Distribution Of Votes Research Articles

Unpacking electoral competition: campaign spending, vote distribution and turnout in Chilean mayoral elections

ABSTRACT We examine the complex relationship between campaign spending and electoral outcomes in local elections. We focus on (1) how spending influences the distribution of votes across candidates; (2) its impact on voter turnout; and (3) the differential effects of different types of campaign spending. Using the case of Chile’s 2016 mayoral elections, a candidate-level dataset, and linear regression techniques, we estimate the impact of campaign spending on the share and dynamics of votes obtained. The study reveals that an additional investment of 50 cents per voter correlates with an average 5% increase in vote share as a proportion of elegible voters. This increase is attributed to a double effect: mobilizing new voters and attracting support from competitors. The disaggregated analysis shows that radio advertising is especially impactful for campaign dissemination. These results enrich the literature on electoral strategies, campaign finance dynamics and financing regulations in multi-party systems.

A Review of In-Flight Thermal Comfort and Air Quality Status in Civil Aircraft Cabin Environments

The civil aircraft cabin is enclosed and highly occupied, making it susceptible to a decline in indoor environmental quality. The environmental quality of civil aircraft cabins not only depends on objective factors such as temperature, relative humidity, and the presence of air pollutants such as carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), particle matter (PM), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) but also the subjective factors pertaining to the perceptions and health symptoms of passengers and crew. However, few studies have thoroughly examined the air quality and thermal comfort parameters that are measured during in-flight testing in airplane cabins, as well as the passengers’ subjective perceptions. In order to evaluate the in-flight thermal comfort and air quality status, this study conducted a review of the recent literature to compile data on primary categories, standard limits, and distribution ranges of in-flight environmental factors within civil aircraft cabins. Following a search procedure outlined in this paper, 54 papers were selected for inclusion. Utilizing the Monte Carlo method, the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) distributions under different exercise intensities and clothing thermal resistance were measured with the in-cabin temperature and humidity from in-flight tests. Recommendations based on first-hand data were made to maintain the relative humidity in the cabin below 40%, ensure wind speed remains within the range of 0–1 m/s, and regulate the temperature between 25–27 °C (for summer) and 22–27 °C (for winter). The current estimated cabin air supply rate generally complies with the requirements of international standards. Additionally, potential carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks associated with formaldehyde, benzene, tetrachloroethylene, and naphthalene were calculated. The sorted data of in-flight tests and the evaluation of the subjective perception of the occupants provide an evaluation of current cabin thermal comfort and air quality status, which can serve as a reference for optimizing indoor environmental quality in future generations of civil aircraft cabins.

Increasing Voter Participation Through Health Care–Based Voter Registration

Young people and historically marginalized racial and ethnic groups are poorly represented in the democratic process. Addressing voting inequities can make policy more responsive to the needs of these communities. To assess whether leveraging health care settings as venues for voter registration and mobilization is useful, particularly for historically underrepresented populations in elections. In 2020, nonpartisan nonprofit Vot-ER partnered with health care professionals and institutions to register people to vote. This cross-sectional study analyzed the demographics and voting behavior of people mobilized to register to vote in health care settings, including hospitals, community health centers, and medical schools across the US. The age and racial and ethnic identity data of individuals engaged through Vot-ER were compared to 2 national surveys of US adults, including the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES) and the 2020 American National Election Study (ANES). Health care-based voter registration. The main outcomes were age composition, racial and ethnic composition, and voting history. Of the 12 441 voters contacted in health care settings, 41.9% were aged 18 to 29 years, 15.9% were identified as African American, 9.6% as Asian, 12.7% as Hispanic, and 60.4% as White. This distribution was significantly more diverse than the racial and ethnic distribution of the ANES (N = 5447) and CES (N = 39 014) samples, of which 72.5% and 71.19% self-identified as White, respectively. Voter turnout among health care-based contacts increased from 61.0% in 2016 to 79.8% in 2020, a turnout gain (18.8-percentage point gain) that was 7.7 percentage points higher than that of the ANES sample (11.1-percentage point gain). Demographically, the age distribution of voters contacted in health care settings was significantly different from the ANES and CES samples, with approximately double the proportion of young voters aged 18 to 29 years. This cross-sectional study suggests that health care-based voter mobilization reaches a distinctly younger and more racially and ethnically diverse population relative to those who reported contact from political campaigns. This analysis of the largest health care-based voter mobilization effort points to the unique impact that medical professionals may have on voter registration and turnout in the 2024 US elections. In the long term, health equity initiatives should prioritize expanding voting access to address the upstream determinants of health in historically marginalized communities.

