Regional Domestic Product Research Articles

Rapid urbanization through cropland encroachment in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region of China leads to substantial soil organic carbon loss

Abstract Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a major terrestrial carbon reservoir, crucial for the global carbon cycle and climate change. However, the impact of urbanization-induced cropland encroachment on SOC remains underexplored. This study quantified SOC loss in the top 20 cm (SOC20) and 100 cm (SOC100) soil layers in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai (JZH) region from 1985 to 2019 using high-resolution China Land Cover Dataset and multi-temporal SOC maps. Our results show that the cumulative cropland encroachment area in the study area reached 18,925.65 km2, approximately three times the area of Shanghai. The encroached areas of cropland in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai accounted for 59.72%, 31.49%, and 8.79% of the total, respectively. The cumulative SOC100 loss in the JZH region was approximately 65.31 ± 32.45 Tg C, with the SOC20 loss contributing about 32.97%, emphasizing the importance of deep SOC pool. The cumulative SOC20 (SOC100) losses in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai contributed approximately 55.36% (57.74%), 35.76% (31.96%), and 8.87% (10.3%) to the total SOC loss in the JZH region, respectively. Moreover, the annual average SOC100 loss accounted for about 8.6% to 25.59% of the terrestrial carbon sink flux (11.24 Tg C yr–1) in the JZH region, emphasizing that SOC loss due to cropland encroachment cannot be overlooked when evaluating the regional carbon sink capacity. Additionally, the positive correlation between SOC loss and regional Gross Domestic Product highlights the trade-off between economic development model of urban expansion through cropland encroachment and the resulting substantial SOC loss. This study emphasizes the importance of assessing the impacts of urbanization on regional SOC stocks, especially with regard to deep soil, and provides scientific insights for future urban planning and land management in this region.

Can highway development mitigate regional decline in South Korea?—Focus on economic development and population inflow

South Korea has experienced rapid economic development since the 1960s. However, pronounced regional disparities have concurrently emerged. Amid the escalating regional inequalities and persistent demographic challenges characterized by low fertility rates, regional decline has become a pressing issue. Therefore, the feasibility of expanding transportation networks as a countermeasure to regional decline has been proposed. This study utilizes the synthetic control method and spatial difference-in-differences methodologies to assess the impact of the 2017 opening of Seoul–Yangyang Expressway on economic development and population inflow within Hongcheon-gun, Inje-gun, and Yangyang-gun. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of highway development as a policy instrument to mitigate regional decline. Findings from the synthetic control method analysis suggest a positive impact of the opening of the expressway on Hongcheon-gun’s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in 2018, as well as Yangyang-gun’s net migration rates from 2017 to 2019. Conversely, the spatial difference-in-differences analysis, designed to identify spillover effects, reveals negative impacts of the highway on the GRDP and net migration rates of adjacent regions. Consequently, although targeted transportation infrastructure development in key non Seoul Metropolitan cities may contribute to ameliorating regional imbalances, results indicate that such measures alone are unlikely to suffice in attracting population to small- and medium-sized cities outside the Seoul Metropolitan Area.

Sektor Unggulan Sebagai Penggerak Utama Penurunan Kemiskinan di Pacitan

The purpose of this research is to identify and classify the potential resources in Pacitan Regency so that can maximized optimally. This study employs a descriptive quantitative method, based on Gross Regional Domestic Product data at Constant Prices of 2010 for Pacitan Regency and East Java Province from 2018 to 2022. The analytical models used include Location Quotient, Shift Share, Typology Klassen, and followed by a 10-year poverty trend analysis. The results indicate that during this period, Pacitan Regency has only two leading sectors, suggesting the need for future efforts to balance the development of other sectors to avoid over-reliance on these leading sectors. This research serves as a reference for policy-making related to economic advancement in Pacitan Regency, ultimately contributing to poverty reduction.

