Drivers Of Temporal Variability Research Articles

Conodont size in time and space: Beyond the temperature-size rule

The temperature-size rule (TSR) states that ectotherms mature at smaller adult body size in warmer conditions. Such a rule may have the potential to explain size response of fossil organisms to past temperature variations, but its validity in deep time has been seldom tested. The generality of this rule was investigated here by compiling data documenting the size record of three conodont genera (Palmatolepis, Ancyrodella and Polygnathus) at different spatial and temporal scales during the Late Frasnian and the Famennian, characterized by short- and long-term temperature variations. Statistical models were used to investigate the relationship between conodont size and oxygen isotope values, considered as paleotemperature proxies. Comparison of evolutionary models further allowed to test alternative modes of size variation such as stasis or punctuation.The TSR was not validated as a general rule explaining size variation in these fossil records, being only observed as a large-scale geographic trend during a time-slice. The only strong support for temperature being the driver of temporal variations was found regarding the size of Palmatolepis during the Kellwasser period, but the relationship was reverse to the expectation of the TSR. The absence of general TSR pattern is probably due to the interference of many other factors (demography and mortality patterns, temperature tolerance, size reduction due to stress) whose relative importance may depend on the time interval and the genus considered. Rather than a correlation with environmental proxies, evolutionary models suggested the occurrence of a synchronous shift in Palmatolepis size around 369 Ma (Palmatolepis termini conodont Zone) in several outcrops, raising questions about the environmental forcing beyond this shift. Departures from the expected TSR may thus provide relevant insights into the complex interplay of physical, tectonic and eco-evolutionary processes impacting size evolution in deep time.

Drivers of temporal variation in benthic cover and coral health of an oceanic intertidal reef in Southwestern Atlantic

Intertidal environments and shallow reefs are subject to natural disturbances and impacts by humans that influence their dynamics and therefore their conservation. These environments are among the most subject to anthropogenic impacts worldwide, ranging from global warming to local pollution and disordered tourism. Fernando de Noronha Marine National Park is an important Marine Protected Area that covers marine habitats up to 50 m deep of an oceanic archipelago off North East Brazil. It is a no-take area, so the main potential impacts in intertidal and shallow environments there are related to tourism, pollution and climate change. One of the chief tourist attractions in this Park is a tide pool where snorkelers can dive under a series of regulations. We monitored corals and benthic organisms in this tide pool for two years and evaluated their response to different disturbances: burial by sand, temperature anomalies, and tourism. We observed high temporal variability in the benthic cover in the Atalaia pool, with an important role of the sand being naturally brought by waves coming from the southeast to south-southeast direction on a seasonal basis. Despite the highly variable environment of this pool leading to periodic visual coral cover decrease when sand accumulated, coral health was not significantly affected neither by burial nor by the number of visitors accessing the pool. However, sea temperature anomaly played a role, being the main environmental driver affecting coral health, leading to increased paleness, bleaching and unhealthy purple/pink color and causing changes on the associated symbionts. Regardless of the local scope of this monitoring, this is an interesting study case to be used by other marine parks, explicitly showing how biological monitoring can aid the evaluation and potential adjustments to management strategies.

Long-term temporal trends in gastrointestinal parasite infection in wild Soay sheep.

Monitoring the prevalence and abundance of parasites over time is important for addressing their potential impact on host life histories, immunological profiles and their influence as a selective force. Only long-term ecological studies have the potential to shed light on both the temporal trends in infection prevalence and abundance and the drivers of such trends, because of their ability to dissect drivers that may be confounded over shorter time scales. Despite this, only a relatively small number of such studies exist. Here, we analysed changes in the prevalence and abundance of gastrointestinal parasites in the wild Soay sheep population of St. Kilda across 31 years. The host population density (PD) has increased across the study, and PD is known to increase parasite transmission, but we found that PD and year explained temporal variation in parasite prevalence and abundance independently. Prevalence of both strongyle nematodes and coccidian microparasites increased during the study, and this effect varied between lambs, yearlings and adults. Meanwhile, abundance of strongyles was more strongly linked to host PD than to temporal (yearly) dynamics, while abundance of coccidia showed a strong temporal trend without any influence of PD. Strikingly, coccidian abundance increased 3-fold across the course of the study in lambs, while increases in yearlings and adults were negligible. Our decades-long, intensive, individual-based study will enable the role of environmental change and selection pressures in driving these dynamics to be determined, potentially providing unparalleled insight into the drivers of temporal variation in parasite dynamics in the wild.

