Domestic Debt Market Research Articles

Local Currency Bond Markets in Africa: Resilience and Subordination

ABSTRACTThis article examines the development and implications of local currency bond markets (LCBMs) in African countries in the context of international financial subordination (IFS). Despite the promotion of LCBMs as a solution to debt vulnerability, there is a dearth of research that offers a systematic empirical examination of their actual benefits along with conceptual explanations as to when and why such benefits may or may not materialize. This is especially true for countries at the bottom of the global economic hierarchy. To explore how the subordination in global production and financial systems shapes LCBM development, the article offers an empirical analysis of selected African countries that combines interviews with policy makers, officials and experts with statistical data. The findings suggest that while LCBMs offer some benefits, such as mitigating risks associated with foreign currency debt, their potential is limited by the structural processes created by IFS, such as their dependence on the global financial cycle, the relatively higher costs of this debt and the sustained constraint on macroeconomic policy making. However, there are also domestic factors which shape how these structural constraints are mediated in the context of LCBM development — in particular, historically developed financial structures of developing countries, the political economy of the state and the structure of production. This study thus contributes to the debate about the developmental benefits of domestic debt market development and the emerging research agenda on IFS.

The role of the primary dealers in the government securities market

Governments need money for good functioning. Following the COVID – 19 pandemic and the energy crisis, finding sources to cover the budget deficits has become a real challenge. One of the ways of accumulating funds is by issuing government securities through auctions. Thus, countries are continuously concerned about developing the domestic debt market to decrease the dependence on external creditors. The primary dealer system is the most widespread form of cooperation between the issuer and investors. The main goal of the research is to show the influence of the primary dealer system on the development of the government securities market. In order to meet the requirements of the debt manager’s office they have to fulfil certain obligations. Despite the quantitative obligations of the primary dealers, the analysis focuses also on their qualitative aspects. Also, the paper presents a practical experience for selected countries regarding the evaluation of the activity of the primary dealers. The results of this research show a dependence between the development of the domestic government securities market and the methodology for evaluating the activity of the primary dealers.

Пандемия COVID-19 как фактор наращивания государственного долга. Опыт Казахстана в контексте мировой ситуации

One of the main effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant aggravation of the debt burden in most countries of the world, due to increased costs to support the economies. In Kazakhstan, similar problems also caused a significant increase in the volume of public debt and expenses for its servicing, while due to the specifics of the country’s economic model, the channels of influence of the pandemic on the debt sector were more numerous because of the impact of external shocks. The growth of government debt and the debt servicing cost during the pandemic years was affected by such factors as the growth of budget’s expenditures to support the economy; a drop in revenues due to lower oil prices; the devaluation of the tenge and growth of the cost of servicing external debt; increase of interest rates in the domestic debt market. A comparison of the parameters of public debt increase and loss of economic growth based on the ratio of these two indicators is proposed as a generalized indicator of the effectiveness of debt buildup during the pandemic. This approach showed that the debt increase in Kazakhstan was quite effective. Nevertheless, the effects of the fight against the pandemic had a serious negative impact on Kazakhstan’s public finance system, and in the debt sphere the main problem now is the escalation of debt servicing costs, which will be a significant burden on the budget process, at least for the next few years.

Transparent Budget in the System of Public Administration

One of the main effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant aggravation of the debt burden in most countries of the world, due to increased costs to support the economies. In Kazakhstan, similar problems also caused a significant increase in the volume of public debt and expenses for its servicing, while due to the specifics of the country’s economic model, the channels of influence of the pandemic on the debt sector were more numerous because of the impact of external shocks. The growth of government debt and the debt servicing cost during the pandemic years was affected by such factors as the growth of budget’s expenditures to support the economy; a drop in revenues due to lower oil prices; the devaluation of the tenge and growth of the cost of servicing external debt; increase of interest rates in the domestic debt market. A comparison of the parameters of public debt increase and loss of economic growth based on the ratio of these two indicators is proposed as a generalized indicator of the effectiveness of debt buildup during the pandemic. This approach showed that the debt increase in Kazakhstan was quite effective. Nevertheless, the effects of the fight against the pandemic had a serious negative impact on Kazakhstan’s public finance system, and in the debt sphere the main problem now is the escalation of debt servicing costs, which will be a significant burden on the budget process, at least for the next few years.

