Domestic Political Instability Research Articles

Putting wage growth back on the table: Labour incorporation, political exchange, and wage-boosting policies in advanced peripheral economies

Growth model scholarship posits that wage-led growth has become increasingly difficult to achieve in advanced capitalist economies since the demise of Fordism. The constraints to the pursuit of policies compatible with wage-led growth strategies could be expected to be particularly stringent in peripheral economies, which often rely on price-sensitive exports, suppression of domestic demand, and labour disempowerment to compete in global markets. Yet, empirical experience shows that even advanced peripheral economies that adopted export-led growth strategies have successfully implemented policies intended to raise wages and expand social transfers. How to explain the emergence of such wage-boosting policies in the context of advanced peripheral, export-oriented economies? Drawing on the cases of Israel, Poland, and Spain since the Great Recession, we identify one common mechanism accounting for this unexpected outcome: the contingent political incorporation of organized labour through a cross-class political exchange in the coalition supporting a country’s growth strategy. We identify two scope conditions that enable the implementation of such policies in unlikely contexts. Domestic political instability, coupled with a contingent relaxation of prior economic constraints, leads governing parties of both left and right orientation to activate political exchange with unions, resulting in the implementation of diverse policies boosting household income. These policies also increase the role of domestic consumption as a key growth driver. Nonetheless, the depth and durability of such changes remain conditioned. The findings develop our understanding of the role of, and structural limits to, organized labour’s agency to promote wage growth in advanced peripheral economies.

SPAIN: AT THE START OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN – 2023

The article analyzes the domestic political and economic results of 2022 in Spain on the eve of the start of the campaign for elections to local and autonomous authorities, as well as to the national parliament of the country. The stabilization of the socio-economic situation became possible in the context of unprecedented financial assistance from the European Union, as well as thanks to the active policy of social interventionism of the center-left government of Spain. Despite the relative internal political stability against the background of negative processes in the leading EU countries, there is no guarantee of maintaining positive dynamics in the economy and social sphere due to the country’s excessive dependence on the economic conjuncture of the European Union. The situation is aggravated by the persistence of the general crisis of the Spanish political system, which has developed because of the compromises of the post-Franco democratic transit period. Against the background of a complex and contradictory situation with the alignment of domestic political forces, the leading Spanish parties have actually come to a consensus in the field of foreign policy based on unconditional loyalty to the common line of the West. This position of the country’s leading parties contradicts the ideas about the national interests of Spain, formed by a significant part of the electorate, both left and right wing. Taking into account the real domestic political and economic situation, as well as due to the weak influence of the foreign policy factor on the Spanish electorate, the author concludes that following the results of the 2023 election campaign in Spain, no political party in the country will be able to form a stable parliamentary majority. Thus, the situation of increasing domestic political instability seems to be real, which could open the way to national politics for new forces capable of reorienting the country’s foreign policy in accordance with the sentiments of a significant part of Spanish voters.

Carrie Lam, China-Hong Kong Dual System and the Struggle for Autonomy: A Diplomatic Analysis

Carrie Lam, the fourth Chief Executive was “Too Pro-China” to insist on the autonomy or enhance the struggle of Hong Kong for autonomy as proposed by the 1997 China’s promises to the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and the international community, that it would operate a “One Nation-Two Systems” for fifty years, ending in 2047. The last twenty-five years have been characterized by broken promises, failed covenants, unnecessary political meddling, judicial undercutting, press gagging and restrictions on freedom of speech leading to protests, advocacy, instability and political tension in the territory. The UK which should have intervened by reminding China of the July 1, 1997 pledges and accord and in absolute terms compel China to uphold the agreements, has been burdened by socio-political, economic and domestic challenges. China has taken advantage of UK’s domestic problems and political instability to violate the agreements over Hong Kong. This article argues that the people of Hong Kong were aware of/already sensed a consistent decline in China’s resolve to allow freedom of speech, democracy, freedom of the press, uninterrupted judicial process, fundamental human rights and the British educational system. This article concludes that while the UK kept her promise to transfer HK to China after Ninety-Nine years (1898-1997). China has refused to keep to the post transfer treaty. The covenant of fifty years has been broken almost immediately after it was signed. The UK on the other hand has broken the ethical/moral covenant to keep China on the covenant lane. Aside pockets of condemnations, no sanctions have been recommended or applied for failure or default by China. This paper is essentially a field research with reliance on primary and secondary sources of data in published outlets such as journals and online articles, newspaper interviews, and books. Its scope is limited to issue and content analysis of Hong Kong’s struggle to make China keep her promises. The study adopts the Kant’s Struggle for Autonomy as a theoretical guide. It captures the essence of the struggles in Hong Kong.

