Distributed Generation In Brazil Research Articles

Assessment of the status and trends of photovoltaic distributed generation in Brazil: An in-depth approach based on big data processing

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) has been increasing substantially in Brazil. In this context, the present paper exploits a robust dataset provided by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) to evaluate the status and trends concerning PV DG. As of Nov/2022, such a dataset consists of more than 1,4 million lines (one for each system) and thirty columns (various information concerning the systems). For an in-depth assessment, three items are addressed: (i) the application of machine learning algorithms to estimate the installed power of individual systems based on other information available in the dataset, (ii) the application of forecasting models to predict the installed power of PV DG over time in Brazil and its regions, and (iii) the application of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to rank Brazilian states in terms of efficiency in PV DG deployment. While items (i)-(iii) present distinct specific goals, they use the same dataset and provide essential insights concerning PV DG in Brazil. In item (i), elastic net (EN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extra tree (ET), AdaBoost (AB), and gradient boosting (GB) are applied to select the most accurate algorithm. In item (ii), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWES), Bass diffusion model (BDM), and multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN) are applied. In item (iii), output-oriented DEA CCR and BCC are applied. Concerning item (i), results demonstrate that estimating the installed power of individual systems is not very simple. Nonetheless, the machine learning algorithms imply a significant accuracy increase compared to taking the dataset’s average as the estimation, especially the DT and RF algorithms with a coefficient of determination of 29%. Regarding item (ii), results demonstrate that the installed capacity in Brazil and its regions is expected to increase approximately linearly in the horizon of months but with weekly seasonal characteristics. Moreover, the most accurate model depends on the region, i.e., the ANN is superior for the Northeast (MAPE of 3.25%) and South (MAPE of 1.28%) regions, the HWES method is superior for Brazil (MAPE of 0.51%) and the Southeast region (MAPE of 2.26%), and the BDM is superior for the Mid-west (MAPE of 1.95%) and North (MAPE of 3.37%) regions. Concerning item (iii), results demonstrate that DEA CCR is more representative of the Brazilian reality since DEA BCC assigns several states as efficient, even if they showcase a very low installed capacity, particularly small states. DEA CCR indicates that Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso are the most efficient states in PV DG deployment relative to their inputs, closely followed by São Paulo with an efficiency of 95%. Furthermore, states located in the North and Northeast region require more attention from ANEEL since their efficiencies are generally low. A literature review demonstrated that this paper is the first of its kind in exploiting so thoroughly and robustly the dataset provided by ANEEL. Therefore, the paper is expected to assist ANEEL in the task of properly regulating the sector and also assist researchers and PV aggregator companies through in-depth insights. Moreover, the conducted procedures can also be applied to other countries with available datasets, thus ensuring high applicability for the research.

Socioeconomic and environmental consequences of a new law for regulating distributed generation in Brazil: A holistic assessment

Since 2012, prosumer compensation in Brazil has been based on net metering. However, a new law (Ordinary Law 14300/2022) was recently approved by the Brazilian Congress to decrease financial compensations for electricity injected into the grid. Studies on distributed generation system economic feasibility impacts in light of this new regulation are quite common. However, there is a research gap with respect to holistic assessments. This paper holistically analyzes the long-term consequences of this new law for regulating on-grid renewable distributed generation in Brazil. The methodology was mainly based on three models/techniques, i.e., the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic regulated electricity market model), the Bass diffusion model (time-series forecasting for integrated distributed generation), and life cycle assessment (an environmental impact analysis technique). These methodologies allow us to evaluate regulatory impacts on several aspects like the distributed generation business itself, market surpluses and welfare, regulated tariffs, social inequality, and the environment. These methodologies were applied to 35 Brazilian concession areas with available data. The results show that the new law successfully mitigates tariff increases and reduces social inequality, which are its main goals. By contrast, there are significant negative implications to the distributed generation business, market welfare, and the environment, since socioeconomic welfare losses at 2.12 billion (BRL/year) or 0.42 billion (USD/year), and emissions at 0.35 (Mt CO2eq/year) are estimated. Our assessment also shows that it would be slightly premature to implement this new law in most concession areas.

