Ecosystem Disruption Research Articles

Augmenting phyto-chemical and phyto-mineral profiling of moringa leaf extract: A contrastive study of solid-liquid extraction methodologies

The global food system is plagued by legitimacy and stability issues due to climate and ecosystem disruptions, contributing to widespread malnutrition. A significant portion of the global population experiences undernourishment, overweight, and micronutrient deficiencies from unhealthy diets. Addressing these challenges necessitates regular consumption of essential nutrients from plant sources. Among various crops, Moringa oleifera leaves are highly nutritious, offering essential vitamins, minerals, and medicinal properties. Whence research was conducted to inquire the proximate phytochemical composition and extraction efficiency of moringa leaf extracts across four extraction methods: maceration (E1), Soxhlet (E2), ultrasound-assisted extraction (UAE) (E3), and microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) (E4) using 70% hydro-ethanolic solvent. The study detected the presence of phytocompounds and phytonutrients at higher levels in UAE and MAE extracts. Recovery yield was highest for UAE (21.81±0.32%) than conventional extraction methods (6.24±0.08%). Both advanced extraction methods resulted in higher TPC (148.86±1.92 mg GAE/g and 137.65±4.49 mg GAE/g, respectively) and TFC (23.18±0.44 mgQE/g and 22.12±0.61 mg QE/g, respectively). Protein and ascorbic acid contents followed a similar trend, with UAE achieving 148.66±3.74 mg/ml and 620.25±1.42 mg/100g, respectively. Antioxidant activity measured by DPPH assay was highest in UAE (86.25±1.58%) along with the lowest IC50 values (11.62±1.58 μg/ml) in UAE. Furthermore, ICP-OES analysis revealed higher concentrations of essential phyto-minerals in moringa leaf extracts. Moreover, SEM analysis revealed significant morphological disruptions in the leaf samples, correlating with higher phytomolecules recovery. The outcome of the research is that novel extraction methods significantly enhanced the extraction efficiency and quality of bioactive compounds from moringa leaves, suggesting their potential in the development of nutraceutical and biofortified food products to expunge malnutrition.

Impact of extreme rainfall and flood events on harmful cyanobacterial communities and ecological safety in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin, China

Globally, climate change has intensified extreme rainfall events, leading to substantial hydrological changes in aquatic ecosystems. These changes, in turn, have increased the frequency of harmful algal blooms, particularly those of cyanobacteria. This study examines cyanobacterial community dynamics in the Baiyangdian Lake Basin, China, after heavy rainfall and flooding events. The aim was to clarify how such extreme hydrological events affect cyanobacterial populations in floodplain ecosystems and assess related ecological risks. The results demonstrated a significant increase in cyanobacterial diversity, exemplified by an increase of the Shannon diversity index from an average of 1.7 to 2.1 (p < 0.05). Following heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding, the average relative abundance of cyanobacteria in the microbial community increased from 7.59 % to 9.62 %, along a notable rise in the abundance of harmful cyanobacteria. The community structure exhibited notable differences after flooding, showing an increase in species richness, but a decrease in community tightness and clustering, as well as a reduction in niche overlap among harmful cyanobacteria. Environmental factors such as dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and pH were identified as crucial predictors of harmful cyanobacterial community differences and abundance variations resulting from flooding. These findings provide a critical framework for predicting ecological risks associated with the expansion of bloom-forming cyanobacteria in large shallow lake basins, particularly under intensified rainfall and flooding events. This insight is essential to anticipate potential ecological disruptions in sensitive aquatic ecosystems.