Global equity offerings and access to domestic loan market: U.S. evidence

This study examines whether and to what extend global equity offerings at the IPO stage may affect issuing firms' ability to borrow in the domestic debt market. Tracking bank loans taken by U.S. IPO firms in the domestic syndicated loan market, we observe that global equity offering firms experience more favorable loan price than that offered to their domestic counterparts. This finding holds for a set of robustness tests of endogeneity issues. We also find that, compared with their domestic counterparts, global equity offering firms are less likely to have financial distress, engage more in international diversification, and are more likely to wait a longer time to apply for syndicated loans.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE AND ITS DETERMINANTS OF SELECTED MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES

The IMF’s external sector report 2018 indicate that global current account balances are 40-50% are now excessive rather than appropriate. The fact that persistent excess imbalances are pose risk to global economy stability and putting a pressure on international trade relations. Therefore, individual economies around the globe are trying harder to fit into the global challenges which associated with risks and require policies adjustment to reduce the excess imbalances. The objective of this study is to analyse the role of debt management indicator towards the current account balance. Panel data of 13 countries is used from 1990 to 2015 for estimation which involved the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator to estimate the long run relationships between debt management and current account balance. The study found evidence of long run relationships between GDP per capita growth, fiscal balance, net foreign asset, debt management, trade openness and current account balance. The variable of debt management indicator has a weak link to current account balance or debt sustainability. This study suggests several policies implications to policy makers. To strengthen the external sector position, the development of domestic debt market through fiscal and monetary policy is vital as a pragmatic step to reduce dependency on external borrowing. In addition, debt management strategies play a significant role even though relatively small in strengthening current account balance position.

What Determines Bond Market Development? New Theoretical Insights

Purpose- To diversify financing portfolio and reduce the reliance on the banking system, developing economies have realized the importance of bond market development. Bond markets facilitate economies to be more resilient towards the events of financial crises. Therefore, the share of the bond market in the financial system of the Asian economies has remarkably increased in the last decade. However, the academic literature on the bond market is very limited as compared to bank and equity markets. This was mainly because of the unavailability of vast data due to the absence of secondary markets for bonds in most of the economies. To fill this gap, this conceptual study postulates the theoretical relationships of bond market with various macroeconomic and financial factors. The study also assumes some new dimensions for bond financing and opens discussion for scholarly literature and empirical justifications. 
 Design/Methodology- Content analysis approach is used to review relevant literature for the possible associations of the bond market with macroeconomic and financial factors. 
 Practical Implications- The theoretical relationships discussed in the paper need empirical testing in future research to conclude policy implications. If the relationship between foreign capital and bond securities is established with empirical justification, we draw the policy that concerned authorities need to create a suitable environment for the attraction of foreign capital to provide support to the development of domestic debt market.

How Financial Freedom and Integration Change Public Debt Impact on Financial Development in the Asia‐Pacific: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

AbstractThis study investigates the non‐linear effect of fiscal policy (measured by total domestic public sector debt) on the level of financial development, using a balanced panel of 22 economies in the Asia‐Pacific region. Governments in less developed financial institutional infrastructure (for instance, emerging markets) tend to abuse their power by intervening in the domestic debt market. This study shows that better financial institutional infrastructure helps to discipline governments. The results suggest a negative effect of domestic public sector debt on financial development, but only at low level of financial freedom and integration. Higher financial freedom and financial integration would reduce the crowding‐out effect of domestic public sector debt.

Institutional arrangements and debt financing

I find that institutional arrangements have an impact on the real economy by affecting firms’ choice between private and public debt and the subsequent financing costs. Using new debt issued by firms in 26 non-US countries, I find, after controlling for firm characteristics predicted by debt agency and information asymmetry theories, that the level of financial market development, the efficiency of bankruptcy procedure, the integrity and enforceability of laws, and the transparency of financial information have significant impacts not only on firms’ debt choice and yield to maturity in domestic debt market, but also their issuance choice in the international debt market.

The influence of tax regulation liberalisation on the development of the domestic debt market

The end of every development cycle (whether local-, region- or worldwide) is often accompanied by crises, determining the ways of further development and revealing its essence. During a long period that followed 1998, Russia that previously had not recognised the necessity to develop the domestic market of government securities finally faced the need to re-consider its importance and possibilities for the budget against the background of the unfolding 2008 crisis. Having been integrated in the global markets, Russia’s domestic market is still highly dependent on the outside environment: budget crisis in the southern countries of the European Zone, growing expectations as to the policy of the US Federal Reserve led to growing rates, decreasing market liquidity and worsening the conditions of attracting investments in the budget. Nowadays Russia has once more faced the only opportunity to use the internal market resources; however, the suspension of reforms in 2013 did not let the Ministry of Finance cover the expenses on debt servicing in 2014, thus, posing serious risks to implementation of the lending programme in 2015 etc.

