Distribution Of Interseismic Coupling Research Articles

Seismic cycle controlled by subduction geometry: novel 3-D quasi-dynamic model of Central Chile megathrust

SUMMARY Subduction earthquakes show complex spatial and temporal rupture patterns, exhibiting events of varied sizes, which rupture distinct or overlapping fault segments. Elucidating first-order controlling conditions of rupture segmentation and return periods of large earthquakes is therefore critical for seismic and tsunami hazard estimations. The Chilean subduction zone frequently hosts several Mw > 8 earthquakes, with heterogeneous recurrence rates and locations. Here, we implement 3-D quasi-dynamic rate and state frictional models to investigate the role of plate interface geometry on the distribution of interseismic coupling and coseismic ruptures in Central Chile. First, we develop synthetic-parametric models that show how dip and strike variations may increase the probabilities to produce partial seismic barriers, which tend to avoid the production of large earthquake ruptures and modulate rupture lengths. Then, we simulate the subduction seismic cycle processes on Central Chile (25°S–38°S), imposing depth-dependent frictional properties on a realistic non-planar 3-D subduction interface geometry. Similar to results obtained for synthetic-parametric models, after 5000 yr of simulation, regions with abrupt dip or strike changes increase the probabilities of stopping coseismic propagation of simulated Mw 8.0–9.0 earthquakes. Our simulated earthquake sequences on the Central Chile subduction zone delimit rupture areas that match geometrical interface features and historical earthquakes, results that point to the crucial role of fault interface geometry on seismic cycle segmentation along strike.

Interseismic Coupling, Asperity Distribution, and Earthquake Potential on Major Faults in Southeastern Tibet

AbstractSoutheastern (SE) Tibet is one of the most seismically active regions in mainland China, but the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling that quantifies seismic hazard is unknown along most major faults. In this study, we constructed an elastic block model to invert Global Positioning System data for slip rates and locking coefficients along 20 major faults in SE Tibet. Our results identify 27 strongly coupled fault segments with locking coefficients >0.5, defined as potential seismogenic asperities, extending laterally for 36–330 km. Quantitative calculations of seismic moment budgets on these seismogenic asperities indicate that they are capable of generating Mw 6.4–7.7 earthquakes in the next few decades, of which the Anninghe, Daliangshan and Red River faults have the potential for Mw ≥ 7.5 earthquakes. The interseismic coupling model provides a component for probabilistic analysis of future seismic hazards in densely populated Southwest China.

The Role of Stress Barriers on the Shape of Future Earthquakes in the Mentawai Section of the Sunda Megathrust

The underlying causes of apparent barriers to rupture propagation on earthquake faults that appear strongly to constrain rupture shape and slip distributions, are the ongoing subject of research. Preseismic stress shadows on the rupturing segment, resulting from the history of slip preceding a great earthquake, are proposed here as one possible cause of such barriers. We focus on the Mentawai section of the Sunda megathrust since it is unique in having its long seismic history recorded in shallow water corals, as well as detailed slip distributions for events in the last ?seismic cycle?, and modern geodetic information on the distribution of interseismic coupling. We show that stress shadows left by the moment magnitude (M) 8.7 1797 and M = 8.9 1833 earthquakes on the section persist up to today, and likely acted as barriers to the ruptures in 2007 (M = 8.4 and 7.9) and 2010 (M = 7.8), potentially resulting in much smaller earthquakes than would have occurred otherwise.

Distribution of Interseismic Coupling Along the North and East Anatolian Faults Inferred From InSAR and GPS Data

AbstractThe North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has produced numerous major earthquakes. After decades of quiescence, the Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake (24 January 2020) has recently reminded us that the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is also capable of producing significant earthquakes. To better estimate the seismic hazard associated with these two faults, we jointly invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling along the eastern part of both the NAF and EAF. We perform the inversion in a Bayesian framework, enabling to estimate uncertainties on both long‐term relative plate motion and coupling. We find that coupling is high and deep (0–20 km) on the NAF and heterogeneous and superficial (0–5 km) on the EAF. Our model predicts that the Elazığ earthquake released between 200 and 250 years of accumulated moment, suggesting a bicentennial recurrence time.