Climatic changes and their impact on living organisms

One of the issues that the world is currently concerned about is climate change. Climate change and its impact on the living world are of even greater concern to the world community. The recent changes in the atmosphere and unstable weather conditions are felt not only in Azerbaijan but also in many countries of the world. From numerous studies conducted over the last five years, it has become known that over the last hundred years, the average temperature on Earth has increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius (Mammadov, Khalilov, 2006: 222; 318). However, anthropogenic factors are mainly involved in the temperature rise. And the basis of anthropogenic factors are gases, nitrous oxide, nitrogen oxide, chlorofluoride compounds, carbon, methane, etc., causing thermal effects. For this reason, blizzards, thunderstorms, droughts, floods, and heavy rains, which are occurring everywhere, have intensified. Whereas in the oceans the water surface has warmed to a depth of 1,000 meters, this has recently changed to a depth of 2,000 meters. This leads to the formation of hot streams. Climate underlies all changes in general. These processes are also taking place in Azerbaijan. Only for the last hundred years has the average annual temperature on the territory of Azerbaijan increased by 0.4-1.3 degrees. Also, the number and strength of floods in mountain rivers in Azerbaijan increase every year. The factors influencing temperature changes in Azerbaijan are the Caspian Sea and the Greater and Lesser Caucasus Mountains. The presence of the Caspian Sea mitigates the effects of climate change in Azerbaijan (Kurayev, 2006: 16). There are also changes that occur independently of human activity. These changes fundamentally affect the processes occurring in the atmosphere and the health of living organisms, including humans. Increased solar activity, displacement of the Earth, the Moon, and other planets, methane entering the atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, etc. are examples of this. One of the most pressing problems on Earth is global warming and its complications. Global climate variability is based on the inexorable rise in temperature. Warming leads to climate change, ecosystem disruption, extreme weather variability, sea level rise due to melting ice, and loss of biodiversity. This has a negative impact on human health, agricultural and food security, and the economy. To this purpose, our state is fully prepared for COP-29, the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which it will host in 2024. All these activities will contribute in the near future. The different interactions of climate-forming factors in the world give rise to a rather large diversity of climates. The recent decrease in the amount of precipitation may lead to desertification in some areas of our republic.

Biotransformation of enrofloxacin-copper combined pollutant in aqueous environments by fungus Cladosporium cladosporioides (CGMCC 40504).

The combined pollution of antibiotics and heavy metals in aqueous environments increases the risk of aquatic ecosystem disruption and the complication of pollutant management. Here, a fungus Cladosporium cladosporioides 11 (CC11) isolated from aquaculture pond sediments possessed effective capacities to biotransform the combined pollution of enrofloxacin (ENR) and copper ion (Cu). ENR and Cu were considerably abated by CC11, and the presence of Cu (30mg/L) promoted the biotransformation efficiency of ENR. The biotranformation of ENR in ENR-Cu co-contamination was associated to ligninolytic enzyme action. The expression of ligninolytic enzymes was enhanced by ENR and ENR-Cu combined pollution. And the increased activities of ligninolytic enzymes confirmed the significant role of enzymatic transformation. Cu played an important role in increasing the expression and activities of ligninolytic enzymes. The expressions of many genes associated with transporters, phosphate assimilation, oxidative phosphorylation, hyperosmotic stress and pectin metabolism were significantly up-regulated when facing Cu-stress, indicating their important roles in determining Cu removal and enhancing Cu-resistance. Additionally, CC11 significantly biotransformed other antibiotic and heavy metal combined pollution. All these results contributed to the applications of CC11 in aqueous environments.

Marine carbon dioxide removal may be a future climate solution

The ocean has absorbed 25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and over 90% of excess heat, mitigating climate change but causing ocean acidification and marine ecosystem disruption. In addition to this natural role, various marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) techniques have been proposed, including biotic approaches such as blue carbon conservation and abiotic techniques such as ocean alkalinity enhancement. While biotic techniques are often preferred for their perceived ecological benefits, abiotic approaches offer higher sequestration potential and longer-term carbon storage. However, significant knowledge gaps and challenges remain, particularly in monitoring, reporting, and verification. As decarbonization progresses, mCDR could be essential for removing residual and legacy CO2 emissions. Further research is needed to assess the effectiveness, impacts, and social acceptance of various mCDR techniques, ensuring the ocean's continued role in climate mitigation.

EPCO-55. SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY IN THE TUMOR CORE AND INFILTRATING MARGIN OFIDHWT GLIOBLASTOMA