On the regulation of solar distributed generation in Brazil: A look at both sides

In the last few years, a considerable growth of rooftop photovoltaic systems has been experienced in Brazil, and according to the Ten-Years Energy Plan, developed by the Brazilian Energy Research Company, it is expected to increase even more in the coming years. As a result, the Brazilian Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) has been actively working in the sector, acting to smooth the impacts on Distribution Companies (DisCos) and prosumers. The two major negative impacts of the current Distributed Generation (DG) regulation in Brazil are the cross-subsidy for consumers to prosumers (i) since non-PV owners subsidize network costs that prosumers avoid paying, and the “death spiral” (ii) in which a DisCo lost a considerable share of the market continuously. To overcome these issues, the Brazilian government approved Law 14300, which includes a new compensation scheme for energy injected into the grid. In this way, the main objective of this paper is to conduct a technical-economic analysis of photovoltaic systems with this new structure by considering the impact on both sides: new investors in DG and DisCos. The analysis is compared against the previous regulation and the results proved a detriment to economic viability for prosumers as the amount paid in the Net-Metering Scheme increases, reducing the interest in the investment and the economic impact on the DisCos. On the other hand, when the amount paid in the Net-Metering Scheme gets reduced, it increases the interest of consumers to invest in DG and the DisCo's market losses. The present work quantifies these statements and indicates the appropriated regulation, which is in between these two extremes.

COVID-19 pandemic impact on micro and mini photovoltaic distributed generation in Brazil: selection and analysis of representative indicator

In the search for sustainability in the energy sector, photovoltaic solar energy (PV) has been highlighted as a solution to promote sustainable development. As PV technology expands, there is a need for studies to assess how the new market behaves in different scenarios with the consequent elaboration of different indicators. Following an interdisciplinary approach, and based on the epistemological paradigm of Design Science, the objective of this study was to analyse, preceded by selection and evaluation, indicators that reflect a possible impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Micro and Mini Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (MMDG) market in Brazil in 2020 and 2021. To do so, it was characterized through a systematic literature review - SLR, the state of the art about impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the photovoltaic market and photovoltaic systems indicators. Subsidized by RSL and supported by the core literature on the subject, the Photovoltaic Systems Monthly Installed Power Capacity indicator was selected. Then, the analysis of this was carried out, by means of feeding the indicator using a query in the open database of the brazilian National Electric Energy Agency - ANEEL. It was identified that with the initial general awareness, caused by the first peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the photovoltaic market suffered a reduction in the Monthly Installed Power Capacity, however, after this initial moment, the indicator recovered, suggesting a capacity for resilience and adaptation of this market, overcoming the difficulties and new challenges encountered, maintaining the pace of growth observed before the pandemic.

Constitutional aspects of distributed generation policies for promoting Brazilian economic development

State regulation in the electricity sector is essential for economic development and serves as a foundation for sustainability in the modern world. Several incentives have been put in place to stimulate energy generation through renewable resources in Brazil, starting with Decree 5.163 from 2004 and Normative Resolution – REN no. 482 from ANEEL (National Electricity Regulatory Agency), which established ways for consumers to generate electricity for their own consumption using renewable sources, and to distribute this energy back to the grid via a net-metering system. This article addresses the issue of electric energy control, generation, and distribution, and gives new perspectives from within the Distributed Generation (DG) system. The main objective of this article is to analyze the incentive mechanisms for DG in Brazil from a constitutional standpoint, which were set forth to promote economic development in the Federal Constitution of 1988. Furthermore, this study discusses the regulatory nature of the State, and changes to its role in economic intervention, discussing economic development concepts for how regulation might impact the development and promotion of DG in Brazil.

Solar Photovoltaic Distributed Generation in Brazil: The Case of Resolution 482/2012

The current electric generation in Brazil to meet its demand is based on centralized electricity generation, however, a new decentralized model is emerging in light of the recent advance of distributed generation (DG), among them, solar photovoltaic DG. The objective of this article is to present an analysis of the evolution of solar photovoltaic DG in Brazil, after the Normative Resolution (NR) No. 482/2012 of the National Electric Energy Agency (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica - ANEEL). The methodology used was based on an exploratory, descriptive and bibliographic study that supported an information analysis on the growth and prospects of solar photovoltaic DG market in Brazil. Hypotheses that current national regulations need improvements, and there is a great potential for expansion to solar photovoltaic DG have been taken as a starting point. Analyzes of the Brazilian socioeconomic context and the impacts after the NR No.482/2012 on the development of a national market for photovoltaic DG in recent years were carried out. ANEEL regulations have been periodically revised and updated in an attempt to induce a growth of solar photovoltaic market in Brazil. The results indicate a growth of solar photovoltaic DG in the country since 2012, with a significant increase in 2015. In conclusion, despite the growing evolution of solar photovoltaic DG in Brazil, there is a need for further regulatory improvements to boost this market. In addition, this article proposes that existing regulations could be improved in order to: a) reduce or exempt taxes on equipment of solar photovoltaic DG, as well as provide government incentives; (b) enable consumers to enjoy greater benefits by allowing the surplus energy to be sold to the distributor or the free market; c) exempt taxes for non-profit institutions, and d) include in housing programs and projects, the requirement of energy efficiency and solar photovoltaic DG.