Climate change and Australia’s national security

ABSTRACT Climate change can undermine human, national and planetary security in various ways. While scholars harve explored the human security implications of climate change and climate security discourses in Australia, systematic scientific assessments of climate change and national security are scarce. I address this knowledge gap by analysing whether climate change impacts the national security of Australia before 2050, focussing particularly on climate-related threats within Australia and on countries of high strategic importance for Australia. The results indicate that climate change will very likely undermine Australia’s national security by disrupting critical infrastructure, by challenging the capacity of the defence force, by increasing the risk of domestic political instability in Australia’s immediate region, by reducing the capabilities of partner countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and by interrupting important supply chains. These impacts will matter most if several large-scale disasters co-occur or if Australia becomes involved in a major international conflict. By contrast, international wars, large-scale migration, and adverse impacts on key international partners are only minor climate-related risks.

Международно-политический статус государства—наблюдателя при ЕАЭС: проблемы и перспективы институционализации

The issue of the development of the observer state institution within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has been considered. An attempt has been made to assess the possibilities for the current observer states to acquire full membership and increase the number of observer states within the EAEU. Based on the analysis of regulatory acts and the application of comparative positional analysis, it has been established that the relatively recent institution only took on a more or less complete form by 2023. The main focus of the author’s work is on the international-political usefulness of the observer state status and the problems of its actual implementation. A comparison is made between the positioning of Moldova, Cuba, and Uzbekistan as observer states within the EAEU. Special attention is given to ranking the factors hindering and promoting the effective implementation of this specific international-political status. The conclusion is substantiated that among the hindering factors are the weakness of the national economy and domestic political instability, while among the promoting factors are the presence of political will from a consolidated ruling elite and social demand for the integration proposal. The author concludes that there are two fundamentally possible scenarios for the institutional development of the Union: a) deepening integration; b) expanding the integration space through the advancement of contractual policies. The list of potential future observer states within the EAEU is small: China, Vietnam, Iran, Serbia, and Singapore. As Armenian-Azerbaijani relations normalize and Uzbekistan progresses in integration, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan may potentially attain similar status.

ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT AS THE BASIS OF ENSURING THE ECONOMIC STABILITY OF ENTERPRISES

Crisis management in today's economic environment is the basis for competitive and efficient operations of any company. Liquidation of unviable companies is a prerequisite for the effective functioning of the market mechanism. Indeed, launching bankruptcy proceedings is much easier than trying to restore the life cycle of an enterprise. However, the practical experience of global companies in overcoming crisis phenomena indicates the formation of a different approach to the development of the crisis process. In order to study the need to apply anti-crisis management mechanisms, the article analyzes the financial and economic condition of Sandora LLC using the methods of Fox, Tafler, Altman and Springate. The calculated data confirm the fact that the specifics of domestic business, inflation rates, tax legislation, general economic and political instability make it impossible to adequately apply foreign bankruptcy forecasting models with reliable results. The peculiarity of anti-crisis management at domestic enterprises is the need to use modern risk management methods, taking into account the timeframe and the impact of external and internal factors. Currently in Ukraine, only large corporations or branches of international companies create special structural units, hire risk managers or high-level managers whose experience and qualifications allow them to manage the company in a crisis situation. Therefore, the use of crisis prevention measures helps to increase the company's competitiveness, and ongoing diagnostics of activities, environmental analysis and identification of possible risks minimize future costs. The most important features of crisis management include the individuality of strategic programs for forecasting and overcoming crisis phenomena at an enterprise, which is primarily related to the individuality of the stages of formation and development of each company, indicators of economic efficiency and mission, the specifics of the management system, as well as the personal qualities, knowledge and experience of managers. In other words, each company should develop an individual crisis management program taking into account the global experience of risk management and the specifics of strategic planning in the short and long term. To evaluate the effectiveness of the crisis management strategy, it is necessary to determine the performance indicators and goals of such management. At the same time, the criteria for determining the effectiveness of the implemented program are purely individual and depend on many factors: the scope of activity, profitability, level of profitability, form of ownership, sales markets, company size, number of employees, etc.

