Drivers Of Extinction Research Articles

Interference competition with an invasive species as potential driver of rapid extinction in an island-endemic lizard

Competition between native and alien species is often described as a main driver of biodiversity loss. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence of animal declines and extinctions actually determined by competition. The Aeolian lizard, Podarcis raffonei, is critically endangered because it suffered dramatic declines and extinctions throughout its range. Competition and hybridization with invasive Italian lizards, Podarcis siculus, have been proposed as a driver of the shrinkage of Aeolian lizards, still the mechanisms underlying their decline remain poorly resolved. We used observations of behavioral encounters, combined with morphological data and robust species identification based on genomics, to test whether agonistic interactions with the invasive Italian lizard can explain the competitive exclusion and rapid decline of the native Aeolian lizard while accounting for hybridization. Invasive lizards were larger, with larger heads, and showed higher bite tendency against neutral items. In agonistic encounters between males, Aeolian lizards received more attacks and escaped more frequently than invasive males. The performance of Aeolian males was particularly poor in interspecific encounters. Genomic data verified that tested individuals were all pure P. raffonei or P. siculus, with a single hybrid individual detected. The strong competitive advantage of invasive males can allow them monopolizing territories, potentially hampering the reproduction of both native males and females, thus resulting in a mechanism of sterilizing interference. Reproductive interference competition mediated by spatial exclusion might be an unappreciated process determining rapid decline in endemic species. Safeguarding areas devoid of invasive species should be the priority strategy to avoid the extinction of the Aeolian lizards.

Small populations of Palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction.

The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~14.2-13.2 ka), small area (~11 000 km2), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus (Phanourios minor) and dwarf elephants (Palaeoloxodon cypriotes). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes (n = 3000-7000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record (P. minor at ~12-11.1 ka, followed by P. cypriotes at ~10.3-9.1 ka).

Exploring the macroevolutionary impact of ecosystem engineers using an individual‐based eco‐evolutionary simulation

AbstractEcosystem engineers can radically reshape ecosystems by modulating the availability of resources to other organisms through modifying either physical or biological aspects of the environment. The introduction or removal of ecosystem engineers from otherwise stable ecosystems can impact the diversity of co‐occurring species, such as driving local extinctions of native taxa. While these impacts are well established over ecological timescales for a wealth of taxa, the macroevolutionary implications of the onset of ecosystem engineering behaviours are less clear. Despite this uncertainty, ecosystem engineering has been implicated in several major transitions in Earth history including the appearance of extensive bioturbation during the Cambrian substrate revolution and associated Ediacaran–Cambrian turnover, and the Great Oxygenation Event. Whether ecosystem engineers are frequently associated with turnover and extinction in deep time is not known. Here we investigate this with an eco‐evolutionary simulation framework in which we assign lineages the ability to impact the fitness of co‐occurring taxa through phenotype–environment feedback. We explore numerous conditions, including how frequently such feedback occurs, and whether ecosystem engineers modify or create niches. We show that there is no general expected outcome from the introduction of ecosystem engineers. In a minority of runs, ecosystem engineering lineages completely dominate, rendering all others extinct, but in others they persist (but do not dominate), or die out. We suggest that ecosystem engineers have complex impacts, but possess the capacity to profoundly shape diversity, and it is appropriate to consider them alongside other exogenous extinction drivers in deep time.

Identifying key drivers of extinction for Chitala populations: data-driven insights from an intraguild predation model using a Bayesian framework

Identifying key drivers of extinction for Chitala populations: data-driven insights from an intraguild predation model using a Bayesian framework

Spatial heterogeneity of extinction risk for flowering plants in China

Understanding the variability of extinction risk and its potential drivers across different spatial extents is crucial to revealing the underlying processes of biodiversity loss and sustainability. However, in countries with high climatic and topographic heterogeneity, studies on extinction risk are often challenged by complexities associated with extent effects. Here, using 2.02 million fine-grained distribution records and a phylogeny including 27,185 species, we find that the extinction risk of flowering plants in China is spatially concentrated in southwestern China. Our analyses suggest that spatial extinction risks of flowering plants in China may be caused by multiple drivers and are extent dependent. Vegetation structure based on proportion of growth forms is likely the dominant extinction driver at the national extent, followed by climatic and evolutionary drivers. Finer extent analyses indicate that the potential dominant extinction drivers vary across zones and vegetation regions. Despite regional heterogeneity, we detect a geographical continuity potential in extinction drivers, with variation in West China dominated by vegetation structure, South China by climate, and North China by evolution. Our findings highlight that identification of potential extent-dependent drivers of extinction risk is crucial for targeted conservation practice in countries like China.