Elastic block and strain modeling of GPS data around the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Based on the dense GPS velocity field in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau from 1999 to 2016, we have produced the deformation and strain characteristics of the Haiyuan fault and the Liupanshan fault. Estimated long-term slip rate along the Haiyuan-Liupanshan fault zones show a gradual decrease from 6.4 ± 1.6 mm/yr at the Tuolaishan fault to 2.9 ± 1.2 mm/yr at the Southern Liupanshan fault. Left-lateral thrusting movement was inverted for the Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault (XS-TJS), which has an average slip rate of 2.1 ± 3.4 mm/yr during the study period. We also calculated the heterogeneous distribution of interseismic coupling along the fault zones. Our result also shows the locking depth of the Tianzhu seismic gap is ∼22 km. The slip rate deficit, the seismic moment accumulation rate, and the Coulomb stress accumulation rate are high on the fault planes, whereas the second invariant of the strain rate is low at the surface. The Liupanshan fault is locked to a depth of ∼23 km, and the corresponding seismic moment accumulation rate on the fault plane is high, while the strain rate at the surface is low. The accumulated strain along the Tianzhu seismic gap and the Liupanshan fault could be balanced by earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw7.9 and Mw7.4, considering the absence of large earthquakes over the last 1000 years and 1400 years respectively. The Haiyuan segments had ruptured during 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, and the estimated locking depth for period 1999–2016 is 5–10 km. Its seismic moment accumulation rate at depth is low and the strain rate at the surface is high. Our result indicates that 70% of the strike-slip along the Haiyuan segments transforms into thrusting along the Liupanshan fault, while the remaining 30% is related to the orogeny of the Liupanshan. For slip between the Haiyuan fault and the XS-TJS, about 27–34% of the slip is partitioned on the XS-TJS.

Implications of the GreatMw 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake on the Understanding of Natural Hazard in Taiwan and New Zealand

Estimating the hazard resulting from great earthquakes on active subduction megathrusts is plagued with difficulties, yet it is necessary in populated areas proximal to active subduction. In practice, we are increasingly including knowledge of the physical fault system and mechanics into estimations of seismic hazard, aided by rapid advances in understanding the diverse spectrum of megathrust behavior. In general, statistical approaches to estimating hazard are hampered by the paucity of observed data and deterministic approaches involve large uncertainty. In Taiwan and New Zealand, megathrust‐hazard estimates are further complicated by the relatively short history of seismic observations and lack of any historical, local, or regional great earthquakes to use as analogs. Thus, it is useful to consider what insights can be gained from observations of the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, Japan. Tectonic similarities in Japan, Taiwan, and New Zealand (Fig. 1), including the complexity of subduction geometry, rapid convergence, and similarity in age and temperature of the incoming plate, make the comparison of these three subduction zones appealing. It is worth noting that unless complicated linking of multiple and disparate faults is invoked, rupture extent in all three regions is clearly limited on one side by local changes in the geometry of the convergent margins. Perhaps the most striking similarity between Tohoku and the southern Hikurangi (Fig. 1) is the distribution of interseismic coupling as determined from the inversion of Global Positioning System (GPS) data (Nishimura et al. , 2004; Wallace et al. , 2004; Suwa et al. , 2006; Hashimoto et al. , 2009). Similarities include both the down‐dip extent of locking and strong along‐strike variations. Figure 1. Tectonic maps of (a) Japan, (b) New Zealand, and (c) Taiwan. Shading on (a) and (b) shows interseismic plate coupling. Green contours in (a) show slip distribution from Tohoku‐Oki in 8 m intervals. Green contours in (b) show Tohoku‐Oki slip overlain …

Rupture process of theMw = 7.9 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Nepal): Insights into Himalayan megathrust segmentation

We investigate the rupture process of the 25 April 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw = 7.9) using a kinematic joint inversion of teleseismic waves, strong motion data, high-rate GPS, static GPS, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. The rupture is found to be simple in terms of coseismic slip and even more in terms of rupture velocity, as both inversion results and a complementing back projection analysis show that the main slip patch broke unilaterally at a steady velocity of 3.1–3.3 km/s. This feature likely contributes to the moderate peak ground acceleration (0.2 g) observed in Kathmandu. The ~15 km deep rupture occurs along the base of the coupled portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust and does not break the area ranging from Kathmandu to the front. The limitation in length and width of the rupture cannot be identified in the preearthquake interseismic coupling distribution and is therefore discussed in light of the structural architecture of the megathrust.

High interseismic coupling in the Eastern Makran (Pakistan) subduction zone

Estimating the extent of interseismic coupling along subduction zone megathrusts is essential for quantitative assessments of seismic and tsunami hazards. Up to now, quantifying the seismogenic potential of the eastern Makran subduction zone at the northern edge of the Indian ocean has remained elusive due to a paucity of geodetic observations. Furthermore, non-tectonic processes obscure the signature of accumulating elastic strain. Historical earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 7 have been reported. In particular, the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake resulted in a significant tsunami that swept the shores of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. A quantitative estimate of elastic strain accumulation along the subduction plate boundary in eastern Makran is needed to confront previous indirect and contradictory conclusions about the seismic potential in the region. Here, we infer the distribution of interseismic coupling on the eastern Makran megathrust from time series of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images acquired between 2003 and 2010, applying a consistent series of corrections to extract the low amplitude, long wavelength deformation signal associated with elastic strain on the megathrust. We find high interseismic coupling (i.e. the megathrust does not slip and elastic strain accumulates) in the central section of eastern Makran, where the 1945 earthquake occurred, while lower coupling coincides spatially with the subduction of the Sonne Fault Zone. The inferred accumulation of elastic strain since the 1945 earthquake is consistent with the future occurrence of magnitude 7+ earthquakes and we cannot exclude the possibility of a multi-segment rupture (Mw 8+). However, the likelihood for such scenarios might be modulated by partitioning of plate convergence between slip on the megathrust and internal deformation of the overlying, actively deforming, accretionary wedge.

