Abstract Background: DNA replication and cell cycle regulation are frequently disrupted as part of a cancer’s progression toward uncontrolled proliferation, generating somatic copy number alterations (CNAs) and producing intratumoral heterogeneity that drives subsequent evolution. Structural variation and CNAs have been shown to impact epigenetic and chromatin states, but our ability to assess their impact on DNA replication timing (RT) and cell proliferation rates remains limited. Single-cell whole genome sequencing (scWGS) is a powerful method for studying clonal heterogeneity and CNAs, and has the potential to provide greater insight into DNA replication dynamics in aneuploid populations. However, computational identification of S-phase cells and distinguishing inherited somatic CNAs from transient DNA replication changes remain challenging. Methods: We present a new method, PERT, which uses a Bayesian framework to model read depth as a combination of somatic copy number, replication, and sequencing bias, enabling estimation of DNA replication profiles and cell cycle phase from scWGS data. Unlike previous approaches, PERT provides unbiased estimates of RT and cell cycle phase which allows for analysis of previously uncharacterized cell types using any scWGS platform. These unique properties enable PERT to perform novel analysis such as estimating clone-specific proliferation rates and studying the interplay between RT and somatic CNAs during tumor evolution. We applied PERT to a cohort of >50,000 scWGS cells obtained from a collection of genomically unstable breast and ovarian cell lines, xenografts and primary cancer tissues. Results: Clone RT profiles correlated with future copy number changes in serially passaged cell lines. Cell type was the strongest determinant of RT heterogeneity, while whole genome doubling (WGD) and mutational signature had weaker RT associations but were associated with accumulation of late S-phase cells. Recurrent CNAs affecting chromosome X had striking impact on RT, with loss of the inactive X allele shifting replication earlier, and loss of inactive Xq resulting in reactivation of Xp. Analysis of time series xenografts illustrated that cell cycle distributions approximate clone proliferation. This relationship enabled us to observe that highly proliferative clones were the most chemosensitive in cisplatin-treated xenografts and, separately, present novel evidence that WGD leads to slower proliferation. Conclusions: Our analysis implicates cell type as the strongest determinant of RT with chrX being the locus of highest RT variation due to X-inactivation. Separately, quantification of S-phase cells enables interrogation of the on- and off-treatment fitness of genetically distinct subclones. This work leads to better understanding of how DNA replication dynamics drive and are further modulated by genomic instability. Citation Format: Adam C. Weiner, Marc Williams, Hongyu Shi, Ignacio Vazquez-Garcia, Sohrab Salehi, Nicole Rusk, Sohrab P. Shah, Andrew McPherson. Single-cell DNA replication dynamics in genomically unstable cancers [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 869.
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