Abstract We integrated single-cell RNA-sequencing, Visium spatial transcriptomic, and Xenium in situ transcriptomic data to identify differences in cell composition between the tumor core and infiltrating edge in IDHWT glioblastoma (GBM). Using CellTrek, an algorithm that maps single cells to their most-likely locations in spatial transcriptomic data, we identified extensive spatial organization in GBM. Cell mapping revealed distinct regions enriched for tumor, immune, endothelial, neuronal, and glial cells. These were associated with the location of the tissue sample – edge regions were enriched for neurons and glia (as expected), while core regions were enriched for tumor cells and infiltrating immune cells, particularly macrophages. Within the core samples, the tumor and immune cells tended to occupy distinct spatial niches. Spatial clustering of mapped tumor cells across all samples revealed five spatially segregated tumor cell states, each associated with specific biological processes, including (1) histone methylation, (2) proliferation, (3) wound-healing, EMT, and antigen presentation, (4) hypoxia response, and (5) stem cell differentiation. These tumor cell states exhibited preferential colocalization with specific non-malignant cell types. For instance, antigen-presenting/wound-healing tumor cells tended to colocalize with diverse immune cells, while stem-like tumor cells tended to reside in neuron-rich regions at the tumor edge. Next, to identify ligand-receptor interactions governing this spatial organization, we analyzed known ligand-receptor pairs within all three data types. This revealed known and novel mediators of tumor cell interactions with vasculature, lymphoid cells, myeloid cells, neurons, and glia. While some interactions were shared across all tumor cell states (e.g. all tumor cell states interacted with myeloid cells via APP/CD74 interactions), others were specific to particular tumor cell states (e.g. wound-healing/antigen-presenting tumor cells interacted with macrophages via CSF1/CSF1R, while proliferating and stem-like tumor cells interacted with neurons through multiple known NRXN/NLGN interactions). These interactions suggest potential targets for clinical disruption of the tumor ecosystem.

AI-powered IoT and UAV systems for real-time detection and prevention of illegal logging

Illegal logging poses a significant threat to environmental conservation, contributing to deforestation, ecosystem disruption, and economic losses. Traditional detection methods, such as ground patrols and satellite imagery, are often ineffective, expensive, and time-consuming. This paper introduces a novel Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)-based IoT system for chainsaw noise detection and prevention. The system uses low-cost IoT nodes with microphones and microcontrollers to detect chainsaw sounds via a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. These nodes reduce power consumption, allowing the battery to last at least 8 years. Detected chainsaw sounds are transmitted to a LoRaWAN gateway and forwarded to a cloud server. The cloud server processes the data and dispatches a drone equipped with a camera to the site. The drone streams live video to the cloud, where AI algorithms analyze the footage for human presence. If detected, the drone activates sound and light alarms to deter illegal logging. Experimental results show that IoT nodes can detect chainsaw sounds up to 100 m, with the CNN model achieving an accuracy of 99.37 % and a loss of 0.0185. Comparisons with Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and SVM demonstrated the superior performance of CNN. This UAV-IoT system offers a fast, reliable, scalable, and real-time solution for detecting and preventing illegal logging. Leveraging advanced AI and IoT technologies, this system enhances environmental monitoring and conservation efforts. It represents a significant step forward in the fight against illegal logging, providing a practical, effective, and sustainable solution.

Integrated approach for sustainable management of drilling residues using stabilisation and solidification techniques

Drilling operations, a critical phase in oil and gas extraction, generate substantial amounts of drilling fluids and cuttings containing hazardous materials, including heavy metals and hydrocarbons. If not managed properly, these by-products can cause severe environmental damage, such as soil contamination, water pollution, and disruption of ecosystems. As global efforts emphasize the importance of sustainability and environmental conservation, finding effective solutions for managing drilling waste becomes crucial.This study focuses on the treatment and recycling of drilling mud generated from the Zarzaitine oil fields, located in the Illizi basin, 30 kilometers east of In Amenas. The adopted methodology relies on stabilization and solidification (S/S) techniques, which are widely used to reduce the volume and toxicity of hazardous waste. These processes convert harmful drilling sludge into more stable and less toxic materials, minimizing the risks associated with its disposal.Implementing such solutions aligns with sustainable waste management principles in the oil and gas industry. By recycling drilling fluids and reducing hazardous waste, companies can meet stricter environmental regulations while lowering the environmental impact of their operations. Furthermore, the recycled products can sometimes be repurposed, promoting a circular economy approach.The findings of this research highlight the effectiveness of stabilization and solidification methods in mitigating environmental hazards. It demonstrates that proper waste treatment not only protects natural resources but also encourages a shift towards more environmentally responsible practices in oil and gas extraction. Through this approach, the Zarzaitine oil fields can serve as a model for sustainable waste management in the region.

Technical Overview of ISRO and NASA’s First Joint Mission: NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) Satellite

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission represents a groundbreaking collaboration aimed at comprehensively monitoring Earth's surface dynamics. Through the fusion of L-band and S-band radar frequencies, NISAR promises unprecedented precision in detecting subtle surface changes, ranging from ecosystem disruptions to ice sheet collapses and natural hazard occurrences. This paper explores the mission's objectives, technology, and significance in advancing our understanding of climate change impacts and hazard mitigation. The partnership between NASA and ISRO, culminating in the signing of agreements in 2014, underscores the international cooperation vital for addressing complex global challenges. With its targeted launch, NISAR heralds a new era in Earth observation, enabled by the fusion of cutting-edge technology and collaborative scientific endeavour.