Adoption of nontraditional governance characteristics in US farmer cooperatives

AbstractAlthough the governance of farm producer‐owned and ‐controlled organizations is shaped by the complex interaction of mixed member, director, and manager objectives, its conceptualization in the literature is limited to the assignment of control to members, board directors, and managers. Such a categorization is imperfect as there exist other governance characteristics such as member vote distribution, board director identity, manager identity, and CEO identity. Using 371 survey responses from US farmer cooperatives, we inform the adoption of nontraditional governance characteristics in terms of proportional vote distribution, nonmember board directors (i.e., outside directors), and nonmember managers and CEOs. Furthermore, we relate the adoption of nontraditional characteristics to the competitive scope, organizational function, organizational size, and capital structure of the survey respondents by means of various empirical techniques. Generally, nontraditional adaptation of the governance structure, which implies an advanced delegation of control to decision specialists who are non‐members, is positively associated with the competitive scope and organizational size. Also, such nontraditional adaptation is more common to marketing cooperatives as compared to supply cooperatives. Our study motivates a multi‐dimensional conceptualization of governance, which is necessary to better understand the internal coordination of member and manager objectives. [EconLit Citations: Q13].

디지털 게리맨더링의 편향성 유도가 기본권에 미치는 영향과 입법적 대응방안 연구

Digital gerrymandering refers to the phenomenon of using information technology to artificially manipulate electoral district boundaries to favor a particular party or group. It involves the use of data analysis and information technology to redraw electoral boundaries in a way that results in advantageous outcomes for specific parties or groups. Through digital gerrymandering, it's possible to artificially design the distribution of voters to benefit certain parties or candidates. As a result, this undermines the fairness of elections and induces bias, allowing the votes of certain groups to have disproportionately greater influence compared to others. This process poses several critical threats to the principles and fundamental rights of democracy. First, it violates the principle that every voter's vote should be treated equally. Digital gerrymandering can artificially adjust the value of votes in certain areas, diminishing the influence of some voters while overestimating that of others. Second, it leads to the distortion of political representation. When electoral district boundaries are manipulated, the outcome can differ from the actual will of the voters, resulting in a political representation system that fails to accurately reflect the opinions of some voters. Third, it infringes upon freedom of expression and political diversity. Voters' rights to freely express their political preferences and choose from a variety of political options can be restricted. This study aims to analyze the impact of digital gerrymandering on fundamental rights, especially the right to vote and freedom of expression, and to propose legislative measures to counteract it. It examines how digital technologies can distort the electoral process and specifically how they can infringe upon voters' rights to freely express their will and vote. Additionally, the study explores necessary legislative responses to address these issues, aiming to protect the core values of democracy and ensure the fairness of elections. To achieve this, the study seeks to clarify the concept of digital gerrymandering, illustrate how it can infringe upon fundamental rights through specific examples, and identify concrete legislative measures to ensure transparency and fairness.

The Moderating Effect of Instant Runoff Voting

Instant runoff voting (IRV) has recently gained popularity as an alternative to plurality voting for political elections, with advocates claiming a range of advantages, including that it produces more moderate winners than plurality and could thus help address polarization. However, there is little theoretical backing for this claim, with existing evidence focused on case studies and simulations. In this work, we prove that IRV has a moderating effect relative to plurality voting in a precise sense, developed in a 1-dimensional Euclidean model of voter preferences. We develop a theory of exclusion zones, derived from properties of the voter distribution, which serve to show how moderate and extreme candidates interact during IRV vote tabulation. The theory allows us to prove that if voters are symmetrically distributed and not too concentrated at the extremes, IRV cannot elect an extreme candidate over a moderate. In contrast, we show plurality can and validate our results computationally. Our methods provide new frameworks for the analysis of voting systems, deriving exact winner distributions geometrically and establishing a connection between plurality voting and stick-breaking processes.