Extinction selectivity obscures patterns of trait‐dependent endangerment in Columbiformes

AbstractAimUnderstanding how extinction has occurred in the recent past is crucial to unravel its main drivers as well as to implement effective conservation practices to minimize global biodiversity loss. It has long been hypothesized that extinction risk is not randomly distributed among traits of species. However, the actual traits making species more prone to extinction may have been overlooked because already extinct species are often not considered in comparative analyses of extinction risk. We characterized the drivers of extinction in a cosmopolitan bird clade, including Holocene and contemporary extinctions potentially related to human impacts and provided evidence of an ‘extinction selectivity’ in species traits.LocationGlobal.Time periodAnthropocene.Major taxa studiedColumbiformes clade, pigeons and doves.MethodsWe constructed a new phylogenetic hypothesis of the Columbiformes, a cosmopolitan bird clade consisting of 33 recently extinct and 351 extant species. Then, we integrated data on geography, behaviour and morphology to reveal the drivers of extinction risk. We used phylogenetic generalized least square models to test the effect of geography, behaviour and morphology in the risk of extinction and identified differences in the drivers of extinction when including versus excluding recently extinct species.ResultsOur analysis revealed that Columbiformes endemic to islands with ground‐foraging habits, weak flying abilities, migratory behaviour and larger body sizes are more vulnerable to extinction. Our results also show that excluding recently extinct species identifies extinction drivers different from those when including recently extinct species.Main conclusionsOnly by accurately identifying the traits that increase extinction risk we can develop targeted conservation measures that promote the long‐term persistence of threatened species. Extinction selectivity has important implications for the conservation of biological communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning, considering the critical role Columbiformes often play as seed dispersers.

Diversity-dependent speciation and extinction in hominins

The search for drivers of hominin speciation and extinction has tended to focus on the impact of climate change. Far less attention has been paid to the role of interspecific competition. However, research across vertebrates more broadly has shown that both processes are often correlated with species diversity, suggesting an important role for interspecific competition. Here we ask whether hominin speciation and extinction conform to the expected patterns of negative and positive diversity dependence, respectively. We estimate speciation and extinction rates from fossil occurrence data with preservation variability priors in a validated Bayesian framework and test whether these rates are correlated with species diversity. We supplement these analyses with calculations of speciation rate across a phylogeny, again testing whether these are correlated with diversity. Our results are consistent with clade-wide diversity limits that governed speciation in hominins overall but that were not quite reached by the Australopithecus and Paranthropus subclade before its extinction. Extinction was not correlated with species diversity within the Australopithecus and Paranthropus subclade or within hominins overall; this is concordant with climate playing a greater part in hominin extinction than speciation. By contrast, Homo is characterized by positively diversity-dependent speciation and negatively diversity-dependent extinction—both exceedingly rare patterns across all forms of life. The genus Homo expands the set of reported associations between diversity and macroevolution in vertebrates, underscoring that the relationship between diversity and macroevolution is complex. These results indicate an important, previously underappreciated and comparatively unusual role of biotic interactions in Homo macroevolution, and speciation in particular. The unusual and unexpected patterns of diversity dependence in Homo speciation and extinction may be a consequence of repeated Homo range expansions driven by interspecific competition and made possible by recurrent innovations in ecological strategies. Exploring how hominin macroevolution fits into the general vertebrate macroevolutionary landscape has the potential to offer new perspectives on longstanding questions in vertebrate evolution and shed new light on evolutionary processes within our own lineage.

Using historical habitat loss to predict contemporary mammal extirpations in Neotropical forests.

