Disturbance Regimes Research Articles

Multi‐level framework to assess social variation in response to ecological and social factors: modeled with coral gobies

Understanding variation in social organization that lacks a strong phylogenetic signal represents a key focus of research in behavioural ecology. Accordingly, we established a framework that identifies whether a range of ecological and social factors are affecting the social maintenance of taxa across multiple categories of social variation (ranging from large to fine‐scale): 1) forms of sociality, 2) degree of sociality, 3) social plasticity and 4) hierarchy maintenance. Each category of variation can then be assessed in combination to provide an outlook for social maintenance in light of predictor factors. We modelled this framework by quantifying each category over time, space and disturbance regime using multiple species of coral‐dwelling gobies, genus Gobiodon. Gobies are an interesting model system as they vary in social structure, have within‐group cooperation, and form mutualisms with coral hosts, which are vulnerable to climatic disturbances. We found that gobies varied in forms of sociality – from being more solitary or pair‐forming in high disturbance regimes, versus group‐forming in moderate disturbance regimes at some locations. Only low or moderate degrees of sociality were observed in gobies, with location or disturbance regime affecting some species. The size of coral hosts influenced the social plasticity of gobies, which was affected by climatic disturbances. Gobies did not exhibit direct changes to hierarchy maintenance, as location and disturbance regime did not affect their size‐based hierarchies. Lastly, by combining the four categories of variation, we found a high loss of sociality in coral‐dwelling gobies due to environmental disturbances, which likely affects overall goby survival as group‐forming can improve survival and fitness. By using our structured framework, we identified which categories of social variation were influenced by ecological factors like location and disturbance. This framework therefore provides an excellent tool for predicting future responses of animal societies to environmental stressors.

Climate, wildfire, and volcanic ash drivers of ecosystem change in high mountain forests, British Columbia, Canada

Northwest North America has unique high elevation <i>Picea-Abies</i> forests and parkland classified in British Columbia as the Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine-fir (ESSF) Biogeoclimatic zone. These ecosystems occur on a topographically and climatically complex landscape, juxtaposed with diverse vegetation types including alpine tundra, inland rain forest, dry conifer forest, and grasslands. Spatio-temporal ecosystem disturbance is varied, driven by factors such as climate variation, wildfire, volcanic eruptions, and insect herbivory. A pollen and charcoal record derived from a lake sediment core from the ESSF reveals a unique late-glacial to modern vegetation history progressing from alpine steppe through dry open conifer forest to moist spruce-fir ecosystems, the latter arising only 4600 years ago; late by comparison to other ESSF sites in the region. Repeated disturbance in the mid Holocene by wildfire coupled with volcanic ash deposition and increased climatic variation resulted in recurring <i>Pinus contorta</i>-dominated seral forest stands before cooling and moistening in the late Holocene led to stable <i>Picea-Abies</i> forest. With rapid climate change, changing disturbance regimes, and timber harvest, the management of dry ESSF forests needs to consider that this forest-type could transform into parkland or open seral pine stands, with a high frequency disturbance regime.

Soil and climate‐dependent ingrowth inference: broadleaves on their slow way to conquer Swiss forests

Forests provide essential ecosystem services that range from the production of timber to the mitigation of natural hazards. Rapid environmental changes, such as climate warming or the intensification of disturbance regimes, threaten forests and endanger forest ecosystem services. In light of these challenges, it is essential to understand forests' demographic processes of regeneration, growth, and mortality and their relationship with environmental conditions. Specifically, understanding the regeneration process in present‐day forests is crucial since it lays the foundation for the structure of future forests and their tree species composition. We used Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) data covering vast bio‐geographic gradients over four decades to achieve this understanding. Trees that reached a diameter at breast height of 12 cm between two consecutive NFI campaigns were used to determine regeneration and were referred to as ingrowth. Employing three independent statistical models, we investigated the number, species, and diameter of these ingrowth trees. The models were subsequently implemented into a forest simulator to project the development of Swiss forests until the mid‐21st century. The simulation results showed an ingrowth decrease and a shift in its species composition, marked by a significant reduction in Norway spruce Picea abies and concurrent increases in broadleaves. Nevertheless, the pace of this change towards climatically better adapted species composition is relatively slow and is likely to slow down even further as ingrowth declines in the future, in contrast to the fast‐changing climatic conditions. Hence, support through adaptive planting strategies should be tested in case ingrowth does not ensure the resilience of forests in the future. We conclude that since the regeneration of forests is becoming increasingly challenging, the current level at which ecosystem services are provided might not be ensured in the coming decades.