CONFIGURATION OF A SIMULTANEOUS-SEPARATE GENERAL ELECTION SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN THE CHARACTER OF AN INCLUSIVE GOVERNMENT SYSTEM IN INDONESIA

The government system essentially examines the relationship between legislative and executive institutions. On the other hand, the concept of a government system can also be related to the form of vertical relationship between the central government and regional governments. Problem formulations for this journal are; What is the character of the strengthening of the government system both at the central and regional levels resulting from the simultaneous general election system in Indonesia? What are the theories and concepts of the government system and general election system in Indonesia? a quo regional head election in Indonesia? This research is normative legal research accompanied by supporting data. The research data was collected through literature study. The analysis was carried out using qualitative methods. Based on the research results, it is concluded that: First, the government system is the concept of legislative and executive relations in carrying out their functions and duties. There are various types of systems such as presidential systems, parliamentary systems and mixed systems. In the presidential system used in Indonesia, there are systemic weaknesses in the form of fixed term features, dual democratic legitimacy, the possibility of the emergence of divided government and the use of multiparty features. Second, the configuration of the simultaneous general election system and the regional head election system can be seen that the presidential general election system uses a simultaneity feature, a presidential threshold of 20%, and uses a majority-runoff system with a distribution of votes in certain areas. Third, the implementation of simultaneous elections and a quo regional heads has not shown any significant strengthening of the government system. Strengthening of the presidential system only occurred in terms of the number of candidates competing, and the majority run-off system did not show any strengthening.

ISSUES OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF ELECTORAL LAW IN TERMS OF MODERNIZATION OF KAZAKHSTAN

The article examines some issues of the implementation of the principles of electoral law and modernization of the Kazakh legislation in this area. The purpose of this work is to analyze the problems of the content and implementation of election legislation, as well as to determine effective ways to improve it based on the study of the fundamental principles of the electoral process. The relevance of the topic is justified by the social and political value of the right to vote for society and the country in the light of its recognition as a necessary factor in the development of democracy in the state. The implementation of systematic and statistical methods is relevant to achieve the goal of the work, supporting the reasoning with practical data. The article examines the content of the principles of electoral law and issues of practical implementation, taking into account their features. The compliance of the principles of electoral law enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan with international standards and obligations of the state is indisputable. The article raises the problem of their interpretation and observance in the process of election campaigns. Recommendations on improving the electoral process in the state are being considered. In particular, special attention is paid to the stages of registration and implementation of election activities by candidates, as well as the issue of accreditation of observers. In addition, the article says that the possible inequality among the candidates may lead to difficulties in applying the capabilities of the media, namely, an unlimited number of paid speeches. With regard to the activities of political parties in the process under study, the dynamics of the distribution of votes and mandates shows the presence and preservation of multiparty system in the legislative body of the state. It is necessary to improve legislative activities to increase the number of mandates for each political party in order to reduce the monopoly of one political party over the others. The paper analyzes the conduct of elections for various historical periods, including recent ones.