Understanding which species will be extirpated in the aftermath of large-scale human disturbance is critical to mitigating biodiversity loss, particularly in hyperdiverse tropical biomes. Deforestation is the strongest driver of contemporary local extinctions in tropical forests but may occur at different tempos. The 2 most extensive tropical forest biomes in South America-the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon-have experienced historically divergent pathways of habitat loss and biodiversity decay, providing a unique case study to investigate rates of local species persistence on a single continent. We quantified medium- to large-bodied mammal species persistence across these biomes to elucidate how landscape configuration affects their persistence and associated ecological functions. We collected occurrence data for 617 assemblages of medium- to large-bodied mammal species (>1kg) in the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon. Analyzing natural habitat cover based on satellite data (1985-2022), we employed descriptive statistics and generalized linear models (GLMs) to investigate ecospecies occurrence patterns in relation to habitat cover across the landscapes. The subregional erosion of Amazonian mammal assemblage diversity since the 1970s mirrors that observed since the colonial conquest of the Atlantic Forest, given that 52.8% of all Amazonian mammals are now on a similar trajectory. Four out of 5 large mammals in the Atlantic Forest were prone to extirpation, whereas 53% of Amazonian mammals were vulnerable to extirpation. Greater natural habitat cover increased the persistence likelihood of ecospecies in both biomes. These trends reflected a median local species loss 63.9% higher in the Atlantic Forest than in the Amazon, which appears to be moving toward a turning point of forest habitat loss and degradation. The contrasting trajectories of species persistence in the Amazon and Atlantic Forest domains underscore the importance of considering historical habitat loss pathways and regional biodiversity erosion in conservation strategies. By focusing on landscape configuration and identifying essential ecological functions associated with large vertebrate species, conservation planning and management practices can be better informed.

The latest freshwater giants: a new Peltocephalus (Pleurodira: Podocnemididae) turtle from the Late Pleistocene of the Brazilian Amazon.

Overkill of large mammals is recognized as a key driver of Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions in the Americas and Australia. While this phenomenon primarily affected mega-mammals, its impact on large Quaternary reptiles has been debated. Freshwater turtles, due to the scarcity of giant forms in the Quaternary record, have been largely neglected in such discussions. Here we present a new giant podocnemidid turtle, Peltocephalus maturin sp. nov., from the Late Pleistocene Rio Madeira Formation in the Brazilian Amazon, that challenges this assumption. Morphological and phylogenetic analyses of the holotype, a massive partial lower jaw, reveal close affinities to extant Amazonian species and suggest an omnivorous diet. Body size regressions indicate Pe. maturin possibly reached about 180 cm in carapace length and is among the largest freshwater turtles ever found. This finding presents the latest known occurrence of giant freshwater turtles, hinting at coexistence with early human inhabitants in the Amazon.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Predator-induced prey dispersal can cause hump-shaped density-area relationships in prey populations.

Predation can both reduce prey abundance directly (through density-dependent effects) and indirectly through prey trait-mediated effects. Over the years, many studies have focused on describing the density-area relationship (DAR). However, the mechanisms responsible for the DAR are not well understood. Loss and fragmentation of habitats, owing to human activities, creates landscape-level spatial heterogeneity wherein patches of varying size, isolation and quality are separated by a human-modified "matrix" of varying degrees of hostility and has been a primary driver of species extinctions and declining biodiversity. How matrix hostility in combination with trait-mediated effects influence DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence remains an open question. In this paper, we employ a theoretical spatially explicit predator-prey population model built upon the reaction-diffusion framework to explore effects of predator-induced emigration (trait-mediated emigration) and matrix hostility on DAR, minimum patch size, and species coexistence. Our results show that when trait-mediated response strength is sufficiently strong, ranges of patch size emerge where a nonlinear hump-shaped prey DAR is predicted and other ranges where coexistence is not possible. In a conservation perspective, DAR is crucial not only in deciding whether we should have one large habitat patch or several-small (SLOSS), but for understanding the minimum patch size that can support a viable population. Our study lends more credence to the possibility that predators can alter prey DAR through predator-induced prey dispersal.