1.G. Scientific session: Forecasting dietary habits trends, human and planetary health

Abstract Extensive research has elucidated that dietary factors are pivotal in influencing both human health and the ecological stability of the planet. Suboptimal dietary patterns are implicated in over 10 million annual fatalities attributable to non-communicable diseases. Concurrently, the agricultural sector, a major component of food production, contributes significantly to environmental degradation. This sector is responsible for more than a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions and utilizes approximately 50% of the planet’s habitable land. Moreover, it accounts for over 70% of global freshwater consumption and is a primary contributor to marine ecosystem disruption through nutrient runoff leading to ocean eutrophication. Despite these critical linkages, current global trends related to dietary practices show little alignment with the improvements needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals set for 2030. The existing policy framework and interventions lag considerably in addressing these concerns. Historical and ongoing discussions have repeatedly highlighted these issues, yet the allocation of resources necessary to counteract the pervasive influence of industry-driven marketing promoting less healthful dietary choices remains markedly inadequate. There is an urgent need to intensify dialogues and enhance the conceptual framework regarding the role of diet in sustaining global health and environmental integrity among public health professionals. Such measures are crucial for facilitating a shift towards more sustainable and health-promoting dietary habits globally. The EUPHA Food and Nutrition Section, the Chronic Diseases Section, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, aim to propose a joint workshop to share innovative research and activities held in the context of diet and environment. The workshop aims to provide new findings and stimulate the debate about the projections for the future of human and planetary health. Key messages • Human health and environmental preservation require an adaptation of dietary habits globally: are we going in the right direction? • Current evidence suggests that there is an wide area of intervention to improve actual dietary habits, reduce the environmental impact, and improve human health.

Analysis of Green Constitutions in Environmental Law Related to Spatial Planning and Balance of IKN Development in Indonesia

This study analyzes the implementation of the green constitution in environmental law concerning spatial planning and the development of the National Capital (IKN) in Indonesia. The Green Constitution emphasizes environmental protection as a human right, as stated in Article 28H of the 1945 Constitution. The research focuses on the challenges of IKN development in East Kalimantan, including the risks of environmental damage such as deforestation and ecosystem disruption. The Indonesian government is committed to maintaining 80% of the IKN area as green space, but effective implementation requires stricter law enforcement and greater involvement of local communities. The methodology used is a normative juridical approach through the analysis of applicable legal regulations. The results highlight the importance of applying environmentally friendly technologies and ecosystem restoration as efforts to maintain environmental sustainability amidst development. Collaboration between stakeholders, including the government, private sector, and community, is essential to achieving a balance between economic growth and environmental preservation. This study recommends strengthening environmental law enforcement, increasing local community involvement in the development process, and the use of technologies that support sustainable development.

Early Molecular Detection of Invasive Alien Plants in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas

Invasive alien plants represent one of the five major threats to biodiversity and the disruption of ecosystems. They are introduced through various routes, starting with commercial trade. Preventing their introduction is essential to avoid the spread of new invasive plants. In this paper, we propose a new early warning DNA barcoding tool for invasive plant detection. Eight invasive alien species of European Union concern (i.e., Ludwigia grandiflora, Elodea nuttallii, Myriophyllum aquaticum, Pontederia crassipes, Ailanthus altissima, Heracleum mantegazzianum, Impatiens glandulifera, Pueraria montana) were selected and analysed. A unique DNA marker for each species was identified and amplified using species-specific primers capable of identifying the presence of alien species. To verify whether the approach could detect the presence of alien plants in urban areas from lawn clippings, mixes with typical urban spontaneous plants and invasive species were tested. In all mixes, only the invasive species was identified. This rapid detection capability will enable environmental operators to intervene promptly to contain the spread of invasive plants before they can cause significant damage to the local ecosystem. This tool could have a significant impact on the protection of local biodiversity and the integrity of urban habitats.

Bridging the GAP: Probiotic Douches Redefining the Feminine Hygiene.

