Double Exponential Method Research Articles

Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in the North Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method

Installation of new wind farms in areas such as the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula is of vital importance to face the local energy demand. For the proper functioning of these facilities it is important to perform wind data analysis, the data having been collected by anemometers, and to consider the particular characteristics of the studied area. However, despite the great development of anemometers, forecasting methods are necessary for the optimal harvesting of wind energy. For this reason, this study focuses on developing an enhanced wind forecasting method that can be applied to wind data from the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula (in general, any type of data). Thus, strategies can be established to generate a greater amount of energy from the wind farms, which supports the local economy of this area. Four variants have been developed based on the traditional double and single exponential methods. Furthermore, these methods were compared to the experimental data to obtain the optimal forecasting method for the Yucatan area. The forecasting method with the highest performance has obtained an average relative error of 7.9510% and an average mean error of 0.3860 m/s.

Growth Model and Forecasting Prices of Some Agricultural Products in Bangladesh

The aim of this paper was to explore the appropriate deterministic time series model using the latest selection criteria considering the price pattern of onion, garlic and potato products in Bangladesh (January 2000 to December 2016). It appeared from our analysis that the time series data for the prices of potato was first order homogenous stationary but onion and garlic were found to be the second order stationary. Four different forecasting models namely, linear trend model, quadratic trend model, exponential growth model, and S-curve trend model were used to find the best fitted model for the prices of above mentioned products in the Bangladesh. Three accuracy measures such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD) were used for the selection of the best fitted model based on lowest value of forecasting error. Lowest values of these errors indicated a best fitted model. After choosing the best growth model by the latest model selection criteria, prices of selected agricultural commodities were forecasted using the following time-series analysis methods: Simple Exponential Method, Double Exponential Method using the time period from January 2017 to December 2021. The findings of this study would be useful for policy makers, researchers, businessmen as well as producers in order to forecast future prices of these commodities.

Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in Dzilam De Bravo, Yucatan, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method

Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in Dzilam De Bravo, Yucatan, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method

Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia

The abundance of water resources avails Indonesia an excellent advantage in terms of the development of the capture and aquaculture fisheries. In recent years, Indonesian fish production has shown an increasing trend. The capture and aquaculture fisheries reached 6.6 million and 16.0 million tonnes respectively in 2016. The growing trend was translated into an average contribution of 2.4 percent towards the national GDP in 2013-2017. However, the absence of forecasting methods and data on fisheries production's potential growth contributes to ineffective policy interventions that require optimum production. Therefore, this study's main objective is to find the most accurate forecasting method for Indonesia's fisheries production. This research utilized the quarterly data of Indonesian fisheries production in 2000-2018 obtained from the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries. A comparative analysis of the Double Exponential and Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) method was undertaken to arrive at the most accurate forecasting method. The study findings broadly revealed that Indonesia's fish production was on an increasing trend, with aquaculture fisheries' contribution outweighing the capture fisheries in recent years. Furthermore, the SARIMA method was found to be the most accurate forecasting method compared to the Double Exponential method. The findings are useful for the government and related stakeholders for enhancing fish productivity in Indonesia. In addition, SARIMA methods could be used to forecast the fish production in upcoming years for better policy, strategy, and decision-making in developing the fisheries sector in Indonesia.

Efficient computation of highly oscillatory Fourier-type integrals with monomial phase functions and Jacobi-type singularities

We present a method for fast computation of highly oscillatory Fourier-type integrals with monomial phase functions and Jacobi-type singularities.It is shown that on an appropriately chosen contour in the complex plane the original integral can be expressed as the sum of two nonoscillatory and rapidly decaying integrals, each of which can be efficiently computed by the generalized Gauss-Laguerre rule or by the double exponential method. For moderate and large frequencies, the proposed method is stable and more efficient than the existing methods. We also give a Mathematica program for the implementation of the method on a computer. The effectiveness and accuracy is tested by means of numerical examples.

Numerical calculation of the full two-loop electroweak corrections to muon (g−2)

Numerical calculation of two-loop electroweak corrections to the muon anomalous magnetic moment ($g$-2) is done based on, on shell renormalization scheme (OS) and free quark model (FQM). The GRACE-FORM system is used to generate Feynman diagrams and corresponding amplitudes. Total 1780 two-loop diagrams and 70 one-loop diagrams composed of counter terms are calculated to get the renormalized quantity. As for the numerical calculation, we adopt trapezoidal rule with Double Exponential method (DE). Linear extrapolation method (LE) is introduced to regularize UV- and IR-divergences and to get finite values. The reliability of our result is guaranteed by several conditions. The sum of one and two loop electroweak corrections in this renormalization scheme becomes $a_\mu^{EW:OS}[1{\rm+}2{\rm -loop}]= 151.2 (\pm 1.0)\times 10^{-11}$, where the error is due to the numerical integration and the uncertainty of input mass parameters and of the hadronic corrections to electroweak loops. By taking the hadronic corrections into account, we get $a_\mu^{EW}[1{\rm+}2 {\rm -loop}]= 152.9 (\pm 1.0)\times 10^{-11}$. It is in agreement with the previous works given in PDG within errors.