Climatic and disturbance impacts on temperate rainforest development since ∼18 ka in central-west Isla Grande de Chiloé (42.7°S)

Understanding the role of disturbance regimes on terrestrial ecosystems is often compounded by the paucity of time series sufficiently long and detailed to capture triggering events and the sequence of changes in species composition, community structure and dynamics along a time continuum until the present. Adding complexity to this problem, disturbance regimes and the distribution/competitive interactions of participating species may vary in time with shifts in mean climatic conditions and variability. Here we present results from sediment cores we collected from small closed-basin lakes near the Pacific coast of central Isla Grande de Chiloé, a sector with the lowest seasonality and recurrence of explosive volcanic events in Northwestern Patagonia (NWP). Our aim is examining vegetation development since the last glaciation and exploring potential climatic and disturbance impacts. We found rapid establishment of closed-canopy rainforests, which have persisted with little variation in terms of physiognomy until the present. Significant changes in species composition, structure, dynamics, and rates of change are evident over the last ∼18,000 years, along with fire maxima at ∼16.7 ka, ∼12.7 ka, between ∼11.7-9 ka, from ∼2 ka to the present, and minima in the interim. Fires precede major increases in disturbance favored taxa, which correspond in timing with fire activity maxima at NWP scale. The most recent ∼2000 years coincide with the highest number and ubiquity of human occupations at central-west and NWP scale, raising the possibility that fires were driven by human activities near our study sites. We detect a conspicuous increase in disturbance-favored trees ∼150 years after deposition of the Puma Verde Tephra (∼8.3 ka) and interpret their subsequent maintenance by frequent blowdown events after ∼7.5 ka in exposed sectors of the Coastal Range. We posit that enhanced storminess driven by stronger Southern Westerly Winds since ∼7.5 ka has favored early successional opportunistic trees in detriment of old-growth forests dominated by shade-tolerant species, generating a spatial mosaic of forest patches or gaps in different stages of recovery.

Stand dynamics of old-growth hemlock forests in central Bhutan are shaped by natural disturbances

Understanding how past disturbances have influenced the development of forests is critical for deciphering their current structure and composition and forecasting future changes. In this study, dendrochronological methods were applied to uncover the disturbance history of old-growth hemlock-dominated forests in central Bhutan. Analysis of tree-ring samples from two old-growth hemlock stands, located in two different topographic settings, identified the importance of gap-phase dynamics in facilitating recruitment and growth releases and producing complex, multi-aged structures over time. One site showed evidence of a near stand-replacing disturbance in the late 1700s, while the other showed no evidence of high-severity disturbance at any time over the last 500 years. At both sites low- to medium-severity disturbances, some of which appear to be associated with cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal, dominated the disturbance regime. The hemlock stands exhibited a significant positive association between cyclone occurrence and growth release events and between recruitment pulses and growth release events. From 1800–1970 there was an increase in recruitment of angiosperm tree species at most sites and a corresponding decline in conifer recruitment. Over the past 50 years there has been little new recruitment; this may be due to light limitation in the understory from shade-tolerant angiosperms and bamboo in the lower strata of these stands. Significant variations in disturbance dynamics and recruitment were observed across the study sites, suggesting that other factors, such as topography and climate, may be influencing long-term stand development patterns. This study highlights the complex interplay between historical disturbance regimes and tree recruitment in shaping the age and size structures of old-growth hemlock forests in central Bhutan. It also provides new insights into the dynamics of these forests that can be used to support effective forest conservation and management in the future.