Analysis Potential of The Fisheries Sub-Sector in Improving GRDP Subang Regency

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the fisheries sub-sector on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Subang Regency by considering indicators of production output and labor force. To achieve this, descriptive analysis was employed on secondary data covering fisheries production output and labor force from the Subang Regency Fisheries Department for the period from 2018 to 2022. Furthermore, this data was analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis using the SPSS program. The results indicate that the variable of fisheries production output partially does not have a significant impact on the GRDP of Subang Regency. Nevertheless, there are several prominent commodities in this sub-sector, including milkfish (Chanos chanos), mackerel (Decapterus sp.), snake mackerel (Trichiuridae sp.), ponyfish (Leiognathidae sp.), scad (Atule mate), sardines (Sardina pilchardus), hilsa shad (Tenualosa macrura), squid (Loligo sp.), and cuttlefish (Sepiida sp.) in marine capture fisheries; (ii) tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus), catfish (Clariidae sp.), and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in inland capture fisheries; (iii) tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus), milkfish (Chanos chanos), milkfish (Moolgarda seheli), snapper (Lutjanus sp.), and seaweed (Eucheuma spinosum).

The Influence of Original Local Government Revenue (PAD), Population, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on Regional Expenditure in Kerinci Regency

Regional Expenditure is a crucial component in regional budget planning, functioning to enhance public services and regional development. Regional Original Revenue (Pendapatan Asli Daerah or PAD) serves as one of the funding sources for the region, population size reflects the needs and distribution of resources, and the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) indicates the economic potential of the area. This study aims to examine the influence of Regional Original Revenue (PAD), population, and GRDP on regional expenditure in Kerinci Regency. Utilizing secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Kerinci Regency over the past ten years, from 2014 to 2023, this research employs a quantitative approach by applying a multiple linear regression model to identify the relationships between independent variables (PAD, population, and GRDP) and regional expenditure as the dependent variable. The results indicate that Regional Original Revenue, population, and GRDP have a significant impact on regional expenditure.

Sumber Daya Alam: Musibah atau Penghargaan (Studi Kasus Provinsi Jawa Timur 2013–2022)

East Java is undoubtedly a region rich in natural resources, as Indonesia has long been known as a country with abundant natural resources. East Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia that has abundant natural resources. Plantations/agriculture, fisheries and marine resources, mining and energy, forestry, and livestock are some examples of these natural resources. There is one surprising fact that naturally a region that has abundant wealth is an advantage for the region, but sometimes the natural wealth of a region can be a blessing and a burden. Panel data regression is used in the study to test three elements: unemployment, poverty, and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) using three approach models in panel data regression analysis, namely the Common Effect, Fixed Effect and Random Effect models, which are then selected from the three models as the best model that can explain the results of the study. The conclusion of the data analysis shows that although the gross regional domestic product of East Java Province has a positive effect on unemployment and a negative effect on poverty.

Spatial analysis of regency city minimum wage, labor force, regional original income and investment affecting gross regional domestic product in central Java province in 2022

Economic growth in Central Java Province is influenced by various regional economic factors, such as the Regency/City Minimum Wage (UMK), labour force, Regional Original Revenue (PAD), and investment, which play an important role in increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). However, economic disparities between regions in the province require in-depth analysis to understand how these factors interact with each other and affect GRDP, as well as to formulate more equitable and sustainable development policies. This study aims to analyze the influence of the variables of Regency/City Minimum Wage (UMK), Total Labor Force (Work), Regional Original Income (PAD), Investment (Foreign Investment and Domestic Capital Investment) on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita in Central Java Province in 2022 and spatial analysis of these factors in 35 Regency / City in Central Java Province. The analysis is quantitative descriptive using regression analysis techniques and spatial analysis with statistical tests on the GeoDa program. The results show that all four variables, namely MSEs, labour force, PAD, and investment, have a significant influence on GRDP with probability values less than 0.05, indicating that these factors directly contribute to economic growth in Central Java. The pattern of economic concentration found mainly around urban areas, such as Semarang City, suggests an economic spillover effect that drives growth in the surrounding areas. These findings reinforce the important role of investment, PAD management, as well as job creation and MSE adjustment in supporting more equitable and sustainable economic development across the province. This study provides strategic insights for more equitable and sustainable economic development planning in Central Java Province.

Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) Disparities in Interwar and Restored Independent Lithuania: A Long-Term Cross-Time Comparison

We provide a pioneering estimation of the regional Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) of the interwar Republic of Lithuania in 1923. This is the only year when a census of the interwar population was conducted, providing data necessary for the application of the Geary-Stark method of indirect estimation of regional output. We also measure productivity disparities across the regions in 1923 and 2001–2020 by Coefficient of Variation (CV), Mean Logarithmic Deviation (MLD), Gini and Theil indexes, to find out how much they have changed during the last hundred years. The main findings are that areas enclosed within the limits of contemporary counties (NUTS3 regions) ranked in this order in 1923 (by rGDP per capita, from richest to poorest): (1) Klaipėda; (2) Šiauliai; (3) Kaunas; (4) Panevėžys; (5) Marijampolė; (6) Telšiai; (7) Alytus; (8) Tauragė; (9) Utena. Overall levels of economic disparity in contemporary Lithuania are significantly higher than in Lithuania within its 1923 borders. However, in the contemporary NUTS2 Central and Western region, which corresponds territorially rather closely to that of the Republic of Lithuania in 1923–1938, they have remained at the same level as in 1923. In this area, Kaunas has taken first place from Klaipėda (but only since 2017), while Šiauliai, Marijampolė and Tauragė have relatively declined.

Tourism Development Impact on Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation in West Java

Poverty alleviation is on the agenda of regional development in West Java. One of the priority sectors is tourism development, which supports inclusive economic growth and is expected to address poverty. Through various unit analyses, the study analyzed how tourism development in West Java impacts economic growth and poverty alleviation. These included indicators such as the number of tourist visits, hotel room occupancy rate, the number of hotels and restaurants, average length of stay, and the tourism sector's contribution to Original Local Government Revenue (PAD). Economic growth was assessed using indicators such as Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), unemployment rate, Gini Index, and regional investment value. In contrast, the poverty variable used the percentage and number of people living in poverty, poverty line statistics, Poverty Depth Index, and Poverty Severity Index. Inferential statistical analysis, specifically Partial Least Square (PLS), was conducted using a quantitative approach and data from BPS - Statistics of West Java. Hypotheses were formulated based on the literature review, asserting that tourism development significantly and positively impacted economic growth and poverty alleviation in West Java. Results showed that tourism development significantly boosted economic performance, directly influencing economic growth. Additionally, high economic growth correlated with reduced poverty rates, highlighting the importance of inclusive growth for alleviation. Key indicators played crucial roles in poverty alleviation, including the number of hotels and restaurants, the tourism sector's contribution to regional revenue, GRDP, and regional investment value. These findings provided valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop effective strategies for leveraging tourism potential to promote inclusive economic growth and alleviate poverty in West Java.

Analysis of the Influencing Mechanism of Space-time Heterogeneity of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture in China

Agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction plays an important role in addressing global climate warming. Researching and revealing the spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as the influencing mechanisms of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, is of great significance for achieving the goals of green and low-carbon development in agriculture. This study examines the agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from 31 provinces （municipalities, autonomous regions） in China from 2000 to 2020. Through the use of geographic detectors, spatial econometric analysis, and other methods, it explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicated the following： ① From 2000 to 2020, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China showed a development process of "slow increase - sharp increase - sharp decrease." ② The spatial heterogeneity of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions was significant, forming three high emission areas in space： the central high emission area centered on Henan, the southern high emission area centered on Guangdong, and the southwestern high emission area centered on Sichuan. The center of gravity showed a trend of shifting northward and westward. ③ Rural population, regional gross domestic product, and agricultural output value were the dominant driving factors causing spatial heterogeneity of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. ④ Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions had spatial spillover effects. When formulating agricultural greenhouse gas reduction targets, it is necessary to adopt a coordinated control strategy among different regions.