The unfolding mystery of the numbers: First and second digits based comparative tests and its application to Ghana’s elections

This study focuses on the use of digits-based test in anomaly detection in presidential elections in Ghana. Even though Ghana has conducted several successful elections to elect presidents, the outcomes of the elections have been challenged in courts on allegations of vote rigging and fraud. It has been established in the literature that for an election to be anomaly free, the following should be satisfied: the distribution of voters turn-out, the winners’ share and total valid votes cast in the election should be uni-modal. Therefore, we assess the applicability of both first and second digits-based tests to aid in the detection of possible anomaly in the 2016 and 2020 presidential election results data in Ghana. The Benford frequency distribution and Spearman rank correlation coefficient tests were used for the analysis of data obtained from the Electoral Commission of Ghana. The results show that the observed first digits distributions of valid vote counts for both New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC), and the total valid votes cast (TVVC), in 2016 and 2020 are consistent with the distributional pattern of first digits postulated by Benford’s Law. However, the findings of the distribution of second digits of the valid vote counts for NPP and total valid vote cast in both 2016 and 2020 elections do not satisfy the probability distributional pattern of second digits according to the Benford’s Law. In view of these, we recommend using the first two digits-based tests to check for consistency of possible election anomaly between the first and second digits since it conveys more information.

A multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition: Introduction to the symposium

In contemporary representative democracies, political competition is not only taking place between political parties but also within parties. Hitherto, research on such intra-party competition has been mostly focused on the electoral dimension, mainly looking at the distribution of preference votes among co-partisans running on the same party list. In this introduction to our symposium on intra-party competition, we argue that intra-party competition occurs in other stages of the electoral cycle than elections and involves the strategic behaviour of more actors than electoral candidates. We present an original conceptual model that introduces a multi-stage and multi-actor perspective on intra-party competition, including three stages (the nomination stage, the electoral stage and the post-electoral stage) and three key actors (voters, politicians and parties). Based on our novel conceptual model, we provide examples of strategic behaviour of each actor in each of the stages. We further introduce each contribution of this symposium and present how each contribution relates to our multi-stage and multi-actor model of intra-party competition.

A two-step treatment planning strategy incorporating knowledge-based planning for head-and-neck radiotherapy.

There has been much research interest in automated head-and-neck (HN) planning with the goal of reducing planning time and inter-planner variability while improving plan quality. However, clinical uses are still limited and institution-dependent due to the plan complexity. This work aims to investigate whether the use of a novel semi-automated two-step optimization method (TSP) can improve the quality and efficiency of planning while providing a simple framework that other institutions can follow. Forty patients (two and three prescription isodose levels) were retrospectively studied. Plans were generated by TSP which incorporates a knowledge-based planning solution. Comparisons were performed for plan conformity and selected dose-volume indices between clinical plan (CP) and TSP. Blind reviews were carried out by 15 clinicians to determine preference between the CP and TSP, as well as clinical suitability. For majority of patients studied, TSP had similar or slightly better conformity for the high-dose PTV, and better conformity for the low-dose PTV and 45Gy isodose lines compared to CP. The only statistically significant difference observed for the serial organs was a reduction of the spinal cord maximum dose with TSP. Except for left parotid gland (Dmean and V30 for both 2R× and 3R× groups) and oral cavity (Dmean for 3R× group), TSP had significant dose reductions for all parallel organs compared to CP. Blind reviewers either showed preference/no preference for 57.2%/21.7% (2R×) and 57.5%/27.8% (3R×) of TSP compared with CP. Excluding no preference votes, 60% of TSP were preferred. TSP was selected majority of the time when looking at the vote distribution for each patient individually. Our TSP allows plans to be created within 90-min time frame while offering improvements in plan quality and less inter-planner variability as compared to traditional planning techniques.

Transformation of District-Level Competition in Mongolian Elections, 1992–2020: Towards Territorial Homogenization (Nationalization) of Voter Behaviour?