Populist Foreign Policy and Mobilization in Bolivia

The goal of this article is to explore the role of mobilization in the foreign policies of populists in power. To do so, we focus on the main features and changes of Bolivia’s foreign Policy under its populist president Evo Morales (2006-2019) with regard to its two most prominent conflictive bilateral relations, with the US and Chile. In both domains, Morales departed from the foreign policy of previous governments. By ending cooperation with the US, the Morales government sought to establish a sovereign counternarcotics policy in line with its core constituency’s demands of legalizing coca crops. On the key issue of relations with Chile seeking to negotiate a sovereign access to the Pacific Ocean, the Morales government exhibited more continuity initially. However, by referring the stalemated conflict to the International Court of Justice, Morales eventually changed his country’s approach to finding a resolution. Tracing Morales’ discourse over time reveals an intensification of populist as well as hostile rhetoric in periods of domestic political instability. Thus, our findings support the theoretical expectation of a particularly close link between domestic politics and foreign policy under populists in power. Thereby, populism may lead to a more conflictive foreign policy in some cases. However, neither does populist mobilization over foreign policy matters necessarily drive foreign policy change, nor does it preclude genuine bilateral dialogue.

Peace Strategies and Approaches for Resolving the Conflict of Terrorism in Indonesia

The end of the Cold War marked the shift of world threats from traditional military threats to asymmetric non-traditional threats of terrorism. Terrorist groups emerge with various backgrounds. Domestic political instability in the form of conflict and separatism to revenge motivation or being affected by the threat of terrorism in other countries. The purpose of this research is to analyze the strategy and approach of peace to resolve the terrorism conflict. The method used in this research is literature review. The data sources in this study were taken from the Scopus data base and several other data bases such as Connected papers, Openknowledge maps and Google Scolar to support this research, then some data were taken from the news. The findings in this study emphasize that apart from the hard approach and also the soft approach as an approach in resolving the conflict of terrorism, there are other approaches that can be used as an alternative approach, namely the conflict triangle where this approach has not been widely adopted in Indonesia.

Peace strategies and approaches for resolving the conflict of terrorism in Indonesia

The end of the Cold War marked the shift of world threats from traditional military threats to asymmetric non-traditional threats of terrorism. Terrorist groups emerge with various backgrounds. Domestic political instability in the form of conflict and separatism to revenge motivation or being affected by the threat of terrorism in other countries. This research aims to analyze the strategy and approach of peace to resolve the terrorism conflict. The method used in this research is a literature review. The data sources in this study were taken from the Scopus database and several other databases such as Connected papers, Openknowledge maps, and Google Scholar to support this research. Then some data were taken from the news. The findings in this study emphasize that apart from the complex approach and the soft approach as an approach in resolving the conflict of terrorism, other approaches can be used as an alternative approach, namely the conflict triangle, where this approach has not been widely adopted in Indonesia.

The System of US Presidential Election: Particularities, Problems of Functioning and Prospects for Transformation.