Greenhouse gas fluxes (CO2, N2O and CH4) of pea and maize during two cropping seasons: Drivers, budgets, and emission factors for nitrous oxide

Agriculture contributes considerably to the increase of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence, magnitude and drivers of temporal variations in carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) fluxes in croplands are urgently needed to develop sustainable, climate-smart agricultural practices. However, our knowledge of GHG fluxes from croplands is still very limited. The eddy covariance technique was used to quantify GHG budgets and N2O emission factors (EF) for pea and maize in Switzerland. The random forest technique was applied for gap-filling N2O and CH4 fluxes as well as to determine the relevance of environmental, vegetation vs. management drivers of the GHG fluxes during two cropping seasons. Environmental (i.e., net radiation, soil water content, soil temperature) and vegetation drivers (i.e., vegetation height) were more important drivers for GHG fluxes at field scale than time since management for the two crop species. Both crops acted as GHG sinks between sowing and harvest, clearly dominated by net CO2 fluxes, while CH4 emissions were negligible. However, considerable N2O emissions occurred in both crop fields early in the season when crops were still establishing. N2O fluxes in both crops were small later in the season when vegetation was tall, despite high soil water contents and temperatures. Results clearly show a strong and highly dynamic microbial-plant competition for N driving N2O fluxes at the field scale. The total loss was 1.4 kg N2O-N ha−1 over 55 days for pea and 4.8 kg N2O-N ha−1 over 127 days for maize. EFs of N2O were 1.5 % (pea) and 4.4 % (maize) during the cropping seasons, clearly exceeding the IPCC Tier 1 EF for N2O. Thus, sustainable, climate-smart agriculture needs to consider crop phenology and better adapt N supply to crop N demand for growth, particularly during the early cropping season when competition for N between establishing crops and soil microorganisms modulates N2O losses.

Drivers of temporal variations in fish assemblages from mangrove creeks in Beihai, southern China.

Mangroves are regarded as important settlement grounds and nurseries for fishes due to the sheltered nature of these ecosystems. To identify the drivers of temporal variations in fish assemblages, seasonal variations of fish assemblages and environmental variables were investigated in Nanliu River Estuary, China, from July 2019 to May 2020. In total, 17,680 individuals weighing 24,724.73 g belonging to 23 families and 45 species were collected. The dominant species were Ambassis urotaenia, Mugil cephalus, Coptodon zillii, Gambusia affinis, and Bostrychus sinensis. Fish assemblages were significantly different in seasonal periodicity according to the results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Kruskal-Wallis test results revealed that species richness, fish abundance, and biomass were significantly different, seasonally. The highest number of fish specimens captured was recorded in winter and summer, while the highest biomass was observed in autumn. Different ecological types of fish utilized mangroves in different ways. Hence, the findings in this study are instrumental in understanding and the conservation of mangroves even coastal wetland and fish resources in the process of mangrove restorations.

Assessing the Temporal Variability and Drivers of Transparent Exopolymer Particle Concentrations and Production Rates in a Subtropical Estuary

Transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) are the central mechanism by which carbon is shuttled from the surface to the deep ocean. Despite the importance of these particles, the magnitude and drivers of temporal variability in the concentration and production rate of TEP in the ocean are not well resolved, especially in highly dynamic and productive regions like estuaries. Here, TEP dynamics were evaluated across weekly, tidal, and diel time scales within the Skidaway River Estuary (GA, USA) and adjacent coastal waters in the South Atlantic Bight. No significant trends in TEP concentration or production rates were observed over weekly time scales, though over tidal cycles, TEP concentration varied between tide stage and TEP:chlorophyll ratios were always lower at low relative to high tides. Over sequential diel cycles, TEP concentrations were two times higher at night relative to midday. Different biological and environmental variables were correlated with TEP dynamics (Spearman ρ) depending on the time scale considered, reinforcing the importance of time-specific drivers of TEP. These results emphasize the importance in considering the temporal variability of field-based TEP measurements, with implications for accurate assessments of carbon cycling in coastal ecosystems and the incorporation of TEP into carbon export models.