Non-linear response of Norway spruce to climate variation along elevational and age gradients in the Carpathians

Climate change, namely increased warming coupled with a rise in extreme events (e.g., droughts, storms, heatwaves), is negatively affecting forest ecosystems worldwide. In these ecosystems, growth dynamics and biomass accumulation are driven mainly by environmental constraints, inter-tree competition, and disturbance regimes. Usually, climate–growth relationships are assessed by linear correlation due to the simplicity and straightforwardness of modeling. However, applying this method may bias results, since the ecological and physiological responses of trees to environmental factors are non-linear, and usually bell-shaped.In the Eastern Carpathian, Norway spruce is at the southeasternmost edge of its natural occurrence; this region is thus potentially vulnerable to climate change. A non-linear assessment of climate–growth relationships using machine-learning techniques for Norway spruce in this area had not been conducted prior to this study. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed a large tree-ring network from 158 stands, with over 3,000 trees of varying age distributed along an elevational gradient. Our results showed that non-linearity in the growth-climate response of spruce was season-specific: temperatures from the previous autumn and current growing season, along with water availability during winter, induced a bell-shaped response. Moreover, we found that at low elevations, spruce growth was mainly limited by water availability in the growing season, while winter temperatures are likely to have had a slight influence along the entire elevational gradient. Furthermore, at elevations lower than 1400 m, spruce trees were also found to be sensitive to previous autumn water availability. Overall, our results shed new light on the response of Norway spruce to climate in the Carpathians, which may aid in management decisions.

Need for structured conservation inputs: a geospatial approach for habitat prioritization to restrict disturbance regime in the protected areas of the Western Himalayan region

AbstractThe population boom increases land-use requirements, and shrinking regions are available to preserve natural biodiversity. Unfortunately, scientific knowledge does not seem to have and might never get a correct solution to how much territory will be sufficient for satisfying the various biodiversity conservation goals. Prioritization of habitat, primarily for threatened species, is a critical management challenge. Habitat management efforts are gradually being performed over broader geographic regions, emphasizing the necessity of spatial and strategic prioritization. Habitat prioritization is a technique popular for identifying critical areas needing conservation initiatives. To develop a strategic conservation framework, key issues must be identified based on the ground knowledge and present land use status, which are difficult to gather for highly rough terrain areas. Incorporating spatial data sets thus helps to get the desired knowledge of the site on a large scale. This study used a grid-based multicriteria approach to create a spatial conservation management framework for the Rajaji-Corbett landscape (RCL) in Northern India. A grid-based prioritization assessment was conducted to identify priority areas for the RCL, keeping invasive species and fire as significant threats. The indicators or criteria were selected by looking at present vital concerns in the landscape. We took 20 indicators for our multicriteria assessment for landscape prioritization of RCL using 2 × 2 km grids for the evaluation and classified them according to low, medium, and high priority areas using Arc GIS Pro. The results identified 931 sq. km area of this landscape needs immediate management interventions where frequent fire incidents and presence of invasive species are high. RCL is well known for its biodiversity wealth and assemblage of various wildlife populations.

Development of a temperate rainforest zonation on the Pacific slopes of the North Patagonian Andes since ∼18 ka