The article examines the level of democracy of the US presidential electoral system and the prospects for its transformation. In order to do this examination, considerable attention is paying on the main procedural aspects of the US presidential election, in particular, on the features of the organization of primary elections, popular voting and the expression of will of the Electoral College. Using general scientific, logical and empirical research methods, the weaknesses and strengths of the US presidential electoral system are analyzed. For instance, the disproportion of the representation of American states in the Electoral College, as well as the disproportion between the number of votes and the number of electors as a factor of two-level electoral distortions are considered. The authors argue that the issue is relevant due to the emergence of political instability in the United States, which is related to the outcome of the 2020 presidential election and its non-recognition by part of American society and the defeated candidate, which provoked domestic social and political instability and negatively affected the international image of the USA. The study concluded that the electoral system used during the US presidential election, despite some positive aspects, can be partially interpreted as undemocratic, with the existing disproportion of representation, and therefore needs to be reformed and has enough prospects and ways for it. Ways to minimize shortcomings and prospects for the transformation of the US presidential electoral system are identified. The authors emphasize that the main problem is the choice of the most rational option for reforming the US presidential electoral system, which will not lead to an even greater socio-political crisis in the United States.

Michael Tierney and the Intellectual Origins of Blueshirtism, 1920–1938

Abstract The Blueshirts have been one of the most contested and extensively researched subjects in twentieth-century Irish historiography. Debate has focused principally on the extent to which the movement should be understood as a fascist organisation, or as a spontaneous counter-reaction to the domestic political instability that followed Fianna Fáil’s victory in the 1932 general election. However, strikingly little attention has been devoted to tracing the intellectual origins of Blueshirtism in Irish nationalist and republican thought. This article rejects the dominant historiographical representation of the Blueshirts as an aberration in Irish political history and suggests that the movement can only be understood properly in continuity with the political thought of the pre-Civil War period. It is argued, additionally, that the more complex and differentiated ‘hybrid’ theories of ‘fascistization’ developed by scholars like David D. Roberts, António Costa Pinto and Aristotle Kallis provide a useful comparative framework for understanding how nationalist intellectuals such as Michael Tierney, once steadfast in their commitment to the norms of parliamentary democracy, came to endorse a corporatist politics after being voted out of office.

The impact of political instability upon the increase of terrorism in the Middle East

The key goal of the article is to examine whether the domestic political instability associated with the “Arab Spring” caused the subsequent surge of global terrorism, which reached its peak in 2014. The author reviews six different types of domestic political instability: antigovernment demonstrations, national strikes, government crises, government repression, disturbances, and revolutions. Using the regression models, the author clarifies the impact of such factors as the level of education, Internet access, economic development, democratization indexes, and the degree of religious and ethnic fragmentariness. Analysis is conducted on the results of the models separately for different types of political regimes, forms of domestic political instability, and global regions. The results of construction and analysis a number of negative binomial regression models testify to the support of “escalation effect”, which implies that heightened intensity of domestic political instability leads to the surge of terrorist attacks. More severe forms of domestic political instability, namely repression and disturbances, generate a higher level of terrorism; however, revolution, as the most severe form of domestic political instability does not produce such effect. The formulated conclusions are also substantiated by the fact that certain forms of political instability have a different impact upon terrorism and its peculiarities, depending on the geographical region and the type of political regime.

Uneven and combined development: convergence realism in communist regalia?

Leon Trotsky’s notion of ‘uneven and combined development’ (UCD) has been gaining traction as an explanatory theory of international relations over the past decade, notably in work by Justin Rosenberg and Alexander Anievas. The idea that the uneven sequencing of economic development between countries affects both their relative power relationships and domestic political stability, in particular, carries prima-facie intuitive plausibility. The potential consequences for international stability of such relative power shifts and domestic upheavals suggest, furthermore, that there may be significant explanatory payoffs from this line of investigation. At the same time, however, the UCD intuition raises other questions about causal foundations and theoretical affiliations. What accounts for the sequencing of uneven development, for example? And how exactly do both relative power shifts and domestic political instability elevate war risks? This paper will address these lacunae, by demonstrating that – at the level of its underlying micro-foundations – UCD can be understood as a compound of catch-up convergence growth theory and security-dilemma realism. Such a recognition paves the way, in turn, for a fruitful application of UCD to contemporary questions in international politics.