The relevance of larval biology on spatiotemporal patterns of pathogen connectivity among open-marine salmon farms

Warming waters are changing marine pathogen dispersal patterns and infectivity worldwide. Coupled biological–physical modelling has been used in many systems to determine the connectivity of metapopulations via infectious disease particles. Here we model the connectivity of sea lice larvae (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) among salmon farms in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia, Canada, using a coupled biological–physical model. The physical model simulated pathogen dispersal, while the biological component influenced the survival and developmental rates of the sea lice. Model results predicted high temporal variability in connectivity strength among farms, an emergent effect from the interacting parts of the simulation (dispersion versus survival and development). Drivers of temporal variability were disentangled using generalized additive modeling, which revealed the variability was most strongly impacted by the spring freshet, which can act as a natural aid for sea lice control in the Broughton Archipelago. Our results suggest that farm management strategies can benefit by accounting for short-term spikes in regional pathogen connectivity among farms. Additionally, future scenarios of a warming climate with reduced snowpack can make sea lice control more challenging.

Biased estimation of trends in cohort effects: the problems with age-period-cohort models in ecology.

Environmental variation can generate life-long similarities among individuals born in the same breeding event, so-called cohort effects. Studies of cohort effects have to account for the potentially confounding effects of current conditions (observation year) and age of individuals. However, estimation of such models is hampered by inherent collinearity, as age is the difference between observation year (period) and cohort year. The difficulties of separating linear trends in any of the three variables in Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models are the subject of ongoing debate in social sciences and medicine but have remained unnoticed in ecology. After reviewing the use of APC models, we investigate the consequences of model specification on the estimation of cohort effects, using both simulated data and empirical data from a long-term individual-based study of reindeer in Svalbard. We demonstrate that APC models are highly sensitive to the model's treatment of age, period and cohort, which may generate spurious temporal trends in cohort effects. Avoiding grouping ages and using environmental covariates believed to be drivers of temporal variation reduces the APC identification problem. Nonetheless, ecologists should use caution, given that the specification issues in APC models may have substantial impacts on estimated effect sizes and therefore conclusions.

It’s not the heat, it’s the vulnerability: attribution of the 2016 spike in heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona

Health risk assessments for extreme heat and the design of corresponding interventions can be enhanced with more information regarding causal drivers of year-to-year variability in adverse outcomes. Summer 2016 was a record-setting year in terms of summer heat and its impacts on health in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA. The month of June was the warmest observed in the county and the six-month warm season spanning May through October was the fourth warmest. In the same year, a record number of heat-associated deaths was reported by the heat surveillance program run by the county health department. We analyzed the time series of heat-associated deaths to quantify the extent to which the unprecedented death count in 2016 was driven by anomalous weather. We first estimated the historical association between temperature and heat-associated deaths for the time period 2006–2015 using a time series regression model. Subsequently, we used the model to generate predictions of daily heat-associated deaths in 2016 based on the observed weather. We found no evidence that the unusually high number of heat-associated deaths observed in Maricopa County in 2016 was related to observed meteorological conditions. Regardless of the exposure variable or model parameterization chosen, the prediction for 2016 fell near or below the historical average number of heat-associated deaths. If the conventional methods for estimating the temperature–mortality association are reasonably approximating a causal relationship, factors other than the weather were mostly responsible for the surge in deaths in 2016. These findings highlight the importance of non-meteorological factors as drivers of temporal variability in the health burden associated with heat, which have generally not been included in quantitative retrospective or prospective studies. Further, they highlight a shortcoming in preparedness and response efforts for heat in the study setting that should be diagnosed and addressed as soon as possible.

Vegetation as a driver of temporal variations in slope stability: The impact of hydrological processes

AbstractAlthough vegetation is increasingly used to mitigate landslide risks, how vegetation affects the temporal variability of slope stability is poorly understood, especially in earthquake‐prone regions. We combined 3‐year long soil moisture monitoring, measurements of soil physical properties and plant functional traits, and numerical modeling to compare slope stability under paired land uses with and without trees in tropical, subtropical, and temperate landslide‐ and earthquake‐prone regions. Trees improved stability for 5–12 months per year from drawdown of soil moisture and resulted in less interannual variability in the duration of high‐stability periods compared to slopes without trees. Our meta‐analysis of published data also showed that slopes with woody vegetation were more stable and less sensitive to climate and soil factors than slopes with herbaceous vegetation. However, estimates of earthquake magnitude necessary to destabilize slopes at our sites suggest that large additional stabilization from trees is necessary for meaningful protection against external triggers.

