Domestic Audiences Research Articles

Commitment ambiguity and ambition in climate pledges

AbstractThe Paris Agreement on climate change is built around a pledge-and-review system, wherein countries submit nationally determined pledges of mitigation commitments. While the agreement’s flexible design has attracted broad participation, its lenient informational requirements for pledges have also engendered considerable ambiguity in countries’ commitments. What are the implications of commitment ambiguity on the credibility of compliance and treaty effectiveness more broadly? This article sheds light on these questions by evaluating the relationship between commitment ambiguity and ambition in countries’ Paris pledges. We introduce a model that disentangles commitment ambiguity into two distinct forms: structural and strategic. We argue that structural ambiguity, which arises from constraints on the information necessary for governments to accurately assess their commitment potential, dampens the ambition levels of pledges. This prudence effect is driven by compliance concern: the anticipation of audience costs in case of non-compliance induces policymakers to adjust ambition downwards. Our empirical analysis of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions demonstrates that ambiguous pledges exhibit lower ambition than precise ones. In line with our theory, this prudence effect of ambiguity is mainly pronounced among democracies, which face higher domestic audience costs in case of non-compliance with pledges than autocracies. This article contributes a novel theory of ambiguity and ambition in international institutions, which shows how audience-based compliance concerns can discipline cheap talk. Moreover, the article’s empirical findings provide insight into the credibility of countries’ climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, with implications for the treaty’s overall effectiveness prospects.

Soviet Industrialization Narrative in the Context of Constructing Political Discourse: A Museum Commemoration (Cases of the Karaganda Local History Museum and Karlag)

Examining museum narratives subjectively can enhance our understanding of political discourse formation. For this, the article aims to cover the events of industrialization in Kazakhstan as part of the modern historical and political discourse and collective memory, covered by the Kazakh regional museums. The basis of the scientific approach consists of different historical methods: the historical-comparative, the typological, the systematic, etc. The historical-comparative and historical-systemic methods were also used, which helped to determine the value of this topic in the general scientific discourse. This research presents the activities of the regional museums of Kazakhstan as a counterbalance to the Soviet narratives concerning the process of industrialization on the territory of Kazakhstan, which transmitted Soviet political myths to the domestic audience. The results of the study can be used further as material for political and socio-historical analysis.

“Business as Usual”? Human Rights NGOs’ Adaptation Strategies to Repressive Legislation

Over the last two decades, governments have increasingly been adopting legislative measures that limit civil society and human rights organizations. While several studies explored the response of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in nondemocratic regimes to such measures, the literature on the response of NGOs in liberal democracies remains scarce. We examine this by analyzing the case of Israel. We conducted in-depth interviews with 30 position holders in 13 human rights NGOs, as well as lengthy ethnographic participant observations in two of these organizations. Our findings show that organizational responses varied significantly, ranging from minor to very significant changes. Furthermore, the direction of these changes was not uniform. While some organizations chose to intensify and radicalize their message, others preferred to depoliticize and appease domestic audiences. We reflect on the possible drivers of such strategic organizational differences and discuss the more general effects of repressive legislation in liberal democracies.

Memory Wars and Emotional Politics: “Feel Good” Holocaust Appropriation in Central Europe

Abstract This article analyzes the patriotic turn in Holocaust memory politics, exploring the processes through which the narrative of a morally upright national majority has been pitted against transnational entities such as the European Union. The EU is considered to foster multiculturalism, leading to interpretations of what some perceive as national guilt. The article investigates invocations of shame and pride in Czechia and Slovakia, two countries that are often overlooked in works on Holocaust memory politics yet are symptomatic of larger changes in the region and history appropriation in general. Building on research into emotional communities, it traces how and why political actors across the ideological spectrum have adopted notions of pride to mobilize domestic audiences against “accusations” of local guilt and complicity in the Nazi genocides of Jews and Roma. By doing so, our article demonstrates how Holocaust memory has become entangled with Europeanization and highlights the role of emotions in shaping national identity and belonging.

