Domestic Price Level Research Articles

Assessing the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand: A nonlinear ARDL investigation

Oil prices play a pivotal role in Thailand's economic development due to its heavy reliance on oil imports to meet its energy needs. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly and significantly impact domestic price levels, affecting production costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. To ensure stability and foster economic development, it is crucial to comprehend and effectively manage these dynamics. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of global oil prices on domestic price levels in Thailand, including key indexes such as the producer price index, consumer price index, and export price index, as well as prices of essential commodities like oil palm, sugarcane, cassava, diesel, and gasohol. The study employs both linear and nonlinear ARDL specifications, analyzing monthly time series data from January 2005 to June 2023 to unveil the nature of the relationship between global oil prices and product price levels. The empirical results indicate that most product prices respond to changes in global oil prices in an asymmetrical manner. However, oil palm prices exhibit a symmetrical response, and sugarcane prices do not display a clear pattern during testing. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for short-term and long-term policies aimed at mitigating the impact of domestic oil price fluctuations, ensuring energy stability, and promoting sustainability in the future.

An Assessment of Purchasing Power Parity in the Long-Run: Evidence from India and its four Major Trading Partners

The present study focuses on evaluating the validity of the Relative Purchasing Power Parity (RPPP) theory for India and its four major trading partner nations namely the United States, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia using monthly time series spanning January 2001 to March 2021. For the purpose of empirical analysis, standard Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, as well as the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique, have been applied. Firstly, the stationarity of the real exchange rate has been investigated using standard unit root tests. The findings indicate that each country’s real exchange rate is nonstationary signifying the absence of strong PPP. Thereafter, the weak form of PPP was tested in the second stage using the Johansen cointegration test. The findings of the cointegration test confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among bilateral exchange rates, domestic price levels, and foreign price levels for all countries undertaken except for the UAE. Since three economies from among the total four trading partners’ country-pair support the existence of PPP, it can be said that PPP holds for the Indian rupee exchange rate for the economies so considered. The study further signals that India’s trade with the UAE could lead to arbitrage opportunities.

The Impact of Global Energy Price Volatility on Oil Derivative and Local Price in Jordan: Using DCC-GARCH Model

The central aim of this study is to evaluate the repercussions of global energy price fluctuations on the pricing of local oil derivatives in Jordan, and their subsequent impact on domestic price levels. This research seeks to propose risk mitigation strategies to address the challenges posed by energy price volatility, offering valuable insights for Jordanian policymakers. Given the dearth of understanding among policymakers and industry stakeholders regarding the economic ramifications of global energy prices on local markets, this study posits a statistically significant relationship, at a 5% significance level, between global energy prices, local oil derivative prices, and the prices of commodities and services. To investigate these dynamics, the study employs a DCC-GARCH (Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model, utilizing monthly data spanning from Jan:2008 to Mar:2022, encompassing global energy prices, local energy prices, and the consumer price index. The study's findings reveal that fluctuations in global oil prices, specifically the Brent benchmark, have a discernible impact on local oil derivative prices in Jordan. However, the reverse causal relationship is not supported, indicating a unidirectional link from oil prices to oil derivatives. The estimated DCC-GARCH model further quantifies this connection, demonstrating that a 1% increase in Brent oil prices corresponds to a 0.21% increase in local oil derivative prices within Jordan. Moreover, a 1% uptick in local oil derivative prices corresponds to a 0.23% increase in the consumer price index. Based on these research outcomes, it is strongly recommended that measures be explored to effectively manage the volatility of oil derivative prices in Jordan. The implementation of such measures holds the potential to bolster local price stability and foster a more resilient economic environment.

A study on the risks and efficiency of the forex market based on the detrended fluctuation analysis

Exchange rate fluctuations profoundly impact macroeconomic variables, making them a focal point for policymakers. This study is grounded in the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), asserting that such forecasts offer no utility due to all relevant information being embedded in asset prices. The research problem is rooted in the dynamics of currency exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on the Albanian economy. The research aims to analyse Albanian lek (ALL)/euro (EUR) exchange rate dynamics and their impact on Albania’s economy, assessing market efficiency and providing insights for monetary and fiscal policy design. The method used is a detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which consists of a root mean square analysis of a random walking pattern (Peng et al., 1994). This method is used to assess adherence to the weak form of EMH. Findings indicate that the Albanian foreign exchange market closely resembles a random walk, suggesting efficiency during specific periods. The study underscores the exchange rate’s dual impact: its influence on domestic price levels and its broader implications for the real economy and balance of payments. This paper is relevant as it offers crucial insights into currency exchange rate dynamics and their economic impacts, supporting policymakers in improving Albania’s economic stability and market efficiency.