Analysis and Predictions of Seasonal Affected Weather Variables of Bangladesh: SARIMA Models vs. Traditional Models

Bangladesh is a semi-tropical country, categorized by widespread seasonal disparities in rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Seasonality has been an input aspect of time series modeling when taking into account weather variables. In terms of multiple features of the weather variables i.e. randomness, cyclical variation and trend, time series methods etc. ARIMA can be a superior preference but, weather variables are affected by seasonality. Thinking about the grimy meadow, this paper presents Seasonal Auto-regressive Moving Average (SARIMA) model that takes seasonal and cyclical variation over the years. This study also aims to compare traditional methods like Single Exponential Method, Double Exponential Method, and Holt Winter Method with the SARIMA model. Time series plots, month plots, and B-B plots are used for identifying seasonal effect clearly. For seasonal stationary checking, Canova Hansen Stationary test has been utilized. Then, the order of the variables is identified, ACF and PACF have been checked and estimated preeminent order for these variables by AIC and Log-likelihood. Finally, Single Exponential Method, Double Exponential Method, and Holt Winter Method are introduced for comparing and forecasting. The proposed models SARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,3)12, SARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,1)12, SARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,2)12 and SARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,1)12 for maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity on the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Log likelihood have been captured most seasonality of the data. Comparing them with traditional methods, traditional methods give a better result than the acquired model based on error measurement. So, traditional methods give a better estimate than the SARIMA models for selected weather variables, with lower mean square error, RMSE, MAE and MASE.

Computing period matrices and the Abel-Jacobi map of superelliptic curves

We present an algorithm for the computation of period matrices and the Abel-Jacobi map of complex superelliptic curves given by an equation $y^m=f(x)$. It relies on rigorous numerical integration of differentials between Weierstrass points, which is done using Gauss method if the curve is hyperelliptic ($m=2$) or the Double-Exponential method. We take linear combination of these integrals to obtain the actual periods on a symplectic basis of loops. The algorithm is implemented and makes it possible to reach thousands of digits accuracy even on large genus curves.

Automatic calculation of two-loop ELWK corrections to the muon (g-2)

Two-loop electroweak corrections to the muon anomalous magnetic moment are automatically calculated by using GRACE-FORM system, as a trial to extend our system for two-loop calculation. We adopt the non-linear gauge (NLG) to check the reliability of our calculation. In total 1780 two-loop diagrams consisting of 14 different topological types and 70 one-loop diagrams composed of counter terms are calculated. We check UV- and IR-divergences cancellation and the independence of the results from NLG parameters. As for the numerical calculation, we adopt trapezoidal rule with Double Exponential method (DE). Linear extrapolation method (LE) is introduced to regularize UV- and IR-divergences and to get finite values.

Effect of micro-structure and oxygen vacancy on the stability of (Zr-Ce)-additive CaO-based sorbent in CO2 adsorption

This study describes the role of micro-structure and oxygen vacancy in CO2 adsorption over (Zr-Ce)-additive CaO. The sorbent was prepared by sol-gel and subjected to characterization in terms of X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR). The sorbent (Ca/Zr/Ce=30:0.5:0.5) demonstrated an excellent CO2 capture capacity (0.65gCO2/gsorbent) up to 35 cycles. The enhanced performance is attributed to well-dispersed Ce2Zr2O7 crystallite particle which prevents CaO crystallite growth and agglomeration. The presence of flake microstructure with porosity, nanosized particles, and uniform distribution of Ca and the inert components are essential to the adsorption of CO2. The existence of Ce4+ in the crystal phase of Ce2Zr2O7 may create oxygen vacancy, which favors the diffusion of CO2 and mobility of O2−, further greatly facilitating the capture of CO2. The kinetics of CO2 adsorption was estimated by a double exponential method.

Quasi-three-dimensional seabed sounding problem using a horizontal electric dipole

We consider the quasi-three-dimensional problem of seabed sounding with a horizontal magnetic dipole. The three-dimensional problem is reduced to a parametric family of two-dimensional problems. The Double Exponential method of Fourier transform evaluation suggests the conjecture that the same harmonics are required to reconstruct the total and the normal field from their spatial spectra. The computer experiment confirms this conjecture and it is shown that solving about 14 two-dimensional problems is sufficient to compute the total field on a single profile. We assess the sensitivity of different electromagnetic field components to the presence of a weakly conducting anomaly above the seabed given observations at the seabed. The highest sensitivity is observed for the component E z ; which can be used to determine both the boundaries and the conductivity of the anomaly. The horizontal components also respond to the anomaly, but more weakly.

Experimental Comparison of Fiber Receivers and a Pinhole Receiver for Dynamic and Static Light Scattering

We have done a study to compare the performance of different optical receivers in both static light scattering and photon correlation spectroscopy experiments. We have compared the results of a commercially available pinhole receiver and three different self-constructed fiber receivers using respectively single-mode, few-mode, and multimode optical fibers. Collection efficiency and spatial coherence factor were experimentally determined and linked to the fiber parameters. Four different monomodal and three different bimodal colloidal suspensions were prepared and measured by photon correlation spectroscopy using different optical receivers. Five different analysis algorithms were used to retrieve particle parameters and size distribution functions: the cumulant method, the non-negatively least-squares method, the exponential sampling method, CONTIN, and the double-exponential method. All programs were part of the Brookhaven ISDA software analysis packet. Special attention was focused on the reproducibility and experimental resolution of the different optical receivers. One monodisperse sample was used to study the noise characteristics of the different optical receivers and to interpret them in terms of Schätzel's noise model for photon correlation spectroscopy (Schätzel, K. Quantum Opt. 1990, 2, 287). For their performance in static light scattering experiments, special attention was given to ease of alignments of the different optical receivers to get a stable symmetrical optical configuration. Each optical receiver was used to perform a static light scattering experiment on the biological macromolecule bovine lens α-crystallin. The experimental results were compared for their reliability and experimental errors on the macromolecular parameters. The single-mode and pinhole receiver performed very well for photon correlation spectroscopy while for static light scattering the best results were obtained for the pinhole and the few-mode receiver. The multimode receiver performed much worse than the other receivers in both photon correlation spectroscopy and static light scattering.