Explaining Public Demands for Border Militarization

The militarization of border control is a defining feature of contemporary international politics. Why do states flock toward these policies despite their questionable efficacy? We theorize that border militarization stems in part from public reactions to the threat of international and domestic decline. We test this argument with two conjoint experiments that randomize the implementing agency, strategy, costs, and effectiveness of different policies. First, we evaluate whether the public has a baseline preference for militarization, holding constant the material costs and consequences of the border policy. Second, we prime threats of decline—in terms of either America’s dominant status in the world or the majority position of white-identifying Americans within the U.S.—and track changes in preferences for militarized border policies. The results indicate that both threats of decline can increase support for border militarization, with important partisan differences. Border militarization plausibly stems from the reactionary politics of domestic audiences.

Under Which Conditions Do Populist Governments Use Unpolitics in EU Decision-Making

Until recently, we knew very little about the role of populist governments in EU decision-making. The “crucial case” of refugee distribution within the EU demonstrated that their behaviour was ruled by unpolitics: they rejected formal and informal rules of decision-making if these were not conducive to their preferred outcome, they rejected traditional means of ensuring compromises, and they rejected solutions to perpetuate crises. However, to what extent is unpolitics a phenomenon unique to migration—an area prone to (nativist) populist capture? This thematic issue compares the behaviour of populist governments in the Council of the EU across different policy areas. The goal is to better understand under which conditions unpolitics is more likely to manifest in EU decision-making. We argue that unpolitics is intrinsically linked to vote-seeking strategies, where populist governments use EU decision-making to mobilise domestic audiences. Hence, unpolitics is more prone to “high gain” and “low risk” issues, since they can be more easily politicised. Unpolitics is also more likely to manifest in venues that act as a tribune, where populist actors can directly speak to domestic audiences. Finally, since unpolitics relies on the mobilisation of voters, it is essentially a two-level game largely determined by domestic political and socioeconomic conditions. Overall, we see that, although the EU institutions have proved relatively resilient, unpolitics is gradually unsettling and hollowing out norms, institutions, and discourses.

Securitization versus sovereignty? Multi-level governance, scientific objectivation, and the discourses of the Canadian and American heads of state during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The global health regime is caught in a paradox, whereby connecting "human" to "(inter)national" security to prevent the spread of infectious diseases unwittingly introduces into this complex and expertise-reliant domain of "low politics" the notion of "sovereign decisionism"-states' prerogative to identify a threat and counter it with exceptional measures that may in turn constrain their ability to unilaterally securitize disease. This article introduces an analytical framework presenting three pathways through which state leaders with different conceptions of sovereignty and varying constraints on their legitimacy among their domestic audiences may nevertheless securitize policy domains traditionally considered as falling within the scope of sub-state "low politics." Two of the pathways begin with scientific objectivation rather than politicization, and one trades power concentration for collaboration with sub-state and global authorities. I then compare the Canadian and American responses during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic to uncover how these contextual factors disposed Donald Trump to politicize COVID-19, while Justin Trudeau emulated the World Health Organization's securitization of the virus without centralizing state powers.

Expelled from the Fairytale: The Impact of the Dissident Legacy on Post-1989 Central European Politics

To understand the political dimension of dissident legacies, we need first to understand the components that “made” the dissidents and follow their reconfiguration after 1989, leading to initial empowerment followed by gradual demise of the liberal post-dissident elite. Dissidence in the form that first appeared in the late 1960s and early 1970s in central and eastern Europe constituted a particular mode of political practice, combining open, non-violent dissent with universalist moral claims. The phenomenon of dissidentism was transnational, as political empowerment of oppositionists was achieved through a particular network of relationships between domestic audiences, repressive regimes, and Western media, social movements, trade unions, political parties, and policymakers. The specificities of the dissidents’ empowerment can partly explain key features of post-dissident politics and the visible backlash against former prominent dissidents, which has contributed to the rise of illiberalism and to democratic backsliding. This article traces the post-1989 trajectories of a few who belonged among central Europe’s most prominent representatives in this symbolic category, to try to explain the causes and character of the swift backlash against them—or as Václav Havel put it, their “expulsion from the fairytale.” Three pillars of dissident political power turned into the roots of their demise. First, critics question the dissidents’ uniqueness and rewrite their master narrative. Further, we see a clash of representations that results from the dissidents’ transnational empowerment, and third, the broader anti-elite and anti-intellectual tendencies that always accompanied dissidence as its shadow became amplified by more recent populist rhetoric.