Few studies along the western slopes of the Andes in Northwestern Patagonia (NWP: 40°-44°S) allow examining vegetation development through environmental gradients in latitude and elevation along a time continuum since the Last Glacial Termination (T1, ∼18-11 ka). This complete biostratigraphic context is necessary for assessing the sequence, timing, rates, and direction of compositional/structural changes of the former vegetation, and for deciphering their environmental drivers. Here we report palynological results from two NWP sites spaced ∼22 km apart on the western Andean slopes, Caleta Puelche roadside section located near sea level and Lago Reflejos at mid elevations (∼800 m a.s.l.) and assess their continuous records since local ice-free conditions against other NWP sites. We find that cold-tolerant early successional trees dominated the initial stages of vegetation development in the Seno Reloncaví lowlands (∼18-17 ka), followed by thermophilous shade-tolerant North Patagonian rainforest (NPRF) trees, which achieved their maxima between ∼17 and 15 ka at low-elevations. A spread of cold- and shade-tolerant hygrophilous NPRF conifers ensued (∼14.8-13 ka) reaching similar magnitude at low- and mid-elevations, interrupted by increases in trees favored by canopy fragmentation linked to fire and explosive volcanism (∼13-11 ka). Thermophilous, shade-intolerant, summer-drought tolerant Valdivian rainforest (VRF) trees increased and achieved maxima between ∼10 and 8 ka, most notably in the lowlands, coeval with peak abundance of the NPRF conifers Fitzroya/Pilgerodendron and Podocarpus nubigena in mid-elevation Lago Reflejos, contemporaneous with their virtual disappearance near sea level. Widespread increases in cold-tolerant hygrophilous NPRF trees occurred after ∼8 ka, followed by mixing of NPRF and VRF elements in the lowlands after ∼6.3 ka with centennial-scale alternations. Inter-site and regional coherences of our findings suggest that variations in Southern Westerly Wind influence, along with disturbance regimes of natural and human origin, have driven the composition, structure, dynamics, and zonation of temperate rainforests in NWP since T1. We observe that Lago Reflejos features the highest abundance of Fitzroya cupressoides at regional scale since ∼12 ka, attesting to the importance of mid-elevation Andean environments for the persistence of these highly valued trees in the context of postglacial climate evolution, shifts in fire regimes, volcanic, and human disturbance in NWP.

Protecting Great Barrier Reef resilience through effective management of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks.

Resilience-based management is essential to protect ecosystems in the Anthropocene. Unlike large-scale climate threats to Great Barrier Reef (GBR) corals, outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) can be directly managed through targeted culling. Here, we evaluate the outcomes of a decade of strategic COTS management in suppressing outbreaks and protecting corals during the 4th COTS outbreak wave at reef and regional scales (sectors). We compare COTS density and coral cover dynamics during the 3rd and 4th outbreak waves. During the 4th outbreak wave, sectors that received limited to no culling had sustained COTS outbreaks causing significant coral losses. In contrast, in sectors that received timely and sufficient cull effort, coral cover increased substantially, and outbreaks were suppressed with COTS densities up to six-fold lower than in the 3rd outbreak wave. In the Townsville sector for example, despite exposure to comparable disturbance regimes during the 4th outbreak wave, effective outbreak suppression coincided with relative increases in sector-wide coral cover (44%), versus significant coral cover declines (37%) during the 3rd outbreak wave. Importantly, these estimated increases span entire sectors, not just reefs with active COTS control. Outbreaking reefs with higher levels of culling had net increases in coral cover, while the rate of coral loss was more than halved on reefs with lower levels of cull effort. Our results also indicate that outbreak wave progression to adjoining sectors has been delayed, probably via suppression of COTS larval supply. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive, targeted, and sustained COTS management can effectively suppress COTS outbreaks and deliver coral growth and recovery benefits at reef and sector-wide scales. The clear coral protection outcomes demonstrate the value of targeted manual culling as both a scalable intervention to mitigate COTS outbreaks, and a potent resilience-based management tool to "buy time" for coral reefs, protecting reef ecosystem functions and biodiversity as the climate changes.

Influence of cellulose nanofibers on the behavior of Pickering emulsions. Part II: Thixotropy and dynamic-mechanical tests

Nonlinear rheology of Pickering emulsions is used to further investigate the nonlinear and unrecoverable transformation of inner structures, which is beyond the linear viscoelastic regime of tiny structural disturbances. Exploring various rheological methods plays a vital role in emulsion applications, such as simulating the macroscopic structural transformation between static and liquidlike flow states, strain overshoot, and regeneration for broken structures. According to our previous studies, cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) Pickering emulsions are a typical system for investigating polymer-based emulsions with the auxiliary surfactant [didodecyldimethylammonium bromide (DDAB)] for enhancing CNF absorption. To further study different rheological properties by varying CNF or DDAB contents, multiple interval thixotropic test, large amplitude oscillatory shear, and concentration-time-dependent superposition are employed to study the linear viscoelasticity and structural transformation of nonlinear range. This research was conducted based on the previous published works [Cui et al., Materials 15, 8285 (2022)] as a further characterization for the same sample series.