Effect of Exchange Rate on Domestic Price Level in Nigeria

Nigeria experienced significant depreciation of her currency during the specified period of this study, mainly due to factors such as falling oil prices, external economic conditions such as slowdown in global economic growth, trade tensions which led to capital outflows from emerging markets including markets in Nigeria, tightening of global monetary policy which affected capital flows to these emerging markets, coupled with domestic macroeconomic challenges like concerns over policy consistency, governance issues and security challenges, capital flight and weakened investors’’ confidence. These conditions collectively created an adverse environment for the Nigerian economy, leading to the depreciation of Naira. Consequently, this study set out to achieve the main objective of investigating on a more recent basis, effects of exchange rate on domestic price level in Nigeria. The period covered was from January 2015 through December 2022. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the variables included consumer price inflation, nominal exchange rate, import prices, international crude oil prices and real output growth. We found insignificant positive impact of the nominal exchange rate on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. The import prices also proved a significant effect on consumer price inflation in Nigeria. the study recommends that Governments at all levels in the country should encourage and support the innovative ideas of business firms and individuals. This will support local production, hence, there can be substitution of imported goods for domestically produced goods and the exchange rate will be stable.

The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard

We estimate the impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870–1913. Specialization and trade integration subjected economies to a “commodity lottery” in the form of price fluctuations in world markets. Capital mobility and a currency peg exposed them to interest-rate movements originating in the U.K., the largest economy and linchpin of the classical gold standard. We use these two exogenous shocks to identify positive effects of commodity-export prices on real GDP and the domestic price level and negative effects of exogenous changes in short-term interest rates on the same variables. We show that countercyclical interest rates, defined relative to export-price shocks, stabilized both output and the domestic price level. This stabilization was more effective for the price level than for output.

The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect

Crude oil prices have been considered one of the key drivers of inflation worldwide, reaching a peak in 2022. Inflation targeting plays a pivotal role in such a high inflation episode. In this vein, the exchange rate is a key channel in transmitting the high commodity price into the domestic price level, known as the exchange rate pass-through effect. On this basis, this paper scrutinizes the connection between oil prices and inflation through RMB exchange rates. We verify that the covariance between exchange rates and oil prices are sound factors in explaining and predicting inflation in China. We advocate that policymakers can use the exchange rate as an inflation stabilizer by reducing the covariance between the exchange rate and oil price, especially for emerging economies and during the turmoil periods. This could be extremely helpful to frustrate the exchange rate pass-through effect of high commodity prices globally, which sheds new insights into stabilizing inflation and assisting inflation targeting for emerging economies.

Are monetary transmission channels effective under the quantitative and qualitative easing policy?

AbstractThis study measures the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) policy in affecting Japan's inflation rate. The monetary transmission channels are interest rate, portfolio rebalancing and foreign exchange rate channels. Based on data from 1 August 2013 to 31 October 2019, the Granger's Causality Test showed that the interest rate channel was vital in transmitting the effect of monetary easing. Specifically, the interest rate channel transmitted the effect of QQE, QQE with a negative interest rate and QQE with yield curve control policy to the domestic price level. Portfolio rebalancing and foreign exchange rate channels did not influence Japan's inflation rate in all the QQE policy periods. The empirical results are robust against different estimation methods. Based on the findings, the study offers some imperative policy recommendations.

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks

The global surge in energy costs poses a significant obstacle for the attainment of price stability by the central banks across the world. This obstacle is further magnified for the economies that adopt an inflation-targeting framework and a flexible exchange rate regime. To overcome this challenge, our study attempts to answer whether inflation targeting can achieve price stability if an exchange rate pass-through exists, especially in the presence of energy price shocks. The study uses secondary data from twenty-one inflation-targeting economies for the period 1997-2020 and applies the non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model to test the hypotheses empirically, considering the possible asymmetries. The results confirm that exchange rate depreciation increases domestic price levels, while exchange rate appreciation reduces them in the long run. The study also finds that rising energy prices contribute to higher inflation in inflation-targeting economies. These findings suggest that inflation-targeting economies face a serious challenge in maintaining their core price stability goal due to exchange rate pass-through especially during energy price shocks. The results invite authorities of IT economies to re-evaluate their policy framework that conveniently ignores exchange rate pass-through by requiring a mandatory floating exchange rate regime.