Past volcanic activity predisposes an endemic threatened seabird to negative anthropogenic impacts

Humans are regularly cited as the main driver of current biodiversity extinction, but the impact of historic volcanic activity is often overlooked. Pre-human evidence of wildlife abundance and diversity are essential for disentangling anthropogenic impacts from natural events. Réunion Island, with its intense and well-documented volcanic activity, endemic biodiversity, long history of isolation and recent human colonization, provides an opportunity to disentangle these processes. We track past demographic changes of a critically endangered seabird, the Mascarene petrel Pseudobulweria aterrima, using genome-wide SNPs. Coalescent modeling suggested that a large ancestral population underwent a substantial population decline in two distinct phases, ca. 125,000 and 37,000 years ago, coinciding with periods of major eruptions of Piton des Neiges. Subsequently, the ancestral population was fragmented into the two known colonies, ca. 1500 years ago, following eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise. In the last century, both colonies declined significantly due to anthropogenic activities, and although the species was initially considered extinct, it was rediscovered in the 1970s. Our findings suggest that the current conservation status of wildlife on volcanic islands should be firstly assessed as a legacy of historic volcanic activity, and thereafter by the increasing anthropogenic impacts, which may ultimately drive species towards extinction.

The hidden impact of policy changes on remnant vegetation in Queensland, Australia

Habitat loss is a key driver of species extinction, demanding effective policies to regulate land clearing and mitigate this threat. This study examines the impact of policy changes on the availability of vegetation for clearing in Queensland, Australia, focusing on three policy variants from 2012, 2015, and 2019. Our analysis highlights significant shifts in remnant vegetation availability. In 2015, the introduction of permissions for clearing native vegetation for agricultural and pastoral production resulted in an additional 84 million ha of remnant vegetation becoming available for clearing. Furthermore, changes made in 2015 decreased riparian buffer zones, further expanding the extent of remnant vegetation on which clearing for specific purposes is permissible. Between 2015 and 2019, we identified five policy changes with substantial implications for vegetation management, including revoking permission for establishing broad acre cropping or grazing properties and removing thinning as a relevant clearing purpose. While the 2019 guidelines provide increased protection for remnant vegetation, it's crucial to note that all policy changes took place within a relatively brief period. Sudden policy changes can disrupt existing land management practices and strategies, potentially leading to confusion and challenges in adapting to new regulations and requirements. Our findings underscore the need to consider the ecological effects of rapid policy changes, as underestimating their overall impact on vegetation can have far-reaching implications for species preservation and ecosystem health.

Genomic and phenotypic signatures provide insights into the wide adaptation of a global plant invader

Invasive alien species are primary drivers of biodiversity loss and species extinction. Smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) is one of the most aggressive invasive plants in coastal ecosystems around the world. However, the genomic bases and evolutionary mechanisms underlying its invasion success have remained largely unknown. Here, we assembled a chromosome-level reference genome and performed phenotypic and population genomic analyses between native US and introduced Chinese populations. Our phenotypic comparisons showed that introduced Chinese populations have evolved competitive traits, such as early flowering time and greater plant biomass, during secondary introductions along China’s coast. Population genomic and transcriptomic inferences revealed distinct evolutionary trajectories of low- and high-latitude Chinese populations. In particular, genetic mixture among different source populations, together with independent natural selection acting on distinct target genes, may have resulted in high genome dynamics of the introduced Chinese populations. Our study provides novel phenotypic and genomic evidence showing how smooth cordgrass rapidly adapts to variable environmental conditions in its introduced ranges. Moreover, candidate genes related to flowering time, fast growth, and stress tolerance (i.e., salinity and submergence) provide valuable genetic resources for future improvement of cereal crops.

Infectious disease as a driver of declines and extinctions

Abstract Infectious disease is an important driver of extinctions and population declines. With a few exceptions, such as the fungal disease chytridiomycosis in frogs, disease is probably underestimated as a cause of both local and global extinction because it often co-occurs with other more overt drivers of extinction, and its signs can be easily overlooked. Here, we discuss issues around attributing extinction to infectious disease and overview key underlying factors. We then examine the extent to which anthropogenic influences, such as climate change, habitat destruction and exotic species introductions, are likely to lead to increased extinction risk in association with infectious disease. Finally, we discuss strategies to mitigate the threat of extinction due to infectious disease.