Italy: an aspiring Mediterranean middle power wavering between bilateralism and multilateralism

Italy managed to be an important actor in European affairs, its status as major power was several times called into question. Italy’s domestic political instability, the frequent government crises, severe economic and financial problems hinder the country’s goal to become a recognized middle power, especially in the Mediterranean region. Bilateral and multilateral tools are used alternately by government coalitions to carry out foreign policy which has been dominated by migration. Due to the afore-mentioned internal problems security and defence policy is not capable of supporting foreign policy to the necessary extent.

Collective Action, Foreign Fighting, and the Global Struggle for the Islamic State

ABSTRACT This project examines the global “foreign fighter” phenomenon, in which individuals fight in a foreign conflict. We explore the question – “Why do ordinary people travel abroad to fight and potentially die for a foreign cause?” – by analyzing a dataset of 27,223 foreign fighters from 75 countries who fought for the Islamic State. The statistical results demonstrate that one must draw on three different bodies of collective action theory to provide a robust explanation. The Islamic State’s foreign fighters come from countries that are predominantly Muslim (social network theory), that have greater levels of educational attainment (grievance theory), and that are experiencing elevated levels of domestic political instability (political opportunity theory). These findings have theoretical implications for understanding the international dimension of collection action, most notably regarding international democracy promotion. Whereas a country’s degree of democracy or authoritarianism does not affect the numbers of foreign fighters from that country, the democratization process and democratic transition foster domestic political instability that in turn favors higher numbers of foreign fighters.

State regulation of bankruptcy relations in the national economy

Introduction The deepening crisis in numerous business entities of various sizes is due to macroeconomic and domestic political instability, complicated by the consumer credit crisis, as well as tax and administrative pressure. Therefore, the acute problem of bankruptcy of business entities of different sizes and the need to regulate this issue at the state level. Unprofitable business entities of various sizes cause negative consequences for the domestic economy.
 Aim and tasks. The purpose of the work is to study state regulation of relations in the field of bankruptcy in the economy of Ukraine.
 Results. The factors, internal and external, preceding the bankruptcy of economic entities. Thus, the external preconditions of bankruptcy are international, economic, political, demographic and others. Internal prerequisites include economic, technical, technological, social and others. The characteristic and gradation criteria of business entities in accordance with legislative acts of Ukraine are presented. It was revealed that the proportion of sales of micro-enterprises is unequal to their share in the total number of enterprises, indicating their negligible contribution to the development of the national economy. According to the results of empirical studies, it was found that during the analyzed period the share of unprofitable enterprises of different sizes is at least a 25%. Such a large number entails not only low financial stability, insolvency and efficiency of business entities themselves, but also inhibits the process of economic growth of the whole country. The application of the method of multivariate discriminant analysis will allow us to draw a conclusion about the financial condition with assigning it a class in accordance with the values of the integral indicator and taking into account the probability of non-fulfillment of obligations, that is, to identify the presence of an unprofitable enterprise and the likelihood of bankruptcy.
 Conclusions. So, an analysis of the criteria for graduation of business entities made it possible to establish the difference between the administrative and accounting interpretation of the criteria for the attitude of enterprises to various sizes. The dynamics of structural statistics indicators of domestic business entities were monitored, suggesting that individual entrepreneurs make an insignificant contribution to the development of the national economy. Since a quarter of business entities still remain unprofitable, it is necessary to take preventive measures to prevent the loss of solvency by enterprises, one of which is to identify the existence of an unprofitable enterprise and the likelihood of bankruptcy.