Habitat changes explain shifts in bird community composition in abandoned military training areas: Lessons for conservation

Military training areas are important biodiversity refuges and may serve as viable components of regional conservation networks, mainly due to the blocking of ecological succession by the disturbance regime creating a heterogeneous open habitat mosaic hosting many threatened species. However, European armies have undergone downsizing over the past decades and numerous military training areas have been abandoned. The assessment of the consequences of this abandonment for biodiversity would show us whether these abandoned areas still provide conservation benefits. For this purpose, we carried out bird surveys in 30 abandoned military training areas in Czechia. The surveys were performed in two periods (2009 and 2020–2021) to track small-scale changes in land cover and bird abundance after the areas were abandoned in the 1990s. We tested (i) whether changes in bird abundance were related to land cover changes and (ii) whether the observed bird species’ responses to the land cover changes can be explained by species-specific characteristics. Multivariate spatial analyses uncovered significant shifts in land cover composition towards a higher representation of dense shrub, forest and built-up areas at the expense of open areas represented by grassland and sparse shrub. These land cover changes explained a small but significant part of bird abundance variation across the areas. Correspondingly, species benefiting from these land cover changes were associated with dense scrub or forest, such as the Common Chiffchaff, Willow Warbler, or Eurasian Blackcap, whereas species suffering from these changes were associated with grassland, such as the European Stonechat and Eurasian Skylark. Phylogenetically informed interspecific analysis aiming to explain changes in bird abundance between periods confirmed that population declines were linked to open habitat preference, while population increases were linked to the preference for dense shrub and forest. In addition, we found that protected species increased their abundance, most likely due to the existence of conservation management that kept their habitats available. These patterns indicate that military training areas transform toward later successional stages after their abandonment with corresponding changes in bird community composition. However, these changes may not necessarily be negative provided that species of conservation concern enjoy the support of conservation management.

Top-down control of climate on long-term interactions between fires, tree-cover and soil erosion in a Mediterranean mountain, Corsica

Fire is a potential significant driver of soil erosion in the Mediterranean area, as it results in the partial removal of vegetation and the alteration of organic matter, affecting soil structure and stability. The erosion of particle sizes is influenced by the intensity and duration of rainfall, regulated by disturbance regimes and vegetation cover. We hypothesize that, during the Holocene, high fire frequency and intensity under precipitation control may have contributed to soil erosion, while plant cover and composition could have mitigated it. This plant cover, in turn, might have been influenced by biomass burning. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a detailed analysis of sediments spanning the last 11,500 years from a small mountain lake, Corsica, situated in the black pine forest belt. The high temporal resolution analysis (∼10 years per sample), used granulometry and loss-on-ignition as proxies for erosion and ecosystem productivity in both the lake and watershed, and fire and plant macroremains as fire and tree cover proxies, respectively. The correlation between particle size and the contents of organic or mineral matter with mean fire return intervals (FRI) revealed significant patterns. Long fire intervals were associated with more fine and coarse sands, whereas short mean FRI positively correlated with clay and, fine and coarse silt, along with higher total mineral and organic matter contents. These findings suggest that fires were more frequent when rain duration was sustained but runoff intensity was lower. Conversely, wildfires were less frequent during intense runoff periods (wetter climate). Unlike fire frequency, fire severity did not correlate with erosion, and tree cover and plant richness had minimal to no effect. The 8.2 kyr event was characterized by runoff transporting primarily coarse sands, i.e. a dry period with very intense rains. This suggests that the system is primarily top-down controlled by climate. Multimillennial erosion trends are influenced by fire frequency and precipitation regimes, whereas vegetation does not seem to have a mitigating effect on this process.

