remain higher. Conclusions Despite declining age-standardized risks, smoking and alcohol remain major drivers of the global burden of esophageal cancer. Population growth and aging will further increase absolute case numbers. Projections to 2040 show continued declines in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates, yet male burden will remain substantially higher. Prevention should prioritize tobacco/alcohol control and targeted strategies for high-burden regions, males, and the elderly.

Abstract Kenya’s potato sector has undergone notable changes over the past two decades, driven by declining yields, rising consumer demand, changing market dynamics, and efforts directed toward more inclusive and commercialized seed systems. However, the potato sector remains dominated by smallholder producers. This study analyzes these developments, with emphasis on the introduction of improved varieties, seed potato production, ware potato production, and commercialization as key components. Drawing on insights across the value chain, the study identifies the main drivers of change and the promises for strategic pathways for potato sector development. Up to 2010, only 15 potato varieties were officially registered in Kenya, most of which were introduced with foreign support and primarily selected for yield and disease resistance. By 2024, the number of registered varieties had increased to 77, accompanied by the emergence of over 30 private seed companies engaged in seed potato multiplication and commercialization. Many of these companies adopted early generation seed technologies, such as the production of rooted apical cuttings or the production of minitubers through aeroponics, marking a shift toward commercial, private sector driven, seed systems. The study also highlights persistent structural weaknesses in market access, particularly for smallholder farmers who remain reliant on rural intermediaries to connect with urban markets. The growing interests in the potential of a processing potato value chain are increasingly shaping sectoral priorities, resulting in adjustments in the regulatory framework such as the adoption of alternative models for National Performance Trials. However, previous interventions have often emphasized technical solutions, such as seed multiplication technologies, while overlooking essential socio-economic and institutional dimensions at the level of smallholder producers. As a result, the opportunities offered by the potato processing sector to smallholder potato producers remain to be seen.

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is an important global change driver in forest ecosystems, yet its long-term effects on belowground microbial communities in cold-temperate coniferous forests remain insufficiently understood. In this study, endpoint shotgun metagenomic sequencing was used to evaluate bulk soil microbial communities after 12 years of experimental N addition in a Larix gmelinii-dominated forest in the Greater Khingan Mountains of northeastern China. Four treatments were included: control (0 kg N ha−1 yr−1), low N (25 kg N ha−1 yr−1), medium N (50 kg N ha−1 yr−1), and high N (75 kg N ha−1 yr−1). Microbial alpha diversity did not differ significantly among treatments, although moderate N addition showed a tendency to maintain relatively higher richness and diversity. In contrast, beta-diversity analysis indicated clear shifts in community composition along the N addition gradient. Pseudomonadota, Acidobacteriota, and Actinomycetota dominated the microbial communities, with Pseudomonadota tending to increase under N enrichment, whereas some oligotrophic groups showed reduced relative abundance. Functional annotation showed that metabolism-related genes remained dominant across treatments, and carbohydrate-active enzyme profiles suggested altered microbial potential for complex carbon decomposition under long-term N input. Nitrogen addition also modified the abundance patterns of some antibiotic resistance genes and mobile genetic elements, although overall resistome differentiation among treatments remained limited. These results provide endpoint metagenomic evidence that long-term N addition can reshape bulk soil microbial community composition and selected functional potentials in cold-temperate coniferous forest soils, even when overall alpha diversity remains relatively stable.