Unemployment Transformation Scaling Factors Youth Force in Java Province

:One of the quite serious problems faced by developing countries, especially Indonesia, is unemployment, namely people who do not have jobs, are looking for jobs or are preparing a new business or people who are not looking for jobs because they have been accepted for work but have not started working.The aim of this study is to analyzeYouth Unemployment Transformation Scaling Factors in Java Island which include the number of young people, average length of schooling (RLS), information and communication technology (ICT), gross regional domestic product (GRDP) and investment. This study is a quantitative study using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) model parameter estimation method using Dynamic Panel. The results of this study indicate that RLS and GRDP have a negative and significant short-term and long-term influence on the youth unemployment rate in Java Island. While investment and ICT have a positive and significant short-term and long-term influence on the youth unemployment rate in Java Island. Meanwhile, the number of youth and youth unemployment last year did not have a significant influence on the youth unemployment rate in Java Island.

The Influence of Leading Sectors, Domestic Investment and Population on Regional Original Income (PAD) in Bengkulu Province

This research aims to analyze the influence of leading sectors, domestic investment, and population on Regional Original Income (PAD) in Bengkulu Province. Regional economic development is measured through Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), which reflects resource management capabilities and fiscal independence. The data used in this research is secondary data covering the 2019-2023 periode and analyzed using the Location Quotient (LQ) technique and multiple regression methods. The research results show that leading sectors and domestic investment have a significant influence on PAD, while the influence of population varies depending on the sector studied. These findings emphasize the importance of optimizing potential economic sectors and increasing domestic investment to strengthen fiscal independence and regional competitiveness in Bengkulu Province.

Impact of the Agricultural Sector on Unemployment, Inequality and Rural Poverty: A Panel Regression Analysis in Indonesian Provinces

This study examined how the agricultural sector impacted unemployment, income inequality, and rural poverty across Indonesia’s provinces from 2015 to 2021. Using data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and a panel regression model, the research analyzed the relationships between these factors. It also explored the structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. The findings showed that the agricultural sector’s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), farmer exchange rates, and informal labor significantly influenced unemployment and income inequality in rural areas. However, the pandemic did not have a major effect on income inequality or poverty levels in these areas. The GRDP and value-added in agriculture played a crucial role in reducing rural poverty. The findings also showed that the COVID-19 pandemic did not directly increase or decrease the number of poor people, but it affected informal agricultural workers due to physical distancing measures. The research highlighted the agricultural sector’s importance in addressing unemployment and inequality during the pandemic in Indonesia.

Analysis of the Effect of Sharia Bank Financing and Investment on Economic Growth through Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Credit

This study seeks to examine the impact of sharia bank financing and investment on economic growth in Indonesia by analyzing lending to micro, small, and medium companies (MSMEs) utilizing time series data. This research characterizes economic growth through the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) for each province in Indonesia. This study utilizes secondary data from 2011 to 2022 sourced from BPS, OJK, and Bank Indonesia, analyzed using the Path Application. This report assesses the direct and indirect funding of Islamic banks and their involvement in economic growth via Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) credit. The research findings indicate that the Islamic bank funding variable does not significantly influence the MSME credit variable; nevertheless, the investment variable does have a substantial impact on the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) credit variable.

Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Modeling on Gross Regional Domestic Product of Districts/Cities in Central Java

Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Modeling on Gross Regional Domestic Product of Districts/Cities in Central Java

Assessing Regional Economic Performance in Romania Through Panel ARDL and Panel Quantile Regression Models

This study aims to address the persistent regional economic disparities in Romania by evaluating economic performance through Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (pARDL) and panel quantile regression (PQR) models. The analysis focuses on the impact of key economic variables, including research and development expenditures (CTCRD), IT infrastructures (IT), the number of universities (FCL), and the average number of employees (NMSP), on regional gross domestic product (GDPR). Using data from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics for the period 2003–2022, this research seeks to understand how targeted investments and policy interventions can stimulate growth and reduce inequalities across regions. The findings highlight the important role of R&D, IT infrastructures, and technological advancements in driving economic growth, especially in less developed areas. The study also emphasizes the importance of region-specific strategies in fostering sustainable growth, promoting economic resilience, and bridging the gap between more and less prosperous regions.

