Domestic Economic Developments Research Articles

The contribution of trade to production-Based carbon dioxide emissions

International trade and emission offshoring can reduce a country’s domestic carbon dioxide emissions, helping it to reach emission reduction targets set under the prevailing territorial climate policy frameworks. We ask what is the net contribution of trade to national production-based emissions. Existing metrics (consumption-based emissions and the technology-adjusted balance of emissions embodied in trade) do not answer this question. Based on global multi-regional input-output tables and the domestic technology assumption, we calculate net emission onshoring as the difference between the emissions embodied in gross exports (onshoring) and the emissions avoided by gross imports (offshoring) for 43 countries between 2000–2014. We find that the USA offshores emissions and China onshores emissions; the aggregate trade balance explains this result while the trade composition plays a negligible role in either country. In general there is no cross-country relationship between net offshoring and per-capita income, and neither one between trade specialization in emission-intensive products and per-capita income. The developed countries’ absolute decoupling of economic growth and production-based emissions since 2000 is “genuine” in the sense that it reflects domestic economic developments and is not owed to emission offshoring.

Estimating the money demand function for Saudi Arabia using divisia monetary aggregate

ABSTRACT This paper constructs the broader Divisia monetary aggregate (D2) for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the period from 1999 to 2018. Unlike the traditional money supply aggregate (M2), movements of the Divisia monetary aggregate seems to reflect the domestic economic developments and hence can be very useful when setting macroeconomic policies in the Kingdom. In addition, the paper applies the Keynesian Money Demand Theory to estimate the demand for money using the Divisia monetary aggregate. The findings confirm the stability of the money demand function for Saudi Arabia.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECONOMIC ZONE OF NORTH KAZAKHSTAN

Economic zoning is a grouping of the territorial division of labor into general, interconnected economic zones. Economic region - formed because of the territorial division of labor, specialization and integrated development of the economy of each other part of the country. Economic zoning played an important role in planning the economy of individual parts of the country and the prospects for their development. In Kazakhstan, the territorial division of labor, transport, the industry of specialization of the productive forces in the country, parts of the country that are effective in developing domestic economic and geographical developments and influenced the growth of the country's economic regions. The well-known scientist N.N. Baransky divided territories of Kazakhstan into five economic zones depending on economic geographic characteristics: Central Kazakhstan, Eastern Kazakhstan, Western Kazakhstan, Northern Kazakhstan, Southern Kazakhstan. The economic zone of North-Kazakhstan is in a favorable economic and geographical position. In the north it borders on the Urals and Western Siberia. On the territory of the district pass the railway Big Siberia, Middle Siberia, Southern Siberia and Trans-Kazakhstan. These roads connect North Kazakhstan with Central Kazakhstan and the Urals, Kuzbass, and will allow them to travel to the regions of Europe, Asia and Southern Kazakhstan. Through the Irtysh River, they can contact the non-ferrous metallurgy of Altai and the Russian oil and gas-bearing field in Western Siberia. North Kazakhstan is the main grain, meat, and dairy cattle breeding complex in the country. Along with the agro-industrial complex in North Kazakhstan, iron ore, bauxite, coal, asbestos, gold, etc., and the metallurgical industry associated with the melting of aluminum, ferroalloy, mining and ore enrichment are developed. The transition to a real market economy, the resettlement of the capital, the tourist and recreational zone of the concentration of the North Kazakhstan regions, the economic, recreational, industrial and agricultural development of the tourism industry with the development of efficient use of resources to improve the socio-economic status of the population, to identify opportunities for improving the economy of the region today.

Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads

We study the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads of five Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We find that global and/or European Monetary Union (EMU)-wide factors are the main drivers of changes in the sovereign CDS spreads in our sample. However, the impacts of those factors change with market uncertainty. There is a relatively tranquil regime where market uncertainty is low and a relatively turbulent regime where market uncertainty is high. The transition from the tranquil regime to the turbulent regime is driven by changes in the global jump risk, which suggests that contagion from the global financial market significantly affected the pricing of sovereign credit risk in our sample. Domestic economic and financial indicators have little impact on the pricing of sovereign credit risk in all sample countries except Italy. But changes in the sovereign credit risk have significant impacts on domestic economic and financial indicators. Neglecting the financial contagion and feedback effects from sovereign credit risk to domestic economic and financial developments leads to spurious results regarding the determinants of sovereign CDS spreads.

Downside business confidence spillovers in Europe: evidence from causality-in-risk tests

This paper employs an extreme risk spillovers test to investigate the bilateral business confidence spillovers between Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Germany. After controlling for domestic economic developments in each country and common international factors, downside risk spillovers are detected as a causal feedback between Spain and Portugal and unilaterally from Spain to Italy. Extremely low business sentiments in France, Germany, and Greece are mostly due to the common adverse economic environment and to each country’s own domestic economic developments.

Dating business cycle turning points

This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Greek business cycle from early 1970 to late 2012, against the backdrop of the late 2000s global recession and the most recent domestic economic developments, which once again stress the significance of dating business cycle turning points. The derivation of the exact dates of switches between expansions and recessions allows the identification of the point in time at which the Greek economy entered the recent recessionary business cycle regime in the late 2000s and the verification of the assertion that, up to the end of 2012, it had not yet exited the recession. We rely on both non-parametric and parametric procedures in order to check the coherence among the obtained turning points and evaluate the establishment of a reference chronology. We use quarterly GDP data and selected monthly indicators covering important sectors and activities in the Greek economy. On the basis of the obtained exact turning point dates and the indications provided by several business cycle and phases characteristics, we are able to propose a reference chronology for Greece and outline stylised facts of the Greek business cycle for a time period of over 40 years. Our findings clearly suggest that the Greek economy entered a recessionary business cycle regime in 2008 which was continued throughout 2012.