Climate policies for carbon neutrality should not rely on the uncertain increase of carbon stocks in existing forests

The international community, through treaties such as the Paris agreement, aims to limit climate change to well below 2 °C, which implies reaching carbon neutrality around the second half of the century. In the current calculations underpinning the various roadmaps toward carbon neutrality, a major component is a steady or even expanding terrestrial carbon sink, supported by an increase of global forest biomass. However, recent research has challenged this view. Here we developed a framework that assesses the potential global equilibrium of forest biomass under different climate change scenarios. Results show that under global warming carbon storage potential in forest aboveground biomass gradually shifts to higher latitudes and the intensity of the disturbance regimes increases significantly almost everywhere. CO2 fertilization stands out as the most uncertain process, with different methods of estimation leading to diverging results by almost 155 PgC of above ground biomass at equilibrium. Overall, assuming that the sum of human pressures (e.g. wood extraction) does not change over time, that total forest cover does not change significantly and that the trend in CO2 fertilisation as it is currently estimated from satellite proxy observations remains, results show that we have reached (or are very close to reaching) the peak of global forest carbon storage. In the short term, where increased disturbance regimes are assumed to act quicker than increased forest growth potential, global forests might instead act as a carbon source, that will require even more effort in decarbonization than previously estimated. Therefore, the potential of forests as a nature-based solution to mitigate climate change brings higher uncertainties and risks than previously thought.

Ideas and perspectives: Sensing energy and matter fluxes in a biota-dominated Patagonian landscape through environmental seismology – introducing the Pumalín Critical Zone Observatory

Abstract. The coastal temperate rainforests (CTRs) of Chilean Patagonia are a valuable forest biome on Earth given their prominent role in biogeochemical cycling and the ecological value and dynamics of surface processes. The Patagonian CTRs are amongst the most carbon-rich biomes on Earth. Together with frequent landscape disturbances, these forests potentially allow for episodic and massive release or sequestration of carbon into and from the atmosphere. We argue that, despite their particular biogeographic, geochemical, and ecological roles, the Patagonian CTRs in particular and the global CTRs in general are not adequately represented in the current catalog listing critical zone observatories (CZOs). Here, we present the Pumalín CZO as the first of its kind, located in Pumalín National Park in northern Chilean Patagonia. We consider our CZO a representative end-member of undisturbed ecosystem functioning of the Patagonian CTRs. We have identified four core research themes for the Pumalín CZO around which our activities circle in an integrative, quantitative, and generic approach using a range of emerging techniques. Our methodological blend includes an environmental seismology that also fills a critical spatiotemporal scale in terms of monitoring critical zone and surface processes with a minimum intervention in those pristine forests. We aim to gain quantitative understanding of these topics: (1) carbon sink functioning; (2) biota-driven landscape evolution; (3) water, biogeological, and energy fluxes; and (4) disturbance regime understanding. Our findings highlight the multitude of active functions that trees in particular and forests in general may have on the entire cascade of surface processes and the concomitant carbon cycling. This highlights the importance of an integrated approach, i.e., “one physical system”, as proposed by Richter and Billings (2015), and accounts for the recent advances in pushing nature conservation along the Chilean coast.

Identifying anthropogenic legacy in freshwater ecosystems

AbstractThe legacy of historic anthropogenic disturbance can significantly affect the structure and function of contemporary freshwater ecosystems. Environmental research and management that neglect anthropogenic legacy are likely to lead to a biased interpretation of present and future ecosystem dynamics. Yet, anthropogenic legacy remains poorly considered, mainly because of the challenges associated with its identification. Synthesizing past progress in legacy research, we present a conceptual framework for the systematic identification of anthropogenic legacy. We focus on the dynamic processes occurring during legacy formation (e.g., disturbance regime, ecosystem trajectories). Based on the review of relevant case studies, we discuss the historical and contemporary sources of information (e.g., communication, cartographic, paleoenvironmental sources) that can be employed for legacy identification. Finally, we provide practical examples of anthropogenic legacy identification in real‐world freshwater ecosystems. Produced in multidisciplinary collaboration, this review presents a comprehensive approach to anthropogenic legacy to foster its informed and systematic consideration in freshwater research and management.This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems

Quantifying forest disturbance regimes within caribou (Rangifer tarandus) range in British Columbia.