Vaginal douching is a centuries-old practice which is still in use, especially among adolescents. "Probiotic douches" are the vaginal douches that are formulated with probiotics and are intended to restore or maintain the vaginal microbiome balance. Probiotic douches are a new type of feminine hygiene product that claims to promote a balanced vaginal microbiome and improve overall well-being. However, the evidence supporting the use of probiotics for vaginal health is limited because of the variability in probiotic strains and dosages studied, and the lack of more comprehensive, long-term clinical trials. Most of the existing scientific literature on probiotics focuses on oral probiotic supplements and vaginal probiotic suppositories. Some potential benefits of probiotic douches include restoring a balanced vaginal microbiota, preventing, or managing infections, supporting local immune function, reducing odor and discharge, and enhancing overall vaginal comfort. However, it is important to note that these benefits have not been definitively proven and remain a subject of ongoing research. There are also potential risks associated with their use including disruption of the natural vaginal ecosystem by introducing foreign substances, risk of infection, and stability issues with the formulation that may lead to negative consequences. This review attempts to comprehend the critical need for robust scientific research to guide the safe and effective incorporation of probiotic douches into modern feminine hygiene practices, revolutionizing women's health, and well-being.

PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT: JURI KARYA ILMIAH BERTEMA PEMANASAN GLOBAL

&lt;em&gt;Global warming is one of the most pressing environmental issues of the 21st century, with far-reaching impacts ranging from extreme climate change to threats to biodiversity and human life. The increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and oceans, driven by human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, exacerbates this situation. Negative effects such as polar ice melting, rising sea levels, and ecosystem disruptions threaten the survival of many species. Growing global awareness of the importance of understanding and addressing global warming has led to various initiatives, including scientific competitions focused on global warming. These activities aim to educate the public and promote innovation in finding sustainable solutions to this environmental problem. In these competitions, the role of judges is crucial in evaluating the quality and relevance of the scientific works submitted by participants. Through community engagement carried out by the Management Study Program of Universitas Bunda Mulia in collaboration with SMA Kristen Tunas Bangsa Sunter Jakarta Utara, this competition successfully inspired and nurtured young generations in facing the challenges of global warming. The event included presentations, discussions, and Q&amp;amp;A sessions aimed at developing creative ideas and making a real contribution to global efforts in combating global warming.&lt;/em&gt;

The role of infectious disease in the loss of biodiversity

Discussion of the relationship of infectious disease and biodiversity loss most commonly is framed in terms of the impact of diminishing biodiversity on zoonotic diseases among humans. Less examined is the role of infectious disease as a direct driver of biodiversity loss through species declines, local extirpations, and global extinctions. Recent studies, however, suggest that infectious diseases in wildlife populations are emerging at notably high rates. The diversity of emerging infectious diseases, magnified by the likelihood that there will be an increased frequency of outbreaks over time, have raised concern that infectious disease may play a strong role in wildlife species extinctions. The purpose of this Commentary is to draw attention to the growing role infectious pathogens are having in wild animal biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption, changes which, in turn, rebound on human health and wellbeing.

Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Wildfires on Agricultural Sustainability—A Greek Case Study

Climate change and wildfire effects have continued to receive great attention in recent times due to the impact they render on the environment and most especially to the field of agriculture. The purpose of this study was to assess the synergistic impacts of climate change and wildfires on agricultural sustainability. This study adopted a cross-sectional survey design based on the quantitative research approach. Data were collected from 340 environmental experts using an online questionnaire. The results showed that extreme weather events such as heavy rains or extreme droughts negatively influence agricultural sustainability in Europe. The results showed that disruptions in ecosystems caused by climate change have a significant positive impact on agricultural sustainability in Europe. Furthermore, forest regeneration after wildfires showed statistically significant positive influence on agricultural sustainability in Europe. The economic impact of fire on crops, cattle, and farms can be estimated. This information can be used to develop and plan agricultural regions near fire-prone areas; choose the best, most cost-effective, and longest-lasting cultivar; and limit fire risk. It is also clear that increased wildfire smoke negatively affects agricultural sustainability.

Biotic and Abiotic Components of The River

This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the physico-chemical parameters of the Sarodha Dam in Kabirdham, Chhattisgarh, over three distinct periods: pre-autumn, autumn, and post-autumn of 2007. Key parameters examined include temperature, velocity, total solids, total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH levels, dissolved oxygen content, free CO2 concentration, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), alkalinity, chlorides, sulphate levels, and fish species identification. The research identified 36 distinct fish species within the dam, underscoring the biodiversity present. Historically, water has been a crucial resource for human survival and development, with rivers playing a vital role globally. However, pollution from sewage and industrial effluents threatens these vital water bodies, leading to significant environmental and health issues. Despite advances in water treatment, urban piped water often remains contaminated, resulting in waterborne diseases such as jaundice, cholera, typhoid, and gastroenteritis. Pollution impacts rivers through chemical degradation and disruption of ecosystems, highlighting the need for interdisciplinary approaches to monitor and manage water quality effectively.