To Build A “Harmonious World”: China’s Soft Power Wielding in the Global South

This study attempts to answer a new but important question in China’s foreign policy— how Beijing has wielded its soft power to construct its ideal of international order in the age of China’s rise. Before empirical analyses, this study tries to set up a conceptual framework on the relations between the idea of “harmonious world” and China’s soft power wielding in its rising process. Within this framework, this study examines a rising China’s foreign policies towards three targeted regions in the global south—Africa, East Asia, and Latin America. On the one hand, due to Beijing’s carefully-designed and soft power-based foreign policies, the global south has become an increasingly harmonious environment for Beijing to cultivate a favorable national image, exert its political influence on regional affairs, benefit its own domestic economic developments, etc. On the other hand, some problems such as the so-called “China’s New Colonialism” and the increased vigilance from the other powers have already began to challenge Beijing’s harmony in those regions.

What Determines Monetary Policy in the Franc Zone? Estimating a Reaction Function for the BCEAO

This paper examines to what extent the central bank for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (BCEAO) has used interest rate policy in response to domestic economic developments. We show that while in the long run the BCEAO matches changes in French (Eurozone) interest rates one for one, in the short run it retains freedom to react to domestic economic variables, such as inflation, the output gap, its foreign exchange position and government borrowing.

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union

This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal‐components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkey's economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkey's increasing economic integration into the EU.

A REVIEW OF INDIGENOUS BANKS IN HONG KONG: IMPLICATIONS FOR SMALL FIRMS MANAGING STRATEGIC CHANGE

This paper reviews the strategic responses of successful local Chinese banks (LCBs) in the changeable Hong Kong banking sector over the past decades. Given the mixed outlook of the industry resulting from the handover of sovereignty, financial internationalization, and regional and domestic economic developments, this paper also discusses the benefits of using strategic alliance as a means for LCBs to meet current and future challenges. Based on case reviews, the paper demonstrates the values of strategic management concepts for small banks to cope with an externally oriented and politically uncertain operating environment.

International interest rates linkages: Evidence from OECD countries

Real interest rates are an important channel for the transmission of international financial impulses. Real interest rates are influenced by domestic economic developments as well as the movements of real rates in dominant economies. With a greater integration of global financial markets the effect of the latter has become more important. The empirical results of this study indicate that real interest rates among five OECD countries are cointegrated. Furthermore, the empirical results of the study show a significant and positive response of rates in smaller economies to a shock of real rates in the dominant economies. However, dominant economies' real rates are not significantly responsive to a shock of rates in smaller economies.

South Africa's balance of payments in the 1980s

The balance of payments has always been a significant determinant of economic activity and economic policy in South Africa. The 1980s were no exception. Like most other developing countries, South Africa's economic fortunes during this decade were closely linked to a number of changes in the international economy. Moreover, various political and domestic economic developments impacted on the country's balance of payments and on the course of economic activity and economic policy in South Africa.

Factors influencing the market for tires and tire fibers

AbstractNot only technology, but domestic and international economic considerations, social developments, consumer lifestyles, and political pressures are the determinants of tomorrow's tire market. Tires for global markets are subject to international competition and world tire standards. Over‐the‐road highway tires—auto and truck—need improved technology to meet government safety regulations at affordable user costs. Grading and labeling implies substantial pressure on constructions and fibers. Vehicle design changes to meet demands of changing lifestyles bring other implications for tire and fiber markets. Cost per ton of freight hauled is becoming increasingly important. Earthmover tires of the future will be required to haul greater loads at higher speeds, meaning much larger vehicles, bigger tires, and higher ton miles per hour of payload.

IV. Big-Business Pressure Groups and Bismarck's Turn to Protectionism, 1873–79

Although the first decade of the German Empire has long been a central topic of historical research, the question with which this essay is concerned—Bismarck's relationship to the pressure groups at this time—cannot be answered satisfactorily on the basis of the material known hitherto. This is due to the fact that until very recently historians have concentrated on the diplomatic-political occurrences. Bismarck's eastern policy, the Livadia affair, the ‘war-in-sight crisis’, the Berlin Congress, and the change from the Three Emperors' Alliance to the ‘Eternal’ Treaty with the Danube monarchy—these are the events always used to demonstrate Bismarck's ‘genius’ in the field of foreign policy. On the problem of the ‘Kulturkampf’ much less effort has been expended. Here Bismarck's outstanding political skill was not as apparent as it was in his judgement of international relations. Moreover, this question was bound up from the very beginning with a strong ideological bias which only slightly weakened after World War II for the first time. Even less attention has been paid to the problems of domestic and social policy and economic developments have been almost totally neglected. It is true that these items have recently obtained new historical relevance from the new socio-political point of view, but up to the present day they have not been clarified. The chief general contributions of this kind have been published by non-German historians (e.g. Rosenberg, Lambi, and Pflanze) in the United States or in Canada. These studies, however, give inadequate answers to specific questions, as do the detailed essays of Karl-Erich Born and Wolfgang Zorn with their systematizing way of reflexion. They do not deal with our formulation of the question: the relationship between economic development and political events in a comparatively short period. Nevertheless, the essays of Born and Zorn will serve as a starting-point for our own investigation. Born in particular realizes the urgent need for more detailed research in the social and economic sphere, and pleads for a ‘supplementary’ approach (Ergänzungsgeschichte). He states thatthe history of the aristocracy during the industrial age has to be completed by studies dealing with the history of the trade unions; by dissertations on the history of industrial branches, commercial centres, and companies; and last but not least by works on the disintegration of the old bourgeoisie. Then we shall be able to extend the political history of the German Empire, which is largely clarified, to a comprehensive view of a German historical epoch by adding the social and economic history of the late nineteeth century.