Domestic Debt Market in India Its Resilience in Funding Infrastructure

As India is projected to be the world’s most populous country by 2025, the growing needs of the economy, with expanding population, in the recent years have placed intense stress on physical infrastructure. In order to meet the deficit in the provision of infrastructure, mid-term appraisal of the twelfth plan suggests that to attain 9 percent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, infrastructure investment should be on average almost 10 percent of GDP during the Twelfth Plan which translates into INR 65795 billion (about One trillion dollar). Though there has been a progressive involvement of the private sector in infrastructure investments, the government has to play a proactive role in developing a well-structured platform for raising the required investments in Indian infrastructure. Given the huge demand of US$ 1 trillion for infrastructure investments during the 12th plan period, there is a greater emphasis on creating a domestic debt market with special focus on bond market as an alternate source of funding for bank finance, which is faced with myriad problems of stress assets, asset restructuring, etc.

Institutions and Debt Financing

We find that institutional arrangements have an impact on the real economy by affecting firms’ choice between private and public debt and the subsequent financing costs. Using new debt issued by firms in 26 non-US countries, we find, after controlling for firm characteristics predicted by debt agency and information asymmetry theories, that the level of financial market development, the efficiency of bankruptcy procedure, the integrity and enforceability of laws, and the transparency of financial information have significant impacts not only on firms’ debt choice and yield to maturity in domestic debt market, but also their issuance choice in the international debt market.

What is the Relation between Systemic Risk Exposure and Sovereign Debt?

Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country’s financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country’s financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation’s sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country’s government finances are transmitted to that country’s financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.

The Risks of Russia's Debt Policy against the Background of the Global Debt Crisis

The paper discusses the debt component of the current global crisis, which becomes stronger in 2011—2012. The Russian economy is analyzed in terms of its debt stability: a thorough analysis shows that it is not quite adequate. This paper presents the main problems that could be exacerbated by the global debt crisis (strong dependence of the budget on the volatility of oil prices, deterioration of conditions for external borrowing and overheat of the domestic debt market, too high public pension liabilities, substantial corporate debt and high level of state paternalism in regard to big business). Some measures to address Russian debt policy problems are proposed.

Sovereign Risk Management in Recession: The Cases of Sweden and China

Sovereign risk became a common issue after 2007 financial crisis happened. However, the crisis was only an incentive. Some high sovereign risk countries had lacked reliable sovereign risk management framework and lend overmuch debt before the crisis came. High cost of crisis and succeeding recession gave the world a critical strike. Using the cases of Sweden and China, I argue that fiscal expenditure constraints, debt control, and surplus accumulation in common time are most important measures to manage sovereign risk. A stable and efficient sovereign risk management regime framework is beneficial. A medium-term fiscal stability target should be included. Early intention, temporary stimulus policy and other budget measures could decrease cost of crisis and recession. A development domestic debt market could help relief refinancing pressure of government when some external shock happened. Perfect framework of statistics, specific accounting standard, high transparency will help the government, creditors, and investors reach some debt restructure agreement.

The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets

This paper develops a new public domestic debt database covering 93 low-income countries and emerging markets over 1975–2004 to estimate the growth impact of domestic debt. Moderate levels of noninflationary domestic debt, as a share of GDP and bank deposits, are found to exert a positive overall impact on economic growth. Granger-causality regressions suggest support for a variety of channels: improved monetary policy; broader financial market development; strengthened domestic institutions/accountability; and enhanced private savings and financial intermediation. There is some evidence that, above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt begins to undermine growth, lending credence to traditional crowding out and bank efficiency concerns. Importantly, the growth contribution of domestic debt is higher if it is marketable, bears positive real interest rates, and is held outside the banking system.

Ten Lessons on Debt Market Development

Recent financial crises, such as in East Asia in the late 1990s, in Latin America during the 1980s, in Mexico in 1994, and in Russia in 1998, have led to recognition, by both policy makers and academics, of the importance of a sound domestic debt market in supporting financial and economic growth and stability. The current global financial crisis has reinforced this view. This note aims to share ten lessons on domestic debt market development based on personal experience with such development over 17 years.

Use of derivatives for debt management and domestic debt market development

The Ninth OECD/World Bank/IMF Annual Global Bond Market Forum held on 22-23 May 2007 in Paris, France, highlighted that there has been very sharp growth in the use of derivative instruments in both mature and emerging market countries. The use of derivative instruments is helping public debt managers in their portfolio management operations and in supporting market development. Several institutional and structural impediments, however, remain toward the more active use of derivative products. Most developed market debt managers use derivative instruments for debt management purposes, while this is the case for only a handful of emerging markets. Several emerging markets, though, are taking steps towards developing the legal environment necessary to support derivative markets, and are addressing the challenges posed by illiquidity of the underlying cash market, deficiencies in prudential regulation, and restrictions on market participation.

Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factorson the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries

Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.

Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries

Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.