Analysis of The Leading Sector for Regional Development: A Case Study of Batam, Bintan, and Karimun (BBK), Riau Islands Province, Indonesia

Abstract: Spatial planning in Batam, Bintan, and Karimun (BBK) areas is prioritized because it has an important impact on the national economy. This research aims to identify the potential leading sectors in the BBK areas as a reference in regional development. This study uses time series data on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) based on constant prices in the BBK areas from 2011 to 2021. The analytical tools used in this research are Location Quotient to identify basic and non-basic sectors, Shift Share Analysis to determine changes and shifts in sectors, and Klassen Typology to determine the classification of sector in each region. The three analytical tools combined results demonstrate that economic growth in Batam is supported by the processing sector. A growing sector in Bintan is related to the tourism. Economic potential in Karimun dominated by the agricultural, forestry, and marine sectors. Tanjungpinang’s economic potential is dominated by the service sector, which supports the city’s role as the capital of the Riau Islands Province. However, the fisheries sector has not developed optimally. As an archipelago, regional development policies in the BBK areas should develop other sectors to optimize the maritime economic potential. Keywords: Klassen Typology, Location Quotient, Leading Sectors, National Strategic Areas, Shift Share Analysis

ADDITIVE HOLT-WINTERS METHOD FOR FORECASTING GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES OF EXPENDITURE OF WEST SUMATRA

Regional disparities often pose significant challenges, with some areas experiencing rapid economic growth while others lag behind. An essential macro benchmark to gauge the success of development initiatives is economic growth, as indicated by changes in a region's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Using GRDP at constant prices (GRDP CP) helps eliminate the impact of price fluctuations, focusing on real increases in production activities. Expenditure GRDP reflects the value of goods and services produced within a region and consumed by the community. In the case of West Sumatra, the GRDP CP expenditure data reveals simultaneous seasonal and trend elements. The seasonal pattern, occurring quarterly each year, exhibits an additive seasonal effect. The Additive Holt-Winters method has been proven effective for data containing seasonal patterns with constant seasonal variation (additive) and linear trends, where the level, trend, and seasonal pattern can change. The data used is secondary data of GRDP CP of expenditure quarterly of West Sumatra in 2010 - 2022 obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. According to research findings, the GRDP CP expenditure with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1.03% for quarter I to quarter IV in 2023 are Rp46,284,010.59, Rp46,472,223.99, Rp47,512,197.79, and Rp48,445,184.94, respectively. This suggests that the model equation performs exceptionally well predicting future economic trends.

The Influence Of Total Production, NTP And Grdp On Labor Absorption In The Coconut Plantation Subsector In Riau Province

This research aims to determine the effect of total production, Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on labor absorption in the smallholder coconut plantation subsector in Riau Province in 2012-2023. In this research, multiple linear regression techniques were used using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The research results show that the simultaneous test (F test) shows that total production, NTP and GRDP together have a significant influence on labor absorption in the coconut plantation subsector in Riau Province in 2012-2023. Meanwhile, the partial regression test (t test) shows that total production has a positive and significant effect on labor absorption, NTP has a positive and significant effect on labor absorption, and GRDP has a negative and insignificant effect on labor absorption. The results of the coefficient of determination (R2) of the independent variable on the dependent variable obtained a value of 0.973238. This means that the contribution of the independent variables (total production, NTP and GRDP) to the dependent variable (demand for employment) is 97.32% and the remaining 2.68% is influenced by other variables outside the regression model in this research.

The Effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product, Human Development Index and Open Unemployment Rate on Economic Growth in Central Java in 2020-2022

Economic growth is a recurring issue that requires hard work and is expected to improve faster in both developed and developing countries. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDRP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) on Central Java's economic growth between 2020 and 2022. Economic growth data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) 2020–2022 report was used to calculate the sample size using the quantitative purposive sampling method. Panel data analysis was used in the Eviews program to examine the data, because the data findings used were time series and cross-section data combined into one. The research findings show that although the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) has no significant effect on economic growth in Central Java from 2021 to 2022, GRDP and HDI have a substantial impact.