This paper tests the effects of the electoral reforms in all Mongolian elections between 1992 and 2020 by analysing national and district-level results. Especially, we address the question whether the pattern of the national competition is replicated also at the local level and the presence or absence of a (party system) projection from the local to the national level can corroborate the so-called nationalization thesis. We take different approaches. First, we use the Gallagher disproportionality index (LSq Index) to measure the disproportionality of an electoral outcome. Second, we use Laakso and Taagepera’s effective number of parliamentary parties (ENPP) as a measure of parliamentary fragmentation, and effective number of electoral parties (ENEP) as a measure of concentration in the distribution of votes across parties. Third, we use graphic tool, simplex representation, to analyse the nature of competitiveness at district level. We have come to several conclusions. First, our analysis has shown that the tendency to symmetrical two-party competition was present in less than half of the elections, together with the increasing trend against bipolarization of Mongolian electoral politics. A very important finding has been also the confirmation of the continued importance of the urban-rural cleavage in Mongolia, which resulted in a different shape of party competition between the countryside and the capital city of Ulaanbaatar. Finally, the equilateral simplex representation has broadened our understanding of district-level electoral competition, when we address the so-called nationalization thesis. While some previous studies found the presence of some form of two-party system in almost all Mongolian elections, the simplex visualization of the competition showed that the district-level party system was far from nationalized, i.e., with the two nationally strong parties being strongest in the districts as well – quite the opposite.

ANALYSIS OF PARTY SYSTEMS BY MEASURES OF CONCENTRATION OF INEQUALITY AND ASYMMETRY OF THE PARETO CURVE

The article proposes to assess party systems using the Hoover Index (HI) and the Pareto curve skewness coefficient, PAC. Conceptually, HI is one of the simplest and most intuitive measures of inequality concentration, designed to determine the proportion of votes that must be redistributed from parties that received at least the average number of votes in elections to other parties in order to achieve an even distribution of votes. The PAC determines which parties contribute the most to overall party inequality as measured by HI. For the typology of inequality concentration in party systems, the generalized Pareto principle is used. When applying the new concept to the analysis of party systems in 18 European countries (158 electoral cases), it was found that most of them had a left-wing skewness of the Pareto curve and a concentration of inequality close to the proportion of the Pareto principle. The proposed method for assessing party systems can be considered as an independent tool, or as an addition to the currently widely used Laakso-Taagepera effective numbers of parties.

The Distribution of Justices' Votes and Countering National Disunity

The estimation of the distribution that matches the voting of the justices of the Supreme Court shows that voting is correlated and reveals three phenomena: an outlier distribution produced by one composition of the Court, the surprising frequency of unanimous decisions, and the intensity with which the Court avoids 4–4 decisions. The intensity with which the Court avoids 4–4 splits and the strength of the drive to produce unanimous decisions seem sensitive to national disunity. At times of greater disunity, 1965 to 1975 and 2001 to 2020, the Court avoids 4–4 splits more intensely and has a greater fraction of its decisions be unanimous.

Application of the local Moran index to detect electoral anomalies

This article discusses the use of one of the methods of spatial analysis, as the local Moran index, for analyzing election results in order to identify the existence of electoral anomalies. The author conducted a study based on the results of the 2016 parliamentary elections in the context of Moscow districts for the five largest parliamentary parties:“Edinaya Rossiya”, KPRF, LDPR, “Spravedlivaya Rossiya” and “Yabloko”. Cartograms of clusters of spatial autocorrelation were obtained for each batch, according to the results of which areas with abnormal results were identified. Electorally abnormal areas were considered for which a violation of the neighborhood effect was recorded, that is, there was a difference in the voting index from neighboring areas. An analysis was also carried out and possible reasons for these differences were expressed. In conclusion, it was noted that some parties demonstrate uniformity in the territorial distribution of votes, which is why abnormal areas were not allocated. Conclusions were also drawn about the effectiveness of using this spatial analysis method to identify electoral anomalies. At the end, the general results of the work were spelled out, including also possible further ways of developing this topic.

Aesthetic Bot: Interactively Evolving Game Maps on Twitter

This paper describes the implementation of the Aesthetic Bot, an automated Twitter account that posts images of small game maps that are either user-made or generated from an evolutionary system. The bot then prompts users to vote via a poll posted in the image's thread for the most aesthetically pleasing map. This creates a rating system that allows for direct interaction with the bot in a way that is integrated seamlessly into a user's regularly updated Twitter content feed. Upon conclusion of the each voting round, the bot learns from the distribution of votes for each map to emulate user preferences for design and visual aesthetic in order to generate maps that would win future vote pairings. We discuss the ongoing results and emerging behaviors that have occurred since the release of this system from both the bot's generation of game maps and the participating Twitter users.