Integrated Assessment of Disturbed Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing Technique

Introduction. Today, there is a need for a shared vision of restoration of disturbed ecosystems, which is defined as “the process of stopping and reversing degradation, leading to improved ecosystem services and restoration of biodiversity.”Problem Statement. The assessment and restoration of disturbed ecosystems has become especially relevant for the Ukrainian society now, as warfare has caused large-scale changes in environment and both short-term and long-term consequences for ecosystems in Ukraine.Purpose. Assessment of ecosystems disturbed as a result of warfare impact by remote sensing.Materials and Methods. Multispectral satellite imagery, ground truth data and ecosystems characteristics of study area have been used. Remotely sensed data processing, geospatial modelling, and mathematical statistics have been applied.Results. A warfare impact on the ecosystems of Ukraine has been overviewed. Possibility of using remote sensing methods have been considered; their advantages and disadvantages have been generalized. A demo example of the described technique for assessing the ecosystem conditions along the E40 highway on the west of Kyiv has been shown with the use of multi-time satellite imagery of very high resolution (0.5 m on the ground) between May 2020 and March 2022. The analysis of the obtained maps allows us to assess short-term changes in land cover: a decrease in the area of water bodies, coniferous and leafy plants, an increase in the open soil area. The ecosystem conditions map of the studied area enables identifying plots of high risk.Conclusions. Integrated remote assessment of the condition of disturbed ecosystems and geospatial analysis of corresponding risks are useful tools for the territory management. Remote sensing techniques are particularly important in the context of largescale warfare. In many cases, only remote sensing techniques can provide information on the condition of ecosystems that areinaccessible or dangerous for ground-based research. Currently, the proposed approach has been elaborated and tested over other territories, different ecosystems and other data sources. Completed and tested integral geo-information technology will be relevant for the post-war recovery of the territory of Ukraine. Further research should be focused on building a pool of quantitative models for probabilistic assessment of the risk of disruption of various ecosystems under diff erent conditions, as well as on obtaining an array of statistical data to increase the reliability of the resulting maps.

Assessment of Environmental Risks during the Implementation of Infrastructure Projects in the Arctic Region

The Arctic Zone of Russia (AZR), due to its significant potential, for the implementation of which infrastructure projects and strategic plans are envisaged, is of great importance for the country. Particular attention is paid to the transport and related infrastructure development. The implementation of such projects requires the creation and implementation of modern integrated solutions based on new technical and technological solutions. The development of new territories is accompanied by problems such as urbanization and the disruption of ecosystems, which will have a particularly negative impact on the Arctic zone. The situation is complicated by the fact that the work must be carried out in difficult conditions, which are associated with a large number of risks, including environmental ones. Currently, many types of businesses are characterized by a transition to the implementation of the concepts of green and blue economy, as well as ESG principles when building strategic development plans that include risk reduction. Achieving this goal is possible through an environmental risk management system. To create a suchlike system, it is necessary to identify the most significant risk characteristics of each type of activity, taking into account their negative impact on the environment, after which it will be possible to plan measures to either prevent risks or minimize their consequences. Taking into account the above, we plan to develop the concept of an environmental risk management system (ERMS) as part of the region’s development strategy implementation. To reach this purpose, identifying the main groups of environmental risks depending on the danger source based on the scientific article review results, systematizing concepts aimed at improving the environmental situation under different types of anthropogenic impacts on the environment, developing an algorithm for implementing an environmental risk management system depending on the risk type, and proposing a concept for building an environmental risk management system are needed. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that the main directions of negative anthropogenic impact on the environment are systematized, and possible ways to reduce environmental risks are outlined. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that when implementing such a system, it will be possible to manage not only risks of a certain category, but also monitor the situation as a whole, identifying the consequences for related areas.

Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar regions. HMA feeds ten great rivers, ultimately supporting more than 2 billion people. However, the threat of accelerated glacier melt, which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s, threatens water resources in the surrounding countries. Accurate predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate variability. Here, based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments, we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance, and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction skill. Real-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025–2032, where the surface warming will increase by 0.98 °C (0.67 to 1.33 °C; 5 % to 95 % range) relative to the reference period 1991–2020, which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during 2016–2023. The decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes, which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin waves. Accelerated warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4 %. This change poses unprecedented challenges, including potential water scarcity, ecosystem disruption, and increased risk of natural disasters, to HMA and surrounding regions.