Scenario Source Models and Strong Ground Motion for Future Mega‐earthquakes: Application to Lima, Central Peru

The 2011 moment magnitude ( M w) 9.0 Tohoku‐Oki Japan earthquake occurred in a region where giant megathrust earthquakes were not expected. This earthquake proved the difficulty in assessing seismic hazard by relying mainly on information from historical and instrumental seismicity. To help improve the seismic‐hazard assessment for such rare events, we propose a methodology to estimate the slip distribution of future megathrust earthquakes based on a model of interseismic coupling distribution in subduction margins, as well as information of historical earthquakes, and apply the method to the central Peru region, Lima. The slip model obtained from geodetic data represents the large scale features of asperities within the megathrust, which is appropriate for simulation of long‐period waves and tsunami modeling. For the simulation of a broadband strong ground motion, we add small scale heterogeneities to the source slip to be able to simulate high frequencies. To achieve this purpose, we propose broadband source models constructed by adding short‐wavelength slip distributions obtained from a Von Karman power spectral density function, to the slip model inferred from interseismic geodetic data. Using these slip models and assuming several hypocenter locations, we calculate a set of strong ground motions for Lima and incorporate site effects obtained from microtremors surveys and geotechnical data. Our simulated average pseudospectral accelerations (period 0.3 s) are above ![Graphic][1] for wide areas in Lima, which may be critical in terms of damage of low‐ to midrise masonry and reinforced concrete buildings, which characterize the majority of buildings in Lima. [1]: /embed/inline-graphic-1.gif

Subduction zone coupling and tectonic block rotations in the North Island, New Zealand

The GPS velocity field in the North Island of New Zealand is dominated by the long‐term tectonic rotation of the eastern North Island and elastic strain from stress buildup on the subduction zone thrust fault. We simultaneously invert GPS velocities, earthquake slip vectors, and geological fault slip rates in the North Island for the angular velocities of elastic crustal blocks and the spatially variable degree of coupling on faults separating the blocks. This approach allows us to estimate the distribution of interseismic coupling on the subduction zone interface beneath the North Island and the kinematics of the tectonic block rotations. In agreement with previous studies we find that the subduction zone interface beneath the southern North Island has a high slip rate deficit during the interseismic period, and the slip rate deficit decreases northward along the margin. Much of the North Island is rotating as several, distinct tectonic blocks (clockwise at 0.5–3.8 deg Myr−1) about nearby axes relative to the Australian Plate. This rotation accommodates much of the margin‐parallel component of motion between the Pacific and Australian plates. On the basis of our estimation of the block kinematics we suggest that rotation of the eastern North Island occurs because of the southward increasing thickness of the subducting Hikurangi Plateau. These results have implications for our understanding of convergent margin plate boundary zones around the world, particularly with regard to our knowledge of mechanisms for rapid tectonic block rotations at convergent margins and the role of block rotations in the slip partitioning process.

Endogenous retroviruses and schizophrenia

Estimating the extent of interseismic coupling along subduction zone megathrusts is essential for quantitative assessments of seismic and tsunami hazards. Up to now, quantifying the seismogenic potential of the eastern Makran subduction zone at the northern edge of the Indian ocean has remained elusive due to a paucity of geodetic observations. Furthermore, non-tectonic processes obscure the signature of accumulating elastic strain. Historical earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 7 have been reported. In particular, the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake resulted in a significant tsunami that swept the shores of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. A quantitative estimate of elastic strain accumulation along the subduction plate boundary in eastern Makran is needed to confront previous indirect and contradictory conclusions about the seismic potential in the region. Here, we infer the distribution of interseismic coupling on the eastern Makran megathrust from time series of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images acquired between 2003 and 2010, applying a consistent series of corrections to extract the low amplitude, long wavelength deformation signal associated with elastic strain on the megathrust. We find high interseismic coupling (i.e. the megathrust does not slip and elastic strain accumulates) in the central section of eastern Makran, where the 1945 earthquake occurred, while lower coupling coincides spatially with the subduction of the Sonne Fault Zone. The inferred accumulation of elastic strain since the 1945 earthquake is consistent with the future occurrence of magnitude 7+ earthquakes and we cannot exclude the possibility of a multi-segment rupture (Mw 8+). However, the likelihood for such scenarios might be modulated by partitioning of plate convergence between slip on the megathrust and internal deformation of the overlying, actively deforming, accretionary wedge.