Exploratory Research on Satisfaction Degree in Distance Education

In order to solve the education problems caused by teachers and students’ unavoidable absence in school during the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of online education activities were carried out by Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunication in early March. To explore students and teachers’ degree of satisfaction with distance education, this paper investigates multiple dimensions such as students’ degree of satisfaction with teachers, the regional living standard, educational resources and negative factors that reduce the students’ degree of satisfaction, etc. Furthermore, the attitude of teachers toward distance education may be partially reflected by the arrangement of live classes. All of the statistics are analyzed by comparing the distribution of votes. The results show that the degree of satisfaction by students and teachers with distance education is generally high but varies in areas with different living standards. In addition, we find that students are more sensitive to the lack of a learning atmosphere.

How voter distributions, issue ownership, and position influence party emphasis

AbstractBackgroundResearch regarding party behavior has often be understood through one of two models, (1) the Downsian proximity model, which supposes parties will change positions in order to be most competitive, and (2) the issue salience model, which understands parties to emphasize issues on which it is more competitive.ObjectivesThis study produces a theoretical framework explaining why parties, specifically in a two‐party system, emphasize one issue dimension over others. We argue that voter distributions differ across issue dimensions and take one of four general forms: (1) unimodal symmetrical, (2) bimodal symmetrical, (3) unimodal asymmetrical, and (4) bimodal asymmetrical. These distributions determine the nature of an issue dimension as approximating valence or positional. Combined with a party's issue ownership or positional advantage, this determines whether a party emphasizes an issue. An issue owner is expected to emphasize unimodal symmetrical issues, parties with positional advantage are expected to emphasize bimodal asymmetrical issues, and no party should emphasize a bimodal symmetrical issue. The decision to emphasize a unimodal asymmetrical issue is dependent upon whether the issue owner and the party with positional advantage are the same and the long‐versus short‐term electoral strategy of a party.MethodsData to test this theoretical approach do not yet exist. This theoretical framework is designed to apply to a two‐party system. In order to properly test the above expectations, we would need data regarding the distribution of voters along different issue dimensions, as well as the emphases placed on issues by parties. These data must be specific to a two‐party system.ConclusionThis theory attempted to build a synthesized theory of party behavior based on the Downsian proximity model and the issue salience model. This theory helps explain what issues parties will seek to contest, and which issues become politicized. However, this framework can be extended to explain many questions regarding polarization, party behavior, electoral strategy and political contestation.

The short-term effects of electoral reforms

While electoral reforms clearly affect how seats are (re)distributed among parties immediately after their adoption, they do not significantly change the (re)distribution of votes among parties. As political knowledge is positively related to turnout, we argue that the effect of majoritarian electoral reforms on the number of parties is contingent upon the turnout in the last election prior to the reform. Specifically, the lower the turnout level in the previous election, the more effective the majoritarian reform will be. However, the psychological effect of proportional reforms relies on the interplay between elites and voters and is highly uncertain. The argument is tested using aggregated data from 43 major electoral reforms worldwide from 1945 to 2020 and individual data from the first election held in New Zealand after the 1993 electoral reform.

The Electoral Consequences of International Migration in Sending Countries: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

This paper examines the political attributes of emigrants and how their departure affects the electoral outcomes in their home countries. I argue that emigrants are different from those who remain in their political preferences as well as economic attributes, such that large-scale emigration changes the distribution of voters in sending countries. Emigration can also directly affect the policy preferences of individuals who stay in their home countries. I test these arguments in seven Central and Eastern European countries, using individual-level surveys and region-level data on emigration and elections. To address potential endogeneity issues, I use instrumental variable analysis, leveraging the surge of Polish emigration to the United Kingdom after the EU enlargement. I find that emigrants from Central and Eastern Europe tend to be younger, highly educated, and politically more progressive and that the vote shares of far-right parties are larger in regions with higher emigration rates. Also, I find that exposure to large-scale emigration affects the vote choices of individuals who remain.