Estimating effects of nominal exchange rates and oil price shocks in the presence of structural breaks

Macroeconomic stability is an objective emerging economy desired to achieve but oil price shocks and fluctuations in nominal exchange rates tend to restrain the ability of these economies to achieve such macroeconomic balance. Regrettably, exchange rates and oil price shocks are prone to have structural breaks in defined periods. We therefore, implemented a bivariate diagonal BEKK model, Zivot-Andrews and Bai-Perron breakpoint tests to evaluate the effect of exchange rates and oil price shocks in the presence of structural breaks on macroeconomic stability in developing countries. Break dates were observed for Benin Republic and Côte d’Ivoire between 1997M01 and 1996M09, Gambia in 2003M12, Niger in 2011M04, Ghana in 2000 and 2008, and Nigeria in 2020. All break dates were attributed to various causes including COVID-19 pandemic, the United States (US) invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US recession, and the Persian Gulf crisis. The findings showed variations in oil prices and exchange rates have a hostile impact on the level of the consumer price index (CPI) after controlling for structural breaks for all countries excluding Burkina Faso. Hence, shocks conveyed significant instability in the domestic price levels of Gambia, Benin, Niger, Ghana, and Nigeria. Models of inflation should be examined after controlling for external crises and structural breaks.

Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility: An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages

This paper empirically examines the effect of foreign capital inflows on domestic price levels, monetary expansion, and the exchange rate volatility for Pakistan using linear and nonlinear causality tests. The key message emerging from the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary impact of capital inflows, in particular during the period of surges in capital inflows. Specifically, we find evidence of a significant nonlinear Granger causality running from capital inflows to the change in domestic prices. We also show that domestic prices are nonlinearly caused (in Granger sense) by the growth of domestic debt and money supply-to-GDP ratio. Our results, however, suggest that the market interest rate and the nominal exchange rate do not have significant relationships with domestic prices. The findings suggest that there is a need to manage the capital inflows in such a way that they should neither create an inflationary pressure in the economy nor fuel the exchange rate volatility. JEL Classification: C22, C32, F21, F31, F32 Keywords: Capital Inflows, Inflationary Pressures, the Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Expansion, Nonlinear Dynamics

The fallacies of central bank independence

The fallacies of central bank independence

A Post-Keynesian Framework for Exchange Rate Equilibrium: Simulations for the Brazilian Economy

ABSTRACT The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables. It directly influences trade and domestic price levels. The real exchange rate (RER) accounts for the price competitiveness of exports; the nominal exchange rate (NER), in its turn, pushes the domestic price level, affecting the achievement of the inflation target under an inflation target regime (ITR). The aim of this work is to present an RER model for external equilibrium and to assess the long-run effects of NER depreciation on inflation. The results are evaluated through simulations for the Brazilian economy. They suggest that the RER was overvalued from 2005 to 2018 and indicate that an overappreciated NER was an important tool to avoid inflation from 2005 to 2014. Therefore, under an ITR, there is no expectation to achieve an RER consistent with the current account equilibrium.

Exchange-rate pass-through in Turkey with a supply and use model

ABSTRACTUsing a multisectoral model and data from the supply and use tables, this article estimates the exchange-rate pass-through to the domestic price level of the Turkish economy. The results indicate that a unit change in the exchange rate leads to 0.61 units of change in the overall price level. This effect comes out mostly through the industry, and the primary sector; while in terms of products, the energy sector is the major actor for the changes in the domestic price level.

Effects of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Vietnam

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on domestic price of goods and services in Vietnam under the impact of the interest rate and refinancing rate over the period 2014 to 2019. Unit root test and many Diagnostic tests are conducted before applying the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model. Estimation results indicate that exchange rate changes have a positive impact on domestic consumer price level means that an increase in the depreciation of Vietnam dong could cause an increase in domestic price, the degree of ERPT into domestic price level is smaller than interest rate and refinancing one. The study also indicates many problems existing in the actual situation in Vietnam. From those analysis results, the study has proposed monetary policy orientations to help stabilize prices and develop macroeconomics.

Evaluation models for the impact of pricing factor on environmental performance in different countries

The need to increase the price of non-green, carbon-emitting goods, as well as the application of new environmental taxes and fees to help solving the global climate crisis, has been actively discussed. However, price is not only a strong impetus for market development, but it can also restrain growth. The price level and population purchasing power belong to the key indexes that define the market capacities in different countries. This paper aims to investigate the impact of income inequality, including price levels and purchasing power, on environmental performance in different countries. The research method is based on RapidMiner’s machine learning programs, applying three modeling algorithms: correlation, clustering, and decision trees with a static index database of more than 150 countries around the world. The results obtained partially confirm the conclusions made by other researchers studying the Environmental Kuznets concept (EKC) effects. In particular, it was found that an important factor influencing the efficiency of the environment in the country’s ecosystem is the level of population’s income. The analysis also shows that environmental performance is strongly dependent on domestic price levels. This may support the hypothesis that the cost of green goods reflects a high benchmark for natural resource costs. However, further research is needed, including such directions as sources of financing for the implementation of circular projects, as well as the associated economic and environmental effects.

