Abstract Forest carbon sinks, a critical component of the global carbon cycle, constitute nearly half of the total terrestrial carbon pool. This study employed correlation analysis and factor effect analysis to quantify the influences of various factors on the volume of Chinese fir stands. A novel modeling framework was developed using the stacking ensemble learning and LSTM (LongShort-TermMemory) models. This framework incorporated diverse base learners, including XGBoost, Adaboost, KNN, and DT, which are intelligently ensemble via GBDT as a meta learner. The model was further optimized by comparing activation functions and optimizers, with ReLU selected as the activation function and Adam as the optimizer. Model accuracy was evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and R2 metrics, significantly enhancing its learning ability and generalization performance. The findings are as follows: (1) Stand stocking showed strong positive correlations with depression, age group, average diameter at breast height (ADBH), average tree height (ATH), slope, and elevation. Conversely, it exhibited significant negative correlations with origin, stand density, and slope position. In investigating Chinese fir growth on slopes, no significant growth differences were observed between downslopes and midslopes; however, both differed significantly from upper slopes. (2) The stacking ensemble learning method constructed here surpassed all existing single models in terms of estimation and assessment indices, demonstrating superior comprehensive performance. (3) Among the LSTM models, Adam-LSTM performed the best (R2=0.844), followed by Sigmoid-LSTM (R2=0.656), while the RMSprop-LSTM model performed the worst (R2=0.618). Combined with artificial intelligence methods, our optimized carbon stock estimation model can help to improve the ability of forest land management and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management of forest areas.
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