A ‘Tale of two Jihadis’? Improperly conflating terrorists and foreign fighters in the Arab spring

ABSTRACTThis article draws on a unique dataset of state-level data for 196 countries to establish answers to three research questions. We begin by exploring whether a global spike in terrorist acts and the numbers of foreign fighters leaving to fight for ISIS in Syria and Iraq are linked during the first five years of the Arab Spring (2011–15). We also assess whether the spike in terrorist attacks and foreign fighters for ISIS can be labeled a phenomenon of the Middle East and North Africa and Islam more generally. In other words, are we witnessing a ‘Tale of Two Jihadis’? The answer to both questions is ‘no.’ Third, we seek to establish whether terrorist acts and foreign fighters are driven by the same explanatory factors, as would be assumed by those who conflate the two phenomena. A series of negative binomial regressions demonstrates that while a country’s level of domestic political instability leads to increases in both foreign fighters and terrorist attacks, the explanatory commonalities end there. Whereas foreign fighters to ISIS hail from Muslim majority countries with higher levels of education and internet access, terrorist attacks occur in countries with lower levels of unemployment and higher levels of ethnic fractionalization.

Does Domestic Political Instability Foster Terrorism? Global Evidence from the Arab Spring Era (2011–14)

This article explores the intellectual puzzle of whether the domestic political instability associated with the Arab Spring is responsible for a surge in global terrorism that peaked in 2014. A series of negative binomial regressions demonstrate strong support for an “escalation effect”: more severe forms of domestic political instability, most notably government purges and riots, breed greater levels of terrorism, although the most severe form of domestic political instability—revolution—does not. We also find that specific types of domestic political instability affect terrorism levels differently depending on geographical region and regime type (i.e., democracy versus dictatorship).

Indonesian Foreign Policy Towards Egypt Post-Husni Mubarak Administration

The article explains the change and continuity of Indonesian Foreign Policy toward Egypt post Husni Mubarak Administration. This issue is explored because after the administration of Husni Mubarak, Egypt experienced domestic political instability in the form of a government regime change in a short time, namely the election of Mursi as president through elections in 2011, the overthrow of Mursi, and the election of Al Sisi as new president in 2013 through elections. This article concludes that on facing some changes in Egypt post-Husni Mubarak, Indonesia did ‘the change and continuity’ in her foreign policy. The ‘change’ was done because of administration of Presiden Yudhoyono wanted to ensure the implementation of Indonesia's national interests, namely, the security of Indonesian citizens in Egypt, education programs, and the sustainability of Indonesia-Egypt trade relations. This change was motivated by bureaucratic advocacy and restructuring domestic agent on decision making of Indonesian government. The ‘continuity’ takes place in terms of Indonesia’s doctrine of foreign policy, namely ‘free and active policy’. 'Free policy’ was carried out impartially in the Egyptian conflict and ‘active policy’ was implemented by maintaining security, education, and trade cooperation with Egypt.

A Political Economy of Trans-Border Migration Crises and Human Trafficking in Africa

Encouraged by porous border boundaries in Africa, trafficking in persons and objects is a demand-driven global venture that has market potential for: commercial sex, cheap labour, terrorism, and drug-related crimes. Most African States, especially Nigeria, have been reputed as hardliners in encouraging these illicit trends. Chief among the motivating factors include: domestic insecurity, political instability, economic recession, and institutional failure, etc. Amongst other instigating factors however, this paper takes a cursory look at the relationship between the twin crime of trans-border migration crises and human trafficking in Nigeria, and the attendant political economic implications on the Nigerian polity. Data relied on are largely gotten from secondary sources. The paper employs the neoclassical political economic theory of migration. Findings from conceptual and theoretical reviews of literatures show that the incentive for human trafficking and migration-related offences is not only profit driven but also a fall-out from institutional failure. The paper recommends a taut border security, which can disallow border related crimes like drug and human trafficking. The paper also sues for people-oriented leadership that will eschew illicit crimes such as the above.