Strategising solidarity: an examination of the Visegrád group’s role and motivations in EU migration policies

ABSTRACT The V4’s opposition to common internal migration policies has often been explained through their lack of affectedness by migration and their anti-immigrant publics. Yet, the V4 have taken a key role in external EU migration policies and become the third largest donor under the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa. Through this theory testing case study, we argue that international standing and reputation, as well as an attempt to remain both responsive to their electorates and responsible towards their European partners, were key motivations in adopting this role. Our evidence suggests that the V4 supported external and border policies to demonstrate cooperativeness and responsibility to those European partners who had previously criticised their lack of solidarity. They did so in the external dimension, as this area was much less salient for their domestic audiences, allowing them to also remain responsive to domestic voters as well.

Audience Costs and the Credibility of Public versus Private Threats in International Crises

Abstract The credibility of public versus private threats in international crisis bargaining has received scholarly attention. While public threats are often believed to be more credible than private ones because of audience costs, others contend that private threats should be equally credible or even more. Also, the effect of public threats can be conditioned by other domestic factors such as domestic hawkishness and a leader’s unpopularity. To test these competing expectations, I conducted a conjoint survey experiment that examines how observers assess resolve to fight in an international crisis with a sample of US citizens (N = 1,203). Three major findings stand out. First, evidence suggests that both types of threats increase the perceived likelihood that a country will stand firm. Second, though their effect size is small, public threats are more effective than private ones. Lastly, I find support for the conditional effect of public threats, indicating that the underlying mechanism of the credibility of public threats is domestic audience costs.

Voter reaction to the government’s refusal of natural disaster assistance: Experimental evidence from Turkey and India

How do citizens respond to their government’s decision to accept or reject foreign assistance in the face of a natural disaster? While the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters necessitate international cooperation for effective response, there have been numerous instances where states have declined foreign assistance offers due to reputation concerns. In this article, we focus on the domestic audience dynamics of such behavior. Drawing on experimental survey data from Turkey and India, two middle-income countries with geopolitical ambitions and recent experience in refusing foreign assistance, we find that accepting foreign assistance during natural disasters leads to higher evaluations of government performance, though this positive effect is driven by opposition voters only. Incumbent voters, conversely, solidify their support for the government regardless of its decision toward foreign assistance. The domestic political effects of government decisions in response to aid offers are largely independent of the identity of the country offering assistance.

Faktor Keberhasilan Delimitasi Batas Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif (ZEE) antara Indonesia dan Filipina

This paper discusses factors underlying the success of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) boundary delimitation between Indonesia and the Philippines. This paper uses issue-level approach from the literature on territorial disputes which focus on the interaction between territoriality and visibility factors in shaping the dynamics of territorial disputes. According to this approach, disputes over territory that is not salient in terms of its tangible/intangible value but is visible to domestic audience are more likely to be settled peacefully because the government is likely to face pressure from the domestic audience to settle the dispute and the low salience of the territory increase the possibility for peaceful settlement. This paper found that this also applies in the case of Indonesia and the Philippines. The undelimited EEZ between Indonesia and the Philippines is not salient but the increase visibility of this issue contributes to the immediate completion of boundary delimitation between the two countries peacefully.

“Eastern Opening” Policy as Political Marketing: Populism and Hungary’s Relations with China under the Orbán Government

ABSTRACT In this study, we focus on the nexus between the populist domestic politics of Hungary and the Hungarian foreign policy. We find that conventional explanations involving pragmatism and nationalism are limited, so we take the analytical approach of political marketing to understand the rhetoric and behavior of the Orbán government, with special reference to its relations with China. We argue that through its high-profile “Opening to the East” policy, the Orbán government attempted, with mixed outcomes, to communicate its foreign policy promises and results as persuasion and contestation to its domestic audience largely for its own political gains.