Influence of forest type on the diversity, abundance, and naïve occupancy of the mammal assemblage in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest has the highest rate of native vegetation destruction, which is one of the principal drivers of mammal extinctions. Therefore, reducing information gaps regarding diversity patterns, abundance, and habitat use is crucial to understand mammal persistence in fragmented landscapes. Our objective was to establish the γ diversity and to assess the extent to which the α, and β diversity, the relative abundance, and naïve occupation of medium and large-sized mammal communities differ between seasonal and ombrophilous forests. Between January 2019 and March 2020, we placed 22 camera traps in the Atlantic Forest of Minas Gerais. We calculate Hill's numbers using iNEXT.4steps package, the β-diversity with the Betapart package, as well as the relative abundance index (RAI), and naïve occupancy (PAO). We used Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney statistical tests to compare the RAIs between different species and forest types. Finally, we calculated the correlation between the RAIs and PAOs. We found 32 species, principally from the orders Carnivora and Artiodactyla. The alpha diversity and evenness profiles were not different between the two forest types (seasonal q0 = 0.91, q1 = 0.99, q2 = 1, J = 0.83; ombrophilous q0 = 0.96, q1 = 0.99, q2 = 1, J = 0.85). The beta diversity was low (βJAC = 0.37) which was mostly associated with species turnover (βJTU = 0.34), while nestedness was almost non-existent (βJNE = 0.02). The RAIs varied among mammalian species (H = 115.24, P = 0.000), with the highest values for Didelphis aurita (RAI = 4.55 ± 7.66) and Cuniculus paca (RAI = 2.35 ± 3.73) and the minor values for Speothos venaticus (RAI = 0.04 ± 0.24) and Galictis cuja (RAI = 0.06 ± 1.19). The RAIs of species was not significantly different between forests (U = 453.5; Z = 0.37; P = 0.70), and only Leopardus wiedii showed significant differences between forests (U = 84.5; P = 0.01). Most of the mammalian species had restricted occupancy to a few localities (&lt; 50 %). The species Eira barbara and Didelphis aurita had the highest PAOs in both forests (&gt; 50 %), and the species Tayassu pecari, Tamandua tetradactyla, and Speothos venaticus, the lowest values (5 %). We found a correlation of 75 % between the average RAI and naïve occupancy. The γ diversity was representative and consistent with the species found in the Atlantic Forest, and the relative abundance and naïve occupancy reflected the rarity of most species in the area. Additionally, the only difference between the two forests corresponds to species turnover. Therefore, we must conserve native remnants of both forests to ensure the existence of native mammals, mainly the most threatened species, to prevent more dramatic scenarios of local extinction in Minas Gerais.

Functional traits drive the fate of Orthoptera in urban areas

Abstract The replacement of natural areas due to urbanisation represents a major threat to wildlife. Wild species may be classified according to their response towards urban areas. Such responses lead to persistence (exploiters and tolerant) or local extinction (avoiders) of species within cities, which in turn contributes to shaping the assemblages found therein, usually according to specific sets of ecological and morphological traits. Here, we focus on Orthoptera as a model group to test hypotheses on the relationships between species' traits and persistence in urban environments, using the city of Rome, Italy, as study area. By compiling and comparing species checklists for two distinct time frames, we assessed assemblage variation across the last three decades and revealed that local extinction of Orthoptera in urban areas is trait‐biased. Species with low mobility and fertility, and narrower—more specialised—climatic niches showed higher probability of local extinction. Our results point at both climate and land use changes as potentially major drivers of orthopterans' local extinction in urban areas, suggesting that strategies to increase natural habitat preservation and connectivity, and mitigate climate‐change induced events, may both prove effective in sustaining richer insect communities within urban areas.