Habitat disturbance is a major driver of the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Canada. Different disturbance agents and regimes negatively impact caribou populations to different degrees. It is therefore critical that land managers and scientists studying caribou have a detailed understanding of the disturbance regimes affecting caribou habitat. In this work we use recent advances in satellite-based disturbance detection to quantify polygonal forest disturbance regimes affecting caribou ecotypes and herds in British Columbia (BC) from 1985 to 2019. Additionally, we utilize this data to investigate harvesting rates since the implementation of the Species at Risk Act (SARA) and publication of recovery strategies for caribou in BC. Southern Mountain caribou herds are the most threatened yet experienced the highest rates of disturbance, with 22.75% of forested habitat within their ranges disturbed during the study period. Over the study period, we found that in total, 16.4% of forested area was disturbed across all caribou herd ranges. Our findings indicate that caribou in BC face high, and in many cases increasing, levels of habitat disturbance. Our results provide a detailed understanding of the polygonal disturbance regimes affecting caribou in BC at the herd scale, and highlight the need for effective implementation of policies aimed at preserving caribou habitat.

Interacting effects of fire and hydroclimate on oak and beech community prevalence in the southern Great Lakes region

Abstract Rising temperatures, increasing hydroclimate variability and intensifying disturbance regimes increase the risk of rapid ecosystem conversions. We can leverage multi‐proxy records of past ecosystem transformations to understand their causes and ecosystem vulnerability to rapid change. Prior to Euro‐American settlement, northern Indiana was a mosaic of prairie, oak‐dominated forests/woodlands and beech‐dominated hardwood forests. This heterogeneity, combined with well‐documented but poorly understood past beech population declines, make this region ideal for studying the drivers of ecosystem transformations. Here, we present a new record from Story Lake, IN, with proxies for vegetation composition (pollen), fire (charcoal) and beech intrinsic water use efficiency (δ13C of beech pollen; δ13Cbeech). Multiple proxies from the same core enable clear establishment of lead–lag relationships. Additionally, δ13Cbeech enables direct comparisons between beech population abundance and physiological responses to changing environments. We compare Story Lake to a nearby lake‐level reconstruction and to pollen records from nearby Pretty and Appleman Lakes and the distal Spicer Lake, to test hypotheses about synchrony and the spatial scale of governing processes. The 11.7 ka sediment record from Story Lake indicates multiple conversions between beech‐hardwood forest and oak forest/woodland. Beech pollen abundances rapidly increased between 7.5 and 7.1 ka, while oak declined. Oak abundances increased after 4.6 ka and remained high until 2.8 ka, indicating replacement of mesic forests by oak forest/woodland. At 2.8 ka, beech abundances rapidly increased, indicating mesic forest reestablishment. Beech and oak abundances correlate with charcoal accumulation rates but beech abundance is not correlated with δ13Cbeech. Fluctuations in beech abundances are synchronous among Story, Appleman and Pretty Lakes, but asynchronous between Story and Spicer Lakes, suggesting regulation by local‐scale vegetation‐fire‐climate feedbacks and secondarily by regional‐scale drivers. Holocene forest composition and fire dynamics appear to be closely co‐regulated and may be affected by local to regional climate variations. The importance of extrinsic drivers and positive/negative feedbacks changes over time, with higher ecoclimate sensitivity before 2.8 ka and greater resilience afterwards. Synthesis: Overall, oak‐ and beech‐dominated ecosystems were highly dynamic over the Holocene, with multiple ecosystem conversions driven by shifting interactions among vegetation, hydroclimate and fire regime.