Temporal changes in photoreactivity of dissolved organic carbon and implications for aquatic carbon fluxes from peatlands

Abstract. Aquatic systems draining peatland catchments receive a high loading of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the surrounding terrestrial environment. Whilst photo-processing is known to be an important process in the transformation of aquatic DOC, the drivers of temporal variability in this pathway are less well understood. In this study, 8 h laboratory irradiation experiments were conducted on water samples collected from two contrasting peatland aquatic systems in Scotland: a peatland stream and a reservoir in a catchment with high percentage peat cover. Samples were collected monthly at both sites from May 2014 to May 2015 and from the stream system during two rainfall events. DOC concentrations, absorbance properties and fluorescence characteristics were measured to investigate characteristics of the photochemically labile fraction of DOC. CO2 and CO produced by irradiation were also measured to determine gaseous photoproduction and intrinsic sample photoreactivity. Significant variation was seen in the photoreactivity of DOC between the two systems, with total irradiation-induced changes typically 2 orders of magnitude greater at the high-DOC stream site. This is attributed to longer water residence times in the reservoir rendering a higher proportion of the DOC recalcitrant to photo-processing. During the experimental irradiation, 7 % of DOC in the stream water samples was photochemically reactive and direct conversion to CO2 accounted for 46 % of the measured DOC loss. Rainfall events were identified as important in replenishing photoreactive material in the stream, with lignin phenol data indicating mobilisation of fresh DOC derived from woody vegetation in the upper catchment. This study shows that peatland catchments produce significant volumes of aromatic DOC and that photoreactivity of this DOC is greatest in headwater streams; however, an improved understanding of water residence times and DOC input–output along the source to sea aquatic pathway is required to determine the fate of peatland carbon.

Mixing as a driver of temporal variations in river hydrochemistry: 1. Insights from conservative tracers in the Andes‐Amazon transition

AbstractThe response of hillslope processes to changes in precipitation may drive the observed changes in the solute geochemistry of rivers with discharge. This conjecture is most robust when variations in the key environmental factors that affect hillslope processes (e.g., lithology, erosion rate, and climate) are minimal across a river's catchment area. For rivers with heterogenous catchments, temporal variations in the relative contributions of different tributary subcatchments may modulate variations in solute geochemistry with runoff. In the absence of a dense network of hydrologic gauging stations, alternative approaches are required to distinguish between the different drivers of temporal variability in river solute concentrations. In this contribution, we apportion the water and solute fluxes of a reach of the Madre de Dios River (Peru) between its four major tributary subcatchments during two sampling campaigns (wet and dry seasons) using spatial variations in conservative tracers. Guided by the results of a mixing model, we identify temporal variations in solute concentrations of the main stem Madre de Dios that are due to changes in the relative contributions of each tributary. Our results suggest that variations in tributary mixing are, in part, responsible for the observed concentration‐discharge (C‐Q) relationships. The implications of these results are further explored by reanalyzing previously published C‐Q data from this region, developing a theoretical model of tributary mixing, and, in a companion paper, comparing the C‐Q behavior of a suite of major and trace elements in the Madre de Dios River system.

Mixing as a driver of temporal variations in river hydrochemistry: 2. Major and trace element concentration dynamics in the Andes‐Amazon transition

AbstractVariations in riverine solute chemistry with changing runoff are used to interrogate catchment hydrology and to investigate chemical reactions in Earth's critical zone. This approach requires some understanding of how spatial and temporal averaging of solute‐generating reactions affect the dissolved load of rivers and streams. In this study, we investigate the concentration‐runoff (C‐Q) dynamics of a suite of major (Na, Mg, Ca, Si, K, and SO4) and trace (Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ge, Li, Mn, Mo, Nd, Ni, Rb, Sr, U, V, and Zn) elements in nested catchments of variable size, spanning the geomorphic gradient from the Andes Mountains to the Amazon Foreland‐floodplain. The major elements exhibit various degrees of dilution with increasing runoff at all sites, whereas the concentrations of most trace elements either increase or show no relationship with increasing runoff in the three larger catchments (160–28,000 km2 area). We show that the observed main stem C‐Q dynamics are influenced by variable mixing of tributaries with distinct C‐Q relationships. Trace element C‐Q relationships are more variable among tributaries relative to major elements, which could be the result of variations in geomorphology, lithology, and hydrology of the subcatchments. Certain trace metals are also lost from solution during in‐channel processes (possibly related to colloidal size‐partitioning), which may exert an additional control on C‐Q dynamics. Overall, we suggest that tributary aggregation effects should be assessed in heterogeneous catchments before C‐Q or ratio‐Q relationships can be interpreted as reflecting catchment‐wide solute generation processes and their relationship to hydrology.