Models for the Development of Regional Cinematographies in the Russian Federation: Preliminary Observations

The article is devoted to the current state of regional cinema development in the Russian Federation and draws on the authors’ extensive practical experience in the development of regional cinema in Russia.A brief historiography of the issue is given, and approaches to the definition of “regional cinema” are considered. The authors explore models of regional cinema development in contemporary Russia by analyzing key areas in different regions. For generalization and modelling, the methodology for analyzing the region’s activity in the sphere of film development, which includes 10 areas, developed in 2018, is taken as a basis. This methodology allowed us to isolate several models that are based on a certain dominant factor. These include attracting external film crews to the region and supporting them through a regional film commission (the Kaliningrad model); the prevalence of authentic ethnic issues in cinema, which form the content basis of regionally produced products and are primarily oriented towards the internal regional distribution market and domestic audiences (the Yakut model); and the creation of a workshop for higher specialized film education programmes in a particular region (the Kabardino-Balkarian model). The authors also suggest a mixed model, which does not have a clear dominant development direction and is common in most regions of the Russian Federation. The authors also draw attention to models of regional cinema development that may become promising in the future.

A cross-platform comparison of China’s confrontational diplomatic communication

ABSTRACT In recent years, increasingly confrontational diplomatic communication has become a concerning trend, marked by a rise in aggressive narratives between nations. This study explores the transformation of diplomatic communication in the digital age, focusing on the practices of Chinese wolf-warrior diplomacy on social media. By analysing Zhao’s social media posts on international (Twitter) and domestic (Weibo) platforms, we quantified his confrontational diplomatic narratives using structural topic modelling. We then investigate how social media affordances like micro-targeting and boundary spanning, combined with domestic social, political, and economic contexts, shape these confrontational narratives. Our findings demonstrate that Zhao’s communication style varies between platforms: it is reactive and defensive on Twitter, addressing international audiences, while being proactive and offensive on Weibo, targeting domestic audiences. This strategic use of social media serves not only diplomatic goals but also aligns with China’s nationalist sentiments and domestic policies. Our study reveals that China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy is both a result of and a contributor to the changing dynamics of international relations and domestic politics, offering a novel framework for understanding confrontational diplomacy’s rise globally.

Managing constraint: frugal opposition to European fiscal solidarity

ABSTRACT The management of the COVID-19 crisis and, in particular, the Next Generation EU fund have shown that European leaders can find integrationist policy solutions despite increasing politicisation at home where democratic constraints may lead to a feared ‘multilevel politics trap’. Therefore, we ask whether and how national governments can manage such constraints and thus spring or avoid the trap. Theoretically, we argue that the agency of governments is a crucial factor for understanding the varying dynamics of politicisation in regional integration, as governments can raise or lower domestic audience costs by strategically interacting with their parliament or media. Empirically, we probe the plausibility of our theoretical propositions by examining constraint management and position-taking in Austria and the Netherlands in the context of European fiscal solidarity. Our results show that there is no inevitably self-reinforcing multilevel politics trap but that the effects of domestic constraint are, to a considerable extent, contingent on the agency of national governments.

Reverse-Engineering of Disinformation Campaigns During the War in Ukraine

Information operations have long been a part of warfare. Disinformation campaigns, in particular, are usually launched by states in order to mislead and confuse populations in adversarial countries, but also to obtain support for their actions from domestic audiences. These campaigns threaten human security, at the individual level, but also state- and even international security. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia came with a new wave of disinformation not only in Ukraine itself, but also in countries from various other continents. This paper studies the characteristics of the spread of disinformation from the first day of the war in February 2022 through July 2023. The data we used in this study came from the EUvsDisinfo project, established by the European Union’s East StratCom Task Force in 2015. In particular, we included variables about the topic of these articles containing disinformation, the specific target audience, and origin of the source disseminating the disinformation. The results indicate that the articles concerned predominantly security-focused topics, and to a lesser extent economic and cultural issues. Interestingly, the target audience for the disinformation articles focused predominantly on non-EU/NATO audiences – they overwhelmingly targeted Russian-speaking populations, but also Arab-speaking and Armenian-speaking populations. The majority of the articles were also from Russian sources. The results also provided other additional insights into the characteristics of disinformation during the war which are discussed in the paper as well. Based our findings, we provide policy recommendations for protection against disinformation campaigns for both EU/NATO-members and countries which were affected by these campaigns but are not members of either of these organizations.

PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA SETTING AND FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY: EXPLAINING SOUTH KOREA’S DELAYED APPLICATION TO THE CPTPP

Foreign policies, including trade policies, typically entail significant executive discretion, marked by a top-down decision-making process. This has been evident in South Korea, where the president, as chief diplomat, wields substantial authority in selecting the country’s Free Trade Agreement partners. Given South Korea's efforts to solidify its status as a trade hub and the strategic advantages of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), why has the country not been able to formally apply for membership? What influenced presidents to consistently list the CPTPP as a foreign economic policy objective, yet refrain from participation while actively pursuing other trade initiatives? This article seeks to adopt insights from the agenda-setting literature to comprehend the mechanisms governing presidential agenda priorities in foreign economic policy. Utilising a framework of foreign policy attention, it uncovers factors and processes that influence South Korean presidents’ focus in shaping trade policies. It demonstrates that external policy events drive the president’s attention, but the limited progress of the CPTPP underscores the crucial impact of the president’s priorities and responsiveness to the domestic audience.

‘Bottom-up securitization’: A visual turn in security studies

In the digital age, images have pervaded almost all spheres of public life and politics. International relations are no exception. The visual dimension of world politics attracts increasing attention which resulted in the emergence of the so-called visual turn in the theory of international relations. It gained particular prominence within the framework of constructivism and particularly within one of the central and most widespread constructivist theories, i.e. the securitization theory. The first section of the paper examines the concept of ‘visual turn’. The second section considers the current state of art of the securitization theory. The third section outlines key features and possible implications of ‘visual securitization’ to the study of international relations. To this end, the authors refer to a resonant case of a Syrian migrant boy Aylan Kurdi, who died in 2015 while trying to immigrate to Europe. The fourth section examines some limitations of the ‘visual securitization’ theory. The authors conclude that the ‘visual turn’ has led to a certain democratization of securitization practices by opening up new opportunities for the ‘bottom-up securitization’, or ‘people’s securitization’. Thus, it questions the traditional monopoly of political elites on the molding of a security narrative. At the same time, the ‘visual turn’ extends the list of possible reference objects of securitization, which comes to include not only domestic audiences, but also other communities. As a result, ‘visual securitization’ raises a number of new issues. In contrast to a traditional ‘speech act’, an image can be open to various interpretations and as such would make the process of interaction with the audience too complicated and inconsistent. The possibility of incorrect interpretation places increased demands on the communicative context and hinders the use of an image as an independent securitization tool. The authors argue that the key to addressing these issues lies in a more active use of artificial intelligence technologies and social networks.

Cultural distance perceived by Chinese audiences in the Korean film Silenced: a study of cross-cultural receptions in film content elements

IntroductionIn the realm of cross-cultural film dissemination, cultural distance emerges as a pivotal factor influencing the reception of domestic audiences to foreign cinematic productions. Despite Korea's thriving film industry and China's vast film market, the cultural distance experienced by Korean films in China remains largely unexplored. This study focuses on the Korean film Silenced, renowned as a classic that champions justice in Korea.MethodBy employing qualitative survey and thematic analysis, this study investigates the cultural distance perceived by forty-four Chinese audiences when watching Silenced.ResultsThe findings revealed that various content elements, such as the film's setting, translation of verbal expression, non-verbal expression of film characters, and visuals/non-diegetic music did not exhibit cultural distance among Chinese audiences. Nevertheless, the plots of morally compromised characters with positive identities, theme exploration of societal darkness and human darkness, and tragic ending introduced a palpable sense of cultural distance perceived by Chinese audiences.DiscussionThis study scrutinizes the outcomes through the lenses of Korean film and Chinese audiences. While certain aspects of Korean cinema and Chinese audience preferences exhibit cultural proximity, mitigating barriers to appreciation in select content domains, Silenced adeptly employs the plots, themes, and ending to delve into the darkness of human nature and societal dynamics. However, under the influence of China's official propaganda and film censorship, Chinese participants evinced a constrained appreciation for cinematic portrayals of human and societal darkness. Concurrently, Chinese participants manifested expectations for films to provide a source of relaxation, a notion incongruent with the oppressive ambiance evoked by Silenced.