Decadal demographic shifts and size-dependent disturbance responses of corals in a subtropical warming hotspot

Long-term demographic studies at biogeographic transition zones can elucidate how body size mediates disturbance responses. Focusing on subtropical reefs in eastern Australia, we examine trends in the size-structure of corals with contrasting life-histories and zoogeographies surrounding the 2016 coral bleaching event (2010–2019) to determine their resilience and recovery capacity. We document demographic shifts, with disproportionate declines in the number of small corals and long-term persistence of larger corals. The incidence of bleaching (Pocillopora, Turbinaria) and partial mortality (Acropora, Pocillopora) increased with coral size, and bleached corals had greater risk of partial mortality. While endemic Pocillopora experienced marked declines, decadal stability of Turbinaria despite bleaching, coupled with abundance increase and bleaching resistance in Acropora indicate remarkable resilience of these taxa in the subtropics. Declines in the number of small corals and variable associations with environmental drivers indicate bottlenecks to recovery mediated by inhibitory effects of thermal extremes for Pocillopora (heat stress) and Acropora (heat and cold stress), and stimulatory effects of chlorophyll-a for Turbinaria. Although our study reveals signs of resilience, it foreshadows the vulnerability of subtropical corals to changing disturbance regimes that include marine heatwaves. Disparity in population dynamics suggest that subtropical reefs are ecologically distinct from tropical coral reefs.

Effects of Flooding and Shade on Survival, Growth, and Leaf Gas Exchange of Bottomland Tree Species across the Great Lakes Region (USA)

Forested wetlands are common ecosystems within the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), USA. Projected increases in extreme flooding events and shifting disturbance regimes create challenges for tree regeneration. Forest managers are considering the use of enrichment planting to increase tree species diversity, but limited information is available that quantifies the interactions between the flooding and shade tolerances of candidate tree species. We used a microcosm experiment to manipulate shade and flooding conditions to determine the effects on early survival, growth, and leaf gas exchange of 23 different tree species that vary in shade and flood tolerance. Seedlings were planted in pots and placed in 227 L tanks that were randomly assigned to light reduction (full sun, 40% and 70% reduced sunlight) and flood treatments (water levels of 0, 14, or 27 cm below the soil surface). In general, flooding treatments had a greater influence on seedling growth and leaf gas exchange rates than light reduction treatments. Of the species studied, bald cypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) was the most flood-tolerant, but American sycamore (Platanus occidentalis L.) and river birch (Betula nigra L.) were also highly tolerant of flooding conditions throughout the entire growing season. The flood tolerances of the remaining species varied, but none were tolerant of water table depths within 14 cm of the soil surface for the entire growing season. Most species did not respond to the shade treatments in terms of early growth, survival, and leaf gas exchange. When considering species for planting in forested wetlands, matching the flood tolerance of candidate species to local site hydrology is an important step.

Lepidopteran scales in lake sediments as a reliable proxy for spruce budworm outbreak events in the boreal forest of Eastern Canada

Characterizing disturbance regimes over long time scales is paramount for describing and identifying their variability. The most important biotic disturbance in the eastern Canadian boreal forest is the defoliation caused by the eastern spruce budworm, a moth of the insect order Lepidoptera. Lepidopteran scales have recently been used to reconstruct spruce budworm population fluctuations throughout the Holocene. However, this novel proxy has yet to be compared to an independent proxy. This study aimed to determine whether lepidopteran scales found in the surface sediments of boreal lakes tracked large spruce budworm populations, that is, outbreaks, using yearly aerial surveys (1967–present) of spruce budworm defoliation as an independent proxy. Scales were extracted (1 cm resolution) from the top 20 cm of 210Pb-dated sediment cores recovered from nine lakes. To identify significant abundance peaks of scales in the time series, we removed background noise using a modified version of CharAnalysis. A 100-year smoothing window width combined with a 60th percentile threshold yielded the highest true positive and true negative occurrences, and the lowest false positive and false negative occurrences, with values of 0.69 and 0.70 for Cohen’s Kappa and Matthews correlation coefficient, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that lepidopteran scales are a suitable proxy for identifying spruce budworm outbreaks in the sediment record enabling the reconstruction of budworm and other lepidopteran species outbreak dynamics at millennial timescales.