“Heaven” of Data Deficient Species: The Conservation Status of the Endemic Amphibian Fauna of Vietnam

Predicting the true status of Data Deficient (DD) species is a prominent theme in recent conservation biology, but there still is much debate regarding the conservation approach that should be used for DD taxa and no definitive conclusions are yet available. We review and analyse the current data available on the conservation status of amphibians in Vietnam, with an emphasis on the DD species. We also compare Vietnamese DD frequency of occurrence with other regions of the world, examine the extent of the range of taxa divided by Red List status, and explore the protection attributes of the taxa based on their inclusion within protected areas of Vietnam. We documented that the analysis of amphibians in Southeast Asia, and especially in Vietnam, substantially agrees with patterns highlighted by previous global research, and confirms the risk that several DD species may silently go extinct without their actual risk ever being recognized. Importantly, our study showed that fine-scale analyses are essential to highlight the potential drivers of extinction risk for the DD species of amphibians. A crucial next step for conservation policies in Vietnam (and in surrounding countries) is developing and implementing species-specific studies targeted at addressing each species’ drivers of extinction and determining science-based strategies for minimizing their extinction risk.

Negative effects of the spatial clumping of thermal resources on lizard thermoregulation in a fragmented habitat

In ecosystems threatened by the expansion of croplands, habitat fragmentation and climate change, two of the main extinction drivers, may have thermoregulation-mediated interacting effects on demographic trends of terrestrial ectotherms. We studied the thermal biology of a metapopulation of the widespread Mediterranean lacertid Psammodromus algirus in ten fragments of evergreen or deciduous oak forests interspersed among cereal fields. We obtained thermoregulation statistics (selected temperature range, body and operative temperatures, thermal quality of the habitat, and precision, accuracy, and effectiveness of thermoregulation) that could be compared among fragments and with conspecific populations living in unfragmented habitat. We also measured the selection (use vs. availability) and spatial distribution of sunlit and shaded patches used for behavioral thermoregulation in fragments, and we estimated operative temperatures and thermal habitat quality in the agricultural matrix surrounding the fragments. Variation of the thermal environment was much larger within fragments than among them, and thermoregulation was accurate, precise, and efficient throughout the fragmented landscape; its effectiveness was similar to that of previously studied unfragmented populations. The average distance between sunlit and shaded patches was shorter in deciduous than in evergreen fragments, producing a more clumped distribution of the mosaic of thermal resources. Consequently, in evergreen habitat the cost of thermoregulation was higher, because lizards were more selective in their choice of sunlit sites (i.e. they used sunlit patches closer to shade and refuge than expected at random, and the extent of such selection was larger than at deciduous habitat). Temperatures available in croplands were too high to allow lizard dispersal, at least in the post-breeding season. This result confirms the role of croplands as a thermal barrier that promotes inbreeding and associated fitness losses in isolated fragments, and it forecasts a dark future for populations of forest lizards in agricultural landscapes under the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and global warming.

Partitioning the effects of habitat loss, hunting and climate change on the endangered Chacoan peccary

AbstractAimLand‐use change and overexploitation are major threats to biodiversity, and climate change will exert additional pressure in the 21st century. Although there are strong interactions between these threats, our understanding of the synergistic and compensatory effects on threatened species' range geography remains limited. Our aim was to disentangle the impact of habitat loss, hunting and climate change on species, using the example of the endangered Chacoan peccary (Catagonus wagneri).LocationGran Chaco ecoregion in South America.MethodsUsing a large occurrence database, we integrated a time‐calibrated species distribution model with a hunting pressure model to reconstruct changes in the distribution of suitable peccary habitat between 1985 and 2015. We then used partitioning analysis to attribute the relative contribution of habitat change to land‐use conversion, climate change and varying hunting pressure.ResultsOur results reveal widespread habitat deterioration, with only 11% of the habitat found in 2015 considered suitable and safe. Hunting pressure was the strongest single threat, yet most habitat deterioration (58%) was due to the combined, rather than individual, effects of the three drivers we assessed. Climate change would have led to a compensatory effect, increasing suitable habitat area, yet this effect was negated by the strongly negative and interacting threats of land‐use change and hunting.Main ConclusionsOur study reveals the central role of overexploitation, which is often neglected in biogeographic assessments, and suggests that addressing overexploitation has huge potential for increasing species' adaptive capacity in the face of climate and land‐use change. More generally, we highlight the importance of jointly assessing extinction drivers to understand how species might fare in the 21st century. Here, we provide a simple and transferable framework to determine the separate and joint effects of three main drivers of biodiversity loss.