Third Country Effect on Exchange Rate: A Theoretical Explanation

This paper presents a theoretical model to explain the third country effect on bilateral exchange rate. The conventional trade theories suggest that the bilateral exchange rate in a free-floating regime is determined by the demand and supply of the two currencies concerned. It implies that all the credit items in the balance of payment forming the supply side and all the debit items in the balance of payment forming the demand side would determine the bilateral equilibrium exchange rate. The traditional two country trade models are based on the implied assumption that the key variables such as exports, imports, FDIs, and net transfers between the two countries are key determinants of the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies concerned. This paper extends the traditional two country model into a three-country model and logically shows the possibility of variables pertaining to a third country to influence the bilateral exchange rate of the two countries concerned, which is known as the "third country effect". The "third country effect" is not a novel concept in trade literature. It has been empirically tested by many researchers on several grounds such as the third country effect on trade, the third country effect on the domestic interest rate, the third country effect on the domestic price level etc. Although almost all such studies more or less have justified empirical evidence supporting the existence of the third country effect, the transmission mechanism of the third country shocks is still not clear. This paper develops a theoretical model to demonstrate how the third country effect is transmitted to the bilateral exchange rate. This paper bridges a long-standing gap in theory and literature.

The Causal Impact of the Rapid Czech Interest Rate Hike on the Czech Exchange Rate Assessed by the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model

I have employed the Bayesian Structural Time Series model to assess the recent interest rate hike by the Czech Central Bank and its causal impact on the Koruna exchange rate. By forecasting exchange rate time series in the absence of the intervention we can subtract the observed values from the prediction and estimate the causal effect. The results show that the impact was little and time limited in one model specification and none in the second version. It implies that the Czech Central Bank possesses the ability to diverge significantly from the Eurozone benchmark interest rate at least in the short term. It also shows that the interest rate hike will not be able to curb global inflation forces on the domestic price level.

The external sector shocks and macroeconomics in Nigeria

The study examines the relationship between some key macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria and the external sector. During the period under review, it was discovered that crude oil had a lion’s share of Nigeria’s export earnings and the international demand for the country’s non-oil exports was unimpressive due to the development of synthetic alternatives, discriminative tariffs and new entrants in the global market (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2008). Consequently, most of the research on this topic hinged their framework on shocks from the oil sector (see Lukman and Olomola, 2016). In contemporary times, however, the contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s gross domestic product has been dwindling. As at 2019, the entire oil and gas industry contributed less than 10% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), 2019). There was the need to examine the external sector from a more comprehensive approach and framework. Therefore, this study evaluated the impact of shocks from Nigeria’s terms of trade and major foreign stock market index on macroeconomics in Nigeria. The methodology adopted for this study is the vector autoregressive technique, impulse response function and the error variance decomposition method. The findings show that the gross domestic product, price level and interest rate respond strongly in the short run (1-2 years), gradually fluctuates in the medium term (3-5 years) and become stable in the long run (6-10 years) due to shocks from the Dow Jones index and Nigeria’s terms of trade. Thus, intervention policies should focus on mitigating the impact of external sector shocks on macroeconomics in the short and medium terms when the impact is enormous.

Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis

Most of the previously examined studies that investigated the repercussion of the trade balance to exchange rate mutation relied on the assumption that appreciation and depreciation behave symmetrically, recently several works have been conducted using the asymmetric analysis. In this work, we exhibited a model employing the disaggregated data (bilateral) of trade balance with the USA. In our pursuit, we endeavored to disclose a phenomenon of the J curve, is this pattern present in our trade balance and exchange rate bearing? In this article, first, we checked the stationary of data set and discovered the stationary employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips Peron then applying the ARDL bounds test of cointegration apropos to find out the long run co integrated equations and last of all, tried to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, while we used the ECM (error correction model). The Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality in a VAR framework has been applied to detect the causal direction. In our model, we have blazoned the negative short-run rapport between the exchange rate and trade balance in the bilateral data, whereas we have remarked a discrepant bearing in the long run and we did receive the evidence of the appearance of j pattern in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. Dispensing the error correction model, we found domestic higher price level hinders the trade balance in the short run, did not find any evidence of foreign income stimulate the export. Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality reveals the unidirectional causal effect from exchange rate to trade balance of Bangladesh with the USA.